Should we be believing these swings will change the market directions?
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I’m just guessing that the cycle low will occur tomorrow after the employment report. It could stretch into the middle of next week. But sometime soon gold will complete a daily cycle bottom and then it will rally. That rally will tell us if the bear market is over or not. It will have to get above $1347 before we have confirmation the bear is dead. If not then gold is still stuck in the same crap it’s been in for the last three years. Lower lows and lower highs.
Thanks Gary..
What manipulation?
Good thoughts Gary, and I agree that when we put in this low and then rally…..IF we can get above 1347 high of 1346.80 on July 10th {or the close at 1339 from July 11th}, then it likely won’t get much beyond there at first, and it will correct shortly there after and head back down. (I would guess to 1280-1275 since there has been so much congestion there in the past).
After the Gold retraces from the new short-term high, and falls into the high 1200’s, then this would be the place to buy for the long term. This would be a safer entry point, once we have already tagged a number above 1323, 1339, and 1347.
Personally, the 1382 peak from March 14, 2014 is the one that I really want to see taken out to be sure the Long Term Bull is back on track and the 3 1/2 year PM Bear is over. At this point in this intermediate rally since November, I just don’t know if there is enough juice left to get us past that point though. I’d be thrilled to see Gold get above 1339-1347 zone this time, because then it is likely just a matter of time before a return above 1382 and beyond. One step at a time though…..
I guess Gary believes that manipulators will follow his calendar.
Sorry…what manipulation, Lawrence?
Hope you are not the one thinking we have a free market in gold market.
Hope you are not thinking that virtually ALL commodities are being controlled from above because gold and silver are part of the group and they move with the complex. Please explain the Federal Reserves interest in suppressing the price of rice since the second half of 2011.
If you can answer than and make a reasonable case then maybe I will listen.
Birdman,
Re: your comment on rice…
IFFFF (and that’s a big if, I admit) successive heads of the Fed are big rice afficionados/eaters, then they found a way to eat cheaper ?
Just a thought, fwiw 🙂 🙂 🙂
LPG
Maybe I am getting goofy but this whole gold manipulation and conspiracy thing makes me crazy. The guys who claim it never seem to notice that almost all major commodities fell together and have been falling for several years. The gold bugs never look at the rice price now do they! I don’t think anyone has the power to move all those markets at once. They are simply too large and complex for management from a Central control center. Basically the conspiracy is bunk because it must also assume that currencies are being managed by a set of puppet strings too or none of it would work. I am not suggesting markets are free of course, only that the theory of gold being manipulated all the time is for the most part nonsense.
Central banking itself is nothing but manipulation. Manipulating interest rates = manipulation of ALL markets. I know that is not the kind you were talking about, but it’s absurd to suggest that the planners are above ANY kind of “price management.” It is and always will be a fact of life (and in BOTH directions). Complete control of markets will NEVER be a fact of life.
Actually PM is different with other commodities. Alan Greenspan famously said – Central banks stand ready to INCREASE the gold leasing to bring the price down if gold price rises. Larry Summers published papers documenting the need of suppressing the gold price in order to lower the interest rate. Otherwise investors will not stay captive to lend at low rate. Off course there are other overwhelming evidences. Even look at these vicious smash downs, a smart person should realize they are manmade. Too many coincidences, it cannot happen in real world. Whether you cannot prove it, you should know what it is. Gold started the down turn exactly on the start of QE3. This is defies logic. There is no explanation why.
If gold does not responds to inflation and money printing like it did for the last several years, we should not be in gold at all. Also commodities do not wove together all the time, sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t.
One example, gold rises and copper and zink fall. So it does not follow you all commodities move together theory.
No other major asset is as negatively correlated to the economy. That’s why it spiked 150% versus oil and 80% versus commodities in general since last summer.
It’s money and nothing else.
Good arguement Matthew. You charts may show some hard evidence to Bird. 🙂
“Manipulating interest rates = manipulation of ALL markets”
———-
OK, i think I see your problem now. You have mixed up policy with your whacky ideas of manipulation. Maybe you did not notice Matthew but we get regular access to FOMC meetings, minutes and Q&A’s where rates are openly discussed and rate setting itself is a major subject of discussion.
That is called policy. It is not a secret agenda or a conspiracy.
Not that it even matters. we are on the downslope of a repeating pattern of rate changes that goes back centuries and is an important part of the larger business cycle that would continue with or without the Fed’s interventions. I have pointed this out many times here and NOBODY amongst your type has EVER responded to that observation.
Some of you gold guys are stuck in today’s drama with no regard whatsoever for the historical record.
“Commodities do not move together all the time, sometimes they do and sometimes they don’t”. — Lawrence
——————————————–
Wrong Lawrence. You are dead wrong on that comment. Look at this chart for review please. I have a dozen more if you like. Commodities move together cyclically as a rule and gold now functions as a commodity. So does silver.
http://www.smartbounce.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/commodity-cycle.jpg
Bird, look at my comment above yours
Don’t have much time any more. Bird, conspiracy and manipulation do not mean the same. Conspiracy must be manipulation but manipulation may not mean conspiracy. The can manipulate in broad day light. They can be policy or intervention. It is official does not make it justified.
On February 5, 2015 at 11:42 am, Matthew says:
“No other major asset is as negatively correlated to the economy”.
———————————–
I was not talking about the economy Matthew. Please be more careful reading. What I said was that gold correlates well with commodities. See the link below and the charts that prove conclusively that gold follows along with the sector as a whole when it rises and falls.
Lol, yeah, let’s call it “policy!” That’ll legitimize the Marxists and make their intentions benevolent! Why didn’t I think of that?! ROTFLMFAO
Re: “I was not talking about the economy Matthew. Please be more careful reading.”
Please be more careful when you assume. I was pointing out a fact independent of what you think you were talking about.
Yes Lawrence, I saw your comments above mine. Sorry, but I am not moved. You have proven nothing. And by the way Matthew did not put any charts up to make his point either. You will need to work a lot harder to make your case…jaw flapping and bland unfounded assertions do not cut it with me.
I just give you a counter example. You are not moved, that is your problem. As a scientist, one counter example is enough.
“I was pointing out a fact independent of what you think you were talking about” — Matthew
————–
Then put your unrelated comment where it belongs, not as a response to what I wrote and which you are as usual unable to argue with.
You are a scientist? Ha Ha Ha….who the hell are you kidding? You sure are not a professional one with your random bits of illogical though and unfounded accusations.
Maybe you are a government scientist?
I am a Ph.D. in physics.
Do you mind I give you a physics problem to solve?
Don’t bother, you showed me quite enough already.
Goofy and crazy . . . yup, that’s what happens when you reject standards. “Differing weights and differing measures— the Lord detests them both.” Proverbs 20:10.
We don’t have a free market in anything and never have. All markets are manipulated and suggesting gold or silver is manipulated is about as meaningful as saying the sun rises in the East. Yea, it’s true but so what. All financial information consists of data that is either meaningful or meaningless. It’s either signal or noise. All discussion of “Manipulation” is noise. If you believe it’s true, how do you trade?
‘Gold is the most manipulated market in the history of the universe, I think I’ll go buy some.’ Or sell some.
What a great idea, I’ll buy or sell gold because the sun rises in the East.
Lots of things are perfectly true and perfectly meaningless at exactly the same time. Yes, gold is manipulated (Like GATA isn’t trying to manipulate gold) but who cares?
Anyone who watched gold go from $252 in August of 1999 to $1930 in September of 2011 who thinks the price was suppressed needs to retake that logic test one more time.
What time is the employment report tomorrow morning guys?
Glenfidish,
8:30am according to Marketwatch.
http://www.marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic
The usual I guess.
Best,
LPG
Thanks LPG,
The reason I ask is because once we get passed that report, it’s open field for gold/miners IMO. Nothing significant comes to light until ECB 18th. Options expiry 24th. Usually gold gets hit 3-5 days prior. Im thinking it can rally up to 17th-18th.
Thanks for these dates Glenfidish,
28th Feb for Greece is also a date I keep in my mind… but I am cognizant that things might get “sorted” before that time.
Best to you and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG,
Thanks for 28th.
Good luck as well.
Gary, there has been a lot of talk about the 7 year business cycle. Some cycles analyst’s beleive that Sept of 2015 or thereabouts is a risky time frame. Some folks attribute this to the biblical Shemitah year. What are your thoughts about this? Will this be a probable time for gold and silver to find its true bottom price? There are some crazy predictions out there swirling around so I wanted to get your take on it. If you start at Sept 2015 and go back in 7 year intervals there are some interesting events that take place near these 7 year benchmark intervals. Is this theory just superstition? Something to just laugh about around the water cooler while casually planning your next stock market purchase?
I am expecting a top sometime later this year. Just not before the Nasdaq hits those all time highs at 5100.
If you don’t mind me throwing in my two bits on this Glen….too many people are thinking of Shemitah for it to be valid anymore. It has become a Red Herring of an idea and a distraction. I would be careful making any bets using Shemitah indicators no matter how compelling the story has become.
Birdman. Gary pretty much answered my question about the 7 year cycle. He attaches pretty much no importance to it in and of itself. I personally will make no trades based on it. However, I am not a stock market investor either. I believe we are in for some market accidents in the near term future but I have no idea of course when this will happen. I like everyone else is waiting for a confirmed bottom in gold and we won’t know for a while except in hindsite what the bottom will be or when we will resume the bull market in the metals.
I have some orders in but no fills yet. 🙁
Matt,
Hui is in a triangle! Up or down in your opinion?
I was hoping one more chance to buy in? Possible later today or tomorrow?
Thanks
Up, but it can still come down to about 195 first without breaking out to the downside.
Matt,
That’s precisely the target i was looking for lol 195. Would that not form a right shoulder?
I do not see a shoulder from that move.
Gary,
It seems like the manipulation has come to an end. Would you agree with that? Any dip or smack down is being bought lately.
It is a big statement.:-)
One would like to think that over 26B$ in fines for JPM alone in this century would help to keep their fingers out of the cookie jar. The fines related to gold are only a small portion of that total however.
🙂
I just want to point out that gold is now trending down WITH the dollar and that it has been happening for the last nine days. So if the dollar has peaked for now (it has) and the Euro is going to rise (it will) then gold will not do well as long as this new correlation holds. You had best focus on crude which is also rising in tandem with Euros. That is the trade.
Canadian gold mining companies , part of the S&P Global Gold Mining Index at the 89-week EMA
Which is also very close to the 21 month (191.98) and 377 day (187.49) EMAs.
The S&P TSX Global Gold Index is not an indece per se, but a financial derivative, meant to corner all of the financial interest in the gold mining sector. You get real time information, instead of being updated on the close.
http://web.tmxmoney.com/derivatives.php?locale=EN&mobile=false
Thanks Fran Six, I didn’t know that.
MORE BAD ECONONIC DATA, U.S PRODUCTIVITY FALLS TO 1.8% FOR Q4, LABOR COST RISE TO 2.7%, U.S TRADE DEFICIT UP 17.1% IN DEC TO $46.6 BILLION, THIS IS THE HIGHTEST SINCE LATE 2012, AND JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE 11,000 LAST WEEK AND GOLD AND SILVER ARE DOWN……………………I DON’T CARE WHAT IS SAID ABOUT ALL THE TECHNICALS, ALL THE CHARTS AND ALL THE MOVING DAY CYCLES……..THIS IS NOTHING BUT TOTAL IN YOUR FACE MANIPULATION……….THEY WILL NOT LET THE PRICE GO TO 1300 OR ABOVE, THIS IS ALL THE FED AND OUR GOV’T’S DOING…………THIS IS DAILY CRIMINAL ACTIVITY UNREGULATED…………AND IT’S A CRIME !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“They” are us, Mark. Have you seen the sentiment numbers for metals? Better, but still not good. When the time is right for gold to move again it will. Just look at the charts. They are similar to any other charts of any other stock or commodity that has declined following a significant move higher. Nothing special about the picture at all. Gold just needs to bottom in its own good time and then you will get your reversal and buy signals. Until then, maybe buy something that is actually moving!
Bird, do you know how much gold our canadian government has left?
Canada is no longer a significant gold holder Lawrence (with the exception of the Canadian Mint which produces both gold and silver coins). The reason is that Canada is a commodity nation where one of the major exports are oil. As you know, oil functions as a substitute for gold from an investment and inflation perspective and as such Canadian reserves (of black gold) are far in excess of what most other developed Western Nations hold. I don’t mean that oil is literally money of course but oil does substitute for the absence of gold reserves and so Canada punches well above its weight where store of value assets are concerned. Take a look at an article on the gold / oil relationship if you are in doubt.
The Relationship between Gold and Crude Oil Price – P. Radomski , 2012
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38141.html
That’s an idea Bird, short gold again maybe, the % profit is just so small, maybe Im greedy but I keep looking at risk versus reward.
Lawrnce, Ive red Canada sold along with Britain at Browns bottom, I havnt heard of Canada ever buying.
The gold is not enogh to fill one drawer of our PM. It is less than 2.5 tons. For the size of canadian economy, we should have a few hundred tons. I think they sold another chunk of gold coins a couple of years ago.
You talking about the 1912 stuff? I guess the mint found bags of 1912 gold coins, sold out by the time I found out about them.
I disagree Lawrence. See my post above. Canada does not need a single ounce.
I should type in my busy day. The idea of gold is instant payment when your currency loses confidence. Any country will accept gold as payment but not oil. This is still a common practice among central banks. Most European central banks store over 50% gold as foreign currency reserves. The reason central banks to store gold in other countries is to have instant market access. Oil on the other hand cannot fill this role. More gold you have, less likely other country will attack your currency and less chance they succeed if they do.
But anyway, I am just saying that our central bank is not prepared for any financial attack.
Lawrence, think about this just another minute. What is the worlds reserve currency? It is oil in fact and not dollars as so many allege. How do we know that? Because since we went off the gold standard we actually went on to an oil standard priced in dollars. What do you think the whole Petro-dollar deal was all about when Nixon closed the gold window and a deal was cut with OPEC and Saudi Arabia. The world is all about energy and what is in the ground that is money. We don’t call it black gold for nothing.
I understand your point. However, unlike one country with a government, the world is lawless and relationship among countries changes. Policy at one time may change very rapidly. In the world history, only one currency (two actually) which have been accepted as payment is gold. US and Canada may not like it and US does have upper hand once a while. However, it can never be able to force it on everyone. There are still many countries like Russia and China which can reject current system as they want. If US and Canada is any weaker, their currencies can be attacked, For example, in the very near future, the oil export countries can say we don’t trade on dollar alone, we trade on all major currencies. Then dollar dominance through oil is finished. Power shifts in the world but gold never go away. IMHO.
I UNDERSTAND ALL OF THAT……….MY ACCOUNTS ARE FULLY DIVERSIFIED…………..I’M JUST MAKING THE POINT, THAT WHAT EVER IS SUPPOSE TO HAPPEN, IS NOT…………THEY ARE GOING TO SEE TO IT NO MATTER WHAT THAT GOLD NEVER RISES WHILE THEY ARE HERE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!……………………..PERIOD !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think they just want to slap our faces and make us so frastrued and give up. They don’t even care to answer questions. All the inquiries to US and Europe central banks about their gold trading activities have met with deaf ear or out right words like we cannot tell you. But, as long as we take physical like what China and Russia does, the ponzi scheme will collapse one day.
THE MANIPULATION OF GOLD AND THE MANIPULATION OF THE STOCK MARKET ARE THE ONLY TOOLS OR BULLETS THE FED AND THE U.S. GOV’T HAVE LEFT…………AND THEY KNOW IT……………….BUT IT’S A SAD THING TO SEE………….AND THEY KNOW THAT TOO !!!!!
Gary:
U share similar views as Goldman….as they feel in the 3rd and 4th quarter Gold will become weaker than in the first half of the year.
I had to wait all day to buy back xop 10 cents from the bottom today – partial position. Was a mistake to sell yesterday as oil was just doing a routine correction and still looks to rally. Bought some SLV 10 cents from the bottom. Gdx did not correct so I could get back into a position.
Bird Say’s, maybe I am getting crazy but this whole gold manipulation and conspiracy thing makes me crazy, what do you mean makes you? I think you would fit right in on East Hasting street in Vancouver, are you sure you didn’t spend some time there when you were a banker.
Sorry, the first crazy should have read goofy!
I doubt he was a banker but it would be consistent with the state of affairs the world finds itself in if he was. To be blunt, it would explain why most western nations are screwed.
I feel the argument with Bird is more political than economical. Gold bulls like us, especially gold bugs, are by choice anti-establishment. Some people like Bird are pro-establishment. So he called me anti government just because I criticized the government leader with hard words. For me, it is what people say very often, for him it is untolerable. However, something untolerable like government and elites legalized wrong doing, he would feel it is supposed to since it is legal. So I don’t think we can convince him and he cannot convince us.
Agreed. It’s too bad that those who get a kick out of him don’t have high enough standards to be offended by his usual mode of operation. But it’s obvious enough why they can’t see right through him —they haven’t crossed the threshold of required knowledge.
Matthew, Only a banker reasons like Birdman.
You guys will never change. As the last members of the gold bug cult that have survived the declines in price and are still actively talking up the merits of precious metals you present a sorry spectacle of leadership for the alternate-money supporters and fans who are coming up behind you. You guys are supposed to be the leaders of the cult but you can’t string together a coherent argument that even a child might poke holes through.
Maybe Al can get some of those bright guys who live at Kitco to come and do a better job of representing gold and silver because you three obviously need a rest to catch your breathe.
The truth hurts!
You sure? I always heard the truth sets you free.
You can’t handle the truth, Banker!
Funny DT. That is not an insult though. You Toronto guys are all comedians.
Well, I think even Bird should agree that current debt and derivative ridden financial system is very shaky. The action by FED and central banks is creating super rich and taking wealth from regular folks. It will have severe consequences.
Well you are right about that, Lawrence. There is incredible wealth inequality in the world today. I am surrounded by signs of it each day and it is pretty shocking. I know its popular to talk about how US and Canadian median incomes have dropped in the past couple years but those anguished cries hardly move me at all. Over here salaried government workers start at 50 dollars a month. There is hardly an adequate explanation as to why Africans earn so very little at a time when the globe is awash in cash. But that’s just how it is.
Re: “There is hardly an adequate explanation as to why Africans earn so very little at a time when the globe is awash in cash.”
That is PRECISELY the comment I would expect from you!!! 😮 🙂
You might have to explain what you mean by that. Do you favour the distribution of wealth as it stands?
There IS “adequate explanation” for such disparity. That’s what I meant by that.
If you do not favor the distribution of wealth as it stands, then you should be OPPOSED to central banks and big/meddling governments and FOR as much freedom as possible.
Well I would wager they have a lot more freedom here than you have back in the US. So if freedom is the answer I can vouch it is not making people any wealthier in the big scheme. I would say you are completely wrong that this is the fault of Central Banks. The income disparity is just so severe it cannot be the fault of any single institution or group. It is fairly pointless explaining it to you though because you are such an inflexible thinker. So I won’t waste more time on you.
Also PRECISELY what I expected from you! You obviously can’t assess freedom.
Oh, I highly doubt that is “precisely” what you thought. Here is a chance for you to prove it though. Tell me what I am going to say next. 🙂 I will even be fair so if you are correct you win.
OK..here is the comment “***************************************************”
So what does it say?
TWEET TWEET, CHEEP , CHEEP, OR is the CHEAP, CHEAP……………….
Gary,
In your scenario are you saying “if” go where to go down to 1240 does it do it before market opens and when market opens would it be back up in the 1280? 1300?..
Im trying to get a clear understanding if we get hit does it happen during the open even if it brief. And if so do the miners head down one last time or they hold there ground?
Thanks Gary