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What this volatility means for the overall markets

February 5, 2015

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55 Comments
    Feb 05, 2015 05:02 AM

    Just wondering if Rick is watching uranium lately. Up a bit in 2015 but up quite a bit from its’ low in Aug. 2014. Cameco short position has gone from over 3% to under 1% in last 3 months.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CCO.TO

      Feb 05, 2015 05:20 AM

      Dan, I feel our uranium investors are lonely now. All the analysts seem exited this sector. Hope it turn out to be a big hit for us.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:22 AM

        Its like yelling down an empty hallway. (;-)

          Feb 05, 2015 05:47 AM

          At least I feel this market is relatively free, since nobody cares about it.

      Feb 05, 2015 05:09 AM

      Remember what I was saying the other day about a major impending bottom forming across the commodity sector. Uranium is part of the resources classes and so is also indicating that a change is not that far distant in the future. Why?….I don’t know, but it is happening anyway without regard to major changes in demand.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:24 AM

        So uranium will probably move with everything else and may not be a standout commodity. That’s okay because many mines will be profitable with a 20% rise in price.

          Feb 05, 2015 05:45 AM

          I think so Dan. The timing of individual commodities where they actually bottom and bounce will vary though but to me its fascinating that so many are clustering around lows not seen since 2009. This is strategically important to how we invest this year and what kinds of decisions we take. As I mentioned two days ago, if one primary sector (commodities) is rising then by definition another is in decline. It could be stocks or it could be bonds. While I cannot say for certain it’s my suspicion that bonds will start to sell off if the Fed raises rates. Just a little move is enough to send a whole lot of capital into resources. So by my way of thinking we are now getting very close to the time we will have a sectoral rotation and it is then that resources will benefit. Not because the world is growing and demand is on the rise but because there is so much capital flowing that can move smaller markets in a very big way. I was kind of hoping the guys would address this subject but they seem resistant to accepting what I am saying.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:00 PM

            Bird, it is very easy to explain why commodities rise and fall together. I think James Dines covers it. It is a fact that a lot of funds invest in commodites as a busket. They will buy and sell these commodities together. This could include gold for some of them. But since gold is traded as currency as well, the movement is not in harmony with base metals and soft commodities all the time.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:56 PM

            I think uranium has the potential to break away from the commodity complex as Lawrence explains below but needs something outstanding to propel it like a supply/demand issue or a country that commits to nuclear energy.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:41 PM

            Here is a nice summary from the CEO of Paladin Energy in their Jan 19th, 2015 Quarterly Activities report. They’ve had some major financial drama in the downturn but they’ve been in the game for a while and are still major players, so I think they’ve got a better handle on the Uranium scene than most. Enjoy!
            URANIUM MARKET COMMENTS

            During the December quarter, the uranium spot price continued to demonstrate significant volatility, having risen from US$28.10/lb in mid-CY2014, reaching US$44.00/lb by the middle of November. During the latter half of the quarter, the spot price declined to US$35.50/lb, as near-term demand decreased and a limited number of suppliers reduced offer prices to complete end-of-year sales.

            The term contracting market showed a substantially greater volume for CY2014, exceeding 80Mlb as compared to around 20Mlb during CY2013. As has been the case in the recent past, the majority of the long-term agreements involved non-US utilities, which were predominately located in the Asia/Pacific region. US utilities tended to execute smaller volume agreements with deliveries confined to the mid-term market period (2015-2018), providing for limited deliveries post-2019/2021. TradeTech’s long-term U(3) O(8) price, which declined to US$44/lb-US$45/lb through most of CY2014, increased during the December quarter to US$50/lb at the end of November and held at that level to year-end.

            The Japanese reactor restart programme continued to make progress during the December quarter. In mid-November, the governor of Kagoshima Prefecture granted his approval for the restart of the Sendai 1&2 reactors (Kyushu electric Power Company), which are undergoing final documentation reviews and plant inspections by the Nuclear Regulatory Authority (NRA). Actual operations are now anticipated to commence during the first quarter of CY2015.

            Furthermore, the NRA released its draft report, which states that the Takahama 3 & 4 reactors (Kansai Electric Power Company) meet safety standards introduced subsequent to the Fukushima accident. The Takahama reactors will now move into the local government approval phase.

            Global uranium production totalled 155Mlb during CY2013. However, due to operational cut-backs at facilities such as Rossing (Namibia) as well as placing Paladin’s Kayelekera Mine (Malawi) and Uranium One’s Honeymoon ISR Mine (South Australia) on care-and-maintenance, CY2014 worldwide uranium output is expected to be reported at less than 150Mlb and perhaps close to 145Mlb.

            Declaration

            The information in this Announcement relating to exploration and mineral resources is, except where stated, based on information compiled by David Princep B.Sc who is a Fellow of the AusIMM. Mr Princep has sufficient experience that is relevant to the style of mineralisation and type of deposit under consideration and to the activity that he is undertaking to qualify as a Competent Person as defined in the 2004 Edition of the “Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves”, and as a Qualified Person as defined in NI 43-101. Mr Princep is a full-time employee of Paladin Energy Ltd and consents to the inclusion of this information in the form and context in which it appears.

            ACN 061 681 098

            For additional information, please contact:

            John Borshoff

            Managing Director/CEO

            bb
            Feb 05, 2015 05:05 PM

            Ive red articles saying the same thing Bird, couple years ago now I think.
            Some people describe it like water in a bucket sloshing about, rises on one side declines on the other.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:28 PM

            Uranium suffers from politics of every stripe and persuasion. The public fears it, the media misrepresents it and some environmentalists would like to see it outlawed for use altogether. It is probably not the best example to use to make the point but there is no question it is a resource and a commodity. I would like to take it more seriously but like a lot of others have already experienced your investment can go up in smoke on the news of a single incident like Fukushima, Three Mile Island or Chernobyl. So nobody likes that element of unpredictability when they take stock in a good mine no matter how good the outlook is for price.

            Feb 06, 2015 06:21 AM

            Birdman – All the more reason to be a contrarian investor in the space while the sentiment is so low, (if you have the nerves and vision for it). Nuclear energy is abut 20-25% of the overall base power load for the world, there are around 400 reactors in place, about 60 being built world-wide, and another 80-100 planned. That is not up for debate and is a fact whether people agree philosophically or not, and will not be changing any time soon, no matter how much whining about it there is. Japan will be forced to put their reactors back on line this year, and have been a mess ever since they turned them all off in fear. Many companies have only been working 2-3 days a week and there are strict power curfews in effect because out of a knee-jerk reaction to 3 reactors, they shut down their whole fleet of 40 reactors which was an over-reaction and has cost them dearly. They’ve had to import oil and coal just to make it the last 4 years and that has put them further into debt = not very smart.

            As a result of the silly low pricing, many of the suppliers have been taking projects off line for the last year, or putting development projects on hold, so there is a large supply deficit projected form 2016-2019, and prices only have one way to go —- Up. Most hard rock producers need a Uranium price in the mid $50s to $60s to be profitable and that is a fact. There are insitu miners like URZ, URG, and Uranium One that can produce in the mid $20’s but they only make up a small percentage of the market and cannot supply the world.

            The pricing must come back up or they’ll be no meaningful supplies. The arrangement where Russia traded in old nuclear warheads for nuclear supply ended in 2013 but the effects carried into 2014. That is clearly over now with all the tension, and the supply is working its way through the system, and energy companies will be coming back to the table this year and next to set up new pricing terms.

            Most of the long term contracts were set around $54-$60 in prior years and that is the only way companies have survived the 2011-2014 bloodbath, because they have not been selling their supplies at the spot price. However, many contracts expire this year or next, so the pricing will have to rise to meet the cost of production.

            The supply demand fundamentals are there, the infrastructure is already in place (unlike Nat Gas, Solar, Wind, Geothermal) and Coal is the real relic and polluter, but will still take time to phase out. The publics fear of nuclear is valid but largely misplaced. 3 accidents in the last 50 years, doesn’t change the fact that 100’s of millions of people depend on nuclear for their power everyday. Also, Oil/Gas/Coal are not going to win over the environmentalist agenda, where Nuclear gives off water vapor and no greenhouse warming gases. I believe this will be highlighted more and more as the Agenda 21 madness is pushed by the UN.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:50 AM

        Bird, you are really off base on this one. Uranium price is mostly have nothing to do with other commodities. When it peaked in 2007, other commodities went up another year and half. When other commodities languished in 2008, Uranium was rising!!! till march 2011 and crashed after nuclear accident. Got a reason to crash since Germany, Japan even China halted nuclear reactors and Germany and Japan sold their uranium stock pile for cash. Uranium is very unique in it movement. It is not in the commodity crowd. Also contract price is a lot higher, which is 90% of the sales.

          Feb 05, 2015 05:43 PM

          Good points Lawrence and Bird. Nothing is cut and dry in the uranium field as far as I am concerned.

          Feb 05, 2015 05:13 PM

          Agreed Lawrence & Dan. Uranium is a unique marketplace, it has bottomed, and will start the slow grind up from here. I took larger positions in the two new US insitu uranium miners – URG – Ur-Energy, and URZ -Uranerz (getting acquired by UUUU – which will make the new Energy Fuels the biggest US producer). Cameco and Areva as the biggest majors in the space, and while very undervalued, they won’t have the multiples of the mid-tiers and juniors as this space comes back alive.

          The mid-tiers are Uranium One (now privately owned by the Russian conglomerate ARMZ), Paladin (PALAF), Denison (DNN), Uranium Resources (URRE), Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), and UEX Corp (UEX).

          There are some other exciting explorers in the space with great projects like Fission (FCUUF) or Laramide (LMRXF) that are worth watching as well.

          2015 will be the beginning a huge 3-5 year Uranium Bull. China is not on hold any more and is building reactors like crazy, and the MiddleEast is building nuclear reactors, and the US & Russia have made deals with many South Amercian and Asian countries to assist them with new reactors. Japan will be restarting a few of its reactors in the next few months. Germany was not a major player in Uranium anyways. France is a big player in this space, but the US, Russia, China and eventually India will the biggest players.

          Lastly, all the environmentalists are finally starting to realize that Nuclear energy gives off water vapor aka steam as it’s by project, not soot, smog, and poisonous fumes like coal, oil, and gasoline, and it doesn’t destroy ecosystems like dams. Solar and Wind are great but only 1-2% of the power grid at this time, and many environmentalists even block people from building them, so you can’t win. The fact is that Nuclear makes up about a fifth of the power grid, and is the answer for many emerging countries to meet their base power requirements. Coal is starting to be phased out, and Nat Gas is starting to be phased in, but those will be gradual changes that take decades. Uranium’s time to shine is the next 3-5 years.

          For the haters – yes Fukushima was absolutely a rare and horrible disaster. Many are upset, and a little warry, and rightfully so – it was mess, and old plant, a horrible design with the back up generators in the basement below sea level, and spent fuel rods in the attic), and a terrible cleanup operation. What a cluster*&%$. But most of the new plants would not have fared so badly, most electric companies do a better job of designing backup plans, and there are many new ideas coming into the space to use Thorium (less radioactive waste) and even a company IBC Alloys (IAALF) working with MIT and Texas A&M to use Beryllium coated Uranium pellets to burn at a much lower temperature and be more stable as a Nuclear fuel preventing meltdowns.

          I think the time to get into select uranium producers & good explorers that meet all the normal criteria for quality juniors. Just my 2 cents on the subject.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:35 PM

            I love investing in something like this when it is at its bottom in the stocks, the commodity prices are half of what they need to be for 80% of the miners and producers to be successful, and there is sentiment that has been absolutely terrible….just terrible. Anybody noticing that 2011-2014 were the blood in the streets years in this sector, and barely anyone has been willing to touch it with a 10 ft pole. yet every day millions of people get the power for their electric cars, smartphones, and refrigerators from Nuclear power safely and clean powered. Anyone feeling a bit contrarian?

            Feb 05, 2015 05:48 PM

            Thanks Shad, great summary. You know more in this field. Good information. This is a sector with some of my dead money. 🙂

            Only thing is that I feel UEX is a smaller play. Even it has good resource, it is not producing actively. I also has two uranium plays, one is Pinetree capital and the other Jet Energy, these were both Grandich’s recommendation. I lost quite a lot in PNP but not much in JET (former CXX). I could not see how feasible they are but I am holding them.

            Good luck to all of us.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:50 PM

            I do own Cameco, Paladin and Denison as my major holdings.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:06 PM

            Wise on the Cameco, Palladin, and Denison. I would recommend UUUU (currently via the shares of URZ at a discount to UUUU due to the planned transfer ratio of .255 in June merger).

            Cameco is biggest and will outlast any downturn and is the 800 lb. gorilla, but doesn’t have as much percentage upside. Denison is solid, has been a player for decades, and buys and sells assets regularly to keep it fresh. Denison also helps with mine reclamation and environment clearance to decommission mines, which will always be in need. Denison is how Energy Fuels (UUUU) – my ultimate favorite pick at todays pricing, got the white mesa mill – the only – I repeat only…. conventional Uranium mill in the USA (that’s called a monopoly) and there are 2 more in N. America.

            Paladin has been through the ringer, and many have given up on them, but I think they’ll survive. They just gave away part of the company ownership to the Chinese, but that was wise to survive and live to fight another day. They are a little better financial footing, have their Kayelekera Mine is on care and maintenance due to the pricing environment, but they just stated in January that they are going to release as PEA to get the mine up and running again when the pricing gets up north of $50-$60. They’ve been in the space a while and are a big supplier, but had bad rain storms that messed them up post Fukushima, some fatalities, missed guidance, and hit rock bottom. However, I think they are now a turn-around story and have their ducks in a row to make a gradual comeback.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:24 PM

            Finally I got some uranium expert. Can you comment on my two losers PNP and JET on Toronto. I feel PNP is good financial company and it seems decimated. It NAV is a lot higher at around 70 cents. JET is in an idle mode but still hold good properties.

            Any thoughts? I intended to use JET as a gamble but not PNP. I have been holding them since 2009 even thought I traded several times.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:37 PM

            Thanks Shad, those were helpful comments. I appreciate your optimism. I like the Uranium sector too but have not really had luck with it and prefer to leave it to others.

            Feb 06, 2015 06:30 AM

            Lawrence, I don’t know anything about JET, but with Pinetree Capital (PNP) or in US (PNPFF), they are a venture capitalist firm with their fingers in many different pies in the commodities and energy and even bio-tech space and not a real play on Uraninum. They usually have placements as institutional investments in many startups that did not work out. Much of their portfolio was in Gold/Silver miners that had epic fails as well. Here is there corporate summary:

            Pinetree Capital Ltd. is a venture capital firm specializing in early stage investments in micro and small cap companies. The firm prefers to invest in the resources sector: uranium, coal, oil and gas, precious metals, base metals, potash, lithium, rare earths, molybdenum; energy related technology; technology; and biotechnology sectors. Pinetree Capital Ltd. was founded in 1992 and is based in Toronto, Canada

            Thanks for the response Birdman. I really don’t think sentiment could get much lower and Nuclear power isn’t a matter of wanting it or not, it is a flat out need for the base power load. The space has clearly bottomed and is showing the first green shoots in years.

    Feb 05, 2015 05:29 AM

    Light and Frisky!
    ya-man

    Feb 05, 2015 05:25 AM

    Notes From Underground: An Open Letter To the Davos Ruling Elites – By Yra

    We are in a period of great political uncertainty. The Greek election is a wake-up call for all the established elites and their sycophants who drink high-priced alcohol to celebrate every new IPO and record high made in global equity indices. The recent victory of Syriza is a call to arms by citizens that have grown tired of broken promises and inept leadership. Fringe parties achieving electoral success in a very short period of time is a critical sign of electorates moving away from the establishment as record-high unemployment has continued for several years and the continued pain of austerity has rendered the European middle class a group without hope. The leaders of Syriza have promised the Greek people that they would throw off the burden of massive debt payments while being enslaved to a policy of FISCAL CONTRACTION.

    http://yragharris.com/2015/02/04/elites/

    Feb 05, 2015 05:35 AM

    A couple weeks ago the Bank of Canada unexpectedly cut its rates a half percentage point and during that period also noted in their press release that they expected Canada to enter recession by summer of 2015.

    I thought that was interesting at the time because it is not the kind of blunt assessment that most here are used to when it comes to comments from the Federal Reserve. On the contrary there is a widespread belief that the numbers are rigged and the real data suppressed by a variety of government branches that accumulate the information.

    I am referring to employment data, inflation rates and GDP growth amongst many other major indicators of economic strength or weakness. Anyway, I put that story of an expected recession on the back burner until today when I came across an article by Mish Shedlock where he noted the yield curve in Canada is already inverted. See his article titled “Canada in Recession, US Will Follow in 2015″.

    And the conclusion….Canada has ALREADY entered a recession. We just don’t see it yet in the numbers because most of them lag and the facts will not become a certainty until months down the road.

    But that’s not the story I want to talk about here. What many Americans south of the border are probably much less aware of is the very close correlation between US and Canadian economic performance. This is commonly expressed in GDP growth or employment numbers as only two examples.

    To make a long story short, as a rule, when Canada is in contraction it almost always means the US is also in contraction just as when Canada is in an economic expansion we also note an expansion in the US.

    So it is an easy conclusion to draw (using averages) that if Canada has entered recession the same trend is already being manifest with our neighbor to the South. But don’t take my word for it. You need to look at some charts that make the historical connection crystal clear and maybe even a little damning for those who keep spouting nonsense from the big media outlets.

    So I have a great little article for you all to read and one that might be very helpful in understanding what is coming at us this year. It charts Canada versus the US for recessions and growth. The article is titled ” When The U.S. Economy Is On The Rise, Canada Has A God-Given Right To GDP Growth” and it was published by Business in Canada.

    The charts are eye openers even if the story is a few years out of date. We are talking historical relationships here though so that’s all you really need to focus on. The end analysis?….the US is heading into a recession…..or already in one.

    https://businessincanada.com/2013/08/13/when-the-u-s-economy-is-on-the-rise-canada-does-have-a-god-given-right-to-gdp-growth/

    Feb 05, 2015 05:36 AM

    THE BOTTOM LINE IS………..NO MATTER WHAT………..THESE GUYS ARE NOT GOING TO LET GOLD RISE ABOVE 1300, PERIOD…………..WITHOUT MANIPULATION AND ALL THESE BLACK SWANS AND BAD ECON DATA SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR, GOLD SHOULD BE WELL ABOVE 1400 AND EVERYONE KNOWS IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Feb 05, 2015 05:50 AM

      Please stop shouting, Mark. You are hurting my head.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:59 AM

        CUT THE BULL !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Feb 05, 2015 05:57 PM

          Ouch!

        Feb 05, 2015 05:41 PM

        I agree Bird. Reminds me of some other on this site.

          Feb 05, 2015 05:35 PM

          Don’t invoke the name JMiller. We will get no peace the second you say it.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:47 PM

            LOL

            Feb 05, 2015 05:50 PM

            DO YOU WANT TO SETTLE…..?????? We can settle right now on the weekend board.

            Message me only on the weekend show. Its in all your best interest I embarrass you there.
            Also, out of all due respect for Big AL.

            SEE YOU THERE !!! You won’t though…..you know why and so do I. BAWK…BAWK…A.O’s. lol

          Feb 05, 2015 05:00 PM

          I know who you mean. Bird is a saint compared to the other guy. OMG.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:37 PM

            The other guy is ..YOU.

            Go to the weekend board. Message me there with “anymore remarks” NOT HERE !!!!!!!!!!!

            OR YOU WILL NEVER GET RID OF ME !!!!!!! You hear me …. ..24/7/365 on your case.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:39 PM

            Yes, call me Saint Bird Lawrence. That’s OK with me.

    Feb 05, 2015 05:01 PM

    YOU THINK THIS A JOKE………..ARE YOU A CHILD……………….THIS IS VERY SERIOUS !!!!!!!!! WHAT, ARE YOU LOOKING FOR ATTENTION………….????

      Feb 05, 2015 05:38 PM

      If you want to be taken more seriously learn to communicate with your peers in a manner consistent with the general age group that you’re dealing with.

      Consistently writing posts in upper case bravado font trying to place an emphasis on your position actually deludes and minimizes your talking points to the point of those very talking points actually being ignored.

      Just a thought or two you might consider.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:42 PM

        +1

          Feb 05, 2015 05:35 PM

          Agree.

        Feb 05, 2015 05:13 PM

        NO I WON’T CONSIDER THAT, I WILL POST ON THIS BLOG IN THE MATTER THAT I FELL, AND IF YOU OR ANY OF YOU CLOWNS DON’T LIKE IT, THEN DON’T READ IT………I HAVE THREE SCREENS IN FRONT OF ME SO I SEE WHAT IS GOING ON WORLD WIDE………THE MANIPULATION OF KEY MARKETS, STOCKS AND INDUSTRIES IS SERIOUS BUSINESS, A ONE POINT MOVEMENT IN THESE MARKETS CAN MEAN THOUSANDS AND EVEN MILLIONS FOR INVESTORS…….SO AGAIN IF YOU DON’T LIKE MY DELIVERY THAN DONT READ WHAT I WRITE………..LIKE CLINT EASTWOOD SAID: YOU CAN JUST MOVE ON, SON……….WHEN I POST, I AM DIRECTING MY OPINION TO BIG AL, GARY, RICK THE DOC ETC, ETC………so I don’t care what you think, most of you respond on her like CHILDREN, do I complain……..NO……….everything on here seems to be A JOKE to you HODADS…….MOST OF YOU are living in a FANTASY WORLD………SORRY but I DON’T………JUST BECAUSE I’M A MAN and most of you ARE NOT, dose not mean that I will post what is not REAL and is not the TRUTH !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

          Feb 05, 2015 05:30 PM

          Mark,

          We are just trying to help you. You probably are not going to be listened to even by Big Al, Cory and the rest of the gang if you continue like this.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:36 PM

            LIKE WHAT………………………openly expressing myself…………..I’m not on here to win any POINTS !!!

          Feb 05, 2015 05:40 PM

          Ok Mark,

          Bad choices have consequences.

          Good day.

            Feb 05, 2015 05:51 PM

            Like Clint Eastwood said…………..

          GOOD FOR YOU…………..MARK…………SPEAK BOLD.., SPEAK YOU MIND…..everyone has a right to be heard…………….jmho……..plus I have seniority rights as far as I can tell…………………..

    Feb 05, 2015 05:54 PM

    満月ああそう

    Feb 05, 2015 05:51 PM

    Dan,

    Have you read this article by Raymond James?

    http://www.uraniumseek.com/news/UraniumSeek/1423167452.php

      Feb 06, 2015 06:57 AM

      Hey Lawrence, Shad and Bird, thanks for the information. I have not read the article yet as I am busy for a bit but definitely will. I am very pleased with the amount of interest in the sector here at least… (;-)

      Feb 06, 2015 06:12 AM

      Shorter article than I thought. That is very good information on the coming supply/demand equation.

        Feb 06, 2015 06:48 AM

        Thanks Dan. I feel uranium might be a lasting game. I am focusing on CCO and dml just make sure I can last. Good luck to all of us.

    Feb 06, 2015 06:29 AM

    One of the questions I often ponder is what is left to goose in order to get a little more juice out of the economy when it is stagnating and credit issuance has reached its climax. We have already seen how housing was pumped up as one example of how stimulants in relaxed lending can works wonders.

    At least for awhile.

    And then we had the massive doses of credit offered to the young who went out on a credit limb to get a good education. Student loan debt was a magnificent way to fuel a period of credit expansion but the downside is that so few can pay it off on time!

    When all else fails there is always interest rates that can be compressed further until they literally hit zero of go negative. That trick has been pretty much exhausted though and little remains to be cut for most Central Banks.

    So then we had easy car loans and another dose of subprime credit made readily available for those who were still breathing. Even welfare recipients could buy a spanky new car if they did the application forms correctly.

    But that was kind of digging at the bottom of the barrel.

    No worries though, credit card companies have continued with their barrage of enticements to the unwary and actually seem to be making some headway again even as it has become clear the American consumer is exhausted.

    And now we again have rules relaxed where home buying is concerned so there is a little juice left to squeeze on that front as the suckers who did not get their boats swamped the first time around have even odds of getting wiped out when the next housing downturn starts.

    Even Obamacare is a version of how to get more money flowing at least on a sectoral basis. But of course that amounts to a tax and should have been seen as an economic disincentive, not a net plus.

    Well now we have low oil prices as the latest in efforts to create a stimulant and hand back some money to consumers. And the steep declines in commodity prices have no doubt also been beneficial if only that they stave off the day when inflationary pressures might appear.

    But what is left? Where will the next big boost come from now that almost everything of consequence has already been taken to its conclusion and cannot be pushed further?

    Well this is probably where we really need to start to worry. Because students of history know that at such stages during the terminal days of credit creation that the only thing remaining that might be a stimulant is the creation of a large war.

    We have almost arrived there now. What that means is that many of the stimulants of the past will not work anymore and some will begin to fail or go into reverse. There is a limit to lowering interest rates. There are limits to how many new homes can be sold no matter how easy the terms and there are limits to how much student loan debt can be foisted on the unwary.

    And now as it has become clearer to most that the multi-year declines in commodity and resource prices has almost reached its end we can also be confident that the benefits in the form of falling input prices is also near its expiry date.

    This is actually a very dangerous time. Taxes are rising, employment in much of the world is soft or becoming increasingly unstable and excess capacity in virtually every developed and developing nation is on the rise. The debt burden suddenly becomes obvious for what it is….a massive burden and a drag on growth propsects everywhere.

    But this is nothing new. It is a repeating story throughout history and one we should know by now. When there is no more room for growth then what comes next is creative destruction, trade barriers, burned crops, abrupt currency devaluations, massive defaults and finally war.

    If anybody can think of a way to either artificially or organically grow the economy at a time when even the last bastion of stability in the worlds economy (the US) is near to embarking on recession then you had best say it now.

    Some say infrastructure is the way to go. Lots of infrastructure. But that has been tried in China to a severe degree and the result is a credit bubble the likes of whcih the world has never seen.

    Others say it is time for Central Banks to just start handing out money and doing helicopter drops directly into the hands of the beleaguered populations of tax payers. Maybe they are right. I don’t know.

    What I am more sure of is that we have used up all the major avenues of credit creation and consumer relief that might lead to an expansion and escape velocity but only found ourselves deeper in debt when the day was done.

    That leaves war making to sort it all out. Broken windows anyone?…….. Anyone?

    Feb 06, 2015 06:59 AM

    So are low energy prices really a significant economic stimulant?

    Some bloggers do nothing but worry about low fuel and oil prices and even suggest it will lead to a crash in industry, the economy, junk bonds, corporate bankruptcy and massive unemployment. The long term data is more convincing of the benefits though.

    From Zerohedge this morning, I came across a graph showing the correlation of low energy costs to economic growth. Take a look at it and just try to dispute the benefits. I only want to repeat though that this is the last of the major stimulants that can be employed to produce an expansion.

    If cheap oil fails to get the desired results we really have nowhere left to go because the technical charts on commodities tell us unequivocally we are already in a bottoming process for most primary resources.

    World Growth — Energy versus GDP
    https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/world-growth-in-oil-energy-economy-2013-logo.png