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Weekend Special: Trader Rog opines on economics and politics.

Big Al
February 7, 2015

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Discussion
221 Comments
    Feb 07, 2015 07:39 PM

    The real unemployment rate is not any where near 25 %. I personally do not know of anyone who wants a job that does not have one. The unemployment situation is no where near like it was in the 1930’s Depression.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:51 PM

      Mr Miller,

      I happen to agree with you.

      In my opinion, the real problem is the way that the numbers are publicized and not giving a true picture.

        Feb 07, 2015 07:41 PM

        I am not in US so I don’t know. However, I do read news about the bad employment picture in places like Ferguson, Detroit, East LA, etc. I also know the there are very few working in the native population and my tour guide told me the situation is desperate and I felt sad for him. I feel it might be the case since if every who want job have got one, there should not be mass riots.

        In Canada, my friends have problem to get meaningful jobs in places like Vancouver and Toronto. It has been very frustrating for them. They are all well educated.

          Feb 07, 2015 07:53 PM

          Unemployment rate for January is 23.2%
          http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

            Feb 07, 2015 07:56 PM

            One in fifty Americans were on food stamps in the ’70s. Today it’s one in six.

            Feb 07, 2015 07:05 PM

            Shadow Stats number might be a bit high since it includes underemployment. e.g. if a person used to be a high paid engineer and now working in Burger King part time may not feel he is employed. It is really challenging to know the real number now since nothing is reliable. However, one thing makes think that economy and employment is not so rosy is the policies of government and FED. they are still the same as the crisis time. The interest rate is still 0. It is said that to see what they do not what they say, which is my rule for life. It is hard to imagine why they keep doing this when economy has already recovered. It is unprecedented in history to stay this level for six years. Before, even 1% interest rate could only last 1 year. Is it possible we feel OK just because of the policy?

            Feb 08, 2015 08:10 AM

            Thank you Lawrence

            Feb 07, 2015 07:15 PM

            I think it’s reasonable to count underemployment as it gives a truer picture of the economy’s health.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:11 AM

            Of course it is, Matthew.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:09 AM

            It depends on the definition. John would be the first to admit that.

          Feb 07, 2015 07:13 PM

          Lawrence…Armstrong describes the present top as a dead cat bounce, as things turn down again.

          Glen Downs & Martin Armstrong Talk from Capitol Hill – Politics & Economics

          http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/07/glen-downs-martin-armstrong-talk-from-capitol-hill-politics-economics/

            Feb 07, 2015 07:44 PM

            Besides their differences on abortion and gay marriage, Armstrong doesn’t see a difference between the Ds and the Rs. +1 Marty!

            The Unionized Sheeple of America will never get it.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:14 AM

            That is interesting but albeit a bit simplistic Matthew.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:39 AM

            I don’t think it is simplistic, Al. Both parties are far more alike than not on all the issues that impact the people the most. Both are nothing but authoritarian collectivists. Neither has any problem with the Marxist monetary system of wealth redistribution. Neither demonstrates any regard for the rule of law or any aversion to sticking their noses into the affairs of other nations. They probably differ by no more than 5% to 8% if we don’t look at the social issues that are really nothing more than distractions.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:30 PM

            This would be a great in person discussion. And, I do mean that!

            I can’ agree with the 5% to 8%. 35 % to 40%? Sure!

            Feb 08, 2015 08:55 AM

            So what would you do that is a better idea?

        Feb 08, 2015 08:39 AM

        A number of us on this site have stated for the last 2 weeks that we didn’t think the short term bottom was in yet for gold, so why is everyone so surprised when dropped on Friday with the jobs report, in alignment with expectations from Gary that this sell-off may get triggered? It was discussed on the daily editorials a few times.

        Why were people confused went Gold went down the ECB announcement on the 22nd,or the Greek vote? A number of us called each of those several days or weeks before they happened, and when they did people kept saying it surprised them. (??)

        After the Swiss vote spiked gold, and Canada, Australia, and New Zeland cut rates weakening their currencies, then it caused PMs to rise. However, when gold put in an intra-day triple top on Jan 20th of 1305, and it seemed like a temporary point of resistance had been hit. I stated early that week that we’d probably start correcting down on the news of Thurs 22nd ECB announcement, and then the down trend would follow through the Friday PMI/ISM numbers, and into the next week following the Greek decision. I bought some JDST as a hedge for the ride down.

        Even after discussing that all week, a number of people thought it was weird that gold wen down on the ECB or Greek votes. Why? Gold had put in a temporary top and needed to correct, and Gold just needed any excuse to validate the fundamentals and retreat back from the level it was at.

        Doc, Gary, LPG, Matthew, and myself mentioned before it happened we expected a correction down to 1250-1240 the following week. Gold did correct starting on the 22nd (to the day on the ECB announcement) from 1302 down to 1254 (intra-day) on Thursday Jan 29th, but then it rebounded some up into the 1283 on the 30th. Honestly I was surprised it didn’t push down to the 1240s on the 30th but it rose, and I stated emphatically that I did not believe that we hit the bottom there on the 29th.

        For all of late January and early February most of the technicians on the site were still expecting a fall down to 1240 level (and some believed down to the 1220 level). After doing a little more reviewing of the charts, then I started placing a little more emphasis on the Dec 9th close of 1232.40 (which was the close of the most recent peak). Here is a discussion between Matthew and I on Tues Feb 3rd:

        On February 3, 2015 at 5:35 am,
        Shad says:

        I believe we still have not put in the short term bottom in gold/silver mining stocks, but that they will likely bottom with the short term drop in the general markets in a “sell everything” motion later this week. Again, I expect Gold to still test the 1240-1250 area and was expecting it last week, but we should see that towards Thursday of this week. Then we’ll finish the rest of the leg up in February for Gold/Silver/ and the PGM group. March will likely start a new correction after that due to seasonal lows.

        On February 3, 2015 at 5:59 am,
        Shad says:
        After spending a little more time reviewing it, Gold could test that Dec 9th high of 1232.40 before heading back up for the remaining part of Feb. So even if Gold dips below 1240 briefly, that level of 1232-1233 should be another good layer of support.

        On February 3, 2015 at 7:33 am,
        Matthew says:
        The high on the 9th was actually 1239 but I agree with your view that we could see a test of the closing price that day at 1232.10. Whatever happens, I think the consolidation will be done this week.

        On February 3, 2015 at 9:07 am,
        Shad says:
        Yes, I should have phrased that more carefully. I meant to say the Dec 9th high, not the high that day. Personally I put more emphasis on the closing price, so I was using the 1232.40 showing on Kitco’s charts. I do think it is relevant that the high that day was 1239 because there are a number of traders that will use this figure as the 1240ish support zone.

        On February 3, 2015 at 12:16 pm,
        Matthew says:
        I agree again, including sharing your preference for the closing price.

        ** And here is another conversation with Glen on Feb 3rd:

        On February 3, 2015 at 9:16 am,
        Shad says:
        By the end of Feb I could see 1323-1347 Gold and $19 Silver, but Gold has to put in the short term bottom. 1240-1250 range is one layer, then the 1232.40 close on Dec 9th is the last big layer of support. If we got down in the 1240′s and then turned back up, I believe February could still be a a positive month. Technically Gold is still in the uptrend, but will need to validate with a strong upturn coming out of this bottom.

        On February 3, 2015 at 9:37 am,
        glenfidish says:
        Shad i see strong support as far down as 1218/1220.. We were held there for a significant time before we broke intermediate cycle trend. I rather 1238/1240 as you say.

        On February 3, 2015 at 9:52 am,
        Shad says:
        Agreed. The next level of support below 1240-1250 range, and the 1232.40 close from Dec 9th, would be the 1218-1220 range, but I would prefer not to see it break 1240 personally, because then I think we’d have a good crack at 1323, 1347, and 1382. If we get down to 1220, then I don’t expect us to take out those targets, before March Madness.

        ****Then on Dec 4th when Al & Cory mentioned my remarks about getting direction in the next 3 weeks as to the tone of Gold because we’d have a bottom very soon and then a bounce for a few weeks. Here is that post for the record:

        On February 4, 2015 at 1:38 pm,
        Shad says:

        Thanks Al, Cory & Doc for addressing the comments. My thoughts are just that in the next 3 weeks we’ll know to what degree the short term low came in for Gold, and the intensity and level that Gold bounces.
        I thought Gold would bottom at the end of last week, or by Thursday of this week, and it seems like it is just taking a bit longer to get there than anticipated. 2 weeks ago both Doc and Gary mentioned they thought it may take a little longer, but had originally expected the prior jobs report to be the mover, and now have both moved their dates out further. I think Gary mentioned this Friday’s job report, so that will be something to watch for.
        There are only a few more weeks left to run in the intermediate cycle, so I expect many are correct in watching the 1240 zone as first support. The close on Dec 9th of 1232.40 was the most recent peak (an as Matthew pointed out it did get to 1239 intraday) After that 1219-1220 is solid support. If that should break then it wouldn’t be good, but I think that would be unlikely. I believe we’ll have a good 2-3 week rally in Gold once it breaks out from this low and so most of that should occur in the next 3 weeks.
        Very recently Gold has just bounced off the 200 day moving average twice and whipsawed in this range, not really wanting to make up it’s mind either way. It seems like Gold was just knocking the froth out of the market from when it got up to 1305 (1307 intraday) and so it has just been a normal corrective move looking for a bottom. February should get real interesting real soon.

        *****And finally on Friday we were posting in Doc’s Thursday thread since the Friday editorials weren’t up yet:

        On February 6, 2015 at 7:24 am,
        Shad says:
        Well I believe 1232.80 will still be a strong level of support, which was the Dec 9th close. It has not broken that yet today and if it bounced off it, I’d go 65% in.
        If that fails and we go to 1220, then I’d go the remaining 35% in. I’m going to spread it around between JNUG, SAND, some select Silver and Palladium miners, and keep some cash made in JDST lately for future endeavors.

        On February 6, 2015 at 7:44 am,
        glenfidish says:
        Good points shad!
        You had that 1232 target in mind from before. Id really like to see a reversal to day Matt and shad and close up. I don’t want to close down. With plenty of time left in the day it’s possible.

        On February 6, 2015 at 1:49 pm,
        Shad says:
        Thanks Glen. Well, we are closing in the range of 1230-1235 that we have been in all day, and it appears there was a lot of congestive buying and selling around the Dec 9th close of 1232.40. The range was only +/- $2 and it oscillated back and forth near this support most of the day. We closed a little higher than the low, but not by much.
        Even though I dislike trying to call bottoms (as it is a terrible game to play), it did seem like the fall today was most of the expected decline, and even when Gold had bounced up into the 1270s and many thought it was taking back off. The question is was today the bottom? and nobody knows.
        I did sell my JDST position taken out on Jan 22nd today for a nice profit, and picked up some JNUG at $30.02 near the end of the session. It popped to $30.40 after hours, so that seemed like a positive indicator for next week. We may need to still go down and test 1220 at the beginning of next week, but we could just take off on Monday.
        This is why earlier this week I mentioned we’d know in the next 3 weeks the mid term direction, and I was hoping we’d hurry up and put in the bottom. We’ll know by next week if we are ready for the remaining 2-3 weeks of rally in the intermediate gold bull run that started in November. Good luck to all and have a great weekend!

        — So, while I was surprised with how quickly Gold fell through previous support and congestion areas of 1257, 1250, 1240-1239, and even at first through the 1232.40 level, down to 1229, it did bounce back and hover near that level in the 1230-1235 level most of the day which does show there was definitely support at that level. That seems like a fairly accurate call after gold had popped out of 1254 up to 1283 and was in the 1270s (and while some gold bulls thought we going up and away, a number of us were expecting a lower low, and I was writing about the 1232 level all week.

        Now I concede that Doc may be right and we may be going down further next week, and the 1220-1218 zone could come into play that Glen and others have mentioned. However, if Roger stated earlier in the week that an uptrend may start on Feb 9th (Monday), then Friday had the potential of having put in the short term low at around the Dec 9th prior peak.

        Regardless, my anticipation is that we’ll have a good 2 week rally and at least test taking out the 1305, 1307-8 level and see if it can go higher. Since we broke 12501240, we may not have enough juice to get up to 1323 or 1346.80. We should get some form of bounce at least by the end of this next week. It will be interesting to watch to see how much strength this bounce has and where it puts in it’s top.

        Good luck to all in these crazy markets!

          Feb 08, 2015 08:33 AM

          Good post Shad, thanks for keeping the record straight as some accuse us of being “to the mooners” or “dead wrong.”

          If gold doesn’t close higher next week then I will obviously have been wrong in my expectation.

          http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55558187464&a=388708870

            Feb 08, 2015 08:28 AM

            Thanks Matthew. I just am confused when a number of us have been discussing each of these levels of support and resistance on the way up and down, laid out the rationale, and have been fairly accurate for the last 3-4 weeks during all this upheaval.

            I would submit that Doc & Gary & LPG & Glenfidish & Lawrence have been very much on the same page expecting a short term correction, expecting similar levels of support and resistence, and hashed all of this out on the daily editorials or the blog. What is odd is that everyone else seems really surprised when that is what plays out, and it makes me wonder if they are even listening to what Gary & Doc and others on this blog are saying.

            1) We were all supportive of the uptrend in gold out of the November low of 2014 and expected it to continue up into Jan & Feb, and it did.

            2) Several of us saw us taking out the 1280 target in January, but didn’t know exactly how it would happen fundamentally, but just felt technically that it would go higher. Then we got the Swiss unpegging from the Euro, and multiple country (Canada, Australia, New Zealand) rate cuts, and it happened as projected.

            3) Gold ran into major resistance at the 1305-1308 zone on Jan 20th – 22nd, so it appeared gold was putting in a short top, and it was stated by 6-7 people that we all expected a short term pull back. I was off a little in that I thought it would only take about a week, and it has taken over 2 weeks, but I stated it would start with the news flow of the Thur 22nd ECB, into the low PMI/ISM numbers the Friday 23rd, and then would head even lower after the Sunday 25th Greek vote into the 26th and 27th… and that is what happened. However on that Thur/Fri/Mon/Tue many commentators and bloggers were surprised it went down. We had been discussing that it would start to go down for the whole week before that.

            4) Then when gold bounced up to 1283 and the 1270s and everyone got uber-bullish, most of the technicians held their ground and stated we still didn’t feel the short term bottom was in yet, because the 1254 intra-day low on the 29th didn’t get below 1250 and test 1240 yet. Gary stated he felt Friday’s job report would be the low all last week, Doc agreed, and while I was looking for a Thursday low, I saw their point and referenced that on the blog that Friday would likely be the day to watch. Then we have a big correction on Friday, and many contributors and bloggers were surprised. (??)

            5) So many were in agreement that we had a date with a lower low around 1240, and after further consideration I saw the Dec 9th peak at 1232.40 as an area to watch. I discussed this idea with you, and Glen, and replied to Gary, and replied to Doc/Al/ Cory that I still was watching 1232.40 level as strong area of support. That appears to be what happened on this fall that we were expecting on Friday. Yes, it dipped briefly below that level, but for the most part it held +/- $2 on both sides of that almost all day. That is pretty dang close from a fall from the 1270s.

            6) I am also on record as saying that Gold could go lower at the beginning of next week with next support at 1220-1218, but that the lows could have also been put in on Friday, because it did correct as expected and when it was expected. Roger stated earlier in the week that he felt Monday the 9th would be the start of new upleg, so that seems to correlate nicely with Friday being the low.

            7) I have stated for the last month that I expected Jan & Feb to be positive months for gold, and March to be a negative month for gold, really just based on season tendencies and technical indicators. We are still technically in the uptrend that started in November, and I believe we will rally next week and for the remainder of the month.

            Now if we blast down past 1220-1218, then I don’t think we’ll rally much past 1308. However, if we come out Monday with a nice up day, then we may have enough upside left to get past 1308 and put 1323 on the table. The targets I really want to see taken out are 1346.80 and 1382, but that seems unlikely because of how fast things went through 1257, 1250, and 1239-1240.

            If Gold goes down to 1200 (or lower) as Birdman expects, then I believe this rally will be broken and I’ll admit I was wrong and go back to the drawing board. You don’t get em’ right all the time.

            **I am very bullish long-term on the PMs, as I know you are as well. I can even see the case for taking out the old highs of 1900 gold next year in 2016, and then heading even higher in 2017. However, I am not a “to the moon” guy, or even a gold bug. When it looks like it is heading down I say so (but then some have accused me of being a bear), or if it looks like it may rally I mention that (but then I’m labled a perma-bull).

            My approach and MO is swing trading in energy, commodities, and some of the general markets, and follow a number of commodities & energy spaces other than gold. I only have about 20% of my portfolio in Gold/Silver or the related miners, and I try to take a practical and methodical approach since there is a bit a volatility. This space in PM miners is unique, because of the multiples that can be made, and so many investors and the typical talking heads on TV have thrown out the baby with the bathwater in the mining sector, so there is huge opportunity if you pick your stocks and ETFs carefully.

            I sincerely wish good luck to all traders and think we have 2-3 exciting weeks ahead.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:55 PM

            Shad,

            Thanks foot taking time to write that comment.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:36 AM

            BTW Matthew, I like the chart you posted, as it also appears on that up channel support line from November, that gold is about to bounce of that and head up next week. That seems positive to me as well for the short term.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:45 AM

            Shad good summary!

            I just want to add that I was also very clear prior to New year back in december as I clearly told everyone that it was up into January and then down towards middle to end of January. Mentioned ecb date as well. Doc Fan is my witness and he asked me few days before if that’s what I seen still coming. I was clear that we would get hot. I didn’t give price projections but I knew it was down. I sold short term portfolio prior to the big drops. Would have preferred to have sold when LPG did as that was the precise time. Stewie sold following day. I waited one more day and it cost me profits albeit I still came out on top. This game is simple, make money and walk away with profits.

            Began nibbling again for short term trade Friday. Very little. This is a very tuff call and i remain cautious as to proceed with more purchases.

            As I noticed and posted on yesterday’s forum I did not like the weekly candle closes of the miners and more specifically gdxj/gdx. They look and smell like they are going to get hit this week.

            Im seeing bearish shooting stars on the daily but more importantly on the weekly.

            Thoughts? Matt,shad,doc,peter,stewie

            Feb 08, 2015 08:52 AM

            Thanks again Shad. I know I’m not the only one that appreciates the dialogue that you, Glennfidish and a few others regularly bring. I pay attention to our differences, no matter how subtle they might be at times, and am better off for it, I’m sure. I like that you guys treat this more like a joint effort than a competition.

            Btw, what do think of the breakout and back test on the following chart (the dashed blue line is drawn across the highest three weekly closes)? Assuming it holds, it points to a retest of the 2011 high.

            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p83075275279&a=388735420

            Feb 08, 2015 08:55 AM

            Shad,

            Sorry I must add one more thing to my previous post. There was two different opinions that where said between me and doc prior to January first and it’s all on record. Im not picking on doc by any means just stating the facts and where credit must be given.

            I made it 100% clear up into mid late january then down. I nailed it. Doc said down into january because his indicators where indicating it then up.

            So timing wise I was on the ball. Now Doc was not wrong by any stretch of the imagination. He clearly new it was going down and he nailed that 100% as well but not on timing. Therefore the #1 thing to remember is we all have somewhat same ideas but timing and getting there is not easy. With that said, id really like to know what doc thinks about the weekly candles as they look bearish to me and if he thinks it will be a dead cat bounce. I know he said down till the later part of next week.

            Guys I may just sit for the first time in quite sometime on the sidelines lol for the entire week as to get a conformation candle. I don’t mind missing a week where the volatility looks disgusting.

            My two cents..

            Feb 08, 2015 08:04 PM

            Matt,shad

            What would be the lowest it could go on that chart you put up Matt considering the blue line is “not broken. I meant for this weekly candle coming up. Lowest it can go without breaking line?

            I d assume that this week candle is the tell tale of the story?

            Feb 08, 2015 08:32 PM

            Glenn, about 1217 but an intra-week move to 1200 would be ok too (see dashed green line).
            http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p83075275279&a=388735420

            I would really like to see the week close above the 13 week EMA, minimum.

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:19 PM

            Hello Glenfidish,

            Hope all’s well.

            Thanks for the kind words, but I just want to correct something you wrote, if I may…

            You wrote (quote):
            “Would have preferred to have sold when LPG did as that was the precise time.”
            If you were referring to gold, this is a bit incorrect as I was a bit “early”:
            I sold my GLD options on the 20th and 21st and gold topped on 22nd.

            Granted, that was close. ( 🙂 )
            But honestly, even if gold have moved up another $30-40, I, fwiw, would not have been bothered.
            As I have written repeatedly, I do not try to catch tops and bottoms.
            As I’ve written also repeatedly, that is because 1) I’m not good at it and 2) I think it’s a fool’s game.
            I do think though that buying when nobody wants to buy is a better strategy then trying to call tops and bottoms – because then, selling is later on way more easy.

            When Al asked me last on the show “What are you (me, LPG) doing with your money at the moment?” I think I answered back to him that 1) i have a lot of cash/dry powder (as a percentage of my total portfolio) and 2) I try to stay nimble and open-minded.
            To me, this is the critical part: being nimble and open-minded.
            “Nimble” because there’s a lot of volatility at the moment in various asset classes.
            And “open-minded” because a one-way bet if wrongly put (ie at the wrong time) can be very painful (again, a consequence of the volatility).
            Also, open-minded because things might not go as low or as high as where I thought they would in the first place.
            Illustration of my point:
            If some of you recall, with my GLD and SLV Calls, my target was to make about 200% when I bought at the end of Nov. I didn’t make these 200%. Maybe if I had held, this year, at some point in 2015, I would have been able to make 200%. But it will not be for this time (given that I sold).
            I made about 97% on the GLD Calls and about 67% of the SLV calls. Is that far from my targets ? Yes, pretty much. Is this nice anyway ? To me, it was.
            But more importantly, what happened is that when I started to “feel” some resistance at some levels for gold and silver, I told myself: “time to fold . Lock in the gains. It was a nice ride. It might not go as far as what you had in mind initially. It’s ok. If things reverse from here, who knows where we’ll be in 2-3 weeks.”

            Most of the time, in all honestly, I have no real clue on where the price of gold or silver is gonna move to. And if you ask me at any point in time: where is gold/silver gonna go, I will honestly answer “I have no clue”.
            Although I don’t know the levels, I try to get a feel of where the sentiment is, how the commercials are positioned, what some of “my” technicals tell me in terms of momentum and I try to have an idea of global events (geopolitical, financials) that may be upcoming and how they might play out (this obviously rules-out black swan because black swan are, by definition, unpredictable). And then then then…. I try to have a plan in place for various outcomes.

            I reflected a lot about the following these past few days: I think the biggest difference between myself and some others in this site is that I don’t have short-term targets in mind – “that level will come, that level will come.” I truly don’t.
            I see things on charts, but I know the market is highly rigged. That’s why I try to find sentiment indicators and to pay attention to the commercials position IN THE CONTEXT of the technicals. Then, for me, it’s more about having a plan IF something happens rather than thinking THIS WILL HAPPEN.
            Let me repeat this to stress it again: to me, it’s more about “what will I do if this occur?” rather than “this will occur”. Again, it’s because I really try to be open-minded about potential outcomes. So I try to have a plan depending of various outcomes. Hope this makes sense.

            I will – almost – finish with something that has been mentioned a few times lately in various shows and on the chat and which both always make me smile.
            On this site, once in a while, people say/write “gold will go to $5k, $8k, $10k”. And some people (naysayers) think/respond “this is crazy”. Or the naysayers add a caveat: “ok, maybe but not before 5yrs, 10yrs, 20yrs”. Honestly, when I hear this, I smile.
            Why do I smile? Because naysayers say it’s impossible just because they can’t conceive it. Because they think it’s not possible within 5yrs doesn’t mean it can’t happen. Be aware of the possibility of what your mind can’t conceive to occur.

            Likewise, someone mentioned a few weeks back silver at $2 or $4.
            Initially, I thought to myself “no way”. But then, I thought about it, and I realized that there is no reason why silver cannot go to $4 or even $2 at some point.
            So even this, is possible to me. If someone ask me “how could silver go there?” I’d say: think of a case of liquidity crisis, similar to 2008 but magnified, and everything will become, for a short period of time, very very cheap. If this happens, I just hope I’ll have spare cash to buy a few kgs. Silver aside, I hope I’ll have a good amount of cash on the side as I think many assets will be cheap.

            To me, this point illustrate the concept of being “open minded” or not. It’s not being open minded in order to say “I’m cool, I’m open minded”. It’s about to be cognizant that outcomes that we think are unlikely MIGHT anyway occur. And then, it’s about being prepared for it by having a plan in place for IF/when they occur.
            To push a bit further, I try to assess the likelyhood of something happening and try to be prepared for this moment, as opposed to ruling out, ex ante (which means allocating a 0% possibility to an outcome), that event to occur.

            To conclude, I continue to have ample amount of cash to deploy in DOWN times, both for the metals, and PM stocks on a selected basis.
            I don’t know where the top and the bottom for gold will be for 2015. I am open to the idea that we MIGHT have topped for the year already, and that the final bottom might be $1100, $1050, $1000, $900 or even $800. Who knows.
            What’s more important for me is that I have a plan in place, and a plan after the plan. As I’ve written before, I used to place the average cost of production at about $1200, and it is now probably down to about $1100-1150 due to 1) a stronger dollar and 2) lower energy costs. So any price below $1100 is good value for gold to me in my book. And anything in the $1100 zone and below, I’m interested (I’ll play again with long dated GLD Call options).

            Best to you Glenfidish, and GL to all investing/trading.

            LPG

            Feb 08, 2015 08:53 PM

            Matthew, thanks man!

            I appreciate your insights as well and what you bring to the table on a daily basis. Yes, I like a collaboration of ideas, and definitely interact on this blog in the spirit of sharing knowledge and so we can all test the ideas with each other. No need in competing when there are hedge funds and institutional investors that can change things on a dime. I think the value of the site Al and Cory and our commentators have built is the exchange of different ideas and opinions. I’d love if we can all prosper together.

            As of for the next chart you posted with the Blue dotted trend line, it is very telling that we just broke above it, and puts a little more fuel on fire that we may have a little more upside surprise left in Feb. Any time levels break above a trend line or moving average it is typically bullish, but it also seems like we reverted back down a bit to the mean on Friday. The question is going to be:

            1) Do we bounce back up off that trend line around the 1232-1233 level?
            **or
            2) So we fall below it for the beginning of next week?

            Personally, I’d like to see a bounce off above the 1240-1250 zone on Monday.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:07 PM

            Glen thank you as well! Yes, you have made many solid calls over the last few months, and I always consider any thoughts, questions, or levels you throw out, even if I don’t always comment.

            I see what you are saying on GDX/GDXJ and honestly, it is getting so wild with the whipsaw action, it is getting harder to develop a trend. Personally, I was wrong on GDXJ and expected a fall below $26 possibly down to $24.79 when we broke down to 1240 and 1232.40, but it held up better than expected.

            At this point, since we are still waiting to see the direction Gold will take this week, I am just watching to get a little more info. I did sell my JDST on Friday, and did purchase a small position in JNUG at $30.02 (Just in case Friday was the actual bottom). I usually use a 3 tier approach into a position and out of a position, and will add more JNUG if we fall to 1220-1218 level in Gold. If we hit $24.79 in GDXJ, I’ll purchase a second position. It is gonna be interesting to see how things go this week. May your week be prosperous!

            Feb 08, 2015 08:35 PM

            Shad,Matt do you guys follow Elliot wave?

            The reason I ask is if this is a wave 4 correction off the 1130 low then it just violated rule #2 according to Elliot wave. It states wave 4 should overlap the top of wave 1 or a recount is needed.. The Wagner guy you follow some times shad made a bad call Thursday. He believe that it would hold and then Friday it broke the 1232 number briefly into 1228 and overlapped wave 1. Thoughts?

            Feb 08, 2015 08:36 PM

            Matt,shad and LPG thanks for your previous post.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:37 PM

            I meant to say wave 4 should not overlap wave 1.

          LPG
          Feb 08, 2015 08:42 AM

          Hello Shad,

          Hope you’ve had a good week-end thus far.

          I just want to comment on something you’ve written as I think you gave me credit that I didn’t deserve…

          Quote from you: “Doc, Gary, LPG, Matthew, and myself mentioned before it happened we expected a correction down to 1250-1240 the following week. ”
          I don’t think I ever mentioned or wrote that. So I cannot take credit for it.

          What I wrote about and said on the show (a few weeks ago now – the week that the SNB removed its cap vs. the Euro )was that I would take the opportunity of any pop in gold above $1300 to reduce my GLD Dec 2015 call options and reduce some positions in my PM stocks. I’ve done both. As an aside, I’ve also sold my SLV Dec 2015 Call position the day silver repeatedly at breaking $18.50s (Matthew probably remembers this as he commented on it).

          So thanks for giving me credit… but again, it is not deserved on this one. 🙂

          Best to you,

          LPG

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:47 AM

            As an addendum: I’ve sold ALL the GLD Dec 2015 Call options I had: sold 1/2 on Jan 20th, 1/2 on Jan 21st.

            Best,

            LPG

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:54 AM

            As a correction (just looking at my log of trades) of something I’ve just mentioned and which is inaccurate (my memory failed me on this one…).

            I didn’t sell my SLV Call options in one day.
            I sold them on Jan 21st, 22nd, and finished to sell them all on the 23rd.
            But the reason was the one I mentioned already, being that silver was FAILING (typo in my 11:42am post: the word “FAILED” is missing after “repeatedly” – apologies) at breaking $18.50s.

            Just wanted to clarify, and apologies for not being accurate in the first place.

            Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

            LPG

            Feb 08, 2015 08:03 PM

            Yes, LPG, I remember. I said you’re actions were those of a pro and that I hoped people were paying attention. Considering that you ARE a pro, big surprise, right? :O

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:41 PM

            Just an addendum to my longish post above at 1:19pm.

            When I write:
            ” I am open to the idea that we MIGHT have topped for the year already,” I am not saying I THINK we have topped for the year. I am saying I am open to the idea.
            I am also equally open to the idea that we might break the recent high.
            As I wrote, I have no clue. I just stay open-minded and try to prepare to various outcomes with a plan.

            Best to all,

            LPG

            Feb 08, 2015 08:35 PM

            Sorry about that LPG, and yes I remember you saying you’d reduce your GLD Dec 2015 options on a pop above 1300. My reference to you acknowledging the further downleg to 1250-1240 was based on what you said on the 26th>

            On January 26, 2015 at 1:50 pm,
            LPG says:
            Stewie,
            Not sure for who your comments are re: the “be careful”.
            As you might have noticed, Doc did NOT mention stocks were A BUY here. Rather, he said:
            * about gold: (quote – sec 26 sqq in the podcast) “we’re going to probably move down to at least to $1250″
            and
            * about stocks (quote – sec 34 sqq in the podcast):

            “that will be interesting to see HOW MUCH the stocks sell off because IFFFFFF they don’t sell off MUCH, that’s gonna be an opportunity I feel for me – PERSONALLY – to purchase some more that I (Doc) liked”.
            FWIW, I personally agree w. his observations re: the divergence between many PM stocks and PMs today (I had this in my portfolio for both gold and silver stocks) and also about the conclusion he draws assuming they don’t fall off TOO MUCH if/when gold retreats further toward $1250

            Feb 08, 2015 08:39 PM

            LPG for the record, I always appreciate your insights and value you thoughts, and try my best not to take anybody’s words out of context but I might have misunderstood.

            When you said you agreed with Doc’s conclusion about the fall to 1250, I saw that as another validation that we had not hit our low yet:

            “FWIW, I personally agree w. his observations re: the divergence between many PM stocks and PMs today (I had this in my portfolio for both gold and silver stocks) and also about the conclusion he draws assuming they don’t fall off TOO MUCH if/when gold retreats further toward $1250”

            Cheers my good man!

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:15 PM

            Shad,
            It’s all good, no worries.
            I understand that the “If/When” part of my comment you quoted might have been the confusing part.
            I also suspect that had i written only “If” as opposed to “If/When”, things would not have been confusing/ambiguous. My fault.
            Best to you and GL to all investing/trading in the upcoming week.
            LPG

            Feb 08, 2015 08:24 PM

            You da man LPG and just know your input is appreciated!

            Let’s have a great week!

      bb
      Feb 07, 2015 07:23 PM

      You know Jmiller, I keep reading from sites employment and the economy is so bad, but anyone I know with American contacts tells me everyone they know is working.
      Makes a person wonder what to believe.
      To be honust, as long as everyone is fed and has medical care, what would be the problem?
      Lots of people using the food banks in Canada tho.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:58 AM

      I DON’T KNOW WHO YOU KNOW, but I know at lease 5 people who have been unemployed for more than a year now……………you need to travel more into the large urban areas of this country.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:42 AM

        If you know someone who has a Masters Degree and works in a bar serving drinks is this person unemployed? I think so. There is a substantial amount of people that fall into this category. There are also a lot of folks that don’t even look for work. Their lives are shattered. They are not counted either. I don’t know what is the unemployment rate but its higher than reported that is for sure.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:36 AM

        Sorry to hear that. Did they get unemployment? Are they getting food stamps and other kinds of welfare? ObamaCare or Medicaid? The answer should be yes. Do they have two legs and can walk? If so, I am sure some of them can relocate if they wanted too. People do have to do that for employment even in a good economy. And there are still plenty of places in the U.S. that do have jobs available. However most people do not want to relocated or take low paying jobs especially if it is hard work. I saw plenty of jobs available this summer and fall in south-central PA. In the winter though the help wanted ads do drop off notability like they have for as long as I can remember so now it would be harder until spring.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:22 PM

      THIS IS WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN…around here. TAXES NEED TO BE PAID.

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8w5H6fkC4U

      PRONTO !!!!!!! you have been fully warned.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:51 PM

    I don’t agree. Between part time, underemployed and the lack of any job creation, I see the figure at nearly 20%

      Feb 07, 2015 07:58 PM

      Absolutely. The official numbers are bogus. Does anyone think our rulers are going to tell us how bad things really are?

      I think when you consider between unemployed and underemployed you are looking at least at 20%.

      I agree with DAI AND EBONLAN……….the numbers are screwed up……..

    Feb 07, 2015 07:56 PM

    Trader Rog is right. 26% of IBM’s work force is to be gone.

    http://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/tech-careers/massive-worldwide-layoff-underway-at-ibm

    And like the lamestream media keeps telling us this is the best jobs market in a decade. The only employment numbers I believe is what Shadow Stats has.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:55 PM

      Eddie, I don’t disagree. I do think that 25% is high based on my knowledge.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:03 PM

    Maybe the unemployment problem doesn’t seem that bad on the surface. For llike over here you have food banks and welfare provisions. However 46m in the States on food stamps and over 40% of U.S. households being one pay cheque away from penury sounds pretty bad to me. And what happens if the food stamps and welfare cheques disappear as seems quite possible. Then the 30s stand to be minor sideshow by comparison.

      Andy the numbers are bad…youth can not find a living wage job…..,
      I suggest, that those who think the employment numbers are so great, Go and visit a HOME DEPO, LOWES, SEARS, STARBUCKS….check out who are working the lines.
      Manufacturing jobs…..are not being created, just shifted. Anyone that thinks things are ok,, …needs to check vacant warehouse space, vacant office buildings, and vacant strip mall…………………….jmho.

        bb
        Feb 07, 2015 07:27 PM

        J, I notice a lot of people that look like they should be retired working at Walmart,rona,lowes etc

        What I think has happened is their pension is just not cutting it for them.

        The issue there I feel is not that they don’t have pensions, its currency devaluation.

        I still on occasion try to explain devaluation to people, nobody cares, they think Im nuts etc. I don’t know what the answer is.

          maybe in your neighborhood, but, there are a lot of 40 yr. olds, that have been working as engineers, tradesmen, salesmen, …………I get out and talk to people, and have been from INDIANA TO FLORID……..boots on the ground., and there are a lot of people who had other good jobs…that do not exist today……….just my observation.

            Florida……sorry

            Feb 07, 2015 07:02 PM

            Where in Indiana?

            Indianapolis.., that is the only place to be if you have to be in INDIANA.

            Feb 07, 2015 07:41 PM

            Sarah graduated from DePauw. Right up the road.

            CROSS ROADS OF AMERICA…………

            Feb 07, 2015 07:42 PM

            We are about the same age. Remember the tv show called Crossroads?

            When I looked at the bombing map that Russia showed off last year,,,Indianpolis was not on the target hit list……….Beside the payroll center for the ARMY is in INDY, and the payroll must be met….We do not want our soldiers to go unpaid. And besides that Putin likes for the USA to have more paper for the soldiers,,,,BECAUSE , when the soldiers find out that the paper is no more than toilet tissue,,the soldier, like in ROMAN TIMES, might start asking for their pay in SILVER….then GOLD……………OOTB.

            crossroads………..sounds familiar…………what was it about…..

            Sarah was very bright, in wanting a hoosier enlightenment……Great college like most of the Hoosier colleges are….to name a few….INDIANA UN,(BOBBY KNIGHT FAME) PURDUE Bob Greese, Leroy Keys John WOODEN,,, BUTLER, NOTRA DAME, THE FOUR HORSEMEN, AND A HUNDRED OTHER … WABASH, CANNON BALL..INDIANA STATE (LARRY BIRD FAME) ……HOGIE CARMICHEL,RED SKELTON, DAVE LETTERMAN,,,,,,INDIANAPOLIS 500 GREATEST RACE IN THE WORLD……….Indianapolis COLT,PAYTON MANNING.
            LILLY PHAR….ROCHE …….LEW WALLACE CIVIL WAR HERO,,,BENJAMIN HARRISON, PRES OF USA……..I COULD WRITE A BOOK……….LOL

            I FORGOT …James Whitcome RILEY……….

          but, then again someone said ,,,you see what you want to see, maybe I see to much negative…………………………j

            Feb 07, 2015 07:03 PM

            Drink more Jerry!

            bb
            Feb 07, 2015 07:06 PM

            Not that I know anything, but it seems to me we are in a prosses of changing or economy.
            (I know,duh) but a lot of jobs are going to go to robots for example, more unemployment coming.
            The trick is going to be keeping everyone fed, people don’t revolt when their not hungry.

            Also, look at the jobs being created in the marijuana industry, eventually, we should be using hemp for everything it was intended for, hemp shirts etc the list is huge, imagine the potential for manufactureing.

            Pot smokers have been screaming about this for years.
            How about changing our energy focus to renewable? Huge manufacturing potential.
            Im sure there is more Im not mentioning.

            Feb 07, 2015 07:42 PM

            Take a look at Natcore Technology.

            DO NOT worry about the people getting fed…..the robots will be able to force feed the public anything they want….

            bb..do not forget the shelter….roof over their head……

            Feb 07, 2015 07:59 PM

            Jerry -you are on a roll!!!

          LPG
          Feb 07, 2015 07:55 PM

          bb,
          Nobody likes inconvenient truths.
          If you say to most people they are gonna hit a wall…almost no one will believe you until the wall is right in front of them and it’s too late…

      Feb 07, 2015 07:58 PM

      If that happens Andrew, I would agree.

    bb
    Feb 07, 2015 07:30 PM

    Roger, Iran appears to have a bomb in 90 days? this has been said for years now.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:30 AM

      Agree bb. To some, this is like the sound of a broken record that we have been hearing for several years now. But maybe it is time to start worrying because the potential threat, while widely known, has been coming into clearer focus for many years now. And repetition has not made the problem go away.

      And now we are here.

      Perhaps we should revisit some of the opinion from Israel of a couple years back and ask ourselves what danger lies ahead. If it is true that Iran is ready to be nuclear armed and it is true that they have a missile delivery system (Al Shebab) that can reach Israel and we are sure their hatred has not subsided….then read this threatening excerpt from the Times of Israel and take note.

      “Israel will wait until the last moment, diplomatic sources say, allowing every nonmilitary lever to work. Ultimately, Israel will rely upon itself as it did when it destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981 in Operation Babylon and, according to foreign reports, the budding Syrian-North Korean reactor in 2007 in Operation Orchard. To the question of when any such attack on Iran might occur, the best minds say, “He who knows does not speak; he who speaks does not know.” But the best sense is that when and if it happens, the noise will be deafening and reverberate for a long time”.

      The full article is linked below. This is extremely serious bb and we should not underestimate that preemptive strikes are already planned or ready to go and that they have been in the working stages for several years already. In short, a military defensive strategy and plan is certainly ready for deployment.

      The Iranians Are Almost There. This is How They Did It — Times of Israel, September 2012
      http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-iranians-are-almost-there-this-is-how-they-did-it/

        Feb 08, 2015 08:35 AM

        Israel has been whining about Iran being on the verge of developing a nuclear weapon since 1992. It’s been a lie since 1992 and every US intelligence agency agrees.

        http://news.antiwar.com/2012/02/16/panetta-iran-is-not-developing-nuclear-weapons/

        There is only one belligerent power in the Middle East equipped with WMD and nuclear weapons. I find it quite disingenuous that Birman knows all about a fictional Iranian nuclear weapons program and glosses over the very real fact of an Israeli nuclear threat. Perhaps it’s the blinders he wears.

        Israel is not the victim and never has been.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:51 AM

          Damn right, NEVER has been.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:37 AM

          Bob, I didn’t say I knew everything about anything. I merely wrote a commentary on the potential reaction in Israel and linked an article. That’s all. You read too much between the lines of post. Try not to get your back up so easily.

            bb
            Feb 08, 2015 08:15 AM

            You know Bird, I almost posted to Bob that he got something different than I got from your post.

            You and I agree on most things Bird, but we don’t seem to agree on Israel.
            I am afraid until the Zionists are removed I will see the state as evil, even if most of the people are not.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:23 AM

            Guess we will disagree on this one bb. I prefer to just leave it at that.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:44 PM

          Bob…I think you are the one with the blinders on…..

            Feb 08, 2015 08:03 PM

            Gator, how about you tell me about warfare and war crimes if you know so much more than I do? If a Zionist Judge does a review of the next to last attack by the IDF on Gaza and concludes the IDF committed 32 individual different war crimes, would that qualify as concluding that Israel committed war crimes?

            Of course I don’t have to ask you if you even read the Goldstone Report because I already know the answer. And you have the balls to talk about my wearing blinders.

            You can go out on the web and find videos of IDF snipers shooting kids on a rooftop during the last attack on Gaza. It’s enough to gag a maggot but not the useful idiots who support the Zionists. The pictures of the three children playing soccer on the beach were easily available on the web for those not wearing blinders. Does you blind support of the Zionists simply mean you ignore what is in front of your nose?

            In warfare there is a difference between killing and being a butcher. Gaza is the world’s largest open air prison camp and anyone who attempts to justify the cold blooded murders of thousands of inmates is missing a moral compass.

            bb
            Feb 08, 2015 08:41 PM

            I agree Bob.
            So, how many Ron Pauls will it take?
            How many schools need to open that teach what Liberty really means?
            I think the Israelis lobby is pretty strong, military industrial complex? Banks?
            A lot to overcome.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:39 PM

    bb and Trader Rog, all I can say is thank God that Obama and Netanyahu are now mortal foes. At least as the commander in chief Obama can hold out against Netanyahu, who regards his presidential destiny as being one of taking on Iran.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:54 PM

      Nutty Yahoo is up for re-election so he comes to speak to the US Criminal Congress because last time he got around 30 standing ovations when he gave a speech to them.

      The reason Nutty is coming is to ensure his re-election and to egg Uncle Sucker on for an attack on Iran but I don’t think it happens anytime soon.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:57 AM

        Interesting point Eddie.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:46 PM

          Big Al…Don’t know what is interesting about it…sounds like another Israel hater….

            Feb 08, 2015 08:23 PM

            Please explain why as a US tax serf I should have money taken from me (and by force if necessary) and given to the Israelie gooberment?

            Where in the US Constitution is such theft authorized? I can’t seem to find it.

            And why should I cheer on a man like NuttyYahoo who demands even more is stolen from me for his gooberment?

            Feb 08, 2015 08:06 PM

            Israel doesn’t have the balls to attack Iran. They got their butts kicked in Lebanon and both times they attacked Gaza. Killing people has nothing to do with winning wars. The IDF is made up of a few brave men who do tell the truth and a bunch of cowards led by criminals

            Feb 08, 2015 08:13 PM

            Sorry Gator, interesting regarding?

    bb
    Feb 07, 2015 07:10 PM

    As far as Im concerned Andrew, Israel, the Zionists, not the majority of Israelis, are evil.

    A real issue, as far back as Plato anyway, as he wrote about it, people don’t inform themselves.
    On top of it, people believe what they are told to believe.
    Just human nature I guess.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:43 PM

      Agree bb

      Feb 07, 2015 07:56 PM

      You better watch out what you say. In the United States of Israel that is close to being hate speech and a thought crime.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:03 AM

        Eddie,

        I think that you are a bit over the top on this one.

      LPG
      Feb 07, 2015 07:57 PM

      +1 bb
      Best,
      LPG

        Feb 08, 2015 08:35 AM

        Are you guys all nuts? You think Israel is evil? What the hell kind of commentary is that?

          Feb 08, 2015 08:54 AM

          Actually their own words pretty much damn them. Of course Israel is evil, it was founded on a total fabrication.

          http://www.monabaker.com/quotes.htm

            Feb 08, 2015 08:06 AM

            Israel is a country Bob. Are you really mad at a country? That doesn’t even make sense.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:42 AM

            Of course it makes sense.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:46 AM

            Please explain why as a US tax serf I should have money taken from me (and by force if necessary) and given to the Israelie gooberment?

            Where in the US Constitution is such theft authorized? I can’t seem to find it.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:32 PM

            Eddie, of course you are correct!

        Feb 08, 2015 08:43 AM

        Al, I am pretty surprised that is how you feel. Disappointed is a better word. You are mixing up politics with people. I doubt any of you have even been there. LPG?…BB?…Al?….

        Israel is a country like any other. Do you even stop to consider that the citizens there are every bit as much captive of the political class as people everywhere else on the planet?

        Is the US evil because of Obama?

          Feb 08, 2015 08:49 AM

          He said Israel, he didn’t say the people who happen to live within the borders of Israel.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:33 PM

            Point well taken.

          bb
          Feb 08, 2015 08:23 AM

          Never been there Bird, and yes I understand the average Israeli is held captive, just as the average American is, yet the Zionists and bankers, the leaders of both countries are evil, no doubt about it.

          The Iranian president said he wanted to eliminate Zionism, propaganda turned his statment into Israel, the Iranians call the west the great satan, hard to disagree.

          Yesterday as reported by RT, 500 rabbis marched to protest expansion in palistine, ex soldiers expose IDF atrocities etc. Normal people are good where ever you are.

          LPG
          Feb 08, 2015 08:28 AM

          Hello Birdman,

          You have your views on Israel, its current regime, and zionists, and I have mine.
          And our views are pretty much… miles apart.

          So while I respect your views, to which you are entitled to, on this “topic”, we’ll have to agree to disagree.

          I am not even gonna start to “argue” or exchange points/arguments again with you because it’s quite frankly, a waste of time on this matter: let’s face it, I won’t change your views and you’re unlikely to change mine. I’m cool with that personally.

          I will just make one comment though, which I believe is worth mentioning given you said : ” I doubt any of you have even been there”.
          The implications of your statement is that one probably would gain to go somewhere in order for him(her)self to make a proper opinion of the situation. Kinda fair point. I said: k-iiiiiii-n-d-a.

          K-i-n-d-a because I have opinions (fwiw) on many subjects… and on many, I have not “been there”.
          For ex., I have views on Nazi Germany, I have views on the Vietnam war, I have views on Bolchevik Soviet Union, on the Christianisation of tribes in South and Central America a few hundred years ago, on black people slavery trade… I have views on all of this despite not having been even born.
          Even worse (or better !) I even have views on concepts (!!!), ie abstract stuff that cannot be visited : freedom. justice, liberty. I guess you see my point. So again, is the fact that I haven’t been somewhere “de facto” renders my views irrelevant ? Hmmmmm……

          The interesting part, I suspect, is that if someone wants to go to Israel and says, for ex., while being “controlled” and “interrogated” at the airport upon arrival that he/she is against zionism and the current government policies, illegal occupations/settlements etc… I am not sure he/she will be able to “visit” the country much. My suspicion is that he/she might be back from where she comes from with the next plane.
          In the world I want to live in, citizens of countries should be able to travel where they want, irrespective of their views/opinions. Otherwise, it is… how do you call it… “intellectual totalitarism” ? Damn… another concept.

          Best to you, as always,

          LPG

            Feb 08, 2015 08:30 PM

            Go there one day LPG. The churches and historical places are fabulous. Politics should not cloud your judgement of the country. Fact is, people are pretty much the same everywhere you go.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:08 PM

            I have absolutely noticed that to be true!

            bb
            Feb 08, 2015 08:10 PM

            Both you guys are just too smart for me.

            Bird, I havnt seen all of my own country yet.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:53 PM

            LPG,

            Great comments from you on the topic.

            The simple answer to all of it would be, to have all countries go to being a republic instead of being controlled by an oligarchy, which most are. Including the US, Israel and the EU.

            When we go back to an asset based currency system, that should happen.

            Soon TBD

          Feb 08, 2015 08:44 PM

          Israel is not a country like any other. It was founded on a total lie, the citizens support racism of the worst sort and whine about Anti-Semitism whenever someone points out their criminal actions. The attack on Gaza was among the worst of war crimes I have ever seen. There is something especially sick about snipers shooting children at point blank range or targeting kids playing soccer on a beach. Israel and the Zionists are a pestilence on humanity.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:49 PM

            Got any proof of that Bob…anyone can accuse..let’s see you back it up….

            Feb 08, 2015 08:06 PM

            If you really wanted proof you would easily find it all by yourself, Gator. It’s not hard to find.

            LPG
            Feb 08, 2015 08:19 PM

            Thank you for the suggestion to go to Israel Birdman (no sarcasm).

            To be frank, at this stage, I have more interest in going and spending my money in the occupied territories of Palestine. (no sarcasm either).
            And hopefully, one day I’ll be able to see a free Palestinian state – but I’m afraid even if this becomes a reality, it will look like Swiss Emmental.

            Best to you,

            LPG

            bb
            Feb 08, 2015 08:46 PM

            Yes Mathew,proof is on the u tubes.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:48 PM

          Birdman…ditto….regards

      Feb 08, 2015 08:15 AM

      Of course I agree bb. But ‘for evil to flourish good men need only do nothing’. (Edmund Burke)

        Feb 08, 2015 08:43 AM

        Rising to the occasion Reverend? I would say more but I am not interested in the usual one sided debate on the subject that we get from members of this website.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:33 PM

    I think Ukraine is the pivot.

    I am convinced they will cod up some political solution this weekend and Merkel and Hollande will return home convinced of peace in our time. Gold will fall as a result IMPO and…

    Putin will then make his move – be it within days or weeks but it will not be long. He can see the desperation and the weakness. Already the Merkel/Hollande border is further West than the agree border of a few months back. Putin will push again.

    I see any fall in gold this week as a buying opportunity IMPO.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:46 PM

      We will certainly see very shortly, Bob UK

    Feb 07, 2015 07:52 PM

    The Isralie gummit isn’t going to attack Iran.

    They will get Uncle Sucker to do it for ’em just like they and their shill in the District of Criminals did with Iraq.

    Each year the US Gummit steals billions of dollars from people like me to give to the Isralie Gummit. And it is more like tens of billions when you count indirect “aid.”

    I would like to know where in the US Constitution this kind of theft is authorized.

    Why should money be stolen from hard working American people and given to foreign government. Anyone who does that is a thief and should have their hands cut off.

    And the Isralie Gummit does things like this with the stolen money:

    http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/ussliberty.html

    With “friends” like these who needs enemies?

    Also, just curious if Roger is a neocon.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:54 AM

      Eddie,

      I am curious why you would think that.

      Thanks man.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:51 AM

        He seems to agree with at least some of the neocon agenda or at least what the neocons tell us about Iran, like Iran having a nuclear bomb within 90 days (which is what the neocons have been saying for years).

      Feb 08, 2015 08:56 AM

      Think that about Roger I mean.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:54 AM

        Just curious how you feel about money taken from you and given to foreign gooberments like Israel, Ukraine, etc.

        The US gooberment has around 200 trillion in unfunded liabilities. How can this be afforded. Eventually someone has to pay and that someone is people like you and people like me.

        That is literally taking food off my table. That makes me angry. Doesn’t it make you angry? If not, why? I will denounce these b@stards every chance I get. How about you?

          Feb 08, 2015 08:38 PM

          Eddie,

          I have many times in the past and will continue to do so. Why do you think we have the guests that we do?

          Regarding Israel, I have to say that well over sixty years ago the US, UK and France caused the problem.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:43 AM

      Iran might be close to be attacked unless it can show the willingness of Chinese military to intervene in the time of war. It is not easy to do, only country has that assurance is Burma.

      Iran just abolished US dollar trade and installed Chinese RMB as alternative. It has accepted payment from multiple currencies since 2012 but never banned the dollar. It is reported China has docked warship in Iranian port and are helping Iran to build four refineries, which Iran desperately needs.

      The link is at the end of these reports.

      http://www.thechinamoneyreport.com

        Feb 08, 2015 08:11 AM

        Thanks Lawrence. A lot of interesting stories on that site you linked. I was not aware that 50% of Iran’s trade was with China these days. Who knew eh?

    bb
    Feb 07, 2015 07:30 PM

    Ebolan, ever read the Talmud?
    The “chosen” people believe the rest exist to serve them.
    Its in their dna don’t ya know.

    For me, its easy to see why Jesus took issue with them for example, but people believe as they are told, so, the Americans send millions.

    Ron Paul has been right for years.

      Feb 07, 2015 07:00 PM

      You are right. The massess are obedient and are asleep and the rest of us just have to take it.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:36 AM

      Jesus was a Jew, bb. (it’s in the Bible).

        bb
        Feb 08, 2015 08:31 AM

        Yes I know Bird, I also said he took issue with the Jews that wrote the Talmud, I expect he took issue with a great deal about the Jews, a new covenant and all.

        This is something I disagree with about religions, Jesus, as far as Im concerned told the truth about creation how it works etc Religions seem to twist what he said for their own benefit.

        I have nothing against Jews Bird or any other religion, I have no prejudices, except “bad” stuff by anyone no matter their religion.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:13 AM

          We will agree on that. I don’t have any problems with any religions either, bb.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:57 PM

          I completely agree bb

    Feb 07, 2015 07:17 PM

    Read you Bible! 1Kings 11 – The “chosen” is Jerusalem, (city of peace), not the tribe of Judah, though they were preserved to be a light and bring Torah to the world, NOT the Talmud, (Babylonian religion i.e. “Doctrines and Traditions of men” -Rabbinical Judaism established in the 2nd Century AD). Ashkenazim (East European Ashkenaz (Genesis 10:3 – sons of Japheth not bloodline Judah) descendents of CONVERTS to Judaism. In other words, most are not Semites! The Prophets say Judah and Israel would not know who they were. Most of them stayed in ancient Babylon i.e. Persia – Iran after the captivity, (see Daniel & Esra). I believe most ‘Jews’ mean well and just want to be left alone, but they are being led by Zionist fanatics like Nutty Yahoo. Orthodox Jews believe Jews should NOT be in the holy land till Messiah comes. Read Revelation if you want to know the rest of the story.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:09 AM

      No thanks.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:42 PM

        You better….I STRONGLY …..suggest you click on the video. DO IT NOW !!!!!!!!!!

        GOD MAKES ALL THE RULES…..pay your taxes or else.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8w5H6fkC4U

          bb
          Feb 08, 2015 08:58 PM

          HH, check out he Talmud, Jesus is idol worship and he is being boiled forever, how is a person supposed to know which religion is right?
          I should not encourage. I really shouldn’t.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:08 PM

            BB….I’m short for words…

            We have revisted this many times. Everytime is the same. Your nephews
            might be a good place to start. You need to be serious about knowing the
            true and living God Lord Jesus of the bible. Time is very short BB.

            Please seek The Lord while he can still be found. Time is running out.

            bb
            Feb 08, 2015 08:54 PM

            HH, you didn’t answer, how is a person supposed to know which religion is right?
            I just gave 1 example, there are many to choose from.
            Maybe its a personal thing?

            Trying to sell yours to people familiar with dd might be a challenge.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:11 PM

            Completely agre bb

            Feb 08, 2015 08:58 PM

            BB….you should know the answer.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:03 PM

            BB….in case you forgot. TAXES

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8w5H6fkC4U

            bb…READ FAST FACTS….by CARLSON……….you will get an answer……….

            answer them twice,,,,,,if they reject, shake off the dust and go on………time waits for no man…………………………………

      Feb 08, 2015 08:13 AM

      I am actually re-reading it now Robin.

      bb
      Feb 08, 2015 08:51 AM

      To me its kinda simple, the Talmud couldn’t be included in the Christian records as Christians would “wise up” if they had.
      Well, maybe not but there would have been a chance they did.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:25 PM

    I’m a devoted listener of your blog, keep up the good work. I’d appreciate a
    copy of Trader Rog’s written comments on IBM.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:33 PM

    This is good:
    http://www.acting-man.com/?p=35609
    Be sure to watch the ridiculously Orwellian speech in the middle. I’m the last person that would’ve supported a democrat but Carter should not have been blamed for the consequences of Nixon’s actions. Yet that’s what economically illiterate republicans, as well as democrats, did.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:26 AM

      Matthew if there’s any justice in an afterlife (do we assume it’s downstairs for Tricky Dick?) he will have to answer for: ‘Our dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today’! Or ‘Stability and equal treatment is in everybody’s interest’.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:07 AM

        I would say that most national leaders would end-up downstairs. Btw, I want to point out that I have never voted for anyone on the right either. I would never give any politician the right to act or speak for me.

        The old saying “if you don’t vote you can’t complain” is completely false. If anything, it’s those who DO vote that can’t complain since THEY endorse the system.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:49 AM

          Funny Matthew, you have likely never personally known a political person in your entire life and yet you see yourself as some kind of leader of the Libertarian viewpoint. You do know they have a “Party” I hope. As in….they also have a political agenda and a leadership and fundraisers and followers who vote etc etc etc.

          You make me laugh because you are transparent and obvious.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:56 AM

            I do not see myself as some kind of leader and I would not vote for a libertarian politician either.

            I’m not surprised that honesty makes you laugh.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:54 AM

            It’s ironic that you just told Bob that he “read(s) too much between the lines of post.”

            That is exactly what you have always done.

    Feb 07, 2015 07:46 PM

    BOYS noting will change ! Only more manipulation and squeezing ! NO WW3 ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MKwECyX7Uf8

      Feb 07, 2015 07:48 PM

      THE EURO WILL DROPE 8888888888888888888888 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        Feb 08, 2015 08:37 AM

        Is that expressed as a percentage Franky? 88.8 is a big number….but hey I don’t doubt you.

      Feb 11, 2015 11:01 PM

      Zbigniew Brzezinski. There you go Franky, now you have dug it up.

      He is a relic, but also a major player in politics. Zbigniew influenced the Carter Regime to be anti-Russian, is in with the Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission brotherhood and Rockefeller circles.

      He has been a major influence in other administrations, but was and is relied on heavily by the Obama administration. When Obama got elected, my first comment to my chums were, “Well, we’re going back to war with Russia!”

      I remember everyone in the room looking at me like I had 2 heads for stating that, because everyone wanted to point out how friendly the 2 nations had been. My rationale was ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI and his cronies just came back into power, via the administration and various cabinet members that would be appointed as a result of Obama as president.

      Everything is playing out exactly as many stated it would in 2008 with the policies these guys would push. I believe that is also why Cuba is back in the news. Check out good ole ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI and the circles he travels in…..spooky.

    Feb 08, 2015 08:22 AM

    I would like to know how I can get a copy of Roger Weigand’s article on the layoffs that is occurring at IBM.

    Feb 08, 2015 08:49 AM

    FACE IT, NO MATTER WHAT……………their NOT going to let the price of GOLD RISE………………PERIOD !!!!!

      Feb 08, 2015 08:50 AM

      Not yet Mark. Bank on that. It is down for gold until it retraces to 1200 or lower. Sorry old chap.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:01 PM

      Gold will rise after the crush , Mark.

    Feb 08, 2015 08:10 AM

    Solutions Conference – March 28th at Princeton, NJ February 7, by Martin Armstrong

    The Solution’s Conference is being moved up and made available for everyone via a live stream on the web. Because we can all “feel” 2015.75 coming this time, it is obviously important to get the debates started there as well. We are also working on a bill to be introduced into Congress as to also get it there in the drawer in time for when these people suddenly wake up and say OMG, there is another crisis perhaps we can at least offer something other than more authoritarianism.

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/07/solutions-conference-march-28th-at-princeton-nj/

    Feb 08, 2015 08:02 AM

    US is exporting large amount of gold to Swiss and Asia. Swiss is also re-export to Asia after converting to 9999% 1 kilo bars. The number reaches 71 ton in November. Us only produces 230 tons a year. also this is only official record. Who know how much hidden from record. I believe US is losing its remaining gold and custodian gold fast.

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1423414860.php

    Feb 08, 2015 08:45 AM

    Greek finance minister says: “The euro will collapse if Greece exits”
    http://uk.businessinsider.com/greek-finance-minister-the-euro-will-collapse-if-greece-exits-2015-2

    ——————

    Of course he is correct. Some people there will immediately say he is adding pressure or bluffing his way into a better deal for Greece but it is only those who have no idea of the serious consequences of a Greek expulsion.

    Feb 08, 2015 08:33 AM

    anyone following Greece… on zero hedge… more important than IBM…
    extraordinary…world war 11 replay…? courageous greek ministers..
    Bob Moriarty you there….?

      Feb 08, 2015 08:12 PM

      Yes, I am following Greece. They are making the right move by demanding time to negotiate and to get a bridge loan until Summer as that will allow them to evade outright default. Naturally this can all be worked out if cool heads prevail.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:51 PM

        Hogwash, that’s dribble Birdman.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:52 PM

          Banker logic, it is so obvious.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:55 PM

            Only a Banker would talk about a bridge loan, it really makes one laugh.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:53 PM

            OMG! Three short accusatory posts in a row. No way you are Dick Tracy but rather J….OOTB acting as an imposter. All kidding aside DT it is essential at this stage that Greece and the EU avoid an actual default. And it is not necessary to create that kind of trauma for the European markets either with a triggering of CDS and related insurance contracts. What we really want is an accommodation that brings the parties closer together and sets up the precedents and conditions for a Fiscal Union. This crisis may conveniently provide the opportunity to do just that.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:10 PM

        Bird say’s, it is important that Greece and the EU avoid an actual default. How many times do you need to keep hitting your head against a wall before you realize Bird that it feels good when you stop. Well!

      Feb 08, 2015 08:16 PM

      We know that the world is awash in debt that can never be repaid. Someone has to be the first to tell their creditors to go pound sand. I salute the Greeks for finally electing someone who can both add and subtract.

      I’m not ignoring the fact that the Greeks are serial deadbeats who have been broke 90 of the last 192 years. But anyone who lends money to a deadbeat deserves exactly what they have coming.

      It’s going to be a great shock to the Greeks that when they depart the Euro that they are going to be denied credit however learning to live within your means is a good experience. The rest of the world needs to try it.

        Feb 08, 2015 08:26 PM

        Amen Bob!

        Feb 08, 2015 08:06 PM

        If you are sure they are going to leave then it is an easy trade to set up Bob. The Euro will sell off hard on doubts about the cohesiveness of the Union and the inflexibility of its Central Planners. We will also see rates rising at auction as demand wanes. You know we all hear about how Central Banks lower rates and they have in fact taken them to zero or even negative in some cases? But ti is market forces that ultimately drive them back up and bring balance back to the system. I would contend that most CB’s actually have very little influence over rate setting once they have hit the zero bound and that is is the instability that the imbalances have created that eventually send them back to norms. This is where control is ultimately lost and really, it has been something of a miracle that has kept rates low this long already without blowing up the whole damn system. Anyway….if you are confident Greece will exit there is a lot of money to be made on that trade. But I would not bank on that happening this year. A portion of the outstanding debt can indeed be forgiven on a one-off basis to end this standoff. i think the IMF will need to step in and take the lead and do it quickly. What after all is the difference between Greece and and an insolvent African state whose economy has gone into reverse?

          bb
          Feb 08, 2015 08:25 PM

          Bird, what happens if Putin uses the brics bank to help Greece?

          I think Cyprus is in the process of offering Russia land for and airbase,40 kilometers from a british airbase, Rt also reports that Cairo and Russia are negotiating dropping the American dollar and increasing trade, Egypt wants wheat and Russia wants fruit I guess.

          If Greece makes a deal with Russia, that could change things I think.

            Feb 08, 2015 08:42 PM

            If memory serves, I believe Egypt is already the largest buyer of wheat out of Ukraine. Syria comes in second or third. I have not seen anything on a deal to drop the dollar and frankly that would come as a pretty big surprise. Which is another way of saying I really doubt it. Egypt is maybe number two behind Israel for US aid and financial support. They fly the US built F-series fighters exclusively. Sometimes RT is just pure propaganda (but you knew that i hope).

            bb
            Feb 09, 2015 09:05 AM

            Bird, RT speaks only truth, the never even “bend” a story even a little bit.

            But Im afraid I did, Egypt and Russia are negotiating to increase trade and discussing using their own currencies, no deal to drop the dollar has been made.

            I need to be more carful.

            If you get back to this tho, what about Greece being helped out by the BRICs?
            Russia has mentioned that.

        Feb 09, 2015 09:45 AM

        Bobbo. Debt can’t be repaid as there would be no system. It’s a debt based system. Is there too much? In some places but low low interest rates can keep the ball rolling for sometime. Your predictions of the who system blowing up is in know ones best interest and we maybe surprised at who’s willing to help who? You will never get the full truths on the what governments are actually doing and planning behind closed doors, just the propaganda fed to the masses. There’s been a 1000 predictions on this and it’s an absolute waist of time. If we bought into the BS from the Doom and gloomers the U.S. woild be split into half a dozen countries by now. It’s Canada who s on the road now with numerous others. USA looks like a well oiled machine compaired to other now. I read from your site umpteen years ago the bond market was going to blow up!? When again? You can’t predict it nor anyone else. I have mention 3 years ago the DOW industrials was going to run and you said then gold would have a bigger move. Then what happend…Gold collapsed .

    Kim
    Feb 08, 2015 08:00 PM

    The IBM letter and story Thnks

      Feb 08, 2015 08:06 PM

      A bit of research showed that a 25% layoff has not occurred as of yet.

    GOLD JUST TOOK OFF…………

    Feb 08, 2015 08:25 PM

    This might be nothing but it does raise the question , what the heck just happened?
    Possible nuke blast in Donetsk, Ukraine 2-8-15
    https://trutube.tv/video/30102/Possible-nuke-blast-in-Donetsk-Ukraine-2-8-15

      Feb 08, 2015 08:24 PM

      That looks real. It is exactly what a nuclear blast would look like. It takes 15 seconds for the blast to reach the person holding the camera from the initial explosion. It looks like a tactical nuke.

        bb
        Feb 08, 2015 08:45 PM

        Published on Feb 8, 2015

        Donetsk. Powerful blast! 08/02/15
        In Donetsk, a massive explosion was heard. Presumably warehouse packed with explosives blew up. video

          Feb 09, 2015 09:32 AM

          And its gone….the video has been censored.

      Feb 08, 2015 08:50 PM

      NATO can’t be in Ukraine.

      How anyone thinks Russia is going to put up with this.

      If this is real. …we will have a nuclear exch. maybe days away

      NATO HAS NO DAMN BUSINESS IN UKRAINE.

      ITS ARMAGEDDON…..seriously.

        bb
        Feb 08, 2015 08:48 PM

        You have armageddon on the brain HH, Russia and China have offered to get Greece out of their “fix”, that could change things.

          Feb 08, 2015 08:57 PM

          BB…..REALLY…..

          Where is NATO going. Good night BB….

          Get some rest.

    Feb 08, 2015 08:38 PM

    Too funny.
    I hope the Gold Astronauts realise they’re going to need more than five (5) bucks to achieve lift-off, eh?

    Feb 08, 2015 08:46 PM

    Steven ever heard of Creece

      Feb 09, 2015 09:26 AM

      Is that what you get if you don’t iron clothes correctly? 😉

      Feb 09, 2015 09:00 AM

      It’s what I get when I don’t put on my glasses!

    Feb 09, 2015 09:24 AM

    Euro might be setting up for a dive. More data needed. I think the market is waiting to see how the Greece situation develops. Also looking for a good entry on TLT that could be lining up for a bounce….but only if it does not violate its lower trend channel which is possible.

    Feb 09, 2015 09:01 AM

    Axel Merk has a more sobering view of the Greece insolvency situation and it is one that should give the Greeks some sleepless nights. If he is correct, Germany will desire that Greece leaves the zone and falls flat on its face which sends a huge message to the rest of the members that lack of participation comes with a nasty price tag. That is definitely a real risk. this is worth listening too….Axel is a pretty bright buy.

    http://usawatchdog.com/everybody-is-trying-to-postpone-the-inevitable-axel-merk/

      Feb 09, 2015 09:02 AM

      I meant pretty bright “guy”…..not buy….sorry.

    Feb 09, 2015 09:09 AM

    Sir:
    Please send Trader Rog’s report mentioned at the end of this article.
    Thank you
    John P

    Feb 09, 2015 09:44 AM

    Not to butt in to much here , but Iran says they wants to destroy Israel. They won’t recognize them so they won’t talk or negotiate peace. Besides that, they say that Israel is the little satan and the U.S. is the big satan. So being that we are next so to speak its to the U.S. ‘s advantage to see Israel survive.

      bb
      Feb 09, 2015 09:52 AM

      Iran hasn’t left their boarders since xerxes, probly spelled that wrong.
      I exclude a few position in Iraq latley to defend from isis.

    Feb 09, 2015 09:51 AM

    Hi All, Please send Trader Rog’s report about IBM.
    Thanks
    James

    Feb 09, 2015 09:07 AM

    Please send me report on IBM , thank you..Mike

    TP
    Feb 10, 2015 10:07 AM

    Please send me report on IBM. Thank you very much. Tom

    Feb 11, 2015 11:25 AM

    GE had 100,000+ layoffs in the late 1980s and early 1990s. In fact it may have been 150,000+ since this link attributes 120,000 to the 1980s and I worked in a GE company in the UK in the early 1990s and there were loads of jobs gone in the UK in 1993 as they moved light source production to Hungary. Aos, the Exchange Rate Mechaniam (ERM) fiasco and recession happened in the UK around that time with massive unemployment. I personally lost my job in 1993.

    So the IBM news isn’t entirely surprising.

    http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Jack_Welch.aspx

    ‘Welch tore into the ossified corporate structure with a vengeance and by the mid-1980s had overseen nearly 120,000 layoffs and earned the nickname “Neutron Jack.”‘