What does the choppy market movements mean moving forward?
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There will be a big press conference later this week with Merkel, Hollande and Putin shaking hands and smiling. Peace in our time will be declared.
In theory, the coventional markets will rise on that front and gold will go down.
Merkel and Hollande will bask in the glory and enjoy what all politicians enjoy – their egos being massaged by tame journalists at press conferences.
Putin will go home and plan his next bit of territory grabbing. He will have the biggest smile of all.
Europe is too old so a good strategy turned bad. If they want to challenge Dollar hegemony and achieve independence they should prepare for hard struggle. Instead they allowed Goldman and the other wall street firms to wrap Greece and other fringe countries in a nice Christmas gift package and allowed to be in the euro. With the unanimous decision
Model, the organization is paralyzed. They has to get rid of these countries quickly and regroup. Make the voting according to economic power. It should also make peace with Russia and form euroAsia economic alliance as Russia suggests. Then their problem will ease off. Otherwise, the region will be permanently damaged. I feel it would be individual countries like Germany and France to make peace with Russia eventually not EU. Then EU is finished, dead.
7 Terrifying Warnings That The Greek Disaster Is Now Set To Catapult The World Into A Global Meltdown
This is an article on kwn,
I know, its unprecedented, astounding, stunning even shocking,
but its actually pretty good.
It discusses the BRICs helping out Greece and the consequences.
7 terrifying factors that the world is going to end. Like last week … and the week before … for the last 6 years. Yawn.
Gary
What about Natural Gas. Will it move up with oil?
It isn’t tied very tightly to oil but I am looking for a bottom in Nat Gas soon.
making money trading the chop as its called today. using preferred stocks and some high quality food stocks. The sheer choppiness is a money maker for me here. this wont last forever , but for the next month or 2 i will take these profits and save them. best to all S
Agreed Scott. I took a profit in a few stocks and also the small profit in JNUG that I purchased on Friday at the close. The markets are so choppy that I thought it may be time to take the winnings off the table and watch for more direction before wading back in.
Al/Cory/Gary – Very good editorial today. I generally agree with Gary’s overview and think we either got the bottom on Friday or will get the bottom in the next few days. Then it really all comes down to how much thrust and to what levels we get a bounce out of this bottom.
A) If we come out with guns blazing and have a big leg up in the few days after the bottom, then we may have a chance at 1305-1308 resistance, 1323 resistance, and a long shot at 1346.80.
****or****
B) If we get the bottom and the bounce is feeble and doesn’t break 1308, then we may start the slow grind down to test the lower ranges of 1220, 1180, and 1140-1137.
Today’s move up wasn’t much, and if the bottom was going to be Friday, it would have been best to close above 1250 or even 1257. Since we just hovered in the 1238-1242 range all day it was very odd and seemed to lack direction or conviction. I’m in wait and see mode for the next 2 days.
Unless I am recalling wrongly, I thought on either Friday’s or the weekend commentary you said that you saw oil bottoming around the end of March or so, and now today you see oil heading higher for the next five weeks or so, which puts it into March. Just a little confused. It seems like a contradiction.
My strategy is to buy a little every day. If oil goes to 70s, sell some and wait for the second wave down. I don’t think it is over. Saudi should have exhausted itself after the second wave push down.
Doc was expecting a bottom in March. I’ve always thought it would occur a little earlier than that. I’m pretty much convinced we got it a week ago.
Mighty quite group today..The calm before the storm?
I noticed gdxj/gdx usually in green most day and mostly sell of end of day. Let’s see if this trend works.
I meant quiet lol
glen;
I think the miners could go either way here. Nice bull flag setup that could break to the upside within a week or two. But, the long term trend is down and the down days have higher volume. Gold has a gap to fill slightly higher but it needs more sideways action before deciding which way to go.
Most of this I believe will be played out based on S&P action (which could go either way). Sort of a wait and see period here.
Thanks for your insights ten! What gap above are you referring to in gold?
GLD gap. It is at the 200 day a couple of points above.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=gld
…and ur right it is spooky quiet everywhere today, including the market. Makes ya wonder.
lol,
The sentiment is one of scared and worried which means possibly a bounce. I noticed a the daily gap you were speaking of. There is one much higher at 25 level..Does it go and fetch that first and then come down? Who the heck really knows. There is a weekly gap lower on gld which should not be discounted.
Tuff times. Like you said it can really go both ways. Are you expecting positive news coming from miners earnings release?
Shad/Matt/LPG/ anyone else who looks at wave counts,
Do you guys believe this is a wave 4 corrective?
It looks like it to me, Glen.
Sure looks it to me as well Matt but the only concerning thing is they say wave 4 should never overlap 1. In this case the 1232.10 should have held but we overlapped it down to 1228 or so but quickly reversed up and closed above it. So im no expert in elliot wave but if there is one in here what are the rules? Some elliot wavers say they have seen overlap before and bull continued higher.
Just dialogue and thx matt for update.
I “may” enter tomorrow but it remains to be seen.
Does anyone know who of the miners begins to report first? This week?
I’m no EW expert either, so I wonder if it makes a difference that there was no overlap if we just look at closing prices (1232.10 vs 1233.30).
The HUI is a long way from overlapping wave 1 and has closed above the 20 day EMA again.
The weekly and daily charts still say buy the dip.
I think it could very well be the wave 4 corrective move, and I’m not sure if last Friday or Tues/Wed of this week will the final bottom. This is why I still expect wave 5 for the remainder of Feb, coming out of this bottom (although the fact that 1240 failed so quickly isn’t as bullish a case, as if Gold could have held above it and does concern me some).
As for the fact that we temporarily moved down below the 1232 level and then quickly recovered on Friday really isn’t a big deal. The emphasis is really on the close and it was still higher than the Dec 9th close, so we are OK there. Having said that, if we had shot down to 1220 on Friday for most of the day and then made it back up to 1233 at close, then that would have been a more extreme case.
What concerns me is if we drop too much more on Tues or Wed, because that will mute the wave 5 and limit the upside left in this move up from November. It’s a crap-shoot until we get through the next few days.
Hello Glenfidish,
FWIW, I don’t know how to count the waves properly. So I refrain from doing so.
Buuuuuttttt…. I try to pay attention to those who I believe are good at this.
I try to take waves, when possible, into account of the whole technical picture.
Best to you,
LPG
If so, this is where you would be a buyer.
Tenyear are you asking LPG a question or stating that in your opinion this is where you would be a buyer?
…was responding to your elliot wave comment….If you are a believer in Elliot waves and you believe this is a wave 4 corrective move, then you would be a buyer here because wave 4 corrective moves are buying opportunities before wave 5 higher.
I’m not much of a wave follower but I do know a little about it. I pretty much have my own technical requirements for buying and selling.
I agree with your comments Tenyear. The time to buy is at the bottom of Wave 4 to ride up the Wave 5. That is why I bought JNUG on Friday at the close (just in case it was the bottom). However, I sold that position today for a small profit, because I didn’t like the way gold only bounced a little up to the 1238-1242 range and got stuck in the channel the rest of the day.
Now if Gold skyrockets up tomorrow, then that was a dumb move, but they’ll still be time to catch the remaining part of Wave 5 if that is the case, and there is no shame in booking profits. My concern this afternoon was that Friday may not have been the bottom and this may come in on Tues/Wed. If that happens, then I’ll buy later this week at the low and hold for the ride up for a week or two into Wave 5.
Of course, if Gold falls below 1232 and heads for 1220-1218, then Glen you are correct that Wave 4 will have overlapped Wave 1 and the pattern will broken down. There will still be a bounce, but we’d have to flip the script and see the move up from November as an ABC corrective wave up in an overall Bear market. That would foretell lower lows.
Gary what lower targets you have on oil on next lower leg?
Maybe 35ish ????
Thank you Gary
Shad,
I think we can still go down to 1220/1217 without that giving way intraday say today and close above the 1232.10 and it would be a good sign. Like I said yesterday that “its has been known to overlap on an intraday but not closing price. I see the 1220/1217 equally as a final line of defense. 1217 lower and this will not be a new rally high.
I believe we will have an answer by today/tomorrow
Id really like to see hui hit the bottom of the bollinger band around 186. I feel good we are headed there. If we can get there with gold holding 1232.10 we may have a bottom. Thus far no bottom. We may be looking at thursday/friday.
Matt/shad/ if you had to guess based on technicals red or white candle on the weekly for miners?
White. I’ve been expecting them to finish this week higher and the odds still look ok.
Great! Matt by the looks of things currently it looks as though we need to come back down later this afternoon and possibly catch that 186..What do you think? I put in some stink bids and im pissed they didnt get triggered. Im not budging lol.
Id really like one more shot end of day or tomorrow but i would agree that we are going to get a big pop. I just hope for my sake the pop is after my fills 🙂
If my count is correct, we move tomorrow/thursday. I expect 28 days up including weekends. So roughly March 6 the latest 10th should be a sell day.
You all heard it here first. 🙂
And yes one last thing, if by that first week we are not above 1347, im bailing out.
I think we *could* see 186ish but I don’t know if it would happen today or not. There are definitely buyers and the 233 ema on the 60 min chart held today.
The daily chart looks good and I think we are finally going to get the “Golden Cross” that I’ve been waiting for (55 day EMA crossing above the 233 day EMA) in about 3-5 weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p35614055394&a=370482078
Thanks for pointing that out. Hopefully its stays above for a long haul.
I would love me some 175-168 lol
Damn you guys are bullish here on forum. Sorry to break it to ya but this sentiment has to die firest or as i usually say get murked first. lol. Miners are untradable. Have not corrected with gold down. Yes that means strength but i do not believe yet gold can mustard rally to 1347.
Stewie,
Read my post, they are not super bullish. I have not bought in trading position. We are due for a cycle low in gold any minute now. If you do trade then you should at least begin to nibble. Im yet to get orders filled. I was as bullish as you say id be in already.
You have made it clear before in your eyes it will not break 1347. I have it on my calendar lol. I don’t mind murks or murkings or all kind of destruction as I get a sale and i buy sales.
The sentiment the last two days is evident stewie. I had no one two talk to last twoo days but matt and shad here and there. Look at the amount of post. Everyone is scared and hiding behind closet.
Bullish days are usually 200 post days.
glen i hear you brother. I’ll watch it for now. See what happens. I’m scared as it did not correct the way i wanted it and as soon as i get in it will lol
lol, seems always the case..
Yes, I am very bullish. How many others here are? Chris, Al, and Cory don’t sound bullish at all.
As for sentiment, the BPGDM is at a level that allows for huge upside.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p28046751388&a=384167210
It’s at 50 so to be says it’s bullish. I like to buy when it’s annihilated or at bottom. I bought gdxj bottom . 20 would suffice for me now but not 50 after 170pts rally with uncorrected properly miners. It’s obvious bulls are handing onto their miner stocks. Maybe i’m buying unrealistic?
It’s actually at 40 — lower than where it was just before First Majestic went up 10x. Don’t get me wrong, lower is better for buying but I think new extreme lows so close to the last ones would be bad for the bull right now.
On my chart above, look at the action after the zero reading in 2008. It flew to 80 then dropped to 30 then topped near 90. In ’08, it hit zero during just one week. Between October and December we’ve seen a zero reading in four weeks. It might be a very long time before it goes to zero again, imo. You still might get 20 or 30 though, who knows?
Stewie,
Your approach is quite fine in my books. I believe what matt and me see is a continuation pattern from the november lows. WIth that being said we need to take one last crack at 1347. Sooner rather the later as gary has stated cycle is running out of time. He will get a move it just remains to be seen how big. The hard question is do you get in todays lows?tomorrow?friday? gamble till monday?
The correction that you are looking for would imo invalidate what me/shad/matt are expecting which is a turn now rather then later and go and attack that 1347. What might trigger it? i really don’t know. When things are quiet usually a pop occurs.
Stewie,
Maybe i’m buying unrealistic?
If this is headed towards 1347 and north then yes its unrealistic to expect 23 on gdxj. However in these markets anything is possible lol. Id say the bulls don’t want to hand over there shares from november low. Bids are not being filled and volume is tight. That’s what im reading.
No you’re being realistic. It just bothers me that gold went up 177$ and corrected somewhat and miners barely sneezed. I would have liked 1220-1200 overshot on gold but i know what you mean about not getting lower.
Re-posting here what I’ve just posted under Rick’s interview today.
********
Hello all,
I am gonna put down below a few of my current thoughts.
Although these are very simple in nature, please note they do not bring any answer to any question. Rather, there are questions which bear asking ourselves.
I think it’s fair to say that the biggest question marks at the moment are 1) Greece/Grexit/EU survival and 2) Ukraine conflict etc…
Now, let’s forget all the drama headlines etc…both surrounding Greece and Ukraine and see what are the options and who wants what (according to me, at least).
GREECE:
1) The ECB doesn’t wanna give any concessions apparently, and doesn’t wanna lose face. Nor does Germany, apparently.
2) Greece Syriza wants to keep its promises, and has had enough of troika packages.
3) the EU political elite and large businesses and large banks don’t want Greece out as this likely means the beginning of the end for the Euro and potentially the EU in its current form
4) Here’s the interesting part, IMHO, which is not being picked up properly: Greece wants a bridge loan to come up with a 4yr plan by June. Simply put, they wanna buy time. The ECB doesn’t seem ready to give this bridge loan, but maybe another entity, somewhere in the world, can ?
Let me leave it there for the moment and move on to Ukraine.
UKRAINE:
1) Russia doesn’t want NATO troups close to its borders
2) EU countries such as France/Germany want to keep decent relations w. Russia
3) EU countries don’t really want to foot the bill for the mess of Ukraine, let alone for the large ones (France/Germany) likely don’t wanna to be seen sending weapons nor seen as supporting the sending of weapons
4) Ukrainian government needs money and show that it is in charge, not just a muppet
5) regions in the East want a good dose of autonomy/independance.
LET’S MOVE ON but keep all of this in our mind.
Now, over the past few days, Hollande and Merke were in Moscow to discuss Ukraine. Personally, I would be that they were in Moscow ALSO to discuss matters related to Greece.
SO NOW WE’VE SET THE STAGE and HAD A LOOK AT WHAT PARTIES WANT, LET ME ASK THE QUESTIONS:
Question 1):
WHAT IF the Ukrainian situation is ball park sorted this week with the upcoming 4 parties discussions on Wednesday? Would this mean a desescalation of the conflict and a halt to Russian sanctions from the EU ?
Question 2) :
WHAT IF Greece’s current impasse is sorted for up to June with some entity providing a few billions of Euro up to June (for ex. the Russian Central Bank still has plenty of spare US$ reserves which it could convert into a few EUR bn).
WHAT IF (1) and (2) just above occur ? And if it they do both occur:
a) what would be the consequence on the conventional market moods ? rally or correction ?
b) what would occur to the Euro ? lower or higher ?
c) what would be the perception of global risk: up or down ?
d) in the context of a), b), c), what would be the perception of gold as a refugee/haven ?
-> To me, the answers to a, b, c seem INTUITIVELY pretty straight forward so d in this context becomes straight forward too somehow.
That’s it from me.
Personally, these are the questions I have asked myself very lately, and I’ve got my own views on a few possible outcomes to question 1) and 2).
All I can say, is that IMHO both questions/matters are linked – maybe I’m wrong but I repeat that I think they are linked.
To this fundamental framework of questions with potential outcomes, I put a layer of technical analysis to see whether the charts seem to start to indicate some of the potential outcomes I have in mind. If my favored outcomes + the technicals start to align, then I start to have an investment case (or a investment reduction case ) which give me more comfort level for the next steps (which are: how to benefit from this).
CAVEAT:
I understand that I have only tackled here GREECE and UKRAINE as these are the big flavors of the day.
Of course there are large serious issues: China’s debt, Japan’s bond market… But this, sorry to say that the market KNOWS already. Then, there are the “newspapers headlines”: Al Qaeda this, ISIS that, IRAN this/that… to me, that’s a lot of bla-bla in the grand scheme of financial markets.
And finally, there are the blackswans: forgive me for not being able to name them, as they are by definition impredictable (and if you can name a blackswan, it is not one, and chances are it is likely pretty much priced in by the market).
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG