Everyone seems to be on the same page regarding the markets
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Sorry LPG, but your comment makes no sense to me. Why don’t you say specifically what you mean without the childish “M-w-a-hhhhhh” nonsense because it is just a distraction I don’t appreciate.
Birdman,
Many people would agree that A LOT of things I say actually don’t make sense.
That especially occurs when I say things that should not be taken too seriously…
That’s cool with me.
Best to you,
M-w-a-hhhhhh again 🙂
LPG – w. love
It seems to me that when everyone abandons an asset and don’t see any driver for for that asset class, that this is precisely when there can be an unique upside surprise, especially when technicals indicate a strong likelihood of something happening. This usually accelerates the pop up on the very front end due to a short squeeze as Rick so often correctly points out. During a short squeeze the news and fundamentals aren’t as big of a driver as the need to unwind positions before their neighbor does, so the squeeze itself becomes the driver.
There have been a ton of times over the last few years where there were huge fundamental drivers that should have moved Gold up and nothing happened, or gold actually fell, and many sat around scratching their heads in confusion. As has been mentioned on this show by most of the commentators, the fundamentals don’t seem to be affecting gold. So, this is inversely true that sometimes an asset or security will take off and there doesn’t seem to be a good fundamental reason why. Sure, people and news anchors go sifting over news looking for a scapegoat that nobody saw coming as their alibi, but the Global Marketplace doesn’t care with Goldman or JPMorgan or CNBC thinks should happen.
Case in point. A month ago in early-mid January, when people were getting a little bearish due to the dip in Gold , there were a few people (including me) that technically felt gold should break the 1280 level, but there was no real reason for it other than technical analysis, and the sentiment wasn’t that hot. Then from out of nowhere, the Swiss announced they were going to unpeg their currency from the Euro, and Canada and Australia announced surprise rate cuts. Everyone that was short ducked for cover, there was a short squeeze, and most of the people that track gold missed the trade. Then a week later when everyone got bullish, Gold topped and a number of technical traders called for a correction even in the face of all the Europe nonsense. People didn’t see gold falling much, but when it fell on the very day of the news that most thought would be bullish for the metals, and has come all the way down to a precise target on Friday and today, “nobody saw that move down coming” and they got confused.
In effect, this market has been ignoring the fundamentals in the general stock market indexes (DOW, NASDAQ, and S&P) for years , and that is also true for many commodities. This puts the game in the hands of technical analysis and sentiment indicators. Technically gold is due to bottom very soon and then bounce up, and with sentiment slipping again and becoming bearish, it is the perfect time to put in the low and then pop “surprising” people once again.
At this point there is not a fundamental driver for the bounce up, but it is, nonetheless, uncanny how these new events seem to come from out of nowhere, that don’t always even add up, but they become the justification for the technical move that was expected. So, I don’t think we will see the driver until it is too late and the move has been made.
The jury is still out on whether we bottomed on Friday (today Tues had gold trading right back down to the exact same range as Friday again, but then bounced again for the second time from around the 1232 level). Tomorrow (Wed) could be a contender if we haven’t already seen it. The bottom rarely comes out and rings a bell to let you know it just happened, but it seems like we are in the neighborhood.
I do agree with Chris’s comments that when the main stream media and retail investors flock back to Gold, that it will be a “safer” time to enter the space and “limit losses”, but it will also limit gains. 15-30% of the move up will have happened by that point, and the remainder will be fighting to get orders filled at higher and higher prices once it is self evident.
I don’t think buying gold/silver or select mining companies around these levels is “Being the Hero” and, while I normally agree with the majority of what Chris T. has to talk about, I disagree that people risk losing 80-90% of their money, like they would have in the fall from 1900 gold and inflated valuations on the miners with terrible cost controls in 2011. Today, the miners have already had the huge 80-90% haircut, have reduced capital expenditures, worked for over 3 years on containing cost, and Gold has fallen quite a bit from its high.
We are at an inflection point where gold could reverse the 3 1/2 year Bear market soon if the leg up can take out 1347 and specifically 1382. I am starting to have my doubts as days keep on ticking by, and it seems the move up will still happen very soon, but it will likely be more muted after 1250-1240 failed to hold.
This means that is becoming more likely that we pop up briefly for 1-2 weeks (for no reason other than just technical) and then we grind down into the late spring/early summer and put in the final bottom along with the rest of the commodity sector.
Arthur Schopenhauer, the German philosopher pointed out that when any great idea comes to fruition it goes through 3 stages:
1) The idea is ridiculed or scoffed at
2) Next the idea is strongly opposed, and sometimes violently opposed
3) The idea suddenly becomes self-evident
This is how most of the technically forecast models are received by people that feel their opinions or fundamentals are challenged by the analysis. If they feel the world is in tension and gold should go up, but the technicals point to downside pressure. They laugh, they scoff, the get angry, they pound on the table, and then when the move down happens they are so “confused” or there must be manipulation. Then when they don’t see any hope for gold and get bearish or jaded, but things appear technically like they should go up, they laugh at this, they scoff at the “gold bug” that was a “gold bear” in the prior downward call, they get angry at the message (or more often the messenger and they miss the message), and then when gold goes up they are “confused” but there is never manipulation on the way up : – ) ….just some news event that people grasp for to look for the meaning of the move.
They miss the point the whole way along, and when they do enter the marketplace, it is much later in the cycle and while definitely safer, it is less lucrative. It does really depend on someone’s time horizons and particular criteria for investing. Buying when there is doubt or blood in the streets, when nobody cares about the investment is called buying low. When mainstreet retail investors flock into an asset class, that is called sell into the strength or “selling high”. If you wait for everyone and their cab driver to get positive on gold again (you’re a little late to the party at that point). That’s called buying $45-$49 silver in 2011. Woops!
This week should end on a more frisky note than the last 2 days of doldrums
P.S. – Picked up a small position back in JNUG today. I had bought JNUG on Friday when gold got down in the 1232 zone we had been discussing as support level from Dec 9th, just in case that was bottom of Wave 4, and the beginning of the Wave 5 uptrend. Yes, it very briefly went down to the 1228-29 zone, but quickly snapped right back and then hovered +/- 1232 (1230-1234) zone in a channel for the rest of Friday, so there was no doubt that a key area of support had held into the close.
I do find it interesting that we were discussing that bottom was still not in at the 1254 intra-day low on Thur the 29th, which then rebounded to 1283 by the close on the 30th. During that whole week before the most recent fall with gold in the 1270s & 1260s many were uber bullish, but the technicians were calling for 1240. We had a new focus on the 3rd, 4th, and 6th and discussed 1232, based on the Dec 9th peak. Now it has come down and tagged that area twice and rebounded. Coincidence or is it technical analysis?
For the record, it is support and not a bullet-proof shield so oscillating back and forth around that area and holding all day shows there is support and congestion of buying and selling in that zone.
This was a pretty accurate target that we put on the table when analyzing technical numbers, and we were saying emphatically that we expected it to happen soon. Then when that is exactly what happened, most people acted like they were surprised. I was surprised that 1240 fell so quickly, but not that the 1232 zone was support, and we had laid out the case for this target in a number of difference discussions with Glen. A short term correction was discussed over an over by Doc & Gary and tons of people on the blog all through the end of January and beginning of February, but I guess the people surprised by the $33 drop in Gold weren’t really listening.
On this Monday, personally I didn’t like the odd channeling and lack of conviction, so I sold my Friday JNUG position at a nice little profit. My plan was to wait until Wed/Thursday to buy the low, but when I saw the waterfall decline from overnight trading into the Tues session and Gold returned right back down to 1231-1232 level of support right on the dot; then this got my attention. One reason is that Gold still did not violate the Wave 1 leg up to 1232 from Dec 9th. (no overlap Glen : – )
So, when that happened and there was a second bounce out of this zone, then I got back in JNUG with my first tier (33% of what I want to allocate). That gives me two more tiers that I can average down with if we fall out of bed down to 1220-1218 this week. However, when something cascades down that fast 2 times, in less than a week, and bounces off the same exact zone, then that shows there is definitely some strength there. Will it be tested again, or was that the bottom? I dunno, but I took a small position just in case.
Looks like today is going to be the low we’ve been waiting on and the 1220-1218 support needs to hold. Today may be a good time to take a position for the bounce.
The prior level of support has given way to lower lows, so it is looking more like the rally out of November was an A-B-C counter-trend rally, so we are going to need to put in lower lows in the Spring/summer and bottom with the whole commodity complex.
Shad, what kind of odds would you put on a lower low for gold this spring/summer?
I still think the low is in but want to see 1218 hold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76472544160&a=385093789
Well personally I believe this summer that we’ll test 1180 and then the 1140-1137 zone again. What are the odds of breaking 1137? (60-70% is my guess). I think for it to be the overall low in the bear market that it has to wipe out all remaining bullish sentiment from the most hardened bulls. For this to happen I think 1050 is the target or just north of 1000. That will really bum people out and they’ll throw in the towel right at the bottom. If the article Lawrence referenced is correct then I could see that being the point where the fund managers jump on the train and I’ll be there with them.
Jim Rogers has repeatedly said he expects around a 50% retracement in Gold from its highs near 1900. That puts his target around the 950 to 1000 level. Several analysts on traditional media have thrown out 965 and 983. Jim followed up this forecast with the statement, “I hope at that time I am smart enough to buy gold…a lot of it.”
On February 11, 2015 at 9:57 am,
Matthew says:
Thanks. Wow, 60-70%. I won’t be throwing in the towel, but lower lows would be a bummer to me.
I guess the contrarian in me likes the fact that Rogers and so many others keep calling for 1050-950. In 2009, Roubini said that gold bugs are stupid if they think gold is going to 1500 (it was just over 1200 at the time). Just like in the summer of 2006, everyone was saying it was over for gold while I was guaranteeing to friends and family that it was not. Roubini was telling his flock to buy in August, 2011! I believe that the average retail investor is aligned with those who expect lower lows.
Accumulators of an asset talk it down; distributors talk it up.
Btw, I think 987 is much more interesting than 965 or 983. 😉
I agree on all accounts Matthew, and many times with major banks or funds are talking down an asset, they are quietly accumulating it as it dips.
For the different levels here is the best I can make of it for the Spring/Summer correction:
1) I am using 1180 because there are 2 important levels. A low on July 30th, 2010 of $1181.40, and a prior peak on Nov. 23rd, 2009 of $1176.70. I see that range of 1177-1181 as being a support zone and so 1180 is around number that some may use with stop loss positions.
2) I am using the 1137 most recent low and as the next level of support, and that will be an obvious level to everyone.
3) I’ve been using 1050 as a nice round number on the next step down, but probably should be more specific at $1044.70 from Oct 30th, 2009.
4) after just spending a few minutes to review things below that, I really don’t see support again until the Feb 20th, 2009 peak of $993.20. (I mis-typed that in the last message at 983. Sorry about the typo).
I like 987 because:
1) It’s the start of a countdown 9-8-7…
2) It’s a fibonacci number, and…
3) It is roughly pi squared (9.8696044) 😮
good conversation guys and matt good to see your open minded for all the folks who doubt you 🙂
That’s not a shot at you bird in general.
But is 987 the final countdown…….?
987 is a really interesting number and the Fib targets have merit. I am more simple-minded and usually use prior peaks and troughs to anticipate support and resistance levels. For me the Feb 20th, 2009 peak of $993.20 is easier to get my head around.
I find that there are a million ways to dissect charts and come to various conclusions (trend lines, bollinger bands, MACD, Fibonnaci retracements, pivot points, and on and on….). I am not smart enough to do some of the fancier chart-work, so I watch videos and listen to audio of people that do to gain their wisdom on the subject. It ends up that most of the time people end up using the peaks and troughs to mark lines or turns or bounces of levels, etc… so I just use those for support and resistance levels.
It should be noted that both the 1232 level ended up being strong support levels on Friday and Tuesday, and the 1219 level was strong support today. That doesn’t mean they are the bottom, but when a sharp downward move stops right in a predicted resistance zone, it does validate the concept.
I targeted those numbers because they correlated with prior peaks or troughs and they were more accurate than some of the more complex math people do to arrive at their targets. Sometimes simple is better.
As an added thought, I typically use the closing price as my targets, but also take into account an intra-day high or low as other areas of focus if there is a big difference between the close and this number.
What did Birdman say? He”ll be back with different scree name btw.
Don’t be ridiculous, Stewie. Same name as always. You think I live under a rock or something?
no i just missed the whole thing what Al said. It went over my head. I thought you got banned.
Doc, not sure why Cory / AL didn’t have you in on the convo yesterday re vaccinations but would be interested to have your opinion on the matter 😉
Exploration drives these stocks more than the gold price, and they are drilling in South America, Mexico, Africa, and Australia right now. If you’re on the sidelines you may miss the next bonanza!
Hi Doc,
I’ve been holding out for an opportunity to accumulate Theralase. It looks like the consolidation of the last weeks is going to break to the downside, do you see anything in the charts to forecast a turn, I’m expecting support a further 4 cent below the current price but the weekly chart doesn’t look too pretty at the moment.
Thanks
Much appreciated
Simon
Simon; interesting that you brought this up. The momentum indicators on the weekly are heading south but not in a “scary manner”. I’ve been waiting for the stock to move down and I’ll be purchasing on this pull back very soon—probably at about $.40. I’ll try to remember to post under my column when I do. I’m expecting the momentum indicators to level off soon and that’s when I add to my postion—of course not investment advice.
Simon; I meant the daily momentum indicators instead of weekly. The stock could even go sub $.40—I’m looking at a number of technicals to let me know when to purchase but I’ve been waiting for this opportunity.
I’m in the same boat regarding patiently waiting, always good to have another opinion.
Much appreciated.
Doc
Any thoughts on OIL
David; I personally am staying away from the oil market right now. It’s for a number of reasons. 1. There’s an ongoing supply issue. 2. The Saudis aren’t changing their tune. 3. the technicals tell me we have a short term bounce and then the probability is we move lower. 4. The pressure is still to the downside on almost all commodities and this will persist into late spring. That tells me oil is not an island to its’ self. 5. The dollar is consolidating and then should have one more large move to the upside. Hope this helps. Doc.
What the heck is with this Bird stuff Al?
Are you going to ban him again? even without HH attacking? heck wasn’t JJ enough?
How about stopping people from attacking Bird personaly and just be greatfull for excellent interpetations of the market.
Man do people around here ever hold grudges, how petty.
I can just see the attacks coming now. kidstuff, we are trying to invest people.
bb; I agree. There are so many valuable contributors on this site. Many times I’ll check out things based on comments and it’s helpful to me personally. Bird is one of those astute contributors that often gets me to stay objective.
Thanks so much Richard. That means a lot to me…. Especially coming from you.
Yes Richard, there are many valuable contributers here, its only that Bird gets attacked personally for his opinions that bugs me.
I disagree with Bird now and then (and others) but Im not going to attack personally.
And thanks Doc for what you and everyone else does everyday, cant and don’t say it enough really.
Are you blind to HIS attacks, bb? Eye for an eye…
There is no way that I would ban Bird. Why would I do that?
BB, Al has never banned me. The only reason I was absent was because they are in the process of installing a new telecom network and fiber optic cables in the Rift Valley. That has caused a lot of grief for everyone I know and some guys lost a lot of business during the blackout periods. It is getting better day by day though…I even have confidence to leave a trade open over the weekend lately!
250,000 Dollars? LMAO!
Don’t take life seriously folks – nobody gets out alive.
+1 Bob UK
Ha! Funny Bob. (I think you might be right!)
ditto BOB UK…………..well said…………….
Just a short note Al…..I am really unhappy about the show you hosted yesterday and the tone it expressed. I am indeed a supporter of Israel and will not apologize for my strong personal beliefs in respect of the real threats the country faces. In that regard I am unequivocal and will not back down. The whole region runs more on emotion than good common sense. Cool heads need to prevail. We cannot take sides when the stakes are so high nor pass judgement on any one country without appreciating that all our fates lie entwined in what is taking place there. I really fear for the future of the Middle East. I fear for all of us actually. I worry about the proliferation of dangerous weapons in unstable nations against a backdrop of past hatreds and misunderstandings. If anyone pushes the button here it is all our God Damned asses on the line. Do not misunderstand the consequences because at the end of the day these countries are just a proxy for a much larger conflict between East and West if one ever begins. So please be more responsible with your commentary. This is not just some excuse of a story to boost your daily ratings.
Thanks Bird.
First of all, we truly don’t do anything for ratings. That is simply immoral.
I have good friends on both sides of this fence.
I do not agree with Bob’s feelings about the leaders of Israel. I have said many times that they are just cover the country’s ads (welcome to auto correct) in my opinion. He does not agree. Okay, that is his opinion.
I respect the president when he says “we simply need verifiable and continued verification that there are no nuclear weapons”. I mean stop and think about it, if they wanted to push Israel into the sea, I believe they could put together a group that would at least try.
I have spoken over the years to a lot of Iranians and trust me, they are not assailed holes.(auto correct again!)
I practically grew up in a Jewish family and many of my close friends are Jews.
Bird, stupid violence is j u st that. Stupid and I abhor it.
I can share my feelings about this Al and say I am worried as hell. There is indeed a cycle of war and we are on the up-slope of the curve now which just means each day is a little more dangerous than the one before. I appreciate what you have written and I do think you mean well. Maybe I am superstitious though. I don’t even want to talk about what may or may not come to pass between the regional players. I have lived over here a very long time. My home at various times has been in Amman, Jordan, in Addis Abeba, Ethiopia, In Jerusalem, Cairo, Tel Aviv, Nairobi and many other cities. I have lived in Gaza too which might surprise some of the people here so I think I have a good sense of the politics of the region. I worry. I worry a lot. I am afraid that some idiot will pull the trigger if he has it in his control and that will affect all our lives in the worst possible way. I really pray that nobody else gets the bomb because the world we love just does not need that shit right now. Thanks for getting back to me by the way. I really prefer we stay friends.
I AGREE BIRDMAN ME TO I SUPPORT ISRAEL !
Well Bird, as you know I disapprove of what Israel has been doing to the palistinians.
With that said, I also disapprove of the Americans over throwing governments and murdering millions, I also hold my own government responsible for not providing clean water to so many in Canada. Not to mention past and present shames.
But I do whole heartedly agree with your point.
With these weapons now, a big enough error on the part of these psychopaths and we are all toasty.
Maybe our beloved HH will prove to be right yet.
Glad to see you are still around, my own self interest I suppose, but I for one recognised you as extremely valuable the day you started posting here, I rally don’t care if anyone else understands that or not.
And you provide a good laugh now and then too, don’t lose the attitude. lol
Bird is the word yo. Please don’t sack him!
I want to make a point about Bob Moriarity too, the REASON he is so Isreal opposed is they keep attacking and manipulating his COUNTRY.
Why shouldn’t he be opposed?
He does not live in “his country”.
Belgium antwerp diamond world is totally controlled by jews ! And much more ! I SUPPORT ISRAEL ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOLlkrNrMjs
Maybe you all so don’t love Israel ! The west can’t bomb ISRAEL ! Sade ! Look your selfs ! Soo you need to by a American to understan Israel . You will never look the catolice jesuits ! Never !
ALL YOU NEED IS GOOD TV SENSATION AND YOU WILL SAND YOUR CHILDREN to war ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlLmCbHX5Zs
A lot of people with the means left, not because they wanted to, but because they didn’t want to live in a police state.
Some, like Rogers, left to raise his children to give his kids a better future, so there are a few reasons not to stay in the states. Doug Casey for example provided many reasons to leave for years and pretty much everything he said has come to pass, scary when you think about how right he was and what he sees coming.
Just because Bob prefers to live elsewhere, doesn’t mean he does not consider the states his country.
Actually, I bet he is a little more than angry to see hats happened/happening to it.
But what is he supposed to do? The way I see it, they killed Kenedy and all his support, they killed MLK, freedom of speech, I just listened to a Jay Taylor interview about the hypocracy of march for free speech in France. Basically, we don’t have it.
The constitution is meaningless, and those that keep referring to it are frankly deluded now
I find it funny I defend both Bird and Bob. But both make darn good arguments.
Hows that for a response to a simple statement you made Al? lol
Keep up the good work. Sure appreciate it.
You leave the best common sense comments on this site, bb.
I also doubt very much Bob is antisemetic, I don’t believe he is a member of the KKK or some underground NAZI organisation either.
Anti-Israel and anti-Semitic are two different things. You can opine against any foreign country if you can go against your own.
Yup, I agree Lawrence, then there is Zionists who are just one group of Jews, which can also be difficult to differentiate from Israel.
Ron Paul has been right forever, we should just plain not be involved.
I think you can safely relate Israel with zionists. I believe there are lot of people in US strongly against Zionism. It is also unpopular in the third world. It mostly not anti Jewish. Third world countries wouldn’t care a bit about Jewish since they might never see one. The problem is that they fear to be invaded as well so they are sympathetic to Palestine.
Bob is definitely not anti Jewish.
You are a smart man, Lawrence.
Al…u have mentioned numerous times of late about being on the sidelines regarding gold and PM stocks. Does this mean u sold all your positions in juniors u bought prior to 2014 ? Or does it just mean u r not adding to your current positions?
I have not sold any positions that I did not previously announce. I do some buy but limited Latest was Natcore Technology as announced.
can we get off the israel schtik…? it goes nowhere.
forget it…let it go-
Moriarty comes across as very honorable man.
Exceptional…
I went back into GDX last Friday and gave up yesterday and sold.
1220/1217 last line of defense?
I think so Glen. We had mentioned that there was strong support around 1250-1240, 1232, and 1220-1218 for the last few weeks. I really thought we had a 60-70% chance of rebounding from the 1232 level, since we have tagged that area twice and closed on Friday and Tuesday above that level from Dec 9th.
Now, that we have approached the 1220-1218 level it is looking like the Wave 4 leg will officially overlapped Wave 1. This means the move out of November was likely just an A-B-C countertrend move in an overall bear market still. This also foretells that, while we may get a nice bounce out of this bottom, that we likely don’t have the juice to take out 1347 or 1382, and will put in the major “Low” everyone is looking for in the overall Gold bear down from 2011 in Spring/Summer of this year.
After that, we should come out of that Low in Late March-May (?) with a 5 Wave uptrend pattern.
Shad, I read an article about insider talking about currency intervention in 2013. This bear trend looks like an last resort currency intervention strategy talked about in the article, creating a bear trend to bring every fund on board. It is not natural and may break like Swiss currency peg. Just my two cents.
I agree with that Lawrence. The planners very successfully bought themselves some time.
The writer of the article was a student of a professor who was working in PPT for years. He disclosed the strategy after he was drunk. The stragety is that the more the odds is against them, they will hit harder to convince everyone to trade with them.
Very interesting thoughts Lawrence. Well if we do start a new 5 wave down from 1308, completeing Wave 1 down today (or tomorrow), and Wave 2 starting up through Feb/early March, and so on… then the bottom in the late spring/summer, will be the time that many fund managers get on the escalator up. That would seem like a good point to take long term positions along with the cronies.
Thanks Lawrence for insight.
Shad
Good Points. Im yet to enter. So your thinking a summer low as appose to ocober/november low? How many bear market lows have you ever seen in the summer shad/matt/lpg/lawrence/doc/gary?
Yes, I find that seasonally the months of March and May are rough on Gold for the last 3 years of this bear market. Sept and October are typically good months for the metals, so I would not expect a bottom during that timeframe.
I thought we had a chance here to break the larger downward trend, but with Gold falling this far, I think we’ll have a pop up from here, then one last corrective wave down in the March-May zone, maybe June dummer doldrums. Then the balance of 2015 should be taking out those targets of 1347, 1382, and beyond.
Majority of lows are in summer like end of june or july.
Lawrence im speaking of major lows? 2008 was fall..
Do you still believe that?
Oh, seasonal lows are usually in sumemr. Major lows are driven mostly by other factors not by calendar. But I never see a big low in Feburary though.
Lawrence that is why I ask. People are calling for a major low. Another lower low here and now in summer. Im yet to see one but maybe im wrong.
Others?
The reason i ask is because shad/gary/not if doc see a major low in summer. I find it unlikely but i have no crystal ball.
I will have my money ready for it anyway. This is not a real market so you never know. Seasonal lows are used to facilitate attacks. There is a fair chance for it. But when everyone think the same way, it may not happen, like last year.
So then your saying this is a possible wave 5 down into a final bottom that will start major 1 of 5 up? lol..
Ha. No, I am actually saying that the 5 wave down pattern ended in Nov of last year, and then since the November lows, we did an A-B-C corrective or “counter-trend” move back up.
Based on the further lows today, I think at 1308 we started a new 5 wave down, and we are completing Wave 1 today, and starting Wave 2. I expect the rally that we will have will be a counter Wave 2 through Feb/early March, then a Wave 3 Down in March, Wave 4 up in April, and Wave 5 Down in May for the bottom. This will likely be the big bottom and end the bear.
Then in the summer we start the new 5 Wave up, for the first time in 4 years. Obviously that is a much longer range forecast than normal, and the waves will not be perfectly bracketed within one month and will stretch across months, but that is the general pattern I expect to see play out, based on us breaking 1240 and 1232 now.
Shad,
I will keep that in mind as it is a good possibility.
Anyway this can be a corrective wave 2 we are putting in with 3/4/5 yet to come?
Wave counts can change on a dime from what I read. Personally I like to buy weakness but sometimes weakness can be a falling knife lol..
Yes, I must admit that could be true, but only if this leg up were take out 1308 and get quite a bit higher, and I struggle to see how we have enough ummmph to get us up there before March madness, PDAC curse, Sell in May and go away, starts…..
You are correct that if this rally takes off with rocket fuel, that we could have had wave 1 from Nov low to Jan high, and Wave 2 from Jan high to today (or very soon) when we confirm the low is in.
I’ll say this though, if we break 1220-1218 level of support, then I find it very unlikely this was the Wave 2 down, with the bounce turning into Wave 3 up. I was hoping that was going to be the case if we could have only dropped down into the mid 1240-1250 range. When we sailed through that, I placed my attention on the 1232 level as the last stop, and that held for a while but broke today, as you mentioned, in the smaller pattern since Nov, this potential Wave 4 has now overlapped Wave 1
I just re-read you post Glen and realized that is what you just said. I am sorry…..
Yes, I think you nailed it and we are in the new 5 wave down into the final bottom, and then will start the major 1 of 5 up. That’s what is looks like.
short interest increased across the board for miners ending January 31/2014
Something to keep in mind, however they could be covering that same short in these past two weeks..
Glen, Primero Mining announces earnings tomorrow; any thoughts on what to expect? I’m assuming you’ve heard of Primero. 😉
Matt,
It is my unbiased belief that most miners will report better then expected earnings. I believe next quarter will be even better. Lowe fuel+higher price of gold=better then previous quarters.
Conway is in my top 3 ceo’s 🙂 hands down.
The P&F price objective is C$10.75
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p21766306432&a=379852816
stewie no one to talk to!
Do you see all that bullishness? I really don’t..
As chartster would say, here comes 500 gold. greek confidence..gold to the basement.. Worst investment. No shine. no one cares. beware.
US Government just wants to make sure US dollar is the only place to go. While all other countries try to cheapen their currency to stay competitive. US is forcing dollar to rise and close all the other doors. Even in the midium term US will suffer drain of industry and surge in import (December import jumped by 17%). All the past efforts are wasted. The traditional economic law still in play, it just overshadowed by current crisis. To stay competitive, a relative weak currency is needed. Otherwise, Wall Street might be the only industry left. With the current cheap shipping fair, it is again feasible to ship goods around the world. I still remember people talked about in sourcing and all the industry will come back to US because the dollar was cheap and oil was expensive. Nah, time has changed.
Focus on longer term, things alway go towards the mean. US cannot stay as the largest gold exporter for long.
IF they put more troops on the ground in YEMEN , then they can sneak over and get the Saud’s gold………………………..and extend and pretend a little longer…….
I assume they can use millitary the old way. They may be able to create a good image then.
I am still buying oil mutual fund every day.
I have been long since december 28th. Thinking of bailing now though as i dont see a driver for higher gold yet.
Only time I sell PM related asset is to buy energy shares.
Al,
I thought your ending comments yesterday on one of the show were (quote) “Great”…
Same for today’s 🙂 🙂 🙂
Birdman: much love. M-w-a-hhhhhhhhh 🙂
LPG