Gary is looking for a correction (downward) in gold later this year.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
NICE POST…bj……………………..
I loike the Mcalvany podcasts and David Mcalvany acts like a true gentleman. It’s a good show.
BJ,
That was a good post!
What most people ( including here ) don’t realized is what happened when Obama got new war powers with congress to address ISIS.
He signed an executive order dismantling the 2002 war on terror EO that W Bush put in place. We are no longer at war!!
What that does is, it cuts off spending for pet project like funding ISIS, sending troops to the Ukraine, and sending troops into Iraq and Syria. It also puts Israel in a bind for getting any help from us to topple Iran.
Obama has basically taken WW3 off the table!
Why would they want WW3 you might ask? The world is going back to asset based currencies and certain people in our government are fighting it tooth and nail. They know that the printing press will be cut off from them being able to use military force to control governments and corporations. Also, they know the truth will be exposed against them and starting a war would stop the truth from coming out.
HERE IS A LINK TO WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING.
http://www.pholosophyofmetrics.com
Enjoy
I hope you and BJ aren’t suggesting that Obama is any better than Bush. There is no evidence to support such a claim.
What part of Obama taking WW3 off the table do you Not get, Matthew?
Seriously, Chartster? What part of his continuation of Bush’s policies did you not get? Did he repeal the patriot act? No, he gave you the NDAA instead. Did he make good on any of his promises?
Do you believe that Obama’s puppet masters are different than Bush’s? (LOL)
If you aren’t equally horrified by this presidency, I’ve really overestimated you. Which appears to be the case.
Thinking lefties get it:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=noam+chomsky+obama+worse+than+bush
I’m not saying I like him, but he did just dismantle an impeding war that the Bush and Clinton regimes have started. It’s the only good thing I’ve seen the guy do. It’s also the most important thing he could have done.
It’s a start
Assuming it’s true, why would you give him the credit? Do you honestly believe that he would have a say in the matter? Do you think that Nixon was really behind the closing of the gold window?
Chartster, which war did Obama dismantle?
Matthew,
Hard to say who is pulling the strings, but he did do a good thing. It is a major blow to the cabal IMO.
BB,
The 2002 war on terror and took WW3 off the table.
I think Obama Bomb broke every election promis within a cpouple months…
Matthew TGM starting to look like a good setup!? I may buy some…
Bill, I bought more TGM when it retested the lows recently. For me, this play is well worth the risks and patience required. Potential upside is way more than ten-bagger.
Matthew, I feel US wants to seduce Russia to fight Russia not by itself. Russia is not falling for the tricks. Obama is more comfortable fighting financial war and cold war. Once was starts, it is hard to control. I don’t think WWIII is very close.
Seduce Russia to fight EU.
DNS error
Mcalvany always sound bj.
Further interview with David Macalvany on SGT
http://sgtreport.com/
Good thoughts guys. My projection is that commodities will bottom in the late spring/summer (May-June), and the stock market will start capitulating then but will top in the fall (Sept/Oct).
I feel that we will have melt up in all asset including stock and gold. Otherwise where does all these money go. Once the money is released, it will flow from one place to the other unless FED sucks it back, but with what, MBS and Treasury bond? I am sure the inflation is the only way to reduce debt burden, not default.
I agree Lawrence that there is gobs of liquidity in the marketplace, and very little of it was loaned out to businesses or individuals, and the money supply that was created is released into circulation, then inflation will start to rear its head. That should be positive for Gold, and possibly the markets (though a 6 year bull run is in need of deep correction this year, likely in the summer)
I also agree that we have had most of energy depleted for the move up in Gold and want to see 1245 taken out first.
Here are my upside resistance levels.
1) First level of resistance $1244.70 – besides the obvious 1228-1232 level we just had as support on the way down, will be the Feb 10th peak of $1244.70.
2) Second level of resistance is around $1259 – We had the Feb 5th trough at $1259 (and it also touched 1260.80 on an earlier trough that day and bounced from it). Then we had the $1260.10 level on Feb 3rd close. Then we also had the Jan 29th trough of 1258.10. When you look at 1259/1260.80/1260.10/1258.10 ~ $1259.
3) Third level of resistance $1272.85 We had the Feb 4th peak at $1271.90 and the the Feb 2nd peak of $1273.80. $1272.85 seems like a middle of the road target.
4) 4th and last target on the road to $1308 is the Jan 22nd close of $1302.10 – Honestly, if we get that close, the marketplace will try for the $1308 target. I just think it may hit $1302.10 and retreat on the first attempt.
On February 11, 2015 at 11:43 am,
Shad says:
If there is to be a correction down into the late spring/summer, there is the best I can make of it for correction support levels:
1) I am using 1180 because there are 2 important levels. A low on July 30th, 2010 of $1181.40, and a prior peak on Nov. 23rd, 2009 of $1176.70. I see that range of 1177-1181 as being a support zone and so 1180 is around number that some may use with stop loss positions.
2) I am using the 1137 most recent low and as the next level of support, and that will be an obvious level to everyone.
3) I’ve been using 1050 as a nice round number on the next step down, but probably should be more specific at $1044.70 from Oct 30th, 2009.
4) after just spending a few minutes to review things below that, I really don’t see support again until the Feb 20th, 2009 peak of $993.20.
Today was not the pop I was hoping for, and once again lacked any real conviction. It barely got above the first layer of support (1228-1232 zone, which was previously resistance on the way down) and then hovered back in that area and ended after-hours at 1227.90.
With it being a long weekend I just cashed out and made a nice profit on some small swing trades all week, but feel there just isn’t a real direction in gold and I don’t want to chance it over the long weekend, as it is a crapshoot and could go either direction on Tues.
Glad I pulled out on Friday, today sunk like a rock and is down to the 1206 level that Rick and Glen were discussing.
Gary
Your thoughts on OIL ?
David,
Same as it’s been for the last three weeks. Oil has formed an intermediate bottom and it’s now in a bear market rally that should still have 4-5 weeks before it tops.
At the moment, gold is above the 50 day sma (1229) and below the 55 day ema (1235). A close above both would be a good start.
Agreed Matthew. I’d like to start seeing some closes above moving averages and trend lines to buck the curve and show we have a little more room to grow on this upleg.
Well, we closed below both moving averages today at 1227.90, so that isn’t making me all warm and fuzzy about the conviction that we started a strong bounce. Gold has now taken so long to make a upward move, that it appears those calling for 1206 and sub 1200 gold could be correct. The last 3 times we’ve had $15-$30 moves lower, the rebounds have been too little, too late, and without much drive or momentum. When you see lower lows and lower highs, that is not a good trend.
My original thoughts in late January, when gold triple topped with a high of 1308, that there would be a brief downside correction for a week or so, and then we’d bounce back up to test 1308, and have a crack at 1323 and 1346.80.
From my perspective, this process has stretched out too long and the problem is that when gold fell to 1254 on the 29th that it didn’t get down into the 1250-1240 range. The following day it rallied much harder than expected into a dead cat bounce up to 1283, and then meandered around in the 1270s for much longer than expected. I was hoping we’d tag something like 1244 on Jan 30th and then turn up with some real momentum in early February. That isn’t was has happened, half of Feb is over now, and so my thesis was incorrect.
The support levels that we identified in place were all tested in the last week from last Fridays drop past 1240 down to the 1232 zone (which had a lot of congestion in the 1228-1234 range), and then eventually down to the 1218-1220 zone on Wed & Thur of this week.
Now, I gave Gold one last chance to rally from this lowest support zone target, when it held at the bottom of that range on Wednesday. I wanted to see gold bounce off 1218-1219 much stronger but instead it closed down to 1216 in afterhours trading, and then rebounded. On Thursday we had a whoope cushion bounce. Today (Friday) I thought we may be finally off to the races, when we opened higher up to 1233.20, but we went back into that first resistance zone (1228-1232 – which was previously support on the way down) and stayed in a lower-trending range all day.
I am starting to lean towards the Doc, Glen, Birdman, Rick camp that we are still going to head a little lower in gold next week. I cashed out my trading positions at a profit and actually had several good swing trades all week, but the patterns I was looking for in both Gold and GDXJ have broken down, and it is back to the drawing board on Tuesday to see where this things goes. Have a great weekend everyone!
Thank you for sharing Shad. Much appreciate it. I again agree. I’m on sidelines and will not buy miners until they correct. GDXJ only corrected 8.5% which is joke while gold dropped $100. I don’t like current setup and action. Either gold is right or miners are wrong. That’s a question now. I think miners are wrong and we’ll see shortly if that is the case.
I agree Stewie. I think it is very odd how the miners have been acting.
While the miners appear to have been showing strength in the face of much lower gold/silver price, I can’t help but feel like we are waiting for the other shoe to drop. I am concerned that either they may fall out of bed next week, or they will be indicating that the PMs should be going higher.
It remains to be seen which is the case, and if gold does rebound, then the miners should outperform based on their strength in the decline. However, if many are correct in their calls for lower gold, then I am concerned when sentiment turns in these miners that we may have a waterfall decline. I also notice when I look at a 6 month or 1 year pattern that many of the individual stocks that make up the ETFs could still drop lower. At this point there are a few counter-intuitive things happening at once, and I’m looking for a bit more information to see what kind of scenario is playing out. Best to you sir!
BALTIC DRY INDEX BREAKS NEW LEVELS………………NOW DOWN 540 POINTS………….PLEASE NOTE, that the Baltic dry index was on the way down well before the WEST COAST DOCK STRIKE, and well before the drop in OIL………….it will be very interesting to see what the BDI closes at for the end of the week. THE RIGGING BOYS are watching these numbers with a SHARP EYE and that is why they are searching the WORLD trying to start a MAJOR WORLD……………..BUT, it looks like RUSSIA and CHINA are not BITING !!!!!!
The BDI has never shown any historic predictive value for future economic activity.
THEN YOUR MIND MUST BE ON E.
GARY, YOU KNOW THAT THE BDI WOULD BE TRADING HIGHER if this economy was OKAY……………………..so don’t be STUPID !!!!!!!!!!!!!
ALSO, I WILL SAY……..if the WEST COAST DOCK STRIKE goes on for say another FEW WEEKS, which I doubt it, THEN that will start to effect the BDI more. SO RIGGIN BOYS………..now that you can’t pick on RUSSIA or CHINA, who’s on your MAJOR WAR HIT LIST NOW……………..could it now be SYRIA and IRAN ???
Go to KWN and read the latest article by Eric Von Greyers. He gaurantee’s that gold will break out and make new high’s in 2015!!! Plus, he outlines the problems of the world that he has so astutely observed that will make 2000 dollar gold a sure thing this year. If we don’t get the promised 2000 dollar gold in 2015 he promises to gaurantee, again, that we will have 2000 dollar gold in 2016. And, on and on. If you are a truth seeker, read KWN. Thats the place to get it.
This guy is a long term visionary. I don’t trust his short term prediction but long term is very good. For short term, I bet Martin Armstrong is better.
LONG TERM IS VERY GOOD…………………………………j….THE LONG………….
I think you mean Egon Von Greyerz
I use to worship KWN for quality of guests they have. Problem with KWN not guest is they are always pumping and never being negative on gold. This cost me plenty. When gold was getting hammered they would invite Andrew McGuire and laugh that central bankers expanded so much paper money and physical supply would win the day. Well. It’s 3 yrs later and they are still laughing while costing people that listen to their pumping plenty of money. IDIOTS !!!!!
The market has reached a new high as I had expected yesterday but barely above the prior high. I bought more Intel near the bottom by accidentally putting in a market order when it should have been at a lower price. XOP is strong again today with some nice gains for me.
Why succumb to this dangerous groupthink instead of simply consulting the historical record? If Fed rate hikes are bearish for gold as everyone assumes these days, then it must have been pounded in the last major rate-hike cycle. That happened between June 2004 and June 2006, a two-year span where the Fed more than quintupled its Federal Funds Rate from 1.00% to 5.25%. Did gold utterly collapse?
Not so you’d notice. Over the exact span of that last major Fed-rate-hike campaign, from FOMC day to FOMC day, gold blasted 49.5% higher! Its young secular bull actually accelerated dramatically while the Fed was aggressively raising rates. Since rising and higher rates make stocks and bonds look a lot less attractive and a lot more overpriced, alternative investments led by gold return to favor. Don’t forget that.
Adam Hamilton 321gold
great read……..suggest others read…………………………..j
oh, thanks for the post…………….
Good points Agatha posted from Adam Hamilton. At the beginning of a central bank raising rates, gold can many times go up in tandem because of the rotation out of different sectors, the confusion in the marketplace, and because the flames of inflation have been stoked. Once rates are raised dramatically then people tend to save in deposit products over gold, and the higher rates hurt hold. I read some articles from the Aden sisters and Peter Schiff about this in the past as well.
It is convention when taking material from an article that you use quotation marks, Agatha, so that readers will know it is another person who wrote the words you posted. Otherwise there is the appearance you are the one who is speaking. So attribution is important. Here is the link to the story you were mentioning.
Gary,
I believe you will be correct in your forecast of a $1275 cap in gold if it gets there.
That will give share owners a nice little $40-$50 dollar pop to unload trading positions and standby for further weakness to reload again for another short-term bounce opportunity.
It’s like taking candy from a baby.
Thanks for your daily inputs.
Yes Vortex. I think Gary’s probably correct, but my first target is 1244.70, then $1259, then 1272.85, then 1302.10, then 1308. If we got up to 1275-1280 that would be right after passing the 1272 zone, so it will be interesting to see what happens when gold approaches that range. Honestly, I haven’t been that impressed with the amount of time gold has taken to bottom and it threw off my projections.
It is starting to look like Gold may still be heading down to 1206 and below 1200 next week before we start the climb up, as many of the people on the site have forecast. Personally, I am in wait an see mode since we have a long holiday weekend and a lot can happen in that time-frame, before the markets open on Tuesday.
I’ve been thinking for a week now that gold will have a date with 1200 and may even spike quickly to 1180 but that would be quick spike. Why i think that don’t ask me. It’s my instinct based on price action.
Yes Stewie, based on the severity of the drops in Gold, and the lackluster bounces, I am starting to be swayed that 1200 and below is still a possibility in the near term. That is a hard pill for me to swallow, because I honestly thought we had some good momentum building in late January, and thought we’d just see a normal corrective move, and continue on. This correction has taken longer and been more severe than anticipated, and while I expect a real bounce sometime soon, it will just be a counter-trend move in the end chapter of the PM bear market. The final grind down will begin after that.
Stewie the setup is ripe now! Meaning they have both bulls and bears thinking lower. Take emotions out of the equation. Gold is about to surprise many.
Well we have now hit the 1206 level, so hats off to Rick & Glen for that target. Bird may be right that we’ll hit 1200 before this bounces.
Howdy Shad,
Yes it will be very interesting to see how gold reacts and if it has the staying power to surpass 1275 and achieve the 1300 level.
I’m just not feeling it, but who knows.
Either way, I’m not at all concerned. Long-term we will be winners and short-term I’m ecstatic that I have the opportunity to buy gold at these levels and lower.
Same applies to the mining shares as well. A drift back to the 1200 range just allows folks like you and I to reload the boat for the counter trend rally that will come as sure as night and day.
People are fretting over pennies up and down……..what a complete waste of ones limited time and resources.
take care
V
Vortex i agree. Gold will go down before it goes up. Miners are being drunk stupid now and they think they can outsmart gold. They will be punished soon enough. Gold is right IMO and miners are spitting in golds face. Like last 3 yrs have not tough them anything. They are pretty dumb imo at this moment. I hate them now, for now. lol
I was really anticipating a continued upleg into February that may have legs and a chance at the higher tartgets…… That is…..until last Friday when we just sailed right through 1257, 1250-1240 and got down to 1228 before snapping back to the 1230-1233 zone. That was more of a drop then most wanted to see.
If Gold had rallied out of that with some momentum we could have continued the impulse leg up to possibly take out 1347 and 1382. However, instead we dropped down to the last level of support I thought we could possibly hit and still have enough escape velocity to rebound up and keep the mini-bull from November going a few more weeks.
Well, Gold got stuck in the muck down near 1218-1220, and has not rallied strong at all. Now I am not even sure if it is going to take out the $1259 target on this bounce, but will be keeping an open mind, as things can come from out of nowhere to make these jumps happen.
Personally, I so have some long term core holdings, but usually discuss things on this blog relative to swing trades. As a result, I tend to fret a bit more over smaller gyrations that long term buy and hold investors. Typically I hold from 1 day to 2 weeks looking to capitalize on out-sized moves in a trend that is accelerating, or a pattern like a 5 wave or corrective A/B/C. I also use resistance and support levels to take a position that has a high correlation with being a turning point in the market for snap-back rallies and head-fake bull traps.
It is exhaustive though, and while this just closed a far more profitable week for me than if I had just bought and held, it takes a ton of time, information, and staring at screens. It does make you feel like life is flying by without you.
It has occurred to me a lot lately, to just sell everything into cash, holding for the bottom in commodities this late spring/summer, and then going all in on the quality companies that will absolutely survive and thrive long term. At that point I could just walk away and check on it in a year or so. (yeah right, who am I kidding?)
May you have a profitable week Vortex & Stewie.
Thanks Shad, all the best to you as well.
V
It has occurred to me a lot lately, to just sell everything into cash, holding for the bottom in commodities this late spring/summer, and then going all in on the quality companies that will absolutely survive and thrive long term. — Shad
———-
Lots of guys feel that way Shad and they pine for the good old days of buy and hold, locked in returns above 8% and worry-free sailing. You are not alone. But this is not our Grandfathers stock market anymore and there is no question that the winners are the ones who make a serious effort to stay on top of the changes that come hourly and daily. Maybe just do as some others do….bide your time and wait for those few trades each year that have a high degree of certainty of a pay off. Heck, there are good traders who do just that and I have known a few. They do nothing. Just sit and wait….sit and watch….and when they see a fat easy kill they take it. Those guys are the ultimate predatory traders and they tend to win because they treat the market like a Safari Hunt and don’t give two bits if it goes up or down.
Good thoughts Birdman. Yes, I agree the days of buy and hold for decades are not a relevant today, and trust me I spends hours every day putting in the time, and have had good results with an average of 20-30% returns (sometimes I have 100-300% gains, on a good stock pick, but I also have had losses in many commodities and energy stocks in the – 80-90% range, so it all washes out).
My thoughts were that I could have just thrown everything into the SPY the last few years and made about the same thing, with 0 thought or information needed. Obviously that is all about to change in the near future (summer-fall) is when I expect the big correction in the general markets. However, I was thinking about a Safari kill this summer when the whole commodity complex bottoms. Yes there would be some gyrations I’d miss until then, but it would free up all my time and then if I loaded up on the quality names & a few of the best ETFs in the space, then the ride up would be profitable, and likely last a few years.
The truth is that I really enjoy trading, and love the junior mining space, the Mid-Tier producers, PGMs, Base Metals, Oil, Uranium, some Solar, Potash & Fertilizer, and some of the new Green energy companies with unique utility services (like OESX or LIME) and some of the battery market in Lithium/hydrogen cells/or manufacturers. The markets are so squirrely that if you don’t keep a close eye on the company decisions, raising of funds, their balance sheet, listen to the quarterly conference calls, JV opportunities, drill results, land acquisition, and company mergers then you may miss the outsized moves to the upside or downside.
There is no simple way or silver bullet. Investing, especially with short-term horizones, takes a lot of work. I am happy to do it, but just want more time in life to enjoy the finer things. Mobile trading is helping people to check things on the go, but I really feel best at my home base of operations : – )
I want HUI at least at 170 before i even entertain to purchase miners.
I could see 181 as being a great entry point in HUI. I would expect that support to hold, and a potential reversal from there.
Thanks bro
Gold is still making lower highs …..wow…
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/213goldw.png
Exactly Stewie. I am glad to to see you caught that. We really need to get above 1350 to start taking gold seriously again and break the current declines. We are all waiting for signs of a breakout that finally ends the bear (myself included) but I still feel there is more declines ahead.
Good chart Stewie. You can see on there when the Nov turn started up and into January that it was bucking the trendlines and was notably up above the average. This is why I thought we had a chance to take out 1346.80 (1347) and 1382 (more import prior peak), if we could have just had a brief correction and continue on. Now, it would appear we are going to revert back down to that trend line (1180?).
I will be on sidelines until she bleeds bad enough that i know it’s bottom again.
That’s not now. That’s for sure. You might be right. We may even get marginal lower low at 1080ish? That would be soon if there is no rally, which i do not expect.
I must say gentleman gold is pretty sick.
In case anyone thinks s/he may be succumbing to group think, a quick visit to the GreaterFool will show the way to another cow trail. Just keep your head down and firmly planted in the butt ahead of you, and keep going. What can go wrong?
Many times I find myself in agreement with GreaterFool and his balanced portfolio approach, but to buy or even hold general market ETFs now? That takes guts.
Quoting:
“There’s always something to worry about in a world where nothing happens without a selfie. Just read the comments on this pathetic blog. We’re all experts. Know almost everything. And for the rest, there’s Google. Mostly it scares the poop out of people.
“Magnifying fear today are the merchants of it. Hedge fund managers and burned-out pundits like Marc Faber, Jim Rickards or Harry Dent never let up with predictions of a 50% market crash or 25 years of depression. Behind it usually lurks the ‘advice’ to buy into their funds, subscribe to their newsletters or join their bullion-licking club. So far they have an impressive track record. 100% wrong.
“Anyway, crap does happen. We saw a 55% stock plop in 2008-9, and a 20% market swoon in 2011 during the US debt ceiling crisis. There was the tech bubble which blew up the Nasdaq in 2000 and lately people with all their assets in Canada have taken a 20% hit. As you know, the same risk lurks for residential real estate. Meanwhile, savers have been punished with losses for the last six years as their deposits earned less than inflation.”
read more:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/02/13/the-motivator/
Burned-out pundits….ha ha ha …I got a good laugh from that! Thanks Irwin. Your friend has a sense of humour.
“Measure your success by what you have to sacrifice to achieve it”. – Dahlia Lama.
The hubris of western central banks is a pretext for disaster. Most western nations and their banks are bankrupt: the states spending like there is no tomorrow; the banks, holding shadow inventories and replacing generally accepted accounting principles with hot air—and of course, hubris. Now the vast majority of private citizens are watching their true net worth evaporate as central banks continue to inflate away their nation state’s debt at an accelerating rate.
The hubris of the Bush Dynasty resulted in our misadventures into Iraq—the consequences of which are the opposite of what was promised. Assuming the neocons didn’t hoodwink us into the Iraq War (a very generous supposition), the costs have and will continue to outweigh the benefits. In fact we have already overreached into the land of diminished returns. But that won’t stop Sen. Mad Dog McCain from beating his tom, tom. I just wish he wasn’t so public about it.
“Throughout history, the hubris of power resulted in geopolitical overreach, which ultimately leads to the economic collapse and the implosion of empires. All that can be debated is the rate of the decline/collapse.”
The theme this week is more eloquently spoken on this link: http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/