Rick Ackerman and Technicals
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I was wrong!
Although the Dow did close above 18K
I agree with Rick’s analysis on the oil sector. Good thoughts.
This is quite interesting too:
http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/podcasts/episodes/1-8-2015.html
I get the feeling gold does well on Fridays because traders are afraid of something geopolitical happening over the weekend.
I tend to agree Stephan, although I have notice for the last few years that Fridays are generally up days across many asset classes, for that feel good “ending the weak on a positive note”. There are a number of reports that hit on Fridays, sometimes option expirations, and yes many times news events that don’t care that it is Friday and will persist into the weekend.
In additions, many Mondays are red days but we won’t have a Monday here in US markets. Since the markets open on a Tuesday, that is too long of a period to figure out what may happen globally in the next few days, so I anticipate a selloff towards the end of the day as people square up for the long weekend.
Do you have another holiday?
Why don’t you have the holidays in the summer months instead of the winter?
Ah, it is Washington’s birthday.
It can’t be helped. These founding fathers were born in the Winter!
Also perhaps in America they don’t get those short, cold and dingy deadly dull days like we have in the UK at our high latitude (unless you’re in Alaska of course).
Also the Americans really get snow if they get it, not just a piddly dusting that turns into sludge in 24 hours so they can go sledging!
I used to live in northwestern Wyoming and we had plenty of snow. Sled heads from all over the country go there.
http://www.visitpinedale.org/cache/made/images/recreation/winter/snowmobiling/going-big_760_507_76auto.jpg
Funny Bob. I like and will take any holiday I can get. Most people in the US get about 7-10 days off a year (if they are lucky and aren’t afraid their job will be given to someone else when they actually take the time off). When we get winter vacations, many people just go to the parts of the country that are warmer.
Well, we closed below both moving averages today at 1227.90, so that isn’t making me all warm and fuzzy about the conviction that we started a strong bounce. Gold has now taken so long to make a upward move, that it appears those calling for 1206 and sub 1200 gold could be correct. The last 3 times we’ve had $15-$30 moves lower, the rebounds have been too little, too late, and without much drive or momentum. When you see lower lows and lower highs, that is not a good trend.
My original thoughts in late January, when gold triple topped with a high of 1308, that there would be a brief downside correction for a week or so, and then we’d bounce back up to test 1308, and have a crack at 1323 and 1346.80.
From my perspective, this process has stretched out too long and the problem is that when gold fell to 1254 on the 29th that it didn’t get down into the 1250-1240 range. The following day it rallied much harder than expected into a dead cat bounce up to 1283, and then meandered around in the 1270s for much longer than expected. I was hoping we’d tag something like 1244 on Jan 30th and then turn up with some real momentum in early February. That isn’t was has happened, half of Feb is over now, and so my thesis was incorrect.
The support levels that we identified in place were all tested in the last week from last Fridays drop past 1240 down to the 1232 zone (which had a lot of congestion in the 1228-1234 range), and then eventually down to the 1218-1220 zone on Wed & Thur of this week. I really didn’t want to see 1239-1240 broken and hoped we turn and run higher in the mid 1240s. The targets for 1323, 1347, and 1382 are unlikely now, and this means he gold bear market is still in place and we head down into our major bottom in Spring/Summer.
Now, I even gave Gold one last chance to rally from this lowest support zone (1220-1218) target, when it held at the bottom of that range on Wednesday. I wanted to see gold bounce off 1218-1219 much stronger but instead it closed down to 1216 in afterhours trading, and then rebounded. On Thursday we had a whoope cushion bounce. Today (Friday) I thought we may be finally off to the races, when we opened higher up to 1233.20, but we went back into that first resistance zone (1228-1232 – which was previously support on the way down) and stayed in a lower-trending range all day.
I am willing to admit when a trend moves against me, and I am now leaning towards the Doc, Glen, Birdman, Rick camp that we are still going to head a little lower in gold next week. I cashed out my trading positions at a nice profit and actually had several good swing trades all week, but the patterns I was looking for in both Gold and GDXJ have broken down. It is back to the drawing board on Tuesday to see where this things go from here. Have a great weekend everyone!
Excellent comments and analysis, i agree 100%. I’m now short Gold via futures at 1232 and also short AUY via puts at 4.12. I’m looking for a Spring / Summer low in Gold, corresponding to a top in equities (whenever that is).
Anyone that was thinking of selling missed a lot of the move. I will continue to hold my short positions.
I would have to agree with you on this one,,,,,,,,Friday and a long week end….might have the shorts thinking of staying put……………..
we sure as H arent gonna get the truth fro Kitco & other sites..
Perhaps this diplomatic wording is acceptable:
A Kitco representative implied that 25% of people that purchase gold (in small quantities) may have mental heath issues.
Personally, I did not find the quote the least bit offensive; there is some truthiness.
DITTO on the mental health issue for peter huggy poo……..
I think Kitco is a good resource for ideas, and they do a number of different interviews with top people in the mining, resource, financial, and political arena, and have a number of daily editorials that are worth following. Daniela & Alex do a good job on their daily interviews. I also like all the charts available at one glance on one webpage.
As for Peter, I take what he says with a grain of salt, I listen to his perspectives on the macro picture, but feel he trades much more in line with the mainstream media talking heads. He is no dummy though, and is typically gruff in his comments, so at least he says what is on his mind.
25% of gold bugs are a little crazy & conspiratorial, but so is 25% of my mind, so I enjoy the doom & gloomers as a contrast to the mainstream media talking heads that assure us that “everything is going great in the US & World economy and the job market is back on track.” Sometimes crazy is also, contrarian, and sometimes “crazy people” get mega-rich thinking and moving against the grain.
On their shows I think Jim Wyckoff is the best technical analyst, and is very grounded, with minimal fluff or hype. I also get a real kick out of the weekly interviews with Frank Holmes, mostly because of his mega-positive enthusiasm.
Maybe true 25% has mental problem but still better than general public, 99% there are brain washed and stupid.
A valid point Lawrence!!
UYM etf for materials has reached 54. Was around 46 to 47 a few weeks ago when I was thinking of getting back into it having sold over 50 but got heavy into energy and wanted to hold cash.
GOOD GOLD CLOSED UP……….
ANYBODY……..heard anymore on ICE……………thanks j……….
That gray cloud over Europe is not one of 50 shades; rather it is a lamentation of black swans on the horizon:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11407256/Germany-faces-impossible-choice-as-Greek-austerity-revolt-spreads.html
gold & rising rates… excellent peice
Feb 13 Gold and Fed Rate Hikes Adam Hamilton 321gold
ditto
I like articles by Adam Hamilton. However, you have to consider the explosion of inflation in the 1970s as a major factor in the interest rate rises then. So the real ex-inflation interest rate is something that needs to be considered.
Although if gold has zero interest rate on it for most investors, I think you can also compare it to the low nominal interest rates we have now, as Hamilton is doing in his article.
THERALASE share owners should take notice of this Houston research:
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23219875
and other references in that paper.
Gold price action since November 2014, rally then correction:
In US dollars it is a 51% retracement of the rally, 1130.40 to 1307.80 and back to 1216.50.
In British pounds it has retraced 50% of the rally
almost exactly 712 to 872 then back to 792.
In Euros, this gold correction has retraced 36.5%
of the rally, 907.40 to 1160.50 then back to 1068.10,
almost a 38.2% Fibonacci ratio.
These are good levels for a chance of a bounce.
If it moves lower, perhaps it might get away with doing a 61.8% correction in USD and GBP and a 50% one in Euros but that’s about the limit, surely. Those targets would be $1198, 1034 Euros and 773 GBP.
It should stop there, otherwise it is a bear market.
You can expect a typical Friday afternoon knockdown in gold and bump-up in the Dow.