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Tuesday and The Doctor Is In

Big Al
February 17, 2015

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138 Comments
    Feb 17, 2015 17:49 AM

    European immigration misery and slavery ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrlyoDk44ss

      Feb 17, 2015 17:33 PM

      Great interview guys. I think now is the time to be patient, as I think we’ll start having a whipsaw that channels down into a large bottom this spring/summer major bottom. There will be some nice counter-trend moves up that are small swing trade opportunities over two-three week intervals, but the bottoming process will take 3-4 more months likely. Until we see 1347 and 1382 get taken out, then we can’t even say Gold is back into the larger bull market trend……and I think that it may take until July/August to get back to those levels.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:40 PM

        If Gold would have just had a small 1 week minor correction after the 1308 high and close on the 22nd of 1302, then there was a good chance gold could have kept climing. However, now it lost $100 in less than a month, and is in a much bigger hole to dig out of. Gold had really popped up above the trend line, but now is reverting back down to it, where it will bounce again, but likely not even as high as January, and then it will likely fall further on the next correction down to test 1180 and 1137. If those levels fail then $1044.70 as next major support, and then $993.20 as a worst case scenario. For the short term, we should bottom this week and then have a little upleg when this selling gets exhausted.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:54 AM
    CFS
    Feb 17, 2015 17:55 AM

    Well, I bought some Alexandria today.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:09 AM

    A parabolic move in low volatility assets is probably a contradiction in terms.

    http://scharts.co/1Foqq4G

      Feb 17, 2015 17:36 AM

      Very interesting. Thanks.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:20 AM

    Doc
    Are we going to see a bounce in Gold soon? It seems like it is over sold.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:44 AM

      Al did you and cory buy first class on the train? lol..Im just having some fun. I agree with Doc this is going to take time.

      What I really would like doc to answer is if he believes we are heading to lower lows in gold? That is what I and many others want to know.

      Doc keep your great post coming.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:56 AM

      Yes, most likely the end of the week. We’re close—-I would expect that we then also see somewhat of a sell off in the conventional market. I’ll be going long volatility the end of the week.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:20 PM

        Doc let me rephrase i meant lower then 1130?

        Like this summer? or are you saying this week? Im confused.

          Feb 17, 2015 17:27 PM

          We shouldn’t see 1130 on this move down. We should get a bump up before that. Then I’ll be able to tell you what I believe will happen after the “bump” up which will have the potential of moving to 1255.

            Feb 17, 2015 17:31 PM

            Doc thank you. That is why i was asking for the setup for the bounce. Im expecting the bounce before going lower if that is the case to be played out. Your highest target would be 1255 off this bounce? If so that is not a big bounce.

            Feb 17, 2015 17:50 PM

            That is the neighborhood I am looking for as well. First resistance is that wacky 1228-1232 zone (that was recently support, and then switched to resistance and held in both directions.) Then the Feb 10th peak of $1244.70, then $1259, then $1272.85.

            I think your 1255 target is reasonable. I am using $1259 because it is a high congestion zone with many peaks and troughs. We had the recent Feb 5th trough at $1259 (and it also touched $1260.80 on a early spike down earlier that day an bounced). Then we had the $1260.10 level on Feb 3rd close. Then we also had the Jan 29th trough of $1258.10. When you look at 1259/1260.80/1260.10/1258.10, then it averages out to the $1259 zone. Just a thought.

            Feb 17, 2015 17:53 PM

            I could also see Gold approach the $1272.85 level and then correct back down. We had the Feb 4th peak at $1271.90 and the Feb 2nd peak of $1273.80….so $1272-1273 would be the next resistance level after $1259. It is unlikely to get above that level, but the next stop would be $1302.10 the Jan 22nd close.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:32 AM

    The Japanese bond markets are going nuts….the 10 yr has moved almost 10% today with big moves over the last few weeks.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GJGB10:IND

    I wonder if this may be the elephant in the room. Among many others, of course :). Any comments?

      Feb 17, 2015 17:20 PM

      If any bond market should see higher rates, it would have to be JGBs!

    LPG
    Feb 17, 2015 17:36 AM

    Richard is absolutely right on the money with his comments.

    Buying quality asset companies on pullbacks will likely generate nice returns over the next few quarters and years. Key is: 1) selectivity of quality assets, 2) buying on PULLBACKS, not when stocks go up up up up up, 3) allow time for the investment thesis to play out on every name. All of this must be within the frame of a plan, and a plan after the plan.

    For anyone who wants a quick double, there’s roulette in any casino: put your money on black/red, odds/even and you’ve got almost 50% chance to double your money – and you’ve got your answer within… say… 30sec 🙂

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      LPG
      Feb 17, 2015 17:37 AM

      I meant to write “within the FRAMEWORD”, not “within the frame”.
      Apologies for the typo.
      LPG

    bb
    Feb 17, 2015 17:42 AM

    I got the newsletter thx Cory, and everyone actually.
    Excellent discussion on the previous thread, got a laugh or two as well.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:21 PM

    Looking for Hui 180-181 at the close.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:32 AM

      As I’ve been saying for 3 weeks, I think the HUI has a date with 180-181, because we had so many prior turns with peaks/troughs right at that level. It should be a good support zone and bounce from there when Gold bottoms.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:33 AM

        That is this short term bottom in Gold. HUI could fall a little further in the spring/summer, but it is due for a brief pop as well and will time it with the coming gold pop at the end of this week.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:24 PM

    Doc
    Do you buy TVIX for volatility?

      Feb 17, 2015 17:29 PM

      David, I buy the VIXY.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:02 PM

    Hi Doc,
    I am wondering how bad it is for a stock (Kinross TSX K) when it falls outside the lower part of its Bollinger band? Its RSI is near %30 too? I assume there will be another little down-leg for this stock this week before it turns up next week? The chart looks weak to my technically newbie eyes. Conversely the chart for Kirkland Lake KGI on the TSX looks pretty strong to me.
    I am looking at Kinross, symbol K on the TSX.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:51 PM

      Confused; I wouldn’t touch K here since it would be like catching a falling knife. The odds are you’ll see a double bottom for it over the next few weeks and that would be at 2.50-3.00. You’re correct about KGI; the technicals are much more favorable. As I mentioned though in the commentary, KGI looks like a lot of other stocks in that it’ll be stuck in a range for awhile. What I’ve been doing is only buying when the stocks hit the lower bollinger band on the monthly especially when the bollinger bands are trading sideways with their 20 month MA especially if the momentum indicators are trending higher. I hope this helps. It’ll save folks a lot of grief if they don’t purchase in the middle or upper aspects of the trading ranges. As mentioned, we’re entering a weak season for gold and I wouldn’t be aggressive purchasing the stocks except for the above mentioned .

    Feb 17, 2015 17:27 PM

    Doc, last week you were saying all the time, that gold will bottom this week.

    Now you say, it will take some time.

    In fact, you no NO ONE knows what’s going to happen in the future.

    So why play the game as if you do?

    Al, this is what I was saying to you months ago.

    It’s OK to follow a trend (I do it myself), but people should get off their high horses and stop PRETENDING that they can predict the future.

    NO ONE can.

    Anyone who thinks they can is either insane or a liar.

    I think Doc is a nice guy. So why are you trying to predict something that can not be predicted?

      Feb 17, 2015 17:38 PM

      Bill; when I say it will in all probability bottom this week it’s a short term bottom that will then see a bounce—-after that, it’s anyone’s guess whether it then takes off or has further downside. That I’ll not predict although the seasonal factors for gold say we’ll not see a massive move higher. In fact, I deal with probabilities and the odds are good that we’ll see a lower low in April if we get a bounce here. Let’s see what happens.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:40 PM

        When I say a lower low, I’m talking about a low lower then the bottom we should see end of the week or soon thereof.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:42 AM

        Good response Doc. Nobody can predict the long term picture, but they can look at the weekly, and in particular monthly charts and still see the general pattern setting up. However, on a short term basis there are many technicians that use a variety of analysis tools (ie… 50 day moving average, 200 day MA, 400 day MA, trend lines, chart patterns like “head and shoulders” “cup and handle” “pennant flag” , double and triple bottoms, prior support and resistance levels, bollinger bands, MACD, japanese candlestick patterns, slow/fast stochastic levels, timing cycles, hidden pivot points,…..etc.). Some tools anticipate turns, or pressure building for a breakout, or over-bought/over-sold conditions, or divergences, or the timing band when something should happen.

        These tools are not crystal balls, but they’ve been developed over periods of time much longer than any of us have been alive and over the last 50-100 years have been fine-tuned. Now in the modern age of everyone having access to their private trading accounts, those tools come standard and there are more people using them, and thus they become self-fulfilling forecasts.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:01 PM

      Also, Bill, I stick with gold bottoming this week. I’m talking about some time for most of the PM stocks to make a significant move higher. That also goes for gold. That doesn’t mean the ultimate bottom for gold but just this cycle. I hope that clears up what I’ve been saying.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:26 PM

        Man Doc, I’m not that smart (IQ just 165), but after listening to what you said and what you wrote, I still don’t know what’ you’re thinking when sitting alone on the can.

        My only point is that, no one knows the future.

        So why pretend to?

        Sure I can look at a 1 hr GLD or GDX chart and see that RSI is oversold, and that like in times past, that GLD might bounce. But RSI was oversold last week as well, and this week we have it again w/out divergence (except in the MACD, a bit). But if manipulation exists and if this (or similar) is the reason for the recent sell off, all these charts mean NOTHING w/regards to predicting the future. It will continue to go down until the seller(s) are done. And unless you know what they’re thinking when they’re sitting on the can, it’s impossible to predict.

        Hence I just try to follow the trend.

          Feb 17, 2015 17:37 PM

          … anyways, I see you.

          My reql q for you is, if you’re a medical MD, why not do that instead of trading? No need to answer ’cause it’s personal and none of my business, but I have a tremendous amount of respect for healthcare professionals, and police and firemen/people and such. With life so short, and w/so much pain on our streets and in the world, folks who help others in need I hold in the highest esteem.

            Feb 17, 2015 17:36 PM

            I still practice VERY part time. I also am on a board of a company I helped to start about 10 years ago. I’ve been following the markets since I was a youngster and love the charting and the challenge of calling bottoms and tops and purchasing stocks with good technicals and possibilities. Maybe it’s the gambler in me. After looking at “millions” of charts over the years, it’s a challenge to beat the markets—the odds are better then sitting in a casino and throwing your money away to the house. Also, if I can help one investor it’s worth it. Take fore instance RIC and CRJ, 2 stocks that I alerted investors to before their big moves. The technicals were screaming a purchase. Now the stocks are coming back correctively and it may give investors a chance (do your due diligence) to consider purchasing them. I sold most of my position with RIC at the top since the technicals were signaling a topping pattern but will in all probability purchase again on a low in March-April. Also, I’ll be purchasing more CRJ when I feel it’s bottomed. Having said that, the markets and charting are just a fun thing for me to do. This is not investment advice.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:27 AM

          The sun will rise tomorrow.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:29 PM

    And the corollary to answering the question of “where do you think the markets are going?”, is to NOT ASK THE QUESTION IN THE 1ST PLACE.

    Al, Cory, this is a comment for you guys.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:29 PM

    We gotta get smarter than this guys.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:31 PM

    Make it real, or shut down, me thinks. Babble goes nowhere, and worse, confuses people who think this is real.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:33 PM
      Feb 17, 2015 17:10 PM

      GATA And Martin Armstrong Have Gone At It For Nearly 17 Years!

      A couple of days ago a Café member sent me some of the latest commentary by Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics, formally of Princeton Economics International. As you will read, he continues his rant against “the gold promoters,” a rant that seemed more than vaguely familiar.

      What an understatement!

      The Café opened on September 3, 1998 with the price of gold at $285 and the price of silver at $4.93. The internet as a form of communication was just coming into its own back then and many of the commentators you read about today were nowhere to be found in those days. Martin Armstrong was an exception.

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-15/gata-and-martin-armstrong-have-gone-it-nearly-17-years

        Feb 17, 2015 17:39 PM

        The comment under the ZH article by “cyclist” pretty much nails it in my opinion:

        “Martin Armstrong – I’ve communicated with him beginning many years ago when he was still incarcerated …..Brilliant? Talented? Yes, I think so. He is a marvellous historian and great memory of historical data. He is a shrewd businessman and entrepenuer. His cycle theory is sound in foundation, as all things move in cycles. That is quite evident to most people. However, it doesn’t mean he is correct most of the time, as that would be innacurrate. Many great qualities to be admired to be sure. However all those things said, it doesn’t put me in the pro Marty Armstrong camp.

        This economic guru has been and is wrong on as many things as he is correct. Marty is not short of predictions and statements about anything that might attract attention and pave the way to either more followers, seminars, books or slots into his magical computer which “has all the facts in the world, without the bullshit.” And for only a few million dollars per year investment advisory fee. In addition to financial reports, Armstrong is pleased to sell you a book on the secrets of the Mayan Civilization, or one of his finely hand made exclusive silver medallian chains made by European Artisans. Depends on what your buying, but be sure he can be selling if demand or interest is high enough. His narrative is anti – gold because it suits his purposes and his target market, which is the rich and large Wall Street banks, hedge funds and financial businesses. They would not give him those hefty fees for seminars if he were pro gold. He isn’t a dummy by any means. This is a rich target market.

        Some folks, need to re-examine their heads, as this was a man who spend 10 years in jail. If he was behind the curtain or an invitee to “The Club” he wouldn’t have sat in jail for all those years. Unless of course he did some bad things and pissed off the Club Members. And what are those things? Marty has a meglomaniacal side in which he compares himself to Ghandi. All the stuff about being persecuted and jailed without legitimacy is bullshit. It is strange and uncommon yes, but nonetheless lawful and was fact. His ranting about conspiracy theories is just that. Why is all manipulation obvious and applicable to him, but is not the case elsewhere? It takes alot of talent to be a master BS artist and the allure of MA is much of his story telling is sprinkled with some truth and fact, which makes it all the more compelling. Not however, accurate or true entirely. I often wonder, whether it is from an overzealous investment promoter or economic cycle wiz, why if so infallible and accurate , do they not just borrow a million dollars and invest it according to their predictions? Armstrong ran a hedge fun many years ago, so it wouldn’t be a stretch and would not involve half the work he does now trying to promote his services. It would be simple and easy…road to riches. No hassle, no complaints, no nasty emails.

        It is a tangled web we weave…..”

          Feb 17, 2015 17:40 PM

          Matt,

          Thanks for the read! This brings to light the truth of the matter and the only fact of investing in life. One must only trust himself and his own trade! Everything else is noise,information,wisdom,shear stupidity,knowledge, history,blah blah blah and some more blah blah blah, cyles, technical analysis/indicators, and much more. Take what we have and apply what one wants and feels comfortable with.

          There is not one human trader/investor that is 100% perfect in his calls. If there was such then let me see him.

          glen

            Feb 18, 2015 18:59 AM

            That comment was classic. MA does talk his own book with plenty of trinkets to sell.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:12 AM

          A Question About Gold — by Martin Armstrong

          “Yes I own gold myself. Gold is like fire insurance. It is the HEDGE against government – not inflation. If you have bought gold expecting to make money short-term, then you have wasted a lot of time. Trade the trend. What is wrong with selling gold at the high and buying at the low? I just do not get that. As an insurance, yes I only buy common date US $20s. No bullion in bars etc. That is the “just in case” hedge. It is NOT an “investment” It is plan B. Trading gold back and forth I prefer the “paper” gold thank you. Liquidity is king. These are entirely different things. What I object to is feeding people nonsense who then put everything they own into gold and then lose the farm. That is totally bad advice and uncalled for. I do not care what the investment is. You NEVER advise people to buy anything and don’t worry just hold forever no matter what. That is bad advice for stocks, bonds, or gold.

          Emerging markets saw central banks buying gold because they had none. Does that reflect anything? No not really. We saw Britain sell in 1999 at the lows. The danger we face is we may see Western central banks sell gold as the economy turns down hard and they need cash to meet EU austerity. Central banks have bought the highs and sold the lows many times. So that is not an indicator that implies anything. The numbers are the numbers. The market is never wrong, only the fundamentalists who try to rationalize the far too often irrational. Why? Because markets move NOT on facts, but on anticipation. The old trader maxim, – BUY THE RUMOR SELL THE NEWS and that applies to any market.

          Cash will be king. Buying dips in equity is the best play for now. As I showed the Energy Models do not warn of a major peak as of yet, So we should continue to churn back and forth.

          The metals will bottom on the Bechmark targets. Today, gold has collapsed again back down to the 1208 level. All the screaming, hollering, kicking, biting, and name-calling will not prevent gold from meeting its fate. You have to realize there should be a retest of the 1980 high just under the $1,000 mark. There is a risk of testing the Yearly Bearish Reversal at $680. That would probably finish-off the gold promoters for quite a while. I think even a break of $1,000 will make them look rather stupid. But that is what you need at the final low. You have to have the 99% throw in the towel”.
          ————————————-

          That was a good article he left. I really appreciate his sensible approach. Matthew does not like him because he is a realist where metals are concerned and sometimes he criticizes the gold bugs. Fact is he has been right too many times. The bugs need to do a little self analysis and stop marrying their trades!
          ——————————————-
          http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/02/17/a-question-about-gold/

            Feb 18, 2015 18:41 AM

            He sure says some ridiculous things for a “realist.” Birdman didn’t even know who Armstrong was when he first started coming to this site less than two years ago and actually believed that Marty was stealing his material! LOL

            What I’ve noticed about his strongest supporters is that they don’t seem to know much and probably feel they have found their investment savior. They should be careful.

            Nevertheless, I am interested in what MA has to say.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:45 AM

            Wow…you made yourself so small with that comment. I can hardly see you anymore.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:51 AM

            Ohhh…I get it now. I just checked gold. Wheee! It did indeed fall to within 2.00 dollars of my target when it hit 1202.00 this morning. And Matthew cannot contain his anger!

            He still thinks I am a stuffed turkey.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:54 AM

            Anger? lol

            Get help NPD-boy.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:59 AM

            Gobble Gobble Gobble.

            bb
            Feb 18, 2015 18:17 PM

            I thought I read you say goldbugs liked M Armstrong Mathew?

            Feb 18, 2015 18:34 PM

            Careful bb, you are going to push his “inconsistency” button. He might blow an artery or something.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:00 PM

            LIKED, as in, used to.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:01 PM

            We can see how easily language gets weaponized. 😉

    Feb 17, 2015 17:41 PM

    Bill – this is commentary and one’s man’s opinion -that’s it…it has NOTHING to do with somebody coming on this program and stating this stuff is FACT….if you cant figure that out then maybe you need to step back; take a deep breath and realize this is simply commentary for you to ponder and chew on….that’s it!! End of story…:)
    All the best,
    Marc

      Feb 17, 2015 17:47 PM

      +1

        Feb 17, 2015 17:09 PM

        Yea I agree, +1.

        I guess I come here looking for insight as to what’s going on. To make me a better trader. More than just an opinion. More like insight. Someone who sees something that I don’t.

        Am I so different? Or do you just want an opinion? I don’t. So I was expecting more. So if that’s the difference of perspective, me and you, then that’s fine.

        You know, Al always says to listen to as many opinions as possible. But to that I disagree – I think that fewer, higher quality insights is much better than a volume of opinions. And in the end, most folks are wrong.

        When I was a beginner trader, I really thought that folks like this were experts, and subconsciously I included their thoughts to formulate my overall opinion.

        Now as an advanced beginner trader, I see that almost no one knows anything. Very very few have 1st hand information. And no one knows the future, unless one is big enough to create the future. So while entertaining, these opinions have nothing to do with real trading, in real time. At least not for me.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:07 AM

          We are all looking for answers, Bill. Like you I also come to this site to listen in and then read about what others are saying and doing and in general that has been rewarding for me because this site represents a kind of community brain.

          I often say that the market is like a Rubics Cube of possibilities and variations. It is a puzzle that most here work at trying to understand. I won’t agree with you that nobody knows where markets are headed though or that the future is always a great unknown.

          From personal experience I can say that I have often been able to accurately make predictions despite being almost alone in my thinking. It is more than just good luck. Luck amounts to 50/50 odds but I beat those odds regularly and that tells me that using a method and being disciplined have validity.

          I also lean on the insights of others to get an idea of the collective thought.

          Over the years I have come across a number of people who are incredibly gifted in assessing the markets. People far more skilled than me. And I really appreciate those few who manage to turn out good results year after year and that take an approach that is systematic yet mixed with good intuition.

          What I have come to notice though is that there are just a handful of leaders and what they say and write seems to set the tone for the entire market. It is amazing to me that those creative minds are so rare and still so influential.

          I guess I will say this…whenever I come across someone who beats the odds on a fairly consistent basis then I know we are not dealing with Roulette style analysis and simple averages. There are some incredibly talented people out there and some of them are guests on this site.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:06 PM

    IT’S JUST PURE IN YOUR FACE MANIPULATION that is taking place here in GOLD, when GOLD rose to $1308 on the SWISS BANK RESET which was REAL SOLID NEWS, it only took the RIGGING BOYS less than four weeks later to get the price DOWN ONE HUNDRED DOLLARS back to $1208 on almost NO REAL SOLID NEWS………and yet the STOCK MARKET BREAKS NEW HIGHS on very BAD ECONOMIC DATA and FANTASTIC RIGGING of the JOBS NUMBERS as well as another BIG LIE out of CREECE this morning…………well the BALTIC DRY INDEX dose not LIE, and it is BREAKING ALL TIME RECORD LOWS as I speak……and ANYONE WHO SAYS that it dose not MATTER is a DAMN FOOL !!!!!!!!!!!!!

      Feb 17, 2015 17:11 PM

      Yup, probably and unfortunately so.

    Since it is PURE MANIPULATION…….all charts and TA…is BS………..SO, we have.
    PM-C-TA=BS…………..OR PMCTABS………P McTabs…..or PULL MY MCTABS, AND HAVE A BEER……………………..

      Feb 17, 2015 17:21 PM

      Yea I’m starting to think that it’s just best to buy physical gold right here and now, and hold it, and forget about trading the PM sector. Just trade the S&P and Energy sectors. But for gold, just treat it like insurance, and buy some and forget about it.

      And if/when the dollar starts to tip over on the monthly chart, buy some more.

        Buying, here, is not that bad, if you do not have enough physical, these prices are 2008 prices………so, I just do not see that much down side risk…, If, you have a long time horizon 3 plus years……I think it is money in the bank, no, it is better than money in the bank, especially if we have BAIL INS.,, and as Jim Willie is indicating today…….THE SWISS banks are not allowing any big deposits to be withdrawn form the banks…..

      Feb 17, 2015 17:04 PM

      Jerry – hs!!

    Feb 17, 2015 17:23 PM

    $U.S. dollar gold price below the 13-week EMA. The moving average crossover was averted for now, but I believe policy rate actions, such as lower rates in treasury bills will set things off.

    http://scharts.co/1vwVyGL

      Feb 17, 2015 17:34 PM

      Thanks for putting together this chart. I actually spent some time looking at the details and it fits my “feelings” as to what has transpired and why 1130 felt like the ned of the downward trend. By the way, extra points for the use of “denouement” on a stock chart ! ! !

      The EMA(89) line acting as local resistance is interesting …

    DID ANYONE HEAR ………..JIM WILLIE SAY……….SWISS BANKS ARE NOT ALLOWING LARGE DEPOSITORS TO WITHDRAW THEIR MONEY ON DEPOSIT………., I think A, the Rev. posted it earlier…………..j………

      sorry for all the CAPS………I forgot it gets some people excited………lol

      CFS
      Feb 17, 2015 17:48 PM

      J…..the Long,
      Yes.

      In US and UK you get 5th degree interrogation, why do you want it in cash? What are you using it for?
      Under 2K pounds or dollars seems about the easy limit.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:07 PM

      Yes, Jerry, the latest interview with Paul Sandhu

    Feb 17, 2015 17:42 PM

    Doc, it is time to come clean re the charting… you do change yr mind to suit the weather.Within brief time spans.
    Thanks

      bb
      Feb 17, 2015 17:57 PM

      Probobly because events change every day I would imagine, might be best to consider the trends, some times Doc could be talking about possible bounces as opposed to a trend change.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:05 PM

        Absolutely correct—-maybe I’ve got to be more specific—thanks. We’re not going anywhere fast in the PM sector and the stocks in the near future. That I’ve been saying for months. This will be a work in progress over weeks/months. If you set yourself up at the right price points with selective stocks, you’ll be rewarded but it will NOT be in the immediate future.

    KERR MINES, INC…………DOWN 18%………..a lot of RED on the miners……

    bb
    Feb 17, 2015 17:55 PM

    Guess it was just a spike J, the management was right I guess when they said they saw no reason for such increases in the share price.

      IT was most likely, because I POSTED a couple of times the name on this site……lol

        bb
        Feb 17, 2015 17:03 PM

        That had to be it J, my thoughts exactly.

          bb
          Feb 17, 2015 17:05 PM

          At one time, if you bought a penny stock when Bob mentioned it on 321 you were pretty much guaranteed a double if you bought quick enough.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:55 PM

    Short term traders must always change their mind because the trading situation changes all the time and it changes quickly. They are only playing the odds….if they are right more than 50% of the time, they will make money.

    If you don’t like it, then become a long term investor. That is what I do. Try to listen to the short traders, be patient, appreciate what they say, and try to time your buy. If you are lucky you get in at a good price with their help but if you are wrong and it goes down it shouldn’t bother you since you are holding for the long term.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:05 PM

      Yup, my favorite chart is still the MONTHLY $GOLD chart. It’s still on a sell signal, but it correctly showed the trend from the bottom in 1999-2001.

      FYI while these stats are somewhat dated, my memory tells me that 95% of all traders fail (up from 85% a few yrs ago), and that HFT (high freq trading) computers do north of 80% of all trading, and that the avg time that a computer holds a stock is 7 seconds.

      But I still see trends on daily charts, and of course weekly and monthly. But for me intraday charts are now out. Gotta play the hand delt.

    bb
    Feb 17, 2015 17:02 PM

    I don’t know if anyone appreciates him but Harry Dent has started to consider some very low prices for gold.
    If a person agreed with him there could be some nice change in shorting.

      Jim willie or Kirby said ……DENT IS A DUNCE………………lol……….

        bb
        Feb 17, 2015 17:22 PM

        Didn’t we just get somebody calling Richards a “crackhead”? lol
        These guys don’t all agree with each other, goldbugs never appreciated Armstong Norcini or Nadler either, and those are the ones that just frequently published.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:07 PM

      I like Harry Dent. I don’t know if he’s right, but he has convinced me. Makes me think that despite all the money printing ($10T total?), that the debt is much, much bigger (> $1000T? maybe $2000T?)

        Feb 17, 2015 17:08 PM

        … most of it being derivatives.

        Odd that despite low oil prices, and all the talk about the derivatives falling apart, that so far my peon eyes haven’t seen this fallout yet … am swill watching for it though.

        bb
        Feb 17, 2015 17:26 PM

        If we are experiencing a deflation it makes sense that everything drops.

        Personally, I havnt changed my guess, that being the Chinese will increase buying should gold get to about $1000, Im not saying it will get there, just if it does they increase buying.
        If it “tanks” big time from there, Hudas is right, the americans do have 170ktons and they intend to take gold to a meaningless barbaric relic.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:03 PM

    My purchases of Altius Minerals, Asanko Gold and Pilot gold from Sprott really proves a point Doc has been making…..these purchases have been over a period of several months – they are holding their own….pilot gold is up nicely…u purchased these great companies even several months ago…u would have been hammered..I DO NOT think there are too many sellers left in this market…I wish I would have started buying like this NOW…oh well!!

      Feb 17, 2015 17:22 PM

      Same Good stocks dear SD Marc ! Cool Buyers Cool is the way BUY !

        LPG
        Feb 17, 2015 17:46 PM

        “Cool is the Way”. I love it Franky !!!
        That’s your trademark !

        Hope all’s well on your side.

        Best to you,

        LPG

      Feb 17, 2015 17:23 PM

      Thanks, Marc, for your comment. I know it’s depressing to some as it relates to the lethargic PM sector. I continue to purchase a little stock everytime some of my favorite positions pull back again. That’s why I’ve continuously told folks that they’re going to have to be patient and I mean really patient since I’ve seen these patterns back before 2009 and even back in the 70s. Most folks don’t even have the PM stocks on their screens or even in their minds. That’s the environment I love—that’s where true contrarianism ultimately wins out. Forget the gold price. Most of these PM stocks have been taken to the shed and there’s not a lot of downside for them whereas others technically are still at risk. I feel like I’m beating a dead horse but those who purchase and are willing to wait will be rewarded. Cycles come and cycles go. Buy when the blood is running in the streets as one of the famous investors of all time said.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:50 PM

        RICHARD-DOC
        A very nice, summative post regarding your PM strategy.

        I think I understand how difficult it is to to be informative and interesting, discussing the same topic every day, when your opinion really isn’t changing much. I think focusing on the micro-economics of the DETAILS of buying specific stocks at local bottoms would be most instructive while the macro-economics of the PM markets is stalled.

        Thanks for all of your hard work and patience, Doc

        Brian

        P.S. I think some listeners should replay the audio before commenting … And some posters should check the words with the red “squiggly” line underneath before clicking “SUBMIT COMMENTS” 😉

          Feb 17, 2015 17:36 PM

          +1
          and clean the bubble gum from under the SHIFT key.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:57 PM

        I am having the same experience. My mining stocks are holding up well and still up strongly over the last few months despite the recent correction. When gold goes down, the buyers now seem to come in. This was not the case a year ago.

        I think it really pays to be selective. The etfs have more than their share of dogs in them so unlike the broader markets they aren’t that hard to beat. Pick a half dozen quality names that are either in production or going in to production at a good all in cost and enjoy the ride. Or pick some royalty companies if you prefer. Or do both :). You don’t need to be a rocket scientist. If I can do it, anybody can.

      Feb 17, 2015 17:42 PM

      +1 Marc
      Btw, I have now increased my position in a certain little silver stock by 100%. I think it was about 30% when I mentioned it a month ago.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:26 PM

    Doc, very sage advice. Steady as she goes.

      bb
      Feb 17, 2015 17:45 PM

      Yup, thus the importance of purchasing miners that can still make money with lower prices. Not many out there but there are a few.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:51 PM

        Claude and Kirkland are two of my favorites. Alexco if silver gets above $US19

        Feb 17, 2015 17:18 PM

        bb,

        Yes you and Doc are both correct. You make an excellent point as well. The high quality companies that have real potential to weather this long drawn out attrition storm can be found. But it really takes DD.

        The big and junior producers that can make money at these levels are the key to staying power.

        Additionally, there are a few explorers that have insane potential if they can continue to expand economic grades and drill out an economic ore body and stay in the game long enough to see gold’s next bull phase reemerge.

        Doc has the winning formula, average in to your favorites on any weakness and then just let the market come to you.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:47 PM
      Feb 17, 2015 17:35 PM

      No Way Skeeta!!!! They found a six kilo hoard of gold coins off the beach in Caesarea? Man, I could kick myself. I was there many years ago and also found gold coins that came up on the beach after a storm. I posted that story on this site back in June 2013. But in my wildest dreams it never occurred to me there might be a treasure trove of them nearby. Mine got donated to the local museum after the discovery. And here we are 35 years later and someone else has finally turned up the mother-lode.

      You know, it would not surprise me that someone had read my comments on this site and then decided to look into it a little deeper. Very cool, here is my post from back then:
      ——————————————————–

      On June 20, 2013 at 11:34 pm,
      Bird Man says:

      “I found gold coins in Israel many years ago right off the beach in a place called Caesarea. Easy as snap. I was just digging my toes in the water and they came up pristine as the day they were minted”.

        Feb 17, 2015 17:45 PM

        I guess I get the Goofy award for being the guy who was within meters of a massive coin hoard yet didn’t have the common sense to realize that what I had in my hands were part of a shipwreck! Mind you, I was quite a bit younger then and was not putting two and two together all the time. Still, that’s just crazy. Funny how a story like that comes back to you decades later. Like being mocked by God!

          Feb 17, 2015 17:52 PM

          Great story Bird,
          How many coins did you find?
          I wonder how many guys have been down there at low tide with their metal detectors since the story broke?

            bb
            Feb 17, 2015 17:09 PM

            Don’t kick yourself too much Bird, the museum people never thought of it either.

            Feb 17, 2015 17:53 PM

            So true bb. You would think that my little find would have sent the treasure seekers scurrying for more. Truth is that people turn up old coins and antiquities over there all the time.

            Israel is a funny place that way. You can stick a spade in the earth just about anywhere and turn up something made by humans. I found a few stone spear tips down on the Red Sea for example. It’s just part of the landscape that you see stuff being walked over and nobody even bothers to pick it up.

            Anyway, about those few coins I came across….well I didn’t really give them up voluntarily. Wish I could say I was a great guy but I am not a charity. That was a moment in life you could call it a small education. I showed them around to people who were there that day and the local curator got wind of it pretty quick and umm…liberated them from me!

            bb
            Feb 18, 2015 18:31 AM

            lol, that’ll teach you to open your mouth.

            Never tell people about your gold, remember the stories of the pirates killing the guys that buried the chest? Dead men tell no tales?

            Bad break actually.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:04 AM

            That old expression comes to mind …. Curb your enthusiasm. And it could not be more true. I might get another chance though. There is a famous treasure lost somewhere in the Sahara that people have been looking for for centuries. Lost in the sand somewhere. It was a shipment of tonnes of gold sent by Camel that was lost and presumably all buried in a sandstorm…..I am keeping my eyes open for anything poking out of the dunes! And next time i will definitely shut up about it.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:02 PM

    anyone tune into 321gold today & listen to stewart thomson..??
    Indian market closed today

    BDC
    Feb 17, 2015 17:32 PM

    Tomorrow Fed minutes are released; not
    sure, but there may be ECB activity too.

    Feb 17, 2015 17:10 PM
    Feb 17, 2015 17:18 PM

    The neckline of gold’s reverse H&S pattern has held so far on a closing basis:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p83133866415&a=390238645

    An intraday move lower tomorrow could be all that’s needed for a reversal. Notice the great position of the stochastics.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:27 AM

    “The important point with regard to gold is only this: It turned out that it was actually not possible to truly “demonetize” gold by government decree. The markets decided otherwise.” —Pater Tenebrarum

    http://www.acting-man.com/?p=35868

    NAKED SHORTED……AND BANKRUPT……..defines the miners, per Miles Franklin….
    today at usa watchdog

      Feb 18, 2015 18:29 AM

      J, I recommend to stay out of miners. Governments will try their best to suppress gold price to support low interest rate and QE. Inflation will eat the miner’s lunch. They have to survive the long term loss environemnt and rely on wall street for financing. They will become overly indebted and worth nothing. They also have to print their own worthless paper (shares) to subsidize their loss. I don’t have faith for most miners to make money. Gold will rise with increased difficulty of suppressing its price but it will always rise slower than mining cost inflation. IT IS WHY GOLD IS UP MANY FOLDS AND MINERS ARE MAKING ALL TIME LOWS. I DON”T WANT TO SAY IT HERE SINCE KER NEEDS TO ADVERTIZE FOR MINERS. HOWEVER, I FEEL IT IS REALITY. THE ONLY THING WE CAN DO IS TO TRADE MINERS IF WE TOUCH THEY AT ALL.

        Lawrence, I am on record……that I own zero mining stocks……..phyz only. ….. But, I do applaud those who have made money, and my hat goes off those speculators, that have the ability to grab some gains from trading.
        Now, with that said, I do think there will be a time for me, to definitely own mining shares, but, I just see more manipulation than I care to participate in…..A stock company, must indeed have great management, but, management has less control today than at any point in the last 50 years………..jmho.

    Remember at some point the manipulation will not work any longer, and the PAPER GOLD AND SILVER will just be paper,and the real stuff, will be worth it’s true value, and there will be miners who have a great asset to mine for a profit and these will be rewarded……..

      Feb 18, 2015 18:04 AM

      Agree. Hope it happen soon. I have some companies which make good profit like GoldCorp and Silver Wheaton and SilverCorp which is in China. I can get some dividend while I am holding them. I used to have some more speculative stocks and I have been dumping them on loss because it no longer works in the current environment where government put the lid on on a daily basis. It used to work before 2011-2012 since they at least let it go for a while. Now if you look at the chart, any raise in gold silver price is immediately capped or knocked down. It is so fast and not normal. If the pressure is so high it has to spike, it should not exhaust itself in a second, not all the time at least.

        Only problem with having them in CHINA……CHINA , could take them over if they back the currency …..but, I like the idea of dividends…………………best…………..j

          Feb 18, 2015 18:23 AM

          China is more free than States in economy. Chinese government rarely takes over private companies. They actually privatized a lot of state own companies in the last 30 years. It is why everyone there is TRYING one form or the other running a business in anyway they can. China is totally wrongly represented in US. Government only controls political expression in public. If you go to state owned telivision or Tiananmen square to go against government , you will be punished. But you can say whatever you want in private. For Silver Corp, the local government is counting on it to create jobs. They treat the mine really well and support it. People in that region is famous for rioting so they don’t want too many people unemployed. This is what I hear.

            good to know…………Thanks………..of course I got my info from msn, so , and have been brainwashed from American produced propaganda……….

            Feb 18, 2015 18:39 AM

            I think US and China both get problems and advantages. It is not black and white in either places. In politics, US is definitely much freer than China. But I see Obama is learning fast from China. sigh.