Afternoon Gold Commentary
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Mike; this is what I feel about the dow/gold ratio—-I watch it consistently and feel it’ll be another 2 years before a significant turn down in the ratio occurs. So that means continuing upward pressure on the dow and gentle down pressure on gold. The gold could stay static in a range while the dow trends up. The key MA I’m watching is the 200 month MA which is at about 20.20. It will ultimately intersect pricing as it falls and the dow/gold ratio pricing trends higher. It’s another reason why I’ve been adament that we’re not going to see the next major gold move higher for at least 2 years. When you look at mutiple charts, they will often tell you the potential story. It’s also why I keep harping that you have plenty of time to take low positions on your favorite PM stocks and not chase them when they make a move higher—-just purchase on pullbacks.
Thanks Doc! So patience is required. Uh oh, that’s what the FED is saying…they’ll be “patient” (about interest rate increases). I guess we still have Greece and Ukraine as possible wild cards.
BTW, I like the late day, after the market close, combined commentary. At least occasionally.
Yup, I’m excited. Anyone think we see QE4 this year?
QE is coming when stock market bloodbath takes place so depends when you think that is. There will be no raising rates in 15, 16 and 17. Take it to the bank. Raising rates is fantasy talk.
Dow just hit 18,000
Like always, job data has to get bad first. Remember the Fed’s barometer is job data. As job data gets bad, the manipulators allow gold stocks to rise. Last time QE was announced, gold had a nice run up until right after the announcement. By the way, Jim Rickards believes monetary reset won’t happen until maybe fall 2016. If he’s right, I wonder what that means for gold stocks.
watch out for what ever JIM RICHARDS SAYS……..he has been an insider, and there seems to be some question as to what he is saying and who he is representing, AS, KERBY says…..He is a scumbag…..his quote……..
Kirby…not Kerby…………..sorry
I think it makes no difference whether we see QE4 as long as market thinks stock is still a place to invest and people still perceive USD is the king.. look what happens with QE3, rising USD/stocks aka perceived confidence in US hedgemony.. once stock gain is quasi-guaranteed, PM is over or flat at best. Also I dont think we see significant rate rise either… raising rate is supposed to fight inflation (by inflation I really mean good inflation not money supply)… we have none… they will just keep talking about rate rise.. IMHO
I don’t think gold will go up tomorrow. This bounce was weak anyway.
It’s going lower toward 1130 NOW IMHO. We’ll see soon. I’m on sidelines since i sold.
Waiting for RSI to get into bloodbath phase
Gold has continued up in after-hours trading, but my concern is that it could be a head-fake and still head down further.
Many are trumpeting this $14 move as the bounce we were expecting, but I wasn’t overly thrilled with the bounce we have seen so far. I would want to see a much larger bounce of $30-$50 in one-two sessions to confirm the short term bottom is in. Gary and Doc have both felt fairly confident that the daily cycle low would be this week.
Tomorrow & Friday will tell the tale.
I agree. $30 would be convincing. I think lower high has been put in and now we’re going to form a lower low at probably 1100-1080. Maybe this bear market will conclude very soon rather in summer. Or maybe like Gary and Doc said it will go to now 1240 and head back down. Like you said we’ll see. My gut tells me we’re going lower next week. RSI is not even oversold on miners. I don’t like that but that’s me.
Stewie, good observation about the RSI—-that also bothers me and tells me we might have to move lower yet.
So we are really saying that the metals are an avoid now and we should focus on the conventional markets – tech stocks in particular?
Looks like gold is a big yawn, still in a bear market in US dollars. However, the correction is much less in Euro terms but for us in the UK it is almost as bad in Sterling as it is in the dollar, heading to 61.8% correction of the recent upmove and possibly beyond.
I think tech stocks have more potential now than gold BUT… simply wondering if we will get a pullback before going higher.
Just a comment in terms of the long term …
I’ve been listening to the commentary and reading the posts for a couple years. The bearishness seems to be accelerating and really digging it’s heels in. Not a knock on the site, just a reflection of the real market in its purest sense – people. It just may really grind out. And it feels like that. But with today’s geopolitical landscape things can change quickly. We just don’t know what’s going on behind the curtain. As long as you have a sleepable position why worry about all the indicators and what their saying. Sleep well!
Richard at 3’15sec mentioned about the Fed:
“I don’t see them LOWERING rates at all in the near future”.
🙂 🙂 🙂
LPG; you’re sharp—-that would be “raising” rates.
I’m not sharp Richard.
I TRY to listen carefully. I try…. 🙂
Best to you,
LPG
NO NEED TO GET EXCITED, THE RIGGING BOYS ARE STILL IN FULL EFFECT…………….PLEASE NOTE………….that even if we get a GREXIT, and GOLD POP’S up $200 to ABOVE $1400……….THE RIGGING BOYS will HAMMER it right back DOWN to $1200 or below……………..SORRY BUT THE MARKETS ARE GONE……….it’s just their FINGERS on the BUTTON NOW…..SAD, very sad…………….and look at that BALTIC DRY INDEX, now at a RECORD LOW OF 509 POINTS
Al, Doc, Gary and Cory,
This was another outstanding daily snippet. Just very sensible, well grounded and realistic views and opinions on the reality of the market and price action.
I think Gary and Doc have these price targets and timelines nailed pretty close to what will actually play out.
The coming weeks and months are going to present some superb buying/trading opportunities to add to, and take positions at excellent price levels oscillating between $1,000 – $1,280 gold.
No panic, emotions or hyperbole. Just steady as she goes.
Thanks so much guys.
Agreed Vortex. Well said, and great interview guys.
Thanks much Shad,
The PM world in general needs more solid commentary like the guys provided today.
take care
To sum up: Nothing has changed.
Stay short the metals and miners. GDX will hit single digits. Thank me later everyone.
Tom, with time GDX should challenge 17.5 by April. However, the monthly charts don’t show currently a single digit price. If that were to occur, it will be months from now due to the way the bollinger bands are positioned right now on the monthly charts—of course that could change but it would take considerable weeks.
The price move from the November low to January 21 was probably the first minor trend in a new upward price movement. This has occurred as most investors expect the new lows to be the “new normal” or as others are still expecting the “final lows” characterized by nausea and fear, and for the dollar to go up infinitely.
The correction you have already gotten may be all the correction you are going to get.
Gabriel; good chart and an important chart. It’s one I follow religiously and is very important. The long term uptrend line remains in place and we’re approaching it again. That’s one reason why I hoped for a strong February with a move in gold to at least 1280—-that was because the spring is often not that favorable to gold and it would have been nice to see higher prices before the advent of March.
Doc, can we keep this chart public here? I agree, important…as will others.
Pin it to your wall Tenyear….it is the last ember of hope that the bull market that began 15 years ago is still alive. If the chart breaks down then we can finally put that idea to rest and divide the past gold bull from the one that is coming in the future.
This one particular argument promoted by the gold-camp has really boiled my blood over the past few years because it was used like a blunt club to keep a lot of people invested in metals who probably should have sold and bought something that was actually making money.
Instead, portfolios withered and prices slumped relentlessly right up until today as the less informed bought the story at face value and knuckled under to await the coming of golds grand renaissance. remember, that chart was also used as the primary evidence that gold was going to 12,000 dollar or much much higher.
Roughly four years have now passed and the cold embers of “Gold is still in a bull market!!” are sounding pretty hollow to anyone who saw murderous bloodied losses and the pitiful crys are haunting even some of the staunchest of the cult.
The losses exceeded 90% in the case of some stocks. And that is simple proof for witnesses to the carnage that you must think for yourself in the investing jungle and not fall in with that camp of trumpet blowers and charlatans who only know self interest and their own sorry pride.
So I look on that chart rather disdainfully as it is emblematic of the foolishness that ruled the world of precious metals investors and suckered so many of the gullible into making costly mistakes. Lets hope that nobody starts resurrecting that pathetic anthem of delusion.
If it breaks down then the old gold bull is finally dead.
I mean….what rational person can keep saying with a straight face that what we are experiencing in gold is just a bull market decline that will soon recover. As if the crash in prices was just a simple correction. They always seem to forget that the intervals between peaks and valleys matter too. So the time it takes for a single month corrective decline to complete is hardly the same as a 48 month death trap. Come on people! That is ridiculous after this much time has gone by.
Birdman, what’s with all the drama? “It was used like a blunt club to keep a lot of people invested in metals…” Seriously?! Do you get just as upset when one points out that the sky is blue until it isn’t?
I do not point out that gold has been in a CYCLICAL bear within a SECULAR bull because I care if anyone invests or not, I do so because it’s a fact. So it is the IRRATIONAL person that says otherwise with a straight face.
Your cyclical bear thesis is another persons bankrupted portfolio you fool. Just give up on the secular bull nonsense once and for all. You think someone who got wiped out listening to your facts gives a rats ass if you are technically correct or not? Please spare us the jargon and drama because that kind of talk caused a lot of people to overstay the market and eventually sell with devastating losses.
“But its’ secular Birdman…its secular” ….blah blah blah blah….waste of everyones time.
You know its going to break down I hope. Live and learn.
You really are off your rocker if you can’t handle someone simply pointing out a fact. What one does with facts is their business and none of my concern. Those who get wiped out only have themselves to blame.
Now PLEASE go take your meds.
Yes, the pumpers and promoters like you can absolve themselves of all responsibility. Because it is up to readers and investors to know better. You can deny that you tried to influence outcomes although some of us know better. What you do and say has no bearing in your mind…right? Buyer beware and do your own DD.
But please tell me..whats in it for you to push the Secular bull agenda myth? If it really doesn’t matter then why are you so insistent about the so-called facts? Since it doesn’t matter then why are you making such an effort to prove your point?
Really Matthew….why all the effort if it does not matter? In fact, you do carry some responsibility and the reason for that is because you hold yourself out to be some chart expert with the keys to riches.
If you are going to manipulate the thinking of others then it better become your concern quickly.
Meds!!! Seriously.
Most of the gold bugs who are still solvent and still come to this site can see through your bullshit. Your “secular” gold bull argument is not very interesting anymore to people who lost most of their money hearing it.
And It makes you sound like an idiot at this stage.
It’s funny that you have no issue with Doc when he also points out that the secular bull is intact.
There’s obviously not an objective or unemotional cell in that bat-shit crazy brain of yours. Of course, it’s not surprising coming from someone who is too clueless to see the ridiculous humor in your suggestion that I “speak from the heart” to get your respect. LMFAO, that’s what we need, more speaking from the heart – NOT facts or analysis!
No wonder you think you’re an expert on everything; reality is your Rodney Dangerfield -can’t get no respect.
So if you invoke Doc’s name then that enhances your credibility? That’s funny, because I have never heard him use your name when making a point to support his case!
I don’t think you even know how ridiculous it sounds to others when you state “We are still in a secular bull market in gold”. To the guy reading his broker statement and feeling destroyed because his life savings were wiped out in the declines since 2011 you sound like an idiot.
Don’t you think maybe the words “bull market” are a little inconsistent with the reality a lot of gold investors are faced with? A bull suggests profit and opportunity, not devastating losses.
Basically you are just playing with words. You cannot call what is happening a cyclical bear in any case until AFTER THE FACT. That is to say that the moment gold breaks below the trend line your bull thesis goes up in smoke and four years of insisting the bull was still intact will instantly prove you were wrong all along!
Who are you trying to sell that claptrap to anyway?
Re: “Basically you are just playing with words.”
-Playing with words or ignoring their meanings altogether is exactly what you do. I am precise with definitions. It takes one heck of an ignorant nut to say: “I don’t think you even know how ridiculous it sounds to others when you state “We are still in a secular bull market in gold”.
Re: “You cannot call what is happening a cyclical bear in any case until AFTER THE FACT.”
-Absurd and dead wrong. Even if we do end up with a new secular bear market, it will still have been a cyclical bear. Bull or bear secular trends each consist of BOTH bull and bear cyclical trends. The time of Bre-X, for example, was a cyclical bull within a secular bear.
Re: “That is to say that the moment gold breaks below the trend line your bull thesis goes up in smoke and four years of insisting the bull was still intact will instantly prove you were wrong all along!”
-This is just plain nuts! I have “insisted” (again, such drama, how about RECOGNIZED) that the secular trend is intact because it IS. A future breakdown would not make my past observations “instantly wrong all along” -not even slightly. If you hadn’t already proven yourself to be more than a little off, I would think that you’re pulling a prank on me right now. You get an “F” for comprehension.
You should really try your hand at working in a bureaucracy. Guys like you usually fit right in. All logic and no common sense. This is just another case of proving you are right by word play yet being totally wrong in the conclusion. Hey Matty!….is the world flat too? Ha Ha Ha Ha!!! I am repeatedly amazed at how so-called educated people can be so incredibly stupid sometimes.
Gaberiel,
I would suggest that these long term trend lines are meaningless. At virtually every D-wave bottom of this entire bull market not only has the long term trend line been broken but gold has generally corrected enough to test the previous C-wave top.
This is one reason I keep expecting gold to reach $1050. It would constitute a test of the 2007 C-wave top and fall in line with every other major correction in gold.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=12&mn=6&dy=0&id=p31268114163&a=390436222&listNum=1
Nice Gary!
I agree Gary. We can see lower price.
The Fed wont raise rates for a year. Equities rise. Gold is dead money until the paper market shows some cracks.
Make money in equities, secure a little bit of your profits in bullion.
Gold is heavily manipulated, unless you understand the banks trading pattern, you are playing in a dangerous sandbox. Fibonacci may help, but fundamentals surely don’t. Keeping the Petro-Dollars will need more wars maybe …
But we have a 50% retracement, BB tightening and a momentum confirmation on
the monthly … So we should have a B wave or a new uptrend for wave 5 …
GOLD AGAIN ……GOES HIGHER IN HONG KONG………….
What I´m seen is the conventional market screaming in volatility and making a “bearish golden cross” on the mounthly chart, as the dollar doing too. Gold is doing a “bullish golden cross” on the mounthly chart, and for me It´s very positive. Another good sign for gold was in the COMEX that I saw huge buying in the FOMC Minutes.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/35j1gp6kbjdmse5/GLD2.jpg?dl=0
We have a MACD signal and the Bollinger Band are tightening …
Question: wave 5 or a B wave of a larger correction ?
anyone of the opinion that gold could continue higher until the Fed raises rates? Perhaps for another 6 months….then dropping hard. Could be an interesting play.
who knows for sure.
REAL ESTATE……..MORT.PURCHASE APPS…..down 66% since 2004….zerohedge.
India…..today lifts ban on gold coins…………zerohedge
gold going higher………..
Gold 1217 is my call……………………
Good late day segment and warranted for sure.
Gold and GDXJ broke support and bounced back big. The traders watching entered short and got hammered in the move. So, very few are short and most are long. That being said, we could see a big move down tonight.
If gold goes up tomorrow, it will be a while before we see the actual bottom. Crazy times….
did not happen
that is last nite….it did not happen
But, LONDON FIXERS ….are just waking up………and in a couple of hours, the trigger might be pulled……………we will see…………………CRAZY TIMES….INDEED.
WELL …..London fix is in and same as usual smash, boom ,bang……….
I don’t understand your post Chartster. Not the part about a big move down anyway. I had projected a decline in gold all the way back to 1200 on the 29th of January and it was achieved almost to perfection. We actually fell just a few dollars lower although that had also been considered. Blind luck? Maybe……I guess it depends on how much faith you have. By inference though (and since the prediction did in fact come true) then it would be obvious that was the sell figure on the short side and the time to enter long again. In other words, get out of gold short positions at 1200. So for example you would dump DUST and go with NUGT at the inferred interim bottom. There was two trades there. Both have panned out. I don’t yet have a next high however.
Below is an interview by mining entrepreneur Tommy Humphries with mining expert John Kaiser. Just a fabulous interview about the possible direction of junior mining investments opening up to small investors which at this moment is only open to Accredited Investors worth $1 Million dollars or more.
Fascinating stuff and I hope it actually happens. The Canadian brokers who naked short sell most of these little companies into the ground will fight such a change tooth and nail.
Like I said, the Accredited Investors policy currently in place basically blocks 95% of the retail market participants from having a level playing field on direct investments in companies and should be outlawed just a John Kaiser lays out.
Let’s see if this gets any traction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rv4QS94_2nI
V
A new group of sheep will be skinned
The Central Planners will keep precious metals contained….PERIOD.
Expect more trading range until all hell breaks loose with systematic
collapse of the financial system. Until that big black swan hits they
will use paper to cap the price. I don’t buy the forums board thinking
inside the box of conventional wisdom. When that day comes …the
Big Bad Arse Black Swan….Prices will just explode daily.
Its so obvious what the game plan is. Precious metals are capped
until the financial systems implosion.
If you have been invested in precious metals for a number of years
right now this is how you should feel ….click on the video. The other
problem gold bugs are wimps and the establishment has squashed
everyone of them. There is no outrage and protest.
Click on the video and its time to be pissed off and upset. Damn it #1
STOP BEING WIMPS….click on the video and get enraged. Damn it #2
Bad acting. I bet he has all his money in a Dow index fund.
I agree with your first line…………….ditto…………….
I agree with they will paper the cap the price….
The central planners have the plans to rearrange all the
rules and laws when precious metals explode.
We are going into a whole new paradigm.
J…..its unfortunate but its reality.
I would have to agree with you again…HH…………………….j
Sorry to hear that…J
Anyway, its a real tragedy and unfortunately
I believe just to have necessities will be a
challenge in the future. I know people are
optimistic but I just don’t see it.
Too many crimes taken place without justice.
Maybe if you want to break laws someone might
do well. I’d rather die than take advantage of people
though. Not even breaking laws.
This world is also on a Death Spiral and if citizens of the world
don’t start standing up against these politicians/criminals there
will be tyranny. Everything is at risk. Your home, family and way
of life. There is absolutely no reason to be optimistic about a world
being runned by criminals. Lawlessness is in our governments and
financial institutions etc. Its multiplying by leaps and bounds every
year. People are just crossing borders and no one cares.
The internet is making things much worse because everyone is sitting
behind a computer and our nation is crumbling to pieces in the meantime.
No one cares but citizens of the world will, when there is nothing left to save
and the criminals own you, your life and family.
There’s a huge laundry list why this world is speeding down a slippery slope
into the hands of these criminals.
ITS TIME TO STAND UP AND BE VERY UPSET. or our way of life is going to be “finito”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCx9NVSM1qw
Until we take back our sound doctrines in our society and eliminate lawlessness
life will become unbearable very soon. COUNT ON IT. Money won’t save you either.
Reason : Lawlessness has no boundries. They will just take what you have.
All countries and nations are at high risk. Until that’s fixed profits with investments
is an illusion and just false hopes.
HH………….3 JOHN …1:3
J….isn’t that….The Truth.
Many though turn the truth into lies.
Glossed over and twisted. Everything
is fine. Stock market is doing well.
uh huh ….
If we get one of Rick’s ABCDdown moves then it will have a rally here then a move $110 lower, because the first leg is from $1308 to $1198. The target for a CD movce would be somewhere bove $1088.
………….AND THE BEAT GOES ON…………….THEY ARE DOING ANY OR EVERYTHING at this point………………..to survive !!!
ever trap a wild animal in a cage……………same goes here……
……….THAT WAS JUST TOTAL BULL on those JOBS NUMBERS this morning……..THEY just TOOK BACK everything that they LOST last week…………and the LIES GO ON.
Until these criminals are put on trial and locked up lawlessness
is going to increase 100 fold or more. Nothing is safe anymore.
Our very lives are at high risk. That’s how intense it is. This is a grand
deceptively planned take down of our society. Frank Dodd Volker act
was removed. Your deposits are now the banks property. Aliens crossing
the borders to dismantle nations. America is advocating more debt is good.
Optimism is totally unwarranted until lawlessness is a crime punishable in
prison.
EVERYTHING IS PIE IN THE SKY AND PIPE DREAMS. Within 1 year we will
see things we could not imagine. This excludes war.
…………SEE……..I TOLD ALL OF YOU YESTERDAY not to get EXCITED about the GOLD PRICE RISE……….LOOK AT THEM…………THE RIGGING BOYS ARE HARD AT WORK RIGHT NOW.
When the US finally falls on its own weight of high leverage finances
and system people living in other countries especially 3rd world will
be meal tickets to grab properties and everything they own.
This lawlessness that is driving our way of life into human misery has
not even reached the warm up stage.
The train is already in slow motion derailing off the tracks. When people
feel disparity and become more poverty stricken society will come apart.
This lawlessness currently in motion is extremely tragic for all people.
We are not safe and especially 3rd world countries. Until lawlessness is
put away we have tragedies coming and our very lives are at stake.
Can’t prosper if lawlessness is going to be a crime that goes unpunished.
The world is becoming dangerous. Its not a problem just yet but its going
to be in our daily living. If we can survive.
…………….THESE GUYS ARE BEYOND CRIMINAL.
Way beyond….never in history have we seen such
lawlessness.
Any optimism right now is foolish until lawlessness
to exterminated or under control.
With all investments. Unfortunately long term.
Criminals are running everything. Corruption
in almost all institutions and its tragic in governments
.
A systematic breakdown. Unfolding right now.
JUST A replay of the ROMAN EMPIRE…………….HH……………………J
J……you did it again.
In 2 words. I better get to
the back of the class.
All those silly posts and
the story is told in 2 words.
I tried, just not the sharpest tool
in the shed. Reality check ! : )
No,,,most do not know anything about the Roman Empire……….so, you should just keep speaking up………………………………………
You’re right J…about that.
Hey…they can always google it…
Save me some time !!!
Although, I think this is the breaking point.
Just before the great fall.
if they google it………….they will find out the” truth.”, not really…if you know what I mean…………………….lol
Very true…J
Thats funny. Thanks for the good laugh.
Alex Jones video the one he says. ..he’s so angry he can’t even talk.
pounding the table….that video had me laughing off my stool.
J…..the biggest problem today is no one is upset with all these
crimes against humanity. We have been brainwashed thinking
getting upset is a crime. And that is a crime. DUMBED DOWN.
Thats what they have done brainwashing us over many years.
You are absolutely 100% correct…..coexist……with a bunch of birdbrains…..
J…..haaa..haaaaaa !!!!!
Thanks for the laugh.
Very true. You’re on top of
this garbage. No doubt. : )
I guess no one shares our humor……….lol
J……..that’s OK…..”we”
are both…OOTB
You’re the leader and chief though. Irreplaceable !!!!
I’m just following on cue… : )
2 BOOTB
YEP !!!!! : )
I’m excited…if this is the first comment. Any timeframe for gold at 1250-1280? The DOW/gold ratio has shot back up to 15.02. Not really good Doc. What about equities? Will we ever see a significant correction? Or, don’t fight the Fed…?