Minimize

Welcome!

Wednesday and The Doctor Is In

Big Al
February 18, 2015

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
127 Comments
    Feb 18, 2015 18:06 AM

    Wow. This move looks impressive. Liking the look. Glen, Matt- what do you think?

        Feb 18, 2015 18:11 PM

        Thanks Matthew, looks like at least a good rebound (;-)

          Feb 18, 2015 18:31 PM

          Doc – Thanks for pointing out the potential in the Rare Earth space now that the bloodbath has occurred the last few years. The space is at rock bottom, and while most of the companies will never make it, there are a few companies to watch.

          The last 3-4 years has been particularly brutal and pricing has fallen through the floor putting on hold most projects, stopping financing in its track, and also exploration, and the Rare Earths bubble from a few years ago became laughable to most. The problem is when people throw out the baby with the bathwater.

          The 2 companies that expanded into production Molycorp (MCP) and Lynas (LYSCF) have had all kinds of problems meeting deadlines, with finances as the prices fell, with environmental groups, with the Chinese dealings with marketplace, and a despite progressing both their projects forward, people sold on their good news as well as the bad.

          Great Western Minerals (GWMGF) – is unique in the space in that it already produces specialty metals, and has a growing pipeline of incoming cash flow. In addtion they have an exploration project turning into a mine so they get roped in the with rare earth explorers. Much of what they produce still utilizes combining base metals with Rare Earths to make unique alloys. Great Western Minerals are going to be the 3rd company that is producing REEs from their own supply and then creating higher margins products from their own feed. They may do be more likee Molycorp and do the “mines to magnet” approach (integrated supply channel).

          Other companies to watch that have a potential are Tasman, Avalon, Quest, Commerce Resources, Arafura, Frontier, and Pele Mountain Resources. Those companies each have real projects that actually may see the light of day for various reasons and are the standouts in the sector beyond MCP, LYSCF, and GWMGF. Although, right now, the whole space is at rock bottom.

          If Molycorp and Lynas can get their acts together this year, and if pricing inches up just a little, it will help their economics and may lift certain explorers in the space.

          Definitely a sector to start watching again.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:43 PM

            Molycorp bought a really interesting company (NeoMaterials) right as things started going downhill and it is a manufacturer of specialty magnetic powders. This was a great company to acquire, but they overpaid for it right as prices tanked. Then, since most of what they produce is the Light Rare Earths those prices fell hardest. The Heavy Rare Earths are favored for future explorers like what Tasman, Avalon, Arafura, and Commerce Resources have. Molycorp also has created a new product that filters municipal water systems and swimming pools using the Cerium they produce. They just overspent on acquisitions and mine expansion at the exact wrong time in the cycle, but they are the leader in the space outside of China.
            It is also interesting to see the interest from the Japanese and Koreans, and car manufacturers, in partnering with the small explorers to lock in the source of more product outside of China’s stranglehold.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:47 PM

            Here is a post from an article from “Rare Earth Investing News” on Jan 21st that features John Hykawy:

            “At Cambridge House International’s 2015 Vancouver Resource Investment Conference, Resource Investing News spoke with Jon Hykawy, president and director of Stormcrow Capital, about the state of the rare earths market and what’s ahead for rare earths prices in 2015.

            For 2014, Hykawy said that the biggest surprise was how well the price of praseodymium held up as a separated material. However, he noted that although praseodymium is a magnet material, the price rise was actually due to sales into the ceramic industry. Overall, he saw no real surprises for the year as “prices went down” and “volumes that were used went down.”

            That isn’t the most positive picture, but on the bright side, Hykawy added that increased demand is starting to materialize. “We don’t see much further collapse possible … likely this year what we’re in for is a stabilization in prices and a slow increase in those prices moving forward,” he said.

            Though Hykawy conceded that the rare earths industry in China is still a mystery, he seemed hopeful that a rare earths industry could in fact materialize outside of the country. He suggested that strategic investors that might finance companies outside of China will consider projects that are:

            long term
            cost competitive
            in a stable geopolitical environment
            producing the materials they need (which he cited as magnet materials)

            For Hykawy, companies like Rare Element Resources (TSX:RES) and Arafura (ASX:ARU) fit the bill.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:11 PM

        Here’s another, potentially more bullish, way to look at gold (GLD here):
        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p00855184179&a=390324591

        Feb 18, 2015 18:22 PM

        Thanks Matt.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:36 PM

        as usual your charts are spectacular. hope they come true 🙂

        Feb 18, 2015 18:08 PM

        SGDM was capped by Fibonacci resistance and, to the penny, the 55 day EMA.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:55 PM

        do you think we come down one last time before up?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:12 PM

      We will have a comment in about an hour.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:25 PM

      Doc Fan,

      Sorry for the late reply as I have plenty on my plate currently. Today we had a bounce of that 1198 region. Although it was not the pop that I was expecting, it has had some follow through into the midnight hours. Personally im not sure of what to think of with this weak pop. Im invested 1/4th a position but frankly 1187 keeps screaming at me. With options expiry on the 24th, I would have thought and remain keen on another smack down tomorrow and Friday. I could be very wrong and I will see what the morning brings.

      good luck to all.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:13 AM

    ISIS ON CNN ! AND GOLD UP ! DIS IS THE COMPUTER GAME MARKET TV MANIPULATION ! NO MORE FREEDOM ! NO MORE !

      Feb 18, 2015 18:13 PM

      It almost does feel like a computer game doesn’t it Franky!

    Feb 18, 2015 18:15 AM

    Rare Earths….thanks Doc. I will look into it. I really know very little about the sector except I once recall hearing that almost all the mining was taking place in China other than a couple small companies in Canada and the US.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:19 AM

      BUY SAME Molycorp ( MCP ) Birdman ! And go on a holyday !

        Feb 18, 2015 18:24 AM

        Thanks Franky…that was the name I was searching for. Canadian I think. I am going to go check it out now. I actually really like this idea of Docs. There has been shortages of materials for years and demand is growing, especially on the military side. Other than that I am not too informed but now I have a pet project for the week.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:33 AM

          Yes MAN ! A rare metal dat keeps popping up at a low price from nowhere ! Ha Ha

          Feb 18, 2015 18:17 PM

          Interesting story about your neck of the woods.

          A member of our Parish (caucasian) married an African woman. She had, I believe one child. Her sister was then slaughtered leaving, I believe four kids. Mike went over to Africa, grabbed the kids and then he and his wife adopted them.

          All of a sudden, instant large family.

          After Mass last Sunday, Mike stood up and said that thanks to an anonymous donor his family would be traveling back to Africa so that the kids could reconnect with their roots.

          You would have to have been there, but Big Al got tears in his eyes. I mean here is this unique family that stands out wherever they go.

          There is goodness in this world if you simply spot it!

            Feb 18, 2015 18:32 PM

            Great story Al. I am guessing you are talking about Rwanda. I have never been there but hear it is booming like crazy. They have quite a young demographic picture. Amazing how much things change since the bad old days. This is really something I think other investors need to keep in mind. Youth drives economies. Even in bad times those countries can flourish and with median ages in the teens some of these countries are entering a renaissance period of growth. The African story is still pretty much overlooked by most though. I read stories where media lip service is paid and how great it is (blah blah blah) but the facts are that Western business has still a long way to go to get engaged over here. Mostly it is Chinese companies, Turks, Indians and a smattering of Europeans. The ones who come are doing well though despite the slowness of the systems and underdeveloped infrastructure. Just so everyone knows though…there are still opportunities in other parts of the world and this one is pretty much still an unknown destination for adventure capitalists.

            Feb 19, 2015 19:12 PM

            What of the Caucasian mans blood line? Has it not ended as a Caucasian bloodline due to miscegenation? By definition this is anti white genocide. Race is real and it matters.
            Breeding true to ones species and race honors ones father and mother and by extension it honors God. Doing otherwise is an attack on God’s creation. We are not all the same nor should we be.

      bb
      Feb 18, 2015 18:24 PM

      Ive read so much is in China its almost a monopoly.
      Molycorp was U.S. if I recall correctly, you will need DD on it, they reopened the mine then had some issues.
      I don’t remember enough to even give you a clue, all I can say is do the DD special for that one.

        bb
        Feb 18, 2015 18:26 PM

        That was Molycorp I was talking about.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:38 PM

        OK Thanks bb. I have just started looking into a few articles over at Seeking Alpha. Looks pretty interesting so far.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:42 PM

        BB – Molycorp is the largest producer outside of China, and there is also Lynas, and soon to be Great Western Minerals that will be third to produce from its own mine.

        Other companies to watch that have a potential are Tasman, Avalon, Quest, Commerce Resources, Arafura, Frontier, and Pele Mountain Resources. Those companies each have real projects that actually may see the light of day for various reasons and are the standouts in the sector beyond MCP, LYSCF, and GWMGF. Although, right now, the whole space is at rock bottom.

        Molycorp bought a really interesting company (NeoMaterials) right as things started going downhill and it is a manufacturer of specialty magnetic powders. This was a great company to acquire, but they overpaid for it right as prices tanked. Then, since most of what they produce is the Light Rare Earths those prices fell hardest. The Heavy Rare Earths are favored for future explorers like what Tasman, Avalon, Arafura, and Commerce Resources have. Molycorp also has created a new product that filters municipal water systems and swimming pools using the Cerium they produce. They just overspent on acquisitions and mine expansion at the exact wrong time in the cycle, but they are the leader in the space outside of China.

        It is also interesting to see the interest from the Japanese and Koreans, and car manufacturers, in partnering with the small explorers to lock in the source of more product outside of China’s stranglehold.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:54 PM

          I didn’t include Matamec, Rare Element Resources, and Ucore to this list of rare earth companies to watch earlier, as I was just doing it from quick reflection, but they have interesting projects as well.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:56 PM

        I bought two equities for rare earth in China. One went up 50% and the other tripled in the last three years. Not bad, unfortunately A shares can only be purchase by Chinese. I bought through my family.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:34 PM

      Bird – See my post towards the top as I threw out a few companies to check out in the Rare Earth space. It may be some food for thought.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:30 PM

        Lots of information there for me to look into. I appreciate the tips Shad and am of course interested in any of those companies that have better than even odds of going into production. We get too bogged down on gold here anyway. There is a universe of other resources we rarely ever discuss.

          Feb 19, 2015 19:31 PM

          Agreed. There is more to life than just Gold. I love commodities, energy, and technology for investing and there are a lot of different areas that will have their moment in the sun during various cycles. Best to you!

    Feb 18, 2015 18:17 AM

    Doc am I hearing you calling for lower low below 1130ish?
    Doc by when do you expect oil to bottom and what price?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:28 AM

      Stewie, the odds are oil has one more small leg down into the low 30s.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:03 PM

        Thank you doc

    Feb 18, 2015 18:22 AM

    Molycorp has huge debt better is Avalon…

      Feb 18, 2015 18:24 AM

      Thanks Agatha. Any other names you can throw out to get me started?

        Feb 18, 2015 18:28 AM

        Rare Element Resources, RES.to

        http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=res.to

          Feb 18, 2015 18:32 AM

          Cool. Thanks to you too Dan. Up more than 400% in February? Wow….so what’s behind these sudden moves? Anybody know? Did the Chinese just say they would stop shipping to the West or something?

            Feb 18, 2015 18:58 PM

            I heard that the supply tighten up in China.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:04 PM

            This article said three reasons:
            China reduces export,
            Restructure the industry by closing bad mines
            Crackdown on export illegal trafficking

            Feb 18, 2015 18:05 PM

          Now that is a chart……

            Feb 18, 2015 18:38 AM

            Has an RSI of 82 so it is overbought at this time. I have followed this stock for awhile and was thinking it was going out of business not winding up for a huge windfall. Doh!

            Better short it ,,,,quick………………….:0)

          Feb 18, 2015 18:46 AM

          Now that’s a good murk. Also good time to short this

        Feb 18, 2015 18:35 AM

        Correct, Agatha. I’ve purchased AVL down at the 20 cent area. I don’t like MCP because of their huge debt issues. Of course, you’re betting on AVL for their future mining possibilities. Certain of the rare earths have seen a nice spike up in prices, especially those used for large magnets. Years ago, America was the leader in rare earths but China now produces 70-90% of rare earths— a lot of the production is illegally done in China and the government is cracking down on that and the smuggling. Rare earths really aren’t that rare; what makes them rare is the tremendous cost of mining and separation. I didn’t get a chance to talk about this more on the show today since time was running out. Bird, we’ve had a nice spike and I believe technically it has a little more room to run higher but then expect AVL and MCP to settle back again. I believe there’ll be a better point of entry in the future again. l had to purchase some AVL since it was getting ridiculously priced. Bird, hope this helps.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:51 AM

          Thank you Richard. I am really interested in this topic actually as it has been something kind of slow burning in the back of my mind for awhile but I just never got around to following it up. You have caught my attention though. I would be pretty happy to hear any other ideas you have if you have time to talk about it again.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:06 PM

            Bird, always happy to do that.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:34 PM

            Cheers Doc! Looking forward to more.

            Feb 18, 2015 18:51 PM

            I just posted even more information at the top of this blog Bird if you are interested in more info the REE space.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:06 PM

          Doc, I follow about a dozen rare earth companies and have for about 6 years, so now only the survivors. I agree with your thoughts on Avalon and Molycorp above.

          What are your thoughts on Lynas? They finally got their overseas separation plant into production the Lynas Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP), located in Kuantan in Pahang, Malaysia. However, for the last 2 years they had some of the most interesting environmental protests blocking the barges, delivery of product, and got the whole country in an uproar where it became be politics. If you read the news releases from 2013 and 2014 now (I read them as they were breaking news) they are full of crazy radical protester and political positioning.

          Regardless, Lynas got the plant built, got it approved, have passed all the environmental tests with flying colors, but it set them back about 18 months in production, and capped their production amounts for the first 6-12 months due to all the government scrutiny. Now they have money issues and WAAAY to many shares, but they are now a global source for REEs. They don’t have the advanced production of magnets and alloys the Molycorp and Great Western have but they are out there and actually got their project completed.

          Do you think they’ll do a major reverse stock split and then get re-rated by the marketplace?

          It is important to see if one or both Molycorp or Lynas will fall due their precarious amount of debt, because it will affect all the up and coming explorers with PEAs and Feasibility studies. The whole world watched these two giants get their production plants going and saw just how expensive it was.

          My problem with Tasman, Avalon, Quest, Rare Element Resources, Pele Mountain, Arafura, Frontier, and Commerce Resources is that they don’t have anywhere close to the capital needed to build out their projects, and with both the big producers in hot water, the financial markets have turned a blind eye the last few years.

          Is 2015 the year that prices stabilize and turn around?

            Feb 18, 2015 18:39 PM

            The one interesting thing that happened at Lynas in December of last year is that the 14 year prior CEO and Chairman Nick Curtis finally stepped down, and they have 2 very quality management appointees in their new Chairman and Non-Executive director.

            In 2011-214, I used to go into the Lynas and Molycorp chat rooms on Yahoo Finance for pure entertainment as everyone was at everyone else’s throats . I have never seen such hatred and horrible things said about the captain of the helm at Lynas (Nick Curtis). People have been calling for him to step down for years and now that he just did, I am curious to see if they will reinvent themselves and take a more managed approach. Anyone have any thought on Lynas that has a longer term perspective, and some understanding of their past?

            Feb 18, 2015 18:33 PM

            Interesting this is coming up now. I had no idea most of you guys were so keen on Rare Earths. We learn something new everyday. I think its great we can get another line of discussion going too…sometimes lately gold has been a real bore.

            Feb 19, 2015 19:42 PM

            Yes, it is nice to discuss all the hard assets which to me are all the metals & minerals (PMs & Base Metals & Critical Metals like Rare Earths, Tungsten & Potash/Fertilizers).

            For energy, I am a fan of Oil, Uranium, Lithium (for batteries), solar, wind, other green energy ideas, and some of the energy efficiency companies like Orion Energy Systems, LIME, and Hubbell. It’s a big investing universe out there!

        Feb 18, 2015 18:54 PM

        Companies to watch that have a potential are Tasman, Avalon, Quest, Commerce Resources, Arafura, Frontier, and Pele Mountain Resources. Those companies each have real projects that actually may see the light of day for various reasons and are the standouts in the sector beyond the producers Molycorp, Lynas, and soon to be Great Western Minerals.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:53 PM

          I didn’t include Matamec, Rare Element Resources, and Ucore to this list of rare earth companies to watch earlier, as I was just doing it from quick reflection, but they have interesting projects as well.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:36 AM

      I now a High price is what we need Crazy World ! Rare element is 1 more !

    Feb 18, 2015 18:29 AM

    OK…that was weird….Gold just spiked up 14 bucks a short while ago and then settled back a few dollars.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:34 AM

        My brain must be tired. I had forgotten all about the FOMC today. So that explains everything.

          FMOC……FLOCKING OF MANIC CONSUMPTION………….just another disorder for you to consider……….lol

            Feb 18, 2015 18:38 AM

            I will add that to my list of conditions that require medication, Jerry!

            :0)

            Feb 18, 2015 18:54 AM

            You too? It’s called old age Jerry! My elbows are getting arthritic this year. They really bother me sometimes when I am at the keyboard for too many hours. I might look up that voice recognition software that CFS was mentioning awhile back.

            Just what I need eh? And then my computer can rebuke me instead of people on this site!

            heck man……..rebuketion…..is great……at least they talk to you………..

            Feb 18, 2015 18:04 PM

            No, I was being serious Jerry. One day someone is going to write a program that argues with people like me. And then I will have the choice of fighting some fancy software that poses as a human or just go back to talking to myself…..just in time for the senility to set in. Not that it makes much difference. I already shout at the computer when nobody but the cats are around (and they are looking funny at me lately!)

            That might drive one to drinking………….do you think the computer would ever let you win………..I think yes, you could threaten it with computer spy ware….and tell it you would set it on the hot burner of the stove……..or feed it to the cat, for possible elimination of hair ball problems….

            Feb 18, 2015 18:43 PM

            Of course I would win sometimes Jerry. Anybody who writes a program like that would have to make it somewhat human. If it was like Big Blue for example and never lost a chess game except to the best Chessmasters of all time it would be worthless. People would not engage with a machine that could not be beaten 99.999% of the time. A really good program would have weaknesses and personality characteristics that humans might exploit to make it all interesting. Of course, knowing that was in the code from the outset we would all have to suspend our sense of reality and pretend we didn’t know it was all part of the program to act human like. For now maybe someone can just write code to make ATM’s more intelligent!

    I think the shorts just got smoked………………

      must have been the impulse leg ….Rick talks about, ….or maybe the hidden pivot……lol

        Feb 18, 2015 18:36 AM

        Whatever it was Jerry I think we just got our buy signal on gold for the bounce. So in fact, 1197 was the bottom. Matthew actually has a good chart up above that comes into play now.

          NOTHING MORE THAN MANIPULATION……….

          Feb 18, 2015 18:35 PM

          which chart specifically bird he put up three of them?
          also what is your upside target? Thanks in advance. You gave us the 1200 call to the tee, now be generous lol and give us a number to the up.

          cheers

            Feb 19, 2015 19:01 AM

            We will see soon enough if December’s 1231 is exceeded Glen. That’s what I am watching right now. That’s a mere 10 dollars distant but so far I already have the bounce off my 1200 bottom. So this is lining up nicely for me thus far.

            Feb 19, 2015 19:15 AM

            Gold is a buy in my view, in case I was not being clear.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:41 PM

          Since there seems to be confusion about what I meant in the post above, I was not implying a FINAL bottom or anything ridiculous like that. Only a tradeable bounce. You guys who know me already understand that my outlook is generally very short time frames.

          I am referring to the commentary in the last show of the day in case you are wondering.

            Feb 19, 2015 19:21 AM

            Yes Bird loud and clear 🙂

            Do you expect this bounce to at least last one week or more?

        Feb 18, 2015 18:44 AM

        HA HA ! J,,,,,,THE LONG,,,,,,OOTB ! YES a PIVOT ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RO0_enUhKjQ

    LPG
    Feb 18, 2015 18:48 AM

    Tend to agree with Richard with the sequence for gold.

    I suspect a move up from here for a few weeks, then a correction (=lower move).
    Where we will stop on the way up and then on the way down from there (assuming it occurs), I have no clue but I remain open-minded.

    As mentioned under Gary’s podcast, I made a small add yday and added today on PVG before FOMC minutes release. I also re-opened another position which I had closed earlier this year when gold was close to $1300.
    All of these adds are on a case by case basis – very selectively – with fundamentals being the reason for the add and the technicals helping me out with the timing.

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      Move up till end of next week,,,,,,,then BAMB………EXIRY WEEK……..down again.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:47 PM

      LPG; you were the one who got me to notice PVG. I’ve purchased a little and will wait later in the spring to add to my position since I believe it may move down again a little later. I love the broad band it’s trading in as relates to the monthly charts. Thanks again.

        LPG
        Feb 18, 2015 18:57 PM

        You’re welcome Richard.

        Personally, I love the asset quality and the management – both top notch IMHO.
        Due to their last raise a few weeks ago via a PP w. the chinese mining company, they have a bunch of cash in hand. Not enough to build the mine, but it’s a good start and shows investors confidence, IMHO. Lastly, at current levels, even assuming $1200 gold, it is not “expensive”, IMHO.

        I’ve added today and I’m now 1/2 size on it, and I’ve got orders lined up in the $5’s and even in the $4s. 🙂

        If the market is kind and let this beauty fall, at least 1 person will be waiting with open arms.

        Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.

        LPG

    MILES FRANKLIN….today at usawatchdog.com……….says..”.MINERS are Naked shorted and Bankrupt.”……………………..

      Feb 18, 2015 18:20 PM

      What? All of them?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:24 PM

      Every other article on that usatoday website seems to be about World War Three or complete financial meltdown happening any second now.

      Let’s be positive people.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:34 PM

        There is some good information on usawatchdog, but on a scale of 1 to 10 the doom and gloom on that site is 11.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:36 PM

          Thanks.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:54 PM

        Agree about USAWatchdog. Still like the site though. Lately it seems that most of Greg Hunter’s guests are not as much of a doomsayer as he sometimes is.

        As much as I would like to be positive I think we need to be realistic. Some bad things are on the way.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:43 PM

          I actually feel pretty optimistic about the future. How crazy is that?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:53 PM

      Andy Hoffman is best financial/market analyst I have seen. I agree with him nearly 100%. No one comes close. Even my investment hero rick rule does not match him in analysis. Good job.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:13 PM

    Doc
    Is this the bounce to $1255 or will we pull back to $1190 first?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:41 PM

      David, tough question. My gut and TA tell me we drift a little lower. The fact we got this nice little bounce could push the pricing low into next week. There’s a strong uptrend line at about 1190 and that’s why I mentioned that today. Plus we’re really late in Gary’s daily cycle. What I like about the MACD on the daily chart is the rather large separation between the 12 and 26 day MAs. What often happens is a very violent move up when you get the original move laterally by the 12 day MA. It’ll be interesting if that happens. It can really catch you by surprise.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:42 PM

        David; I also have to say that the odds are in the not distant future we’ll move back up to 1255—-I just don’t know if it happens on this coming bounce or later in the spring.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:26 PM

    A bit early, but if this bottom holds – got to give major props to the Bird on his call of 1200.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:48 PM

      Hey thanks Doc Fan! I appreciate that. We hit my bottom target almost perfectly so I am waiting for the bounce back now. It looks to me like we got the first taste of it already.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:08 PM

        Birdman we’re going lower now imo. 1180-1130

      Feb 18, 2015 18:07 PM

      Cmon bro i’ve been calling for 1200 at 1300 every since my sale when gold stocks refused to go up but gold was still going up. I sold and was calling for correction to 1220 and as low as 1200. People thought i was nuts. Well here we are hahahahah

        Feb 18, 2015 18:32 PM

        That is true Stewie. You have been calling for 1220 and 1200 since the January highs. Good to you man!

          Feb 19, 2015 19:45 AM

          Nice work Stewie.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:35 PM

    There is NOTHING LIKE age AND experience…in investing…..Richard Russell…SEL the US dollar and buy GOLD STOCKS…makes sense all the sense in the world!

      Feb 18, 2015 18:44 PM

      Marc; all I know is some of these stocks are at levels not seen in years. I’ve seen this before. I’ll purchase some of the solid companies and hold since it’s the opportunity I’ve been waiting for the last 3 years.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:02 PM

    Doc:
    Nice call on the rare earths.Yesterday I finally saw movement in my holdings of Mat.v
    Here is the address to another,talking of better days to come in 2015
    http://www.vette350.com/chinese-tighten-supply-of rare earths.
    With the venture at the level it is at now,the risk reward is awful appealing.

      Feb 18, 2015 18:45 PM

      John, the daily, weekly, and monthly charts on mat.v look very strong. I don’t know anything about this company but would love to know more.

        Feb 18, 2015 18:36 PM

        Doc:
        1st off I will say that I do not personally know the management team.
        Matamec’s flagship property is the Kipawa heavy rare earth property located in Quebec.
        Toyota Rare Earths Canada was their J/V partner spending 16 million to get the project to where it is now.
        September 19th 2014 Toyota cancelled the agreement and converted their 49% interest to a 10% NPI,thus leaving Matamec 100% ownership again.
        The stumbling block is the proximity of the deposit to Kipawa Lake and opposition from First Nations.(which is why I suspect Toyota changed their minds)
        26Jan 2015 Resources Quebec signed to a J/V with Matamec for 28% and a consideration of 3 million.
        Much like the Northern Dynasty/Agnico situation,environmental problems are a concern.
        If Matamec can iron out it’s problems with first Nations,IMHO this could be a good one.If not it probably will go nowhere.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:50 PM

          Good points on Matamec John K. I should have included them in the group of quality rare earth companies to consider in my posts at the top of this blog. I think this is one of the few that will make it, if they can pass all the permitting and First Nations concerns.

          Feb 18, 2015 18:54 PM

          Thanks for the info.

      LPG
      Feb 18, 2015 18:30 PM

      Thanks for this chart Matthew. Very sexy, IMHO.

      The “interesting” part is when looking at the US listing, the angle of the line connecting the recent lows is not as steep – curtesy of USDCAD strength over the past few months. Obviously, pattern is the same though.

      Will likely take a shot at it personally from a trading angle esp. if we get a w/o.

      Cheers and best to you,

      LPG

    Feb 18, 2015 18:20 PM

    WELL, I SEE THE RIGGING BOYS WERE HARD AT IT TODAY, they got gold down below $1200……………” STILL CLOWNING with the underground, when I come around “…….WHAT DO WE HAVE HERE !!!! ARE WE NOW getting a BOUNCE BACK…….AND LOOK at that BALTIC DRY INDEX…………..DOWN AND DOWN……DOWN WE GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Feb 18, 2015 18:28 PM

    MARKET ALERT!!!
    Huge volumes on GLD bought at FOMC Minutes. Maybe the botton is in.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:42 PM

    I haven’t looked at this chart in weeks… the reversal came at an interesting place:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPTGD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p83343429129&a=374056948

    Feb 18, 2015 18:16 PM

    The conventional markets have my interest currently – now that we have popped 2100 on the S&P I am wondering whether there is enough energy to push higher or whether we are about to drop down a 100 or even 200 points before another push to new highs?

    I think that we would then possibly see an inverse – conventional markets going down and metal miners going up.

    bb
    Feb 18, 2015 18:25 PM

    RT just reported intercepted messages from isis.
    Guess isis is planning to invade Italy from Lybia.

    Think I will cancel my vacation to Rome.

    Feb 18, 2015 18:50 PM

    OK Doc, this is a shorter term bottom in gold here if we get a rally. Do you think the postulated sub-1100 bottom in gold will be the long term bottom. Or do you think we are in a longer term gold bear market and there will be a long time until the long term bottom is reached, as in the 1990s?

      Feb 18, 2015 18:51 PM

      Dave, this spring will tell the tale——in a newsletter awhile back, I posited 2 scenarios (charts) according to the monthly gold chart. The first scenario was for the long term uptrend line to hold. If that holds this spring, we’ve seen the bottom. If the uptrend line does not hold, the second scenario is a slow grind lower (and I mean slow) but not significantly lower according to the monthly momentum indicators currently in place. I believe that the fall of 2016 could be the critical point at which gold finally acquires strong footing again. Of course, if a major black swan happens before then, all bets are off. That’s something even technicals can’t control.