Will investors wake up to the gold market or will it be forgotten forever?
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Good analysis from Gary, well balanced and probably pretty realistic.
Thanks Dave,
Gary is pretty good!
Agreed. Good interview guys. I for one was not convinced of the bounce last Friday and shorted the Jr Miners with JDS in the premarket going into Tuesday and made some cake.
When gold popped on Wednesday I missed the initial move because I was stuck in meetings at work, but didn’t buy into it because I still didn’t see real conviction. My thoughts were similar to Gary’s, when that pop happened on Wed. It was probably just some over-eager gold bugs that jumped at the first up-tick, and it will likely be a head-fake to fleece the sheeple. It turned out today on Thursday that is exactly what it was and it fell again into the close, and then even further after hours.
Gold is in limbo and there is a case to be made for a counter-trend pop up, but one could make the case for 1180 or 1187 as Rick A. called for. If there is a pop up, it is very doubtful there will be enough ummph to get past 1308 or above. Gold missed it’s opportunity to resume the bull trend at the end of Jan/first week of Feb. When it didn’t correct down all the way on the 29th and spiked on the 30th, it started the gradual descending trading range for almost a month now, instead of a quick reversal and then a continued upleg. It has sealed it’s fate to go down into the late spring/summer and bottom with the rest of the commodity complex. We are going to get a very nice window of time to accumulate, and like Doc has said, there is no rush.
If gold had high-tailed it up in the first week of February, it would have been an explosive move taking out 1323, 1347 and 1382 and resuming the bull. Now that it is the slow grind down, it is a perfect time to cherry pick the quality names from March – May when they get beat up one last time. However, there will be a short term trade for a week or so where Gold should pop to test 1244.70, 1259, and maybe 1272.85. It will turn back down again afterwards though, so stay nimble.
Here is a short snippet from an interesting article from Monday on Kitco from Mark Mead Baillie, titled “Gold Gathers Itself While the S&P Defies the Economy”. I think it is interesting that he also highlighted the strength we normally find in Februrary in Gold that just hasn’t been there, and some of the resistance levels we have discussed the last few weeks:
from the article:
“Many are wooed “Be mine!” ’round the Feast of St. Valentine … ‘cept if yer Gold. February being a month wherein the yellow metal throughout most of the millennium has been a proven positive performer, (over the last 14 years averaging a Lovers’ Month net gain of 1.4%, including those bettering 3% in ’02, ’05, ’08, ’10, ’11 and ’14), instead has found this year’s Cupid to have come up stupid.
To be sure, as thoroughly documented in the last three weekly missives, Gold truly had “gotten ahead of itself” vis-à-vis the near-term valuation relative to BEGOS (Bond / Euro / Gold / Oil / S&P). Now, (finally), Gold has completed its rather ill-romantically-timed requirement of reversing back to this particular measure of valuation. As we below see, price settled yesterday (Friday) at 1228 and the oscillator (price less the smooth valuation line) at the graphic’s foot has returned to zero after having been excessively high (+136 points) those few weeks back:
Still, if there remains any good news for February, ’tis but half over and thus there’s the chance to recover. Also good is Gold’s having dug in its heels to essentially gather itself together, rather than doing what in recent years had oft become ongoing week-over-week slides, this time instead posting just the barest of skids for these last five days, and therefore keeping the parabolic Long trend (ascending blue dots beneath price) intact. What we’d really like to now see, given that Gold is again re-aligned with its BEGOS valuation as just described, is a push back up into the 1240-1280 resistance zone as bordered by the purple lines in this next chart of Gold’s weekly bars…..”
LIKE I TOLD YOU GUYS YESTERDAY, NOT TO GET EXCITED about the price rise in GOLD…………THE RIGGING BOYS WOULD BE BUSY, and they ARE………….THESE GUYS are beyond CRIMINAL, and the BALTIC DRY INDEX continues to FALL, now at 509 POINTS……….LOOK how QUICKLY we fell through the 5 HANDLE on the BDI……….A FALL INTO THE 4 HANDEL will signal that the WEST COAST DOCK STRIKE is beginning to have an EFFECT on the INDEX, it will continue to FALL………….the END GAME IS HERE FOLKS…………..this is ALL THE RIGGING BOYS have LEFT !!!!!!!!!!!!!
I asked you last week , if the DOCK STRIKE had any effect……….your answer was NO.,,,
NOW, have you changed your mind?….by reading the above it would appear so….thank j
AT THAT TIME WE WERE ABOUT to go into the 5 HANDEL from a 6 HANDEL on the BDI, and WITH THAT MOVE we are DROPPING SHARPER THAN EVER BEFORE……………A 4 HANDEL would DEFINITELY have to include the beginning EFFECTS and would have to include the WEST COAST DOCK STRIKE as well…………..THIS THING is NOW MOVING AT LIGHT SPEED, so if that were to happen, you have to include that STRIKE…………..it would at that point only become LOGICAL.
I thought it was logical…….when I asked it……………OOTB…….out of the box thinking stay on your toes……………nimble and quick…..better to be early than late.
thanks …………………………………j…………..
Nimble and quick is definitely the best defense now!
It has to J. Import/Exports equate to 3% of US GDP.
I was referring to the BDI………..and the docker’s strike on the west coast,before it became headlines………………
So was I – there’s an obvious correlation between the longshoremen strike and the falling BDI!
EXACTLY…………I agree………and that was my original question to Mark…Thanks A….great minds think alike………………
KWN…..has a great article concerning PAST DOCKER’S STIKES and a STOCK MARKET CRASH after such events………………………
stike to STRIKES……..
Interesting chart re strikes and falling stock market.
http://kingworldnews.com/shocking-illustration-major-port-disputes-signal-collapse-near/
that is the one I was referring to……….as I said, great minds think alike……..lol j
And an interesting correlation between stock market declines and recessions too. About that BDI though….if cargo is tied up and ships are all full waiting in port then it stands to reason a shortage of capacity will eventually drive the BDI back up.
But of course J!
“Will investors wake up to the gold market or will it be forgotten forever?”
Such concern/uncertainty is a bullish contrary indicator. I think it’s emotional investors that are overly scared here.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=5&mn=2&dy=0&id=p31270574764&a=389600417
Spot on Matthew.
Well MAtthew here is another one:
gold still above all of its 2014 action if priced in Euros, still higher than any price from early September 2013 to end of 2014. Maybe that’s bullish, but I’m not sure!
Thanks, it looks bullish to me. Priced in yen, gold is even further along. It bottomed in June 2013 vs yen and December ’13 vs euros.
So there you go. Dollar drops, which it will, and gold bugs are back in the game!
Never will be forgotten forever!
Simply will not happen.
How are you doing, Matthew? I have not been here for awhile. I thought that at the age of 71 I would not be “working” 7 – 8 hours per day!
I’m doing well, Al, thanks.
As long as you’re enjoying your work, and I think you are, then count yourself lucky to get 7-8 hours of fun per day! 🙂
I am very lucky to have Cory, Doc, Gary, Chris, Rick, all our other guests and DEFINITELY ALL OF YOU!
The conventional markets appear to have hit a plateau though? Perhaps they are just pausing for breath before rising further.
QE IS ON IT’S WAY………………….
Don’t we get a 200 point fall on the S&P first?
I THINK GOLDMAN is supporting that one…………..
Has Goldman said it will go down? Probably will go up then.
No, I do not listen to Goldman…..but, they are the biggest on the S&P, KING ON THE MOUNTAIN
Don’t worry Gary, the East is not as emotional as your stupid gold bugs. Your gold bars in Fort Knox is flowing to the China and India in a big way. Your people may be too late when they wake up.
Look at how Chinese buy gold.
http://news.longhoo.net/nj/njxw/content/2015-01/24/content_11438691.htm
The gold which should belong to you is sold cheap and gone forever.
Ha Ha! Funny Lawrence. Are the Chinese mocking us now? Are you the spokesman?
Ha ha, if I am the spokesman, I will say the opposite. They definitely prefer to buy it cheap. I think they are thankful to US. Hi, Canada has no gold. We can only watch or buy.
The joke will be on China if Yamashita’s gold exists. Heck Harry Dent would be proven correct with his $300 prediction.
Bird, you have any ideas today about gold and oil?
Hmmm… It is nice to get that gold too. Where is it?
My gold fish has more brain than Harry dent.
ditto..Lawrence……
I think we can go up and challenge 1231 but today is just a little consolidation and holding pattern.
Thx Bird, thought I would attempt to catch a bounce.
Marshall Swing says he thinks Yamashita gold exists, he just mentions it on Silver Doc.
He seems to agree with M Armstrong as well, course Mr Armstrong figured dow at 32000 in 2015. Maybe I guess.
Im listening to an old radio broadcast by Sterling Seagrave, he has a guest that wrote a book on the gold. He is asking the same questions as Hudas, no need for this financial collapse.
Guess Hudas is not the only person that thinks it exists.
Has anyone checked out poe? oil, expecting drill results in a couple weeks, 80 million in the bank.
Looks interesting to me, if it was gold I would understand it better but I know squat about oil.
The thing is that the American people are unlikely to punish their bankers and politicians for their crimes. After all who who is going to bring the evil doers to justice while Sally soccer mom and Joe six pack are watching the boob tube and getting their entertainment fix? The Chinese and Russians? The Sheriffs? Ripped off investors? John Hagee? The politically correct gangsters will skate on this one and will be back to business as usual soon enough.
Be interesting to see what you think about segments 7 and 8 in the upcoming Weekend Show.
Lawrence ,,,it is well past the time to wake up……….johnnie walker six pack has already been about 10 years to late………………….
I have been for an awful long time Lawrence.
Best to you.
I posted this yesterday..
Doc Fan,
Sorry for the late reply as I have plenty on my plate currently. Today we had a bounce of that 1198 region. Although it was not the pop that I was expecting, it has had some follow through into the midnight hours. Personally im not sure of what to think of with this weak pop. Im invested 1/4th a position but frankly 1187 keeps screaming at me. With options expiry on the 24th, I would have thought and remain keen on another smack down tomorrow and Friday. I could be very wrong and I will see what the morning brings.
good luck to all.
How would 1187 convert to GLD?
About 114.14
Thanks… I have strong support at 114.61
That would be 1192 or so…
BDC matt pretty much answered the question 🙂
sorry for late response.
Gary,
Valid points today. Im buying into this breakdown today. Should complete 2/4th today of trading positions.
Bought back too many xop yesterday and more today to average down and got with a small profit from a big potential loss. I took a large gain on Tuesday.
Interesting thought about young people not being interested in gold.
Yet a third of the metal in their mobile phones are rare earth metals.
Greece give Europe an ultimatum.
My hat off to Greeks, they are much tougher than the begger on my street corner. The other day, he picked up one loonie I dropped on the ground and said “thank you”. I felt bad I did not picked it up and handed to him. If I see him again, I will give him another one.
gold is ready to head higher…………….
armchair elbow indicator tells me so………………..
Things will drag longer than people think and finish before they realize it is the end.
I agree…………we are now into year 4 in gold smashing…….and 8 yrs of zirp……..
J. US will have a lot of advantage due to its reserve currency status. She can go much further than people predict. However, when the tide changes, it will be a tsunami which will send her to the deep sea of default and currency flow reversal. Most other places will get a second chance.
the tide is changing today…………….Here is one for you ……FOOD STAMPS are to be cut, anyone on food stamps for more than three months, the ride is over…..no more FREE FOOD.
IF THEY STOP FOOD STAMPS…………….GRAB YOUR GUN.
I AM going to rent some of my finer pieces out to the rich in the MCMANIONS….
rent the guns out,,,,,but, the bullets will be a lot more expensive……..
Off course, hungrey people are worse than lions. Machine gun is the best hedge for crisis. I just pick up archery as a hobby. Hope Canada has enough food.
I have lots of friends farming near Calgary Lawrence. Some family too. Let me know if you are short grub and I will have someone drop off a sack of grain for you 🙂
Bird……do any of them us MONSANTO SEEDS…………….
use not us………..
Great comments down below or maybe up above as I don’t know where this will show up.
What is this about food stamps. I have not heard that.
Regarding guns, unfortunately I have to agree and I am very sad to say this!
Comment on FOOD STAMPS……today on early morning news in Indiana , it was reported the current system of free food forever, is ending. The voucher will only be for three months, and the persons must be in a job training course, school, etc. No more stay at home and collect forever…………………..
About time. It’s a national embarrassment.
I think that is only temporary, bb.
Don’t beat yourself up Lawrence. You did help him out and that is more than most folks would do.
*** RIGGING BOYS PLEASE NOTE *** BECAUSE I KNOW THAT YOU ARE READING THIS……..PUTTING YOUR FINGERS on the RED BUTTION and knocking down the GOLD PRICE at this POINT is now a TOTAL WASTE OF TIME ” RESISTANCE IS FUTILE “………the BALTIC DRY INDEX EXPOSES IT ALL……………WHEN WE SEE A 3, 2, AND 1 HANDLE ON THE BDI, WHAT WILL YOU SAY AND DO THEN………………FACE IT…………IT’S OVER !!!!!!!
No Mark, Its not over till the gold bugs cry and the fat lady sings Uncle!
………….PEOPLE……..this whole thing is DEFINITELY OVER by the END of 2015 !!!!!
Mark…same was said for the end of 2014…..don’t count on it ending any time soon….10 years maybe…regards…
Gary,
Your interpretation of the markets is stellar!
Pretty hilarious when he said the banks were picking the pockets of gold bugs. I burst out laughing at that comment. Maybe some truth to it but by now its just small change as almost nobody is left to donate blood anymore.
OIL:GOLD hits Fibonacci fan resistance:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC:$GOLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27753756765&a=370578729&listNum=1
Matthew,
Interesting chart. Those indicators almost look as if it’s about to go up. I think it’s a head fake and both gold and oil are about to take the plunge.
There are a lot of unaware people out there saying nothing could take gold down. And that simply is not true. It could get real interest soon.
Remember, there’s no currency in the oil-gold chart. If there’s a plunge on that chart, oil is falling vs gold.
Do you see anything bearish on the weekly chart for gold, PHYS above, for instance? Or here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=22&id=p83075275279&a=388735420
Matthew,
The only thing that looks remotely bearish in that chart is the MACD.
I use RSI, MACD, TRIX, and slow stochastic.
If you draw the line from the bottom of 1130 candle to the bottom now, and also draw the line from the top of the 1130 candle to the last top. You will see a bearish expanding wedge. Ready for a possible break down.
Charster that’s because both will be going down together soon.
So the oil-gold ratio will stay the same? Not likely, but I know what you’re saying.
Gold looks like it is getting ready to continue its outperformance of oil.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p00360350090&a=378337402&listNum=1
I agree
Let it be forgotten!… At least stop dumping PM and I’m already happy!
There is some really weird ‘zero hedge’ type thinking on here – are you all turning into redneck, gun holding, right of the tea party republicans who believe everything that Putin tells you? Now, that IS weird! LOL!
🙂
LOOK UP the term redneck……and see where it originated…….
If you are living in UK…you have no guns, wonder why the queen has all the gold..
And forget the REPUBLICAN PARTY……..they are one PART OF THE TWO HEADED SNAKE
Think out of the box, before they put you in the box…………………lol………..j
Guns are good but…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uh7l8dx-h8M
better watchout or Al will put you in the same class room as franky……….lol
must be a slow day….otherwise you would not have all this extra time to surf…lol
Franky remains active. And, that is okay with me.
How are you doing Jerry?
Great OWL……..thanks for asking, and hope you are doing fine as well…..
Pretty good. Actually great. Got a great action plan for Lent! And I am not giving up anything except unhappiness!
that is a re lent less subject…………
I have to respectfully disagree re: “zero hedge” type of thinking.
I Ditto that J Long……
Since options expiry is coming up expect a gold to get murked soon. Since we’re at low 1200 it should go down to test bottoms again?! We’re going lower guys. 1080-1130
Stewie you dont go down that far without a meaningful bounce. You might be waiting awhile.
Agree. we just saw a 109 dollar decline. The bounce was in the cards and probably not over yet.
You will not see significant bounce based on price again i’m seeing now along with 3 attacks this week by cartel. That should tell you lower prices are ahead not higher. But soon enough we’ll know.
The longer term chart is still in decline, but over brief periods we will indeed see bounces from time to time. Yesterday and today are examples of that. We need to define our time periods to be clear what we are talking about. I do not think the final lows have yet been seen (but I think you agree with that sentiment).
I concur with Gary. The operators painted the gold hammer in yesterday’s close to lure in the teck specs. Gunning price to 1222.9 in the overnight to rape the weak hedge short algos and carpet bombing price back down as the new longs puked…….laughing their asses off to the register.
Matt what price do you come up with on gdxj with 1187 print
thanks..
Also something note worthy to everyone, most pops in gold have happened on fridays/tuesdays! Today could be a calm day of conformation of yesterdays low and fed release. Tomorrow or tonight we can have the pop in gold. Not saying it will happen but odds are favourable both ways lol.
LPG what are your thoughts today?
I would say 25 to 24.80, worst case.
thanks
If were going lower i would like to see a close below 1198. Odds are they won’t make it easy.
Oil looks like it’s about to fall apart
Gold looks like it’s about to fall apart
The dollar looks like it’s about to fall apart
( in my best Elmer Fudd ) sumtin kinda sqwewy goin on awound heyah..
Looking black swan’ish
OH YEAH………………something is VERY SQWEWY……….and WE KNOW WHAT IT IS…………………END GAME is NEAR……………..RIGHT BOYS !!!!!
And what do you think those swans could be, Chartster?
Oh…repatriation of gold and asset based currency. That type of thing.
Maybe we see some news of Russia revaluing their currency and some interesting Germany and Greece news.
Who knows how the spin doctors will spin what is going to happen.
Again Chartster, I cannot disagree!
Could not agree more!
The Endgame is always near. Everybody always thinks that. It was like that in 1980 but then there was a 19 year bear market ingold and silver afterwards:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/essay-on-gold-comparing-current.html
The resistance in gold is 1223/24 just like at the end of 2009.
You may have to wait until 2017-2024 for a new gold bull market … or even later.
I highly doubt that Dave. Maybe not to the moon now, but late this year early next should start the to the moon story.
And the washout has to happen first anyway.
Could be now….
For some reason my comment to Al is “awaiting moderation.”
?
Not sure why, I will check that out right now and change it. Sorry
I TOLD YOU……you and franky are in moderation mode…………….he,he, just joking
🙁 🙂
Not a chance!
Whew! 😮
All is well in the world again : – )
your in the dog house haha…
Gold seems to always go down between 8am and noon! Day in day out…Manipulation!
OFF TOPIC….but….
Perth Mint & the Crime Commission sign an information deal.
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/crime-agency-seeks-gold-documents/story-e6frfku9-1227231456081
Here is something fun just for a change of pace. Al and the gang might really enjoy this.
The worlds first website was launched 24 years ago on August 6th of 1991. Since then the internet has exploded in size and today there are more than 1.2 billion sites listed although it is believed only 25% of them are actually active. The other 75% are just parked names waiting to be activated or being held for sale to others.
More than 43% of all websites were hosted in the US according to a 2013 report.
Now here is the interesting part. This website at Kereport.com ranks as number 106,000 according to Alexa’s daily count meaning it is in the top percent of all websites in use today.
Put another way, of the 516 million web sites in the US or from the 129 million that are actually in active use, this site comes out in the smallest fraction of the top 1% in terms of popularity and daily use.
So pat yourselves on the back guys. That’s not bad at all. The most recent figures show 34,000 page views a day so I guess that tells us there is still a lot of interest in gold and resources in this country.
You have got to wonder how the stats would look if the price of gold actually went up for a change!
Interesting , Thanks Birdman!!
Cheers Ann! Good to see you are still here.
Just by way of comparison though (and don’t be too annoyed Al if they beat you) but here are the US rankings of a few other popular sites many here like to browse each day:
Kereport.com 106,030
Kingworldnews.com 10,378
Zerohedge.com 1,095
321gold.com 40,375
Rickackerman.com 193,263
Usawatchdog.com 43,969
Financialsense.com 52,215
Financialsurvival.com 164,556
Silverdoctors 22,736
Get back to work Al (and Cory)…..all that golf and red wine is costing you valuable internet traffic!
Numbers are up…from all that good preaching we have been doing…………
So much for the next step >1300’s some where going on about just a little while back.
Thats some funny sh$t.
WAKE UP PEOPLE. ALL GOLD IS FOOL’S GOLD.
MORON THAT SUBJECT ………LATER……..
I’m not sure we can use the word “market” wherever Goldman Sachs and GP Morgan have their tentacles–certainly no such thing as a “market” on Wall Street or the CME, much less London or European exchanges. It’s just trading algorithms on steroids (Fed speak and magic money)
They are nothing more than washing machines or dirty money and a stage for virtual realities of every sort.
Surely a crash landing inevitable by some black swan somewhere.
Grexit still in the balance; Russia still unclear as to where it goes with Ukraine.
Chinese New year etc, etc.