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An interesting idea from Gary

Big Al
February 20, 2015

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81 Comments
    Feb 20, 2015 20:10 AM

    I agree with Gary about the miners. I firmly believe that they will not make new lows even if gold does (which I also doubt). Same goes for silver; I think its low is in place.

    CRJ looks great and should take out the 600 day EMA soon.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRJ.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p23024201519&a=390636292

      Feb 20, 2015 20:43 AM

      Matthew, I agree that the miners have held up well, and shown real strength in the falling gold prices. It will really depend on how severe the spring/summer correction down in gold is (Mar-May).

      Cory – I think more than just the declining fuel price (which is helpful to the miners) is the exchange rate benefits for Canadian, Australian, and Asian miners. Many of them are reporting positive exchange rate gains on their Q4 and year end reporting. This is a huge plus for miners in markets that have had currency devaluation due to the rate cuts, and in contrast to the strong dollar.

      It is the currency exchange rates that are providing such strength to the miners, and those miners are selling gold in other currencies where gold has actually risen in value nicely in 2014. People keep viewing this all through the lens of gold priced in US dollars and that a is a fallacy.

      Many miners sell their gold/silver/base metal credits in a different currency environment and gold price, and falling global currencies and strong dollar are helping them get better margins and earnings. This is why the miners have been so strong.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:17 AM

        Shad, in the years 2001 to 2011, only two tops for the HUI came in March (’04 and ’05 and one of them happened during the last week of that month). In 2001, the top happened near the end of May; in ’02, at the beginning of June; in ’03, mid June; ’06 early May; ’07, mid April; ’08, mid May; ’09, early June; ’10, early May; ’11, mid April; ’12 end of Feb; ’13, crash; and ’14, first third of March.

        In 2003, ’04, ’05 and ’10, there were no “summer doldrums” to speak of.

        In addition (and as you know), gold recently peaked at 29 barrels of oil. If oil had stayed at $100, gold would have had to rise to $2,900/oz in order to reach the same oil value.
        That puts the significance of the ratio into perspective.

        So there’s plenty of room for the miners to go higher from here as well as to decouple from the POG to some extent.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:59 PM

          I would agree with idea that miners have a way to go from here and did some shopping for miners at the end of last year with that in mind. Yes, there is definitely a probability that the miners in gold and silver may decouple from the underlying spot price for Gold and Silver. Both valid points Matthew, and I concur.

          As for the mid-term outlook, I think we’ll put in a short term bottom soon, and it is possible that we just did at 1198, but that still remains to be seen. Regardless, when gold does pop, I would like to see a close above the 1228-1232 resistance zone first. Then 1244.70, $1259 (could be turning point), $1272.85 (likely top side of the peak).

          I don’t expect this pop up to be very long – 1 or 2 weeks. Then I expect the low in gold to be in spring/summer and I threw out the (March-May) zone as when particular miners may bottom (and this still may be above the November lows). I expect Gold and Silver to take a while to bottom and then finally start heading up.

          As mentioned above, I believe the miners will lead the metals up and make their move first, and I agree that they will decouple from the underlying commodities in the near future, which will be a good thing. Based on the figures you posted where the HUI peaked mainly in May and June, then that seems right on target.

          If gold is going to take longer to bottom into April/May, then is is possible that the miners will start up before that and very well could have their highs spike up into June when the metal turn up with them. My bets for this year would be that Sept/October would be Golds time to likely top an an intermediate rally. (likely above 1400 by year’s end)

      Feb 20, 2015 20:42 AM

      Hey Matthew, isn’t that what we have been saying since last Dec. when the oil market started to crash. The miners is the place to be with the powerful fundamental of lower energy costs for the miners. THIS proves our case that the sidelines was not the place to be BIG AL. Thank you very much 🙂

      Peter

        Feb 20, 2015 20:15 AM

        +1 😮

          Feb 20, 2015 20:39 PM

          I have to add a plus 1 because ive been very keen on lower oil prices for the longest time. Matt knows that for the duration that ive been here ive harped about the stars aligning. What do I mean? I’ve said from day one almost 13 months or so that once oil got to 40’s to go in metals. What is that saying matt when you profess something and instead of acting on it, you let it get the best of you. Well for me im still fighting myself which I shouldn’t because discipline should win. It is the precise reason why I overloaded the boat at 1.66 on img.to when it hit the 1.62 bottom. folks matt may end up being right or bird may get his lower low. The common denominator that lpg and doc keep stressing on here is keep averaging in and when a low presents itself, load her up providing its a stable company with cash reserves and good management team.

          Odds are you win in the end.

          cheers

          glen

    Feb 20, 2015 20:11 AM

    I see an important decision point coming imminently in the gold market between a big breakdown in price versus the resumption of the recent January 2015 rally.
    This decision point is coming in the next 3-4 trading days at a very maximum; in fact it could be reached already – the decision is being made as I write on Friday afternoon UK time.
    Support is at almost exactly $1200.
    The decision is being made right now!
    http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/importtant-gold-trend-decision-point.html

      Feb 20, 2015 20:32 AM

      Which way? (this is a test by the way!)

    Feb 20, 2015 20:13 AM

    Hi Gary,

    the timelines your are looking at would indicate quite a stretched IC.
    Would you be open to a cycle low in April and then a second IC bottoming in late summer (Aug / Sept)?

    Cheers

    LPG
    Feb 20, 2015 20:22 AM

    ASSUMING (A-S-S-U-M-I-N-G) …
    gold makes a final multi-year low this year… then I would suspect that
    1) that the miners would bottom much before gold does
    and
    2) I would also suspect as a consequence that maybe the levels some PM stocks hit on Nov/Dec last year might not be broken on the downside.
    That’s why, as an example and fwiw, the stink bids I have on PVG in the $4s are ABOVE the lows the stock made at the end of last year.

    My 2cts.

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      LPG
      Feb 20, 2015 20:29 AM

      And I will make ONE CAVEAT to what I wrote just above…
      It is that this is assuming we don’t have a big “market dislocation” similar to 2008.
      Otherwise, I would suspect that all bets are off.

      Hope that’s clear.

      Best to all,

      LPG

      Feb 20, 2015 20:30 AM

      I too am wondering whether the lows in miners that we saw at the end of last year will be repeated again. In fact, I am wondering whether we will get to those lows again let alone break them.

      There is rising tension between the West and Russia. I think it will get worse before it gets better.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:31 AM

      I tend to agree LPG. The miners have been more resilient and have been wanting to move up, even while gold has been under pressure. It is likely they’ll lead the metal higher when/if things bottom later this spring/summer. (March-June)

      Some of the quality miners may hold the Nov lows, but it depends on how far down Gold/Silver fall for the last correction. If sentiment is going to get washed out, they may need to break those November lows for the bloodbath phase.

        LPG
        Feb 20, 2015 20:39 AM

        Shad,

        You might be right.

        My comment comes from the typical behavior of asset classes .
        TYPICALLY, the equities top and bottom before the commodities they relate to do – if I’m not mistaken.
        In the metals, most PM stocks toped for ex. way before gold’s Sept 2011 top – many toped in Q1/Q2 2011 for ex.
        That’s why I would expect that if gold makes a multi-year low this year, most equities might already have bottomed at the end of last year. Obviously, it’s a case by case basis… but I would expect this to be the case for those who will survive.

        And I would also reiterate that in case of market dislocations similar to 2008, then all bets are off, IMHO.

        Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.

        LPG

          Feb 20, 2015 20:50 AM

          Oh, I completely agree that the miners will probably lead the metals higher, but, if Gold/Silver fall down to new lows, then the sentiment can turn more quickly in the equities on the way down, just like they can turn up quicker and in a larger percentage on the way up. I am just concerned about the velocity and depth of the down-plunge, which could effect the sentiment.

          As noted above in this thread, most of the miners are benefiting from a positive exchange rate since their local Canadian, Australian, Asian, and South American currencies have fallen against the dollar. In addition, Gold in other currencies went up rather nicely against these falling currencies, so they are getting a double whammy that really helps their margins and profit.

          Exchange rates against stronger dollar help, and gold/silver/base metal credits having stronger values in their currency may stave off the severity of the bloodbath and be an ace in the hole of miners.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:56 AM

            That’s right. And if the dollar now begins a period of descent as I expect then the gains in so many currencies we are seeing now will evaporate. Keep that in mind. Gold is rising in most currencies ONLY because the dollar was soaring and NOT because gold was doing particularly well.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:27 AM

            Re: “Gold is rising in most currencies ONLY because the dollar was soaring and NOT because gold was doing particularly well.”

            I disagree. Gold rose for some of the same reasons as the dollar, not BECAUSE the dollar was rising.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:33 AM

            Really? Give me an example. I say you are wrong.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:15 PM

            I do think that in certain areas like Asia and S. America, and recently in Europe that people converted their currency for gold as store of value in case things get more extreme. Those are some of the same reasons that people flocked to the dollar as a safe haven. Gold in dollar terms isn’t getting as much safe haven play, because according to main-stream media “Everything is just fine with the US economy”.

            If the dollar does start one last leg up into Spring/summer, then Gold may follow it for a while and move in tandem, but then eventually the 2 should diverge and move in counter directions. That will be when the dollar tops and the commodities bottom in Mar-May.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:38 PM

            Russia is a good case of what you are saying. But it was not gold moving up at all…..it was the Ruble that was being slaughtered from a wide variety of sources and created the appearance of higher gold.

            Feb 21, 2015 21:04 PM

            I agree Birdman, but if we stick with the Russian Ruble as an example, when the currency gets creamed, it takes more units of it to buy everything (including gold) so therefore the “value” of gold in that currency is now more. That is true of all asset classes (real estate, cement, coffee, you name it).

            Currency devaluation leads to price inflation by default. So it is like the currency (Ruble) is one elevator, and for the interest of this forum, Gold is the other elevator. When the Ruble elevator goes down, it pulls the Gold elevator up. This is why sitting in a cash position during currency devaluation is suicide, and storing in a hard asset like gold preserves the buying power you once had when the Ruble would purchase more.

            This would already be happening to the dollar due to the huge debt of the USA and the money printing, if it wasn’t getting the global bid as safe haven and if the American economy wasn’t seen as so “strong” in the mainstream media. When it does finally start to happen, Gold’s elevator will go up, when the dollar elevator goes down. To get a cup of coffee will take more dollars as well, but you can sell the gold for a larger stack of dollars and still get that cup of coffee.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:33 AM

      Wow, LPG, do you really think PVG will see $4 and change? Aside from a company-specific black swan, I just don’t see it technically. I think it’s more likely to see its P&F price objective of $14.25 first.
      I do not own it, btw.

      Cheers & GL

      M

        LPG
        Feb 20, 2015 20:52 AM

        Matthew,

        Re: PVG, I have orders ready in the $5s and in the $4s.

        My lowest order is ABOVE the lows made last year.
        Do I think it will go there, in the $4s ? I don’t know.
        But with re: to my $ allocation to this stock, I keep firepower so that IF it does, then I have capital allocated for it (ie I’m not all-in in $ terms above $5).

        As often, I try to think about the “what if” and be prepared for it. I think this stock will do very well in the next few years – assuming it’s not acquired before that – but if Mr. Market gives me a chance to add more at below $5, I wanna have $ already allocated for it and seize that opportunity.

        Hope that’s clear.

        Best to you, and hope all’s well.

        LPG

          Feb 20, 2015 20:21 AM

          I see, very clear. It’s definitely wise to keep cash available for moves into your surprise zone.
          Thanks & Best

      Feb 20, 2015 20:05 AM

      Not undo able based on normal cycle durations.

      ASS U MING….new China town where everyone hangs out……

    Feb 20, 2015 20:23 AM

    Gary do you expect miners to go down when gold makes final low or do you expect them to hold where they are at now. I understand you said you don’t expect new lows for miners but that may go down with trend but not break their new lows?
    Your interpretation of the miners trend?

    Feb 20, 2015 20:28 AM

    I would have thought that the conventional markets are really waiting to hear what is happening with Greece and the EU – if there is a ‘fix’ to keep Greece in the Euro then the markets will surge. If it looks like the Greeks are leaving, or being chucked out, of the Euro then the markets will tank IMPO.

    Either way Gary’s coiled spring will prove correction – it just depends on which of the above we get in the coming days. At the moment it is a coin toss.

    Gold, on the other hand, seems to be looking towards Putin and the Ukraine. Lots of talk here in Europe about a new Cold War with Russia. I am beginning to think that a position in the miners is a good position to have this year as I think worse is yet to come between the West and Russia.

    British Army officers tend to understate things, especially generals, so I was surprised to see this headline in The Telegraph today:

    ‘Russian tensions could escalate into all-out war, says Nato general’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11425393/Russian-tensions-could-escalate-into-all-out-war-says-Gen-Adrian-Bradshaw.html

      BDC
      Feb 20, 2015 20:44 AM

      The ‘cold war’ attack on Russia has been ongoing
      for over a decade via surrogate warfare in South
      Ossetia (with Abkhazia), Chechnya, and Ukraine.

      Note the 2004 ‘color’ revolution which was based
      in Kiev. It’s one very simple, yet effective, tactic
      used to avoid all-out nuclear war, and is a prime
      component of 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare).

      Based upon the internet and social media, ‘color’
      revolutions are cheap and can be organized from
      near or far. One necessity is brainwashed people
      who can be easily manipulated. The young often
      fit this profile. Note the “Otpor!” psyop that was
      used to further destabilze the Balkins back then.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:46 PM

        bdc,

        can you be kind enough to give us your update on dollar? you are seriously king dollar on here and have it well tuned.

        My question to you would be are we close to a top and do we double top at these current high or break through?

        thanks

      Feb 20, 2015 20:08 AM

      Stevie,
      They will go down but they may be able to hold above the Nov. Lows.

        Feb 21, 2015 21:06 PM

        I tend to agree Gary.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:42 AM

    The markets are just following the price of oil. I am just trading oil as it seems to be the easiest way to make money and I have had large gains since I started on it this month.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:47 AM

    Israel is being abandoned by Washington as well. Russia is now
    surrounded by allied forces.

    Talk of Israel bombing Iran.

    All the evidence is in….BAD NEWS….leading to world war 3.

    Everything is fine…. keep your blinders on…

    NATO is going to keep us all safe.

    Sleep well.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:57 AM

    I agree that the miners are resilient. But that’s more due to the one last pop that will suck the goldbugs into buying before devastating them with the fall through the summer.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:03 AM

      Sounds good to me Wiseguy!

      Feb 20, 2015 20:28 AM

      Bingo!!!!! I agree!!!!
      I think Gary is right about final lower low. I have changd the tune right after gold could not make higher high and topped. Now it’s on it’s way to lower low which hopefully will be last one. Miners are being stupid as they act like gold has made higher high which it has not. As soon as majority of those holders in miners realize they were wrong BLOODBATH phase in miners will unravel and we will have our bottom. It’s possible miners hold their lows with gold making lower final low but that will be seen. I agree with Shad when sentiment changes it will be bloodbath in miners. I’m not a bear. I just noticed gold made lower high and miners were being stupid. Not gonna buy into this after big rally like that. Chances after rally like that lower prices are ahead not higher. Just due to rally topping. Common sense seen before many times. Especially if gold made lower high. My 2 cents.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:42 PM

        Stewie, metal must have a final low, even a 3 digit number. But there is a chance miners have a low of 0 and delisted.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:39 PM

      I don’t have faith in miners. They are losing money like bleeding pigs. Even the big ones are using $1200-1300 and $22 as gold and silver base price for forecast. Small ones might use $2000. They leave no margin for error. They are desperate. I love to see them go away. Most of them are nonsense. If even GoldCorp has lost $2.2 billion last year, what about the rest?

    Feb 20, 2015 20:53 AM

    Re: “Miners are being stupid as they act like gold has made higher high which it has not.”

    Stewie! Why are you upset that the miners are acting bullishly? The market is telling you that they are too cheap versus gold at anywhere near the current levels. The sellers are fixated only on the dollar price and don’t realize that the REAL price of gold is up substantially in recent months. Q1 results are going to prove it.
    The quality plays with comfortable margins will not enjoy the same gains as the ones that were just breaking even before oil and most currencies fell vs gold.

    If a miner was making $10 per ounce last summer and is now making $150, you can imagine what that would do for its share price. Not only is that a big jump in the profit margin, but it is a huge jump in the value of the previously nearly worthless reserves.

    In addition, markets are forward-looking and can see that gold has much more room to rise from here than to fall. So big money is using all dips to get positioned.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:22 AM

      What a manipulator. You just never quit do you?

        Feb 20, 2015 20:32 AM

        What won’t quit is your towering ignorance. I think everyone here but you can think for themselves and decide if my opinions have any value to them or not. I know I don’t need you to protect me from the “manipulative” opinions and information that others provide.

        Just curious, why doesn’t your make-believe expertise and general BS artistry make YOU a manipulator?

          Feb 20, 2015 20:41 AM

          You are a relentless gold promoter. We wonder what your *real* agenda is. Meanwhile we await the breakdown of the long term trend channel that will finally expose your pathetic biased thesis that gold is still in a secular bull as being……well…..ummm….all bull.

          This is a bear market we are in, friend. A bear market……there is no bull here just as there is no life in a body where the heart has ceased to beat or a car that has no gas in the tank.

          Get it now?

            Feb 20, 2015 20:49 AM

            “We” wonder? You’re a typical collectivist with your lopsided, sheeple way of seeing things. I did not say that gold is not in a bear market.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:51 AM

            You, btw, are a relentless BS promoter. My money is where my mouth is, I suggest you put your meds where yours is.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:21 PM

            hahahah you guys are hilarious. lol. Matt i’m a bull but fundamentals at current moment do not matter at all. Prices action does. Matt is i’m levered up to the sky when i buy i can’t buy here. I did in past and always, i mean always i got murked. I will be patient and wait for oversold conditions and then go for another rally.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:53 PM

        Bird,

        cmon I think your being unfair as matt brings up valid points. gold has risen since third quarter of 2014 and wti has gone down. That should account for something.

        I gotta tell ya bird demand for the real gold bullion is high and supply is breaking down left and right. Companies are not expanding, giving up on exploration, cutting back. Many miners currently are going under. Defaults are starting and bankruptcy. This event is going to blow everyone away. Gold itself is still at a very high price. Unless you think that the us is not going to stimulate again then I would agree that gold will fall with deflation. They are getting ready to unwind a stimulus bigger then the eye can see.. If they don’t bird, we will have the great depression of 2016. No way they allow it under Obama terms.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:55 PM

          I meant u.s

          Feb 20, 2015 20:57 PM

          Glen, gold did basically the same thing starting from January 1st but then the gains evaporated and we ended where we started when the year closed. Matthew made the claim that “big money” was buying the dips and positioning without even stopping for a minute to consider that they have actually been selling gold and shares all month, not buying. The Commercials were still substantially short at the end of February compared to the past few years. I mean who else is moving the market at this time anyway if not the large players? The retail crowd was crushed long ago and took bloody losses on both metals and mines. There was a time this site was a great deal busier than it is now and had a much larger membership of devoted gold fans. So if gold is so great then where are they now? Basically all we saw since late 2014 was a technical bounce, otherwise known as a bull trap and now price has come back to earth. My contention remains that we have at least one more leg down. At this point there should be no doubt we remain solidly in the bear market that began back in 2011 and gold has a lot of proving to do before anyone can give the all-clear that the declines have ended.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:58 PM

            Should have said January 1st last year….not simply January 1st……

            Feb 21, 2015 21:41 PM

            If you think that the retail guy is responsible for the massive rise in volume from the buy side, you’re even more clueless than I thought. The masses are massive sellers at the end of a bear move, never buyers —EVER.

            There was never a time when the comment section was busier, but site visits go up and down with the gold price (this applies to all gold sites). Sheeple sure are funny to observe.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:24 AM

    Gold sitting on the ledge of the cliff right now….!!

      Feb 20, 2015 20:57 PM

      nah look for a massive pop Monday/Tuesday the latest. Take my advice and make money cause you have been bleeding red since November and that is the reality of things. Stop promoting bs.

      cheers

      the great glen 🙂

    Feb 20, 2015 20:32 AM

    If gold closes where it’s at right now , or even falls further down?

    Lookout ..below…….

    And 1130 is distant memory!

      Feb 20, 2015 20:43 AM

      Look out belowwwwww!!!!!

        bb
        Feb 20, 2015 20:02 PM

        So much for a pop to 1230 I guess.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:17 PM

          Sorry…that was day before yesterdays chance but it never panned out after reaching 1221. We are just in a 4 day sideways trading range now. What the heck can we do but watch and wait. Like Al and the guys have been saying since the beginning of the week….nothing is happening.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:59 PM

            bird you know very well where the shorts step away and cover and bulls come in heavy. We are centimeters from it.

            cheers

            Like you say,look at the chart 🙂

            Feb 21, 2015 21:00 AM

            Ha Ha…we shall see Glen. Everyday is filled with some kind of excitement lately.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:58 PM

          bb its coming.. study the charts..

    Feb 20, 2015 20:27 PM

    GOLD IS DOWN BECAUSE THE NEW GREEK GOV’T SOLD OUT………..THEY GOT PAID OFF TO HOLD ON FOR ANOTHER 4 MONTHS……………RISE UP GREEK PEOPLE, RISE UP !!!!!!

    Feb 20, 2015 20:28 PM

    Gary, now that they have kicked the can down the road re Greece I don’t think you have to worry about your 5,000 on the NASDAQ being reached.

    Perhaps 6,000 should be the figure we all begin thinking about before this year is out?

      Feb 20, 2015 20:45 PM

      Maybe. We should be heading into the parabolic phase of this bull sometime this year.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:20 PM

        If we more or less stay on the trend line we should hit your 5100 during mid month, Gary. Notice btw how the curve on the Nasdaq is sloping up a little steeper? So I think you might be right.

          Feb 21, 2015 21:14 AM

          I do mean mid March of course.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:44 PM

    An new article from Andy Hoffman – massive losses and peak production in PM.

    http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/initial-mining-earnings-essentially-confirm-peak-gold-14141

      Feb 20, 2015 20:43 PM

      I only glanced through this article but have no idea whether his ‘peak gold’ and ‘peak silver’ is referring to the prices of these metals having peaked… or whether he thinks that production has peaked.

      In such a, IMPO, unclear article I can’t be bothered reading through it in detail. It is on a metal bug site so I assume it is a price ramping article? No?

        Feb 20, 2015 20:59 PM

        It is very clear since it says the production is on decline due to the huge loss and low price of the PM. Most miners have lost money and no silver miners made any money last year I believe. They all give forecast of lower production in 2015 and 2016 except GoldCorp (Gold corp also lost 2.2 billion last year).

        Miles Franklin is not a bug site. It is a very credible financial analysts firm.

        By the way, do you see many gold bugs here? I don’t see many except a couple. Bird said they are all dead. They usually predict apocalypse.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:29 PM

          Most of them were ruined financially because they just held on until their money was gone. Now they won’t come back because the bears had them in their teeth and most could not face up to anymore declines. They said the dumbest things though. Like “buy the dips”…which they did. And also “back up the truck” which was ever popular each time we hit a new price low…….and eventually they just ran out of money and could not afford the internet connection fees anymore!!!

      great article……………..

      Feb 21, 2015 21:47 AM

      Wow, that was quite an article. One of the most negative on the sector we have seen in awhile. Andy is pretty bearish gold and silver mining and I imagine he has the inside track on that as he analyzes the company numbers for his reports. I think we sometimes get lost when watching the metals price charts and can forget that there are companies out there that are hanging by a thread.

      From Andy’s report conclusion:

      “Clearly, it’s irrefutable that for the time being, “peak gold” has arrived – and likely, “peak silver” as well. And care of the utterly dire financial condition of the mining industry – and extended lead times involved in turning deposits into mines, gold production for years to come will be unaffected by gold prices, even if they soar to the stratosphere. And as for silver, the primary miners’ situation is not materially different; with the additional risk that – as occurred in 2008 – if base metal prices continue to decline due to global economic weakness, it’s very possible that byproduct silver production will plunge precipitously – just as it did during the Great Depression. And thus, whilst “peak gold” and “peak silver” are largely ambiguous terms – as like shale oil, if the price is high enough production inevitably rises; for the foreseeable future, gold and silver have essentially ZERO chance of materially rising, and a significant chance of significantly declining”.

    Feb 20, 2015 20:07 PM

    Gary, why do you keep predicting a parabolic phase in stock? Since you assume that the powers in control is on its back, why don’t they just make it grow steadily like it has been in the last 7 years. A slow but steady growth is more sustainable. What they need to do is simple, buy when it crashes and sell when it rises too fast. At sometime, they engineer small crashes to manage expectation.
    This question does not mean that I think stock is manipulated. I am saying your assumption does not lead to your conclusion.

      Feb 20, 2015 20:20 PM

      Gary never answers my question.

        Feb 20, 2015 20:31 PM

        Don’t feel bad Lawrence. He doesn’t answer most posts.

          Feb 20, 2015 20:02 PM

          Lawrence I don’t think its personal gay is a stand out guy.

            Feb 20, 2015 20:09 PM

            im very sorry I meant gary. honest mistake.

            Feb 21, 2015 21:56 AM

            They are all pretty busy too. Even Al, Doc and Cory don’t really have too much extra time since they started the newsletter. I really don’t know how they juggle it all. Way too many balls in the air.