Rick Ackerman’s Wednesday Commentary
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Hate to break it to you Matt but GDX is going to retest it’s lows at best and at worst make a new lower low when gold hits 1080, which is now almost a sure thing.
Avi put out new article on goldseek. I’m in agreement with him and Gary of final low coming up either soon or by May. Don’t fight the trend folks. It will cost ya. My view is i don’t need my money to be anywhere now as i feel lower lows are coming up in gold and if they are not then in oil it will. I have choices to put where my money goes which is good.
I think you are sounding wise to express caution Stewie. This is a very dangerous time for gold buyers in my view.
I was cautious at 1300 lol but now i’m pretty sure gold will make lower low. There is no catalyst for it at least now to surge and we’re in downward trend of lower highs and lower lows. I will go long again at lower low. Until then I don’t give a ……. lol
Yes it is. But, that depends on a person’s reason for buying.
I agree with you Al.
Bird,
I know that you usually have a negative view about gold. I think I know the answer but could you clarify what you mean when you said “that it is very dangerous time for gold buyers in my view”. I take it that you mean for traders who may have a large position and not for someone who owns some gold as part of a diversified portfolio and/or for “insurance” i.e. protection in case of a financial crisis. Thanks.
For the speculators who go all in and leverage based on faith. I have nothing against diversification nor for gold in particular. It is a great tool to invest with if you can play it right just as long as you know that gains can often only be made by playing both sides.
Stewie,
I personally hope gold makes a lower low and stocks pullback from here.
For all among us that are long this type of assets (PM or PM stocks), I will repeat these few things one more time.
1) if you like something, cheaper = better
2) see 1)
3) cheaper = better
4) in case of any doubt about what investing is about, refer to 1), 2), 3)
5) HAVE A PLAN
6) HAVE A PLAN AFTER THE PLAN
7) Remain open-minded (try to think about various scenarios: “what if” ex: what I am wrong, what will I do if this occurs, if that occurs etc…)
8) When going through hell, keep going.
Personally, I would be VERY excited if we have a lower low on gold and some stocks pullback from where they are now. That’s me.
IN CASE some of us are already “ALL IN” in the metals, I would HIGHLY encourage to stick to them – that’s my view and as RIchard would say, it’s NOT investment advice.
Also, one shall review all of our portfolios and respective holdings. Think like you’re taking care of a tree/plant:
=> a proven strategy/practice is to keep/put chips on what look like the most solid companies (which I would characterize as)
1) cash in the bank
2) good mgt
3) great properties (assets).
Then, cut the bad branches (those companies who are likely to not make it in the next few 6-9-12 mths as the mket is UNLIKELY to finance them any more) and stick with the solid branches. EVEN IF YOU HAVE TO TAKE A LOSS, TAKE IT. PUT PRIDE IN YOUR POCKET AND MOVE ON. But don’t cut something because the position is down: just cut something because the COMPANY is not as good as others you have in your portfolio or that you’re contemplating putting fresh money in.
Best to all, and good luck to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG i agree. I invest in 3x etn so i can’t stay long when they dive or i lost all my leveraged gains. The risk on tops is greater then to be on sidelines, especially now with oil being MY backup. I’m looking into Vix also but i’m not that familiar with it yet. I will go all in again near 1080 or 1130 depending how oversold indicators look. I’m sure we all will be covering it then. lol. I can’t believe how long gold spent in this stupid bear market. Unreal. Unreal.
Stewie,
FWIW, I’ve experienced much much much worse bear markets than gold’s <50% retrace from the top. And it was a bit longer in duration than gold's current one.
So again: "when going through hell, keep going" *. 🙂
Best to you, and GL to all.
LPG
* But HAVE A PLAN – and a plan after the plan
Thanks Stewie. I have no problem with you breaking it to me but there is little indication that your scenario is likely —YET.
I’m sure of it Matt. Lower high and lower low should tell you that and lackluster price action as well. There is no catalyst which leaves banking cartel options to keep murking it slowly til their target. I’m a bull but now i’m sidelines. If i miss first swing i won’t miss oil low anyway. I only swing 3x etns. Only. I’m good like that 🙂
Lackluster price action? Weren’t you complaining about the miners’ relative strength vs gold recently?
The trend since November is up, btw, higher highs and higher lows. A larger turn has to start somewhere….
As for a catalyst, there are plenty: expensive stock market; poor economy; cheap oil; a bubbly bond market; a toppy dollar; and jitters over the SNB’s actions are a few.
If your scenario becomes likely, we’ll probably see evidence in the charts first.
Matt i guess if YOU pick November as YOUR month of being low. If you look back to other months back gold failed to make higher high above 1348 which it made lower high at 1308 and now it’s back at 1205. That’s bearish action not bullish.
Lackluster action i refer to is gold. I look at gold first then miners. Miners will cave when gold heads down, which it has been. So don’t be surprised if gold heads lower for miners to have swift move lower quick. I’ve been saying miners are acting arrogant and foolish and they will pay the price soon for this arrogance by going swiftly lower.
I don’t understand the emphasis on “YOU” and “YOUR.” I’m simply pointing out that the miners have been in an uptrend since that low. Yes, there is a bigger trend that is down (the one you’re talking about), and there is an even bigger one that is up.
If you’re right about the miners being “arrogant” that will be a great call; but what if it’s the bears who are arrogant this time?
Good call stewie. Mathew ALWAYS picks the very lows to accent against the highest highs. It is his modus operandi to imply he always gets both and then he points out the spread or percentage gain to make the maximum affect.
Nice to see others are finally noticing his agenda.
I like Matt and his charts but short term im bearish even tho i’m a bull longer term. It failed to put in higher higher.
What a confused joke of a person you are Birdman.
Oooh ….a zinger………… Potent like a 63 Volkswagen on the Autobahn.
I tend to agree with Rick with the upcoming sequences of mket moves.
A few more % points from here are likely to set-up a bull-trap, IMHO. Volumes are not picking up despite the slow grind up.
As I see it, Q1 15 res will not be grant, neither will be US GPD, neither will be unemployment.
The reason given will be weather/West Coast ports strikes/low US oil prices –> “THINGS WILL BE BETTER IN THE UPCOMING QUARTERS” is likely what we will hear.
Then it will be the interesting bit… summer time. And I don’t think this summer will be kind to markets.
1) As June comes to an end, we’ll get an idea of whether Greece is able to fulfill some of its commitments, INCL. some debt repayments for July and August.
2) Also, we’ll have Q2 earnings season kicking in on the 1st week of July (and if they are poor again, it will be difficult to blame weather/West Coast ports as I supposed this will have been sorted out).
3) Who knows what else might pop up.
==> All of this seems to me like a perfect storm at the horizon, IMHO. The only caveat to this is that I suspect many markets participants also have these points 1,2,3 in the back of their mind.
To conclude, I will repeat myself in saying that I share Rick’s views that this is a bull-trap being set-up, but it will take a few more weeks, and a few more % points higher in conventional markets to be ready/to unfold. If/when 2300pts on S&P comes, I’ll start to look for puts to purchase.
Remember: skating on thin ici in summertime is a dangerous practice.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Kind of what Doc is also saying, LPG
Doc/Richard has found a way to put a microchip in my brain (or what’s left of it) Al.
So that doesn’t really surprise me. Technology seems to work fine. 🙂
Best to you as always,
LPG
Primero Mining looks good:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=P.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=22&id=p52635027586&a=379852816
I’m in a wait-and-see mode. Doesn’t that BUG YOU? I accumulated more shares in a gold junior and followed my own actionable advice.
I’ve been adding to select juniors almost daily lately.
SURE THE DOW IS GOING TO GO UP………………..IT’S FULLY RIGGED THAT WAY !!!!
Stocks are not worth the risk here, but I’m not betting against them right now either.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88764166216&a=371945539
SURE THE DOW JONES IS GOING TO GO UP………………..IT’S FULLY RIGGED THAT WAY !!!!
RICK IS GETTING TO BE FUNNY…………..great comments…………………..j.
Predicting FED loses control at something they are good at is weird. If Venezuela can push their stock to infinity we can definitely achieve their performance at least. Stock will not collapse if FED choses to support it. However, they may not chose so. We are in giant casino now. Investment era is gone. Everything depends on a few central planners.
At the moment, GDX is up 19% in two months when priced in SPY. Whether the Fed has anyone’s back or not, smart money will still continue to rotate out of the expensive sector and into the cheap one.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:SPY&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p56012590673
Didn’t you say 20% just yesterday? Maybe tomorrow will it be 18 but still a plus for the year. Hey you still have bragging rights even when its one percent positive on the season. Hold onto that feeling. You will need it before the year is out to staunch the feeling of crying.
Did I mention gold is going to get smoked in 2015?
Never heard that one before!
Brace for it Al……gold is going to a smoking ruin this year and price will fall below production costs. The whole industry is heading for a very difficult adjustment period that will be marked by closures, bankruptcies and mergers.
Bird, you don’t have to predict. It is already happening.
You are correct Lawrence. It is already happening. The channel that had been developing some time ago that implied gold might be ready to make its next higher high has pretty much been obliterated by this sideways trading.
I don’t mean gold drop I mean miners is suffering dearly if they can avoid outright bankruptcy. The combination of money printing and gold price suppression is a lethal environment for them.
Smoked like a kipper?
Mark Bristow of Randgold says gold mining indusry is hurting but will get under more stress in near future:
Long link:
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/BMO-Metals–Mining-2015/916/2015-02-25/Have-Never-Seen-THIS-In-30-Years—Mark-Bristow
From that Kitco article:
“Mark Bristow says he sees more mergers and acquisition opportunities appearing in the mining industry. “The market is stressed, I don’t think it’s there yet but it’s getting more stressed by the day,” he says. “Never have I seen an opportunity like I feel is appearing in the market for M&A before, in 30 years.”
————
Well, that’s pretty much a synopsis of what I have written here. And I agree. We will see substantial consolidation in the industry in the coming year or two so be careful what you are buying. Some companies will simply cease to exist.
I didn’t talk about GDX priced in SPY yesterday. Nice try though.
Are you talking to yourself again?
Bird…..BEHAVE.
He can’t, Tony. He’s 66 going on 9.
Ha ha….could not resist.
IF he is 66 and a half……………does that make him 666
Gold has another chance to hold at its $1200 support line right now:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/gold-another-chance-today-to-hold-at.html
It will eventually fail and it will first test 1130 and then we will see what happens but i would rather have a washout to 1080-1050 already then wait 6 months. My 2 cents
It is not hard to predict a lower price as the price have been coming down. You will have same conclusion at June 2000. Predicting gold going up is the contrarian.
True but you need catalyst and there is none so far unless some black swan emerges then you will be right. I’m a bull first and foremost but I like to buy oversold conditions not in middle or after rally. So far RSI is not where i want it to and i’ll wait as i believe lower high was big mistake for gold not to break. Punishment is coming lol
Catalyst in money printing. It has always been. It has happened and will keep happening.
BTW, gold is not a persona and does not have its own mind. Its price is determined by a combination of factors. Holding gold may not make you rich but it will exampt you from the wealth draning by government money printing. I know most Jewish have habit of storing gold. No wonder they are richer than the general public. I think it is fairly smart move in most cases, especially in the QE and ZIRP age.
There is a nice little bounce at 1202 now (chart). One might hope that it will hold:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/gold-price-has-bounced-exactly-on-blue.html
Michael Oliver on Jay Taylor’s show would like to see $1215 (not a big move) to clear the downtrend on a weekly close. I would say 1220 but 1215 would be higher than a couple of recent highs.
Then he looks for $1285 in second quarter
A weekly close below 11890 he would not like.
Jay does a good show as well as Al of course!
http://jaytaylormedia.com/media/taylor20150224-1.mp3
Al, your mate Rick; he’s not daft.
In 2000 the stock markets topped but it took until the end of 2001 for the US dollar to top. By that time, the stock market had already crashed more than once, even though that final part of the rise of the dollar wasn’t as steep as what had happened before 2000. So maybe there is precedent for the strong dollar as a potential killer of the stocks market.
Always have to consider history, Silverbug Dave!
AVI ARTICLE IF ANYONE WANTS TO READ
Lower Lows Still to Come for Silver & Gold
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1424811600.php
The dollar chart looks like a short and sharp bull flag.
I don’t know whether to take the Rick Ackerman style ABCD from the low at 79 and change or from the more recentl small low at 84 and change.
Dollar is at 94.22 near the apex if the flag so measured move up is either 10 or 15 points from 94 to either 104 or 109 then Rick?
The dollar in 2014-15 looks like the silver chart from August 2010 to early 2011.
Ross Clark in Feb 2011 on silver:
Ross Clark had measured targets in the 40s for silver in Feb 2011.
Good charts from Ross as always:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/files/2011/02/HoweStreet-Gold-Silver-022111_rossclark.pdf
When you need to get physical gold and silver, it may be to late. I have to wait a bit right now but I can’t imagine what it will be when a lot of people rush into it. And don’t forget the mark up. I’ve read that the big players have to pay 30% and more mark up right now. And if they pay that what do they think its going to? If you want some for insurance reasons I don’t think it would be wise to wait to long to find the bottom.
Jim is always a fascinating and entertaining listen, to quote:
“The Germans yanked the Swiss toilet bowl flush” and suggests the Swiss will dump Euros in the future because they accumulated so many, not a dumbass guess as he succinctly puts it!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24XEU%3A%24XSF
1.20 peg …… BANG! 99 cents next but EUR:CHF has retraced back to 1.07 so maybe gives the Swiss to dump more Euros if they are good traders.
WHERE IS IRISH TONY? Jim says he likes Ireland.
By the way I think Bo Polny is a rank amateur. I and other on this forum know more about the markets in our little fingers than Bo Polny but he is doing a good self promotion job lately.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/bo-polny-the-7-year-stock-market-cycle-is-screaming-get-out-now/
Boy oh boy at least he admits his forecast of $2000 gold at end of 2014 was wrong, I willl give him that.
What is he doind dividing the SPX by the US dollar index. What is the point? The S&P 500 is measured in dollar s anyway. If you want to index it to value it in other currencies like the Kitco Gold Index does, you need to divide it by the inverse of the dollar index like the UDN.
Potential paths for GDX:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p20663354384&a=389600417