Cory is back and the Doctor is in.
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Bob, it looks like it wants to hang up here a little longer. I’m not purchasing again until there’s a little pullback. The weekly still looks good.
Thanks.
HA HA ! A GOOD WINTER in EUROPE AND ( A WINE NEER THE FIRE ! TODAY A CH Cos d’Estournel 2007 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jn_A1dLOfK0
More nice ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EjG9NyQqpdY
Thanks a lot Franky, I am trying to quit drinking wine!
AL ! Something for you BORDEAUX PRICE more ok ! THE 2006 NOW COMING NICE !https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSp5QoEsXh8
Sacre Bleu. Vive le vin American.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0uOnP7HMGU
say it isn’t so Al. Wine is the nectar of heaven. Nothing wrong with a glass or two on any given day.
Good thoughts on Claude Doc. I had averaged into it around $.28 US and cashed out yesterday at $.41 US. Today I am kicking myself because it hit $.45 briefly. I expected a pullback going into the jobs report at the end of the week. If it dips again, I’ll buy the dip.
Anybody have any thoughts on the triple top at 828 that Palladium put in yesterday and today? I can’t decide if that is strong support and it starts to head down, or if it is going to get past the 828 level on the next attempt and break out up above there.
I feel like a big move is coming in Palladium and there has been a bullish tendency as of late, but it is unclear if the bulls are running out of steam or getting ready to charge. Thoughts anyone?
That should have said 828 as strong resistance, not support. If it breaks above that it could really take off, but I am curious to see if Palladium is putting in a temporary top.
Good for you Al. Kicking the wine is never a bad thing.
It is not the wine………it is the excess wine………….lol. .wine is good for the stomach ……..
I agree J….The Long. It also has Resveratrol for longevity. Also, it is an artisan craft and grapes when fermented correctly are magical. Jesus didn’t turn water into sweet tea or serve Coke at the last supper……It was wine.
ditto Shad………..
The owner of american army aircraft landing gear designer ! OLD MAN NOW !
Doc
So is Gold $1255 off the table, do you think we just keep heading down?
Your thoughts on OIL, $55 and we head back down?
There was good buying of gold at $1195 on the attempted breakdowns in this last little while. The daily chart looks a bit sick but the weekly does not look all that bad to me, just bouncing along the bottom .
Gold in Euros still looks fairly healthy and in GB pounds not that bad, kind of lukewarm maybe.
One thing that worries me is the gold:oil ratio which is still at 24, which is well above its historical average of around 15. To normalize this, gold needs to come down or oil needs to go up – or both. Perhaps with economic and credit problems, the gold:oil ratio and gold:CRB ratio is likely to go up. $gold:$WTIC on stockcharts.com has a natty little head and shoulders on the daily chart, target could be around 16.5 to 17 if it works as a pattern.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD%3A%24wtic
Fresnillo silver mining major took a bit git today -8%.
With the dollar index hitting an 11 year high of 96 today it looks like continued downtrending for gold in USD and maybe a very weak uptrend in Euros and perhaps Sterling, unless there is a crash and burn in commodities or some kind of geopolitical black swan.
Gold right now is in limbo. It looks like we might want to turn sideways before we challenge $1255. I believe for a number of technical and fundamental reasons that oil still has one more leg down. These markets are as uncertain as I’ve seen them for awhile. I still believe that the dollar has more room to run on the upside and commodities have more work to the downside.
Al, Cory, Doc, I have 2 lessons I have learned that I wish to share.
1 – no one can predict the future. Yet you all continue to ask, and you continue to answer. Yes, one can see a trend and w/risk mgmt, follow the trend, but no one can predict the future. We all need to wake up, and see this reality.
2 – re-read #1
3 – bonus point – I believe that this universe is designed – that nature is designed, includding us – so something is going on. Is it God or what, I don’t know. But with infinite time beehind us, and infinite time ahead of us, in an infinite universe, there should not be order. Yet we see order. Further, again, we even see design. Our eyes, our nervous system. Constellations. The law of Entropy says that everything should scatter, and not be able to regroup, and our universe is expanding, yet here we are acting as if nothing is going on. Something is. Young or old, and I’m old like you guys, we should be giving to others. Have an island? Sell it, and support the local charities, as the poor who have no job have no hope and can’t help themselves. We need to step in. We are all one, and everyone is our brother and sister, so we should treat everyone w/respect and kindness. If you have a house, and an island, you have not learned this yet. I am still learning, too. But an island? C’mon. I will continue to work on myself, but I hope this awakens us all a bit.
Sometimes an example helps to aid in understanding. GDX right now is trending down. As Gary said it made a lower low today on the daily chart. Gary is expecting that it may continue to go down, because he sees price movement in cycles – going up and then down and then up again – but Gary is a good trader because while he follows cycles, he also will buy if suddenly a cycle is shortened. So if GDX starts to go up sooner than his cycles are saying, then he’ll buy, knowing the risk. To me, this is correct trading – not predicting the future – but RESPONDING to what is. What is.
I myself don’t follow cycles because while I agree that prices move in a wave fashion, that the periods are irregular, and thus aren’t of use to me, yet. I’m still learning.
But if GDX starts to go up, I will go in, managing risk, because I don’t know the future.
David–the trend is down, but possible the money changers might have to buy gold etfs next week, so they can dump them on next FOMC day. A lot will depend on job day. If NFP happens to be good then gold will continue its downtrend. I think the Fed will want to use any excuse to beat around the bush again, so I’m expecting Friday’s report to show weakness. One way they contain gold stocks is by dumping gold etfs, but first they have to buy them. If there is a rally next week, remember it will only last about three days.
The general stock market really scares me right now.
I keep on hearing commentators saying “Don’t worry; the Fed’s got your back.”
People that come Jim Puplava’s Financialsense.com tell us the stockmarket is not overvalued.
I suspect the PPT has intervened to prop up the market occasionally.
What worries me the most is that Government artificially lowering interest rates has caused a distortion in the general stockmarket as people needing income have been forced into the stockmarket as the only place left to go. Now I don’t expect the Fed to raise rates, but I wonder just how fast the general stockmarket might collapse if it started to drop and folks started selling after an initial drop, simply to preserve capital. I see the general stockmarket potentially very susceptible to a major panic and drop.
Clearly trailing stops could provide some protection, but if volatility were to increase this could also be a problem for stops.
Thanks Jane
Any thoughts on OIL?
nope
Then there Ukraine and conspiracy theories:
http://sgtreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/CIA-LIES-Economic-Collapse-The-Bankers-WW3-Harley-Schlanger.mp3
The saga of the oil patch.
New Zealand Energy Announces $2,100,000 Private Placement Financing
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The maximum Offering is 52,500,000 Common Shares for gross proceeds of $2,100,000. The Offering is not subject to any minimum aggregate subscription.
Three simple points:
1) GDXJ needs to go down $4 to meet its last low, which is about 16% lower from here. In the grand scheme of things, 16% is not a lot (at least in my book).
2) FWIW, remember Avi Gilburt still expect $105 on GLD (= c. $1090 for spot gold) or even lower levels, and low teens for GDX.
If low teens = $12… that’s about 40% lower from here.
3) We haven’t really had a PROPER capitulation in the sector. It doesn’t mean we’ll get it… but we haven’t had it yet.
4) No need to freak out. But be prepared and ready.
Have a plan, and a plan after the plan.
Have cash to deploy for
a) special MARKET conditions due to dislocations
and
b) special STOCKS situations (for ex. like what we had in Claude Resources).
==> So again, I’ll repeat: be prepared by having a plan, and a plan after the plan.
This will take away a lot of the emotions IFFFFFFF the worst is to come in gold and on certain stocks.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
Going to be pedantic now LPG – 12 is not a ‘teen’.
13 is a teen, so is 14 and onwards to 19. The clue is in the ‘teen’ as part of thirteen, fourteen, fifthteen, sixteen, etc, etc, etc.
There is no ‘teen’ in ten, eleven, twelve.
🙂
Bab UK,
Thank you for pointing this out – appreciated.
I didn’t know this subtlety. [English no me mother tongue, ya know 🙂 ]
I’m glad I learned on more thing today (on top of “skit” from Chris Temple).
Bob, you were not pedantic: you were precise – and I value precision.
So thanks again, and best to you,
LPG
It starts at 13 as that was the age when you were considered to become a man in olden days.
Nowadays it is when you develop acne and shout at your parents about how much you hate them. 🙂
lol !
Personally, I thought that teens = in the 10s, ie from 10 to 19.
So the interesting part of this is that low teens = starting $13… so that’s 35% from here.
Which really makes me think that for the QUALITY NAMES, even if gold makes a lower low (assuming we’re not talking $800-850 here)… then I see it as very likely that their last Nov/Dec 2014 lows will not be broken on the downside – while the lesser quality names might just go slowly down the drain.
I might be wrong on this one, but this is what I think. And as a side note, as I’ve mentioned before, my lowest stink bids on stocks are ABOVE their respective Nov/Dec 2014 lows.
My 2 cts.
LPG
https://dictionary.search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=A0LEViXXJvlU7xoAuIUlnIlQ?p=teen&.sep=&fr=yhs-mozilla-004
16% on the GDXJ in relation to today’s price is not a lot when it has already fallen more than 80% from its top I suppose! it’s just one more kick in the nuts for the goldbug crowd.
Silverbug Dave,
I suspect I might have been misunderstood with my statement.
So I will elaborate below and be more specific in order to clearly explain more clearly what I meant with “In the grand scheme of things, 16% is not a lot (at least in my book)”.
My starting point is that junior PM stocks (which make up GDXJ) are very volatile. And GDXJ itself is relatively volatile as well.
So from that perspective, a 16% move, in my book, is not a lot to me given the volatility of the instrument.
Had I been talking about a major currency (major currencies are typically less volatile than PM stocks) then a 16% move, while the same in percentage terms, would be much more meaningful – in my book.
And to a certain degree, a 16% move for ex. in the S&P is more significant to me than a 16% move in GDXJ, again, due to the lesser volatility.
Let’s take this final example.
When people make 15-20% in the conventional markets in one year, it’s like: “Yeah, party time ! We rock !!! Conventional markets izzzzzzz daaaaa best” (Ali G. style 🙂 )
But when kereport readers/viewers can get into Claude Resources at below 30cts and can sell about 4mths later for 40,45,50,55cts (representing a gain of at least 33% and up to >80%), it’s no big deal. It’s like: ok….what’s next ?
I don’t know…maybe it’s just me. But when I get moves of 3,4,5% in one day on my stocks, I don’t budge – I almost don’t pay attention.
I start to pay attention when I get moves closer to 7,8,10% in one day, and then I really pay attention to volumes…(ie if the move is matched by volumes).
I realized the “mismatch” between my reality as a PM/resource investor with the reality of more conventional investors during my last vacation in December.
One of my relative, looking at my screens, saw stocks up/down 3,4,5% for the day and said “wow, some of your stocks are up/dow 5%”. And I responded “yeah… big deal….”. In response, I had eyebrows raised and big eyes staring at me as if I lived in another planet. (ok, maybe I do…) 🙂 🙂 🙂
Hope this clarify my thought and why I mentioned “16% is not a lot”. And I understand that this depends of everyone’s tolerance level or sense of perspective. That’s why I mentioned “in my book” 🙂 🙂 🙂
Best to you & good luck to all investing/trading.
LPG
I learned my lesson few rally’s back to sell and go away for month or two when it tops. I spotted the top and exited. I missed 5% but whatever. It’s all good.
I’m with AVI on this one and Gary. What a murk that will be if we see 1050 and 10-12 on gdx. I hope from there gdx will go up 200% from it’s lows on its recovery leg?
Any thoughts on this?
The S&P 500 is just nudging the top line of its trend channel that has lasted a couple of years or more. Perhaps a downmove to the bottom of that uptrend channel is in order because it is looking a bit tired at this point. There is a slight deceleration of the uptrend in my view. The bottom of that uptrend channel is at around 2000 on the SPX. Of course there was already a bit of a rogue move down late last year into the 1800s but it was quickly repaired. Really, it is like watching paint dry, very slow drying paint!
Yep, watching paint dry is a good description. Waiting for something to happen.
LPG are you on Kitcos payroll…?
Agatha Gisty.
No I’m not. Are you?
Best,
LPG
I don’t know if Kitco can afford a guy who speaks four languages AND understands gold.
😉 🙂
I don’t understand gold Matthew.
Remember what uncle Ben said in a testimony: “nobody understand gold” … (???)
Best to you and GL for the remainder of the week,
LPG
BTW… if anyone is interested in a long read – but with VERY ENLIGHTENING pieces:
http://www.morgancreekcap.com/pdfs/market_outlook/MCCM%204Q2014_Market%20Review%20&%20Outlook.pdf
To give credit where it’s due, this was a link at the bottom of “Casey Research Daily Dispatch – Midweek Matters” – dated today.
Best to all, and happy reading – or not.
LPG
Rank
ETF Name
ETF Symbol
Yield
1
UBS E-TRACS Mthly Pay 2x Mortg REIT ETN
MORL
20.54%
2
db X-trackers MSCI Brazil Hedged Eq ETF
DBBR
19.24%
3
Credit Suisse Silver Shares Cov Call ETN
SLVO
17.87%
4
UBS E-TRACS 2x Wells Fargo Bus Dv Cm ETN
BDCL
16.66%
5
iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped ETF
REM
15.60%
6
PowerShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF
PSP
14.10%
7
Credit Suisse Gold Shares Covered Call ETN
GLDI
13.64%
8
Market Vectors Mortgage REIT ETF
MORT
13.20%
9
SPDR S&P International Telecom Sector ETF
IST
12.42%
10
EGShares India Infrastructure ETF
INXX
10.73%
This is a bit of a list of dividend paying etfs, might be somewhere to put some cash for people on the U.S. market. Until we get the raging Bull back in gold anyway.
Its a few months old now so a bit of dd would be required, I just decided its been on my email long enough, thought Id post it before I deleted it.
Nice if it helped somebody.
Cheers bb.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks bb.
A little better than the whopping 2% ya get from gold companies. lol
ONLY GOLD ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LUzEKrp8rHA
My highest sale of Claude today, was .4460 U.S. but I still have a substantial position.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p68561208421&a=397042274
Sweet Matthew – kudos for the nice ride.
Personally, I’m out of it. Aiming to get back on pullbacks – if they come.
Best to you,
LPG
LPG, if Claude didn’t have the fundamentals that it does, I probably wouldn’t be holding any either at this point (weekly RSI @76; daily @80+). However, I’ve learned, sometimes the hard way, that no asset can leave you behind like a massively oversold junior miner after an ugly bear market. They can buck overbought readings like I’ve never seen in larger, more liquid and marginable stocks.
Long term, I see Claude at many times the current price so money that’s looking to get positioned for the long term could push it up much further before letting it pullback.
The fear caused by a plunging price shakes out most investors while the overbought readings that come with quick gains takes care of the rest.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96039627643&a=397131907
EURO EURO EURO EURO ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4uDSnYQx3Q
HERE WE GO………….ECB………to buy govt. bonds………….
to INFINITY AND BEYOND………………..
They do not need DOLLARS TO DO THIS……….
who listens to casey research very poor track record LPG
Doug casey is a rich guy. He did it by following his own wisdom. Most people may not have his persistence including myself but his opinion is good for reference purposes for investors but not traders. If you are rich, following his opinion could be more profitable. If you are poor, forget it.
Agatha Gisty,
If anyone brings to my attention something/some material dealing with the way some of the best investors of all times think – and I consider Soros as one of them – then I tend to pay attention and be thankful. To me, these investors are successful MOSTLY BECAUSE of the way they think.
IFFFFF you didn’t know the link I put referred to a report where Soros’ way of thinking and investing was mentioned, then maybe it would have been wise to check the link first, and comment after. Unless you did it already, and for you, “learning” how the best in the business think have limited/low value – that’s ok.
Now, if you wanna pass on this type of document because of the messenger has a poor track record in your opinion, that’s your call and your entire right.
But I would highlight my initial note/comment/post was referring to the material provided by the messenger – ie a report where Soros is mentioned at length.
Lastly, I like to give credit where it’s due. That’s just me. MAYBE it’s not your style. And that’s your right if that’s the case.
Lastly, on a separate note, you asked me if I was on Kitco’s payroll, and I answered you. In return, I enquired about yourself, something you haven’t responded to yet – again, it’s your right not to respond, but I just note that you haven’t done so yet.
GL to you – with or without Casey Research, and with or without reading on the best in this business.
LPG
KERR MINES………………..UP 31% TODAY………………..just saying…………j
Am buying VXX calls this morning and am already up.
someone else,,,L read yesterday….was suggesting the same thing…..they were long VXX
Doc, do you have any thoughts on XON?
It had a 20% on Monday due to its results – not sure how much of that rise were the results and how much was short covering as the short position was massive. It is still huge.
I was hoping for a 10% drop and instead it went double that in the opposite direction.
It now looks very hyped and bubbly but, having read up on things, it does appear to be one of the biotechs that could be very profitable in the future re its research. I think it has a future but has just got too far ahead of itself at the moment.
Would love a buying opportunity in it.