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Gary on the markets a minor political commentary from Big Al

Big Al
March 4, 2015

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180 Comments
    Mar 04, 2015 04:25 AM

    In these manipulated politics and markets fundamentals and technicals don’t matter one bit! What matters is the opinion and intents of a small group of dominant men who own governments and markets. It has all got to crash and burn before honesty and salvation is possible. Better an end in horror than a horror with out end as far as the system is concerned.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:28 AM

      And that is where their power comes from; why end something that is so profitable and when the victims only want an end?

        Mar 04, 2015 04:19 PM

        Remember Black Swans do exist and like most birds they can bird bomb from high heights.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:26 PM

          I would like to see him poop anytime now… (;-/

          Mar 04, 2015 04:12 PM

          Boy do I know that given our golf course!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:05 PM

        We all here in the west have had a taste of democracy and free markets but slowly year after year the elite have slowly been taking back control. Why do you think Commy country’s don’t want democracy? Simple answer is they want control, control of every aspect of your life, your wallet first and foremost.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:07 PM

      Interesting point Steven!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:34 PM

        Better an end in horror than a horror with out end. This was one of the ideas that went through the minds of a few Germans just before the Battle of the Bulge. It was a situation where they either had to destroy the western allies or get wiped out themselves and bring a one sided contest to an end one way or another. In the current situation the world of finance and politics has got to go or we got to go. I for one don’t like the idea of making things easy on those I believe to be criminals or enemies. War comes in may guises Al.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:25 PM

          Yes it certainly does Steven.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:36 AM

    Fresnillo has had a big fall today in London – it is a good indicator often of which direction gold and silver is going to go. Yes, it came out with poor results for 2014 but perhap that is just going to be indicative of a lot of the miners.

    I think Gary is spot on here and that we are going to see $1130 reached later this month and perhaps go lower.

    The action clearly now is in the conventional markets. A nice dip / correction would be welcome.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:36 AM

      Yes it did, didn’t it? Fresnillo is down 8.46 percent at 724.50. Not a nice day for those investors! Getting close to its lows from January 2014 and Nov 2014 at just under 700. I think their Mexican buddy announced terrible results and maybe that had an impact.
      https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/mexican-miner-penoles-reports-1-151241243.html

      It is just the teeth of a bear market. It is interesting to note then that there has been no improvement in the share performance of Fresnillo, a silver major miner, in over a year and a triple bottom is approaching.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:29 PM

        I stupidly missed out on the end of Dec rally in gold as I had a price for Fresnillo to go, which was under £7.00 to and I stupidly held to it despite getting to about 10p of it – then it was off to the races and, each day, I hoped it would go back down.

        Result, missed out on a good 30% increase. Will I learn? Probably not. This is the second time I have been close to buying FRES near the £7.00 mark, not done so and then missed out on strong rallies.

        I think we will go below 1130 in gold and, as a result, I can see FRES get to its own 52 week low and perhaps break it. I will buy in that ball park this time.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:08 PM

      You bet that is where the action is now!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:41 AM

    This one is for Birdman – I saw your comments posted last night about commodities such as Sugar and Coffee.

    I haven’t checked Coffee but the SUGA ETF, listed on the FTSE, made a new 52 week low today – it is about £10.32 as I type down from a 52 week of about £17.82. Basically has lost half its value.

    There is a drought in Brazil – the world’s largest sugar grower – but other countries such as Mexico, Thailand, Ukraine (Yes, the Ukraine) and Russia have had bumper harvests in recent years. It will be interesting to see how much lower the price of sugar can go.

    I am beginning to think not much further – but I would like to see a good 50% fall in SUGA first down to about £9.00… but it would take a lot to get there, which I doubt, so I am beginning to wonder whether we are going to see people jumping in before long.

    p.s.

    I do not have a clue any anything 🙂

      Mar 04, 2015 04:47 AM

      Hey thanks Bob. I think this bears watching as we are right near that 2010 low now but the chart looks threatening so its a wait and see if it falls below the line. I sometimes think the fundamental reasons are less valid than the chart patterns and maybe this is one of those times that a drought is just coincidental.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:06 AM

        Have to keep an eye on the drought in Brazil. Will the El Nino make this year hotter and drier than last year? If so, the sugar crop in Brazil, and perhaps Mexico, could suffer.

        The El Nino is supposed to affect the entire planet so could it have an affect later in the summer in places like the Ukraine, Russia? Will the already low price of sugar cause some growers to planet less sugar this year? Who knows?

        I suspect that we will wake up one day and discover that the likes of sugar, coffee, etc, have spiked considerably. The banksters will just decide that the price has gone low enough and that they can make a quick 50% profit by pumping and dumping.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:13 AM

          All I know for sure Bob is that both are still falling and once I feel they are again at new bottoms I am buying. Probably won’t get the same chance again for years after they finally reverse and go back up. I expect it will be rocky though. So long term bets.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:10 PM

            So were you involved in stock or commodities or both?

            Mar 04, 2015 04:31 PM

            Big UK lead story on the News networks tonight about the hidden amounts of sugar in foods that you would not expect sugar to be in, such as bread, and talk about govt health crackdown on sugar.

            You know, longer term I can see sugar going the way of tobacco.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:09 PM

            Boy, I certainly do not see that.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:16 PM

            They are talking about it more and more here in the UK Big Al.

            A lot of it is to do with the bureaucrats wanting to control everything – they have their eyes on alcohol and now on sugar. The sugar thing is because the Brits are turning into obese diabetics just like many Americans.

            Having said that, in the past 5 hours I have gone through two packets of dark chocolate ginger biscuits so I can’t throw, um, ginger chocolate bisucuits at anyone 🙂

            Mar 04, 2015 04:45 PM

            “You know, longer term I can see sugar going the way of tobacco.”

            You could be right, Bob.
            This docu from over a year ago shows that big tobacco borrowed their tactics from big sugar; and food companies have been worried about their role in diabetes and heart disease for many years.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDaYa0AB8TQ

      Mar 04, 2015 04:51 AM

      I think the soft commodities falling with the hard assets lends credence to the whole commodity complex bottoming this spring/summer as many of us have been discussing since the end of last year. I would be concerned about making new lows in many commodities before we bottom.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:09 PM

      You have plenty of clues Bob UK!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:34 PM

        A few years ago there was some bankster who tried to corner the market in chocolate – cocoa beans – as the price had plunged and he saw the opportunity to buy en masse. The result being a spike in cocoa prices.

        I think some ‘clever’ so and so will do the same with one of the soft commodities this spring. Might cause a panic reaction in other soft commodities?

          Mar 04, 2015 04:50 PM

          That is quite possible Bob UK. I still believe the whole commodity complex is bottoming and will put in its lows over the next few months, as the dollar will likely hit 101-102 and then top. As the dollar tops and the commodities bottom, this will be a unique period to pick out the leaders in each space and enjoy a 3 -5 year commodity bull cycle.

          Like Doc has said though, no real rush, as I don’t expect things to go down and pop back up right away. It is likely the bottom will happen on a day where there isn’t much fanfare, and the grind up will will have fits and starts so it won’t really look like a recovery right away. What will become apparent in June – Sept is that the commodities should all start rising in tandem, as the general markets come under increasing pressure. I expect the dollar to top and commodities to bottom 1-3 months before the blow off phase in the stock market S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:43 AM

    Sounds good Gary. I thought you pretty much nailed it. The dollar however is making a monkey of my dollar correction theory this morning by popping above 96 but I guess the day is not over yet!

      Mar 04, 2015 04:08 AM

      HA …..You’re monkey days haven’t even begun yet.

      Wait till the end of the year.

      The doe doe goofy monkey banana peel award will soon be yours.

      Start thinkin of a new handle name. You gonna need it !!!!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:14 AM

        Is that your call on the dollar then? 🙂

          Mar 04, 2015 04:22 AM

          If you’re a good little boy I might release that information
          without charging a nominal fee.

          Need to promise to be good though !!!!!

            Mar 05, 2015 05:30 AM

            Thanks..J…I feel like a very stupid man though, not
            surrendering to God decades ago. Foolish on my behalf.

            Just happy to have fellowship where ever it’s available
            now a day’s. God is telling me I need great spiritual strength
            in the days ahead. It’s easy to think like the world. Everyone
            is doing it.

            The road is narrow and few will inherit The Kingdom Of God.
            Its bad out there in the Christian community as they are falling
            away. Even in my own family. Its a lot of grief trying to keep
            reminding them. Satan is doing a fine job deterring everyone
            away from the faith. Even for myself I fight it daily. The world
            is a big attraction.

            Thanks for all the great fellowship. Andrew too.

            God Bless everyone and peace to all. : )

            Fighting the good fight….

            Do not feel foolish, …….remember Paul was also, a little late…..and now look, he is the messenger………………

            Paul was to take the message to the Gentiles…………but, 99 % do not even know that.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:52 PM

            Thanks…J….for the encouragement.

            God Bless you for your eternal wisdom.

            You are truly a wonderful one of a kind brother in Christ : )

            Your words are not often heard. Truly a blessing

            Thank you !!!!! : ) triple ditto !!!

            And God bless you for your stick to it ness………Thanks for speaking boldly , for
            few have the guts or the wisdom to try and help his fellow man……j

            Mar 05, 2015 05:39 PM

            The good news …J….is your a saved God believing true Christian man.

            Unfortunately, one of few. Eternity will be a lot of fun with our loving
            compassionate brothers and sisters. Hopefully we will meet in The
            Father’s House and enjoy great eternal things that are coming.

            Something this world can’t compete with. Bad events are coming
            to this world but believers have much to look forward to.

            God Bless. ..MARANATHA !!!! see you there. ..

            Away from all the lies and corruption. J…we know The Gospel is the good news. : )

            Mar 04, 2015 04:35 PM

            HH Thanks for the post. I must say that the coming solar eclipse on the 20th gives one huge pause for thought, more so given the extraordinary Obama/Netanyahu rift which is an unthinkable development. For those who may be confused by what solar/lunar eclipses mean for messianic Jews the post beneath offers an ‘objective’ assessment. Blessings, A

            http://www.angelsghosts.com/2014-2015-eclipses-jewish-holy-days

            Mar 04, 2015 04:17 PM

            Reverend Andrew thanks and appreciate your priceless wisdom in this
            matter. Below is my concerns regarding the fraud on this site.

            USDX pumpers on the board and posts that follow below this commentary
            never mention that fact The Dollar is infected with bags full of puss of
            unsustainable debt, derivatives, entitlements that can never be serviced
            especially with interest rates at 500 year lows. WHAT A JOKE !!!

            Interest rates will rise. This can’t be sustained. Anyway, the fraud and
            deception on this board is an atrocitie.

            Comex price of gold should be ignored. That too is a fraud. But no, there’s
            a mole that clutters up the board with his ridiculous long commentaries
            leading everyone to the poor house when this ponzi make believe world
            completely falls and craters.

            Those commentaries should be assigned no value or have any merit
            whatsoever.

            There are do many developments and events that its most likely we have
            entered a new paradigm. All I’m saying is this mole commentary is preposterous,
            invalid and doomed for failure. Its frustrating having to be pitched with all
            this USDX fraud.

            THAT’S ALL IT IS TOO, ANDREW….ALL FRAUD !!!!!!!

            Mar 04, 2015 04:45 PM

            Same commentators below are all notoriously fickle.

            Been here now long enough to know.

            With…O….in office these same commentators would be
            better off flipping a coin. They have no idea whats coming
            because they are …for the world, in the world and of the world.

            Thats all the wisdom they have. Just like the herd.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:13 PM

            Reverend Andrew I did read the article you posted. There is significantly a
            chance of an event. However, we have another one in Sept. I believe.

            Thanks for posting. Much appreciated. Until the end of this year we are in
            high risk territory. Well, all we need to do is look at the shape the world is
            in. Rich blessings !!!!! Hope all is well too. : )

            Mar 04, 2015 04:26 PM

            BTW…Kirby may not be too far off the mark.

            Contrary to the horse manure on here.

            The world will come unhinged. NO DOUBT ABOUT IT !!!!

            Preparing everyone incl. Family and myself. ..Spiritually.

            I’m walking the talk. I’m ready for the carnage. Not listening
            to moles.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:42 AM

            Thanks HH. Yes I treat Al’s site with an increasingly light touch.
            For me people like Kirby, Craig Roberts, Paul Sandhu, Greg Hunter and others (not forgetting dear ol’ Bob Moriarty!) it is they who truly cut to the chase, if not the quick. As for people with their endless God-forsaken opinions and who choose to play God I simply detest them!

            Peace to you dear brother! Andrew

            Mar 05, 2015 05:56 AM

            Watch, laugh and then cry. In this deadly game of thrones Netanyahu – the new ‘king of Israel’ is but inheriting the mantle of Theodore Herzl, to set himself up as the new idol.

            http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-4633404,00.html

            Amen………………HH…and A…………

            Mar 05, 2015 05:01 AM

            Reverend Andrew. Pento is far from an idiot and he warns this whole
            world is about to crack up into a super nova collapse as well. Have not
            seen that article yet but not a huge KWN fan. Thanks for posting and the
            other one you posted couldn’t understand Hebrew. However, I know where
            all this is going.

            Israel is going to attack Iran. When, is difficult to predict. Could be soon. Still,
            its coming. We are going into a financial collapse the world has never seen before
            that’s how bad It’s going to be.

            Mankind has nothing to look forward to. You know, maybe, but will stop there. This
            is a new paradigm. It’s time to be in the world, not of the world and not for the world.
            Well, in the world, much better to be with The Father In Heaven before this catastrophe
            hits.

            Thanks and appreciate your comments. Peace and Rich Blessings always. : )

            You too…J ..both of you are great blessings here. If I don’t post I’m spending
            much more time with the Christian community. That’s where my heart is.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:58 AM

            Blessings to both of you, A

            HH…..YOU are very smart…..spending time here gets depressing…..,except for some spiritual conversations, which the world wants nothing of…….j….

            DITTO…………………A………………………………….J

            Mar 05, 2015 05:34 AM

            Yes WAY too much waffle. Best to you J. Stay strong and fear not.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:47 AM

            My post got redirected 17 posts approx..above this one.

            Maybe this won’t make it either…

      Mar 04, 2015 04:21 AM

      Birdman,
      The correction for the dollar you are expecting is just short-term, right? Longer term you expect the dollar higher? I expect the dollar higher b/c of interest rate expectations, prettiest currency around, worldwide reserve currency, people everywhere buying dollars to invest in US markets. Short-term I have no idea, which is usually the case for me. So I do not trade. Thanks

        Mar 04, 2015 04:47 AM

        Yes Derek, corrective decline only. The dollar has tremendous fundamentals behind its rise and those will be fulfilled in the next few years. I think a bet on the dollar is a no lose proposition beyond the corrective period I think is about to happen.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:12 PM

          So we agree on this one, Bird.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:13 PM

            I said that because I am not a short term thinker because I can’t afford to be!

            Mar 04, 2015 04:35 PM

            Seriously Al, we cannot be long term either. Not at this age.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:24 PM

            Common Bird, I just bought this new great multi-level marketing product that guarantees me another fifty years. Going to start advertising it on the site. I can’t keep a deal this good to myself. (Yes Visa, Mastercard, etc will all be accepted!)

      Mar 04, 2015 04:11 PM

      No the day’s not over yet. But I still think the U.S.$ for remain strong for awhile. Where else you gonna go?

        Mar 04, 2015 04:27 PM

        Warren: Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch Received $6 Trillion Backdoor Bailout from Fed

        Yesterday, the Senate Banking Committee held the first of its hearings on widespread demands to reform the Federal Reserve to make it more transparent and accountable.

        Senator Elizabeth Warren put her finger on the pulse of the growing public outrage over how the Federal Reserve conducts much of its operations in secret and appears to frequently succumb to the desires of Wall Street to the detriment of the public interest. Warren addressed the secret loans that the Fed made to Wall Street during the financial crisis as follows:

        http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/03/warren-citigroup-morgan-stanley-merrill-lynch-received-6-trillion-backdoor-bailout-from-fed/

          Mar 04, 2015 04:26 PM

          Do you think that her comments might have something to do with political aspirations? No, of course not!

            Mar 04, 2015 04:43 PM

            Al…someone has to ask the questions when they get overwhelmed by the public. It’s Fraud…plain and simple.

            “Now, let’s be clear, those Fed loans were a bailout too. Nearly all the money went to too-big-to-fail institutions. For example, in one emergency lending program, the Fed put out $9 trillion and over two-thirds of the money went to just three institutions: Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch.

            “Those loans were made available at rock bottom interest rates – in many cases under 1 percent. And the loans could be continuously rolled over so they were effectively available for an average of about two years.”

            One of the key reasons that the Fed wanted to keep this information buried from the public is that Citigroup was insolvent during the period it was receiving loans from the Fed.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:36 PM

        Exactly Al. I like your view on this a lot. I think you have it figured just right.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:19 PM

        Thats a joke !!!!!!!

    bb
    Mar 04, 2015 04:49 AM

    I don’t see anything ending, maybe a bit of a change when enough countries drop the American dollar, but otherwise, nobody (or not enough people) are going to figure anything out.
    I was laughing with a friend the other day about the iq level of people that like “funniest home videos”, these people actually see humour in children hurting themselves. People like that are never going to understand currency devaluation for example, much less anything else, heck how many times have we been shown the “average” person can not find a country or even a continent on a map.

    I don’t think any change comes from us, we are just too plain stupid.
    On average anyway.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:00 AM

      No countries are going to drop the US Dollar bb.

      Sorry, but that thinking is just the wacky thinking of some Americans who have little understanding of global commerce, trade and banking… or who have never gone outside the borders of the US… or who have been reading anti-US sites purporting to be pro-US sites IMPO.

      There is not one single Western country that is going to drop the US Dollar.

      As for all those countries that we consider potential enemies of the West – what currency do you think that their leaders hold their cash in in those Swiss, London and Cayman Island bank accounts?

      It will be Sterling, Swiss Francs, Norweigan Krona, Euros and, in the main, US Dollars.

      Why would, for example, Putin want to try and destroy the US Dollar? I suspect that he has a great deal of his personal wealth in various bank accounts around the world in US Dollars?

        bb
        Mar 04, 2015 04:27 AM

        Bob, there are already countries dropping the U.S. dollar.
        Russia China have been working to replace the “swift” system, they are creating or just created a credit card to replace mastercard and visa.

        Many countries have entered into agreements to bypass the American dollar. it just a matter of time Bob.
        It wont happen overnight, the reserve status changing from pound to dollar took awhile too, but it happened. So will this in time.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:27 AM

      Kind of funny bb. I guess God gave us all a choice in life. We could sit around the campfire grunting and poking sticks in the embers while staring hypnotically at the flames or we could get engaged and try to understand what makes the fire burn. Its left brained versus right brain stuff. One of those activities shuts down our rational thought processes effectively short circuiting our intellectual capabilities and the other strengthen neurons and memory. Those of us who follow markets most closely are using our minds actively while the television folks are truly being dumbed down (and usually don’t even know it).

        Mar 04, 2015 04:45 AM

        But those who get dumbed down and don’t recognize the chaos that will unfold once it all hits the fan seem to be less stressed in the meantime, eh?

          Mar 04, 2015 04:53 AM

          Ha! Yes Wise guy they are relaxed all right. Just like all the passengers on a bus during the calm moments before it unexpectedly slides on the ice and rolls over into a mud filled ditch. That’s about the time they all wake up shocked and start shouting “WTF just happened”!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:15 PM

        Certainly agree on that Bird.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:38 PM

          Funny image anyway. A car wreck is always a shock. I just dread them but what can you do. Fact of our lives and nobody escapes having an accident or two. But all of society going to a wreck at once?……now that’s a depression for sure.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:36 AM

      bb, I have felt the same way as you do for a long time about “funniest home videos”, ditto on that idea. DT

        bb
        Mar 04, 2015 04:51 AM

        DT, I should have added anyone with actual intelligence is on this blog (for the most part) lol, there is just not enough of us.

        Bird, your right about people don’t know they are being “dumbed down”, most people believe as they are told to believe. Thus the revelations of the Zeitgeist, to explain how it started anyway and how advantage is taken.
        Also, we now are beginning to understand our brains and how they work.
        I really find it interesting they can now prove that if a person believes he can or can not, its true. for example, amazing stuff actually.
        Oh, the u tubes “theory of everything” is really eye opening about how we think etc, problem is, you need intelligence just to understand it so that kinda leaves me out. lol

          Mar 04, 2015 04:28 AM

          Oh I doubt that bb. You are clearly a very bright guy. Just stay away from the boob tube! That damn thing is designed to make us all soft headed, programmed and compliant. Once you get a large enough dose of it you will never think like a normal human being again……just a parrot of what was telecast.

            bb
            Mar 04, 2015 04:51 AM

            Life is good, Life is good, buy stock, buy more stocks.
            I got it figured now, lol

            Mar 04, 2015 04:46 AM

            LOL

            Mar 04, 2015 04:54 AM

            Make that a double LOL.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:17 PM

          Belief is incredibly powerful bb. I learned that when I was studying hypnosis believe it or not.

          By the way, hypnosis is nothing more than taking more control of your brain.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:16 PM

        It is called “Simply Stupid Tv”!

      Mar 04, 2015 04:14 PM

      Agreed bb.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:41 PM

      They will learn what currency devaluation means when their supper costs a weeks pay or more and anything on 2 or more legs looks good to eat. Hyper inflation gets people doing some pretty unusual things for the sake of a bite to eat.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:21 PM

        Survival is a very strong emotion!

        Mar 05, 2015 05:36 AM

        That’s true Steven. I lost two cats in the past couple months. Good healthy well fed and happy cats too. They jut never returned. One of my neighbors owns an Phillipino restaurant and someone warned me that a few of their tribes eat cats. I really don’t know. But maybe my boys met a bad end and got put on the menu.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:09 AM

    Gary:
    With all the tape painting, naked paper short selling and other “manipulative’ actions capable in today’s ‘markets’ by numerous players, can anyone possibly know what’s likely to happen tomorrow??????????

    Mar 04, 2015 04:14 AM

    I feel a micro pop up in Gold coming in the next 48 hours. Very tight stops:)

      Mar 04, 2015 04:19 AM

      Do you feel it in your waters Confused? If so, it might just be a kidney infection. Drink lots of cranberry juice and go see your doctor? 🙂

        Mar 04, 2015 04:31 AM

        Ha Ha Ha!! So that’s the solution. Thanks Bob….i just need more Cranberry Juice and then maybe that damn dollar will stop going up and wrecking my theories.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:18 PM

        Actually cranberry and vodka, Bob UK!

          Mar 04, 2015 04:35 PM

          Never tried that Big Al despite cranberry being one of my favourite drinks… and I do have some Polish blood in me 🙂

            Mar 04, 2015 04:07 PM

            As do I, Bob UK!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:15 AM

    AL ! Europe is a TOTAL DESASTER ! Des communistes are totally destroying and control freaking all the economy and hope of the population !

      Mar 04, 2015 04:20 AM

      Which Communists are you referring to franky?

      I can only think of one EU country where communists have any say in the government. That is Greece as of January 25th.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:27 AM

        The new SOVJET is THE EUROPEAN BUREAUCRATS ! Day mast STOP ! THE EURO AND ALL EU INSANITY !

          Mar 04, 2015 04:28 AM

          WAR TO THE EU AND ALL DAY ARE !

            Mar 04, 2015 04:49 AM

            Deep breathing now. In and…. out. Relax.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:19 PM

      That is my understanding Franky!

      Mar 04, 2015 04:51 PM

      Actually most places with congresses, parliaments and warfare/ welfare states are communist disasters. It is merely a question of degree and presentation but underneath it all the communist mentality rules. It all has to crash and burn and it has to be severe enough to scare the hell out of people for generations. In fact it needs to be severe enough to have the trouble makers in politics and banking as the guests of honor at a neck tie party. As the French used to say, “Adieu ancient regime.”

        Mar 04, 2015 04:18 PM

        Another interesting point, Steven!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:16 AM

    Just wondering at what price do investors start to realize an asset class is cheap.
    I remember when gold was 252.00 it didn’t matter what anyone thought, technical analysis, fundamental analysis etc. meant nothing.

    You just knew it was so dirt cheap, it was going up.

    It feels close. The metals as an asset class are so cheap now.
    AAPL, AMZN cheap?

    At some point investors will start to think……hmmmm….maybe its time to put a few bucks into the metals.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:21 AM

      I agree Dave but I personally do not think it is yet.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:32 AM

        I agree with you too Dave and also think Bob is correct.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:39 AM

        Another consideration is time. 4 years is a long time for the excesses to have been rung out. Who owns it? Answer, no one.

        All the permabulls, Morgan, Sinclair, Schiff, Sprott, etc. have all been so discredited by now, they have no audience.

        So question becomes, who then is left to sell? This is the problem with the bear case.

        At some point, an investor must ask himself/herself are stocks cheap? Is housing cheap?
        After all, stocks are clearly in the greater fool part of the 6 1/2 year bull market. Bonds cheap?

          Mar 04, 2015 04:21 PM

          Housing is both incredibly cheap and incredibly expensive. Just depends on the market you are talking about.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:06 PM

            If house prices are equal to or less than three years pay then they are affordable. If not then they are over priced. From each according to his greed to each according to his ability to pay. A house is just a place to live and not an investment.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:16 PM

            Don’t agree about a house not being investment but certainly agree about the price being 3 years wages or less.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:52 AM

            Homes typically cost upwards of 30 to 40 times annual salaries in East Africa now. And that is not homes in the major cities either. It is perhaps the biggest housing bubble on earth when calculated according to the ratio of average annual incomes versus home costs. And yet there are no bank mortgages available whatsoever. There is zero credit for autos and houses. It is all cash deals or no deal at all. But they still sell. You can pay more for a small home here these days than it costs in the typical suburban US neighborhood (excluding the major US cities I mean). Totally nuts. Not even China posts these kinds of price ratios. Price to rent is equally insane. I believe this bubble will pop as the global economy finally hits stall speed and goes down some time next year. But who really knows. The demographic is so youthful here and home prices have never declined in anyone’s memory. They only went up and up and then up some more. We had a single year appreciation of 25% in my neighborhood which just floored me. I mean come on!!! This is the developing world….how is that even possible for homes made primarily of cinder blocks, mud and wooden posts? Think Mexican Adobe and you will know what I am talking about. They are dirt cheap to build.

            Mar 05, 2015 05:28 AM

            And now comes an answer to one of the missing puzzle pieces of what ails China with regards to its housing bubble and how it will directly impact on the economy. It is taxation linked to land sales which are highly leveraged to the property cycle.

            The picture is not pretty one.

            Take a look at this linked article from Ambrose Evans Pritchard of the Telegraph and note how sharply tax revenues have declined as a result of the property market suddenly going soft. Yikes!!! And to make matters worse, the country is now posting an annual budget deficit of 10% of GDP which is the highest in the world.

            But that’s not all. Now there is word China is dipping into its massive arsenal of exchange reserves to offset capital outflows and stabilize the Yuan. I always said they can only spend that money once. Ambrose asserts China is now a net seller of securities as liquidity is drying up and the budget gets squeezed on falling demand for land and the associated revenues.

            So this is all going to come down to taxation in the end. If the chart is any indication of the trouble that lies ahead as the housing bust gains speed there will need to be drastic changes made to the tax structure or the country is heading into trouble.

            Ambrose further notes that current fiscal tightening actually risks a depression there.

            Liquidity evaporates in China as ‘fiscal cliff’ nears
            http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/11450691/Liquidity-evaporates-in-China-as-fiscal-cliff-nears.html

          Mar 04, 2015 04:26 PM

          All the permabulls, Morgan, Sinclair, Schiff, Sprott, etc. have all been so discredited by now, they have no audience.

          I hate to say it but that is how it seems to me. If the bear market doesn’t scare you out it wears you out. Same thing for bull markets. Jason Hommel has been keeping a low profile lately as well or so it seems.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:10 PM

            I haven’t heard from Jason for a few years now.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:20 PM

        Agreed Bob UK!

      Mar 04, 2015 04:02 PM

      May be some would consider $20.67 a troy ounce far too expensive for gold. Your average citizen prefers not to think too deeply or critically on such things. On the other hand Joe six pack doesn’t seem to think there is anything wrong with six or seven figure real estate prices especially if he has a house to sell. People generally don’t think beyond the moment or beyond their own narrow self interest. Dividing the global economy by the silver bullion and or coin is way over the top for most people.
      It flies in the face of current fantasy world market prices decided by that small group of dominant men. For many if the government and media say it is so then it is so regardless of evidence to the contrary or the science of mathematics.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:17 PM

        Great comment, Steven!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:17 AM

    Last night I said that it was positive that Claude finished the day on a high note. Today, that strength is following through and it is up another 6.76% (U.S.). Like I said two days ago, if gold catches a bid, look out.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p18018390770&a=396899698&listNum=1

      Mar 04, 2015 04:22 PM

      Please e-mail me your address. (al@kereport.com) It will go nowhere except to Glenfidish who wants to ask you a question.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:21 AM

    It appears bullion banks repeatedly penetrate $1200. I cannot remember how many times it happened for the last couple of years especially last few weeks. What they hope is avalanche induced by key support level like 1200 due to stop loss selling. Obviously it is not working. This makes me wonder whether they are trying to cover. At same time they want to smash silver under 16 and they have hard time to do it. This repeated penetration of 1200 might also be intended to induce silver slide. I know they have added a lot of silver shorts during January. These manipulations are so obvious that as long as you are not totally numb, you can see the sequence. I remember in the old days, you have to see the data weeks after to get a sense.

    According to Chris Powell, he attended the hearing for silver manipulation investigation. In the hearing US attorney said that no only the actions which were presented are legal but they can do anything US FED Determines to be necessary to intervene in financial market according to federal reserve act. So the verdict was that illegal activities was not found in stead not guilty of the accused actions. Off course, it is because there is no law for them to obey.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:50 AM

      It could be just a wishful thinking… Mar 20 is when new electronic gold fixing is up and which involves more Eastern participants + should align more with physical demand… just my wishful thinking… although I still think as long as China, not just US, wants lower gold price to accumulate… I will be more happy not to expect much from PM.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:15 PM

        I wonder what China’s government thinks of the buying and selling of gold and silver that does not exist except as a piece of paper or data in a computer? Would they grab the cheese dicks that would do such trading and shoot them in the head and send the bill for the bullets to the next of kin? What do you all think? Your family spent some time in China Al. Is executing naked long and short traders in precious metals something that the Chinese government would do?

          Mar 04, 2015 04:32 PM

          For now, they have to have gold in Shanghai vault to place an order. They started futures not long ago and I am not sure what the rule is. Since around 20% trade result in delievery so not having real gold is very risky there. Also the demand is mostly in the form of jewelry so it is hard to do without metal.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:15 PM

          My grandparents left in 1949!

            Mar 04, 2015 04:39 PM

            The year the old rulling National Party lost and fled to Taiwan. They are the one who confiscated gold and created big rich and poor division. Four families control the whole finance of large country. They also ran into hyperinflation. A terrible government. Hate it more than communist party.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:41 PM

            Not only finance, it is actually the whole economy.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:58 AM

      We are seeing gold probing below 1200 now. And silver has already broken down which tells me gold is indeed set for another decline. Bad news for the bulls. But no surprise either.

        Mar 05, 2015 05:01 AM

        Both GDX and GDXJ have also broken down. We only await gold at this point.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:30 AM

    Good one Bobby!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:31 AM

    Speaking of Doctors; where is he at?

      Mar 04, 2015 04:34 AM

      And Rick too. Both are missing in action.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:24 PM

        Rick was out of range until today. His editorial is now up.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:23 PM

      We are doing a Daily Editorial in about 1/2 hour.

    LPG
    Mar 04, 2015 04:32 AM

    Hope everyone’s well.

    Al mentioned something which kind of caught my attention:
    Quote: “I just don’t see how these markets can do well right now given what’s going on…[…] with the latest out of Greece… […] and the situation in the Middle-East.. […]”

    I think that one of the flaws people make in investing, as for driving, is to concentrate on the “here & now” as opposed to trying to anticipate the future and its possible outcomes.
    Concentrating on the here and now is likely to result in:
    1) missed opportunities in investing (being struck in slow lanes while driving) and
    2) facing with severe market corrections while being heavily invested (while driving, this corresponds to having an accident).

    Financial markets, (free or not), are discounting mechanisms. In that sense, they reflect expectations, not the “here and now”.
    I understand some of us will argue/object that “markets aren’t free anymore !!!”, but I will kindly respond that fwiw, they are STILL discount mechanisms (ie the fact that they are not free doesn’t mean that they don’t function the same way).

    As a consequence, good investing, as for good driving, is about anticipating the future. Not focusing on the here and now.

    The “painful” and dangerous (dangerous in an investment context) consequence og focusing on the here and now is that EMOTIONS always take a center stage – because the mind’s attention is focused on the here and now.
    So it’s almost like every move of “the today” – because it was not anticipated – becomes something.
    When the move of “the today” has NOT been anticipated but on top of that is going against the investment positioning of the investor (for ex: one is long gold and one day gold is slammed), then the emotions take over, and the mind freezes in shock (fear takes over).
    In a worst case scenario of emotions taking over the mind and the brain, the investor takes action which are THE OPPOSITE of the ones he “should” take. He will, for ex. stay away from low low low(er) prices (while he shall start to buy) or will be inclined/eager to buy when prices are up up up (while he should trim/sell his holdings).

    Investing in a painful emotional exercise. Having a plan (and a plan after the plan) helps removing the emotions, while ALSO, helps focusing on the future, not the “here and now” nor the “today”.

    My 2 cts.

    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      Mar 04, 2015 04:35 AM

      LPG,
      Great post. Thanks. Something I definitely sometimes forget. I need these reminders that the markets are about expectations. What really helps me is just to be balanced and diversified, and not be transfixed always watching every day. And not trading much helps me. Just walking away and ignoring helps with the emotions.

        LPG
        Mar 04, 2015 04:15 AM

        You are welcome Derek.

        One thing I’ve realized overtime is that when doing the right thing when sentiment (and hence price action) are at extremes, things take care of themselves on their own typically. That’s why I like extremes because risk/rewards are in your favor.

        In between extremes, when things are in muddy waters, the odds are less in your favour, and most of the time, there’s nothing wrong in doing nothing. Doing nothing, when it is a deliberate decision, is also an investment decision.
        Incidentally, this is what Avi Gilburt mentioned on the WE show when he said that these days, he is basically sitting on his hands…

        Best to you, and GL to all investing/trading.

        LPG

          LPG
          Mar 04, 2015 04:17 AM

          Typo in the first sentence:
          Should read:
          “… when sentiment IS at extremes”.
          Apologies.
          LPG

        Mar 04, 2015 04:26 PM

        Markets are to a large extent about expectations in my mind.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:25 PM

      Re: Greek situation, I was referring to European stocks.

    bb
    Mar 04, 2015 04:34 AM

    Lawrence, LBJ in 1965? told everyone they control the price.
    Its just taken this long for people to figure out we are living in a “managed” world.

    I refer to George Carlin, they own everything, they got a club, and you aint in it, they got ya by the B@##$.
    At least we have flush toilets now. So we are being treated better these days.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:02 AM

      Unfortunately true but never to this degree. This intervention will distort the system and weaken the manipulator. This is how communism failed in USSR and China. You cannot imagine how bad the long term effects are. It could send US to third world or even worse due to the huge dollar stockpiles and massive debt.

        bb
        Mar 04, 2015 04:21 AM

        That’s true Lawrence, except I figure it has been to this degree since they killed Kennedy( maybe even sooner). We just didn’t know it, now, it gets really obvious due to debt and the internet.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:28 PM

          I would venture to guess that we know a lot more today than we did in the early sixties.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:27 PM

      I gotta say bb, I still have long term faith in humanity!

        LPG
        Mar 04, 2015 04:01 PM

        +1 on faith in humanity Al.

        Although I gotta say that I believe most of those who “rule” probably don’t really have the sense of “humanity” that you an I like to see displayed by human beings.
        Here’s therefore the ‘issue’, IMHO.

        My 2cts.

        LPG

    Mar 04, 2015 04:53 AM

    In the conventional stocks it looks like people are buying even the smallest of dips?

    Will the markets be allowed any meaningful correction?

      Mar 04, 2015 04:35 PM

      Bob conventional markets are on steroids period! Everyone I see and talk to have a big orgy of where stocks are going. Have you ever heard this phrase before? To Da Moon? 🙂

        Mar 04, 2015 04:15 PM

        To this point, Armstrong talks of a possible phase transition as he terms it, in 2017. With the Dow going first to the 23,000 to 25,000 range. Then if it clears that, he says the next level is 40,000. Wow! All after first having a fake out correction period.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:32 PM

          My understanding was 2015.75 was transition and 20,000 dow this year but he did not guarantee a 23,000-25,000. Well i don’t think there are any guarantees unless your name is cyrstal ball 🙂

          If that is the case derek then the u.s dream is alive and kicking.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:00 PM

            Yes, he did not guarantee, but indicated possible. With what he calls big bang, sovereign debt defaults, he expects loads of capital to flee public (sovereign bonds) and into private (stocks). Maybe I misinterpreted and he wrote transition beginning at 2015.75 and continuing into 2017. But I tell you I have to read his stuff several times to have a chance of deciphering what he means – I do not think he writes very well

            Mar 04, 2015 04:35 PM

            For years, my target for the Dow has been over 19,000 simply based on the plunge of 2008. Specifically, I come up with 19,900 +/- 680.

            Mar 04, 2015 04:14 PM

            Derek,

            Im totally with you on trying to digest his material. His computer is quite unique as well. Sometimes I think what he says is more confusing then anything. Not that he is wrong.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:14 PM

          I guess that anything is possible, Derek!

        Mar 04, 2015 04:23 PM

        No, what does “To Da Moon” mean? Are you talking about Reverend Moon or Van Morrison’s Moon Dance!

          LFP
          Mar 05, 2015 05:06 AM

          ”…what does “To Da Moon” mean? Are you talking about Reverend Moon or Van Morrison’s Moon Dance!…”

          Neither / either, OwlMeister 🙂

          glenfidish is referring to Jackie Gleason & ”Alice”, who co-starred as his wife, in the 1950’s super-popular TV serial sit-com (B&W-only) titled ”The Honeymooners”
          [Lots of TH vids are viewable on YouTube].
          “To Da Moon” was one of Gleason’s ”trademarked” expressions ”…to d’ah moon, Alice…’, recurring through various episodes of the series.

          Alice was born in NY city as Audrey Cotter [in the TH series appearances, she was re-labelled as ”Audrey Meadows”]
          Shortly after her birth, her parents, being missionaries, re-located the entire family to mainland China and, subsequently, returned to the US within less than a decade of their having relocated to China.
          Approximately 20 years ago Alice died in California of pulmonary cancer so she, metaphorically speaking, did go ”to da moon” (albeit its dark side).

          Gleason, apart from the immensely popular ”Honeymooners” series, was a relatively successful bandleader, recording artist, and a very good jazz trumpeter.
          In 1987, he died of colon cancer that had metastisized to his liver (peculiar, given that he was a 4-pack-a-day smoker).

          P.S.: Al, did you manage to contact Harvey Organ? If not, try through the silverdoc site’s forums, where he posted recently (due to the Google fiasco). If that doesn’t succeed, let me know, as he infrequently drops into a Toronto coin dealer, whose owner I have intermittently dealt with on various occasions. BR- LFP.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:25 AM

    There is a guy called Clive Maund who writes a monthly article each on gold and silver which I enjoy reading. No idea how good or accurate he is. But I enjoy his charts and reading his thoughts.

    I notice that he has recently posted 2 articles each titled ‘Preparing for the Crash’ Parts 1 & 2 with, today, the second part posted listing 15 bear ETFs.

    I have no idea what or why he thinks things are about to go bad – the articles are behind a pay wall – but I imagine he must think things are close to going tits up if he is going to the trouble of now highlighting ETFs that will benefit in a crash.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:51 AM

      Almost all the analysts assume we still have a free market so their conclusion is always off. I think the market is over extended compared to normal times but we are in ZIRP. The market tried in 2014 and 2012 to have meaningful correction but it was immediately stopped by verbal and behind the scene interventions. What’s funny is places like KWN who recognizes the manipulation and somehow they feel a big crash is coming.If we look at the DOW chart from 2009 and we can see an almost perfect straight line with a few ripples. If you compare it with hidstoric charts, it looked so artificial. No free market can be so perfect.

        bb
        Mar 04, 2015 04:54 AM

        I think anyone that can should own a little of an etf that is “down dow”.
        Surely a crash happens sooner or later.
        I would but I only trade the Canadian market, wish there was an option other than moving to other markets.

          Mar 04, 2015 04:16 AM

          I own some mutual fund of S&P large cap. I used to have more but I was expecting some correction last summer/fall but never materialized. So I lost some position since last spring. Too bad. I should have believed my own manipulation theory with more conviction. I was thinking they may want to have a significant correction so most of pension funds which have been on the sidelines since 2009 can get on board. But they seems not wanting my strategy 🙂

    Mar 04, 2015 04:45 AM

    Hi Al,
    Will Doc be on today. Interested to hear his thoughts on the action in gold and miners. I figured we found a temporary bottom, but now that case seems to be in question.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:30 PM

      About 1/2 hour from now Doc Fan

        Mar 04, 2015 04:45 PM

        Thanks Al!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:50 AM

    Fed beige book in few minutes at 2 PM EST. Interested to see what effects it has on markets.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:19 AM

      FED seems the only dancer on stage with everyone watching. China used to have a central planning committee doing this sort of central pannning activity to steer the contry the way they want.

        Mar 04, 2015 04:43 PM

        Is there stripping involved in this dance?

          Mar 04, 2015 04:20 PM

          Now which dance would you be talking about Bird?

        Mar 04, 2015 04:45 PM

        Wait wait…I take that back. No naked Fed Chairs please!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:41 AM

    Before we write off gold take a look at Altius….up 9% sans news just blew past its 200 day. Not sayin Gary is way off here but there are some solid players out there looking good today. Kirkland lake is holding nicely too.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:30 PM

      Of course there are some very solid players out there, Confused!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:51 PM

    I am thinking that Victoria Gold will be bought in 2015 (US$0.25)
    Of course, Gold canyon is on everybody’s list for M&A.
    Alexco could also be part of a M&A if someone would pay $1/ounce reserves.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:17 PM

      More on Gold Canyon on the upcoming Weekend Show, Brian.

    Mar 04, 2015 04:20 PM

    ******* NO SINCE LOOKING AT THE PRICE FOR ATLEASE THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FOR GOLD *******
    These guys are just going to continue RIGGING the price DOWN to and around 1200.
    Big Al, Gary, Chris, DOC and the rest of you ………..I know you mean well but you might as well go on a little hiatus until then………they are not going to let the PRICE RISE.
    They’ve go their ORDERS and that is it for RIGHT NOW.

      Mar 04, 2015 04:12 PM

      Mark,

      We do discuss issues other than gold. Thank God!

    Mar 04, 2015 04:38 PM

    I bought a $500 bull position on gold today as a hedge against my $1,000 bear position. Cheer up Gold Bug Gary. We might see a small pop for a little sculp action on gold.

    Mar 05, 2015 05:58 AM

    A lower than expected US non farm jobs number on Friday could be the catalyst that gold needs or was it the full moon in the solar lunar cycle? I dont think it matters much gold is headed lower.

      Mar 05, 2015 05:04 AM

      Agree. Its destiny is still down.