Minimize

Welcome!

Friday and The Doctor is Definitely In

Big Al
March 6, 2015

Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show

Discussion
75 Comments
    bb
    Mar 06, 2015 06:35 AM

    Doc said ” get away from gold??”
    I was still waiting for the bounce.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:43 AM

      He said until April.

        APRIL FOOLS DAY…………..

          SHAKE OUT TIME……………

          Mar 06, 2015 06:07 PM

          I diversified out of many of mining stocks in Jan and Feb, anticipating the PDAC curse in March and now we have it. I’m not sure why this was a surprise as March and May are seasonally rough months for the PMs, but this coincides with the bottom in commodities we expected in the spring/summer in the whole commodity complex.

          What was odd is how weak February was, when it is seasonally a great month for gold/silver, and the PMs really missed their chance to turn the tide in late Jan/early Feb to continue the run up that was fueled off the November lows and then accelerated with the Swiss unpegging; and Canadian/Australian/New Zeland rate cuts in January. The currency wars were ramping up, but then Gold failed to have a brief correction and keep going higher.

          Since March and May are typically bearish for the metals, it is possible there could be an upswing in April in between the carnage. It seems most likely that the gold market will whipsaw and grind downwards towards the lower targets at 1137 and 1130. If those don’t hold, then 1044.70 is next support. That should be an excellent buying opportunity, but it is when few will have the gonads to buy during the bloodbath phase.

            Mar 06, 2015 06:25 PM

            “….few will have the gonads to buy during the bloodbath phase”. — Shad
            —————

            If I had a nickel for every time someone made a comment along those lines for the past four years! Hahahaha. Come on Shad! If guts and gonads was all it took we would all be billionaires. Contrarians mostly get killed in case you did not know. Most never make the front pages or get any fame and accolades because they usually get wiped out with their…….uh….contrarian bets.

            Like I often say….just because it is cheap does not mean it cannot be cheaper yet.

            You need a lot more information than just that “there is blood in the streets”.

            Mar 06, 2015 06:25 PM

            Hey Bird. I have not ever said to buy at the bottom of the cycle for the entire bear market in Gold since 2011, because calling bottoms is a terrible game to play. However, based on longer term monthly and annual charts, I really see this bottoming in the spring & summer as the “Major” bottom, and believe it will be ugly and the end of the 4 year bear in PMs.

            After this prolonged bottoming over the next few months washes out sentiment, I believe the the second half of 2015, 2016, and 2017 will be a gradual rise in Gold, Silver, and the PGMs. I have been pretty consistent since last year that this 2015 spring/summer is likely when the CRB and the whole commodity complex will be bottoming (base metals like copper, Nickel, Tin, and in particular Zinc, soft commodities, rare earths, Uranium, and of course Oil & Nat gas).

            I just think this will be the point where many hardened gold bugs will give up in despair, and that is what I am calling the “blood in the streets” phase. It will likely be the worst sentiment in the space by late spring/early summer, and that is why it will take big gonads to be the contrarian. : – )

            Mar 06, 2015 06:32 PM

            I do agree with you though that too many people have over-used the blood in the streets phase, and have called the bottom prematurely. When the correction started in 2011 and demonstrated it was going to be a bear market and not just a correction, most of the seasoned traders I respect felt it would last 3 maybe 4 years. We are not at that point where the spot prices are down at the cost of production, and that is why the window of time coming up will unique. I have never jumped on the idea of a “Major” bottom until now because I wanted to see 3-4 years of the bear play out. Now it has. I have however, targeted short term swing-trade bottoms throughout the cycle and gone long on the way up, but actually shorted gold more often than not over the last few years. I am about ready to go mostly long in May/June as an overall position.

            I do understand your skepticism though, and too many gold bugs wanted the bottom to come in 2012, 2013, and 2014. The first time I actually got excited was in January, because I thought that could have been the turn. When gold didn’t keep the trend up in early Feb, I realized that we had the slow grind down into the PDAC March curse, and the “Sell in May” syndrome to deal with before we finally bottom.

            That is just my 2 cents and one opinion in the wilderness! However, I have been waiting a long time for us to get to this point, and do think it will be volatile and a turbulent period.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:11 PM

        Big Al,

        Then right after April the market will have the good ole “it’s May and go away” phenomenon to deal with.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:04 PM

      BB; I was hoping for a greater “bounce” then the feeble one we got about 8 days ago—-I pretty much knew it wouldn’t be lasting since the PM stocks were looking so vulnerable. This spring isn’t going to be friendly to gold but the final washout for some of the PM stocks should take place. Claude is also going to be correcting now for some time but then should be a good purchase along with Richmond——not investment advice.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:10 PM

        I agree Doc. I also sold out of Claude a little too soon at $.41 US (averaged in at $.28 US). After it went to $.45 US I was kicking myself, but hey there is no shame in booking profits, and I think they’ll be another buying opportunity over the next month that should be a good time to cherry pick the best stocks.

    cmc
    Mar 06, 2015 06:42 AM

    Yeah, I was anticipating a “bounce” too earlier this week. Got stopped out, fortunately before the bottom fell out today. Now I’m out, and fed up for now.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:44 AM

      Don’t get fed up, get smart. (Not that you aren’t smart already!)

        Mar 06, 2015 06:00 PM

        That’s the sentiment i’m looking for. When people will get basement depressed im in but that’s not YET. lol

        cmc
        Mar 06, 2015 06:17 PM

        Thanks, Al. I eyeing the place where the Fed has my back.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:52 AM

    Hi Doc,

    I am looking at my watch list of stocks and every one is red right now apart from one green – XON.

    That bio tech is one that people seemingly can’t get enough of. Still about a 30% short position on it apparently.

      CFS
      Mar 06, 2015 06:02 PM

      The three analysts that follow XON all have a strong buy recommendation.

      50.01 RTB 0.51 (+1.03%) Volume: 1.07m 2:56 PM EST Mar 6, 2015
      Current Target Price:

      High Target Price Estimate 65.00
      Low Target Price Estimate 45.00
      Mean Target Price Estimate 53.33
      Standard Deviation 10.41
      Date of Most Recent Estimate 03/03/15

      Target Price History:
      Current 1 Week Ago 2 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago

      High Target Price Estimate 65.00 65.00 40.00 40.00

      Low Target Price Estimate 45.00 28.00 28.00 28.00

      Mean Target Price Estimate 53.33 46.50 34.00 34.00

      Date of Most Recent Estimates 03/03/15 02/23/15 01/06/15 01/06/15

        Mar 06, 2015 06:05 PM

        Thanks CFS – I just want a dip before buying but it seems it is not coming.

        I was hoping that the results last Monday would take it from 40 back down to 35ish and, being greedy, even 30. Instead it soared up.

        Still a massive short position on it though from what I have read… but if the shorts can’t take it down ONE CENT on a day like today when can they?

          Mar 06, 2015 06:08 PM

          Great point, Bob—–it shows how strong that stock really is.

        CFS
        Mar 06, 2015 06:42 PM

        I still prefer ETFs in this area:
        Biotech/Big Pharma ETFs include:
        IBB, BBH, XPH, HQH, XBI.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:07 PM

      Bob, the XON is unrelenting. I just don’t like to add further at these levels and will wait for a pullback. The dailies don’t show it yet but I’ve learned my lessons in the past not to chase.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:14 PM

        Thanks Doc.

        I too want a pullback and would not be happy chasing this now… really thought today would have been it though.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:57 AM

    Bob UK,

    Take a look at our “Weekly Review” which will be going out later today.

    Al

      Mar 06, 2015 06:06 PM

      Will do Al.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:59 AM

    can you spare a longer interview w doc…. that was too brief

    CORY…………I THINK LAWRENCE SAID…………the take down was several minutes before the NEWS HIT……………

    I AGREE WITH AL……..on China..and the unraveling of US Economy………………………………j

    Mar 06, 2015 06:26 PM

    Al -you can include India yes??

    Mar 06, 2015 06:37 PM

    Doc- you are much brighter than I but some juniors look bottomed out here.There is Apples gold watch announcement on Monday.. there is the new gold fix market on March 20. Supposedly adding more transparency to the gold market where China will have more clout. THe world may be tired of the West running gold..

      Mar 06, 2015 06:26 PM

      Agatha, I don’t think I’m any brighter then anyone else—-I find you and others on this site to really challenge me with the knowledge you come out with. I would be very careful here to take a position due to some of the technicals. You may get a short term bounce and then lower prices. Often a drop this size in gold results in some consolidation and then one more lower move. Just be careful here—-you might like to look at the monthly charts for some of the PMs. I’ll take a position in some technically if they’re already trading in a range where the bollinger bands are moving laterally along with their 20 month MA. When the pricing hits the lower BB, I’ll then take a position since the momentum of that lower BB is not turning down. This isn’t investment advice but look at AUQ and HL monthly charts for an example. I’ll purchase when the pricing gets very close to the lower monthly BB. If you notice, their monthly BBs are trending sideways and not tilted down. If I purchase at the lower BB and the pricing starts to break down below the lower BB, I’ll exit the position with minimal loss.

    Tom
    Mar 06, 2015 06:51 PM

    Gary said miners have put in their low for the bear market. Gary is never wrong.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:45 PM

    On March 4 Matthew says: “I just bought GDXJ at 25.38 and added to two other junior miner positions”.

    Glenfidish says: “For a day trade or weekly trade”?

    Matthew says: “Don’t know yet how long I’ll be in the trade. Hopefully a long time” 🙂

    Birdman says: “What a chart guy you are Matthew! Too clever by a mile. But it seems you let your bias and heart rule that trade rather than common sense and a careful study of the chart”.

    Matthew says: “No matter what happens going forward, buying at yesterday’s lows was not before it STARTED falling; it was after. What an NPD buffoon”.

    Birdman says: “You posted the buy price, I didn’t. And then it almost immediately fell to 25.10 so I guess you are not quite the charting guy you would like us all to believe”.

    Matthew says: Lol!!! What a complete fool you are.
    ——————–

    Yes…he is right. I am a fool to even talk to him. The funny thing is that Matthew said he went long and told everyone here he was a GDXJ buyer just as the 20 and 50 day were in a crossover and ANY good technical person would have known that GDXJ was about to fall.

    So what do you make of that? Was he being dishonest or was he just tired and making a mistake?

    Personally I find it suspect. Just like his bull talk on IAG as it was about to make a face plant. You Matthew followers had best be careful because it is becoming apparent to me he is leading some of you astray with his non-stop bullishness.

    But you know what, I am going to leave it to readers to decide for themselves. Go back and look at the recent history of charts and comments that he puts up and then follow along with what happened afterwards.

    This guy is really the WORST chart technician I have ever run across. Join his fan club at your peril.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:19 PM

      OK. Drop your shoulders – you’re holding too much tension in them. Right, ready? Breath in… Hold…. and out! Relax.

      There, doesn’t that feel better.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:32 PM

        Whew…that felt good Bob. Thanks.

        The gold-tards make me crazy though. If they had not been so unrelentingly insulting to me for the past few years I might not have even bothered mentioning any of this. But the fact is they were wrong. wrong, wrong all the way down and not one of them ever comes back to admit it or ask forgiveness from the people that they worked so hard to convince.

        This guy has been on a real mission though. One day I will post a selection of his bad calls on gold to prove my point beyond a shadow of a doubt.

          Mar 06, 2015 06:47 PM

          I think you need to let it go and just take satisfaction in that you feel vindicated. Life is too short to be angry at strangers on the internet.

          bb
          Mar 06, 2015 06:47 PM

          Well other than a personal thing I don’t know why you would Bird.
          Years ago now? People were totally attacking you for your position. HH tried to get you banned (gold up up up god is on our side)and this site got JJ expelled, at least he realised it wasn’t worth the effort.
          Anyway, no, you have not been 100% correct on individual calls, so? who is?
          But you have been consistently correct about the gold trend and repeatedly correct about the timing of drops in the price.
          You have nothing to prove.

          I always figured Mathew was day trading, so basically his work doesn’t pertain to me, so I never followed it.
          I just assumed it was correct for some people, he just got one right, Claude maybe? I forget.
          Anyway, you have nothing to prove Bird, just keep up with the comments, much appreciated by me at least.

            Mar 06, 2015 06:11 PM

            No, bb, not a day trader, an active trader and speculator. Contrary to what Bird and your own lack of understanding would have you believe, I was very happy about today and made 26 trades. I doubled my money on the VXX calls that I mentioned buying yesterday and some of the juniors I was buying recently did not go lower today as BM implies. As for GDXJ, I bought more today along with SGDM at 17.09. Both could and probably will head a little lower on Monday and if they do I will buy more still.

            Remember XOP? Of course you don’t. I bought it recently starting at around $45 and down to $43.28. Then it turned went as high as 53.56 in just 7 sessions. GDXJ today is no different, it’s a bargain at $25 and it’s a bargain at $23. I trade a lot, but the vast majority of my positions are not traded often. I had plenty of Claude to sell more of today when it went back up to .40-.42 U.S. and I still have a lot more to sell should it continue to outperform.

            I love how the peanut gallery is full of people who ask no questions and make no effort to learn or understand but always assume they know what they are talking about when they criticize.

            Mar 06, 2015 06:42 PM

            Seven hours to come up with a response. Must be some kind of a record. Thanks for treating us to the usual fluff where in your little world it is always winning trades and never a loser. You think we cannot see through you?

            bb
            Mar 07, 2015 07:02 AM

            Well, I always thought you to be a day trader, 26 trades in a day sounds like it to me tho.
            My mistake I guess.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:10 AM

            I knew a guy like him once bb and he traded himself right into bankruptcy. But you would have never known for all the bulls*t and bluster he put on show in the bar after markets closed each day. We all figured he was the biggest of winners with all the cock-crowing he did until one day he did not show up anymore. The bar got a lot quieter and the free drinks stopped coming. Turns out he was a prolific liar and a gambler. He made some really big bets and won a few but in the end he was as broke as a those guys you see begging for change. Lost the houses, cars, antiques, boat…..everything. Pride does that. It will not allow genuine self analysis that permits a trader to correct his errors and change tack. Those guys just need to be right at all costs even if it means going down in flames.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:22 AM

            Btw bb, that many trades on a serious down day like we saw yesterday is the result of a scramble to escape losing positions and limit the losses. Everything got hit. Bonds, stocks, gold, silver, currencies….the works. And it looks like it is not over either. The high number of trades is nothing to be impressed by. He was simply in a panic to unload because of all the bets gone sour and as you know he plays highly levered as he is an options guy. It had to hurt.

            bb
            Mar 07, 2015 07:35 AM

            Well, I just kinda do my own thing, Im really not concerned with what other people do. my trading “sucks” really, but Im the first to admit I need the raging bull to make money in these markets.
            I could go with the % and take small wins I suppose, or just play the dividend payers, but I just love rolling those dice. lol

            bb
            Mar 07, 2015 07:39 AM

            I should reconcider going short gold on occasion, its just the risk/reward doesn’t add up for me.
            Comes from playing cards, you never make the draw without the pot offering the right odds.
            After answering the question, “Will it win if I hit?”
            Going short seems you need bet 10 to make maybe 1, just doesn’t feel right.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:55 AM

            It’s been a whole lot easier than going long bb. The trend is your friend as they say even if the trend is down. DUST was up some 23% in a single day yesterday so that was a decent payoff and it allowed you to be wrong a few times before getting ti right and still come out far ahead. Beat 1% posted rates in the banks anyway!

            Mar 07, 2015 07:10 AM

            Btw…take note of that triple bottom on DUST. It is telling us something valuable.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:41 AM

            Matt,

            I for one respect your calls and know that you don’t sit around twirling your fingers.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:45 AM

            I just want to add a thing or two of what I think the new era of Investors/traders are.

            I use to be a buy and hold guy but we all know where that can go. I like many many investors now have opened up a second portfolio 2 years ago. Long term/short term ( which can be 1 day-3months). This method is not something new only that it is growing tremendously. People don’t want to wait 5 years for a return. Now you can cut your cake and eat it at the same time.

            Hope this helps.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:41 PM

        Notice he has not been here all day btw?

        It’s 2:37 in the afternoon PST and not a single word from that guy despite the fact he virtually NEVER misses a chance to insult me on any given day. But then he did just load up on all those GDXJ calls precisely before the huge decline and probably needs to explain it to nurse who supports the gambling habit!!!

        Whatever. He will be back tomorrow. Tail between his legs and trying to suck more people into buying the “dip”…..cause its always about buying dips during a bear market!…of course.

          Mar 06, 2015 06:12 PM

          Very busy day today, Bird, but a pretender like yourself wouldn’t know that.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:01 AM

            Pretender, jackass, idiot, complete fool, NPD Buffoon……..

            You really need to stop insulting people Matthew. That little sampler above is just a small fraction of the expression of your deep hatreds and repeated disrespect you show for anyone who does not get on your pathetic little gold wagon.

            Mar 07, 2015 07:52 AM

            Bird,

            seriously move on with the rant and anger its disgusting already. I think we all get your point. Does your wife know you spend all day on a computer ridiculing people and baiting them into heating discussions? I bet not.

            Be a fucking man and let it go already it’s annoying. I much rather you meet matt in person put the gloves on and deal with this once and for all instead of the rest of us having to hear this day in day out.

            Mar 09, 2015 09:50 PM

            Emotions often times run high Glenfidish. A person’s mood is an interesting thing. Trust me because I know from personal experience.

            I think that controversy is a good thing as is discussion of the controversy.

            I would like all of us to be a little less emotional.

            Best to you, Glen.

          Mar 06, 2015 06:16 PM

          Btw, only a jackass like you thinks I am trying to get people to buy anything. I share what I do and what I think and don’t care if anyone does anything at all about it. Damn you’re obnoxious.

            Mar 06, 2015 06:43 PM

            Your technical’s stink man!

    Mar 06, 2015 06:49 PM

    295,000 JOBS CREATED FOR THE MONTH OF FEB…………HUH………..I really think that at this point, they are just testing the American people to see how many lies they can tell and get away with………..they know that the people don’t question anything anymore.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:27 PM

      58,000 WERE BAR TENDERS……….

      Mar 06, 2015 06:00 PM

      They did not count ~93% of the job loss in energy sector according to zerohedge. A couple of thousand cannot be close to reality. Baker Hughs alone is more than that.

        Mar 06, 2015 06:47 PM

        Maybe they should follow along with the lead in England where the underground economy is now included in GDP. If they did that then there would be millions of new jobs created overnight as gun-runners, prostitutes, drug dealers, career gamblers and full time thieves came to be included in the statistics.

        It would be an economic renaissance! 🙂

    bb
    Mar 06, 2015 06:05 PM

    Mark, few ever question anything, they simply believe as they are told to believe.
    Finally, In Canada, some people have realised the jobs being created here are part time low income and the jobs being lost are full time.
    Discussions have finally begun about how to deal with it.
    I still think until currency devaluation is dealt with these discussion wont end, nor will the situation, but people will probably put their hopes on new technologies for awhile.
    I wonder how long it will take for people to understand the root causes of the issue.
    Heck, the whole situation could simply be the military industrial complex.
    Ron Paul and Paul Craig Roberts could have it figured out already and people simply refuse to listen. Just human nature maybe.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:19 PM

    It sounds like there are windchimes on Doc’s commentary. We need audio relaxation therapy, that’s for sure!

      Mar 06, 2015 06:14 PM

      Dave, very astute plus you have outstanding hearing.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:46 PM

    I think that when shale oil production takes a tumble the the dollar will take a drop. If there is a temporary breakdown in oil production, I reckon that the dollar might take a correction and then, after the setback (perhaps on credit failures in the sector) the dollar will take another leg up as shale production comes back for a second bit of the cherry.
    I am watching the shale oil and gas production forecasts, some say peaks in 2016, some say 2020 or after, esp. for the tight oil. The dollar’s fate will rest on this, in my view.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:50 PM

    HSBC…………….closing all GOLD VAULTS IN LONDON……………..kwn

    Mar 06, 2015 06:16 PM

    COT commercials for this week don’t show much change in the silver contract positions whereas gold shows another decrease in the short positions. Next week should be interesting especially with this drop in gold.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:28 PM

      DOC….you might read my post above………HSBC is closing it’s gold vaults….j…

        Mar 06, 2015 06:09 PM

        I did; I’m sure we’ll get some followup on that article. In spite of what’s happening in the PM market, I will continue to over time purchase the PMs since as the saying goes: this will not end well. I believe strongly that we will begin to see a turn in about 11/2 years.

    Mar 06, 2015 06:22 PM

    “Like I often say….just because it is cheap does not mean it cannot be cheaper yet.”

    Birdman those cheap prices are for pieces of paper with silver or gold ounces written on them with the theoretical ounces deliverable at a set date at a set price and some times the contracts are settled for metal but most of the time for cash or are rolled over. It is just a paper trade and not really a metal trade most of the time. So if push come to shove what does one have to pay to get metal when there are too few sellers? Answer : more than the paper price. Under the right conditions metal owners will refuse to have the paper price dictated to them. Many of them are not parties to these futures contracts and therefore can not be bound to their terms.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:56 PM

      I was referring to gold stocks Steven.

    bb
    Mar 06, 2015 06:26 PM

    CIA whistleblower, Jeffrey Sterling, now faces up to 100 years in prison and a fine of $2.25 million for blowing the whistle on the CIA planting false evidence of nuclear weapons in Iran. This demonstrates how corrupt the government is. They will start wars for personal gain and lie to the people each and every time. Obama promised he would be honorable and “protect” whistleblowers from prosecution and punishment, Just another crock of bullshit. He is due in court April 24th

    Bob Moriarity might like this.

      Mar 06, 2015 06:41 PM

      crock is correct………we have talking about this for several years now…….when will the people say enough …………….

    bb
    Mar 06, 2015 06:08 PM

    Not sure they will ever say “enough”, personally I think the system will have to collapse, enough nations drop the dollar, big inflation, little to no profitable employment.
    We’ll get there. Just a matter of time.

    Mar 08, 2015 08:00 PM

    Monday’s telegraph headline

    ‘A mini-Greece is about to go off in Europe’s heartlands, and markets don’t even know it’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/jeremy-warner/11455671/Austria-is-fast-becoming-Europes-latest-debt-nightmare.html