Rick Ackerman and Technicals
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Agreed CFS. I’ve stated for a while that the dollar would get up to the 100-102 level before putting in short to mid-term top. I thought it would take it a little while longer though like into April/May. I also expect the commodities to get keep getting punished in price until that cycle works itself out (again spring/summer was seasonally when I expected it to happen, in correlation with the longer term monthly and yearly charts in most commodities).
I’ve also stated for a long while that March (PDAC curse) and May (sell in May and go away) have traditionally been seasonally rough months for the PMs. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a counter trend move back up in late March-April, but then the “Big Move” down will be April/May for the commodities. The miners may bottom first, and certain stocks may hold above their November/Dec 2104 lows, but it really depends on the depth and velocity of the final correction that will end the 4 year Bear in PMs.
Lastly, my thoughts on the general markets are that we may have a mini-correction, but that the blow off top won’t happen until summer and then topping into the fall for a terrible 20% correction suddenly (Sept-Oct) in the Nasdaq, Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000. By this point the dollar will be moving down and we’ll probably be back into the currency wars with the US dollar.
I just think the Dow and S&P500 are just coming off its highs. They have been at the top of its trend channel so now maybe it is going to the bottom of it. Meanwhile the DAX has broken out of a trading range and the FTSE has been rejected for the nth time (about the 8th time from its all time highs:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/the-dax-has-risen-today-while-ftse-100.html
RICK, where do you think the US dollar index will be at the top?
Looking at the chart, there are arguments for 100, 120 or 160.
previous dollar bull markets have had a breakout with a big leg up, followed by corrections, then another big leg up. We have not yet had a correction in this dollar uptrend. That suggests to me that there will be one at some point before a second leg up comparable to this one, which has been 18 points so far. That puts USDX at 120 in the spotlight.
120 will be the head..Expecting correction in dollar any second now..99?102?105? worse case..It’s coming. To many bulls on dollar.
Here is good chart. Look at the S&P 500 as priced in EUROS!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24SPX%3A%24XEU
It’s been a rocket ship.
The S&P 500 as priced in EUROS is a parabola. It has left its moving averages behind in the dust. This is getting like the Nasdaq in 1999.
Guys, I think the bull market is getting a real spanking in honor of it’s 6th birthday! 🙂
Big news coming 20th march…
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Sieron/2015-03-04-The-LBMA-Gold-Price-will-replace-the-Gold-Fixing-Price.html
Seems to be a bit of fishing around GDXJ after hours?
You mean short covering I think 🙂
I see what you did there.
Hmm, perhaps. Good point.
Features Of The New Apple Watch
stolen from here:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/features-of-the-new-apple-watch,36890/
13-megapixel camera enables users to take crystal-clear pictures of wrist
Allows wearers to start and stop the flow of time
Discreet, but not so discreet that anyone would mistake it for a regular watch
Comes in a variety of colors and styles to express your personal submission to the planet’s dominant tech company
Adjustable ticking volume
All the convenience of a traditional watch that needs to be charged every 12 hours
Built-in thinkpiece regarding the increased connectivity yet simultaneous isolation of the millennial generation
Small size and intricate circuitry able to drive twice as many Chinese workers to suicide as iPhone
Makes it easier for muggers to see whether or not you’re carrying an expensive electronic device
Another screen to throw into your current rotation of things you look at
🙁
“All the convenience of a traditional watch that needs to be charged every 12 hours”
That is a classic!
My shiny new Apple Watch – i prefer to call it iWatch – must have a malfunction.
Today it shows April First and displays this message:
“We believe that due to the combination of dollar strength, the expected worldwide deflationary environment and physical holding costs, gold bullion will soon be worth negative dollars and people will pay you to take it from their ownership. In the real world, once an old and broken car is only good for scrap it is no longer an asset, but a liability. One needs to pay cash to get an old and useless automobile towed from your property, this is the future of gold bullion.”
Thanks Otto:
http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/03/analysts-gold-set-to-drop-to-negative.html
I think Gary was right in saying for the general market that this was a drop before a bounce and later comes the big drop. i.e, a bear trap right now. My reasons to agree, since I based my beliefs on fundamentals, is the strength in the dollar. Clearly non-American people and companies are moving significant amounts of money to the US. Since stocks yield more in dividends than bonds, some of this money will be invested in stocks, supporting the market.