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How long can this run in the USD last?

March 11, 2015

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126 Comments
    LPG
    Mar 11, 2015 11:53 AM

    fwiw, Martin Armstrong has a mini-event indicated by his model due for Saturday March 14 (although he admits it’s a non-market day).
    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
    LPG

      Mar 11, 2015 11:55 AM

      I saw that. It’s what he calls Pi day 3.1415

      Mar 11, 2015 11:09 AM

      Global restructuring of currencies and platforms.
      That’s the ” event “

        Mar 11, 2015 11:32 AM

        Hunh?

          bb
          Mar 11, 2015 11:55 AM

          There are 3 different groups saying something “BIG” is going to happen, Shemita(sp) Big Bang and the Event.
          The all are supposed to happen in about Sept I believe.
          If I recall, the event is global restructuring of currencies, based on resources in the ground.
          Iraqi dollars is the clue, how a restricting in Iraq will happen with isis there is beyond me, maybe isis gets drivin out?
          If a person wants to gamble on it the risk reward is good as it stands right now anyway.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:07 AM

            Thanks bb. Too many people calling that month for my liking though. It’s jinxed. Like everyone slipped into groupthink or something. I will be cautious though since I really don’t know.

            bb
            Mar 11, 2015 11:21 AM

            The Iraqi dollar thing is interesting tho, if it worked out a small investment could make a person a gazillionare.
            How would that be for contrarian?

            Mar 11, 2015 11:11 PM

            Birdman,

            Most people calling that month is because a certain someone that is despised by some within the gold community has been saying September for quite a long time. They are just “tweaking” their calls and projections so that they can look good and smart when/if it happens.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:39 PM

            So they are just cheating on the test so to speak? I should have suspected. It just struck me as weird so many different people saying September all at once and yet I don’t have that on my radar as anything special…..well other than the Shemitah dates, the blood moons and the fact it is the month preceding October which is where the stock market often meets historical superstition…..so I guess the gold gurus have just run out of good ideas of their own?

          Mar 11, 2015 11:28 AM

          Bird,
          Asset based currencies. Asset based platforms.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:44 AM

            Thanks

      Mar 11, 2015 11:09 PM

      LPG

      Not True ! I am going to a Farmers Market that day 😉

        Mar 11, 2015 11:43 PM

        Maybe that’s the day Germany finally kicks Greece out of the Euro or somebody actually does something stupid over there. These last antics threatening to seize German assets in Greece sounded kind of desperate.

    LPG
    Mar 11, 2015 11:58 AM

    Cory mentioned silver got a nice slam today, but as of almost 12:OO noon EST, I note that some miners have had a very nice daily reversal so far, and the SIL silver stocks ETF has had it too. We’ll see what’s next.
    This is despite silver still being down 1.7% at $15.41 spot at the time of writing.
    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
    LPG

      Mar 11, 2015 11:13 AM

      Yes, I noticed strength in the miners today despite the falling metal prices. Part of the reason is how much they have come back down in the last 1-2 weeks, and part of the scenario is the de-coupling from the spot prices, because their economics and revenue have improved some with the low energy prices and beneficial currency exchange rates. The miners (especially mid-teir producers) will likely recover quicker and lead the charge on any bounce.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:20 AM

        You listen to that commentary from David Morgan by any chance. He says he has pared back his estimates of silver cost of production from 22 dollars all the way down to seventeen. That’s a big drop in just a few months since we last talked about it on this show. I have long contended that the estimate all-in costs being put out there were exaggerated because it suited the metals bulls and supported their line in the sand on price which they SWORE could not be breached. And yet here we are with silver at todays lows of 15.30 and oh my oh my it is a miracle but silver is still being mined and sold. Sarc off/

          Mar 11, 2015 11:45 AM

          🙂

          bb
          Mar 11, 2015 11:00 AM

          Of course Bird, whats the surprise?
          Silver being a by product of other metals can be adjusted quite a bit I would think.
          Maybe its the silver wheaton prices that should be taken into account?
          What they pay I mean.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:16 AM

            Well a new number changed by that amount came as a surprise to me. The estimates got pared back pretty heavily. I was getting a lot of flack back then disagreeing with those 22 and 24 dollar production costs. Like they were gospel or something because David Morgan stated them. And now lo and behold we are getting something far more realistic. The bull argument was over the top I thought. They just INSISTED mine costs were a certain number per ounce and that was all we needed to know in order to buy. They stated unequivocally that silver was at a discount to cost as high as 7 dollars for crying out loud. And in the process they suckered in a lot of newbies who did not know better. When I reminded them that silver was trading profitably at 15 dollars and less as recently as 2010 they just guffawed and mocked my comments like I was the damned fool. It really irritates me. And now David is saying that silver is basically trading at production costs at these lows. I could pull out my hair.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:22 AM

            Good points Bird & BB. I do think the cost of Gold really is around $900-$1100 for most miners, but the cost of silver for many base metal producers with a silver credit is lower than even $17. Several of the silver CEOs interviewed at the various mining shows over the last month mentioned numbers from $12-$16 as their all in costs to produce an ounce. The lower silver price will force them to go for the higher grade silver now to stay alive, which will reduce costs further. So if Silver does recover later in the year up in the $18-$21 range, then their margins should finally be enough to get a bit of revenues coming in. The currency exchange rates will also benefit the Canadian, Australian, and Asian miners.

            bb
            Mar 11, 2015 11:29 AM

            Good grief Bird, it doesn’t matter what you say people are going to call you “nuts” on these sites.
            Not you personally.
            Its up to the individual to figure out someones perspective and apply it best.
            If they want to bling themselves its up to them.
            How do you think I conclude which postings to read?
            Which is valuable which is not?
            Its that take responsibility thing.
            Just don’t get so “ticked” you stop posting. lol
            But eventually, I expect these markets to be very difficult to be “called” by anyone.

            bb
            Mar 11, 2015 11:33 AM

            Shad, the cost of silver to a zinc miner can be calculated to almost negligible.
            To some of them its an actual pain in the arse, that’s why they sell it so cheap to silver wheaton, they sometimes are just getting rid of it, they don’t want the problem.
            Its probably the same for other metals as well, in time there will be silver wheatons for those metals too I would imagine.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:38 AM

            Those are great points BB and I agree. For certain base metal miners, it is just a credit to doing business, and they sell to streaming companies much lower than the spot price because their business models are not based on silver. Then there are the silver miners that also have substantial base metal credits in zinc, lead, and copper, but they generally need a stronger silver price in the $12-$16 range.

            Silver could still come down to $12-$14 an ounce by the late spring & summer, and many miners would still survive, but not really thrive.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:51 AM

            Thanks bb…I just had to make a comment on this though because it was a big argument here some months back and its always the same guys (or their clones) making these dumb statements as if they are facts. So I got the last word and I was right! Ha!!! 🙂

            Mar 11, 2015 11:41 PM

            Bird, what is the point to investigate the cost of production, which cannot be done? Nobody will share that with you. Just look at silver miners profitability, you know how much it costs. Except SilverCorp and maybe Tahoe(?), anyone else makes money?

          bj
          Mar 11, 2015 11:29 PM

          I believe the production cost reduction estimates correlate with the decline in energy costs–and of course different operations have different overhead due to grade of ore, accessibility, etc. So when you throw them all together and divide by that number, you get a rough average.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:17 PM

          NOT Alexco, a pure silver, Canada mine. They closed down the mill and are waiting for prices to rise above $19 again.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:46 PM

            Holy sh*t…you mean there is one functional intelligent precious metals boardroom left on the planet? And here I thought they were all drunk on their own Kool Aid!!

      Mar 11, 2015 11:15 PM

      Did you see Alexco today? Up 38% on HUGE volume. The prior 2 weeks looked like a company about to go bankrupt, so maybe there is a buyout about to be announced. I’ve ALWAYS felt that the company was worth $1 per ounce of silver in the ground, or about US$0.60. So maybe that will be the “M&A” stock price?

      When they were producing silver, with a small profit, the company was worth 10 times that @ $6.50.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:29 PM

        Brian, I didn’t know that until reading your comment right now at 8:28pm be cause I had to leave my post midday. Wow. Glad I kept on buying.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:44 PM

        Yeah, I wonder what is going on with Alexco’s big move today? I saw in their December PEA that they were re configuring their cost in alignment with $18.50 silver, and have announced a number of really high-grade drill holes over the last few months. Their deposit keeps getting larger and the Flame & Moth deposit a their Keno Hill Silver District is a huge discovery story that continues to grow.

        The streaming agreement with Silver Wheaton would have to be factored into a takeover deal, but I could see the $.60-.$.80 range as fair value in the current depressed market. That is a shame to say because I remember when that stock was $9+.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:59 AM

    So we might get a dip in the US Dollar compared to other currencies – mainly the Euro – but that it will only be a short term correction before the US Dollar continues higher?

      Mar 11, 2015 11:04 AM

      Intermediate degree rallies (bear market rallies) usually last 4-6 weeks. I’m just looking for a corrective move not the end of the bear market in the euro.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:23 AM

        If you can call it Gary you get a big gold star. I have given up trying to time a dollar correction since this thing went all bull-tard. Maybe the Fed can take the steam out of the advance and talk it down during the coming FOMC but I have my doubts.

          bb
          Mar 11, 2015 11:01 AM

          I think it was Rogers about a year ago that said a trader should be learning to trade currencies, everyone else should become a farmer.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:43 AM

          I’ve had the 100-102 level for a intermediate dollar top as a target for a while now and anticipate a lot of congestion and resistance at those levels technically and sentiment-wise.

        bb
        Mar 11, 2015 11:06 AM

        I don’t know Gary, seems the rallies are getting weaker, maybe different for currencies, except gold is a currency.
        Anyway, Im shortening my expectations for rallies.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:11 AM

    Cory & Gary. Good interview as usual and good points on the intermediate cycle versus the daily cycle, bottoms and bounces, as they are very different in size and duration.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:27 AM

      And I got a good laugh about mention being made of the guys coming to this site who were mocking those who said it was best to sit on the sidelines and not get long miners right now. Where are all those bulls lately anyway. They sure went quiet since last Friday. I imagine they have eaten some ugly losses as even GDXJ is off 20% this month alone. Live and learn I suppose.

        bb
        Mar 11, 2015 11:04 AM

        No need to worry, they will be back when gold goes to da moon.
        You were right yet again Bird, short was the way to go, you sure seem to be able to call those drops.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:22 AM

          Thanks bb, I got both my calls which were first a drop to 1200 and then a retest of the lows. There should be a bounce coming though although I don’t have a pulse on it tonight. I guess that’s when the mockers will make their return. So predictable! They are dead silent during the falls but all fire and brimstone with each up day. All I can say is this….think for yourself and don’t be persuaded by the emotionalism of the bugs.

            bb
            Mar 11, 2015 11:45 AM

            We might have already had the bounce, from 1148 to 1153.
            The bounces are getting a lot weaker, and yes I am aware some people will call it a trading range.
            Im just saying its possible, we could drop again from here, excluding a big time event of course.
            But then, I really don’t have a clue.
            But my money is on down.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:58 AM

            I sold most of my mining stock positions in January, and then the rest in February when Gold couldn’t make up its mind and missed the opportunity to test higher highs. I saw the writing on the wall at that point and knew March and May would be going sub-1200. There have been a few days where I bought either JDST or JNUG for a short 1-3 swing trade but that is it for me.

            My primary focus the last few months has been in swing-trading companies in the Palladium and some Platinum miners. Companies I’ve been trading have been Stillwater – SWC, North American Palladium – PAL, Polymet – PLM, Platinum Group Metals – PLG, and Wellgreen Platinum – WGPLF). I have been in and out of all of them, and overall have done very well. I did hang onto some core positions in all of them during this most recent correction, which I regret. All in all though, the PGMs have done much better than Gold and Silver, and I have been really into the Palladium story for the last 4-5 years.

            I also have been taking positions or adding to positions in the Uranium Mining space as I expect it to decouple from the rest of the commodities earlier this Spring/Summer. Those are just my actions as of late.

            I am closely watching a number of Gold & Silver & Streaming companies to see how resilient they are in the face of the falling metals, and will likely take positions in a few this week, anticipating a top to the dollar around 100-102 and a bottom to Euro this week. Then I expect a bounce in PMs & miners and will trade in and out it.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:06 AM

        Since this bull likes to buy weakness, I’ve been very busy this week. I bought GDXJ and SGDM in increasing size about every 50-75 cents down as well as several small juniors.
        About 60 trades so far this week, most on the buy side. Good times. Anyone else do any buying? Just curious.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:28 AM

          Oh look bb, the bear is hardly cold and the pissing contest has hardly begun. Matthew smells a bottom and is first out of the gate with his little challenge. Lets see how bullish he gets in the next few days since he only makes winning trades buying miners all the way since the top. Too freaking unreal. And this is the BS that passes for intelligence from the gold-tards who would like others to believe every low is a buying opportunity yet you very rarely ever hear of a sell (and the losses that go with it).

            Mar 11, 2015 11:31 AM

            Bird, nobody knows where the bottom is. So buy on weakness is better than picking bottom. I am certain nobody is going to hit the bottom at once.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:54 AM

            I know where my bottom is………….lol

            Mar 11, 2015 11:06 AM

            Funny J….the Long. I still can’t tell the difference between my bottom and a hole in the ground : – ) Oh, wait that is not my rear quarters or a hole in the ground, it is a mine with an investor relations rep pumping it…. Maybe he’s the arse.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:08 PM

            shad the hole in the ground is where you stick you stash, , the other is where you stick your stash if you are a drug dealer.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:23 PM

            Just. Plain. Mean.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:57 PM

            You forgot stupid, Brian. The guy is just plain stupid. Did anything I say really warrant such a response from the scumbag?

            Mar 12, 2015 12:10 AM

            Lawrence, these guys have been buying on weakness and bragging about it since gold was at 1800 dollars and that means they have portfolios full of garbage if they held onto them as miners have collapsed 70, 80 and 90 percent since then.

            What do you think are the odds these bulls can keep buying during a long, severe gold bear market for four years and keep claiming they are making money when virtually everyone else was losing?

            Just as an analogy, there are professional funds out there that have failed to beat the S&P averages despite more than six years of a steady climb from low levels. So if the pros cannot beat the market with the wind to their backs how the hell does an individual investor beat the odds in a declining market!

            Maybe you have a short memory but this guy has been talking about buying dips (weakness) and selling strength for the past two years and always on the long side so its pretty unlikely that he is the success he implies. Well what strength? The stock price declines have been relentless.

            Draw your own conclusions about why he is on this board and what the agenda is. And be very careful taking his advice or peering into the empty charts he posts up each day implying this or that bullish signal.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:29 AM

          Bought some SVM in TSX this week. Not buying more for now. I am concentrating on oil.

          Gold is still a lot higher in Canadian dollar than the low at cnd$1250.

            bb
            Mar 11, 2015 11:39 AM

            Well at least you get a dividend, at least last time I checked, but I am gonna say a rarity for me.
            I think svm is still headed down.
            I dislike making calls, I don’t know enough, the only one I really made was I think the Chinese increase buying at about $1000.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:24 PM

            As long as they make profit, I feel it will survive because China is moving fast on solar. Silver is needed there.

            Mar 11, 2015 11:28 PM

            Yes they have a few percentage dividend still. They should be able to maintain it since the payout ratio is low. The reason I bought it is that I sold a couple thousand shares last year at around cnd$2.17 ish. I am no longer interested in most mining companies. I am glad I sold Pam American and part of a few other miners. This environment is toxic for miners.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:35 AM

          Hey Matthew, why don’t you just buy a mine and stop wasting your time on penny stocks? I have a list of 500 that are for sale to a guy just like you with boundless enthusiasm and money to blow. Check them out buddy. This could be your big chance since gold is going to da-mooooon!

          Mine Listings — Gold Mines for Sale –March 2015
          http://minelistings.com/mines-and-claims-for-sale

            Mar 11, 2015 11:31 PM

            Birdman, why don’t you ever figure out how clueless and obnoxious you are?

            Mar 12, 2015 12:15 AM

            I am neither clueless nor obnoxious, But I have known guys like you before so you get your feet held to the fire because I think you are deliberately misleading other investors on this site. You have been utterly wrong in almost all your bull calls since i first read your comments. During that time I have called almost every major downturn. We are miles apart buddy.

            Mar 12, 2015 12:49 AM

            Like I said, you are clueless, not to mention delusional.

          LPG
          Mar 11, 2015 11:40 AM

          Hello Matthew,
          Small add to me on PVG at the $5 ish level yday.
          But still checking a few stocks… today, I’ve got my eyes on FSM and the intraday reversal… they have results tomorrow after close.
          Best to you, and hope all’s well.
          LPG

            LPG
            Mar 11, 2015 11:22 PM

            And to provide a small update, it SEEMS we’re gonna close with a double reversal on the stock today.
            GL to all,
            LPG

            LPG
            Mar 11, 2015 11:05 PM

            To provide an update on FSM.
            We don’t have a double reversal on the US listing (FSM), but we have one on the canadian listing (FVI).
            Don’t know what to make of it, so I’ll leave it there. BUT I note that it seems that based on volumes alone, the Canadian listing is more important than the US listing.

            GL to all investing/trading.

            LPG

            Mar 11, 2015 11:26 PM

            LPG

            That will probably be a good buy. PVG is my favorite. I am averaged in around US $5.00, but I almost bought another couple hundred shares when it went below $5 today.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:21 PM

          Matthew
          My final (1/3 core position) of Alexco @ US $0.27 this morning
          Brian

            Mar 11, 2015 11:00 PM

            Brian, I bought every half cent down when it went below $0.30 -last buy was .2605.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:53 PM

        Right her Birdman
        Counting my money from my GDX trade. Looking for the next bottom so I can put on my next positions.
        Your a first class clown 🙂

        Peter

          Mar 11, 2015 11:54 PM

          Here

          Mar 11, 2015 11:39 PM

          That’s not my recollection Peter. You were going all-in as gold and miners were peaking so presumably you bought high and held or bought high and took a loss on the sale. I really don’t care which because its not my business but you were dead wrong harassing those here who thought it best to bide their time and wait on the sidelines for long entries back in the miners.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:39 AM

    ***** THE EURO IS FINISHED, SO IS THE GOLD MINERS INDUSTRY, WE GOT MINERS FILING FOR BANKRUPTCY, QUIETLY BEHIND THE SCENES WE GOT BIG THINGS HAPPENING IN GOLD……..AND THE RIGGING BOYS ARE LOOSING THEIR MINDS MANIPULATING THE PRICE OF GOLD BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THEIR TIME IS RUNNING OUT *****
    Something is definitely happening behind the scenes with gold and silver because…………..THE WEST IS OUT OF GOLD !!!!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2v3RNkTjZk

      Mar 11, 2015 11:15 AM

      ALASDAIR MACLEOD’s LATEST…………….is very interesting!

    Mar 11, 2015 11:20 AM

    I sold DUST yesterday for 11% profit. Now I am eyeing a position in NUGT.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:53 AM

      isn’t that like having three balls in the air…………….lol

        Mar 11, 2015 11:23 PM

        I’m 5 for 5 on profits in the past year on NUGT, DUST, and JDST with profits ranging from 10 to 30% with each trade. No losses. These 3x gold funds are like ATM machines. You need to get in on them. 🙂

          Mar 11, 2015 11:35 PM

          I think you are correct……….forget the stock picking….this sounds like a better risk reward

          Mar 11, 2015 11:41 PM

          Nice Jason. If you get the rhythm of the rise and falls its not so mysterious at all.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:01 AM

      A wonderful stadment JASON !

      Mar 11, 2015 11:29 PM

      Jason
      I added a small block of NUGT @ US$8.93 yesterday. NUGT has a triple bottom here. I’ll wait to see what happens before I add more
      Brian

    LPG
    Mar 11, 2015 11:38 AM

    Re: EURUSD, and fwiw…
    The MACD on the weekly chart is the lowest it’s been for 5 yrs.
    However, it’s still above where it was in the last few weeks of 2008.
    Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
    LPG

    Mar 11, 2015 11:42 AM

    Why are all the solid gold stocks going up right now at 1:30 pm??? Detour, Fortuna Silver, Franco Nevada, MaG, Kirkland…all up 1-6%, Pan America, Silver Wheaton….are we at an temporary bottom?

      Mar 11, 2015 11:51 AM

      Confused, many of them are at support levels. However, the weekly charts aren’t convincing me of an immediate move up. I believe we have 2 more weeks of carnage for many of these stocks —-I mentioned awhile back I wouldn’t even consider purchasing GDX and GDXJ until April. I believe your odds are better for a bounce at the end of March. We’ll see.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:54 AM

        I tend to agree Doc. But it is easy to see why these levels would be bought because it takes us back to 2009 lows that have some significance. Even I would agree that 15 dollar silver is fairly priced so this is predictable for both bulls and bears alike.

        LPG
        Mar 11, 2015 11:59 AM

        Hello Richard,

        Hope all’s well.

        Recently, you mentioned a 1/1.5yr timeframe for gold miners. I honestly didn’t understand what you meant.

        If you have time at some point, can you please (re)explain your views?

        Thank you & Best to you as always,

        LPG

          Mar 11, 2015 11:02 AM

          LPG, I’ll explain why I think that in the future.

            LPG
            Mar 11, 2015 11:16 AM

            Cheers Richard.
            But I was interested in understanding the “WHAT” first, then obviously, the “WHY” of the “what” is of an interest… 🙂
            Best to you,
            LPG

        Mar 11, 2015 11:24 PM

        I agree. I am bag holding on NUGT and eyeing an avaraged down position this month. I think Gary “Intermediate” Savage is right about gold going lower.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:54 AM

    THE EURO IS CRACKING ! And !!!!?????? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0B2GOIsLz0

      Mar 11, 2015 11:07 AM

      Euro tanking.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:15 AM

        Yes crazy ! 1 KG GOLD IN EURO 35127 !

    Mar 11, 2015 11:15 AM

    ………………DON’T QUIT………………………………………………………….
    When things go wrong , as they sometimes will,
    When the road you’re trudging seems all up hill,
    When the funds are low, and the debts are high,
    And you want to smile, but you have to sigh,
    When care is pressing you down a bit,
    Rest if you must,but don’t you quit.

    Life is queer with it’s twists and turns.
    As everyone of us sometimes learns,
    And many a failure turns about,
    When he might have won had he stuck it out
    Don’t give up though the pace seems slow,
    You may succeed with another blow.

    Success is failure turned inside out,
    The silver tint of the clouds of doubt.
    And you never can tell how close you are,
    It may be near when it seems so far.
    So stick to the fight when you’re hardest hit,
    It’s when things seem worse
    THAT you must not quit………
    Kristone

      Mar 11, 2015 11:20 AM

      This has been on my wall since 1977………and I wanted to share it with anyone who might be depressed………………………j

      Mar 11, 2015 11:48 PM

      J..there’s always the PPT to keep things in perspective.

      “Well, what I just want to talk about for a few minutes is the various efforts that are going on in public and behind the scenes by the Fed and other government officials to guard against a free-fall in the markets…perhaps most important, there’s been–the Fed in 1989 created what is called a plunge protection team, which is the Federal Reserve, big major banks, representatives of the New York Stock Exchange and the other exchanges, and there–they have been meeting informally so far, and they have kind of an informal agreement among major banks to come in and start to buy stock if there appears to be a problem. They have, in the past, acted more formally” … former Clinton adviser George Stephanopoulos, September 17, 2001 on ABC Good Morning America

        Mar 11, 2015 11:06 PM

        good one………..George Stepping on polish ass , should know, if he was an advisor to Bill caught in the closet Clinton

    Mar 11, 2015 11:15 AM

    OUCH! thanks Doc.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:25 AM

    Pretty soon the dollar will be so valuable, you will be able to buy a new automobile for just a sngle $1 bill.
    Wasn’t long ago there was talk of buying a house for the price of just 1 gold coin.
    My how times have changed.
    Dollar To Da Moon!

      Mar 11, 2015 11:09 PM

      Dave: You claimed you could easily come up with ten times I was dead wrong when I was doing interview and said that the interviewer. I think you made that up but I’d like to give you the opportunity to belly up to the bar and put your money where your mouth is.

      How about 10 easy ones?

    Mar 11, 2015 11:27 AM

    The PVC market is an interesting, if little known, indicator of what is happening in the global economy.

    ‘China becomes net exporter of PVC as property bubble bursts’

    http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2015/03/china-becomes-net-exporter-pvc-property-bubble-bursts/

    50% of PVC is used in construction.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:46 PM

      Bob, if you think the property bubble has burst, I may need to ask my parent to see whether I can buy a house there. I have been waiting for a long long long long time. So far, the price is not dropping. It has been wobbling at high level. In Beijing it is around 30-40K yuan per square meter. When I was interested in 2004, it was only 4000. Then it pop up to 15-20K on 2007 when I went there looking. I got angry and decided not to buy.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:11 PM

        PVC market goes down and then property bubble bursts. They stop building first and then, once the building stops, people will looks around and ask “What are we going to do with all these empty buildings?”.

          Mar 11, 2015 11:38 PM

          That is music to my ears. House to chinese is like gold to Indians. Boys cannot find a wife without house. So it is not like the west. It is parallel to food. If house goes down, I will buy one as long as China does not fall into a civil war.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:40 AM

    Identify the bottom ???
    When gold price down further but gold miner ETF such as GDX or GDXJ move up, gold price is bottomed.
    Today???
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/izjt20f34zsh3em/gold.jpg?dl=0

    LPG
    Mar 11, 2015 11:37 PM

    (re-posting here – posted already under today’s Rick comment)

    M. Armsrtrong views on Gold – today commentary.
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/
    GL to all investing/trading
    LPG

    +++++++++++++++++++++++

    Gold – The Downside
    Posted on March 11, 2015 by Martin Armstrong

    The Gold “POP” our computer pinpointed was right on schedule. We even managed to get the day of the high. Now gold has fallen to 1146 intraday and this is interesting. Our Daily Bearish Reversals are at 1146 and 1141 followed by 1130. Resistance now stands at the 1208-1215 level.

    While we see today may form a temp low if the settlement comes in over 1156, we are staring at rising volatility doing into next week.

    The general flavor among the average investors is that gold is dead and not worth even investing in. We need this sort of view to create the final low. It is still not ready for prime time.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:41 PM

      Let all gold/silver miners die and we will get a recovery. It is even better if US sells all of its gold so it cannot manipulate gold any more.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:38 PM

        DON’T WORRY……………….the U.S. is already seeing to that!

    Mar 11, 2015 11:40 PM

    Everything is very volatile now.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:30 PM

    THINGS ARE MOVING FAST, VERY FAST BEHIND THE SCENES PEOPLE……………..so stay buckled up!

    Mar 11, 2015 11:11 PM

    Reading comments on here some are still way too bullish on gold.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:51 PM

      OH, and they are going to be right soon……….SO EVERYONE……….RIGHT NOW……………PLEASE, buy up all the gold and silver you can for now……….BECAUSE YES,……WHAT IS GOING ON NOW BEHIND THE SCENES, is going to be VERY BULLISH for GOLD.

        Mar 11, 2015 11:55 PM

        CHINA SWIFT PATMENT SYSTEM AND NEW PHYSICAL PM EXCHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON……….and much more to come!

    Mar 11, 2015 11:52 PM

    Mark,
    You do realize that gold is about to drop like a big fat yellow shiny rock, right?
    Buying it right now? Um? No

      Mar 11, 2015 11:55 PM

      OH YEAH, YOUR NOT PAYING ATTENTION……….LOOK AT THAT DOLLAR RISE………….THIS HAS GOT TO BE KILLING CHINA………I KNOW THAT THE CHINESE WILL SOON DEPEG FROM THE DOLLAR, AND THEN WATCH GOLD AND SILVER RISE……….SO MUCH IS HAPPENING SO FAST………………….AND YOUR NOT PAYING ATTENTION………..most likely none of you!

    BDC
    Mar 11, 2015 11:44 PM

    11 March 2015 23:30et dollar index at parity.

      Mar 11, 2015 11:08 PM

      YES………….THE USDX HAS HIT THE 100 MARK………………WATCH CHINA GOING FORWARD!

    Mar 12, 2015 12:02 AM

    I would not be buying gold stocks right here. Although I sold my position in DUST last night just after the open, I will be looking for a re-entry into DUST.
    The general rule for the 3 x ETF’s is to get out when they double. JDUST Went from 8-16 and DUST from 11-23. The buy zone for these bear GDXJ/GDX ETF’s should be between 12-13 and 19-20 respectively.

    Mar 12, 2015 12:55 AM

    I agree with you that it is not time to buy miners, or even metals for that matter. The hourly charts on both gold and silver have failed to confirm that these declines are over. There is more blood letting that lies ahead and so it is premature to attempt to catch whatever short term bottom some think has arrived.

    Mar 12, 2015 12:28 AM

    Swing low sweet chariot (in the Euro).

    I agree with what Gary says that the Euro plunge needs a rest and the dollar rally needs a rest. The USDX is up 20 points without a correction and I agree with Gary that there may be a continuation of the dollar bull market afterwards.

    The distance from halfway up the dollar bull market to the top in the two previous dollar bull markets was 1.7-2.2 years. If we are halfway up the present USDX bull market right now (which is debatable), the peak could be expected in late 2016 to early 2017. However we haven’t yet had a halfway point correction or any correction at all since the dollar broke out from its trading range at USDX 80 last summer.

    The breakout in this dollar bull is much stronger than in the 1992-2001 bull and much more like the 1980-1985 bull, which coincidentally was also accompanied by a sustained rise in US oil production and fall in oil imports. This time the USDX has also rocketed through the top line of a huge falling wedge.

    Looking at the long term dollar chart of the past 30 years, historic precedent suggest a dollar top between late 2016 and early 2019. This is also in the zone of a potential peak in shale oil production. It also suggests that it will be between mid-2017 and early 2021 before the dollar bull market is well on its way down.

    There is plenty of room time wise for the dollar to continue its increase given past performance.

    Chart here:
    http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/us-dollar-bull-markets-how-long-do-they.html

    Mar 12, 2015 12:41 AM

    As for the Euro, I just Googled Euro Hyperinflation and found no articles that suggest that one could happen. OK traders are bearish Euro at the moment and it needs decent pause in its decline to dissolve that sentiment and let it build up again on a subsequent decline. However, I have never heard anyone mention that the Eurozone could have a hyperimflation because evrybody says there is no inflation in the Eurozone and it is in deflation. One would wonder how there could be deflation in Europe if their currency has just fallen 30%.

    From 2000-2011 the goldbug mantra wads that there will be hyperinflation in the US dollar in the USA. Oops, didn’t happen. John Williams of Shadowstats said it would happen in 2014. Oops, wrong buddy. Now he says it will happen in 2015 but the US dollar Index has skyrocketed to 100 instead. Oops. These pundits are full of BS – and people are stupid enough to pay them for analysis! And gold will go to $10k and silver to $500, Sure – but if it does, it will be a long wait.

    Anyway, then we heard about hyperinflation in Japan as they do more QE per capita that anyone else, ever. We also heard about it in the UK as they did QE a few years ago. The you have those who say that Greece will have it if they go back to the Drachma – but what about the Euro itself?

    The Austrian economists are always saying that hyperinflation is a currency event not an economic event. So which of the currencies will be repudiated? My bet is that the Euro has a good chance of being first.

    The Euro can be rejected by the financial markets for reasons that do not apply to any other currency and this is the big danger. It could become a hot potato and that will be the clincher. The Germans are administering the Eurozone structure and it would be so wonderfully ironic if they are at the centre of this after what happened to them in 1923

    Mar 12, 2015 12:58 AM

    I may stay out of Dust a bit longer. This sounds like a curveball….MA says we may be at a temporary gold bottom: “While we see today may form a temporary bottom if the settlement comes in over 1156, we are staring at rising volatility going into next week”. I googled ” Daily NY Gold Nearest Futures” which are the figures MA uses and I saw a settlement of 1160.84 yesterday IF I were seeing the same data that MA uses.

    Mar 12, 2015 12:49 AM

    GDXJ and SGDM are above my last few entries (20.77 was the least I paid for GDXJ and 16 was the least I paid for SGDM) so I added to GDXJ this morning at 22.43 and SGDM at 16.70.

      Mar 12, 2015 12:17 AM

      Bought more GDXJ at 21.96…

    Mar 12, 2015 12:59 AM

    Claude has held up as I thought it might so am glad I sold modestly before this week’s plunge for the sector. It made new highs versus many stocks that I wanted to buy even though its dollar high happened earlier. It is up 400% since June when priced in GDXJ and as much as 1,960% vs AXU since its 2/2014 low.
    Fwiw, I still hold about two-thirds of my original Claude position.
    Full disclosure: Still looking to sell more.