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Thoughts from Gary Christenson

Big Al
March 11, 2015

Silver and Gold:  Shelter From the Storm

 

What storm?  The stock and bond markets in the US are doing great, the media has sold the strong employment story, and all those nasty wars are far, far away.

 

So the top few percent are doing well and are sheltered from the storm, but what about the rest of us?  What storms are pounding us?

 

  • Currencies are based on debt, and those dollars, yen, and euros are created every day to keep various financial bubbles inflated.  Global debt is $200 Trillion and cannot be repaid except with deeply devalued currencies.  Central banks are creating currencies, monetizing debt, reducing interest rates, and frantically promoting inflation to avoid deflation.

 

  • Inflationary forces are powerful.  Huge devaluation of our currencies is occurring.  This extends the illusion of exponential growth and diminishes the debt hardship.  Most of what we need, such as food, energy, and health care will cost more every year.

 

  • Deflationary forces are also powerful.  What happens when a few $Trillion of sovereign debt defaults and triggers many more $Trillion in derivative payouts – that might cause a chain of bankruptcies?  Expect deflation in our bubble assets.

 

What will central bankers and politicians do?  Extend and pretend, print currencies, create far more debt, and fabricate stories about how everything is good.

 

Look at the US national debt for the past 40 years.  The exponential trend is clear – up 9% per year on average and about 10% per year since the 2008 recession/depression.  It will rise until congress drastically cuts spending (just kidding) or some nasty reset occurs.  Exponential increases do not last forever so our current exponential increases in debt, stock prices, welfare, military expenses, and economic stupidity will end someday.

 

Silver and Gold:  Shelter From the Storm

 

What storm?  The stock and bond markets in the US are doing great, the media has sold the strong employment story, and all those nasty wars are far, far away.

 

So the top few percent are doing well and are sheltered from the storm, but what about the rest of us?  What storms are pounding us?

 

  • Currencies are based on debt, and those dollars, yen, and euros are created every day to keep various financial bubbles inflated.  Global debt is $200 Trillion and cannot be repaid except with deeply devalued currencies.  Central banks are creating currencies, monetizing debt, reducing interest rates, and frantically promoting inflation to avoid deflation.

 

  • Inflationary forces are powerful.  Huge devaluation of our currencies is occurring.  This extends the illusion of exponential growth and diminishes the debt hardship.  Most of what we need, such as food, energy, and health care will cost more every year.

 

  • Deflationary forces are also powerful.  What happens when a few $Trillion of sovereign debt defaults and triggers many more $Trillion in derivative payouts – that might cause a chain of bankruptcies?  Expect deflation in our bubble assets.

 

What will central bankers and politicians do?  Extend and pretend, print currencies, create far more debt, and fabricate stories about how everything is good.

 

Look at the US national debt for the past 40 years.  The exponential trend is clear – up 9% per year on average and about 10% per year since the 2008 recession/depression.  It will rise until congress drastically cuts spending (just kidding) or some nasty reset occurs.  Exponential increases do not last forever so our current exponential increases in debt, stock prices, welfare, military expenses, and economic stupidity will end someday.

 

 

Gold and silver are real money, while dollars, euros, and yen are paper substitutes that circulate as currency in place of money.  Look at the graph of the ratio of silver to the national debt for the past 20 years.  Note the long term rise in the ratio and especially the increase since 9-11.  Yes, there has been huge volatility in silver prices as shown by the ratio, but silver and gold – real money – are demonstrating their true value in the face of escalating debt.

 

 

Debt will increase and silver prices will rise more rapidly.  Since silver and gold have been crushed during the past four years while stocks and bonds have rallied to new highs, expect those trends to reverse this year.  When stocks and bonds decline central banks will accelerate their creation of currencies to reflate them and debt will increase even more rapidly, along with silver and gold prices.

 

Current (March 2015) Ratio                   0.87

US National Debt                                     $18.15 Trillion

Silver price                                                $15.81

 

Suppose (more of the same – no hyperinflation):

 

Zone 1 (Approximately 2017) Ratio:            2.5

US National Debt                                     $21 – $23 Trillion

Silver Price                                                $55

 

 

 

Zone 2 (Approximately 2020) Ratio:            3.5

US National Debt                                     $28 – $30 Trillion

Silver Price (no hyperinflation)                $85 – $105

 

Other possibilities:

 

  • Global war and hyperinflation:  They will create unbelievable levels of debt and tremendously higher silver and gold prices. $150 silver and $5,000 gold will look inexpensive if the US dollar hyper-inflates.

 

  • Nuclear war, financial and economic collapse, sovereign debt defaults, civil wars and new governments (unlikely, I hope):  We better pray our leaders don’t push the world into such a global catastrophe.  If they do who knows how high silver and gold will be priced and which currencies and governments will survive.

 

  • Everyone plays nice and there is minimal need for wars, false-flags, and other distractions.  Extend and pretend miraculously works through the end of the decade.  In that unlikely and benign case, US national debt increases at only 9% per year to about $28 Trillion, the silver to national debt ratio is subdued at 2.0 – 2.5 and silver is priced at only $50 – $75 in this “best of all possible worlds.” (More of the same, no hyperinflation, only small wars, it’s all good, etc.)

 

Bottom Line:

 

1)   Debt will increase substantially from here, until a massive reset occurs.

2)   Gold and silver, in spite of financial cartel resistance, will assert their real value and be priced much higher, depending on the quantity of debt created, loss of confidence in government and central bankers, and the amount of chaos that occurs during the coming storm.

3)  Exponentially increasing systems do not last forever.  Gold and silver do.

4)   Paper currencies eventually revert to their intrinsic value – effectively zero.  (Famous last words:  It can’t happen here!”)

5)   Don’t worry, be happy, and trust gold and silver more than paper and promises.

6)   I discuss the price of gold (no hyper-inflation) through the year 2021 using an empirical model based on the US national debt.  You can read about the book here and here and here.

 

 

 

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

GEChristenson.com

 

Discussion
16 Comments
    Mar 11, 2015 11:13 PM

    I wonder, if China,India & Russia see the writing on the wall (gold going to the moon after the reset) and are buying gold hand over fist, how come the US is pissing away it’s trillions of $’s on worthless assets instead of adding “GOLD” to our empty vaults!!!!!!! Is that the plan to let our country become a 3rd world country in the future???

    Mar 11, 2015 11:51 PM

    Oh no..DW…u got it all wrong! The US dollar is going to stay strong for years to come..China and Russina are just going to go away and hide..from the big old bad USA and we will be AOK!!…:)>)

    Mar 11, 2015 11:01 PM

    Well…. most people are thinking that its going lower for a while still. And until the big money people or entities buy , at best it’ll stay in a range, at worst , the weak hands will fold driving the price down.

    Mar 11, 2015 11:08 PM

    wow, allied Nevada (anv) just filed for bankruptcy today making the shares just about worthless. the shareholders will receive a warrant to buy new shares in the co. and the old shares you can sell for whatever you can get when they re-open. I almost bought some recently, glad I procrastinated! good luck!

    Mar 11, 2015 11:56 PM

    Here is an interesting piece from http://www.prepareforchange.net

    “Dear Community Leader,”

    “You have been given this brief so that you may understand what is happening now in regard to the closure of the banking system. We hope you will help maintain the calm and peace of your community during this short period of change. We also will encourage you to support those in positions of responsibility to help maintain the status quo in regard to the vital necessities of your local community.

    We are hoping that food, water, electricity, internet, gasoline, transportation and phone service will not be disrupted during this banking system changeover. Furthermore this community leader brief has been created to help you understand what is transpiring around the world at this time. The person or persons giving you this brief are part of a worldwide network which is dedicated to a peaceful transition to a transparent financial system for our banking systems worldwide.

    Who do we represent and who is behind this process?

    Our group is comprised of intelligent, aware individuals from all segments of society and we are dedicated to nonviolent change. We have been made aware of what is now transpiring by key individuals in the world’s secret service organizations and military. Top ranking members of the world’s political infrastructure are also supporting these lawful enforcements. These honest patriots in the CIA, NSA, FBI, military, sheriff and police forces have counterparts from around the world involved in a simultaneous sweep of financial criminals.

    To summarize, there are large international multijurisdictional task forces who have uncovered large-scale corruption in the financial and political arenas and are now taking lawful actions to end this criminal behavior. Certain leaders of regional and national law enforcement agencies and police forces are aware of what is now taking place as well. We also anticipate military presence to be deployed in the cities to help maintain the peace. We are anticipating broadcasts over the emergency broadcast network to explain the situation very soon if they have not begun by the time you have received this document.

    What is happening and why are the banks closed?

    What is happening at this time is a necessary financial reset of the global central banking system. Unfortunately this must necessitate the closing of every computer tied into the central banks. This will leave the entire planet without access to cash, ATM machines, credit cards or stock markets.

    There will be no currency available other than what is already in circulation for a maximum time of possibly 2 weeks. The intent and plans of these lawful agencies in charge are hoping for is a best-case scenario of 3-5 days for the banking system to be offline. However with so many variables at play, the exact time it will take to effect this changeover in reality is unknown at this time. This lack of money amongst the world’s populace clearly may create some hardships in various locations as some may panic for not being able to access their money via the normal channels.

    Your vital role in this process

    This is where our contact with you and your leadership is vital to maintain an open honest and transparent communication network with those in your community and those fellow community leaders who will possibly not know what is happening or be able to receive this brief in a timely manner. One of the most important actions we will ask you to perform is the monitoring of the local police forces that are not aware of this event and what is transpiring. They may see the people’s confusion and mistake this natural reaction as hostile or potentially violent. We ask that above all these forces remain vigilant, proactive and refrain from violence.

    Important suggestions to maintain peace for a harmonious change

    We ask that food and water banks and local community groups be encouraged to begin to serve the populace if these bank closures result in disruptions to any of the following for too long: transportation, food, water, electrical grid, cell phone towers , internet, television, emergency services, hospitals and any other vital network that may be affected.

    How did we know this is happening now?

    Our group has been contacted and we have been asked to act as an informational network and infrastructure to support you in your appointed tasks whatever they may be. If you are a mayor or a water district manager or the community’s liaison to the power companies we hope you will see to it that your responsibilities and services remain uninterrupted during the time while the banks are closed. We further ask that you provide a means to get these necessities to those who require them via your local community’s infrastructure such as soup kitchens on school grounds or distribution of water for those in need. We ask that hospitals and emergency services be given priority and support to protect the aged and infirm.

    Why is this happening?

    Unfortunately there has been criminal malfeasance within the world banking systems including the Federal Reserve for many years. These individuals in charge have corrupted many aspects of the world’s political infrastructure and greed and lust for power has thwarted the democratic process and caused much harm to our world’s ecosystems and societal and national relations.

    Evidence to be presented to the public

    Evidence is being held which indicates a system of financial fraud and corruption, which has resulted in the institutionalized theft of trillions of the world’s hard earned money. This is now ending as the evidence and the serving of indictments, and arrests of those responsible has now begun. These individuals involved in this conspiracy are very powerful and politically connected criminals. They have been repeatedly warned to follow the laws of their respective countries but some of them have refused.

    Time to act

    This refusal to comply with the law has now forced closure of the central banks which is now affecting the entire world banking systems. This radical action is required to enforce the law and is now being implemented by a coordinated police force action around the globe. The reason this has not been done by alerting the populace beforehand is because the criminals in charge control the world media and have established censors worldwide. A policeman does not tell a criminal he is going to be arrested or he will flee.

    Powerful leaders will fall

    This banking racketeering operation has included some very powerful public figures which when the dust settles will most likely shock many people. This is not a military coup or anything negative. In fact we feel this will allow for a more honest system of governance, which will find worldwide support as the truth is revealed to the public in the weeks to come.

    Your right to question the truth of this brief is noted

    We understand you may not be aware or agree to this information that is being presented here but we ask you to consider that this brief was created on September 29th, 2013. This should help to act as evidence that what is now taking place was known by us who created this document beforehand. We further want to reiterate that this is not a military coup and there is no reason for panic and fear. Whether you believe us or not as to the nature of this worldwide event we ask that you do your best to facilitate calm and peace within your communities as efficiently as possible.

    In conclusion

    We ask that you keep an open mind to this document and know we are supporting you in your position of responsibility and power as a leader of your community. Please know that this transition is intended to be for a short period of time only. You will be asked to think locally and to not wait for federal instructions as certain communication channels may be disrupted.

    Please study this document and if possible talk candidly to the persons who bought this brief to your attention. They may have some very good wisdom to clarify what is happening and will share ideas that may benefit you and your community.

    We also have a website (www.prepareforchange.net) where you may access links to articles and evidence that what we are saying has been in process for quite some time. We will encourage you to educate yourself via these links. If the internet network remains open during the time of the closing of the banks these links will help you understand more. If the internet is down we ask you to interface with those who bought you this document.

    Respectfully submitted
    By Prepare For Change team http://www.prepareforchange.net

      Mar 12, 2015 12:09 AM

      Does anyone in their right mind, think the banksters, hijackers, liars , thieves, politicians ,elites, are going to cooperate in a peaceful manner…..just asking…..j

        Mar 12, 2015 12:19 AM

        I’ll agree that it is highly unlikely, but I thought this was an interesting piece on what their organization would send out when the financial global currency reset happens. It seemed like a relevant post based on the article from Gary Christenson about the endgame of these currency wars and a financial reset.

        It did get me thinking more about what it will be like to live in a world post Global Currency financial reset. People for year have said that the national ID cards (which many countries like Venezuela are already using) will be migrated over to a micro-chipped population. The other goal of the Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and the Bohemian Grove club / Bildergergers besides a micro-chipped populace, is one world currency, and about 1/6th of the worlds population. It seems like the currency wars (manufactured Problem) will lead to a global outcry for “fairness” in currencies (manufactured problem leads to expected Reaction), and then magically the UN will propose a Global Currency. Sinister.

        So my only hope is that people may restructure at a grassroots level and develop local mediums of exchange, and resist the one world government and currency idea. It is a long shot, but the best outcome.

          Mar 12, 2015 12:09 AM

          I agree , it is an interesting piece.
          Grassroots level is what FITTS , was thinking needed to happen also.

            Mar 12, 2015 12:16 AM

            Thanks J…The Long. I try to consider the strength of a good community marketplace if things ever seem to dismal on a global or national level. Then I feel a bit more like sipping on a nice beverage and enjoying the day : – )

    Mar 11, 2015 11:59 PM

    Here is an interesting piece from prepareforchange.net

    “Dear Community Leader,”

    “You have been given this brief so that you may understand what is happening now in regard to the closure of the banking system. We hope you will help maintain the calm and peace of your community during this short period of change. We also will encourage you to support those in positions of responsibility to help maintain the status quo in regard to the vital necessities of your local community.

    We are hoping that food, water, electricity, internet, gasoline, transportation and phone service will not be disrupted during this banking system changeover. Furthermore this community leader brief has been created to help you understand what is transpiring around the world at this time. The person or persons giving you this brief are part of a worldwide network which is dedicated to a peaceful transition to a transparent financial system for our banking systems worldwide.

    Who do we represent and who is behind this process?

    Our group is comprised of intelligent, aware individuals from all segments of society and we are dedicated to nonviolent change. We have been made aware of what is now transpiring by key individuals in the world’s secret service organizations and military. Top ranking members of the world’s political infrastructure are also supporting these lawful enforcements. These honest patriots in the CIA, NSA, FBI, military, sheriff and police forces have counterparts from around the world involved in a simultaneous sweep of financial criminals.

    To summarize, there are large international multijurisdictional task forces who have uncovered large-scale corruption in the financial and political arenas and are now taking lawful actions to end this criminal behavior. Certain leaders of regional and national law enforcement agencies and police forces are aware of what is now taking place as well. We also anticipate military presence to be deployed in the cities to help maintain the peace. We are anticipating broadcasts over the emergency broadcast network to explain the situation very soon if they have not begun by the time you have received this document.

    What is happening and why are the banks closed?

    What is happening at this time is a necessary financial reset of the global central banking system. Unfortunately this must necessitate the closing of every computer tied into the central banks. This will leave the entire planet without access to cash, ATM machines, credit cards or stock markets.

    There will be no currency available other than what is already in circulation for a maximum time of possibly 2 weeks. The intent and plans of these lawful agencies in charge are hoping for is a best-case scenario of 3-5 days for the banking system to be offline. However with so many variables at play, the exact time it will take to effect this changeover in reality is unknown at this time. This lack of money amongst the world’s populace clearly may create some hardships in various locations as some may panic for not being able to access their money via the normal channels.

    Your vital role in this process

    This is where our contact with you and your leadership is vital to maintain an open honest and transparent communication network with those in your community and those fellow community leaders who will possibly not know what is happening or be able to receive this brief in a timely manner. One of the most important actions we will ask you to perform is the monitoring of the local police forces that are not aware of this event and what is transpiring. They may see the people’s confusion and mistake this natural reaction as hostile or potentially violent. We ask that above all these forces remain vigilant, proactive and refrain from violence.

    Important suggestions to maintain peace for a harmonious change

    We ask that food and water banks and local community groups be encouraged to begin to serve the populace if these bank closures result in disruptions to any of the following for too long: transportation, food, water, electrical grid, cell phone towers , internet, television, emergency services, hospitals and any other vital network that may be affected.

    How did we know this is happening now?

    Our group has been contacted and we have been asked to act as an informational network and infrastructure to support you in your appointed tasks whatever they may be. If you are a mayor or a water district manager or the community’s liaison to the power companies we hope you will see to it that your responsibilities and services remain uninterrupted during the time while the banks are closed. We further ask that you provide a means to get these necessities to those who require them via your local community’s infrastructure such as soup kitchens on school grounds or distribution of water for those in need. We ask that hospitals and emergency services be given priority and support to protect the aged and infirm.

    Why is this happening?

    Unfortunately there has been criminal malfeasance within the world banking systems including the Federal Reserve for many years. These individuals in charge have corrupted many aspects of the world’s political infrastructure and greed and lust for power has thwarted the democratic process and caused much harm to our world’s ecosystems and societal and national relations.

    Evidence to be presented to the public

    Evidence is being held which indicates a system of financial fraud and corruption, which has resulted in the institutionalized theft of trillions of the world’s hard earned money. This is now ending as the evidence and the serving of indictments, and arrests of those responsible has now begun. These individuals involved in this conspiracy are very powerful and politically connected criminals. They have been repeatedly warned to follow the laws of their respective countries but some of them have refused.

    Time to act

    This refusal to comply with the law has now forced closure of the central banks which is now affecting the entire world banking systems. This radical action is required to enforce the law and is now being implemented by a coordinated police force action around the globe. The reason this has not been done by alerting the populace beforehand is because the criminals in charge control the world media and have established censors worldwide. A policeman does not tell a criminal he is going to be arrested or he will flee.

    Powerful leaders will fall

    This banking racketeering operation has included some very powerful public figures which when the dust settles will most likely shock many people. This is not a military coup or anything negative. In fact we feel this will allow for a more honest system of governance, which will find worldwide support as the truth is revealed to the public in the weeks to come.

    Your right to question the truth of this brief is noted

    We understand you may not be aware or agree to this information that is being presented here but we ask you to consider that this brief was created on September 29th, 2013. This should help to act as evidence that what is now taking place was known by us who created this document beforehand. We further want to reiterate that this is not a military coup and there is no reason for panic and fear. Whether you believe us or not as to the nature of this worldwide event we ask that you do your best to facilitate calm and peace within your communities as efficiently as possible.

    In conclusion

    We ask that you keep an open mind to this document and know we are supporting you in your position of responsibility and power as a leader of your community. Please know that this transition is intended to be for a short period of time only. You will be asked to think locally and to not wait for federal instructions as certain communication channels may be disrupted.

    Please study this document and if possible talk candidly to the persons who bought this brief to your attention. They may have some very good wisdom to clarify what is happening and will share ideas that may benefit you and your community.

    We also have a website (prepareforchange.net) where you may access links to articles and evidence that what we are saying has been in process for quite some time. We will encourage you to educate yourself via these links. If the internet network remains open during the time of the closing of the banks these links will help you understand more. If the internet is down we ask you to interface with those who bought you this document.

    Respectfully submitted
    By Prepare For Change team http://www.prepareforchange.net“

    Mar 12, 2015 12:00 AM

    Shad yr messages are WAT TOO LONG… please… few have the interest or time…
    thanks

      Mar 12, 2015 12:27 AM

      Agatha, if you don’t want to read it then just skip over it. Surely that won’t take too much of your precious time. You probably spent more time complaining than if you had just skimmed down further.

      I posted the article because I felt it was relevant to the article on the Global currency reset, and what it may be like afterwards and that some may enjoy thinking about the concept. I don’t think you get dibs on what people are interested in and can only speak for your own limited perspective.

      The value to me of a board is an exchange of ideas, not whining that you had to scan down and it took an extra second.

        Mar 12, 2015 12:12 AM

        shad….you are correct….the board is to be an exchange of ideas, I think Al, will agree with you. , and like you said, If you do not like it, skip over it………………..j

          Mar 12, 2015 12:17 AM

          Thanks man. I get that it may not be something everyone cares about, but hey, just skim on down or skip it. We all do that, but also all take time to read others posts from time to time and probably learn a thing or two by agreeing or disagreeing.

          Cheers mate!

    bb
    Mar 12, 2015 12:19 AM

    Yes, I made the same mistake with a post yesterday. Silly really, if a post is overly long I generally skip it too.

      Mar 12, 2015 12:33 AM

      I guess it depends on if the subject matter is relevant and if the post has interesting content, and if you are in a rush, or doing some research. Many times people on this board like LPG, Matthew, CFS, Heavy Hitter, Birdman, Glenfidish, Bob UK, or Silverbug Dave have longer posts, and I take the time to read them, because they offer a valuable perspective, stock updates, a macro overview, or interesting questions to ponder.

      Again, if you just want the one liners and comedic banter, that is cool. Information is cool also, and when people share it freely, it is appreciated by most. You can always skip the post and scan down which takes less than a second, but if you engage with the information it could be very valuable.