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Views on the U.S. dollar.

Big Al
March 13, 2015

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147 Comments
    Mar 13, 2015 13:52 AM

    The dollar is massively overbought even on the monthly chart. Why no talk about selling into strength? Where are the contrarians? The dollar can (and I believe, will) retrace the entire move going back to July.
    You lock in your dollar gains by buying things that are now cheap.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p19208858567

      Mar 13, 2015 13:58 AM

      So Matthew, are there any inverse instruments to UPP that you could suggest one take a look at if he feels as you do?

        Mar 13, 2015 13:13 AM

        Take a look at UDN or UDNT for 3x leverage. Or you could buy the Aussie and the loonie if you believe the resource-based economies are bottoming.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:55 AM

          Good points Matthew. Well we are at 100.02 during normal trading, and that is in the 100-102 zone I’ve been waiting for over the last 4 months as a point where the dollar would put in a temporary top. We may have a little more to go, but if it hits 101-102 I’d start shorting the dollar and agree that one could also go long the Euro or Loonie. I also think the PMs and commodities in general will get a little boost if the dollar turns over in the near future. Fun times!

            Mar 13, 2015 13:59 AM

            You might be right Shad. You get the ribbons and gold stars if this is really the top.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:07 AM

            Where are my ribbons with my call last night with head fake?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:13 AM

            I was getting them prepared just as you were writing. Don’t be impatient!

            Mar 13, 2015 13:17 AM

            Thanks Birdman.

            Yes, Glen – You get ribbons and gold stars for the head fake yesterday, and I am glad I waited until today to take a fresh look.

            So for extra credit – do you think this is the top today, or does the dollar need to climb all the way to 102 for the Fib retracement?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:22 AM

            Bird – Also just clarify, I just think it is a short term top in the dollar about 2 weeks. Then I think it takes off heading for it’s blow off top in summer (108-110 target).

            Mar 13, 2015 13:26 AM

            The charts were just saying there was no stopping the dollar until it got up over the psychological 100 mark, and close to the 102 Fib retracement level. I think this is a key level for many traders (kind of like the S&P when it approached 2100 and Nasdaq 5000). In both cases, the markets pulled back for a while to digest that we had made it to the higher benchmarks, but are poised to go higher. I think same with the dollar now that we have breached 100.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:33 AM

            Good article, but I have a hard time getting links to post on this forum. Here is the address that you can cut and paste:

            http://allstarcharts.tumblr.com/post/113355425762/the-us-dollar-just-hit-an-important-upside

            Mar 13, 2015 13:11 AM

            Kudos to Shad and glenfidish (and I think there were a few others) for their call yday re USD and euro. Looks like I sold my euo 2 days (at least) too soon. You guys outdid m Armstrong. Perhaps you should go into business 🙂

            As an aside observation, perhaps m Armstrong should stop being a know it all (history, solar cycles, global warming) and focus on markets. His blog indicating a likely temporary low in euro because 105.46 held on Wednesday sure missed the mark, that temp low did not last two days. He missed that, and missed it on bonds these last 6 weeks.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:31 AM

            Maybe Marty wasn’t wrong but reserves his best material for his be$t friends. Such a worshiped guy could prove to be the ultimate weapon for getting most people on the wrong side right when it matters most. There’s reason to wonder when you consider some of the things he’s said.

            In addition, he was calling for much lower lows when he should have been telling people to buy back in the early 2000s. He said gold would go under 200 and that silver would go to 2 and change.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:55 AM

            Thanks Derek. We are in turbulent times.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:22 PM

            At this point Shad roll a dice lol.. The candle left on hui close is a crock of shit. I call those candles liars because you really don’t know which way it could go. Im going to stick with my guns and say we gap down on Monday. With Fomc on the 17th/18th I expect a smack down like Bird mentioned and even then we can’t rule out options expiry which is the fifth day preceding last day of month. That makes it 25th but J can correct me if im wrong. You add all the above to a weekly chart showing we are headed lower and the odss are we go lower.

            I say we need a 76 intraday on loonie
            102ish on dollar
            euro 102/103?
            gold retest 1130?
            Hui 146? That’s my target based on some calculations..

            I will not rule out your 5-8 day mini pop shad. It very well could be in the works.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:23 PM

            No worries patience is the name of the game 🙂

            Mar 13, 2015 13:25 PM

            Thank you kindly Derek

            Mar 13, 2015 13:43 PM

            Thanks Glen. Yes, I agree with you and Bird that typically before a FOMC meeting gold takes it in the shorts. The mini-pop I expect is dependent on the dollar topping, but could likely happen Mon/Tue as well, as people that think the Fed will announce they will raise rates will have their hopes dashed yet again. Then the dollar should come off, and we’ll have a nice counter-trend move in commodities and currencies to close out March and start April.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:53 PM

            Glen – If gold does gap down hard to 1137-1130 on Mon or Tue as you mentioned, then I’m going to take a more aggressive position planning on a reversal, especially if the dollar also hits 101-102. Personally, I still feel we’d wait until later in Spring to test those lows.

            It is also possible that we just trade sideways into the FOMC meeting on the 18th, and then pop afterwards when people realize the Fed isn’t raising rates until later in the year. This is more the direction I am expecting over a steep decline in gold, but I have learned to expect the unexpected!

            Mar 13, 2015 13:02 PM

            Shad,
            I wasn’t sure – were you thinking that the FOMC meeting will announce a plan to raise rates? I was thinking that they would only possibly remove the patient terminology. But I have long since stopped making plans or taking actions based on my predictions. That goes for NFP days too. I just figure on trying to be nimble and react. When I try to anticipate, I get it wrong too often, especially with regard to how the markets will react. Perhaps I get burned by the buy the rumor, sell the news. FWIW. I myself am sick of what the Fed, and the politicians, have done to us these last 7 years and more. Makes it very hard for retirees like me to survive, without the luxury of a good salary anymore. OK, rant off.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:23 PM

            Hey Derek,

            No just the opposite. I don’t think the Fed can raise rates much without spiking the dollar even more, and collapsing the system due to the huge debt load they have created. Personally I don’t think they’ll change much at all and will at least postpone until June or more likely in September if they were going to raise rates.

            There are many brain-dead talking heads on CNBC, Fox, Yahoo, etc.. that seem to be convinced the Fed will raise their rates any minute. Then again, they’ve been waiting for the Fed to raise rates since 2009 and magically they never do. (that is because they have painted themselves into a corner by offering the 0% rates for too long, and that is what is allowing financial institutions to borrow for nothing and place it in the general stock markets). The Fed is a mess and they have issued so much money in their bond buying programs that now the debt is not serviceable.

            The point is that typically before and during the FOMC for the last 2 years gold has sold off with the anticipation that rates may rise. Bird and Glen pointed that out, and I was agreeing that typically there is pressure on PMs going into those meetings, and that illusion of a rate increase may stretch the dollar just a little bit higher on Mon/Tues. The jury is still out on whether we double topped in the dollar Wed night and today at just over 100.39 or if we’ll push it to 102 before the greenback rolls over.

            So caution going into Mon/Tues and if there is a sell-off in PMs then I’m going to be buying key stocks & ETFs aggressively for a bounce. My hunch is that it will be more of a sideways to slightly down grind going into the meeting and then a 2 week pop.

            I am not so sure we’ll be testing the 1130, but some people think we may get there at the beginning of next week. I think we’ll maybe get down into the high 1140s and then bounce, saving that Nov low to be tested in a couple of weeks.

            Who knows really? It is a nutty market.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:47 PM

            Thanks Shad.

            What I am getting at is that if the FOMC at least removes the patient terminology, that will be used as a sign that they will later this year raise rates. With all the implications of that for the dollar, and Treasury yields, and gold. I think expectations will remain if they at least remove the patient word. If they don’t remove the patient word,……..

            Will know soon enough. I cannot predict. The markets have made it clear about their prediction. Maybe they will be wrong. Surely the data points have been very weak.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:02 PM

            Oh, I got you now Derek. Yes, I must have seen a dozen video clips with talking heads analyzing if the word “Patient” will be taken out, indicating they are moving forward with the rate increase later in the year.

            Here is what is absolutely astounding —– The whole financial markets in equities, currencies, bonds, and commodities is about to get bat crap crazy over just ONE word.

            You’re right Derek, there is no way to know how people will react. It has been described as the market being an overly attentive lover, that parses the meaning of every gesture or word. What happened to our thriving free marketplace?

        Mar 13, 2015 13:34 AM

        Buying UUP is shorting Yen and Euro specifically. It is not generically long dollar since it does not include others like YMB, Gold, Land, stocks, …. It missed 99% of world assets. So I would say long dollar on Yen and Euro term is not really long dollar in general.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:46 AM

          To long dollar you either have to short everything or sell everything and stay in dollar cash.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:16 AM

      Contrarian plays are usually the best.
      I still feel deflation is in the cards and recent dollar strength is a result of this. The FED has too much invested in this cycle and they very well could extend the battle against deflation.
      And the dollar may very well reverse course. I personally feel that the 2008 high must be exceeded first. Too much momentum. I don’t have deep enough pockets to worry about selling into strength, but I may take a stab down the road. It could be fireworks! Good point though. See my comments about the yen below regarding contrarian plays.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:41 AM

      Matthew,
      Love your reply to my post about m Armstrong. I have only known about him for about a year, but I am not liking some things. I will leave it at that. Thanks for your perspective and knowledge of his past calls.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:57 AM

    Bit surprised how gold / silver are holding up re strength of the USD. Can’t help feeling that we will wake up one morning – next week? – to discover another big smackdown of gold.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:16 AM

      You could almost guarantee, there will be a smackdown next week,,,,,,all the way up to the 20th………..

        Mar 13, 2015 13:20 AM

        I have a hunch that it will be Monday or Tuesday. They seem to like Tuesdays.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:29 PM

          Bob read my post above regarding Monday.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:38 PM

            I think gold has been a bit stubborn for them this week… so a smackdown to drive it towards the lows.. or new lows… will serve the big banks next week.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:56 PM

            glenfidish……..I think you thoughts on the 25th and OPTION EXPIRY are correct.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:22 PM

            Thanks J!

        Mar 13, 2015 13:29 PM

        Read my post above.. Is the 25th options expiry?

    Mar 13, 2015 13:09 AM

    Watch a little of Rick Akerman’s take on gold via the 321gold site video. Correct me if I’m wrong but he says $817 gold if the price drops 40 bucks below the November lows!!! Is this true? That is a serious collapse. Am I wrong here Rick or is this your take on it?

      Mar 13, 2015 13:38 AM

      Rick missed the Stock market run since 2009 and gold run since 2008, completely. I listened to him for years plus several other guys. They kept saying deflation and bear market rally. It has been too long. Tim Woods is another one I remember. Maybe Mish also except he was bullish on gold back then. Oh one more, Harry Dent.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:02 PM

        That is not true Lawrence. He wrote extensively about his theories which were early (and correct) but if you really followed him closely you would have known he guided his subscribers through the ups and downs with real professionalism.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:38 PM

          He does give price target for traders, which is true. I am not commenting on those since I am not qualified to say anything. However, his calls in the longer term have been bearish. If you go back to the articles in 2009 and 2010, you can see it. Off course I can ignore that since he claim to be a trader. However, he always say the market is without fundamentals, which I agree some what. But I feel it will rise despite the bad fundamentals because one fundamental is money printing which override all the rest.

          I am not saying anything for his short term call. However, $810 is a intermediate to long term call though.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:20 AM

    Sheesh!…the Euro broke below 1.05 and the Loonie below .78 and what the hell is coming next because this is really not good. Things that I did not think could happen today have happened and its bad news.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:35 AM

      Apparently dolphins have been sighted getting into spaceships and leaving the planet.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:44 AM

        I have a foreboding Bob. That 1.05 was the line in the proverbial sand so this is bad news for Europe as it did not hold. Look at the debt to GDP numbers they boast in Europe. Awful hardly even cuts it. If they all went back to their old currencies it would be a complete disaster. There is no guarantees that a political union will hold together with so many dissenting voices and new anti-union parties coming to the fore. I guess the people will have the last word after all and whatever the mandarins in Brussels wrote in their thousands of pages of regulations and rules can be turned into firewood or tossed out the window. Unless anyone believes that a Euro falling to .80 will ignite growth and turn this sorry situation around. What a mess.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:56 AM

          We are hearing the chimes at midnight Birdman… to loosely quote the bard.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:02 AM

            I don’t know what that means Bob but I have a feeling its not good!

            Is that an English expression?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:10 AM
            Mar 13, 2015 13:14 AM

            But what does it mean? Metaphorically speaking? Is it like 3 minutes to midnight or something like that?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:20 AM

            Funny Bob UK. You have dolphins in spaceships, and still quoted Shakespeare all in the same thread. A gentleman and a scholar : – )

            Mar 13, 2015 13:25 AM

            I thank you Shad.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:16 AM

          The chimes at midnight means the approaching end… when a clock strikes midnight you hear the chimes ring before the clock strikes midnight… you know that the end is approaching…

          In the above clip Falstaff is reflecting on his life… he realises that he has lived a long life, done many things… and that the end is approaching. He has heard the chimes at midnight… as we each will also hear one day.

          You may have heard of the ‘Doomsday Clock’ where scientists place the hands on a clock to midnight dependent on how close they think the end of the world is. It is currently 11.57… almost the chimes at midnight 🙂

          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

            Mar 13, 2015 13:35 AM

            Thanks Bob.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:41 AM

            Use to be a BEER….named FALSTAFF. Popular in the 40 and 50’s,,,wonder if the scientist made it in the lab for the sheeple, for subliminal messaging……

            LFP
            Mar 13, 2015 13:55 PM

            Since BotAS’s inception, this is the (scant) 3rd time that a ”3 minutes before” has been issued.
            The ”2 minutes” rating has only been issued once-to-date, in 1953, due exclusively to the contemporaneous Russia-USA nuclear arms programs of that period.

            It may be worth visiting the Bulletin’s site proper & reading the statements accompanying the numerical ratings, as they vary (somewhat) from wikipedia’s.
            thebulletin.org/timeline

            For the thicker-skinned among us, a dauntingly informative 4-slide presentation, focused on the effects of an 800 kiloton nuclear payload detonation, ~1 mile above Manhattan, is also available on the Bulletin’s site.
            See:
            thebulletin.org/what-would-happen-if-800-kiloton-nuclear-warhead-detonated-above-midtown-manhattan8023.
            — LFP
            P.S.: Sorry for the doublepost on this

            Mar 13, 2015 13:23 PM

            I bet if a bomb did go off l mile high over Manhattan…..,,,,I BET THE COCKROACHES AND BANKERS would still be alive…
            Cockroaches would move to the Trump towers, and the BANKERS would move to DC and get ready for the BARBQUE

            Mar 13, 2015 13:11 PM

            Maybe the cockroaches and bankers would just start interbreeding and produce cock-people….. Oh wait they already have…. JP Morgan, Goldman Sucks, etc…

        Mar 13, 2015 13:23 PM

        BOB uk
        Goodbye. And thanks for all the fish.
        Terry Pratchett has passed now, too.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:14 PM

          I have never read any of Pratchett’s work but he is hihgly regarded by his fans.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:29 AM

    Here’s Martin Armstrong with a few inspirational words for the gold bugs. Maybe he is softening up a little where they are concerned or the charts have clarified to the extent a final bottom has come into sight.

    Anyway, his view is that a reversal may take place around 1134 which is a mere 18 dollars below where we now stand. And if that’s the case it means we are almost literally scraping the bottom of the decline right now.

    He could well be right. Yet how long gold takes to actually get there is another question as it could theoretically trade sideways for a year before finally breaking out. I suppose we will know soon enough.

    Bull Markets are Defined By Currency Flows — Armstrong Economics
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/13/bull-markets-are-defined-by-currency-flows/

      Mar 13, 2015 13:44 AM

      Bird, Martin has been postponing the gold reversal several times. I remember he said late 2014 in 2013. He has also keep cancelling his low targets and put in new lows. I start to doubt his predictions.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:48 AM

        I think the focus gets better the closer you come to the targets. There are so many variables. It is like a Rubics cube squared trying to add it all up and understand what is happening some days. The dollar just won’t relent. It is a very bad sign.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:14 AM

          Bad sign, agree. Very bad for US economy and oil producers especially. It is bad for any manufacturer and exporter for that matter. It is good for Wall Street but cancerous growth of financial industry is end of game for the real economy. Financial industry should not be over 20% of economy.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:15 AM

            I know people don’t care but leqders have to think long term,

            Mar 13, 2015 13:16 AM

            Crude just hit its support Lawrence. I would like to think it’s going to bounce but lately it seems everything we expect does not happen anymore. This would be a good time for the dollar to top I would think.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:17 AM

            When US was leading the rest of world, it was its real economy. Financial industry was just an supporting industry. Now it is the backbone.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:29 AM

            Just bought an oil share (CNQ) on TSX today. I read a report a few days ago and it said by the current decline rate of shale oil wells and off line of rigs, around 600,000 barrels will be dropped off from US shale production at the end of June. however, even it can be calculated, I cannot verify it. I know the decline rate of the current shale wells, in 2 years, there will be ~80% drop in production. US has shale production of 5.x million barrels a day, so the decline of supply should be fast.

            CFS
            Mar 13, 2015 13:28 PM

            The last thing to go in a decaying body is the skeleton!

          Mar 13, 2015 13:26 AM

          Deflationary, period.
          In nasty bear/bull markets oversold readings and overbought readings are meaningless. I saw way too many attempting to catch the falling Yen arguing oversold conditions, fibonacci retracements and the like a year ago. Now they have simply given up. The chart mirrors gold and the only positive for gold is the recent divergence between the two charts. Other than that, it appears the yen is going to weaken for another 1-3 months, but appears close to a correction. Deflationary forces at work until the FED re-institutes easy money policy. This is a nasty cycle. Remember all of that talk that the FED should be doing Trillions of easing opposed to billions?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:32 AM

            I think you ignore the fact that Yen in circulation doubles every few years and gold is nearly constant. US dollar is in between.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:33 AM

            You are so right Richard. A complete rethinking is now necessary.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:37 PM

            Richard,

            You can bank the fact that there economy is going to take it up the arse. If there currency stays priced this high, I guarantee jobs will be lost on a massive scale. Foreign countries are not going to buy from them. Imports are headed down. As if it was not enough that they consume and don’t produce anything and you have a rising dollar they are screwed. Tourism is going to kill them from orlando to newyork etc. Forget canadians crossing over to shop as we are to broke to compete with currency. Either this reverses soon or this is the collapse that is coming full throttle.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:28 PM

      This is the reason I mentioned to you yesterday that I could see is hovering here range bound to drive the longs and shorts crazy. They are shaking the tree left, right,center, back, around the posy like a pocket full of rosy and then some more shaking and baking. These markets are disgusting and not for the faint.

      The part I don’t understand and maybe you,matt or someone else can clarify is what does marty mean by the weekly bearish reversal stands at 1134?

      What does that mean?
      If it gets to that number it becomes bullish on reversal?
      If it gets to that number and breaks it becomes bearish on reversal down?

      This is the problem with marty hard to understand what he means at times. As if he talks in coding instructions.

      Basically is he saying it would reverse on that number?

        Mar 13, 2015 13:02 PM

        Ditto on hard to understand Marty!

        Mar 13, 2015 13:19 PM

        1134 is where the bear reverses and goes in the other direction….ie becomes bullish again….but does not necessarily mean the end of the declines. It’s a target where you can place bullish bets. That’s how I read it.

          Mar 13, 2015 13:40 PM

          That is how I understood it as well Birdman. He is basically saying hie is putting in a limit order down at 1134 to buy Gold there in a decline, because he thinks it will pivot there and reverse back up.

          -> Since I have had an 1137 target really since Rick Ackerman brought that up as a hidden pivot that held 2 different times in regular trading sessions back in Nov, and everyone else wants to the use the overnight low of 1130 from Nov, then 1134 is sitting smack in between the 1137-1130 range, so that works for me.

          However, I just didn’t think we test the November lows until April or May, but the market could care less what anyone thinks and will do what it does. Again, I feel we may grind sideways to down on Mon/Tue next week, and then have an up-leg for about 2 weeks or so. Then in a few weeks I think we head towards Nov low of 1137, 1134, 1130 (whatever) and I think we’ll go down below it.

          My personal reversal target for the major bottom is Gold is $1044.70 (Oct 20th, 2009 target). There is a strong Fib retracement level around $1048. So I think $1044-1048 should be very strong support. Now, if that goes down then I don’t see support again until $993.20 (Feb 20th, 2009 peak).

            Mar 13, 2015 13:58 PM

            P.S. – I just watched a Gary Wagner video on Kitco and he has $990.90 as the next support after $1130 because it is a 61.8% Fib retracement. This is pretty darn close to the $993.20 Feb 20th, 2009 prior peak.

            So we can say under 1130 the two support zones are ($1044-$1048) that could be a pivot point, or below that ($993-$991) that is the next major area of support.

            Those are of course for when Gold tests, and likely will break, the 1130/1134/1137 zone in a few weeks. I don’t anticipate this happening at the beginning of next week like some on this site, but hey, the Global Currency Reset is supposed to be on March 17th (next Tuesday) so it could be the end of the world, again, for all we know : – )

            Have a great weekend everyone!

            Mar 13, 2015 13:59 PM

            Shad good points.. At this point im open minded to even lower prices then that. This bear is long in the tooth and I will respect it. Jim rogers has been saying that all assets usually retrace 50%. So gold high was 1923.70 intraday in 2011.

            961.85 is the precise number give or take. You can see clearly why one of the more brighter guys in here has remained keen on that target for so long. He knows who he is :)..I happen to like that target myself.

            Someone who id really like to give an opinion on current market place in gold now for the next 3 months and longer term price for bear to end would be Vortex.

            I sometimes don’t agree with all his views or tone, but he makes good calls on the daily..Care to chime in?

            Mar 13, 2015 13:20 PM

            Yes, I have heard Jim Rogers talk about a 50% retracement from that 1920 level in overnight trading from Sept 5th-6th, and had heard him round it off to 960. I’ve also posted that same snippet a few times in Jan & Feb because I have a lot of respect for Jim Rogers and his experience in the entire commodity space.

            I also agree that anything is possible, but the lowest I can let my imagination travel to is $890. $890 was the old 1980 high peak, and it is the 61.8% retracement if you draw your chart from $252.80 in 1999 to $1920 in Sept of 2011. I just can’t see gold going below that without the entire mining sector turning off it’s lights.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:29 PM

            I agree shad and at this point your numbers are pausible. It is very bearish lately and i have not felt this bearish ever. That tells you where this bear has taken us. At this point, I think I much rather see it break 1130 then try and find a bounce. This bear is relentless. And yes miners are bleeding all around. Like I told Bird that I was going through the books and im shocked at how much the cash levels/operating cash flows have dropped and debt increased. Seems most miners are all in the same boat. Something has to give.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:53 PM

            Yes it is a bad bear, but there have been a few as steep and 2 that were longer, based on what Jordan Roy Byrne has featured on his last few video segments on Palisade Radio. It hasn’t been kind to the miners since 2011 and it has been relentless, but that is what bear markets do.

            I am actually fairly optimist for the first time in years that we are through with most of the Bear, but do not believe we bottomed in Nov at 1130. We can’t rule that out until we go through that number, but it looks like that is something that will be happening sooner rather than later.

            Good luck on Monday & Tuesday mate!

          Mar 13, 2015 13:47 PM

          Birdman,

          Thanks for clearing that up..Bird this bear is the ugliest I’ve ever witnessed. At this point everything and anything can happen. You have always maintained a 968 target for a very long time and now i assume its back on the table? Are you of the thinking that this can go as far as Chartsters targets? I mean marty has worse case I believe as 600 give or take.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:36 AM

    Quote of the day:

    “If there was ever a moment when we needed some Divine Intervention, now would be really good.”
    ~Martin Armstrong – March 13, 2015

      Mar 13, 2015 13:46 AM

      I second that Irwin. I feel sick today about how the market is performing. Maybe this whole September thing is going to be just as bad as they say. Best prepare for more bad news.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:00 AM

        Armstrong seems to be in rare form today – I can even understand some of what he writes. Funny too!

        “We may be actually turning down with the solar cycle into a colder period not warming. So it looks like this will be a trial by ice rather than by fire. This is not preaching we can reverse it. Sorry – we are just screwed. I am not sure you can even drive south fast enough when the poles do flip.

        “What I do know from the ECM, whatever seems to be wrong, will go wrong on this next cycle. So what the hell. We might as well throw this one in there too and bring it all on. I do so miss Global Warming. So while the academics are begging for billions to study how man has caused this climate change, the 720,000 year cycle may be on its way and their bank accounts may be literally frozen.”

        http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/03/13/trial-by-ice-not-fire-the-new-ice-age-cometh/

          Mar 13, 2015 13:08 AM

          When he says “Sorry, we are just screwed” I will admit I worry just a little. Not that I was not already worried. No place is safe anymore. There are no more Wild Wests to run away too. Even here in Africa they are getting nuts about collecting taxes. It was not this way a few years ago but computers have done wonders for allowing even poor countries to catch up to Western developed market systems.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:34 PM

        Gold and Silver seem to be stabilizing in the 1150-1170 range. Many quality, Canadian-based PM stocks up today. And you feel sick?

        TSX quotes for EOD:
        Claude + 5.26%
        Alexco + 16.85%
        Pretium + 2.46%
        Kirkland – 0.58%

      Mar 13, 2015 13:57 AM

      Isn’t today when Armstrong’s end of the world stuff happens? Surely it can’t happen on Saturday? It must be today.

      OK, it could be Monday I suppose… at a pinch, next Thursday…

        Mar 13, 2015 13:11 AM

        Ha! Funny Bob (does he really have an end of the world date). Shit…. 🙂

          Mar 13, 2015 13:22 AM

          Throughout the ages there have been men and women predicting the end is imminent.

          They have all been wrong – so far.

            Mar 13, 2015 13:52 AM

            BOB of Uk… LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A .SIGN……..GOLD IS at 1155….. If Gold closes at 1153….Falstaff could be correct on Dooms day……….11:53(on the clock) ….the IDES OF MARCH…LOL…

            CFS
            Mar 13, 2015 13:30 PM

            Don’t forget about friday the thirteenth.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:45 PM

        I’ve seen a couple of Global Currency Reset sites that have long targeted March 17, 2015 as the time for upheaval……ummmm….. That is Tuesday right before the FOMC meeting.

        Just in case the financial world unravels next week, make sure to have on clean underwear. That way if you do a laundry drop in your pants, it will at least be clean linen.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:15 PM

      I think ‘Divine Intervention’ has his/her hands full with all the war, disease and poverty in the world to think about coming to the rescue of Capitalism.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:21 AM

    last call for dollar top at dxy 94, here we are a little over month later at dxy 100 or so, and another call for top for dollar.
    oil was supposedly breaking out for a four to six week rally first days of February, well pity if you listened, currently at break point of previous lows as it hasn’t done anything else but go down since that call. No call on oil this time around
    gold had many possibilities last I heard here from Gary, anyway, just hanging in surprising well considering dollar strength.
    We also await, the parabolic rise in the markets beyond 5000 touted repeatedly here. This will also be adjusted with some babble gap in the near future.

    Yes, folks as I have said repeatedly, everything is hinged on the dollar strength. Has been for months and will continue to be. No one can predict with any certainty especially smoke and mirrors bull crap like cycles, fibs, Astros etc when that might be.
    I suspect a great deal of dollar strength is related to perceived imminent rate increase, while rest of world goes in opposite direction. I’d bet the dollar stops rising when the rate hike news arrives. Like they say, buy the rumour and sell the news. Now should the fed get cold feet and delay once again a rate hike into obscurity, then I suspect you will get more than a correction in dollar, and a hell of a rally in commodities

      Mar 13, 2015 13:34 AM

      Are you The John Smith. Sorry, just some levity 🙂 .

      Must say I agree that prediction is foolhardy at least I am trending to that opinion. I used to think these people were at best 50% accurate with their predictions, but now I think it is much below 50%. Kind of thinking that what is best is to be balanced, watch price action and be nimble. I sure am having troubles, with either selling too early or holding too long.

        Mar 13, 2015 13:05 PM

        Derek, there is a entire army of paid online pundits making multiple predictions, which serve to entice subscribers as they bait you with a little info and hope you bite and pay for more info. Gary, may not be mean spirited as some, however if you have a paid site then you have to expect criticism if you don’t achieve what you claim.
        I look to extremes, with these guys, and tend to lean in the opposite direction as they are wrong in the great majority of instances. Right now if you did the opposite to his prognostications you would be good in selling at his call for rally in oil in early February, buying dollar when he called for a pullback at dxy 94. Right now he has been calling for a blow off top measured by a move above 5100 on ndx a couple weeks ago or so. Well I went lightly short and holding for an extreme.
        I’ll be looking to cover with any recovery following fed meeting next week. If we bolt higher first thing next week which I doubt, I’ll hold and buy more downside incrementally as this thing is not going to bust out. We’ll be much lower between and sometime in October and I feel time is on my side

          Mar 13, 2015 13:24 PM

          Thanks. I agree with what you have noted above about recent predictions.

          What bothers me more about some of these pundits, is the propensity to tout the good calls and conveniently become amnesiac when wrong. People might respond with, that is business. But it irritates me. I think back to what Harry Browne wrote about in his book Fail Safe Investing, with his warnings about people who try to predict this stuff and take money. While dated in some ways, his book has a lot of sense and can still be applicable today, especially for investors as opposed to speculators.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:37 PM

      Mr smith,

      I think you make really good sense. And its a high probability that this is what is happening. Thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:39 AM

    I think the US dollar will run to $1.05 before the reverse but I want a platinum star if I’m right, gold is just too common for me!

      Mar 13, 2015 13:51 PM

      A platinum star it will be DT!

      I’ve already shot my mouth off about 102 for the near-term top, and then after a correction for a few weeks, I see the dollar doing a blow off top near 108-110. If it gets to $105 before correcting near term, then I’ll have to raise the blow off top targets, and issue a shiny new Platinum Star to you sir.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:40 AM

    Where is the Rick Ackerman interview for today that was mentioned?

      Mar 13, 2015 13:38 AM

      And Doc….and Chris…..been missing in action all week. Have they quite the Kerr report or something?

        Mar 13, 2015 13:59 PM

        I’m thinking maybe this is a sign of a bottom. 🙂

        Mar 13, 2015 13:52 PM

        Yeah, I heard Doc wasn’t feeling well, but where is Chris? Where is Rick? Can’t Doc just doctor himself up and get on here with the gang?

        We miss your input guys!

    Mar 13, 2015 13:45 AM

    Deflation is an extremely slow process. The FED realizes this. But the FED also realizes that easy money leads to bubbles. So they are caught. We are in a financial bubble with a crappy economy. Listen to the recent musings of Greenspan. To me, it’s not about rate hikes or anything else. The only question is whether the FED can save the day again with it’s next steps and what the impacts will be.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:06 AM

    fed has no room, boxed themselves in corner. rate increase credible thing to do, but late in coming with currency war going on and the us buck winning the game by default. deflation more than a casual concern judging by non ending commodity collapse, like a growing cancer in spite of non stop money pumping first in US and now world wide.
    I’ve been sitting with a few insurance put equivalents because when this unhinges you don’t need a lot unless greedy, and the chances of a big time rally remote

    Mar 13, 2015 13:10 AM

    Why is GDXJ up since Wednesday folks? Thoughts?

      Mar 13, 2015 13:28 AM

      I like the relationship between GDX and GDXJ at the moment for the bullish miner case. Basically since GDXJ made it’s new low and GDX did not. Still too early to make conclusions, but I will leg into some GDX calls 6 months out.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:14 AM

    John Smith.
    I think you are right about the market currently pricing in the “impending doom” of a .25% increase. This is all the fed needs to save face. I suspect hey will not raise rates after this.

    PF
    Mar 13, 2015 13:17 AM

    Gary,

    Is the oil rally into the mid 60s still in play or has the counter trend rally already been aborted?

      Mar 13, 2015 13:25 AM

      good question PF, however the rally into 60’s never commenced when called

      Mar 13, 2015 13:11 PM

      Absolutely still in play. Oil is just waiting for the dollar to top.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:27 AM

    total agreement here Confused. Fed badly needs face saver. can then sit back and waffle again for months if need be.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:27 AM

    I am a long term owner of several oil royalty trusts and NOG . I am not buying any oil. producers here. I have been buying MLPs that own pipelines and gathering lines. No one wants them here , and several pay 6 to 8 % annual . I am willing to sit at a loss so i can earn income . I believe by Fall the oil price will recover. We may test 40 [or 38] a barrel in the next few months. best to all S

      Mar 13, 2015 13:38 PM

      rsh

      Do you mind sharing the MLP stocks with +5% dividend? I feel lazy today 😉

      Brian

    Mar 13, 2015 13:30 AM

    My target price for WTI crude is 60 to 70 by october. Best of health and wealth to you all . S

    Mar 13, 2015 13:57 AM

    Here is a link about the GDP Now indicator, put out by the Atlanta Fed branch. This is to me a new indicator. Wow, currently predicting Q1 GDP growth of only 0.6%.

    http://WWW.cnbc.com/

    Mar 13, 2015 13:34 PM

    Big fat outside reversal on the dollar. So down she goes next week. Too late for the Euro though. It breached 1.05 and now its future is written but when the next big decline comes we cannot yet know.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:36 PM

    maybe they did leave Ker…

      Mar 13, 2015 13:42 PM

      I hope not.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:52 PM

    Paging Chris Temple!
    Paging Doctor Postma!

    Hello….hello…..hello……………………….Cory?…….hellooooooo……

      tfg
      Mar 13, 2015 13:19 PM

      Not sure right back means would like a couple more opinions

      Mar 13, 2015 13:07 PM

      bird….go outside and peck on the telephone pole,,,try morris code…., I know how much you love dots …….

      Mar 13, 2015 13:53 PM

      Nanu Nanu….

    LFP
    Mar 13, 2015 13:53 PM

    Since BotAS’s inception, this is the (scant) 3rd time that a ”3 minutes before” has been issued.
    The ”2 minutes” rating has only been issued once-to-date, in 1953, due exclusively to the contemporaneous Russia-USA nuclear arms programs of that period.

    It may be worth visiting the Bulletin’s site proper & reading the statements accompanying the numerical ratings, as they vary (somewhat) from wikipedia’s.
    thebulletin.org/timeline

    For the thicker-skinned among us, a dauntingly informative 4-slide presentation, focused on the effects of an 800 kiloton nuclear payload detonation, ~1 mile above Manhattan, is also available on the Bulletin’s site.
    See:
    thebulletin.org/what-would-happen-if-800-kiloton-nuclear-warhead-detonated-above-midtown-manhattan8023.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:55 PM

    Not sure about the accuracy of the data. US rig count is dropping faster than 2008-2009 period. 2008 decline saw a $33 -> $90 oil in a year. US relies on drilling much more than 2009 since it was mostly conventional oil during that period and now it is more shale oil, which requires constant drilling. A fast dropping of rig means a faster decline on supply. Are we seeing a more drastic rise on oil price in the next couple of years? We have to wait and see.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-13/rig-count-drops-14th-week-row-fastest-rate-29-years

    Mar 13, 2015 13:05 PM

    Shad, just in case you missed it under the other thread, here’s this:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PALL&p=W&st=2010-02-13&en=today&id=p70369419070
    You can see on the left of the chart that silver went up over 200% but is now down .70% (since Feb.2010) and that palladium is up 88% right now.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:56 PM

      Yes thanks so much Matthew. Great work Chart Ninja!!!

      I had responded on yesterday’s Rick Ackerman thread but here was my response.

      On March 13, 2015 at 1:29 pm,
      Shad says:

      Yes, that is exactly what I was hoping our Chart guru could find. I saw where they used to be more correlated in 2011-2012 and then actually moved in different directions, but then got synched up from Mar-Oct of last year, and now are moving inversely. I guess what I learned is that there is no real correlation between Silver & Palladium, and that is why it is a good idea to have both in your portfolio.

      Again, I think Silver has a much better chance at a larger percentage increase, and Palladium could fall more. However, the fundamentals for Palladium have been strong the last few year and I expect that to continue into 2017.

      Thanks Matt, I wish I was as fast as you at creating charts. You da man!

        Mar 13, 2015 13:06 PM

        Earlier in that thread I had also posted these thoughts on Palladium:

        On March 13, 2015 at 9:26 am,
        Shad says:

        The jury is still out for me on Palladium, and I follow it every day and have for years. Personally, I have made more money trading in and out of Palladium & Platinum stocks over the last few years than Gold or Silver.

        2014 was a wild year up until August, but luckily I missed most of the giant pull back in late Aug-Sept. I got back in and rode it back up through year end.
        In 2015, when it took a nosedive down to close at 754 (intra-day 747) in January it got my attention. I think we actually were discussing it on the blog back in Jan and I stated that since it bounced off the support levels targeted, that I felt it would rebound hard and get back over 800. That is exactly what it did.

        Palladium has a pattern of higher lows and higher highs, which is still bullish in my opinion. The low of 754 on Jan 19th was higher than the previous two lows of 751 on Oct 17th, and 753 on Oct 3rd. The recent high of 826 on March 2-3rd, was higher than the odd triple top Palladium put in at 812 on Dec 12th, 815 on Dec 26th, and 814 on Jan 13.
        It has been a wild ride, but with higher highs and higher lows, and much of Europe starting to convert from diesel to gas, then Palladium is gaining in importance over platinum. Also China is using mostly gas powered cars putting more demand into the Palladium space.

        As far as it’s relationship to Silver – I don’t know. I usually group silver in with Gold, and keep Platinum, Palladium, and Rhodium as the PGM group doing their own thing. The PGM group is really quirky, because sometimes it travels with Gold and Silver, sometimes with the base metals, and sometimes it is non-correlated to any of the metals. Auto sales, supply deficits, Russia, and South Africa can be big movers in the space, which is unlike Gold or Silver.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:19 PM

    The fed will raise .25 and do qe4 at the same time. Nobody will know what to do then.

      Mar 13, 2015 13:30 PM

      You have a fat chance to be right.

      Mar 14, 2015 14:52 AM

      As Big Al would say, “veeeerrrrry interesting”.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:13 PM

    Look like Great Britain does not want to go down with the ship. It is trying to join China’s financial circle. US is getting mad and criticizing UK of being too close to Beijing and making too many accommodations.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/u-k-seeks-to-join-china-s-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank

      Mar 13, 2015 13:10 PM

      Lawrence

      Thanks for the link. I think this might be HUGE. One of the “Five Eyes” glancing towards Asia?

      Brian

      Mar 13, 2015 13:14 PM

      Why not join? Britain has a long history with China and Hong Kong.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:15 PM

    Its the only logical “dumb ass” thing to do that they have left in their bag of tricks.

    Mar 13, 2015 13:38 PM

    ********** UPDATE: LATEST ON NEW GOLD PHYSICAL EXCHANGE/ TURD FERGUSON **********
    ” MAKING THE LBMA OBSOLETE !!! ” ****** A MUST LISTEN *****
    http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/6685/making-lbma-obsolete

      Mar 13, 2015 13:40 PM

      HEY BIG AL…………………….how about talking to Turd?

    Mar 14, 2015 14:13 AM

    Gary, you mentioned recently that you say a rally in oil up to the $65 to $70 range before heading south again to new lows. With the action in oil recently, dropping to $45, do you still see that? I b

    Mar 14, 2015 14:51 AM

    We need to limit Birdman to 200 comments or less a day. I think he likes to hear himself type. lol I might be buying Russia next week since RUSL just had a nice correction. Anyone else buying the Rooskie Bear?

    Mar 14, 2015 14:17 PM

    I posted this In Dec / Jan. TA can be useless…What I do know is this one has a track record 14 yrs of calling it very close or right every year. Their the headers I cut out the details…

    1. Commodities will continue to be weak and the ones that aren’t down too much yet (like copper), in our opinion, are likely to fall.
    2. The US economy will continue to surprise to the upside in 2015.
    3. A European crisis is looming as many problems still remain.
    4. A housing recovery in the US should continue in 2015.
    5. The US dollar will get even stronger in 2015.
    8. US stock market volatility in 2015.
    9. China could devalue their currency in 2015

    Mar 15, 2015 15:40 AM

    Beware!!! Gold bug area. Anyone against gold will be shot on site!

      Mar 15, 2015 15:33 PM

      Huh?

    Mar 15, 2015 15:49 PM

    Just kidding Al not everyone here is a gold bugggggg.