Oil, gold and conventional markets
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Gasoline is up because of strikes at many refiners.
Im done with trying to predict where everything is headed. I will say this, if everything else pretty much has tapped 2008 lows and in some cases broken through, I would think that my long time call of 35/40 wti hae some merit and my crb 200 has merit.
As far as gold is concerned, It surely looks like a wedge that is about to break down hard. Im not going to play hero here and I much rather see first which way this thing breaks. This 1130/1150 region has been testing to many times for my liking. I will move away.
All the best to others if you can profit from these markets.
Exactly my point glenfidish, let the market show you the direction
Gary is “maybe” “we’ll see” “should be” “it is” “it isn’t”
Just alot of rubbish, let the market talk to you.
Peter
Peter, Peter, Peter,
You called the exact top in gold with your “to the moon nonsense”.
I’ve been calling for a retest of the all time highs in the Nasdaq for over a year now.
I’ve done everything I can think off to focus invetors in the stock market where the Fed has your back and the manipulation is in ones favor.
you continue to fight the bullion banks in the sector most heavily manipulated against investors.
Between the two of us I’m the only one listening to the market. You are listening to the voices in your head 🙂
Ha!!!
The conventional market is supported and gold market is suppressed. We can see that clearly. We can either choose the stay in gold with the mindset of manipulated market. If bullion banks can suppress gold down forever, we should just give up. However, they definitely cannot since production cost will go up due to the money printing. Keeping the price this low will reduce supply due to mine shut down. There is also a lot of stress in financial market, if US dollar loses dominance, gold price will be reset to a higher value.
As for conventional market there is opportunity and danger as well. You don’t know the limit and motive of market manipulation up. If you are sure that they can push it up forever, you can buy the dips and stay long. However, why did the crash of 2000 and 2008 happen? Can it happen again. For people who bought in gold in 2011 they are already lost half, a conventional market crash will kill their portfolio if they make the switch at this point or even last year. A manipulated market makes every one a gambler but it is hard to win if we gamble. The house always wins.
Gary that just shows your ignorance, nobody on this blog that i’m aware of has advocated “to the moon”.
This very simply, go back to Nov 7th 2014 and dig up JUST ONE comment from anyone stating the gold market was going “to the moon” and that inclues anything that I have posted.
Gary, Gary, Gary forget about the Nasdaq, what about your Oil call right a the top of the market, around 109 a barrel, it has done nothing but come down to 43. I guess you don’t remember that BIG ONE. Gary you own that ONE.
Funny thing is after the Swiss Gold Referendum you called the turn in the Gold and Miners but in just 3 days you let Big Al and Cory talk you out of it with their sideline talk, unbeleivable, no highly unprofessional.
You want to make all these calls without putting any money down, if the call is correct you want credit and if the call is incorrect well we’ll sweep in under the rug.
Imagine that.
Total crap.
I live in the real world where my bank account keeps score.
And again it is my stops that make my decision on the way out.
Keep playing with your 2 headed coin Gary.
It won’t take long for people to see through that.
Peter
Oh, come on Glen…. You are a valuable voice on this blog and I weigh you perspectives as worth considering every day. Just on Friday I was considering 2 different tracks for Mon/Tues based on your thoughts:
On March 13, 2015 at 2:53 pm,
Shad says:
Glen – If gold does gap down hard to 1137-1130 on Mon or Tue as you mentioned, then I’m going to take a more aggressive position planning on a reversal, especially if the dollar also hits 101-102. Personally, I still feel we’d wait until later in Spring to test those lows.
It is also possible that we just trade sideways into the FOMC meeting on the 18th, and then pop afterwards when people realize that the Fed is Not raising rates until later in the year. This is more the direction I am expecting over a steep decline in gold, but I have learned to expect the unexpected!
Also, the dollar is down from the 100+ level, so as I mentioned last week, it could have topped “temporarily” at the 100.39, but I’d give it room to get to 102 tomorrow as we discussed at length last week. However, if things continue to tread mildly sideways to down in Gold and the dollar into tomorrow, then I expect the 2 week pop in Gold, the Euro, the Loonie, and the Australian dollar. Also, Mid-tier miners and the Majors should take off first, as they’ve really done a better job reducing cash costs over the last 2 years.
P.S. – the last paragraph with dollar thoughts was from today.
Shad no doubt your scenario can play out, and the timeline fits well with a summer low. I will not leave completely I will always chime in. My trading portfolio has been put on hold. My long term is still intact and I will not add until market bottoms.
At this point your theory makes sense since gold/miners have been going sideways and slightly up. Bird calling a top on dollar and bottom on euro is also an indicator although he could be bluffing. Bird absent today is also another indicator that gold may be ready for pop. All speculation and I will leave the trading to the pros like matt,shad, LPG who by the way has been missing in action. LPG thought on gold/miners for this next two weeks would be appreciated?
Regards
glen
Thanks Glen. Well we hope to hear your thoughts often, as you have a good perspective.
Yes, Where in the world is LPG??
I always take the time to check out what he has to say as well, but he has been MIA. At one point he was doing a desert trip, so maybe he is out enjoying the world we live in.
Don’t be so suspicious Glen. Usually when I am not here it is because I have lost my connection. This is Africa, man, not downtown New York and the whole place in under development. Kind of gigantic continent sized work in progress. Most of yesterday we were in a communications blackout. No phones, no cells and no internet. Who the hell knows why, they usually don’t tell us.
And no, I am not bluffing. Why would I bluff? This isn’t Poker.
Al all you ever say is you agree…with whoever..
Just want to reminded everyone that the biggest single thing effecting the miners today is not the gold price it is the oil price. Watch for a turn in the miners not the gold.
Peter
+1!
I do think the oil price will continue to help the miners Peter. I think the currency exchange is having an even bigger positive effect for miners in Canada, Australia, and Asia. The spot price is, of course, very important, but since mines are independent businesses, then there are some that are managed well that will exceed expectations, and some that aren’t managed well that will be in hot water soon.
Are you for real, oil dropped from 110 a barrel to 43 and that does’nt have a major effect on all miners, who are you kidding. Shake your head Shad.
Peter
No I am in agreement Peter, and I said it will continue to help the miners. The currency exchange is a bigger overall credit, as referenced by countless miners at the GSA, BMO, and PDAC mining shows the last 2 months.
When asked directly about the oil price declines, most mining CEO agreed, but also stated that the real benefit lately has been the currency exchange. Check the numbers on most press releases on earnings, and you’ll see substantial help to revenues in the currency exchange credits.
That is all I was saying.
Shad I believe allied nevada ceo messed up with some type of hedging on the currency. He went all in on hopes canadian dollar would rise and got taken to the shed.
What are your thoughts on candian miners and how they operate via currency? I assume most of there cost are in the currency of which jurisdiction they are in. For example if i own a canadian miner, all there expense should be in canadian dollars like oil,equipment, energy etc etc.. Is that your understanding as wel?
The question is in what currency do they sell there gold? I assume candian.
I think as a blanket statement 60% of all miners are of Canadian origin, and quite a few are Australian or of US origin. The US miners will profit the least since both gold and expenses are priced in dollars. Most of the Canadian and Australian miners should do well keeping their expenses in their currencies when possible. However, it needs to be addressed on a case by case situation, as there are companies that always sell Gold in US dollars, but some that sell through tolling agreements, NSR, or JV agreements in the local currency. Some Canadian or Australian miners are based there but doing business in Mexico, or Peru or Argentina or Chile, so that adds in another currency tier, and of course, different tax structures.
For me it comes down to the “Quality Management” that everyone is always touting and I also agree. To me quality management knows how and when to hedge, what the best operational costs and credits will be, will anticipate and lobby local, regional, and national governments for favorable tax laws, and will take into account the different deltas in price on Gold in US dollars versus local currencies, the business expenses, price trends, labor trends, fuel trends, and marketplace dynamics.
PS – I am still confused on why Allied Nevada thought that the Canadian currency would rise overall in an environment with such a strong dollar. Not a sound plan….yet.
Glen, it is the jurisdiction the company is listed in that would determine the currency for purposes of the companies financial statements. So the company could be in Canada and benefit from the falling CAD where gold is concerned but once they report and convert back to USD for shareholders the advantages look less spectacular. Anyway, it’s because the Canadian dollar is falling, not that gold is rising that there is an appearance of more gain in Canadian dollar terms but that’s a little deceptive. Gold is still priced in USD and that is the only currency that matters here.
Oil dropping from 110 to 43 hasn’t helped the big miners of Rio Tinto BHP Billiton though? They are nearer lows than highs.
The advantages in higher revenue from oil being down and the currency exchanges are just now showing up and likely will be better reflected when 1st Quarter numbers are reported.
Most of the stocks should get a boost if everything flat-lines, but the if metal pricing does go down further in April/May then that would be a headwind against the better revenues.
The problem with Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton is that they spot prices of certain base metals have plummeted the last 2 years, so the underlying commodity price is still obviously of primary importance.
I saw and interview with David Morgan recently where the industry standard is a $1 increase in commodity valuation for Gold is like saving $2 in expenses. So the spot price is important to all miners.
The point being made is that a reduction in fuel costs helps with drilling costs, moving equipment around, and the hauling of ore in trucks. Obviously the fuel costs differ from company to company depending on how much drilling are they doing, if they have a mill on site or have to transport their ore, how far they haul their ore, are they open pit or underground, do they have access to rail, do they fly in supplies via airplane, etc…
The point many mining CEOs made, is that while oil prices being down helps, that they were most helped by the currency exchange.
Peter and Matt,
You could very well could be right! The trend has been when oil going down, miner and gold have been heading up. This trend has been intact since November. It very well could be that gary has the cycle wrong and wti is heading lower not higher and the metals/miners will benefit from it. So yes the key would be for wti to put in a lower close today.. So far it is on track. If wti closes below 44.38 then gold may start to move.
Again food for thought.
I bought some UUP puts today along with several more juniors. Got filled twice for more IPT as it pulled an “AXU” today. Average price was 16.4 cents Canadian. o_0
Anyway my point is the turn will come in the miners not gold.
Peter
Exactly. Like I pointed out weeks ago, if oil had stayed at $100, gold would have had to rise to $2,900 in order to reach the recent gold-oil ratio of 29. Yes there is more to mining costs than oil, but it is still a big deal that gold has more than doubled versus oil. In addition, miners that operate in currencies other than the USD have seen wages come down as well.
Absolutely.
I agree as well Peter, and I have been saying for a while that the turn will come in the miners first before the spot price.
Shad, dead is dead not even cheap oil can breath life into the Saudi King that just died.
Peter
Peter, What???
I am not sure why you are sending me statements like this about oil. All I said was that the currency exchange credits were of far more importance to the miners than the low oil prices, but I agreed with you that they were both helpful for mining companies.
Go back and listen to the 20-30 interviews with mining CEOs from the previous 3 mining shows the GSA, BMO, and PDAC on multiple websites, and they were all asked about effect of lower oil prices. They all agreed that it definitely helped, but also pointed out the real boost was the dollar strength, while they were paying their business costs in Canadian, Australian, Asian, or South American currencies that were weak.
That is all I was say, and was not talking about oil price direction or the Saudi King my friend.
Are you not well informed Big Al.
Why don’t you put your money in the broader stock market 🙂
Peter
interesting blog from Gary, we’re going down then up then down again all the way out to 2016. Also now talk that oil going nowhere until dollar comes down. Now that’s a revelation. Oil crested and started it’s decline coincidental with the dollar bottom mid last year and has been, as is normally the case, inversely correlated to the dollar. So much for that price change in oil following mid term elections, or some cycle low point and breakout in early February.
Aside from Gary, there is a growing doomsayer contingent over the weekend. Guys with full moons, blood moons, fib counts, astro etc etc. At least in short term they are going to be wrong on market.
I still maintain this thing will be lower in fall than now, irrespective of pop ups.
as for gold, as I said last week, holding remarkably well considering the dollar rise. best to watch for now to see the break up or down before reacting
John,
There are a lot very good traders that have been wrong lately. It’s a hard market for anyone to call. Gary has been real good calling the conventional stocks.
Chartster
Gary has been calling the bottom of the Commodity market forever, he’ll be right one of these days.
He was calling to go long at the absolute top of the Oil market at 109, it has gone down ever since.
That Oil call would have wiped any individual off the map.
Again, part with your money and subscribe to his recommendations and then you can be your own judge.
Peter
oil going down per/bbl but the price at the pump went back up 75 cents in the last 2 months? the oil refiners were losing money, are they getting it back now?. then we always get a bump at the pump in the summer when everyone goes on vacation. what do you think about that?