A little more focus on gold and gold stocks
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LPG,
Hi nice to see you here in action! Are you buying shares or what exactly?
Hello Glenfidish,
Hope you are well.
Shares indeed.
Best,
LPG
That has to be the fastest reply I have ever seen. LPG thanks kindly as we all respect and value your calls.
cheers and best!
Lol ! I didn’t realize that π
Best,
LPG
LPG – glad you are back! Glen and I were just chatting yesterday that we missed your input and figured you may be on another desert journey : – )
I picked up a few shares today on the big dip as well, because after the initial gyrations from the pre and post FOMC meeting tomorrow, I there are some that will get a nice pop.
Cheers mate!
LPG,
I forgot to add if you were adding based on short term or longer term?
Do you think gold breaks 1130? this year?
Glenfidish,
I am adding for short-term to play a swing.
Re: gold, I have no clue if it will break 1130.
You know that in terms of gold, I don’t think in terms “it will do this, it will do that”. This is not my game – I leave this to others.
I prefer to being open-minded re: events occurring, and being prepared to act in case they occur.
Best to you,
LPG
Well said! LPG I like your strategy and please post often as direction you may be taking or what you may be seeing.
Also on a side note, I heard you were touring on vacation, if so I hope you had a fantastic time and plenty of time to recharge the brain cells :)..
One last note to all, I will be gone from 20th-24th as tis the season of march break in canada..Looking for some salt water/ocean activity and recharging the fuel cells.
All the best to you PLG π
Glenfidish,
Re: your comment at 12:56…
I assume you meant “LPG”, not PLG. π
I don’t think I went on vacation “recently”….fwiw. So not sure what you “heard”…
Best to you, and enjoy your upcoming break.
LPG
LPG,
Geeze that is two times you catch me with my pants down lol.. Sorry.. disregard
and thank you.:)
LPG – I thought you were on a trip for a week or two in the desert a month or so back and you mentioned you would not have internet access. That was my bad if you were not on that trip, but I thought it was somewhere more remote in the middle east that you were talking about visiting.
LPG – Just so you know we care buddy, here is the post from yesterday:
On March 16, 2015 at 11:07 am,
glenfidish says:
Shad no doubt your scenario can play out, and the timeline fits well with a summer low. I will not leave completely I will always chime in. My trading portfolio has been put on hold. My long term is still intact and I will not add until market bottoms.
At this point your theory makes sense since gold/miners have been going sideways and slightly up. Bird calling a top on dollar and bottom on euro is also an indicator although he could be bluffing. Bird absent today is also another indicator that gold may be ready for pop. All speculation and I will leave the trading to the pros like matt,shad, LPG who by the way has been missing in action. LPG thought on gold/miners for this next two weeks would be appreciated?
Regards
glen
On March 16, 2015 at 11:10 am,
Shad says:
Thanks Glen. Well we hope to hear your thoughts often, as you have a good perspective.
Yes, Where in the world is LPG??
I always take the time to check out what he has to say as well, but he has been MIA. At one point he was doing a desert trip, so maybe he is out enjoying the world we live in.
Glenfidish, Shad,
A few things…
First, apologies for this belated comment/response.
Second re: me apparently MIA π
I was indeed camping in the desert a few weeks back. That was for … errr…. 2 days π π π
I think i had mentioned i wouldn’t be posting – but internet access was available (i sent pics to Cory and Al while there π )
Third: i check kereport daily…and i totally missed Glenfidish comment/question from March 16@ 11:07 am, so my sincere apologies for the lack of response.
To answer the question from Glenfidish’s post, i am adding exposure for what should be viewed as relatively short-term – this is basically what i meant by “for a swing” in a post above. I am not specifying what “short-term” means here as i just play the charts on this occasion for potential bounces – which can last a few days, a few weeks, or… not happen at all. Hope that’s clear.
Lastly: this vacation thingy and the MIA comment made me laugh. π
Best to you both gents, and GL to all investing/trading
LPG
Thank LPG. I feel a little more sane now (but not much : – ) knowing that at least I had recalled correctly that you were on a desert camping trip recently. For some reason that is why I thought you were out of internet range recently, but hey, at least you know you were missed.
I concur that now is a good point for a swing trade. For me a swing trade literally be a day or two or 2-3 weeks depending on how things play out, and we’ll have to wait and see how much conviction there is between the bounce in PMs, the Euro, and the Loonie to gage an exit point.
Good luck and happy trading!
That should have said “gauge” an exit point.
LPG,
Thank you for the response.
cheers
Glenfidish, Shad,
All good – no worries.
GL for today and the rest of the week.
Best to you both,
LPG
There is the calm before the storm…….. All eyes on the FOMC
And to be fully transparent, I am looking to redeploy more into potential slight weakness into tomorrow after FOMC statement – ie between now and tomorrow’s close.
Best to all,
LPG
Agreed. I sold many of positions in gold / silver miners in Jan and Early Feb and took some chips off the table because I didn’t like Gold failure to correct and then keep moving above 1308 to test 1347 and 1382. I forecast there would be a sell down into the season of March and the PDAC curse would strike and it did.
As mentioned for a while, I thought the dollar would put in a short-term top around 100-102, and that gold would put in a short-term bottom and swing trade for a week or two reversal. What I am still not sure of is if the dollar topped out at 100.50 last week or if that may happen tomorrow or if the 102 number is still in play based on the FOMC announcement.
Regardless, Gold is oversold at present and looking for a reason for a short term counter-trend move to the upside. I think the next day or so will provide that reason, and so I took positions in silver companies on Friday, and in Gold companies today. I do still have another tier to deploy tomorrow if we get an exaggerated move down.
Best luck to you sir!
* (and sorry for incorrectly stating your travel schedule into the Middle Eastern desert). I thought that is what you said….. : – )
Ah-Ha! He was in the desert on trip, but just not this week…. : – ) Funny.
Good luck to all post-FOMC chaos today…..we are in the calm before the storm.
Hi Doc, glad to hear you like NEM. I got several thousand shares of that when they merged with the old Franco-Nevada. I rode it up over 70 and then back down to 18. Should I sell it if it gets to 100? It may go a lot higher than that if gold goes to 5K.
To elaborate a touch on what Richard mentioned, here’s the latest on the options side, from Zero:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-17/options-market-signals-2007-crash-risk-goldman-warns
Best,
LPG
I really only have ONE fear these days: The general market will start to fall precipitously and drag all of my (ridiculously low priced) PM stocks with it.
There might be an initial correlation but I don’t think it will be anything like 2008. In ’08, gold, gold stocks and conventional stocks were at all-time highs. The HUI was up 1,300% from its low, 8 years earlier. Lots of investors held at least some exposure to the gold space. Meanwhile, the dollar had just an all time low. Now, after one of the worst bear markets for gold and gold miners, how many investors hold any exposure at all? I think gold stocks will be flying while Joe Blow is getting hit with margin calls and has nothing but falling stocks to sell. If maximum wealth transfer is the name of the game, the setup looks brilliant.
I’m not going to fight the last battle, but most probably will.
That is a good observation Matthew. We are in a much different marketplace where currencies, equities, and commodities are at much different points in their cycles, so it will be a different kind of movement, with people holding different allocations of currencies, equities, and commodities now.
I agree that very few investors in the US or Canada are holding many mining stocks any more, and neither are all the institutional funds or Hedge funds like they were in 2008. The thoughts about Joe Blow getting margin calls with nothing but falling stocks to sell is how I felt in 2011 : – ( However, the marketplace moves in cycles, and very soon (Sept/Oct) that is how Joe Blow in the general markets will feel. I intend to capitalize on the violent correction in the S&P and Russell 2000……but not until they have their blow off tops this summer/fall.
Paper assets can go to zero but metal in hand is more resistant to going to zero. It can be stolen but that is a matter of the difference between could and will. If you personally have it there is a chance it could be stolen. If you put it in the bank then it will be exposed quite nicely to lending or confiscation at the whim of politicians and bankers and there is excellent evidence that they have plenty of experience at such stealing by other means.
Good points Steven.
I encourage everyone to read this article that LPG linked. Some of the charts are just mind-blowing. It is nearly impossible to read this article and NOT think that there will be a substantial market crash (>25% decrease) in 2015/2016
I would like to eventually own SQQQ (3x Bear Nasdaq), but just haven’t had the courage to start a position.
Brian,
My 2cts, if I may…
1) the higher, the better to short Nasdaq (stating the obvious)
2) m-a-y-b-e you would feel more comfi in owning Puts in order bet against the Nasdaq ? The issue obviously is that you have not only to pick strike, but an expiry as well.
BUT I would opine that if we have another decent move up in the Nasdaq, some puts are gonna become cheaper (that’s obvious) so if you bet for a 2015 snap, maybe you can look at Dec 2015 puts.
For a full disclaimer:
* I am not considering shorting the Nasdaq – I barely follow that index. Just sharing thoughts.
* HOWEVER, I keep on the back of my mind SPY puts on a push higher (likely Dec 2015 expiry)AND SPY Calls assuming we get a nice snap (expiry will be contingent upon when the snap initially occurs and ends).
Again, my 2cts.
Best to you and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
If one expects a long grind down into next year, why buy any at all right now, except to make some short term profits on the countertrends and then buy them back up again?
Yep, all I am doing is swing trading at present. I personally believe we’ll see the slow grind down overall in commodities until May/June. At that point the dollar should be topping (although it may take until September if the Fed waits until then raise rates 25 or 50 basis points).
That kind of a move in September would spike the dollar (110?) at that point, and could delay the bottoming in commodities. We’ll just have to see how it goes.
CMC; good point. However, from history, one often sees PM stocks bottom first and even rise with falling PM prices. And it’s not like I’m betting the farm down here. As you mention, it also allows me to decide whether or not I want to take tradable profits.
Thanks for you answer, Doc. Makes good sense to me. Glad to see you back on more often.
I agree Doc, and I picked up some silver miners on Friday and some gold miners today (Tuesday). The PMs are near bottom, but I feel the miners are set for a pop for a week or two because they are oversold again, and dollar either just put in it’s temporary top last week around 100.39-100.5, or the 102 target may still get tagged if the FOMC meeting gets dicey tomorrow afternoon.
Either way, there are some very good companies at great places to start building positions, but in some I intend just to swing trade them up for a week or two.
May everyone have prosperous investing this week!
If we get a big snap down post FOMC or tomorrow I may add to some of my positions in silver and gold miners and ETFs.
Keep a close eye on things today and tomorrow and be nimble.
Just to add to what Richard mentioned @ 10:52am:
a B-U-N-C-H of PM stocks are (quite) above their June 2013 levels while gold is lower – late June 2013 bottom was 1182 if I recall correctly.
Something to “reflect” on. π
Best to all,
LPG
The high in 2011 for the gold price was an entry into a fully optioned gold market against derivatives which are meant to corner all of the financial interest in this market, not a parabolic blowoff.
Interesting thought FranSix.
STRANGE MOVE!!!
GLD: 180K and 120K bought spiking the price up to 111.00 region
Possible bottom formedβ¦
For those still interested in Theralase the daily is looking interesting. I was going to hold out for under 0.35 but I’ve added to my position yesterday as it looks like the stock wants to pop, it is the second day in a row it has closed at the high of the day. Time will tell : )
Nice comment on the put/call ….Doc……………..
Hi Doc:
Off topic but non the less still interesting, Resource World magazine has an interesting article on GeoMegA Resources and their breakthrough using electricity as apposed to the use of standard organic solvent chemical process in the separation of REE’s.
If proved commercially viable,this process could become a “disruptive technology””resulting in lower capitol and operating costs.
Might be something to keep one’s eye on.
John; thanks for the tip. I’m doing some research on the stock—-very interesting.
I had seen something about that John K. Good thoughts as the REE space will be separating the weak from the strong over the next year, and the whole space should start grinding gradually higher. There has been a little life in it lately with higher trading volumes and a little more action. Thanks!
Doc said, “The important thing is patience.” Is Doc as patient as Janet Yellen?
Doc, do you think gold will break below $1130 in this down cycle? I recall you said weeks ago that you thought gold would bottom between the $1180 and $1130 lows in this correction and we are there at present .
Dave, the odds are that gold moves lower then $1130. It may not happen at this point since the odds are for a correction higher but the monthly chart doesn’t give me a lot of comfort that it holds here. We would need a significant move up in April to make me a believer that we hold here. Also, the long term uptrend line for gold is now being compromised and if we close a couple of months below it, that more then likely will define a grind lower over time. I don’t believe gold will just fold but it’ll grind lower. What I don’t particularly like is that the lower bollinger band on the monthly chart is turning down along with the BB 20 month MA—-I do not like that picture.
Doc ? i looking Seabridge gold SEA What you think ?
Hi, Franky; I’ve been watching Seabridge for some time. Techincally, I believe you may be able to purchase it in the future for less then $5.00—somewhere between 2.5 and 5 dollars. In fact it looks like it could fall a little more and then rally. After the rally, the odds are it continues one more leg down.
MMM REALY THANK’S ! GOD ! INJOY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vvVt4lDSPeY
For the last 2-3 weeks multiple blogs and talking heads have been sure we’d go below 1130 any day. I’ve consistently stated that while I believe we will absolutely test that Nov low, that I would be surprised to see it this soon. It is more likely that we’ve been basing here and will pop up for counter-trend rally for the next 2 weeks post FOMC.
Of course, the markets love to have fits around these FOMC meetings and parse every stinking word the Fed utters (Patience) (considerable time) (data-dependent) and on and on. As a result, I am keeping the door open for a potential “outside day” tomorrow or at least some large swings in the markets as people try to guess, then second guess, and then over-react. This means the dollar could still get near 101-102 and gold could go down and test the 1130 level.
My best hypothesis is that gold will save the test of 1130 for later in the spring after we get the counter-trend move, and miners are poised to rise for a bit.
Good luck tomorrow everyone!
Shad, I believe we have a good chance to see it unfold the way you posted.
Thanks Doc, we all appreciate your thoughts and outlook and together we’re all more well informed.
We’ll see how things go post-FOMC and Thursday, and go at it from there : – )
Doc,
The weekly chart on majority of miners is showing more to the downside. Im not saying we can’t have a pop her for 2-8 days or more but the weekly says lower. The only thing that would change my views would be for gold to take off and very soon along with miners and not look back. Im trying to take it day by day and week by week approach but also keeping in mind like yourself that monthly chart. 3.5 years of a bear is unbelievable and unprecedented. At some point if we are to break higher like Marty armstrong says, we must end this bear and equities begin to roll over. When? im done guessing..Carefull here as we have a wedge which can break either way. If up i say the bottom is in..If down this bear has a way to go.
That is a valid point Glen, and things could still break really hard to the downside in PMs. It depends on the direction coming out of the Fed meeting and what kinds of fits and starts we have for the next few days.
I absolutely think we’ll go lower eventually, but think a counter-trend move to the upside is due, and the news frenzy the next 2 days over the Fed may just give the markets the justification to go long gold & miners for a little “central bank protection”.
Hope everyone is well.
I’ve been adding to positions today as well, fwiw.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG