The Doctor is In
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I hope everyone is noticing we are probably going to hit 1.07 Euro today and perhaps even exceed it slightly. The dollar / euro reversal is here in my view and it is technically being reinforced ahead of the FOMC.
I am curious at to whether the dollar topped and Euro bottomed last week as well Bird, but am keeping the door open for a FOMC freakout where the dollar still may hit the 102 Fib number and then turn down.
To me it is looking like the reversal is already taking place, and Gold, Silver, and Palladium are up so far today with the Euro. However, this could all change on a dime over the balance of today and in particular tomorrow.
So it appears that PMs are taking a nice little pop here, but is this the headfake or the follow through that the short term correction is beginning?
At least at this moment, I am glad I bought positions on Friday and yesterday just in case we popped, as there is a nice bit a green on my board now : – )
I would NOT trust this gold pop too much.
Yeah, the jury is still out until tomorrow, and things could easily reverse. However, if we go up again tomorrow, then I think that will be confirmation that the 2 week corrective move up in PMs the Euro and the Loonie is underway.
I would also point out that will the dollar going down to 97.08 that it really appears that the 100.39 was the temporary top in the dollar last week as I mentioned when it happened. That leads me to believe we have started the anticipated corrective wave up in commodities and currencies other than the dollar.
This is a re-post from the 12 & 13 where I mentioned to Glen that we may have put in a double- top in the dollar at that point.
On March 12, 2015 at 11:00 am,
Shad says:
However, we can’t rule out completely that last night may have been the top in the dollar when it tagged 100. Need to see of the dollar/euro parity idea plays out or if we are already starting the short-term dollar correction and PM bounce.
On March 13, 2015 at 1:56 pm,
Shad says:
Well Glenfidish – the dollar essentially went up and tagged 100.39, which is like a double top from 2 nights ago. This could be noting a top in the dollar, but I’ll consent that due to the FOMC meeting next week, we may get one last push to 102 at the beginning of next week. I really don’t expect the Fed to raise rates at this meeting, but maybe some do.
So as a follow up today on the FOMC meeting….. Since the Fed postponed the rate increase, then the dollar came off some and PMS went up. That seems fairly straight-forward to me, but yes anything can happen.
Your instincts were telling you right, Shad. Good call. Notice how many articles this week are still talking about dollar strength though. ZH posted at least three in the past 24 hours. They are already behind the news.
Thanks Birdman.
Yes, there were quite a few articles touting a higher dollar (too many really), and that was telling my gut and mind it was probably the short term top in the dollar last week, because of all the dollar bullishness. I did, however, want to keep an open mind, because I could see where IF the Fed had raised rates that the dollar could have surged to 102 before correcting. That isn’t what happened though.
We’ll see what happens tomorrow, but it looks like Dollar down, Euro & Loonie up, and PMs up.
Check out what happened to the price of Gold going down in all other currencies except the Dollar. I think that is further evidence that we are in the counter-trend move.
I think you are correct. Like I said, your instincts were really good on this one. Not sure if you recall our exchange from back on the 13th but here it is in case you think I didn’t remember.
You get the ribbons and gold stars after all….Cheers man!
—————————–
On March 13, Shad says:
“I’ve been waiting for over the last 4 months as a point where the dollar would put in a temporary top. We may have a little more to go, but if it hits 101-102 I’d start shorting the dollar and agree that one could also go long the Euro or Loonie.
On March 13, Birdman says:
You might be right Shad. You get the ribbons and gold stars if this is really the top.
————————-
Good call on the Loonie too, Shad.
Oh yeah…. the ribbons and stars discussion. Thanks!
I know you were looking at pretty much the same scenario playing out, so right back atcha!
Al has to start giving out awards to you guys on great days like this.
Well that is a nice thought Birdman. Best to you.
Hey, a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while, right? : – )
Birdman
Totally agreeing with you (+ some, as ”not one bit”).
One will *almost* always find the proverbial ”knee-jerk response” to {pre- & post-] FOMC statements.
Checking the charts [1- or 5-] minute bands, for the last 5+ years, readily discloses this ( specifically the 8.15 – 9.30 am, NY time, ”pop-or-drop” & the +/- 20 minute ”pop-or-drop / drop-or-pop” time interval preceding/following the FOMC’s ”real-time” web-published statement(s).
To clarify the ”FOMC” acronym here: FOMC= Federal Organization for Mangy Chihuahas, of which the present spokesperson-yelper is Janet ”Old Yeller” Yellen [ you might recall an old TV series with a dog named ”Old Yeller” in it..? 😀 & LOL)
Anyway …
Cheers to U in ”S.A.”
— P.S.
BTW, what country / township do you reside in exactly (you always mention ”East Africa”)?
Me?…I’m in ”East Canada” – Province= Ontario – City= Toronto – Population= 2.5 million+
– Date Founded – oh…never mind…
There, now – your turn to ponuup re geo-physical self-disclosure 😉 ]
” ‘Cheers to U in ”S.A.’ ” is better than ” ‘Cheers to U in ”U.S.A.’ ”…no? – LOL
CORRECTION 1:
Totally agreeing with you (+ some, as ”not one bit”). SHOULD’VE READ:
Totally agreeing with you (+ some, as opposed to ”not one bit”).
and
CORRECTION 2:
Cheers to U in ”S.A.” SHOULD’VE READ:
Cheers to U in ”E.A.”
Yes LPG, this could have been the proverbial Knee-jerk reaction to the FOMC, and things could very well correct tomorrow. However with the dollar selling off so hard, it does appear the short term top is in, and this should help out the PMs.
There isn’t a whole lot of new information to sustain a very long upleg in PMs, so this seems more like an excuse for a technical counter-trend rally in the PM bear.
Thursday is a brand new day, and some of the action could easily be reversed, but I hope things continue up in the PMs for a little while before the slow grind down into spring.
Home is wherever you rest your head at night, LFP. It is the place you feel welcome and have good neighbors.
Ha Ha!! Y’ah kill me, Bird, y’ah just kill me.
I’m sending a postcard to your address.
Let me know when it arrives. 🙂
Cheers
THE WIFE must have kicked him out of the house for a night…..lol
You might be right Bird. But we still need to see what Granny has to say..
They can tighten into a weakening dollar, especially as European QE will draw capital into Euro markets as we see equities there rise. That’s all I need to know to confirm my suspicions. I think a rate hike is on the table and I side with those who believe today’s message will reinforce Fed intentions to do just that. So not too many doubts here. But like you I will watch and see.
Good points Bird. I think a rate hike could be in the cards.
Look at everything else that is happening. Jack Lew asking congress to pass the 2010 reforms, which is the biggest thing going on right now. The treasury is robbing from government pension funds to run the country right now. Congress needs to get off their asses! The London exchange closes tomorrow, and that’s a huge deal too!
Everything is coming to a head here. This might be a long term top in the dollar.
To clarify: The London gold fix closes tomorrow and the Shanghai exchange sets the price of gold. ( cause they ” actually have it “.
Well, I guess if we went ahead and got the rate hike over with now, it would be mostly priced in as several have mentioned. The question is, would the dollar spike up more, and does the Fed want to be accused of sending the dollar higher? When multinational companies like US Steel, Ford, and Hasbro are already running into problems overseas due to the higher dollar, do you believe they’ll hike rates right here or wait until September?
Good point about the London gold fix closing tomorrow Chartster. I haven’t heard that discussed much in the main stream media (of course).
I guess Doc and Rick have opposite views.
I think DOC , is correct….no rate increase…….jawboning only……
Sorry, Doc says gold up Rick says down, big time if 1125 doesn’t hold.
Well, the word patient is out Jerry. What does that tell you?
Tells me gold is going higher…………………
OH MY GOLD SPIKED…………..
I wonder if that’s Docs “pop”.
I thought the general consensus was gold down this summer.
all Babble………NO BODY KNOWS ANYTHING FOR SURE….all guessing. No disrespect for a chart reader….but they are man made charts
THRU AND FRIDAY………GOLD UP…..just like I said………………
I have been busy ………so did they increase rates today?
or just using one word at a time, for all the morons to hold on to every breathe the SHE DEVIL says………..
THROW a BONE to the ……..JAWBONER YELLEN……
Doc, would you be surprised if gold had a good rally sooner…?a la Avi…?
Bird, what about the Euro eating it with Greece…???I mean bond holders
If Greece leaves the Euro then the Euro would stabilize and likely rise versus the dollar. At this stage there is a sense of no-confidence in most of the parties involved in the debt dispute and it has been taxing the energies of all involved while creating a sense of confusion and distraction within the region. When a dispute like this goes on too long you only end up dividing populations as people tend to take sides for and against. So the public disagreements of the Greek Finance Minister, Tsipras and the German / IMF, Brussels response is becoming quite divisive within the Union. I am beginning to suspect that Greece will not leave voluntarily but could be sacrificed as a lesson to other members who might also think departure is an easy process. In other words, the leadership may be ready to cut Greece loose and just absorb the losses to establish discipline. Greece’s coming default and hardships will no doubt enlighten all others of the dangers entailed by challenging the center and thinking it is the easy way out.
According to zerohedge a 95% loss on greek debt is expected.
Awhile back Russia offered support to Greece, that oil line planned to go through Turkey could go through Greece.
Spain is experiencing protests over Russian sanctions.
What would be the lesson to other nations if Greece exits the EU and is supported by Russia?
Im just saying, there are a lot of variables to this.
Heck, couldn’t Greece start using the Ruble? A black swan is something nobody sees coming.
BB, did you see that clip of Varoufakis saying that Greece might conceivably default within the EZ and keep suing the Euro anyway? In other words, the Greeks would not leave and also they would not change currencies. They would not be alone. Other non member states already use the Euro instead of their own currency.
Not sure I did see it.
But they are not going to want Greece to leave, they have a veto with nato.
They could continue using the Euro, they could also go back to Dracma.
I only mention the possibility of them using the Ruble as its not something expected, Cyprus offered Russia land for a military base too.
I guess all Im saying is there are a few possibilities yet.
But Russian support could be meaningfull.
Heck, the Russians just put up cash for a loan to Ukraine. go figure.
Through the imf I believe.
A lot of slips tween the cup and the lip.
Yes, Russia has an opening. It’s why President Obama was getting so irritated with the inflexible position of Schauble and the German mandarin class who were being so obviously difficult with Greece at a time when Varoufakis and Syriza were clearly weakening.
Instead of compromise they launched directly at the throats of the Syriza Government as they smelled their weakness and saw the obvious cracks in lack of experience.
But I think they made a huge mistake.
The opportunity was there to make modest tolerable concessions to keep Greece inside the Euro yet instead the creditors spit venom and humiliated the Tsipras Government in the media.
Basically the Germans are behaving like a body of thug-dictators to the Southern region debtor nations and do not even bother with the pretense of conciliation anymore. I believe it will result in a backlash against their arrogant stance and eventually result in the Union breaking up as the electorate will have the final say.
You know, this petty arrogance of the creditors really reminds me of the French Revolution in some respects when it was reported that a member of the Royal family had said “Let them eat cake” at a time of widespread hunger and poor grain harvests and the French peasants were asking for relief from taxes.
Where Varoufakis and Tsipras have come hat in hand to renegotiate the terms of their indebtedness with a claim their country is fallen into a deep depression, the lead nations like Germany have responded instead with threats and a complete unwillingness to bend on the rules and the agreements signed by previous Greek governments.
“Let them eat cake” is symbolic of the current German response to the economic crisis within one of the poorer member states of the EZ who they accuse of being lazy and quite unlike the hard working Germans who are supporting their poor cousins on a dime.
Honestly, it is such bullshit. I never thought that developed Europeans would sink to such stupidity.
“such stupidity” You could say that again.
I really wonder if the whole system really does have to crash just to straighten things out.
Really looks like the east is preparing for it.
Keeping some cash in reserve might be one of the smartest things a person could do right about now.
One of these days we have got to talk about the French Revolution. You know bb, that was all about taxes during a time when the pockets of a very few were full to bursting but the poor were being disenfranchised, even starved into submission. This group in power now needs to be careful as distortions in social equity reach historical extremes. Millions across the globe live in poverty even as a tiny fraction of society has consumed the majority of all property and all assets. It is a recipe for disaster as we are now witnessing in Europe where a rabble attends the opening of the ECB offices in Frankfurt and whole scale riots break out. The bullshit runs so deep it is not funny anymore. And they are not even the most poor. But they are educated and that makes them very dangerous if solutions cannot be found. There is going to be a backlash against the extreme wealthy. Just as it always has been throughout history. These cycles repeat endlessly. But the very few will now be asked to give up their stupendous gains at the expense of the rest of the people on the planet. Sorry to say, but that’s just how it works. You cannot beat all the protesters into submission once they have said enough is enough. And not when they number in the billions.
Your right Bird. That’s how it works.
Nick Hanauer, the “amazon” billionaire, has said just that. He writes:
If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising. There are no counterexamples. None. It’s not if, it’s when
The sad thing about people that study history, so they don’t repeat it, is they have to watch those that don’t study, repeat it.
About the French revolution.
A story that gives a little insight to Chinese thinking.
A westerner asked a Chinese guy how the French revolution effected China, the Chinese guy responded, “too soon to tell”
I don’t know much more than that about it.
Yeah, that’s an interesting quote from Nick Hanauer. I don’t know about literal pitchforks but there is no question life can get more unpredictable once you hit the extremes. But mostly it is government itself who becomes the adversary of the extremely rich and they want what you have. Look at Russia where the Oligarchs were crushed or put in jail and had their assets stripped by the state or redistributed. Over in China, they would accuse you of corruption and you end up getting hung as a penalty. Warren Buffet and Bill Gates saw their vulnerability due to their great fortunes and acted proactively to dispose of excess wealth years ago already. The creation of foundations to distribute the bulk of that wealth made them look good in the public eyes as well. But they are the rarity, not the norm in this world.
Doc, check out patient home monitoring on The TSX-V symbol PHM, this is right in your wheelhouse, it has been on fire for quite a while due to a series of acquisitions and the volume has been excellent. Nice chart!
Wow! The stocks!
And we got a great confirmation that the dollar / euro trade is reversing. Told you guys this was it! 🙂
Damn I’m glad I picked up new positions on Friday and Tuesday in key mining stocks because they did pop up nicely today. We’ll know tomorrow if it was a headfake or a counter-trend rally starting.
I’m not convinced with the move on gold. They are sucking them in right now. Could still be the same with the dollar.
This is Avi’s evil scenario playing out. The idea is to get the gold bugs long again before the rug gets pulled out!
the commission jockeys need to suck everyone in before the next OPTION EXPIRY…..nothing more………..
I do agree, but still think the counter-trend move will last about 2 weeks and so far it is a profitable swing trade.
After that I am going to mostly cash for the PM portion of my portfolio, and may do some shorting using the reverse ETFs into the sell in May go away major lows in the space to come.
Shad…….you are correct on the swing trade….guys should make some money before the next smash….play the trend till it changes…….best happy trading and investing as someone else has said…………….cheer…………………………….j
WHEN THE ‘WORLD” is finally convinced of the FED’S inescapable problem of insolvency only disguised by money printing….THEN….and ONLY…THEN..will we c the PMs coming on strong..unstoppable….and guess what?….it is coming really really fast…this year. ..tomorrow?? .late.October.??? Maybe or maybe not…BUT if you are sweating it then you are either way over or under exposed..or you have no idea(what you are doing..:)) or/and what GOLD is or what is HAS BEEN for thousands of years – the FED IS PLAYING GAMES…THOSE GAMES will STOP and in will be a historical and somewhat “comical” fall from preceived wealth to NO WEALTH WHATSOEVER..brutal….brutal…!!
All the best,
Marc
The SHE DEVIL, yellow yellon…………….will run out of words before long……
Let see she has about 18 months……and she will be replaced..
THE FED AND A GREEK tragedy ………….look alike………
The patient is in the hospital. Janet Yellen sounds like a dead woman that is still talking. She has no idea what she is saying. It is thoughts of an insane person with dementia. Can someone put her out of her misery and say Janet – it is over, all over.
thanks bird it is logical but it sounds easy. then greece goes to putin.. but half the population goes right wing…like from 1946 – 1949…complicated. europe needs greece because of location–?
Probably not. But it is easy to imagine the current government quickly falls to non-confidence and new elections are held.
My E-trade screen is celebrating St. Patrick’s Day one day late (Everything is GREEN)
Look at NUGT and JNUG go … the 1-minute gold chart is fascinating to watch today, too.
Brian
Bird,
We still might need to give it another day or so, but it does look like the dollar has topped.
Sure does look like it topped. I am pretty pleased with that call btw. Picked up on it Sunday evening when I was up with the bats and Vampires so basically I nailed the dollar top to within a day when the charts moved. I gave myself a gold star for that. And then plucked one feather off my arse and stuck it my cap!
My wife just rolls her eyes when I get a call right. Thank God she loves me. I am impossible to live with.
Good call Bird, that last line could apply to many of us….. (;-)
Set my alarm for the fed meeting announcement (12 time difference to NYC) and bought NUGT. Decided to sell before going back to bed 1 1/2 hours later with a 2.1% profit. Happy with that. Good night.
China is going to raid the gold market. Isn’t anyone talking about the end of the London Fix? Now, the Chinese get to manipulate gold prices. …starts tomorrow! Gold could lose 300 oz overnight tomorrow night.
A few words from Janet Yellow and the markets go crazy…what a screwed up society…we should not have central planners…old Yellen be damned.
That’s funny. It is not Yellen that has me so amazed….it is the way the herd moves. Like they just got hit with a cattle prod or something.
Post market close, the USDCAD is “crashing”.
Sweet…
LPG
Some relief there. The Loonie has been killing me for months.
+1 Birdman
Best & hope all’s well.
LPG
Are you French Canadian, LPG? You got me curious because you mention the CAD more than the Euro.
Birdman,
No I’m not.
If I mention the CAD, it’s because a bunch of my stocks holdings are in Canada. Pretty simple. 🙂
Best,
LPG
Yeah, I didn’t think yours was a Quebecois accent but one never knows. A lot of Canadians are hard at work in the Middle East in the oilfields. And of course they are all following the Loonie with serious interest since conversion has been screwing them. Same with the European pensioners I was talking about yesterday who have taken losses of a third or more in exchange rates. They never saw THAT coming!
Many laid off Albertans are being recruited for the middle east I have heard.
Well…it looks like the talk of 1.20 is over now.
Which is a good thing. I was getting in my head over that stuff. Lol
1.05 Euro was the line in the sand. Course it did drop a little below that intraday which is a warning the euro collapse is not over yet. But for now some of the pressure will come off for both currencies and we really needed that to happen.
Bird it hasnt killed you in the pms….?!
Not at all Agatha. My call was short dollars / long Euro which should have implied long gold even if I did not state that. Even gold bears go to the dark side sometimes.
This little bounce on gold was just a bounce. The trend is down, and the pace is about to pick up.
Bird & chartie you read zero hedge right….
Yup, but haven’t today. Why
Governments and real estate markets involve so much debt and price inflation that raising interest rates is a no win situation. The only way out is either write off all debt or use the government printing press to underwrite government debt retirement over a period of decades and no more government borrowing. Just print the cash without debt. You may have more cash in circulation because of it but may be that extra cash could be invested in the real economy to pull main street out of the crapper.
A further precondition is critical. Residential real estate prices have to be regulated and capped at 6000 man hours or less times minimum wage for the average single family home . Any other way and people will pump up real estate prices until no one with a job could afford a place to live. We want people spending their after tax earnings mostly on goods and services and not making the FIRE economy rich.
THIS S@#T IS OVER………….THAT’S WHAT JANET YELLEN JUST SAID !!!!!!!!!!!!!
She did? Maybe we saw different footage Mark. I never heard that.
Bird. If your still out there. Just catching up now.
On March 19, 2015 at 1:19 am,
Birdman says:
Reply.: Very well put indeed. The are a couple filanthrapist pushing this point. They believe as I do that the great consolidation of weath that is now in the hands of the few Should be shared. There will be a flash point and a rebellion. The wealth was generally created by the masses through the capital system. The masses enabled them in their creations of billions. With out that which is dieing now, they are essentially killing the goose that laid the golden egg. The extreme greed is apparent. They will either share voluntarily or by force.
I think it cannot be avoided once the global economy turns down Bill. Seems inevitable that there will be demands by the public to tax the very wealthy heavily for the same reasons that immigration becomes impossible as a policy during difficult times. People just feel there is something very unfair happening and want it corrected even where during better times extremes and excesses were tolerated. Actually, its already started and is gaining steam if we can judge by the amount of comments written or spoken on social equity issues. I recall when I was a lot younger people looked up to the most wealthy because they symbolized achievement. The kids would brag about which countries had the most millionaires as if that meant something about opportunity in your country. That was the days before billionaires of course. I never hear those sentiments expressed anymore. Most people seem generally repulsed by extremes in wealth nowadays.
Great interview Al, Cory, and Doc!
I agree with Docs macro overview of PMs, the general markets, currencies and the Fed. This afternoon may get a bit dicey, but the real action may be tomorrow on Thursday.
Fun times!