The Doctor is In
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It is not so much the dollar going up as the Euro and EU approaching crisis point with Greece.
That problem will be alleviated and resolved very soon…..Bank on it.
Bank on it has a new meaning these days, beware of the fallout!
If the governments of Europe and North America had never borrowed and never debased the currency and paid as they went little or none of this idiotic situation would have come to pass. The ultimate blame must rest with politicians and bankers. One had no fiscal discipline and the other had no scruples about lending to governments.
About GOLD,
I know everybody and his brother are expecting a lower low …
But let’s look at an alternate count:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/brmdm06hqusk6bg/gold.jpg?dl=0
… and it fits with the leading expanding diagonal …
https://www.dropbox.com/s/izjt20f34zsh3em/gold.jpg?dl=0
… if 1132 holds :).
About the dollar,
they need to do that to preserve the and yes we will have
a QE4.
Everyone are printing !!!
I posted a good Kotlikoff interview cite on USAWatchdog yesterday.
that was a good one………….CONGRESS IS LOST………………
$200 Trillion in liabilities ……..and $5 Trill added in one year……….
GDXJ with a comparison stock, which I believe to be the most heavily shorted gold stock on the planet, through equity swaps.(all of the publicly held float, 70%+ of the float) If this stock doesn’t move, GDXJ usually doesn’t move.
Fran what is this comparison stock you speak off?
Glen, he’s talking about Golden Band Resources (GBN).
Doc is my all time favorite technician.
Yes, I really enjoy Doc’s thoughs and daily editorial, and have been a fan for years.
Today’s outlook seemed very realistic, grounded, and well-informed. Good stuff!
Doc is a great analyst and he is always calm and no too excitable. It makes him a great listen. Keep them coming, Doc, you are really the Korelin show’s best kept secret!
It sounds like Doc doesn’t really agree with Rick’s $810 target for gold considering he sees even more dollar strength to come but gold holding up reasonably well, perhaps sideways to down over the Summer. Does Doc have any target area for the gold price this year and does he thing gold will reach the bottom in 2015?
Hello Al,
Something I didn’t understand in what you mentioned at the beginning:
Silver up more than 50cts today at 16.06 ?
Gold up more than $17 at 1168.50 ?
Are you sure about these numbers you mentioned ?
Best as always,
LPG
Those were up from the premarket levels, but not from yesterday.
P.S. – Good thoughts in you next post below from 10:59am LPG.
I agree that the Fed can not really discuss the strength of the USD without putting into jeopardy their strong economy narrative and desire to raise rates.
Well said.
Re: the Fed and the rising USD, I think it’s basically something that it cannot use as an argument for being concerned, for several reasons.
1) the narrative is that the economy is getting stronger – so saying “we’re concerned about the USD’s strength” would seem awkward.
2) More importantly:
Assuming the Fed is serious about raising rates, then they CANNOT discuss/publicly voice their concern of a strong USD. Otherwise, if they raise rates while the USD is still going strong, people will say: “hold on, you said it’s a concern but YET you raise rates ???”
At the moment, the 2 variables the Fed mentions for rates hikes are: unemployment, and inflation expectations.
Well, re: unemployment, we know what the official data is showing – so greenlight for the Fed here.
Re: inflation expectations, “give it” a few more ticks up (ie wait a few months) and the green light will come up as well. –> hence road will be clear for rate hikes.
Just my 2cts.
LPG
Agree LPG. Good comment.
What objective standard of value does the FRN Dollar represent or have backing it?
Please be specific and show demonstrable evidence on this blog site.
+2 for unemployment and inflation. Although I believe unemployment rate is fudged. Bs in others words. Same with inflation. It aint getting cheaper for my favorite rib eye cut of steak.
But we all should by now know the Fed is looking at the wrong data. They should be looking at the employment rate or the median wage, both of which are falling.
The stupid media is a problem.
The Fed should be abolished as totally incompetent at preserving the value of the dollar.
But then the Marxish Islam loving person in the White House should be impeached.
Know how many times a day the U.S. bombs ISIL?
Less than 10.
know how many times a day the U.S. dropped bombs in the Bosnian conflict?
Between 60 and 70.
The person in the White House has no intention of seriously damaging ISIL, period.
Wake up folks!
There are a string of minimum wages hike by the likes of walmart et. al…. The fact that labor participation is lowest in history means employers need to compete for limited number of employees; hence, increase min wage is one symptom. This could tick up inflation and if these analyses are not BS, PM should welcome this inflation?
Rand going for it:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-19/rand-paul-officially-runing-president-2016
Best to all,
LPG
Unfortunately, I think Ted Cruz has a better chance of gaining the nomination, although we all know any true conservative or libertarian will be attacked mercilessly by the media.
Further we can expect increasing Internet problems to be created for conservatives, thanks to the recent Act that empowered the F.C.C.
that makes sense LPG thanks
I have to disagree with you too Doc with regards to the dollar. I think that you, Rick and Gary are all going to be on the wrong side of the trade. Basically I am totally alone in my contentions as outlined on prior threads the past few days. But you know what?….I am going to be right. I feel it in my bones. 100% confidence.
Sorry!
BETTER get your BONES CHECKED………………………………
chickens and humans have different bone structures………….
Actually, bird; I hope you’re correct since it would be PM and commodity bullish. You also could be correct since we’re coming to very strong support with the commodities. I’ve mentioned many times in the past that I felt commodities would bottom about March- April and we’re entering that time frame and it kind of goes counter-intuitive to what I just mentioned. The thing that bothers me technically about the dollar is that monthly chart shows no indication yet of a topping pattern, however, I must say the weekly chart has finally shown a crack in the momentum indicators (RSI). Also LPG comments are excellent—I’ve been thinking the same thoughts. The Fed would have to verbalize in a different way to justify a move to impact the rising dollar.
Come on over to the dark side Doc! I would be happy to have you in my camp.
By the way, Matthew tuned into what I was saying Sunday night and made the right bet by noon Monday. I think he was the only one who listened but I respect that and if I am not mistaken he had a spectacular day (although he has not told us yet). First time in a long while we agreed on a call…..maybe we will be friends after all.
Or not!
Sounds like a Sylvester and Tweedy moment………….
I’m sure he will thank you for his largesse.
Ha Ha Ha…I really doubt it, Doc. He pulled the trigger but it was the right move. Did you? That was a boatload in a couple hours. Enough to retire from the Kerr report for life.
Bird, you should have settled for getting a call right because you couldn’t be more wrong about me listening or acting on what you had to say. Notice that I posted the following before what you were saying on Sunday night:
On March 13, 2015 at 8:52 am,
Matthew says:
The dollar is massively overbought even on the monthly chart. Why no talk about selling into strength? Where are the contrarians? The dollar can (and I believe, will) retrace the entire move going back to July.
You lock in your dollar gains by buying things that are now cheap.
Perhaps your call came from following to me?
I saw that Matthew. You said the same thing back in January when I first began talking about a reversal coming so it meant very little. You followed me. Simple as that.
Alpha Dog, baby….Harooooooooooowwwwwww!!!!
If I got an investment idea from you I would say so way before you would have to make the claim that I did. Simple as that. A dishonest and dishonorable person like yourself is sure to find that hard to believe, but that’s how it is.
You learned to trust my instincts. No problem. The trade was a good one and I called it first.
Bird, you really are psycho if you think I trust anything you say or do. Now find your meds and TAKE THEM.
Sniff my tail.
Are your wond diss job YOU TWO ? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMeL9kqODEU
Matthew you are so right about BIRDDOG. I mean Birdman 🙂
Peter
Right about what Peter?
Let me tell you something. There was not a single person on this site who called the dollar top unequivocally except me. There was not a single person ANYWHERE to my knowledge that made that exact call. Period and end of story.
And you know what else? That is the second time in the last 12 months because I also called the dollar bottom to the day. Then as now I was entirely alone. Doc, Al, Cory, Chris, Gary….none of them came close. They won’t even talk about it. Pride is all.
Maybe one day you will get that it is not just plain dumb luck to do that twice.
Did you call it?
Matthew, Birdman probably has a quicksand pit behind his dwelling. LOL!
Matt has said that the dollar will retrace almost all this rise if it means anything to you. I agree as well that dollar will drop and commodities will be unleashed. Very soon. I like chartsters/Shads outtake and will not rule out Matt’s bottom is already in.
Im on the fence.. I think loonie has another trip down and commodities will go with it. When? I hope soon im tired of waiting for this bear to end if it has not already.
Thanks buddy!
Transglobe breaking through $4. Was at a P/E of 4 times but was recently updated to a P/E of 38 times. I don’t own any.
P/E = dinosaur stock rating method
Just one of the dramatic changes that didn’t seem to affect the stock price. Probably a good thing IMHO.
For those Claude Resource followers; it appears the stock has topped and should show some pressure for some time—–not investment advice, but it will give opportunity to those that missed a nice move higher.
Thank’s DOC ! What your opinion on canasil res ,? i know a very smal stock ? Thank’s !
Franky; technically, it appears the stock has bottomed right at the lower BB of the monthly chart. However, I’ve not really researched the stock’s fundamentals. Another stock that is sitting right at the lower BB of its’ monthly chart is TC (Thompson Creek). It is producing gold and the main negative is its’ debt. However, with the expanding production of its’ new gold mine, it has cash flow and is starting to slowly pay debt down.
Yes looking GOOD ! Thank’s
Thanks Doc, I’m in your camp. Waiting until April.
I am watching Claude closely, but feel if we do have a grind down in late April and May, that this may be a good entry point back into the stock.
Honestly, if PMs do still continue up from here in a counter-trend move, I could see Claude getting over $.50 US, but I am not chasing it here.
In my opinion, it’s too soon to say that a correction has started. If the sector shows strength here, I think Claude will go higher before having a protracted pullback.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CLGRF&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96039627643&a=397131907
I still own plenty and am not a buyer here.
Agreed Matthew. I just posted up above that if PMs continue to ratchet higher for the next week or so, then I could see Claude taking out $.50 US before topping.
It is still an unknown at present, because the markets are still reeling from the FOMC and are all over the place.
Regardless, in April/May there may be a better entry point for people wanting to pick up postions.
Claude is looking a bit weaker when priced in the Canadian dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRJ.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p17051246244&a=390636292
The USD plunged to Fibonacci fan support yesterday before reversing:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p42949315642&a=370494319
Great chart and observation Matthew……. but I thought technicals weren’t important according to many traders on this blog : – )
(it must have just been a coincidence right?)
Well, Shad, these coincidences can be interesting. 😉
Looking at this chart, you might conclude that copper has a date with a new low (and it might)…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p69094983959&a=385055785
…but when we add two more forks, we can see that it’s a little more complicated than it looks. If you study the action, you can see the validity of all three forks’ support/resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p95552501537&a=370688539
Yes, that does look a bit more complicated with the green fork as Copper broke above, but then did dip down briefly to touch the upper trend line.
It would seem that Copper would head lower this Spring with the rest of the commodities, so that would not be a surprise to see it use the upper boundary of the blue pitchfork as a resistance line that it bumps it’s head on and heads back down into May.
Interesting chart, Matthew.
The dollar is a 50/50 deal to me.
My gut tells me it’s going higher for a week or 3.
Materials sector is looking weak. I was able dump by etf yesterday on the spike up yesterday. Yesterday was a great day to offload shares.
I think investors have completely forgotten that silver CAN go up and will go up. With all the talk of a strong economy, why wouldn’t it? 3% today alone.
SLV is up 9% since it bottomed on 3/11.
It’s interesting that GDXJ and GDX are both up about 2.9% right now while Sprott’s SGDM is up 3.6%. We’ll see if this outperformance can become a trend…
SGDM’s lead has narrowed substantially. Oh well.
Fwiw, I just read that “in the Frasier Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies, Québec went from #21 on the Investment Attractiveness Index in 2013 to #6 in 2014.”
That’s good news to me.
FRIDAY AND GOLD IS UP………..TWO DAYS IN A ROW……..YAHOO…..smashers are coming do not worry…………..same old game…………
Alexandria Minerals posts new report on Kitco and Facebook today.