Comments on the currencies and how the other markets will react
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Nice!… 3-6 weeks lets go
I’ve seen this moves on GLD since the FOMC meeting (more than 150K and more than 200K shares) and I concluded: the bottom is IN !!!
HOPE SO………………………………J
I still think we go lower in April and May Peter. Gold and the GLD will bottom with the rest of the commodity complex, but it may bottom before some of the other base metals and specialty metals.
The whole complex is something like 22 different commodities, and obviously they will not all bottom at exactly the same time.
– Uranium is the first one out of the gate, and already bottomed.
– Several of the soft commodities are already basing and bottoming.
– Palladium has been doing it’s own thing, and has been my favorite PM for the last few years, but if things get ugly in a few weeks I am nervous it could temporarily “fall of the cliff”. However, Palladium has already had a series of higher highs and higher lows since the end of last year, so that indicates short term bullishness.
– Gold will likely bottom in May, then Silver then Platinum. (May/June)
– The base metals & possibly Oil will be bringing up the rear. (July/Aug)
Like I said last Friday, it appears the dollar put in a double-top on Wed night (11th) and Friday the (13th) at 100.39. This is likely just the daily cycle top.
Now when there is a severe move down/up that tags a key support level (in any asset or equity), then it is completely normall to get a snap back that doesn’t retrace all the way back to the prior level, and then it will resume the new direction.
Often people who get surprised by a large counter-trend move will celebrate too early when this snapback happens and think the move was a fluke and get reinthused that “things are back on track.”
When the dollar touched 95 and then retraced to 99, many people felt it would be right back over 100 today. Nope. It failed to take out 100.39 (prior high from last Friday) yesterday and has been grinding back down ever since. This was to be expected, and why I said it would be a week or two counter-trend move, NOT a 1 day event.
My forecast for a while now was for a pullback in the dollar for about two weeks, giving PMs, commodities, the Euro/Loonie time to have a counter trend move.
Well, one week later (from last Friday to this Friday) the dollar has not made it back over 100 and the PMs/commodities/non-dollar currencies have rallied.
Here on Friday afternoon we have the US dollar down at $97.71, the Euro up at 108.27, and Gold up at $1182. Right on schedule.
People are so focused on just Wednesday’s FOMC move, that they are forgetting the dollar had topped the prior Wed (11th) and last Friday (13th). IT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WHOLE WEEK OF DOLLAR CORRECTION, and not just a day or two.
Once this counter trend move does it’s thing, I definitely expect the prior trends to reverse back where the dollar charges higher into mid-late spring pushing the 110 target before it puts in the intermediate top. The Euro and Loonie are not out of the woods yet either, but this is a breather. Got it?
My best guess is that next week will be the conclusion of this counter-trend move, so if things really take off in PMs, the Euro, or the Loonie, I will be selling into stength. If the dollar rises on Monday, and PMs go down, I may add “minimally” to my positions as we probably have just a little further to push this counter-trend move.
The first big resistance zone will be the 1200 level, and I’d sell a sizable portion of my gains in stocks & ETFs at $1198 (from March 5th close).
Good luck next week everyone and may you have a relaxing weekend!
After looking at more longer term charts, I could see the countertrend rally going into early April, before the slow grind down into spring in commodities.
(so maybe two more weeks) – We’ll see how it goes in the middle to end of next week for guidance.
There might be a few very conservative investors here that do not like to take a chance on stock markets when the upside potential is not so great at this point but a market accident could happen at any time. For conservative investors, why not just stay on the sidelines, wait for gold to get near 1000 bucks, then load the boat. Cash looks good right now to me if you already have a comfortable amount of gold coins sunk in a rabbit hole. I personally believe that a market accident is in our future. Timing unknown. But, not far off. And, this accident will drag gold down with it.
That is very sound advice for the conservative investor Glen. Good thoughts.
Personally I am high risk, balls to the walls every day of my life, and usually am posting on this site for very short term (1 day – 2/3 week) swing trades. This is how I utilize my trading account, and much of my conservative money has been in the general markets and 401K (although if there is a big crash that I expect in September, then the general markets won’t seem that conservative anymore).
So what is the plan guys – hop aboard the GDXJ, GDX train for 4 to 6 weeks?
It is interesting, and frustrating, to see these rises but I think it is important that a difference choice of words by Yellen on Wednesday could have sent all the markets, everything, tumbling down over a cliff.
So, metals for April?
BobUK
There are a lot smarter people on this site, than I. But I can tell you how I have traded/invested since Nov2014:
1. I have been buying blocks of shares, on pullbacks, in companies I think have a lot of potential. I am nearly done (One more block of each of these: Alexco, Claude, Kirkland Lake, Pretium). These are buy and hold. Expect all of these stock to be multiples of todays share price if/when gold gets back to $US1500 (maybe 2016-2017). I don’t fret over large moves in these stocks, as I know, eventually, it will pay off
3. I do not invest/trade GDX, GDXJ, HUI, etc, as I feel I have picked better companies than are in these ETFs
2. (Optional) Meanwhile, I trade the 3x bull/bears (NUGT, JNUG, DUST, etc) for very short term time-frames (hours to days). I set a very tight stop (down 1-2 %). Typically, I will lose 3 and win 1. But if I lose 5% over three trades, then get a +10% win (like in JNUG + 30% these past couple days) I seem to be making money.
Brian
Good thoughts Brian. For 3xETFs don’t forget JDST, DSLV, and GLDS. You did say etc…. though : – )
Those will be good to trade once we complete the short-term up leg in PMs in a week or so.
Shad !
Thanks – I did not know about DSLV and GLDS.
By the way, sometimes when I see your “Shad” handle, and start to read your posts, the theme song for “Shaft” goes through my head. I do not know why this might be – fortunately, I kind of like the song (for about 30 seconds)
Can. You. Dig. It.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFvRvSxsW-I
Yes……I can dig it Big Pimpin’ Brian! – Funny and cool.
Brian – I apologize as the information I gave out was bad on GLDS, that ETF was renamed BARS and it closed down in December due to a lack of demand. However, it’s counter correlated fund (GLDL – which now is called BAR) is still in place.
BAR – 3x Gold Bull ETF
If DUST or JDST or DSLV are too agressive at 3 x then a nice 2 x Bearish ETF is – (DZZ)
I had made a list of leveraged ETFS in Dec and didn’t realize GLDL had changed it’s name to BAR, so I am out of the loop.
Honestly, there is the most liquidity in NUGT/DUST and JNUG/JDST so those really are the only ones I trade.
Once we reach our short term highs, I am thinking of trading in and out of DSLV if I get a feeling Silver is going to get wacked, but until I see us put in the top in this counter-trend move, I am holding off on too much leverage at present.
Good luck to you Brian!
I am surprised that Gary said 400-500% potential gains in biotechs, like 1999-2000 all over again?
GDX ROUND UP!!!
After-market trade: 4,1M shares one trade
MARKET ALERT!!!
Espetacular move in GLD at 10:56 am: more than 654k shares traded