Technicals with Rick Ackerman
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NICE CLOSE FOR TODAY………
Like I said last Friday, it appears the dollar put in a double-top on Wed night (11th) and Friday the (13th) at 100.39. That was likely just the daily cycle top.
Now when there is a severe move down/up that tags a key support level (in any asset or equity), then it is completely normal to get a snap back that doesn’t retrace all the way back to the prior level, and then it will resume the new direction.
Often people who get surprised by a large counter-trend move will celebrate too early when this snapback happens and think the move was a fluke and get reinthused that “things are back on track.”
When the dollar touched 95 and then retraced to 99, many people felt it would be right back over 100 today. Nope. It failed to take out 100.39 (prior high from last Friday) yesterday and has been grinding back down ever since – starting with the after-hours trading yesterday.
This was to be expected, and why I said it would be a week or two counter-trend move, NOT a 1 day event.
People are so focused on Wednesday’s FOMC move, that they are forgetting the dollar had topped the prior Wed (11th) and last Friday (13th). IT HAS ALREADY BEEN A WHOLE WEEK OF DOLLAR CORRECTION, and not just a day or two.
My forecast for a while now was that the dollar would top in the 100-102 zone and then pullback for about two weeks, giving PMs, commodities, the Euro/Loonie time to have a counter trend move.
Well, one week later (from last Friday to this Friday) the dollar has not made it back over 100 and the PMs/commodities/non-dollar currencies have rallied. Again, this all started LAST FRIDAY, but the fireworks were on Wednesday.
Here on Friday afternoon we have the US dollar down at $97.71, the Euro up at 108.27, and Gold up at $1182. Right on schedule. It is exactly what we expected to play out.
Now, once this counter-trend move does it’s thing, I definitely expect the prior trends to reverse back where the dollar charges higher into mid-late spring pushing the 110 target before it puts in the intermediate top. The Euro and Loonie are not out of the woods yet either, but this is just a breather.
That is why they call it “Counter-Trend”. Got it?
P.S. – J….The Long…..OOTB – This was a general group comment and was not directed at you personally. You da man!!
Directed? At whom? That was funny because I did not read any criticism in the comment. The dollar is going down though. Sorry to say but I disagree with your conclusion in an otherwise interesting recap of the recent dollar history.
Hey Bird – I didn’t want OOTB to think I was saying to him “Got It?” at the end as it sounded a little pretentious. Actually it still does when I read it, but unfortunately once something is posted you can’t go back and edit or delete it.
If I could redo that post I would end with “Can You Dig It?” based on Brian’s funny post from Gary’s daily editorial today.
As for the Dollar, I don’t think the 100.39 on Friday the 13th was the intermediate cycle top, but just the daily cycle top. I think we still need an even more insane blow off top up to 110 in about 2 months, but hey, I could be wrong.
I just wanted to post because the last 2 days on multiple websites everyone keeps calling the top in the dollar the FOMC day on Wednesday, and they are forgetting that it was a week ago last Friday, and it actually first made it up over 100 on Wednesday night after hours trading. When the dollar went up to the same area and tagged it again on Friday, I had my suspicions that was it, but kept the door open to a FOMC freakout to 102 this Wed, which didn’t happen.
I am not sold on the major top in the dollar being Friday the 13th, but it does make a spooky day if it was for future news blurbs. Now if the dollar doesn’t come out of this correction and surge above that high, then I’ll be sending you the ribbons and stars for your call : – )
Thanks Shad. I will be waiting! Btw, check out this story of how the dollar went no-bid as the longs went on a panic to get out and no buyers came forward. They are calling it the dollar flash crash. It is a prelude to the exit that is coming. I am certain the dollar has peaked for this cycle. My current estimate is that it will decline for at least 7 to 9 months. Just a rough guide but we will see what the market decides.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/03/shhh-we-cant-talk-about-the-dollars-flash-crash-on-wednesday/
I do agree with your viewpoint that the dollar “flash crash” is, in fact, a prelude to the exit that is coming. Where my personal forecast differs in that I believe the dollar will turn around an run higher after this counter-trend run, and then do a blow off top the surprises everyone. It is at this where people should take their profits and start shorting the dollar. This would also be the zone to to start building longer term positions in various commodity sectors and I think we see this over the next few months.
It’s gonna be crazy any way it shakes out, but I have a gut feeling the dollar may still climb a bit more if the Euro situation weakens further due to Greece, Spain, Portugal issues. It seems like Germany is losing patience with the rest of the EU counterparts. There are many smaller countries in the EU that will be decimated as a result of this failed experiment.
I just reread that after hitting submit, and most of the grammar was simply terrible because I was rushing to answer. Sometimes it is better to slow down before your speed up. You get the idea though.
I understood completely. I would agree there is a good probability the dollar will actually make another run at its recent peak and double top. That’s just an opportunity for the longs to lighten up though and get out with their heads intact! We have a weakening cycle dead ahead for the dollar but exactly how long it runs is not so easy to predict. Right now I am betting on less than 9 months but we have to play it by ear.
Shad…….I THINK THOSE WERE GREAT COMMENTS……….J…………..
Thanks man. I think almost all of your comments are great and I laugh every day at your tomfoolery, and think you ask the tough questions sometimes. One might go as far as saying your perspective is really “Out Of The Box”!
Keep on keepin’ on……
Why thank you………..you are a gentleman, and a scholar…………..appreciate your kind words…………………………………OOTB.
Might even be headed to $1300, before OPTION EXPIRY……., that seems high so lets just get back to 1250……then they can yank the chain, and all the ALPHA DOGS can bark up the tree of life……………………………………………….lol…..j
Don’t you mean BULL dogs? 😛
ok, Jason, that was a good one…………but, old Birdy said he was an ALPHA DOG, to Matthew the other day.
o-o-o-r,..maybe a BIRD DOG..?
o-o-o-r,..maybe… an ornery, ornithological, biped, plumed, canine mutt.??.. [Patent by Monsanto]
Sorry, folks, devil-made-me-do-it 🙂 🙂 🙂
Alpha mutt…..is going to get ya……………..ha,ha…….
Yeah, J, it did cross my mind; all I can do now is hope the rabies vaccine booster I got at the Clinic this morning will ward off the vicious assault’s after-effects.
Excellent call Rick, got ur email last night, this morning dumped my shorts.
Thanks and again, good call.
Bird, any chance you will make the call when its time for gold to drop?
Hope so, you got those drops pretty much “nailed”.
Yeah, he needs to make up for this ;):
On March 18, 2015 at 11:57 am,
Birdman says:
I would NOT trust this gold pop too much.
“Trust, but verify”. Who said that?
oh – iKnow
https://obront.wordpress.com/2011/06/06/doveryai-no-proveryai-trust-but-verify/
Доверяй, но проверяй
At this juncture, anybody , trusting anyone in the govt. is loco………….jmho…..j
I think the govt……If you listen to Kitlokoff(sp) interview he did on usawatchdog. this week HIS meeting with the govt. shows that………..The congress is HOPELESS, AND DOES NOT HAVE A CLUE.
The moron in CONGRESS……..do not even know anything about accounting, and debt.
Make up for it? It may turn around at any moment.
It was $20 lower when he made that comment. Hellooo?
Anyone who did as he advised and didn’t trust it have missed good gains in the miners.
good call Matthew…………..j
Sorry Matthew, now you are talking like a retard. I did not advise anyone to do anything. You are getting way ahead of yourself. I said that I would not trust the pop. Notice that little word “I”?
The psychopath can’t take a little of his own treatment. Big surprise.
(I’m sure you’ve conveniently forgotten, but you did EXACTLY the same thing to me about two weeks ago. So why the name-calling, NPD boy?)
Ha! You are really pissed about my Euro/ dollar call. You always get aggressive when I pull a rabbit out of the hat.
NO, I get aggressive when you LIE. Your delusions of grandeur get old.
Btw, as Glennfidish knows, I bought several juniors and two ETFs right into their respective lows (while you attacked me like the animal you are) and am now up substantially. If you weren’t so clueless and delusional you’d feel foolish right now.
I also sold more UUP puts today for an average gain of 117%. And you? Well, you just keep soiling this site with that garbage-spewing pie hole of yours.
Matthew just don’t deal with the guy. As I’ve said repeatedly you’ll never win against a psycho with NPD. He’s a complete fraud and a main reason for absenting myself off this site., Best, A
Andrew, I can sure see why you’ve chosen not to participate much anymore! The nut ruins this site and caps its potential.
Matthew you play a vital role in standing up to him. But as you say he’s ruination to any proper debates here.
Differing opinions are what markets are all about but Bird has to be combative when asserting his. We won’t talk about his make-believe expertise.
Notice that when (he thinks) he’s right, he’ll tell everyone that they should have listened to him; but when he’s wrong, “it wasn’t advice!”
Andrew, you absented yourself because you were getting beat badly on gold and you only used me as an excuse for your wife who was appalled at the losses on the family ledger. Try not to blame others for your personal decisions next time.
The good book has a lot of wisdom on that topic. It is under the heading of “Pride”. Read it one day.
BIRD………THE GOOD BOOK SAYS TO …..LOVE YOUR NEIGHBOR……as yourself…….
Bird Man you are too sad for words and a disgrace to this site. He’s your Achilles heel Al.
Sorry bb, but no call. I am little under the weather actually. I had a couple great days there but then picked up some kind of bug today so I am heading back to bed. Gold actually looks positive to me though at a quick glance at the chart and it has carried through although I would not really consider it a breakout until it crosses 1200…..but I am not looking at it that closely right now. A little cross eyed to be honest.
take a shot of rye……..chase it with an a orange juice………..oh, forget the orange juice, and just chug the bottle of rye ……..
It sure would be nice if gold could settle into the US$ 1180-2000 range and take a rest. PM stocks are really humming along today: Both the 3x/NUGT&JNUG up +10% today.
Brian
SprottMoney.com
Free shipping and insurance until March 31st on orders over $4,999
hmmm … platinum or silver?
maybe a bit of both.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$PLAT:$SILVER&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p37558284396
12.37 PM ET QUOTES
Intra-day high just hit a few minutes ago [1 min candles; real-time ]
SILVER= 16.890 U$D GOLD= 1187.440 U$D
Good catch LFP.
Doc, could you offer comments on your pick from weeks ago Excellon..
Thank you
so, LFP. you figure gold is on its way down again?
It was on both sides of 1184.23 support (intra-day high of 10.30-10.35 this am) for 10 min., then penetrated the next intra-day support @ 1182.59 (11.59 am intra-day low). No big deal. But if it takes out the 1180.83 support, especially before / at today’s close, I think the bull gets skewered in the neck. Even if 1180.xx is still standing @today’s close, it presents a great opprotunity for the big short-sellers to flip the applecart during the overseas markets come Sunday overnight .
[Remember when, @ ca. 2.30 am NY time, 41-metric tons of gold got dumped @ the market (no stop sells at all )]
Also, the U$D’s had a tremendoulsy accelerated pull-back. It was actually a 2-hour affair, if you check Wednesday’s action in the USDX.
So what’s the bottom line.?.
Well, tomorrow, i’m ging to my bullion dealer and unloading 10% of my ”PHYZZZ”, as it’s called 😉
Cheers & good luck to you, bb.
P.S.
For some comic relief; please read Pam Martenson’s article (I call her the Elizabeth Ann Warren of female journalists, along side of Nomi Prins, of course), found on:
http://wallstreetonparade.com/2015/03/the-clintons-and-the-fed-are-gasping-over-the-april-issue-of-harpers/ Also check oout the one immediately above it, one of her quips re the USD’s event on wednesday.
Thanks for that link bb Its a great informative read
Great T.A. LFP.
The PHYZZZZ comment made me laugh the froth out of my gold, I mean beer : – )
So Gold closed at 1182.40 which is higher than 1180.83, but lower than 1184.23, so it seems to have split the difference in the two support levels you mentioned. What do you make of this closing price, and intra-day swings?
Will the gold price dip down on Monday to wipe away a little froth in PMs, and then trend sideways to upwards for the balance of the week?……(OR)
Will the gold price continue to climb on Monday, and trend sideways to down in the middle/end of the week?
I am at a bit of a crossroads with the action on Mondays, but I feel that way every week. There is so much that can happen in news, sentiment, in the overseas markets, and pre-makets in North America from Friday night to Monday morning. This makes it a bit dicey to hold any position over the weekend, but makes it equally dicey not to hold a position……
thx LFP
bb & lorenzo95
– You’re both welcome.
Bookmark her site or RSS it.
BTW, I mis-typed Pam’s surname; its Martens, *not* Martenson [of Chris Martenson fame].
She focuses exclusively on financials and does a better job than zerohedge’s Tyler Durden, if only because she has less on her plate, topics-wise. [fyi, I’m RSS’ed with Durden’s site].
done
and thanks once again LFP
From a fundamental point of view, the reason for the rise in precious metals prices was the start today of the new LBMA electronic pricing fix; combined with a physical shortage of metals.
It was nice to see that the U.S. did not try a Friday take down. (But why should they? It has been long since ceased to be a free market with manipulation and collusion rampant!)
On the USdollar front is the Fed using a takedown in order to give them flexibility if they decide to raise interest rates.
I personally don’t think the Fed can raise rates soon, but if they need to prop up a falling stock market, direct stock purchases and raising Us interest rates will attract foreign money.
(Besides the Fed knows there are at this point in time about $16 Trillion in liquid US dollars that could come back into the US at any time. E.g. With corporate tax amnesty on repatriation of dollars, etc.)
Actually looking back at the gold chart, I do see an initial couple of dollars attempt to take the gold price down right as NY opened. And those dealers bought back at the end of the day to close out their positions for the weekend.
Interesting……
Thanks cfs, Im just thinking this could be a “pop”.
Ricks 800 is still on the table as far as I know.
The door is closing on the FED. , MONEY PRINTING IS THE POP………
There is som movement of gold from London to Greece and Turkey, but China, India and Russia are the big physical buyers.
The situation in Greece will possibly have a big (Really big) impact on the Euro.
The ECB will not go and throw more money down the drain over Greece, in my opinion.Greece is now negotiating directly with Russia. However, it is really difficult to find out what Greece is offering in return.
My guess is some military base or port. However that would violate NATO agreements. Greece is between Scylla and Caribdis, or a rock and a hard place for Americans.
IF the gold is going to Greece , it will never make it there………..
The entire situation is a rock and a hard place for all concerned…….
cfs, Greece has a route for the pipeline, they also have a nato veto.
GOOD CALL..Mar 20…..I THINK we were saying that several days ago,……………….and
Good comment on the “flexibility”……..
I agree with you on the idea the FED can not raise interest rates.
The cat (dollar) is away and the mice out to play.
Anyone knows that today’s rise is because of new fix or some other reason. Have’t followed for a few days.
or simple are ignorant of facts and logical reasoning……..
simply….I was thinking of some simple minded fokes……..sorry
J. were you answering my question?
Was it a question………..I agree with your statement …..and added to it……….j
If it is a question………then I will say, ………read CFS’s comment above, as he mentioned and as we were talking the last week that the FIX was going to change on the 20th…….There are other things as I think you have mentioned that are on the way…
J. I forget question mark in a rush. Sorry. They did not include Chinese bank though.
No problem, glad you replied…………………..j
I think the problem comes in when you’re dining on a wrinkled pickle on an intermediate bicycle worrying about your bottom. You simply have to pay more attention.
I thought you only got a wrinkled pickle after 80………..
sorry, could not resist………..
These comments are immediately pickleable.
Yes, Make your best pick……but, do not forget to reseal the jar.
SILVER looking good…………………up 75 cents……….
NICE ARTICLE ….on the “FLASH CRASH OF THE DOLLAR”
, which happened WED., article at zerohedge today.
I’m not sure the flash crash said much other the the dollar was horrendously overbought technically at that point of times, it was close to end of day, and for a short period of time there was no bid.
And automatic stop orders kicked in.
Overbought or over supplied…………
Overbought
thanks………….
USD……….down 1.3
RSI had been over70 for 10 days and MACD was about .4
You are the Professor…….thanks……….j
WELL…..I TOLD EVERYONE EARLIER THIS WEEK THAT WE WOULD HAVE A POP IN GOLD ON FRIDAY………………..AND HERE IT IS !!!!
Mark, opinions are a dime a dozen and over-priced at that,UNLESS they are backed with reasons behind the opinion.
DUH…….I GAVE THE REASON EARLIER THIS WEEK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
NEW LBMA GOLD PRICE FIXING IN EFFECT……………………..but for how long will it last ?????
NEXT……is …..ICE………….
ANY calls for MONDAY…………..
WELL I’LL GIVE THIS NEW ICE SOME LEAVE WAY and say that we will be up again on MONDAY !!!!
I have factors, all logical and reasonable which could drive the price in either direction. Alas, I’m not privy to the decisions over the high frequency traders and algo writers that drive the manipulation, or the PPT, that occasionally steps in.
There are good Chartists on this site which can give better short term estimates than I. I can say what the fundamentals tell me. That is up eared price movement HAS to be maintained in order for supply not to drop.
This is especially true in silver where for many miners the cost of production is above the market price. For silver much of the production is, of course, byproduct production in base metal mining or even in gold-mining. Because of the drop in prices in base metals, it is probably silver will have reduced supply for some time.
The COT report which comes out on Tuesdays gives some indication of what professionals are thinking for price movement in the intermediate term.
Up eared should be upward
The gremlins in my iPad correcting idiots again.
NO, FORGET ALL OF THAT TECH BULL………..I SAID THAT GOLD WILL BE UP AGAIN ON MONDAY……..PERIOD !!!!!!
WELL ICE IS NOW IN THERE………………and YES……….that’s the new word!
……………AND DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE NEW CHINA EXCHANGE, yet to be named !!!!
America is over…………..over weight, over budget, and over controlled……….
Jerry…& im glad its over there.
Irish….sorry I missed your comment………hope everything is well…….j
My gold and Russian stocks closed green but not green enough for me to take profits. NUGT & RUSL
Jason,
Good pick on the Russian market. I look for it to be a big gainer next week.
The 3x’ers are a bit much for me.
DO NOT MISS THE article at KWN…………on ROTATION..
setting up for WAVE III
Probably
Athens, Mar 20 (EFE).- Greek government spokesman Gavriil Sakelaridis said on Friday that reforms, which are to be submitted in the upcoming days by the Greek government to its European partners, will not include austerity measures, and will be based on the list of proposals previously submitted by Finance Minister Yanis Varufakis to Eurozone representatives.
The government will not implement additional austerity measures that add further pressure on income, the spokesman told several local television channels.
Unless Russia comes up with a gift, Greece will soon default.
I do not believe Angela will cave, even though she is under tremendous pressure to do so.
I hope you guys were taking advantage of volatility via sexy, as suggested by the doc.
But remember to keep a trailing stop, or watch like a hawk for the crash, which will come between now and year’s end. Most are guessing September, including Armstrong, who has been a good long-term timer for general trends.
I need to shoot my iPad gremlin, it correct to sexy, SVXY.
********* UPDATE : GOLD WILL POP AGAIN NEXT WEEK……..all you naysayers who will post after this post,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,GOLD WILL BE BIG NEXT WEEK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
FORGET ABOUT WHAT EVERYBODY SAYS NEXT WEEK………..MARK SAID IT FIRST……………GOLD WILL RISE BIG NEXT WEEK……..new info coming in………….
” GOLD WILL BE UP BIG NEXT WEEK “
I’ll go on record to be a Nay Sayer.
Gold drops early next week!
MAKE SURE THAT YOU POST ON HERE ON MONDAY !!!!!!
Corrected corrected to correct or was that me being stupid? Sorry.
I’using my iPad simply because I can’t use my left arm for anything at the moment, thanks to another operation. Old age sucks, but cancer sucks more.
CFS….I agree with your last statement…..Keep fighting & smiling , Mate.
BTW..When are you next back in the UK , perhaps we could meet up.
CFS,
Prayers and healing to you , Sir.
I was shocked the other day to learn that St. Patrick’s Day is An American idea, if they can come up with such sound reasoning why can’t they have a national holiday that celebrates no more war and call it Peace For People Day. DT
It actually ( finally ) looks as if the dollar is done!
Now we can get on with things.
Looking at the indicators makes me think gold will go up Monday… But should reverse..
I think we just had an “impulse leg”……………a jerk higher , two twitches, and next week the dog will roll over………………………jmho……………….j………………..