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Cory and Chris Temple discuss oil

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March 26, 2015

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13 Comments
    Mar 26, 2015 26:36 PM
    Mar 26, 2015 26:57 PM

    If you pull up a very long term chart of the US dollar, Chris, you can see that on a technical basis it has probably already peaked. I am looking at a chart going back to 1970 for example and it’s pretty clear. Coincidentally that last peak will coincide with the bottom in the commodity index’s. As Mr Fischer stated the other day, the dollar will not rise forever which was another way of saying it is going to decline. Very long term charts are difficult to use for trading but they often are VERY helpful in locating major trend changes and I think we have one here as I have been discussing at length for the past weeks.

    Mar 26, 2015 26:22 PM

    Great to hear you will be stepping in to help out while Cory enjoys the beginning of married life (Congratulations Cory!). Please go and look at the chart I refer to and note the pattern of lower lows and lower highs where the Dollar is concerned.

    I think that this particular USD peak is so fundamental to our understanding of what may be coming next that it simply cannot be ignored. It asks us all to reconsider our outlook for gold, most commodities, oil, inflation expectations, GDP growth where competitiveness (devaluation) is concerned and of course the probabilities that other major currencies will actually rise versus the dollar.

    And of course we can see encoded in that chart a certainty that the opportunity for the Federal Reserve to begin rate normalization is now upon us as the dollar begins its next major leg down.

    I really cannot state strongly enough the importance of what I see there and why I think it is once again time to begin reviewing our stance on future market changes. What I love most about these long charts most though is that they smooth out all the noise of the past years and keep us focused on what is really important from an investment perspective.

    Nor do I doubt for a moment that the Fed is timing its first rate hike in years according to the technical outlook for the dollar. So those who keep fretting that the dollar must keep rising are already on the wrong side of the trade and are misunderstanding the change that is now before our eyes.

    Absolutely everything is linked to what the dollar does next.

      Mar 27, 2015 27:44 AM

      I have little doubt that, eventually, the dollar will resume its longer downward slide. Trouble is, as I said, market jolts could send it up again for a while. Upside for the euro specifically seems capped at $1.10, too — and if Greece in the end does leave, it could really crater. We’ll see!

      Mar 27, 2015 27:45 AM

      The biggest issue IMO with the Fed is the markets. All the Fed’s talk about the economy is a sideshow: if they think they can get away with a rate hike 1. without spiking the dollar further or 2. without commensurately blowing up emerging markets, etc., they’ll do it if for no other reason than to save face.

      Mar 27, 2015 27:17 AM

      Agreed that we will see the decline of the dollar.
      American politicians have abused their positions as leaders of the Free World.
      Secret entities and their agendas are bringing this about and Congress lacks the ability to control them.
      Americans reputation around the world has been tarnished.
      The dollar will end up paying the price for these indiscretions.

    Mar 27, 2015 27:43 AM

    Good thoughts on the oil patch and dollare from Chris. Also, I agree with his statements about the potential effects of the Q1 earning of the multi-nationals on the general markets.

    Mar 27, 2015 27:00 AM

    “Anyone who still believes that Central Banks and Governments do not manipulate the price of gold is probably still inclined to believe in the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus. For everyone who seeks to understand the truth, this admission by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, in testimony to Congress in July 1998 underscores the facts: “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”
    http://www.silverdoctors.com/paul-volker-gold-is-the-enemy/#more-52012

    Mar 27, 2015 27:16 AM

    “Again, central banks create infinite liquidity. Nobody can trade against them.
    That means central banks are controlling all futures prices in the United States.”

    http://usawatchdog.com/central-banks-secretly-controlling-all-futures-prices-chris-powell/

    Mar 27, 2015 27:54 AM

    The ‘Leaking Puppy’ chart pattern.

    Copper:
    http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2015/03/chart-of-day-is_27.html