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Gary discusses the dollar and commodities

Big Al
March 31, 2015

Chris and Gary chat about the possibility of a bottoming process in commodities, and at least a near-term top for the U.S. dollar

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Discussion
33 Comments
    Mar 31, 2015 31:00 AM

    GOLD..Rally until next option expiry….just my guess.
    Mark has the handle on the options., what say ye MARK.

    Mar 31, 2015 31:22 AM

    How is Big Al, hope he is recovering quickly.

      Mar 31, 2015 31:28 AM

      You’ll be hearing from him today!

        Apr 01, 2015 01:06 AM

        Another good market overview Chris & Gary. Great thoughts!

    Mar 31, 2015 31:32 AM

    Big Al took it hard when Gonzaga lost to Duke. Doc is from Michigan so he may be for the Spartans. Go Badgers!

    Mar 31, 2015 31:50 AM

    gary, It’s interesting that you now view the dollar as the key to where commodities in general are going,and more specifically gold and oil. this has been the obvious case for months, look at dollar chart from mid 2014 to now compared to oil. the problem with your analysis is that the dollar is a coincidental indicator of where oil gold etc are going and not leading. It therefore tells you nothing and has virtually no predictive value. Also as was the case back when the dollar (dxy) was consolidating at 94 or so and you felt it was due to drop, the same is occurring again, the dollar for now at least is doing nothing more than consolidating its rally from that former consolidation level.
    considering the geopolitics with Saudis, yemen, etc etc, it is surprising oil floundering, I suspect a great deal of the price near 48 is nothing but geopolitical risk, any moderation of this even short term will take that geopolitic risk out of the price of oil and it will crap to new lows below 40. Right now everybody feels oil should bounce simply because it’s come down a lot. Not good reasoning at all. Your recent blog prediction that oil will rally over next six eight weeks to mid 60’s won’t happen. It will either flounder at best.

    Mar 31, 2015 31:29 AM

    I went to the University of Michigan. As you’re aware, John Beilein is developing quite a basketball program at the University. He’s a real gentleman and I personally respect him a lot. Their results this year weren’t up to expectations this year but were due to a number of his players going pro last year and injuries to 2 of his starters. But watch out for next year. Their record will be much improved next year and they’ll be back in the NCAA tournament next year. When Michigan is out, I root for the Spartans of Michigan State and Tom Izzo, another honest good coach. I’m happy this year for Wisconsin as well. They have a formidable challenge ahead of them against the semi-pro team, Kentucky. It’ll be a fun weekend coming up. College basketball is one sport I enjoy watching since I played a lot of basketball in my younger years.

      Mar 31, 2015 31:12 AM

      I am confident that it will be a Big Ten final of Spartans and Badgers and hope that next year’s final will be Indiana vs. Michigan.

        Ron
        Mar 31, 2015 31:27 PM

        Would love to see Indiana vs. Michigan next yr…….. Being an I.U. grad…we’ve been out of the big games way too long!! I like Izzo. A excellent coach…..ND would have won if they had him the other night. A valiant effort by the Irish!

    Mar 31, 2015 31:06 PM

    ***MARK WHAT IS YOUR COMPUTER TELLING YOU ABOUT GOLD?******

    Mar 31, 2015 31:09 PM

    **crickets**

    Mar 31, 2015 31:35 PM

    Watch out for a potential significant move down in the conventional markets in the next few days—-the technical odds are good.

      Mar 31, 2015 31:51 PM

      Doc your never spoke today? What are you seeing with gold? Are you buying into this drop?

        Mar 31, 2015 31:42 PM

        No, Glen; I’m more fixated on the stocks. The stocks will have about 10 more days of pressure—then I’ll probably purchase a couple of ETFs very a short term move up.

      Mar 31, 2015 31:05 PM

      Noted Doc. I am watching the same thing.

    Mar 31, 2015 31:47 PM

    This is what I see:

    US$ will not go down.
    Commodities will not go up.
    US Market is rangebound 2050-2100.

    Mar 31, 2015 31:57 PM

    I’ll take my profits while the big tent is still up. Took 23% profit today on JDST. Sorry PM nerds. I had to cash in on some of your PAIN. 🙂

    Mar 31, 2015 31:04 PM

    Com in Mark…..

    Mar 31, 2015 31:05 PM

    For Com read Come!

    Mar 31, 2015 31:12 PM

    I will do the opposite of doc

    Apr 02, 2015 02:36 AM

    Greece has to leave the Eurozone eventually or have its debt forgiven periodically about every 10-15 years, not just once.
    However, it might take a long time for them to get kicked out or leave and I can’t see how the crisis can really stop until they do.
    The PIGS nations are serial currency debasers and therefore they will always need to devalue against the rest of the Eurozone every decade or so, not just this decade. If they can’t devalue, then the crisis will just intensify over time.
    There is no solution to it within the Eurozone, unless they have massive deflation of the whole cost structure in those countries, like a 50% fall in wages, etc. I think that is what is meant by ‘internal devaluation’ to stay in the Eurozone, wages and prices have to fall by a certain percentage every year for their kind of big government culture to continue.