Gary and Chris weigh in on the markets and precious metals
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
The fed is going to prop the market up forever. That is where they are going to get every dime to pay for the BLACK BUDGET………….jmho.
HI Marc……….did not mean to post under you………j.
HOW TO DETECT AN INTERNET TROLL…….zerohedge April 4……….SECOND ONE ON THE LIST………………..MISQUOTE THE BIBLE..
Sorry Marc, I am posting this under you, close to the top, this has nothing to do with you.best j……………..
What are you smoking? Sdmark.
BONDS AT 1% means you will DOUBLE YOUR MONEY IN …………..72YEARS…..LOL
cfs……I did not mean to post under you…….sorry
OOTB, you just posted under yourself as well!! 🙂
You are correct..oops……….
He will get it eventually. It’s a big learning process.
When you said “oops” did you actually mean ooo — ooo—ooo–oops?
hee hee birdy……..Got a good one for you at zerohedge………How to detect a TROLL.
What a steal.
Chris T. – I have been watching the deterioration of the long term interest rates for a while and am continually fascinated by “how low can they go?”
TLT has served me well : – )
As it should – whoda thunk that you’d get a 30% annual return on Treasuries???
The party will be over one day, indeed. And anyone who’d buy Treasuries for the long haul needs his head examined. But for now, still one of the best–and safest — games in town
Yes, that is a remarkable return on Treasuries, and under-pins how messed up the markets really are. Until there is any sign of real interest rates rising then the party goes on. I don’t consider a token 25-50 point increase by the Fed later in the year a substantial rate hike, and is just window dressing. They have painted themselves into a corner by leaving a zero interest rate environment for too long.
whoda thunk it is right….
Gary – I agree with you that there really isn’t a great long-term “buy and hold” option at this point…too much turbulence, and major reversals expected over the next few months. I would say in a few months some of those cycles will start reaching their reversal points, and this would be a better time to enter long term positions in commodities, and later in the year a time to start shorting stocks longer term.
No, J…It means that this year you’d likely have about a 30% total return on LT Treasuries, just as was the case in 2014. And that’s because, as rates fall, the principal value of existing Treasuries goes UP. THIS is why one should be in Treasuries; not for the pitiful yield.
Less taxes…..And what will be the long term return?
if rates go up……..what is the value of that bond.?
but, good point btw.
Ah, J…that’s the question. When does it end? Because when rates go up, the value of the bond will go down.
Temple…Like you said …whoda thunk it….
Does anyone think the bonds can go to where Japanese Government Bonds have gone? In other words, can the USA get away with under 1% on long term bonds and government debt:GDP at 200-250%?
CFS –
I guess you dont read my posts…at all..no worries…I HAVE MY TONGUE place FIRMLY IN MY CHEEK…….I smoke reality…not illusitory BS..the economy is absolutely a disaster…YES….QE 4 oe whatever… is coming and coming fast..does that make more sense professor CFS……I think so!….All the best…CFS I always appreciate your generosity of info and research you provide this blog…thanks again!
I didn’t doubt you Marc!
Sorry – Matthew you are definitely the ‘professor”…I was just making a reference to CFS’ professional occupation – he was a college professor right?..if not…by bad!
Lol, yes, I think he is the real professor.
WHY NOT ASK CFS….where he taught……….
I will ask…………..HEY CFS……WHERE DID YOU TEACH COLLEGE…respectfully J.
Oxford, UK, in physics. Purdue, IN, After I.B.M.’ Watson Research Center.
Thank you CFS…….I thought you were a Purdue guy….btw, my wife went to PU.
BTW. congrads on your accomplishment …really, ….J.
Oxford……now that is impressive.
Well…….IF a guy from OXFORD U. is smart enough to hang around silver and gold….I think we all are on the right track………….just saying……………OOTB.
I went to Oxford J on a bicycle!! In fact lived there for the best part of 23 years
I am impressed that you were so fragile concerning your method of transportation, but you do have a BENTLEY now, as I am told.
All kidding aside……did you teach at Oxford Andy…….
Hey, Rev, I know it no longer exists, but did you ever enjoy Parson’s Pleasure?
Mark is smoking Willy’s Weed! LOL! DT
I forgot to add he didn’t inhale!
Alexandria develops 20 new targets from airborne survey.
Alexandria Minerals seems to be making good progress for sure.
AZX isn’t just cheap…it’s OBSCENELY cheap. When smart money is willing to pay 2 or 3 times the market price for shares in a private placement, you should pay attention!
Absolutely! They have some great activity going on and I read their press release today on the Cadillac Break property. Good drill targets and plans for exploration.
Great show guys and good to hear you back on the air Cory. Try and enjoy that honeymoon a little though. Don’t you Ker guys ever take any rest and get a little well deserved R&R?
Ditto that.
I agree with Chris……………for a while.
IMHO, a short squeeze in gold might be unfolding:
(from y’day)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-31/crowded-trade-20-specs-have-never-been-more-short-gold-or-euro
Best to all and GL investing/trading
LPG
Short squeeze, until the end of the month…..then all the paper boys, can collect their commissions on the option expiry.
I would agree with that and given the complete lack of bullishness even among smart money, it could turn into more. I’ve never felt so alone while buying (this week or the week of the all-time low for GDXJ)! 🙂
If GDXJ can close above 23.75 today or 23.65 tomorrow, I believe we’ll challenge the 3/25 high at 25.24 in a hurry.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93369700140&a=401329681
You are not alone in your buying. I have added shares for two miners. I am trend trading JNUG/NUGT (and their evil, short twins) and they are both soaring today.
Congratulations. I booked light profits on GDXJ calls today and added to AXU and a couple others (many others if we count Monday and Tuesday).
I added to AXU today, also. Two interesting post on the Yahoo message board for perspective on the current price ($US 0.36)
——
AXU is the best call option on the silver price
At $20 silver AXU will be $1.15, at $22-24 silver $2.30, you get the picture.
——
You can acquire the AEG environmental division
for under 60 % of its value and get the 60M oz silver reserves and mill for FREE
The AEG operation is worth $40M based on annual revenue of $17M and profit of $6M. Hecla or another silver miner can easily do a takeover at $35-45M and sell off AEG add the cash in AXU’s treasury they then would have 50-60M high silver ozs with a mill for ZERO
——
Thanks; so much for “efficient” markets!
Good thoughts on GDXJ Matthew. I think with the close at $24.07 today that it is much more likely that GDXJ can take out that $25.24 peak in April. We may see some pressure in PMs tomorrow or Friday, but I think we are set for a short leg up in PMs for mid-April.
If we take a step back tomorrow, I may pick up a little JNUG myself.
JNUG has been a freakin’ tear since yesterday afternoon. Good job Brian!
I prefer options if looking for leverage. The calls I bought yesterday are up 110% overnight.
THAT beats the hell out of bonds…………….
Awesome Matthew!!
Personally, I watch open interest in options, for an indication of where things may be going and key support & resistance areas, but am not experienced with trading them.
I just booked a 140% gain on some and 160% on others with a different strike and expiration.
I actually think I’m leaving money on the table, but you gotta do what you gotta do.
If GDXJ can close the week just slightly higher than today, next week is likely to be a good one (I actually expect it to be either way).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p77132317849&a=401328840
I’d have taken some profits at 140-160% gains as well. No shame in that man.
As mentioned above, if we get a little pullback in gold and GDXJ from here I may pick up some JNUG but wouldn’t expect to make the same profits you just did, but there also isn’t the ticking clock with a 3 x inverse ETF compared to options, and that is what makes me nervous on options. Yes, there is some decay in the ETF but it is minimal and if I buy low and sell higher, it usually works out OK, even if I get stuck for a week or two in it, there is no expiry.
I got out of JDST yesterday for 23% profit. Bag holding on NUGT hoping for at least $12.35 for profits.
Good job booking profits yesterday in JDST Jason! If we do get a pop next week in PMs continuing into mid-April, then NUGT has a good chance of getting above that $12.35 to at least $13.06. It may take 1-2 weeks though. Best to you sir.
thanks for sharing your thoughts Matthew….always appreciated , and you to Brian..J.
Cory/Chris,
I just read recently that Avi Gilburt mentioned during his PDAC presentation that he expects a bottom in gold WITHIN THE NEXT 6 MONTHS.
To my knowledge, he never mentioned this on the show.
Next time he’s in (upcoming WE show maybe?) , I think it would be interesting to have him elaborate on that point.
Just a suggestion.
Best to all,
LPG
He has mentioned it a few times, LPG, although not in such specific terms. Avi asserted we would get ONE more leg down before the final bottom based on Elliot theory. That leg may be upon us if this head and shoulders pattern I have identified does indeed come into play. So far so good. Todays action has not yet violated the pattern.
Birdman,
I don’t think he mentioned “Within the next 6 months” (ie by Aug-Sept) on shows here.
This is the point I’m stressing – not the fact that he expects one more leg down.
Best,
LPG
I just went back and listened to the March 18th show with Avi Gilburt, and he was discussing his “Evil Scenario” where he thought Gold may bottom soon below the Nov 2014 low, and get everyone into the market for a leg up, only to have their hopes dashed further down the road as it heads lower. Could this be what he is discussing when he expects the bottom in Gold soon?
Remember, this was the day where Matthew helped by posting some Dr. Evil videos in the blog : – )
good point Shad……..
hi ppl! avi is right.This retracement is minor wave 2 of 3 of 5 for all those familar with ewa.As I said before to chartist this retracement has the potential to target the 1225-1245 barrier.Pms will go up close to the 2015 highs and down they go again.dyodd and dont take any of what i have said as an investment advice.Gl ppl.
That is good analysis Don Corleone. I am looking at those same levels and expect the same pattern to play out through April and May.
This is part of Avi’s talk:
“So, while many that have read my analysis over the last three years have viewed me as being the staunchest of bears in the metals world, I am now switching sides and moving strongly into the bull camp, especially after we see the next and final decline which should take place over the next half a year.”
http://www.advicetrade.com/ewreport/Buy-Gold-On-Strong-Dollar-or-Buy-On-Weak-Dollar-2015032837.html
Yes, I tend to agree with Avi on this point and have heard him touch on it before in different articles he put out (some of which were posted to this site in the last month or so). However, it would be great to get a Mid-term update from Avi on where he sees the retracement levels and support levels he is watching.
It is not going to take long to reach those levels shad.When rsi gets in overbrought territory 76 approx and macd gets to zero i.e. the 26ema crosses the 12 ema on the daily; that would be the time to jump in on the short side for a sharp drop down to november lows and below.
Good thoughts Don Corleone, and I’ll be watching for an RSI over 76 and MACD that has bottomed out for clues that the time has arrived.
Do you think that this could happen in late April/early May?
That is seasonally when Gold has a tendency to take a little dip, but this time it will be matching up with many commodities that have been basing and bottoming. If the dollar were to turn down for a bit into mid-April, but then rocket back up in May, this could provide the stimulus for a sell down past the Nov 2014 lows.
Is that further out than you are looking? To may late April/May is not long but you mean sometime in the very near future.
This retracement in gold could end by the second week of april.eur/usd will be 1.13 an dx 94.5roughly by that time.The next downleg in gold will not be the last but the one before.imho gold will hit the very bottom i.e. $700-$800 by the fall of this year and that will coincide with the top in stock market imho.Gold will then retrace to the 1320-1460 level and down it goes again to the 250-400 level which will coincide with the third, fourth,and fifth waves down in stock market(dow 6600).It is there when gold bugs would have the opportunity of their lifetime.
Shad imho gold will ultimately bottom (250-400) in 2020.Deflationary pressure is gonna choke the pms to death and many miners will go belly up.Mark my words.When stock market collapses all the money that has been printed(electronically) is gonna disappear and there is gonna be less money chasing the same goods and that is deflationary.Gl buddy.
Shad,
My take would be 13 day having started yesterday as day 1. That puts the top of the right shoulder in and about the 17-21 of april. If this is a bull trap then at that point we would expect the long and anticipated drop that Lord chartster has been talking about.
What most in here need to realize is that “If” we get to that rsi/level that now the whole world will be waiting to sell on, does it end the bullish pattern and we go down for final low? or does it fake 90% of investors out and continue higher and marking a final stamp that the low was put in on November 2014?
Very few are expecting higher prices but much more are expecting head and shoulders top. It has me scratching my head. On the surface it looks good as you say shad but everyone is on the same boat in here from what I read.
glen
Well those are some very interesting thoughts to consider. I see what you are mapping out with the bottom at $700-$800, then a leg up to 1320-1460, and then down to the $250-$400 level as the final bottom for waves 3/4/5.
I just have to ask how prices could that far below the cost of production? Even at $700-$800 most mines would go belly up. How could any company survive in the future at a $250-$400 gold price?
Glenfidish – Great thoughts as always.
I am very comfortable with day one of 13 starting yesterday and the 17-21 of April as the short term top in PMs. That should coincide with the short term bottom in the dollar, and then they both reverse directions in late April into May.
Now you really hit the nail on the head with the question about whether the leg down that starts in late April/May will be the final “Major Bottom”, or whether it will fake out 90% of traders and actually head higher, proving that the Nov 14th low held and was the actual bottom, and we never see 1130. I believe Matthew and Brian would feel very good if that is what plays out, as they have both postulated this could be what plays out.
The other wildcard is Avi Gilburt’s “Evil Scenario” where Gold heads up much higher in April/May, is a bull trap, gets everyone bullish, and then heads down into the end of the year dashing the bulls hopes once more.
That is 3 different tracks things can take, but then Don Corleone brought up the 4th very bearish track right above in this tread.
**I’ve laid out at the bottom of this thread to Charster and Stewie why I am leaning towards a mid-April pop in PMs, followed by a sell down in PMs in late April/May, and how that would correlate to dollar top based on reactions to Q1 earnings depressing the miners/stocks/oil/financials/multinationals and causing people to flock back into the dollar and bonds for safety. Then, eventually the dollar will roll over and come under pressure when June Fed meeting nears, when the debt ceiling issue starts getting discussed again, when the affects from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) become more apparent, and when the Petro Dollar gets pressured by OPEC and Saudi Arabia throwing in the towel and trading oil in whatever currency it wants to.
We have a turbulent 3-6 months ahead of us, and really any of these 4 scenarios can play out, but for the short term we are in agreement, and we’ll see where it goes in late April.
Cheers mate!!
Shad,
Thank you for the kind words. You bring up a great point in relation to short term top in gold and reverse for dollar. Yes what im thinking is short term top then down for two weeks maybe or less while dollar double tops? or goes higher?then another higher move for gold as corleone stated and i would think that is the top at which everyone believes they must exit.
Bird has mentioned that he believes the dollar will retrace the whole move it just currently made. He believe the top is in from what i understand. Matt believes the dollar is going down. The answer to everything is the dollar.
Agreed my good man Glenfidish. The key for now is the dollar and why people are flocking to it, and why they will start fleeing from it in the 2nd half of 2015.
Have a great day and don’t keep all those amazing trading secrets from you and Matthews email communications to yourselves. I’m willing to consider anything you and he come up with; as you are both S-H-A-R-P.
Shad,
One last thing i wanted to mention was the fibanocci % have been working like a charm. Matt has been instrumental in hammering away fundamentals + fibs/pivot points. So if used correctly it does not matter if gold goes to 100 dollars. Keep applying the math as we are competing with computers. We invented them just try and play at there level.
Shad miners will pass through what the oil companies have passed through when oil dropped from $147 to $33 in six months time between july 2008 and jan 2009.There is gonna be a lot of mergers an aquisitions and many will file for bancruptcy especially the junior miners.Gold will reach 700-800 by the beginning of fall and that will coincide with the top in stock market.At first gold will move inversely to the market and it would retrace to 1320-1460 but then it will reverse course and it will move in tandem with the stockmarket i.e. downwards to reach the 250-400 target which imo will be reached by 2020.
I agree with you that gold cannot have seen its bottom for the exact point you have just made. The market clearing event has not yet occurred and so it is inconceivable we would yet see a price recovery in gold and silver as long as the cleansing process is incomplete.
That is just how it works…that is how it always works.
We don’t even need to know why except that the season has not ended until winter is over and the inefficient firms have been purged while the misallocations of capital from the past have been squared away.
Too many in the gold sphere seem to fear what is actually a natural part of the business cycle. They are just dying for the price of gold to go back up so they waste endless reams of good paper on articles about how others are deviously manipulating the market.
We are in fact in the midst of a story that has repeated thousands of times before in every conceivable asset class and all through time. We might just as well get used to it and accept that what goes up must also come down. And until we have factually hit the bottom there cannot be a turn back upwards.
During this time we will see that what was valuable will be preserved and what was wasted will be purged.
REVENUES REVENUES REVENUES. Last quarter S&P 500 companies saw year over year revenue decreases. What if that happens again this quarter. I’m just wondering with the government continuously talking about growth at what point do people finally point out the emperor has no clothes. If economy growing you really could be seeing declining revenue, declining oil, declining lumber, declining electric production, China reporting year over year rail traffic declines of 7%+, etc. So tired of this invincible market.
meant to say “couldn’t be seeing.”
great point MATT B.
I completely agree Matt B.
Good interview. Continues to be a “selective stockpickers market” or the “rifle” approach as Al used to call it.
Just for a laughs I would like to know, when is a market not a “stock pickers” market?
Isn’t that the truth, concerning… the stock picker…..
Yes it is always a stock-pickers market, but this phrase is usually referring to a sector that may be on the rocks, facing decline, but has within it a few shining stars. When the whole sector is on a tear (like Gold & Silver in 2009, 2010, 2011) then most of the stocks are following the same direction up. High tide rises all boats.
So when people throw out the baby with the bathwater, then there are select stocks in sector that may outperform the rest of the sector averages. I think that was the point Chris was making.
good point Shad……btw got any orders on those pin adas
Well when I saw all the Fed-Chairmen/chairwoman Pin~atas (Greenspan, Benanke, Yellen) all lined up and full of monopoly money, I couldn’t take it and I ended up beating them all up myself : – )
Guess I’ll stick to trading stocks over my Fed Chairman Pinatas.
I THINK we should just keep to ….PIN THE TAil ON THE JACKASS. Less hassle, and only one target.
Ha! That works for me OOTB.
OOTB? Listen carefully to this track. You can really hear them saying OOTB…OOTB..OOTB!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fyl6C3Cq1k
Sorry, I could not resist. 🙂
Warning no. 10……I am not sure who the biggest idiot is here. You for looking up the tape and pasting it here, or me for listening to 2 min. of your mother calling you home.
OH, just kidding……
What a bunch of monkey-business.
Eeee Eeee Ooooo Ooooo Ahhhhh Ahhhh!
Bird, your a funny guy. Find out when the guy asked
his buddies in the bar ” why he was a funny guy” ?
Viewer descretion advised with vulgarity. Does not
probably apply to you Bird. Don’t complain later though.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r_DwZfyXAXI
This is a clip from one of the best all time movies.
All the Boys havin a real good time. Funny as hell.
Goodfellas, I love it. – a classic clip Heavy Hitter. Well played!
Thanks Shad happy you enjoyed it. If I could have
blocked some vulgarity I would have. Purpose of
the post was in hope that BIrd can see the humorous
side of all of us in here and set aside all our differences.
We are all just…The Boys in here having a good time
like the video. From time to time. Not destroying all
that comes in here from a valuable poster like you
Shad and so many others. Keep up the excellent
commentary. Best I’ve seen in many cases. You
are highly knowledgeable. ; )
Yep, Goodfellas is a riot. Great classic.
BIRD is now pretending his has a following of White Middle Class Women
Ya…J…that big family gathering of his he recorded
was some Ape sh%t fun he had that day with his
relatives.
Good monkey times. Each to their own. Not my bag !!!
I know..J you found it a very unusual in how some find
enjoyment.
I am wondering if Bird is using a new moniker to answer himself
WMCW…white middle class women. ..
What ever it is he needs a good priest to administer
to him. Save him from himself.
Where is Reverend Andrew when you need him. I
know he has exhausted all of his efforts most likely
in this regard.
Thats my view and not to hip on monikers but I’m
sure its something to consider.
All of the above.
J……..HA……think you got something there.
Only way he can communicate with WMCW’s.
I was having a senior moment on that one…J.
Plus I’m fairly simple guy the term moniker is not
ever used. Never attended Oxford either.
Sorry about that !!!!!!
A guy like Reverend Andrew who is the educated
genius here would have pierced right through it in
a New York second.
Take Bird a few minutes maybe. Me, I may never
get it.
HH..NO problem with the senior moment, this site will give you pause.
or is that PAWS….
Good one ..J….”.paws”..
Tell “whos a whats it” to keep his monkey paws off you.
Ha..Ha….even if he does ..J…you’re still going to have to
deal with all the relatives.
and J….that’s no cake walk. .. lol…slippin on chiquita nana peels. ..uh.ha..ha..ha : )
HH……great DAY coming…. Resurrection Day……best to you…if I do not hear from you before .
I could not stop laughing. This thread is so over the top silly even my cat puked up a hairy mouse leg when he saw it.
Bird, …..YOU ARE A FUNNY GUY… !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ha ..Haaaaaaaa
The cat…is even..in on it. How can you not like this sh%t.
FUNNY AS HELL…Birds a ..Real Funny Guy. ..you really are.
That’s why I sent you that video. It’s all you.
J…..he has risen and it is done. Or our faith is all a lie.
A witness to eternal life. Jesus. Only one that saves.
WHAT TIME IS IT !!!!!!!!!!
Its ..Tamaguchi Time !!!!
When they come out….they are ..hilarious !!!!
Like Old Buck Shot…Haaa..Haaa ..he doesn’t even realize he’s funny.
No pun intended but ya can’t help but …bust out laughin.
I really have no idea what to do at the moment so it is proaly best to do nothing.
I am not convinced by this spike in gold/silver.
When I see spikes like this I think it more a pump, suck suckers in and then dump. Of course, the Greece situation might be the reason why gold has spiked as people fear that the Greeks will default over the coming weekend.
The conventional stocks are currently down but, hey, they could close 200 points UP – who knows. I think the volatility that we are seeing in conventional stocks now – up, down, up, down – is indicative of a market that is close to toppling significantly.
proaly = probably
We would also have accepted Prolly.
Gold up on a weaker USD does not seem indicative of a market worrying about a Greek default though – I imagine that the USD would have moved higher if people feared a Greek default was imminent?
I think the majority of press and market participants have fallen asleep to the ongoing Greek saga. It has been going on for 2-3 years now, and this latest mess is actually very serious, but people get numb to a story in 3-5 days, and move on to something else. However, you are probably correct that people aren’t that concerned Greek will default in the near-term. That is why if something did happen it would catch everyone with their drawers down.
Bob
The spiking today is “prolly” due to short-covering. Recent COT reports indicate a near-record high short position (paper futures). Many of the entities holding these gold short contracts only have $20 up move before margin calls. The “fingerprints” for short covering are there in the 1-minute charts – quick spikes followed by gradual back-filling.
Brian
Sorry, I meant to type 10-minute charts.
This chart is fun to stare at on days like today 😉
Thanks – short covering makes more sense.
As much as I would like to be jumping aboard a train about to leave the station… I have a feeling that on Thurs or Friday we will be a fair bit lower.
The markets are closed in U.S. and Canada on Friday.
Oh, of course. Yes, I had forgotten. It is that time of the year when people celebrate the making of ‘Life of Brian’ and give thanks to Playboy for using bunnies to leave chocolate eggs under the hot cross buns.
Or something like that 🙂
Thanks for reminding me.
Hey Bob…ever hear this one?
Why does the Easter Bunny hide her eggs?
So nobody knows that she is screwing chickens!
That’s funny Bird.
How does the goose that lays golden eggs fit in?
Come on bb….this is about Easter, not sex 🙂
Funny Bob UK, Birdman, and BB.
excellent observation brian.Cot is another good indicator to look at.Commercial traders usually have inside information eventough they dont admit it 🙂
Don, the Commercial guys follow some of the most basic chart rules known to man. In particular they follow long term trends of rise and fall and believe it or not (shock!) they are into cycle theory. Their basic technique is to get out ahead of the curve so when the turns come they are strategically placed to benefit most from the reversals in price. Mind you, it can be costly while they wait on the wrong side of a trade and you have probably noticed they are not always the best timers.
They have to do so otherwise they would give the retail investor a clear indication of what is next and that goes against their interest.They allocate their money in bundles and they start unloading prior to the anticipated move.Using this method they will go unnoticed on the volume indicator.It is astute if you think about it.
On Monday I said that 26 looks like a certainty for UUP and, to the penny, that’s where it turned down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=22&id=p25075491410&a=400666403&listNum=1
Hey Matthew. Good point. As we discussed last week I still expect UUP to go up over 26 this week, and my target would be tomorrow for that move over 26. That is a big target on UUP, so it natural hit it and recoiled, but it should go through the next time it tests that resistance zone. Just my 2 cents.
____________________________________________________
On March 27, 2015 at 12:05 am,
Shad says:
Yeah, we aren’t far from 25.85 in UUP, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go higher than that next week.
On March 27, 2015 at 6:55 am,
Matthew says:
I don’t know, UUP is looking pretty wimpy today…
On March 27, 2015 at 7:36 am,
Shad says:
Yeah, today is a wildcard, but I expect it to move up past 26 next week.
_______________________________________________________
The week isn’t over yet, and while I believe it will go higher, it is possible that 26 was the short-term top and we’ll have another reversal down into mid April.
I do expect the dollar to put in a short-term top soon and have a brief leg down, giving a breather to PMs and allowing Gold to get to the 1230 zone in April. For UUP I would think this short-term top would be around $26.22.
Good analysis shad.Watch eur/usd too giving that euro makes up to 60% of the dx.Commodity currencies like aud,nzd an african rand move proportional to gold i.e. the stronger they get the stronger the pms an vice versa.The more crosscheckings you get the better your conclusions would be.
Great thoughts Don Corleone, and I agree that the Euro has an overweight ratio in the dollar basket, and that the commodity currencies trend with Gold, which can accelerate dollar moves.
Thanks Shad; yes it’s way too early to write-off your two cents!
Thanks. It may make no sense or no cents tomorrow….(ha!)
Really it isn’t a big deal if 26 was the short-term top. I am just watching for a point at right above 26 for the dollar to roll over and dip down a bit further which will give the PMs a boost. Don has some good points above about tracking the USD against different currencies as the basket is proportionately tipped to the Euro correlation, and counter to the commodity currencies.
PMs got a boost today and it didn’t take much $ weakness. I guess markets really are forward looking. 😉
Well, I look into that : – )
Where is Mr. Holy Grail with his bearish gold predictions.
His not flying around here braggin.
Good rally too. A gold permabear guru like Mr. Holy Grail
DISAPPEARS… in flight to another branch to perch on.
Neat trick !!! lol
I might point out two things apparent today:
Precious metals are all up similar percentages to gold.
Despite the general stocks being down in the US the TSX is up.
Yep the PMs traveled as a team today. It does happen where the PGMs track with Gold/Silver. It is just more common for Platinum to track with Gold & Silver, than Palladium, but it depends on if it is a macro situation (like today stocks down and dollar down so most commodities including oil, copper, zinc were also up). The PGMs more often track with the Base Metals though. Then there are uncorrelated days where the unique supply demand fundamentals for Palladium that have it marching to the beat of a different drummer.
I posted more thoughts and questions for anyone interested in Palladium at the top of the Chris Temple blog today.
kitco today…….
analysis at UBS, says
Investors have become less bearish on the gold market.
“we maintain the view that the bulk of selling has likely already occurred, and those who are still holding on to their positions have higher PAIN THRESHOLDS and LONGER INVESTMENT horizons – we estimate a modest increase in gold ETF’s this year.
That seems like a fair assessment of the marketplace, but what remains to be seen is the test of the Nov 2014 lows in gold of 1130. If that level was to get breached, (as I think in likely in May) or like Glenfidish thinks could happen in Nov of this year, then how would the pain thresholds hold up?
If we got down to 1044 or below1000 would there be a panic? Is gold truly now only in the stronger hands or would could there be one last washout where people give up hope right at the exact wrong time — the bottom?
This is the saga that still needs to play out in 2015 to get the bottom in Gold and the end of the 4 year Bear.
Shad…….when you have brass b…s the pain no longer exist.
Ha! That is a great point. I tend to agree with the kitco article and do think the majority of selling has happened, and that (in general) the people holding gold are the strong hands with brass gonads.
However, it remains to be see how brassy they are when gold inevitably tests 1130 sometime this year. My hope is that it only breaks down to the 1044 and doesn’t need to go test sub-$1000 Gold, but if it did, it would meet Jim Rogers criteria of a 50% correction in the 4 year bear.
Regardless, my guess is that if long term holders make it through this last leg down, that they could even add to their positions at that point, and have an even better long-term hold.
I think the majority of strong hands have their basis of cost much lower than $1000, and have been waiting for the mania to start. …jmho
and I agree with your guess………..
Money illusion has four stages. In stage one, the groundwork for inflation is laid by central banks but is not yet apparent to most investors. This is the “feel good” stage where people are counting their nominal gains but don’t see through the illusion.
Stage two is when inflation becomes more obvious. Investors still value their nominal gains and assume inflation is temporary and the central banks “have it under control.”
Stage three is when inflation begins to run away and central banks lose control. Now the illusion wears off. Savings and other fixed-income cash flows such as insurance, annuities and retirement checks rapidly lose value. If you own hard assets prior to stage three, you’ll be spared. But if you don’t, it will be too late because the prices of hard assets will gap up before the money illusion wears off.
Finally, stage four can take one of two paths. The first path is hyperinflation, such as Weimar Germany or Zimbabwe. In that case, all paper money and cash flows are destroyed and a new currency arises from the ashes of the old. The alternative is shock therapy of the kind Paul Volcker imposed in 1980. In that case, interest rates are hiked as high as 20% to kill inflation… but nearly kill the economy in the process.
Right now, we are in late stage one, getting closer to stage two. Inflation is here in small doses and people barely notice. Savings are being slowly confiscated by inflation, but investors are still comforted by asset bubbles in stocks and real estate. Be nimble and begin to buy some inflation insurance in the form of hard assets before the Stage Three super-spike puts the price of those assets out of reach.
Regards,
Jim Rickards
Hey thanks bb. That was a good post from Rickards. First time I have seen it.
Good post, bb.
I think we are in stage 3, about to enter stage four and a new economy.
Assets will be king.
Chartster I think I would agree with you.
Maybe Chartster although it doesn’t look promising
with the business cycle in the very peak of that cycle.
All I see is industrial, commercial and retail begging for
a tenent. Empty space is absolutely plentiful.
Nope, odds are a crash coming in lots of assets.
Business cycle top and bag holders ….chumped !!!!
Once again. Short memories people have.
HH,
The bottom of gold will mark the bottom of retail and real estate as well. We will soon be in a new economy.
And the bottom in gold is coming soon! Just take a look at the 50 DMA on everything in the PM sector. The last few days the 50 DMA turned into a wet noodle. This retest in PMs is short lived.
I don’t buy it chartster but respect your opinion.
I can’t claim anything I say is a 100 %.
Except for war. We will not discuss that here.
TonIte when everyone has left this facility.
Be back later tonite. Thanks for the reply. : )
Chartster make sure to let us know when you go short or when you buy in. Up till now all i have heard from you is the roof is going to fall off. Put yourself in everyone else’s shoes. How about you back up your claims with buy orders of any sort?
You got guys on here loud and clear who put there money/chips on the table..I personally have done so many times. You just can’t keep putting fear or trying to intimidate people even if it’s the truth. Why not just wait quietly until it happens instead of always coming out on a crucial moment and saying the same thing over and over and being proven wrong. At some point you might be correct but what do you win with saying its going to the ground and your not even putting chips in long or short? Seriously i question your motive. Prove me wrong give us a call?
J im in ontario
HH…….I think there will be a new business cycle , but, no one will like what it looks like. Chris and Doc seem to think everyone will be pushing wheel barrels around , with loads of cash…..I think they will be using wheel barrels and donkey whips, as we inter the Banana Republic. Maybe that was what Tweety was trying to say earlier, with his message from monkey land.
From what I see traveling…..from north to south…..there is a lot of vacant space available., so I have to agree with HH, on the plentiful amount of space available.
Concerning residential real estate…. it still does not look good.
Yes..J…business cycle is now crescendoing. Topping !!
So the bottom IMO is way down the road.
Thanks for the valuable input. Many truths there.
As usual. WIsdom from all corners above and…below tooo?? lol
Anyway, be back tonight. Catch up later brother J… : ) Be good…..
J….the Long. I agree with your on the residential real estate still not looking to hot, and that there is still plentiful amount of space available. Also, the millennials that should be first time home-owners in such a attractive low interest rate environment are opting to rent instead, creating more of a supply glut in housing. … not good.
Shad………I think you are correct on the millennials and their desire not to own, and their lack of income to own.
HH,J,shad,other,
Do you guys mind talking a little about the canadian side of realstate. Over priced square boxes..At what point in life because im running out will this shit collapse. Rates going higher in canada? I’ve been waiting for way to long. When I look at long term chart, id hate to be waiting in a period where this bottom extends for 10 more years with lower rates before higher. I mean it went up to 21.50% prime rate in 12/19/1980. Shortly after gold topped 8-9 month before.
Glen, R.E. is way over valued. Now, to prove that with the
best minds out there google..Robert Shiller you might get
the lastest. Robert Campbell R.E. analyst in San Diego.
He is the best in the business currently warning.
Canada will follow fairly close to our market.
My advise, do not buy. Should be 80% odds of being correct.
Nothing is 100%. I sincerely hope this helps a valued poster
here on the board like yourself. Sincerely yours HH. : )
glenfidish…Canadian real estate is not my specialty . But, what I have been able to observe in the last few years, is that Canadian real estate has been a step behind the US market. From shows I have seen, and the housing that I have observed, the market looks more like NY real estate. The unfortunate thing, I do not see how people are going to afford housing going forward, if rates return to anything close to 21 % interest.
I experience the market during the 70 and 80s, and there were a lot of creative deals at that time. The situation which we had, was the incomes, were not out of line with market value, the problem was the cost of money or the interest rates.
if, interest rates would return to 20%, the mortgages payments would increase 15 x approx.. A house with a mortgage of $800,000 based on a 30 yr. fixed mortgage, would be $8000 month plus taxes and insurance, this is approx. SO, can the average middle income family afford $8000 per month, the answer is no. So, if , someone wants to sell the real estate something has to give. and that will be the value or sale price .
Or, the length of mortgage will have to be extended to 100 year mortgages. to bring the payments down to a reasonable payment of affordability…..
..Incomes have not kept pace with the inflationary price of housing, this is going to be a problem………………………………..j
After thinking about the mortgage of 800,000 , at 20%….for 30 yrs…….I think you will need to increase the payment even more.
Then interest for the first year will be $120,000
The new number is $13,300 plus taxes and insurance. per month for 30 yr fixed rate.
Heavy and J thanks a bunch guys I really respect your knowledge.
Just frustrating as I have been renting for 5 years and the wife is going to divorce me. Im of the thinking when rates do rise, i think they will hike often and every three months. For the record i don’t think they raise the, for sometime. I maybe wrong.
glenfidish……Where in Canada do you live?
I disagree Chartster, I think we are exactly as Rickards says, late stage one.
If/when the inflation hits, due to the money printing, it will be mind boggling.
So much so, we will have to create a new currency.
sdr? rmb becomes the reserve?
The U.S. may need their police militarized etc
Interesting post from Jim Rickards BB. I agree that we are in the very end of Stage 1, and feel that Stage 2 is beginning.
The S&P is at the same price level as it was 8 trading sessions ago.That being said the price of a September 2015 Put has increased by $25.00. The cost of insurance is rising.
Meaning?
Bob:
I think evidence will start showing the S&P is heading for a protracted decline.
I also think that 1st quarter earnings is the start of the decline.
Chris and Gary confirm my thinking. I did take notice when Chris said that it is probably risky to start shorting.
Thanks.
So the Put insurance is rising because there is a growing belief that markets will be lower in September?
I think the smart money is hedging. I picked the 2100 strike price in September as a control to test out my thinking.
Sure there is going to be a time premium,and as time goes on I can establish a mean for that.
Time will tell.
I hate to break it to you guys but this is going to be one or two day rally and we’re heading back down. If anything this should be shorted via JDST or something. By summer we should paint 1050 on the tape and HUI will be cut in half between 100-75.
What we all need to understand is that gold has been in no mans lands for last year and half (this summer) and that means in order for us to move higher final wash out NEEDS TO OCCUR so we can get the bull market started. If this does not occur gold will be trading sideways for years. Prey prey my friend wash out occurs. Otherwise you’ll lose years and time is more important then money as no one can buy time.
Good thoughts Stewie. I agree that gold will need to have a final wash out this year (but my target isn’t in April but rather May/June). Regardless of whether this is next week or the end of the year the 1130 November 2014 low will most likely get tested and drop down to $1044 or sub-$1000. Everyone will freak out, and we can take long-term positions at that point.
Sold JDST yesterday for 23% profit. Looking for a reentry under 10. Might have to average down on NUGT since I am in at $11.17.
very good observation stewie.Look at the rsi/macd divergence on the weekly djia chart from feb2014 todate and you will soon realize that a correction is due.Having said that I will not enter any short positions before the lower trendline on logarithmic djia chart is breeched.
Stewie,
I think the washout is right here upon us. Look at the last few days of the 50 DMA.
Chartster and Stewie – You guys may be right, but I think we’ll get a small leg up into mid-April, and then start the decline in late April. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some of todays gains in gold erased tomorrow or Friday of this week. I do think next week and the week there after may have a falling dollar and higher PM price, but we’ll have to see how it shakes out.
Good luck in everyone’s trading!
Shad,
Are you thinking low in May from a cycle standpoint ?
My opinion is we get a cycle low in late April. To get to the low, the drop should start soon.
Hey Chartster –
More from a seasonal standpoint/Q1 earnings reports standpoint/fear of a June Fed rate hike, and a larger term monthly chart perspective.
I think there may be a little more weakness in PMs in the immediate term, but then I expect a little bounce up into mid-April. When the Q1 numbers start getting reported in late April & May, then there may be a great deal of disappointment in some PM miners, oil companies, multinationals, and in the general markets. As a result people will likely flock to the US Dollar and bonds for safety. This should spike the dollar to around 110, and pressure the commodity complex in May.
However, it will likely get overdone in the dollar and if/when it tops and rolls over, this will start the PMs heading higher (June). I expect the miners to come of the gates before the metals do though, so if we get any dip in April/May in the miners I’ll be building to my positions.
Eventually I think the dollar will come under more scrutiny, the debt ceiling issue will surface again, the affects for the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) will become more apparent, and the continuing oil doldrums will pressure the Petro-Dollar, and the Middle East will likely shock the west by saying screw this system, we’ll exchange oil in whatever currency we want.
At this point, Gold will start looking very attractive when the dollar and stock markets are under pressure, and we should have the end of the 4 year Bear in gold and the beginning a new Gold Bull.
I realize that is a lot of speculation, but that is my take on it at present. If things play out differently in April and May, then I’ll need to re-evaluate the longer term charts and new mid-term patterns that emerge.
If we get the low in April as you anticipate then I would want confirmation that it has started a new leg up in May to take out 1308, then 1347, then 1382. I just don’t see that happening until later in the year.
Shad,
Thanks for the explanation. I do get why people think the bottom of metals is this fall. It really looks like the bottom is much closer than many think. One thing is certain, the next few weeks tells the story from a cycle and overall economic standpoint.
Absolutely. It will be fascinating and nerve-wracking to watch : – )
Have a good one!
Stewie,
-One of the best cyclical bulls in the miners happened in the mid 1990s when gold was in no man’s land.
-Gold is not in no man’s land right now.
Don’t let ficticious paper fool you, gold is doing very well in real terms.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$GNX&p=D&yr=2&mn=2&dy=11&id=p92106108943
Hello-O?
Is there a reason the above points don’t matter? What have I missed?
I’m with ya brother, and the above points do matter. In real terms gold is holding its own, and in most currencies on the planet gold is having a great run and doing its job to hedge inflation their local fiat currency. Many times, people have tunnel-vision when they only look at gold in relation to the US dollar.
It was also a great chart of the recent price of Gold.
You miss very little : – )
Thanks Shad, I just think that people who like the miners should focus less on the size of gold’s moves and more on the direction and character of its price action. I don’t believe that it has to do very much vs the dollar in order for good miners to do very well. Here’s gold priced in oil.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD:$WTIC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=11&id=p09397504571&a=401460858
ppl in reality we are in a deflationary world right now but somehow this deflation is being cancelled out by money printing and zirp.Free money is only available to the tbtf banks and giving that they are buying their own stocks(ceos are paid in stock options and dividends will add to the eps thus lowering the pe and making the stock more attractive) they will only speculate and invest in stock market.It is there where they want joe the sixpack(bagholder) to put his money not in gold stocks.
Good conversation guys. I was expecting to be told to go away lol yet i see few that are still bearish. I think by summer we will get the low but i would like it now so we can move on sooner. Time will show. I’m in synch with AVI and Gary and this guy. He’s been good on calls and TA. Check it out if u want http://thefinancialtap.com/
That was a good post, and I agree that the April rally will be a “suckers rally” and will correct down harder afterwards. He mentioned that Golds rise would be limited to right around 1200 though, and I would differ in that I see it getting up in the 1230s (which would be able his 1223 target). Otherwise, he laid out his case very effectively and there was some other interesting info on that financial tap website.
Thanks for posting it Stewie.
Sure thing but keep in mind that his post is 2 weeks old already and 1220 already has played out per his call and so did down move now. Question remains now if we get the move down to wash out like he’s expecting and like chartster is expecting. That is to be seen. Jordan expects down move in last 2 weeks of april http://thedailygold.com/ and there is avi too but he expects large rally to even 1300. I do not agree with that. I think up move has played out already IMHO and we’ll trade down now to washout or sideways move for few weeks. This isn’t tradeable in any way IMO as it can move any directions it wants now. Like i said NO MANS LAND NOW. I will wait for wash out or new bull leg and then retracement of that bull leg. I hardly doubt we’ll get that bull leg now so i expect washout.
ohhhh and i forgot about Jordan Byrne too. He’s expecting wash out too.
Yes. I usually check out Jordan’s weekly market update on Palisade radio and tend to agree with his analysis quite often. We was very accurate on the way up post 08-09 crash, and on the way down from 2011 highs to present. Jordan’s short to mid-term outlook is usually on target, and if he is wrong, he admits its and adjusts to the new pattern accordingly.
I just checked out Jordan’s post from the 31st and generally agreed with his 2 scenarios. If gold does get down and close below 1180-1175 then we’d be back down to test 1140 and 1130, and you and Chartster and don corleone would be correct that the lows in Gold are coming sooner rather than later.
However, I was happy to hear him say that he is leaning towards the other scenario where Gold bounces to 1200, but may also hit the Moving average trend-line at 1216. That seems reasonable, but again, if we do bounce starting next week into mid-April, then I see higher than 1216 or 1223 and see something right under 1240 in the high 1230’s as gold’s upside April target.
If we break down and close below 1175, then 1140 and 1130 are back on the menu.
We’ll see by next week which direction this markets go. Friday is a different day with the US markets closed for Easter, so I think the beginning of next week will tell the tale.
Good luck to all in their trading.
Shad i agree that 1223 may be hit within next few trading days but i expect this rally to peter out any moment now. Also we will be trading in thin markets over the holiday weekend and cartel like to hit gold when there thin volume. It may or may no happen but i would not be long now knowing that.
Yes, for the mid-term this is just a bounce and not the start of a big bullish impulse leg or anything. Sometime in April we are both in agreement that Gold and PMs will start heading down to begin their descent down to test the Nov low. I just think we’ll have a bit more of a bounce up to maybe 1236-1238 in April, before Gold heads south in a big way.
If the reversal down in Gold did happen right after the Easter holiday and get smacked down by the cartel, then you and Chartster and Don Corleone will be spot on. In a way I’d like to get it over with too, but am being patient for it to happen in about a month.
In Jordans post from the 31st he sees the HUI also going up to test the trend line, but doesn’t think that the bounce will last much longer (1-2 weeks) before heading south. That is exactly what I am expecting….basically a sucker’s rally into mid April, then the decline to test 1130.
If it goes down post Easter at the beginning of next week, I’ll be issuing a Golden Star to you Stewie !!
Glad you said that as i’m new to his site so i did not follow him for so long.
I started noticing Jordan’s coverage and presence at a lot of the mining conferences in 2010, 2011, and he’d get interviewed by diffent show. Then from then on I’d read an article by him on Kitco, or see him talk with different experts in the industry and tune in. Lately the Palisade radio show has had a lot of great interviews, so I just started watching his weekly market updates and get a lot out them.
What’s Don C website? I would like to check it out
BTW i listen to all jordan’s podcasts including once on pallaside too.
I like his new podcast format too. I follow lots of websites including crazy kwn but i follow very selected few and they must also be in synch too.
I don’t know that he has a website but he is a regular contributor here that seems to have a similar outlook. His comments are up above in the middle of this blog and are worth reviewing.
This is off topic but I just came across a comment I made and saved 26 months ago about the Dow. Al and others here thought the Dow was in a bubble at the time (this was before it exceeded its 2007 high) and I maintained that the market was just short term overbought. And said: “we could approach 15,000 this year (2013). I think we’ll see 16,000 or a bit more in 2014. This area is not only the point and figure target, but also the upper resistance of a big megaphone pattern. If we get through it, 19,000 is the target.”
———————–
It rings a bell now, but I had forgotten that I mentioned Dow 19,000. I don’t know if it can get there before a correction, but I was open to it when few, if any, here were.
FYI guys. H&S price target is $1052 if we do not break right side shoulder in days ahead.
1308-1140 = -168 + 1220 (right peak) = $1052 Gold price downside target.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u2/41gold.png
Hmm, a head and shoulders TOP at the end of a DOWNtrend? Could be, but I bet it’s just a shape. Whatever it is, it’s generally not a good idea to anticipate the completion/activation of a pattern.
Sounds good to me, Stewie.
Fascinating discussion tonight; I was really pulled in to the discussion. I read (and re-read) everyone’s opinions carefully and really studied charts. Very enjoyable and educational for me.
I guess we all have our own filters and pattern recognition bias. I’m having trouble accepting the H&S TOP (reversal) unless there is a very steep declining neckline.
I guess my eyes are more focused on possibility of the double-bottom reversal pattern. Especially with the 7 straight up days and this very surprising bounce off of 1180. I may be both lonely and wrong in my opinion, but I just don’t see the US$ 1130 level being tested. But that’s what you would expect a Novemberist to say, eh?
Funny Brian. Yes you and Matthew and possibly Glenfidish – the 79ers and Novemberists may be proven correct and we may not test 1130 again. If that were the case it would be much more bullish, but I just get this sinking feeling that we’ll be testing it in the next month or two. Who knows though, we’ll have to see what these crazy markets throw at us.
Matt bottom is your opinion. The cartel is painting this pattern. If they are able to activate with what i said if we do not break right side shoulder we would have target of $1052. Whether it happens or not it remains to be seen. If one thinks we’re about to wash out this patter would make sense especially if cartel painted it on purpose for alogs to activate. I’m a bull matt but i want that wash out. We’ll see soon.
Stewie, if there’s one item in this sector that can make a new low, it is gold. I think silver and the miners have finally seen their lows even if gold has not. Both peaked many months before gold in 2011 so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were to bottom many months before as well.
False breakdowns happen all the time. If the pattern you’re speaking of activates I wouldn’t count on price meeting the objective. Remember Warren Bevan last June? He’s a good technician that was tricked by such a false breakout and even said that he probably wouldn’t talking about gold for years since the breakout was so ominous. As is usually the case, many other technicians were also calling for lower lows. I was a buyer of shares and options when many were giving up and look what happened. The same thing happened in December, 2013. I think the situation is similar now. Nearly everyone is convinced that a final washout is still ahead.
My view is that we can have a VERY scary decline in the weeks ahead but that it will come from much higher levels for the miners.
Matt i will be on your side soon so you’re still my friend but COT structure needs to point to extreme pessimism for gold to bottom and that is not happening now. One may say it happened in dec 2014 and again in jan/feb but we have not made higher high therefore that’s not valid bottom. When COT and sentiment YET AGAIN will be extreme pessimism we will get final bottom and that my friend will need to be at lower level which 1050 would satisfy. BTW HUI and GDX and GDXJ wil l get annihilated if gold drops 200 points. It always does. Even if it’s temporarily only. This annihilation will be buy of this decade.
The gold COTs got a place where one has to be more bullish than bearish for now. I think we have extreme pessimism, or at least skepticism, currently. It’s kind of hard for a market to crash when everyone is expecting it and most are from what I can tell.
As soon as the charts turn friendlier to your view, I’ll mention it here, but right now, a big plunge looks highly unlikely.
GDXJ will see 26 before it sees 22.
Yes, still friends!
Good discussion Matthew and Stewie. Very interesting points to consider.
Very poetic Stewie. I liked that….painting the pattern.
Well do do Bird they do. lol
Stewie,
Your last sentence, ” this annihilation will be the buy of the decade ” is what I’ve been chomping at the bit for. And it is about to be here!
I thought that the mining stocks might not get hit as hard as the metal it’s self, but just look at the last three weeks of the fifty day moving average of GDXJ. That goose is about to get cooked!! Stick a fork in it!
Lets see three tagging up against one..Now how can stewie say the sentiment is bullish? There is more bearish then anything and with the arrival of jj we now have a bearish orgy lol..
Murk them boys hehehe…
Just playing stewie
Glen,
Setting technical opinion aside. I’m certainly a to the moon gold bug. I just think the wash must happen for us to move forward. This is my point. What we are following right now is IMO the best opportunity at the best time. People 7 years from now will be kicking their selves in the butts for not being in this space. We all will be happy for the moves that are coming because of such great opportunity.
On a side note. If the wash is as big as I think it is, many will get spooked out of the PM sector and totally mis the best time to be involved. And I really believe it’s coming soon.
I am anticipating a wash out in sentiment as well Chartster, but feel the Nov lows need to be tested to get this over with. I am not really a Gold Bull or a Gold Bear, by try to deal with the short / mid-term swing trading. I am also keenly interested in the related mining stocks because they can have such amazing upside.
I do believe in PMs as store of value in uncertain times with insane central bankers running around trying to control the supposedly free markets. (of course we know they are not trading freely or without manipulation). Longer term I would say I am bullish, but I am bullish on a number of commodities longer term. However, mid-term I am bearish on the PMs for the next 2 months, and want to get this wash out over with, but the market will do what it does and we’ll remain patient and see what plays out.
Good luck to you in your trading and investing.
TWIMC:
From:
goldstocktrades.com/blog/2015/04/01/rare-earth-junior-soars-on-deal-with-chinese/
”…Al Shefsky, President & CEO, Pele Mountain Resources discusses the company’s joint venture with a major Chinese rare earth player to develop processing facilities in Elliot Lake with Canada’s BNN. …”
Video on:
bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=582549
Thanks for the post LFP.
I still have my shares from pre fukashima.
If they can get the financing squared away I will give them another chance.
Until that time,as far as I’m concerned their just another hope stock with no money.
Google their financials.
@ John K
Hi John K
Ha ha, ”financials”, indeed! If they were offered a 3-month, 5-star cruise of the planet for 5¢, they couldn’t afford to get out of sight. 🙂
I’m not invested with GEM (& never was), so it’s not as if I’m recommending it as a hopeful ”100-Bagger of the Year.”
However, when Chinese money is about to get involved (and it will, if this flies), then there’s no harm in keeping a proverbial ”ear to the ground”.
*If* the deal flies, by no later than Sept 30 (a necessary condition, as stated in the present-standing memorandum – or all bets are off), the boys from Shanghai end up with 50.1% and the Canucks, 49.9% (i.e., the ”devil’s in the details”).
Cheers —LFP
Good post LFP. I have been a fan of Pele Mountain Resources for a while and like that Elliot Lake was the only prior REE processor in Canada and they have a good track record of Uranium production on their property as well. As a side note, they also have acquired all the land around Molycorp from a private family that owned the land over the last 2 years, and nobody seemed to even notice this. That lays the groundwork for either a takeover down the road, or JV with Molycorp (or whatever arises from the ashes of Molycorp if they go down the bankrupt spiral).
@ Shad
What if the Pekinese pirates bought out Molycorp also? :-O !!
They’re rarin’ for more rare earth acquisition and, rest assured, they’ve been scrutinizing the progression of the canadian economy’s tanking since before the Suncor situation happened.
They bide their time well.
Read Sun Tzu’s ”The Art of War” & transpose it from a military context to a financial one. (lots of free downloadable copies on the Web in PDF). I’m serious -only 64 pages.
—LFP
Yes LFP, I have Sun Tzu’s “The Art of War” and it is a classic strategy book.
I have no idea what the fate of Molycorp will be as they are financially a mess, missed all their guidance for years, and seem like they’r about to get delisted. Having said that, they are a huge operation in multiple countries and with multiple subsidiaries. When they bought Neo-Materials, they overpaid, and bought right before the pricing decline in REEs, but that was an awesome company and part of their magnet & specialty production division. They have the Sorbex water purifying division using their Cerium (which gives them a nice mark-up over the spot price of just the commodity).
It is hard to believe a company that huge is going to be worth $0 and it is the largest flagship REE miner & processor outside of China, but the debt and low prices are choking it to death. I imagine that do something drastic in the next few months, get bought out, or do the bankruptcy death spiral, and come out of it with all share-holder decimated. For the most part all share holders already are decimated. I lost a pretty penny back in 2012 and again in 2014, thinking they had their act together, but then threw in the towel on them.
As for Pele Mountain – obviously all firepower is on Elliot Lake, but I just thought it was interesting that they acquired the Simon Rare Earth property and mineral claims that are adjacent to the Molycorp Mountain Pass facility. I just looked on their website and Pele Mtn did that acquisition back in 2012. They don’t even list those properties on their website as even an exploration targets, but that may be because Molycorp is a wounded animal.
I still think Pele Mountain has what it takes to get production of REEs and Uranium mining going again, and there is a ton of local political and community support to get that facility up and running a provide some much needed jobs. Now that they have some financial backing from the Chinese, it is looking like they may fast track the project now, but they are only down to a 49% stake. 1/2 of something is better than 100% of nothing though.
Interesting post Shad. Some of you guys are great writers!
AXU:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=15&id=p24009101099&a=392075297
A close above .38 tomorrow will be bullish.
The economy is on fire….we are ON OUR WAY to “ESCAPE VELOCITY”!…right on!!..:)