We focus on the oil market
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
I am convinced that some ‘Greek event’ will be used as an excuse to do more QE globally.
At which point, I assume it will be off to the races for conventional stocks and, um, gold/silver will just tank, crash and burn.
Or is that a silly idea?
You are probably correct. However, I wonder if we are looking at the wrong reason for this mess – I’m thinking that the zero interest rate policy and suppression of pm prices is really to allow the Governments to float massive amounts of debt on the cheap. If gold/silver pricing was stable it would be a more attractive investment and that can’t really be allowed so you make the pm market crazy and push interest rates to zero to float the debt. The lunacy in the stock market is just a side show to keep the masses entertained.
I love that last sentence Mike:
“The lunacy in the stock market is just a side show to keep the masses entertained.”
I agree, and the financial institutions are borrowing at 0% and then shoveling it into the stock markets, and companies are borrowing at virtually nothing to buy back shares of their stocks, and the inflation confined to the general stock markets, while the remainder of the economic landscape is in a stagflationary to deflationary environment. Everyone points to the higher markets and pats themselves on the back that times are good and the “wealth effect” subdues to the average citizen who has no idea they are being robbed blind. What a circus!
Thanks!
The only thing I know for sure is that the House, Senate, Presidency and the Fed are all some form of Theater where what they say has little to do with what they do. I often call it Kabuki Theater but that seems unfair to an ancient and beautiful Japanese art form.
Maybe we can just call the government and Fed “Tragic Comedy”.
Bob UK :
The black swan event is always lurking.
I’ll say that at sometime fundamentals will matter again.
Things have gotten really distorted due to cheap money.
Now that the machines and algo’s are running the show one has to be mindfull of previous flash crashes.
Going back to the S&P put options, The last 8 trading sessions have seen an increase of 6.82% in the open interest on the September 2050 strike put option.
It will be interesting to watch the open interest on the Sept put option if the market can sustain a positive move.
Good post LPG, and I hadn’t heard that about the BOJ on the 30th.
I have posted regularly that I believe late April/ early May is seasonally a rough time for PMs. Add to that the poor Q1 earnings from multinationals, oil companies, mining companies, and financial institutions and that will be more pressure in about a month. Then the speculation will rage again about whether the Fed will raise rates in June or September. People will be getting skittish and fleeing commodities, other currencies, and even stocks to the perceived safety of the US dollar. If the Bank of Japan eases again on April 30th, then in anticipation of this, the Yen will fall and this will add fuel to the USD strength, as will falling commodity currencies like the Canadian Loonie, Australian Dollar. As for Europe, it is also screwed, and since 60% of the weight in the Dollar basket is in relation to the Euro, then this will also feed the fire.
This is my reasoning for the USD having a blow off top to 110 in May or June, and putting pressure on the PMs and all commodities. The dollar is king at present.
However, I expect that to be an intermediate top in the US Dollar not just a daily cycle top (May/June), and it will either be an intermediate or Major low in PMs – where Gold tests the 1130 lows and likely goes down to $1044, and where Oil gets to $38.
From this point I would expect a gradual reversal into the summer June/July/August, where the mid-tier miners and small producers have the biggest gains on rising commodity costs. As the dollar starts heading down, commodities head up, and the stock market finally starts its topping pattern at higher highs for the year , then I expect a 20% correction by around September.
why wouldnt it be the opposite…??
I believe my comment was posted right after Bob UK at 8:12— ‘the opposite’ of what he and LPG wrote…
Off Topic:
It’s official. Hillary is senile?
From Zerohedge…..
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/02/2015 – 10:49
MSNBC’s Ed Schultz who never saw a Democratic he did not like or a Republican who should not be executed, amazingly admitted in trying to defend Hillary that she is 67 years old and too old to know what she is doing. “There’s a lot of people in her demographic that just don’t want to be overwhelmed by that technology that are going to take the easier, simplest route to do something — I get that.” You cannot get around the fact that what she did was criminal for when all those emails were subpoenaed by Congress, she failed to produce them or inform Congress she had a secret personal email. That is outright OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE and anyone else would go to prison for 5 years. Then when they are discovered, she erases the files. Come on! Why are there three sets of laws – (1) for Democrats, (2) for Republicans, and (3) for the rest of us?
classy lady, Hillary
CFS, I doubt this guy would have been as forgiving if a forgetful Ronald Reagan had erased his e-mails!
Looks like a Maundy Thursday knife fight today at US$1200 gold 😉
This is not a prediction, just an expectation (or maybe pure hopefullness): I would really like to see gold stabilize in this 1180-1200 zone for next week. Several quick drops below 1180 (with snapbacks) would be good, too. Then another ramp up and more days of sideways movement within the 1200-1225 zone.
Is it just me? Or does the daily action on gold seem different after the 20March changes? Maybe there is actually more transparency and the likelihood of a huge, not-for-profit dump of paper gold will not happen anymore. One can dream, eh?
Good post CFS :
You are right on the money. I followed up on your post concerning emails and donations to the Clinton’s Foundation. The donor list will tell you all you need to know.
The level of corruption defended by the media never ceases to amaze me.
Great segment Cory & Chris! Thanks.
Chris get ready, this is the year Cubs win the World Series and compels Fed to raise interest rates 🙂 We’ll have to be patient and wait until October, right? Just don’t hold your breath either– Still long shots…
Funny Chips!
Shad, the first time I heard Chris say, “The Fed will raise interest rates when the Cubs win the World Series” I nearly fell out of my chair laughing! As a long-suffering Cubs fan born and raised on the north side of Chicago, I gotta remain hopeful and maintain a sense of humor. As an “Audit The Fed” fan, I’m much less of a comic.
Yes, I get a kick out of it when Chris says that as well. As for auditing the Fed…..not so funny, until you get the point where you just throw your hands to the air and say “whatever” and manage what you can control – our own actions.
Best to you sir!
Like I said yesterday, Chips, maybe Yellen will throw at the first pitch at Wrigley!
This is what chartster posted yesterday
Glen,
Setting technical opinion aside. I’m certainly a to the moon gold bug. I just think the wash must happen for us to move forward. This is my point. What we are following right now is IMO the best opportunity at the best time. People 7 years from now will be kicking their selves in the butts for not being in this space. We all will be happy for the moves that are coming because of such great opportunity.
On a side note. If the wash is as big as I think it is, many will get spooked out of the PM sector and totally mis the best time to be involved. And I really believe it’s coming soon.
I tend to agree with those statements from Chartster, and think the washout in sentiment is just a month or two away. However, first I think we’ll need a little counter-trend pop to get people a little more bullish in April and get it will be a fake-out rally into mid-April. Then the sentiment will fall from a higher level, but so will the prices the commodities and miners which will also be slightly higher before the turn.
I mentioned yesterday we’d have pressure in the PMs today and then the US markets are closed tomorrow and we have a 3 day weekend. Next week could start a leg up in PMs that head towards the mid to high 1230’s but the middle of April.
What if your dead wrong Chartster?
Have you thought about being wrong for one second or are you closed minded?
If your scenario does not play out you would have lost opportunity of lifetime and also scared so many away from the trade.
My point is your relying heavily on charts like 90% os retail traders do. You must and hope that fundamentals break down further for your scenario to play out. Your saying that for it to reach your targets or majority views in here there must come a breakdown of the loonie below its .77 low as well as immediate explosion higher in us dollar. This needs to happen with tomorrows news and bank of canada release in week of april 13.
That is also a valid point Glenfidish, and anyone can be dead wrong and likely will be dead wrong in 40% of their decisions, but if they are right 60% of the time then they’re doing alright.
As for your statement about the washout needing to happen tomorrow or on the Bank of Canada on April 13th….. I didn’t understand that part??
I thought LPGs post about the Bank of Japan announcing they’ll ease on April 30th was also very relavent to a weakness that will hit the Yen, and increase in the USD towards the end of the month, which would assist the dollar in surging higher in May. I also strongly believe we’ll see all kinds of fears of the Fed announcing increasing the interest rates at the June or Sept meeting which will strengthen the dollar and pressure PMs.
Now could Gold just shoot way up in late April & May. Absolutely. These are wild and contrived markets that seem to lack any logic pegging to normal economic indicators….. so anything can happen. Any thing is possible, but the question is what is most probable?
It is unlikely that anyone will miss the opportunity of a lifetime by waiting one month or missing a $50-$100 move in Gold in either direction. That is small potatoes in the overall longer term pattern.
It is unlikely anything will much will happen tomorrow with the markets closed on Good Friday, and it is more likely that PMs will rise the next 2 weeks, more so than crashing, so I am not in agreement with Chartsters timing for the washout, but am in agreement with the pattern he expects to play out.
Scared away from a trade? Does anybody here really trade according to what anyone else writes? I know I am not influenced although I like to read the posts because there are often good ideas and leads to follow up.
Bird,
That is not my point. You, me and others don’t trade according to what others say but many followers and viewers come here and get advice. Im speaking more on credibility/performance/track record. Chartsters has been very poor and no harm intended but his forecast is terrible. I question peoples motives on why they say things. For the record your one who has never come out and said a trade forex or anything? You speak out but never make calls “meaning chips on table”. I guess you feel the need not to?
Correct. My chips are mine so I consider that personal. I’m not in a game with anyone else here anyway. Nobody is offended by that most of the time. Do you recall back when gold was rising though? And at that time there was a lot of people bragging about their multi-baggers and great stock choices etc etc…. I thought it was counterproductive because it just led to a lot of chest pounding ego trips between totally anonymous people. Some really smart guys would be totally discredited just for making a bad trade as if that signified how bright they were. It was ridiculous. Everyone makes a bad trade sometimes…no exceptions. So I don’t participate at that level. It turns childish too fast.
Sometimes you get caught up in the game and you are no different. Yes i made comments towards sidelines more so for the reasons when I got in many kept insisting down. So it ticked me off a bit. Anyone else you reckon with a over explosive attitude :)? You are absolutely correct it is not nice to pump fist or vice versa when one is in a trade and continously pump its going to the 250 dollar level.
It is ok to rejoice God says after winnings!
cheers
For the record you have rejoiced many a times when gold got slammed from 1200 level and kept pushing the botton/envelope at our beloved matthew. Easy to take cheap shots when something goes south so I urge you to do same thing as you profess to me.
On top of all that Glen, his various assumptions are inaccurate more often than not.
How about this assumption. See the last chart in the series linked below. You tell me…was that a head and shoulders pattern at the end of a decline (and that did in fact break down like most H&S patterns do) or was it just a…ah…ummmm….a…… “shape”?
The Economy is Imploding at a 2008-Pace… and Investors Are Record BULLISH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-02/economy-imploding-2008-pace%E2%80%A6-and-investors-are-record-bullish
—————–
By the way, that post of yours was uncalled for. It is also totally unsubstantiated. What’s funny is that Glen just accuse me of taking cheap shots and then you do exactly what he is talking about. Perhaps you would care to comment on my posts about interest rates and inflation instead? You can find those on Doc’s Wednesday thread.
I hate to tell you this Birdman, but unless the pattern you’re seeing activates AND delivers the measured target price, then it will have been just a shape. Shapes on charts that look like legitimate patterns are not unusual.
As for your inflation and interest rates talk, I think it’s funny that you now accept many facts that you used to fight with me about two years ago. And it’s not just those subjects. You used to attack me and others for saying things that you now appear to agree with. I just haven’t pointed them out.
You appear to have learned a few things in your time here.
Try to keep to the subject. This is not about me. I am happy if you have something to add otherwise.
I will just add, Matthew, that my commentary on interest rates and inflation including the charts I use to support my ideas are forward looking and predictive. They are not actually facts at this time but rather a collection of observations that indicate a trend I believe will evolve. You and I have NEVER discussed any of those things before.
But are you saying you agree with all of it? That is interesting because I didn’t see you post on Doc’s thread yet. Nor did you remark on the my theory of the Shanghai or the note that we had inside reversals in metals.
Nobody did. Shall I just assume you are all in agreement? Not much of a discussion though. I am interested in what others here think.
I just reviewed my posts, Matthew. There is literally nothing in any of them that we have ever debated before so it strikes me as bizarre you would try to take credit for my work by suggesting you knew all along. Too freaking funny.
You ego is way over the top, man. Back to sniffing the tail for you!
1) You sarcastically said “…or was it just a…ah…ummmm….a…… “shape”?”
So I am “keeping to the subject.”
2) On inflation, interest rates and other subjects, I am talking about my past observations and have no idea what your recent comments were.
3) Yes, you will assume. You always have.
Look at the chart I posted. It is not an assumption. It is a fact that a H&S formed and then broke down at the base of a long decline. You should not limit your technical viewpoint to the extent you cannot see what is obvious.
That is called a bias based on preconceived notions and will limit your ability to think clearly when you encounter patterns that are slightly different yet potentially meaningful.
In my case I have already acknowledged that this particular H&S on gold is problematic however I have not ruled out that it could still be significant. So this is a watch and see until we get more confirmation is all. What I have done is point out a possible break down is coming.
And my record is pretty good thus far Matthew (as you know). I have called virtually every major decline in metals before they happened all the way down to where we are now. Some of those declines were called both by price and time which was the case for the recent fall to 1200 from the 1300 level.
I don’t think I can recollect you doing that even once! Don’t forget, price swings two directions, it is not all just up and lots of bull calls as your many posts seem to suggest.
My point here is I think you should keep an open mind. That’s all.
I just want to add one more comment…..I am not all that interested in arguing with you anymore. It never goes anywhere and it is not productive. Despite your misgivings about my remarks I can tell you that some of your charts have been helpful. So that’s credit for you. I am just worn down by the daily pissing contests.
Wow,
This is a revelation! The first time in a long time s friendly and not over the top discussion. Leave it at that boys. Brains like yours working together is far better. What do you both think of today’s fed numbers? Longer term bullish or negative for dollar? This is what we should all be focused on. 2 of three came out ok in favor of dollar. The job number was horrible. I will need to sit down and figure out what it means longer term.
Glen, if there is no wash from here…when would you get in…?
From a big picture perspective, what’s wrong with now? GDXJ is down 85% from its high even though it’s up 16% (at the moment) from its all-time low.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=4&mn=7&dy=0&id=p57569908930&a=385275187
That’s a great point. If someone doesn’t have any position in metals or miners at all, then now is a fine time to take a position or start averaging into positions over the next few months. You don’t have to go all in, but can used a tiered approach and do your first tier anytime.
I wouldn’t call the gold and silver space or the related miners overbought if you pull up a 5 year chart : – )
+1 Shad.
Best to you,
LPG
Thanks buddy.
Long term=IN from November lows and previous to that.
One of my holdings is Iamgold. I have shared with all. The others I keep to my chest 🙂
Short term trading=Sidelines! Played around twice with it and both times closed out positions with a neutral. The volatility is disgusting. Matt and many others know where I stand as I’ve been very vocal with it.
Im not a pessimist or optimist, just a realist and I think some here are throwing out ridiculous numbers without merit and more so without putting the chips on the table like me and matt do on a daily. There are few others in here like LPG,shad,doc,brian,peter etc who put the chips on the table. I respect there calls much more then people on a blog screaming for lower prices and not backing it up with there mouth. That is what upsets me and pisses me off.
Sorry for rant..
Hope this helps
+1 😮
I agree my friend. and usually discuss my trades (both wins and losses openly), and I trade about 1-3 times per day on a rotating list of about 30-50 primary companies that I trade spread across different commodities and energy stocks and ETFS.
I probably have too many chips on the table sometimes, but they’re in the mix for sure. : – )
As long as those chips don’t have trans fats, you’ll be fine! 😉
Funny. There may have been a few trans fats in those chips……. uh oh!
lol Matthew !
Nice one. 🙂
Best to you,
LPG
You thought that was funny?
You have to ask? I thought LPG’s response was quite clear and pithy.
Matthew,
Re: you 1:10pm comment.
Lol – again.
or… bringing back memories… : “+1”
🙂
Best to you and to all.
LPG
Maybe you can get a gig at Comedy Central.
Shad,
Thanks for sharing that. As recent as two weeks ago You,Matt,Lpg went in and remain long from my understanding. I know Matt trimmed some and im sure LPG king of trimming would have done the same. Your position currently im not sure but I know you got in close to those lows. So if this is the case, the three of you have put yourself in a much better position then if one entered now. My reason to be out. I did not catch that bottom of that fib. It was the perfect setup and it passed me. I will stay out until I see a better setup. Your risk or the the three of you has been minimized within the retracements.
Best of luck Shad!
Yes. When the dollar did the double top on the 11th & 13th, I took some positions on Friday the 13th because I like tempt fate : – ) Then I took other positions on the 16th & 17th St. Patrick’s day for the luck of the Irish to send Friday the 13th a message : – )
The stocks I acquired for the 2 week bounce I anticipated were:
Sandstorm gold (SAND), Great Panther Silver (GPL), Platinum Group Metals (PLG), Stillwater Mining (SWC), Hecla Mining (HL), Endeavour Silver (EXK), and the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
I trimmed or sold many of the positions in them on the 23rd-25th. I still have some positions and hold about 40 companies in my portfolio in various other equities, and still have about a dozen Jr. Miners that l think make great takeout targets for a major (like Rye Patch, Exeter, Tower Hill Mines, Scorpio Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, North American Palladium, Silvercrest mines, Romarco Minerals, Crocodile Gold, Golden Queen, Inca One Gold corp, Torex Gold, and Jaguar Mining).
I am always watching about 2 dozen other companies in the Jr space, but really tend to trade (JNUG) and (JDST) when I sense a macro change.
I also really like a lot of the mid-tiers as well and may be adding to positions in Fortuna Silver, Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, Yamana, Sierra Metals, Alexco, and I like the allocation inside the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) for majors and midi-tiers.
BTW – Since there is a whole discussion breaking out above and below about chest pounding, I wanted to make it clear that this was not my intent for sharing the companies above. I merely wanted to highlight some companies I hold or may take positions in because others may not be familiar with them or may have valuable information about them they’d like to share.
To me the #1 biggest thing I get from this blog (other that comic relief) is other peoples stock recommendations, timing on buying/Selling ETFs, and which companies that people throw out in conversation. If Al & Cory, Doc, Rick Ackerman, Gary Savage, Chris Temple, Matthew, LPG, Glenfidish, Brian, Dan Calvary, Birdman, BB, Silverbug Dave, Charster, Peter R, Stewie, Don Corleone, or anyone else thows out a company, and ETF, or an idea, then I follow up with my own DD, and usually am surprised and want to know more. There is no way to follow thousands of companies, so I like when someone steps out and highlights something.
Also if J….the Long…OOTB, Heavy Hitter, CFS, Irish Tony, or Dick Tracy have anything to say politically or on the macro level, I try to take a moment and see what they have to say. I don’t agree with anyone every time, but think we have a good community here, and always think sharing great ideas makes us all more knowledgeable and well-informed.
Shad……well said…..j
Thanks man.
NO problem..always glad to recognize a contributor……..j
Great double post shad.. I very much agree.
Stay away from these chips!
https://sp.yimg.com/ib/th?id=HN.607994050523107044&pid=15.1&P=0
Funny Matthew! Yes, those aren’t the chips I want in my life : – )
Nooo 😮
Bringing back memories Matthew !
Sorry Glen, but nobody here is obligated to discuss their trades so don’t waste energy being pissed off. It’s probably just as well that most here keep that part of their life private which is where it belongs. If you want to get into pissing contests about how great a trade you pulled and how much money you made (or lost) then there are plenty of sites for that. Of course you will quickly find out that most of the contributors that post never seem to lose! They just win-win-win because that’s the name of the pissing game.
Pretty much a waste of your time. But hey, if you are that competitive then knock yourself out. Put up the time, date and price you got in and when it happens and report back on the sale.
Nobody will really care, I can assure you.
Your missing my point Bird. If your going to blow smoke then back it up is what im saying with a track record.
Enough said I have to go back to work. Im done.
Who was blowing smoke?
Not you never mind..
I vented im done.
venting=I said my piece and people can ignore if they wish.
No problem Glen. Venting is OK. I just don’t know why it would bother you if people don’t list trades. A few people do but that’s their prerogative. Mostly it doesn’t matter…. at least in my opinion. It’s just money and we won’t take it with us when we go. Personally I appreciate the insights that most of the guys bring. Something new to learn every day.
TWEETY ALWAYS HAS A WAY WITH WORDS…….hang in there glenfidish, welcome to the crowd.
Jerry, that’s about 50 irritating posts from you in the last few days directed at me for no reason at all. If you are nursing injured pride could you take it up with a psychiatrist instead of bothering me constantly?
I hope you know what you are doing is classic troll behavior. Why don’t you knock it off.
heck tweety…….that is not true…….
Post all 50 if you can find them
Make that 52.
You can not take it when someone catches you bullying someone……
Tweety vs monkey…..
IF you want to DEBATE…….Let’s you and I go back together and post on
MAR 27, AND LEAVE THIS POST in quite.
55 and counting. Don’t you have an appointment or something? Maybe your toast is burning in the kitchen. Go check it out.
ALL BLOW AND NO SHOW………
Glenfidish,
Hope all’s well.
First of all, if I can make a preliminary comment: there will ALWAYS be those who know BETTER ALL THE TIME. Whether it’s at a party, at a reception, at work, on a website, or even some family members… Personally, I try to take it easy when I hear/read them. Taking it easy = a proxy for ignoring, but not 100% ignoring as there might sometimes be things that can be learnt from those people.
The point is: why wasting energy and nerves on people who don’t get your respect? IMHO, although it’s easier said than done, I would opine it is more valuable to focus time/energy on what is worth respect.
This preliminary comment aside, just a few words on the PM space.
I’ve just looked at 13 stocks at random within those that I own (ok, there’s one that I don’t on but by EOD today, I will own it again).
Since the June 2013 lows (1180), most stocks except 1 are up. So with gold almost at the same level as June 2013, 12 stocks are nevertheless up.
Looking at those 12 that are up, a good bunch are up more than 100% (one is up 300%), while the others are up about 50%, and one is about flattish.
What this suggests to me is that IF gold moves to multi-year lows, these stocks will probably suffer too… BUT over the next 2-3 yrs, I would expect them to perform quite well in a >$1200 gold environment (IF this was to be the average price of gold over the next 2-3 yrs). So even in a tough environment for gold as over the past few quarters, some stocks still perform very very well. That’s why I highlight often it is necessary to buy QUALITY ASSETS and have a plan, and a plan after the plan (the “what if” my 1st plan doesn’t work out).
That means: what am I gonna do if things go down when I expect a move up? and what am I gonna do if things move up when I expect a move down?
I try to remain adamant that one of the only things that I know, is that I know little. V-E-R-Y little. So I keep asking myself questions along the lines of: “what if I am wrong”, “what if what I take for granted is not for granted”.
Keeping that in mind, my only salvation is in reducing risk(s). And I try to reduce risk by buying/adding positions when the price of stocks that I like (fundamentally) is going down, and try to force myself to sell/reduce when I deem a stock as overbought. I run numbers on companies, and I try to get help from charts. Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat. Rinse, repeat.
Beyond that, those who know the future etc… good for them.
To those who don’t have a plan, good luck to them.
To those who don’t have a plan after their plan (“what if the first plan doesn’t work out as….planned”), good luck to them x2.
To those who buy when things go up and sell when things go down, good good good luck in investing – and maybe “thank you” given that depending on which stock we are talking, I might be on the other side of the trade :-).
And finally, to those who know better, always, no worries: I am chilled. 😉
Much love to you Glenfidish, and GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG,
Great summary as always. Most of us in here know your trading knowledge and expertise on the matter. Nice to share with all because sharing is caring :)..
Good luck is right as I need it in my trading portfolio lol.
Luck has been good with your strategy on the longer term with good companies.
Glenfidish,
I tend to believe luck is mean reverting… so hang in there !
Meanwhile, keep in mind that the more one reduces risk, the less luck one “requires” 😉
Best to you,
LPG
Very good point LPG!
LPG – Very good thoughts as usual !
Most of my activities are swing trades for (1 day – 2 weeks), so I try to have an entry plan and an exit plan before I hit the buy button, and will average into a position using a 1-3 tier system, but don’t throw money into a black hole if something is nose-diving. When things seem to be getting out-sized I trim or sell, and then buy when people pound down a good company beyond the sector averages.
Good luck to you sir, and it is always good to hear your positive attitude LPG.
Cheers Shad.
All the best to you as well and thank you for your valuable contribution.
LPG
that was my point Matthew– thanks as usual.
Glenn,,, you just called for a wash… now you state you dont like people calling for lower lows… which is it??!!
Gisty refresh my memory?
And please define wash? Did I use the word wash?merk?crash?
There is such things as corrections and I’ve been vocal about it and have told matthew about it as well. Im in the camp that see’s a correction coming. Im not in the camp that see’s the great depression around the corner and 250 gold or even 800 gold in two months. If im proven wrong then I will own up. Correction meaning I see a “Possibility” of a breakdown if tomorrows average hourly wage in the u.s is higher then expected or even the same. You couple that with bank of canada release on week of april 13th on rate hike or deduction and then i will have a longer term fundamental analysis.
LPG for the record is ahead of the game with bank of japan wanting to ease more. That would be bullish for dollar longer term. So as of now we have to see and wait. They all correlate.
Glenfidish,
I am not sure I am “ahead of the game” re: BOJ.
What I did is simply to “highlight” a Reuters article I came across (it was in Casey Research / Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Daily Dispatch today – giving credit where it’s due) and put some comments around it.
Also, FWIW, what I did, and that I didn’t mention in my initial post, is that I put a reminder in my calendar for 3 & 2 days before the event itself to start to pay close attention to price action by that time and where some of my stocks are – because I assume (rightly or wrongly) the “big boys” might position themselves in a certain way ahead of the event.
Best to all, and GL investing/trading.
LPG
What are you expecting position-wise, LPG?
Hello Birdman,
Hope all’s well.
To answer your question, I’d first re-direct you to 2 of my previous posts in this page:
1) my initial comment (up top):
“If past if prologue and assuming they ease more, I would expect some serious weakness around April 30 for gold/silver”.
2) what I mentioned at 12:51pm:
“I put a reminder […] 3 & 2 days before the event […] to pay close attention to price action by that time”.
So I’m currently OPEN-MINDED re: this event. In simple words, I HAVE NO CLUE what the position of the big boys will be…
BUT given that I am mindful of gold’s price behavior in previous instances, I will start to pay close attention to price action a few days ahead and also pay attention to where some of my stocks are.
Finally, I will pay close attention to the COT report at the end of the week prior the BOJ meeting: it might provide some interesting clues re: where things might be going in the next following days. The more extreme the positioning, the better it is for the clues, IMHO.
Best to you,
LPG
OK, thanks LPG. Now I see what you meant. It’s the end of the day over here so I might be getting a little tired. Actually it’s the end of the day over on your side too since I figure you are just north of here and probably on the same time zone. You have a lot of energy yet it seems. Cheers.
It’s all good Birdman.
Have a good night if you’re off to bed soon.
Best to you,
LPG
Yup, I’m beat. So its off to bed for me. See you tomorrow. Another day in a world spinning madly out of control. Al Shebab have lost their marbles over here. TV is non-stop same story all night. Totally gruesome. Where is the humanity anymore?
Good plan LPG. My thoughts are the Yen will drop and the USD will rise a few days before in anticipation of their new round of easing. I thought it was relevant because it could be a contributing force that may put some pressure on PMs at that time, especially if that spikes the dollar.
Lpg
Credit is given to the ones who starting putting pieces of the puzzle before hand. Very important when trading. You reminding us tells me your doing your dudilegence but heck Who am I :).
Glen
Glenfidish,
I appreciate the kind words, but I think you are giving me more credit than deserved. Especially, on this one, I don’t think it’s a matter of due diligence.
Please allow me just elaborate a little touch, in order not to be misunderstood.
I initially came across this article headline before the market opened today.
What caught my attention was the fact that some people are calling for MORE easing from the BOJ: this triggered the “alarm” in my mind.
Given what occurred in the past to PM prices in these instances, then my reaction was: “I have to be on my toes for the few days before the event”.
So, IMHO, in this instance, it is more about reading something, and relating it to past experiences to try to get clues of what might lie ahead.
If anything, the only “due diligence” is maybe that I skimmed through Ed Steer’s Daily Gold & Silver dispatch, something I do on a daily basis (save Monday) before the market opens – and when I see headlines matching my interest, I check the whole article.
Hope this help.
Again, thanks for your kind words, but I think credit was not deserved.
Best to you,
LPG
I’d call that being well informed LPG…..and now we all are. It is just one ingredient in a central banking stew of bad decisions, but something to be mindful of, as the currencies are pushing around the other market sectors at present.
Thanks for posting the article as we’ve had several conversations around it today.
Deflation is gonna be the reset that the world has been longing for since the first qe and I am on the records.I have been saying this way before the the dx climbed to the current level.When dx hits the 120 mark gold will be way below 1000.Mark my words.Last but not least I trade etfs and thus you can judge by yourself what etfs are on my radar.I dont marry any position and I could be bullish as much as bearish.I use stop losses and I dont let emotions ruin my judgment.Besides that I use trail stops all the time.I try to play it safe as much as possible and money managment is my no 1 priority.I have never gone all in even when all the indicators were telling me to do so.In trading no 1 key for success is patience and if I see that the risk /reward is too high I step back and wait for another opportunity.Having said that I back my analysis with technical and fundamental data but mainly technical.Those that base their decisions on fundamental data are prone to go wrong because many times news would have already been priced in.Charting is the best tool that I have found and charts never lie.
I agree with that Don. Charting is essential. I don’t know how anyone can trade by ignoring technicals. By the way….would you be surprised If I told you inflation is probably going to start breaking out in 2016? Not good inflation either. Sorry, its never that easy.
I would birdman because todate USD is still counted as a safe haven currency ,the same as the jpy and the chf.For many it is strange I know but it is what it is and nobody can deny that.The moment that the us debt is downgraded the usd will start loosing its status as reserve currency and inflation will kick in giving that everything listed on the stock exchange from cattles,hogs to pms is listed and traded in usd.Usd is loosing its reserve status little by little.Infact more countries are keeping less usd in their reserves then before.However it is still too early to say that the usd is doomed.The usd is the prettiest pig in the barn right now and it will remain so because its only contestant i.e. the euro is in dire straits right now and the worst is yet to come.
I disagree. Fundamentals always win in the end “If” you listen to news and I mean major news from the big central banks. That is and will always be my 50% part of the trade. In essence half of the trade. The rest you talk about makes up the other half. 25%risk management and 25% Technicals/techniques you apply.
If your going solo and looking at a chart as technicals, your going to end up in circles and losed more often then none. My biggest money has been based on fundamentals.
The issue many are having is the fundamentals changed IMO in 2011 with fed language and easing. That was the green light to get out of metals/miners..
If and when the fed decides to launch another round of qe or boj decides no more stimulus, then I will believe the fundamentals for gold are back on the table.
I share many of your thoughts but will always place fundamentals in front.
That’s cool. Whatever works best is my motto. I have my cheap-ass spreadsheet where I plug in the data and try to work out the details and probabilities. Its a damned Rubic’s cube of variables out there. I lean on history as my guide and charts are the best way for me to keep balance. So far so good but its not a supercomputer that guys like Armstrong have access too. My next best alternative is to network with all the other brain power here and between the lot of us I think we have a collective mind of great capabilities anyway.
We can agree to disagree glen.No problem for me.I am an open minded person.However,with all due respect glen but not everyone that uses technicals use them well.Like any other trade there are those who make the best out of it and those who lack.The same you can say on how people interpret the fundamentals.Having said that nobody is infallible and if your net right (60/40)then you are profitable.
Don and Bird,
Great discussion and there is no doubt there are great minds in here! Im yet to find another forum and quite frankly don’t have the time anymore. As some of you might have noticed I post less often due to market volatility and I need to stay in front of news. I try my best. Don no disrespect taken! You make very valid points with how people read charts and how they interpret. The hardest thing for me when it came to fundamentals was understanding the news. Believe it or not the fed actually puts the answers in front of us. To many think outside the hat.
cheers don..
Good discussion up above guys and Don Corleone, Birdman, and Glenfidish all made solid points. This is the kind of information that I wish I had years ago when I first started investing, and some people pay thousands of dollars at seminars just to learn the information that is thrown out here on a daily basis by all our contributors.
Everyone made some solid points, and for me I also balance Technical Analysis & Sentiment Indicators with Fundamental drivers.
For Technical Analysis & Sentiment Indicators – I don’t have just one system, and don’t think the world or maketplace can be viewed through just one lens. I consider 50, 200, and 400 day moving averages, Fibonacci levels and Elliot Wave junkies, Trendlines drawn from peak to peak / trough to through, chart patterns (ie cup & handle, head & shoulders, flag pennant, etc…), Japanese candlesticks, option open interest levels, MACD, RSI levels, Slow & Fast Stochastic, Bollinger Bands, etc….. I just look for overlap where 2-4 indicators are all pointing at the same direction.
* Honestly, my biggest success always comes from looking at the last major peak or bottom as resistance or support (especially when there are multiple peaks or troughs that all fall along a certain altitude.) If there are 2 peaks and 3 troughs that all fall along a certain price level, then I feel very confident that there will be enough congestion there to be either support or resistence (depending on the direction).
I never ceases to amaze me that when I use this simple little method for a quick snapshot analysis, that more times than not a Fib retracement, or bollinger band, or trendline, or moving average will be almost at the exact same place. It doesn’t always work, but nothing does. Just thought I’d throw in my 2 cents in the great discussion you guys were having. Thanks guys.
Fundament Analysis is also key, so I consider news triggers, macro drivers, sector or space drivers, supply/demand, new industries/phased out industries, regional plays, prior success of a management team, prior success in area or prior mine, makeup of geology vs likelihood of success being able to extract said commodity, grade, financials & balance sheet, share allocation, PE, EPS, etc…
Yes. When the dollar did the double top on the 11th & 13th, I took some positions on Friday the 13th because I like tempt fate : – ) Then I took other positions on the 16th & 17th St. Patrick’s day for the luck of the Irish to send Friday the 13th a message : – )
The stocks I acquired for the 2 week bounce I anticipated were:
Sandstorm gold (SAND), Great Panther Silver (GPL), Platinum Group Metals (PLG), Stillwater Mining (SWC), Hecla Mining (HL), Endeavour Silver (EXK), and the Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM).
I trimmed or sold many of the positions in them on the 23rd-25th. I still have some positions and hold about 40 companies in my portfolio in various other equities, and still have about a dozen Jr. Miners that l think make great takeout targets for a major (like Rye Patch, Exeter, Tower Hill Mines, Scorpio Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, North American Palladium, Silvercrest mines, Romarco Minerals, Crocodile Gold, Golden Queen, Inca One Gold corp, Torex Gold, and Jaguar Mining).
I am always watching about 2 dozen other companies in the Jr space, but really tend to trade (JNUG) and (JDST) when I sense a macro change.
I also really like a lot of the mid-tiers as well and may be adding to positions in Fortuna Silver, Argonaut Gold, McEwen Mining, Yamana, Sierra Metals, Alexco, and I like the allocation inside the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) for majors and midi-tiers.
Sorry, the post above was intended to go under Glenfidish’s 10:56am statement.
I am no expert on newspaper stocks. But i bought gannett GCI 5 weeks ago and just sold on limit order and made a nice 6% profit. Stock will soon split into 2 companys , so i may not rebuy. The broadcast division was the attractive part. Old man gannett [grumpy repub] is long dead. his grand kids may allow the print part to be less right wing, which will be good for paper sales. S
Re: Due Diligence etc… there was an article on March 29 on Zerohedge re: Cos w. negative wking capital.
There’s a link to an Excel file within the article, for those interested:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-29/miner-problem-2-billion-negative-working-capital
Best to all,
LPG
A friend sent me this graceland gold comment from Tuesday after gold rallied 20 bucks or so on Wednesday…….talk about a day too late !!!
1. On that interesting note, please click here now: http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/15mar/2015mar31cot1.png That’s a snapshot of the latest COT report. Incredibly, retail investor short positions on the COMEX, are now larger than their long positions!
2. At the same time, savvy commercial traders (aka the “banksters”) are carrying a very modest net short position of less than 75,000 contracts (shorts minus longs).
3. The average retail investor is highly leveraged, and can only withstand perhaps twenty dollars an ounce of price movement against their position before they get a margin call. Clearly, the gold market window is open, for a violent short covering rally!
Biggus,
Hope all is well with you. Im more concerned about the increase in smart money, At over 113,000 contracts short the non commercial “banks/hedge funds” know something I don’t. Can this number increase? Yes but odds are they will cover at lower prices. So yes be careful and we “may” just get a correction that some in here are looking for. Personally correction or not I really want to end this bear. I believe it ends when equities start to crash at some point.
Glen
I have to disagree, Glen. The commercial category is the smart money here. Bet with the commercials and against the rest.
I agree with Clive Maund’s recent take on the COTs:
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68
Does anyone have a long term chart of commercials/non-commercials and speculators for gold in 2014?
For example Matt with the canadian dollar, commercials were dead wrong from what I see on the chart. In 2008/2009 The start of the big run we had in gold/silver/miners, the non commercials were at record low short positions. Below 21,000 contracts. They are currently at 113,000 contracts short. I can see a rally I just don’t see the beginning of the bull and end of bear here. I may be wrong and im open minded.
I gotta run..
Glen, look at the positioning before the slide into late summer and beyond. Only the commercials had it right. The large specs were just as wrong as the small specs.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/sites/default/files/maund120314-10a.jpg
Glen,
In response to your post earlier. I’m going to clearly be right.
Metals Down, Hard Core!
Hey, and if I’m wrong? No harm no foul.. We just get to see a full page report from LPG of why I was wrong. Lol
I wonder if we get the full page report of why LPG was wrong..?
Doubt it
“If” you’re wrong, Chartster? I think you mean if you *continue to be* wrong. I’m not trying to be rude, just factual. You’ve been wrong since last fall and were wrong last weekend when you said: “The PM sector broke a key support in early march, went down, and then back tested to the now resistance level Thursday. It bounced and went down yesterday. And will pick up momentum downward next week.”
———–
Downward momentum did not pick up and gold now has two daily closes above the 55 day ema. To be fair, it is still “backtesting” the downside breakout resistance but I think it will be overcome next week since the charts/technicals remain more positive than negative.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p36716127861&a=391003355&listNum=1
Charts/technicals remains more positive than negative?
Uh hu, ok
Shorter term charts do, and that’s where a move must begin (hourly-daily-weekly, etc; not weekly-daily-hourly).
Matthew,
I was wrong in oct/ nov. ( wrong on the cycle ) 20th time admitted.
I’m not wrong about metals breaking a jet support and that same rail turning into a key resistance. Metals will fall next week and continue until late this month.
I really don’t get why you men don’t want to see the wash? I mean it is actually investment 101- but low sell high. ( just don’t get it )
Key support*
I don’t get why you don’t get that you don’t get it. 😐
Do you look at strength indicators? Sentiment? COT reports?
This is all about making money and limiting risk while we do it. If you’re so certain about your wash, why wouldn’t you bet on it and make easy money? I don’t get THAT, either.
Heh heh, ok
I typically don’t like to short, unless sure. I will do that early next week if I’m sure.
In all reality I should have done some puts later today.
I never call anyone out for being wrong when they are. I could have done that to you today. My context is not the past, it’s what’s going to happen in the future, which is my discussion. Which is what we are all wanting to know.
I do respect your knowledge and prowess.
My point was that you claim to be sure; so why not short it?
I’m not sure what you could have called me out for today that’s similar to your big and certain calls for a huge move down to $500 gold. Did I say that something was going to happen today that didn’t? I probably thought that gold might continue higher today, but it didn’t exactly fall apart.
I’ve been bullish all week and remain bullish. Nothing happened to change that and my miners finished higher today even though gdxj did not. Predictions are a sideshow in my opinion because I don’t need to know how high or low something is going when I take or exit a position.
Good luck to both of us. Cheers.
Oh that’s right, LPG never made a call.
Opps, never mind
Chartster, I love you & am blowing you a big k-i-s-s.
Mwaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh
LPG
HOW TO BEAT INTERNET TROLLS………….SAT.APR 4 zerohedge.
Re-posting what I posted under one of yday’s interviews:
If past if prologue and assuming they ease more, I would expect some serious weakness around April 30 for gold/silver:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-japan-economy-boj-idUSKBN0MS36S20150401
GL to all investing/trading
LPG