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Thoughts on the Federal Open Mouth Committee, and fairly directionless markets

Big Al
April 7, 2015

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121 Comments
    Apr 07, 2015 07:05 AM

    I agree in the direction-less general markets.

    As for PMs – they should have a nice pop later this week and next week into Mid-April. I am not as bullish on PMs for the end of April going into May.

      Apr 07, 2015 07:08 AM

      Chris Temple – What are your thoughts on the Fertilizer companies and Potash companies? They’ve had a reasonable correction and seem set to move higher.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:23 AM

        got to feed the masses something…….

          Apr 07, 2015 07:25 AM

          Yep, a growing population always needs food. Fertilizers are big business.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:41 AM

            Good discussion folks. GMOs are bad news and should be illegal. I hope one day soon they will be. At least for our kids sake..

            Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

            Check out the video links posted below from myself and the 4 from Franky. Some good information on those.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:28 AM

          I like Monsanto…….they product ROUND UP….great weed killer, and people killer, and great for the medical profession, since, the cancer providing agent has been found in Round em up and head um to the hospital…………….lol

            Apr 07, 2015 07:29 AM

            I CALL THAT a ROUND TRIP

            Apr 07, 2015 07:34 AM

            product to produce…….

            Apr 07, 2015 07:38 AM

            That is terrible and witty simultaneously J…..The Long.

            I can’t make myself buy Monsanto for ethical reasons. They have a big headquarters right by me here in TN, but they created Agent Orange that made many of my friends and their children permanently sick in Vietnam.

            They are also the ones producing Genetically Modified food grains, and since their seeds are patented, then when they spill over to farmers lands they accuse them of using their patents illegally and seize the farm. Something like 2,000-3,000 small farms have been seized by Monsanto over the last 10 years. They are tied into to all the big brotherhood (Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commissions, Bilderberg group, Bohemian Grove), and are as corrupt as the DuPont family. (they play for the darkside) If memory serves me correctly, higher up in the pyramid of power, Monsanto is controlled by Codex Alimentarius in some unholy alliance.

            I am sticking with Mosaic, Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, FMC Corp, and Intrepid Potash. Some of the Lithium producers also have fertilizer components as by-products.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:46 AM

            It is very challenging because I know people that work for Monsanto here locally, and despite all the articles, expose’s, and documentaries made about Monsanto, they talk about their great benefit packages. It is hard for a man to see the error of his companies ways, when his paycheck is tied to staying Ignorant (stemming from the word Ignore).

            Apr 07, 2015 07:57 AM

            Shad…….I am glad you point that Monsanto ….had seized 2000-3000 farms…I pointed that out over 2 years ago…..to the BIRDMAN…..which said I was like full of….., and did not know what I was talking about. Thanks for the info.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:01 AM

            I have been talking about GMO for at lease 7 years …and the impact of what you have described……thanks again for the valuable info.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:01 AM

            Monsanto is bad news, and there are alternatives. Sometimes they may get roped up in an ETF I like, but I just can’t support them directly. If you create Agent Orange and Weed Killer, but also our genetically modified Franken-food, then something seems out of wack.

            Your Round Trip comment did make me chuckle though.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:03 AM

            BTW….not trying to start anything….all has been forgiven……….j

            Apr 07, 2015 07:08 AM

            Many years ago I co-hosted a media confab where one of our guest speakers was a woman, Jane Akre, from Tampa, Fla. While working for a Faux (i.e. – Fox) News affiliate, she did an investigative report on Monsanto; specifically its bovine growth hormone (I was familiar with the early controversy over this, given my involvement prior to that with the Grange.)

            Monsanto proved what evil bastards they are by how they attacked this woman and her husband and, eventually, bankrupted them (part of the process, you might imagine, is that the Faux News affiliate canned her.)

            Some background here:

            http://www.projectcensored.org/11-the-media-can-legally-lie/

            Apr 07, 2015 07:19 AM

            Shad,

            I stand behind you my friend! Great post as usual.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:22 AM

            Wow, I hadn’t heard that Chris T., but it doesn’t surprise me with them.

            If anyone will spend just a few moments digging into Monsanto’s past, it is easy to find what an evil company they are. There are tons of articles, and documentaries that go into insane detail, yet, there are churning out the poisons for us.

            Franky – where are ya buddy with the You Tube videos?

            Having said that, fertilizers are the forgotten hard commodity that are the engine for Food – the biggest “soft comodities” on the planet. There isn’t a great commodity space or forum that highlight it like the precious metals, base metals, uranium, specialty metals and rare earths, so usually the lithium miners have some cross-pollination. Fertilizers are also big business for the developing world. It is worth tracking, and currently, it looks like a good place to take a small position in the space so I just wanted others thoughts on it.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:23 AM

            Thanks Glen!

            Apr 07, 2015 07:27 AM

            Im sorry to sound like a kid but have I been painted by al as the poster child for profanity? I just read a piece on temple and I have nothing against you temple but it can’t be one sided here.

            Bird any comments since you wanted police work done on profanity or does temple get a pass?

            CFS
            Apr 07, 2015 07:41 AM

            This is not a recommendation, but the european version of big agribusiness, Syngenta beats Monsanto on all fronts. SYT has a lower P/E ratio, higher dividend yield, better analysts recommendations, than MON.
            I personally think both are over-priced, but since QE is starting in Europe, SYT beats MON in my book hands down.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:55 AM

            Good thoughts CFS. Yes, any company beats Monsanto in my opinion : – )

            As for (SYT) Syngenta AG. It has had a nice pop recently and may have turned the corner finally. Since the beginning of 2013 SYT has been continuously making lower lows and lower highs. The jury is still out on whether the Oct 13th low of $59.27 was the final “bottom”, but it has broken above the old Feb 5th, 2014 low at $67.48 which is bullish. It looks like it wants to challenge the recent Feb 25th high at $71.11.

            When commodities make a comeback later this year and into next year, then most of the companies mentioned on this blog today should have a nice up leg (MOS, FMC, POT, IPI, ALLRF, VALE, and SOIL)

            Apr 07, 2015 07:04 AM

            I think POT is a great hit…………lol

            Apr 07, 2015 07:05 AM

            if you take POT on MON. ,…you have the rest of the week to relax…………lol

            Apr 07, 2015 07:06 AM

            oh, Big AL told……………

            Apr 07, 2015 07:06 AM

            Smokin’ hot.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:07 AM

            told me…..I lost my train of thought…………………

            Apr 07, 2015 07:29 AM

            funny.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:12 AM

            OK. I’m at a disadvantage without Franky’s amazing You Tube posting skills. I do want try a good Monsanto video post like Franky though. Here goes……

            “J….THE LONG…..” YOU MAKE ROUND UP YOU’RE KING. DIS BAD…..MONSANTO NEW KING DAT ROUND YOU UP> HA HA – Buy Gold!! BUY BUY BUY!!!! WATCH DIS NOW!

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G5dlNzPnzU

            Apr 07, 2015 07:19 AM

            In all seriousness, anyone interested in the story of Monsanto, or just care about ethics, food, humanity, and not being poisoned to death…..then check out the above link.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:46 PM

            I HAVE not watched the video yet,,,,,,,,,,,,,,but……THAT IS FUNNY……….LOVE IT

            Apr 07, 2015 07:59 PM

            Ha ha! “Cool is the Way” — My favorite Franky quote

            Apr 07, 2015 07:00 PM

            I WATCHED……….sad…but true………….j

            Apr 07, 2015 07:20 PM

            Long time lurker first time poster…
            Great Job you’re doing Chris!! Big Al I hope you’re doing good and return soon to full health!!
            There is a part in the movie ‘The Corporation’ on the BGH nonsense Chris mentions in this thread. You can view the entire movie on youtube, but here’s the clip in relation to Monsanto…
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZkDikRLQrw

            Apr 07, 2015 07:48 PM

            SHAD……franky is going to lov yu…..he might even u tube u………

            Apr 07, 2015 07:58 PM

            Well I just figured Franky would have a few You Tube posts for us on Monsanto, or big brother, or something……but……radio silence.

            BTW – I’ve never been you-tubed before, and it doesn’t sound very appealing.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:41 PM

            Day never STOP ! MONSANTO ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNpmT0W3uyk

            Apr 07, 2015 07:57 PM
            Apr 07, 2015 07:32 PM

            Yes!!! Franky is on the case…..

            Much appreciated sir!

      Apr 07, 2015 07:42 AM

      Lo and Behold, once again everything up in anticipation of the rate hike being delayed again, but not gold because dollar up, so gold down. I’m sick and tired of hearing this stupid mantra get repeated again and again, like gold has only been around since 1945. This is how the manipulators get away with this.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:22 AM

    Longer term I like this space. The big names got hit due to the tax issues in Saskatchewan; more of a tax bill for most of them. But that should be mitigated by stronger pricing worldwide, incl. recent purchases from China.

    I wrote my subscribers over a week ago about one of the expl. companies on my list that’s popped; optimism came about due to one big news item RE: development of a mine. The bigger news could come next week, when India’s PM Modi visits PM Harper in Canada. The possibility is that India turns long-running rumors into fact by announcing one or more big fertilizer (and other) deals.

      Apr 07, 2015 07:30 AM

      Yes I saw that about the tax issues. I like both (MOS) Mosaic and (POT) Potash Corp of Saskatchewan. However there are other companies like (IPI) Intrepid Potash and (FMC) FMC Corp that corrected as the same time, and aren’t exposed to Canadian taxes. It seems like the whole space corrected and is coming out of it.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:53 AM

        One Potash Company that I follow is Allana Potash (AAA.TO) and it has popped more than 60% since I mentioned it early February. It’s has a great narrative and is strongly supported so I believe strongly that mine will come into production in time. Currently trading .49 up from .30 in February this year…..not trading advice of course. This represents my personal opinion.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:58 AM

          Cool. Thanks Birdman, as I am not familiar with that company, but which put it on my watchlist.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:26 AM

            Anytime Shad. My timing was pretty darn good on this one as the technical setup was nearly perfect the day I left my comments. If you are curious to read those three comments from February this year then here is the link (this saves me from blabbering the same thing again today!).

            Apr 07, 2015 07:27 AM

            Oops! The link is here to the Feb 07 show, Shad…..sorry about that.
            http://www.kereport.com/2015/02/07/john-kaiser-doc-discuss-state-junior-market/#comments

            Apr 07, 2015 07:34 AM

            Wow. You really did post a ton on Allana in that post. Thanks for sharing that.

            You mentioned another company on that same thread: Israel Chemicals Ltd. (ICL)

            What is their deal, as I went to check them out, and their chart hurt my eyes : – )

            Why the big crash?

            Apr 07, 2015 07:24 AM

            Not sure Shad….I don’t really follow ICL too closely. But I can dig into it.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:34 AM

            Not a big deal, but I just saw where you mentioned that they were major shareholders in Allana. When I went to check out (ICL) it was one of the craziest 2 year and 5 year charts.

            This was an interested tidbit from you post that day:

            Allana is now involved in a “Potash for Growth” program that is designed to open the way for the advent of widespread fertilization in Ethiopia’s agricultural sector with hopes that the country can achieve self sufficiency in food production.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:38 AM

            I figured it out. It is just that the chart kept resetting to $0.00 for certain days (probably due to a lack of trading) and then return to the previous level. It looks like a penny chart pattern, but it is not something I am recommending for sure. Just thought you may no what their story was.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:50 PM

            Unless I miss my guess ICL dropped after announcing it was acquiring a big slug of Allana

            Apr 08, 2015 08:49 AM

            As for the big crash in price if you pull up a 1 or 2 year chart, it is because on Sept 24th in the Tel Aviv (or Sept 23rd in US) – the price was determined to be set at $7 for the IPO on the NYSE. That makes much more sense after some homework.

            Here is the link
            http://www.icl-group.com/newsevents-pressreleases/Article/8fe34707-a521-4e1c-b431-c0042be100df.aspx

            They have been very active in buying Allana shares lately according to their press releases, and this is what spiked those shares. It appears that Allana may be in their sites for a takeover. Curious…….

            Apr 08, 2015 08:57 AM

            OK. I am an idiot and should have finished my research before posting.

            ICL is taking over Allana and that is why they are purchasing all those shares. Here is the link to the March 27th press release where ICL is doing the takeover to expedite the Potash mine in Ethiopia.

            http://www.icl-group.com/newsevents-pressreleases/Article/54eeea83-0c29-479f-81e0-3bf0a4ed04ce.aspx

            Apr 08, 2015 08:55 AM

            Thanks Shad. This is a stock to watch in my opinion. Israel and Ethiopia have greatly expanded economic ties in the past year with a projected two billion of direct investment currently planned in mining, agriculture, flowers.

            Ethiopia has become a regional hot spot for the expansion plans of a large number of Israeli companies that would not otherwise have easy access to investing in the Middle East and North African regions. Expect to see a lot more in the future.

            Because of its close proximity, short flight times, large Ethiopian Diaspora living in Israel and Ethiopia being primarily Christian and open to outside investment the ties have grown substantially in the last while.

            This is one of the reasons I am so optimistic about Allana and view its new mine as being a certainty to come into production. The ICL investment is actually 600 million according to an article that I will link below.

            That was why I suggested Al and Cory consider this company for inclusion in their newsletter.

            Israel Chemicals to invest $600m in Ethiopian mine
            http://www.globes.co.il/en/article-israel-chemicals-to-invest-600m-in-ethiopian-potash-mine-1000939587

            Apr 08, 2015 08:10 AM

            I agree ICL will now be the company to watch.

            The article you posted on the $600 million investment is from 2014.

            Go look at the article I posted from March 27th that I pulled right of the ICL website. ICL is taking over Allana and that is why their shares spiked. It will be $.50 Canadian or around ($.39-.40 US) per share. The US OTC (ALLRF) is trading at $.3854 accordingly.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:42 AM

          that should have said “know” what their story was….

            Apr 08, 2015 08:10 AM

            OK Birdman and Chris…. after finally doing some homework on ICL and realizing that the reason for the apparent crash on the 1 yr and 2 yr charts was merely their IPO on the NYSE at $7 a share (see the link above). Then after postulating like a dummy on the blog that they may take over Allana, and then realizing that they are taking over Allana, then that explains the pop you saw in their share price Birdman. You mentioned you were not familiar with them, but now they are going to be family 🙂

            OK, after digging through all the different areas that ICL is involved, and the various segments of their business, I’ve come out of this impressed. I am going to add to them to Fertilizer crew along with (Mosaic, Potash Corp, FMC Corp, Intrepid Potash]

            Apr 08, 2015 08:07 AM

            Thanks for the effort Shad. I learned a lot here digging deeper to and you got me on the right track. This one would be in the long term category of course. Even once it comes to production it will probably be years before it returns profits. No matter. I only ask myself what is a typical potash mine worth on a share basis. It’s a lot more than 50 cents once its up and running.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:12 AM

            Yes it was a good investigation, however I think you need to read the article about the takeover. The point of the takeover by ICL is that they now intend to fast-track that Potash mine to meet the initiatives in Ethiopia.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:57 AM

        I should also throw in Vale S.A. (VALE) as they have a significant Potash and Fertilizer component, and a streaming deal with Silver Wheaton on their metals.

        Here is their blurb for anyone interested:

        Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, production, and sale of iron ore and pellets, nickel, fertilizer, copper, coal, manganese, ferroalloys, cobalt, platinum group metals, and precious metals in Brazil and internationally.

        When commodities do rebound in 2015/2016 they should do well.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:09 AM

          Agreed, Shad

    CFS
    Apr 07, 2015 07:33 AM

    Although I have a favorite fertilizer company, not based in Saskatchewan, a safish way to play fertilizers is via the ETF “SOIL”
    It just had a golden cross and looks like it’s ready for an up-leg.

      Apr 07, 2015 07:41 AM

      Great point on the ETF (SOIL). Yes it has the same basic chart that all these companies have, and the whole space looks like it may have a leg up from here.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:41 AM

    Thanks CFS. Will check.

      Apr 07, 2015 07:10 AM

      What did you guys do…pilfer an advance copy of my next issue??

        Apr 07, 2015 07:41 AM

        Nope. We were just hungry and wondering if food came in a box, or if people still grew it out in the real world? : – )

          LFP
          Apr 07, 2015 07:00 PM

          @ Shad

          Y’oh there, Shad. Been meaning to mention this to you for some time now &, in reading this thread commencing with your list of ”Must-Know Organisations For Newbie Tin-Foilers: Intro 101”, I couldn’t help but [AGAIN] notice you trying to enunciate a ”smiley” via your keyboard.

          So ”D’ah Golden Rule”, dude, is to omit the spaces *between* the symbols, ensuring that
          this: : – ) « that’s your version
          is outputted/read/seen as this» 🙂 on the site/blog you’re uploading your missive to.
          NO spaces between colon,hyphen and right bracket.

          No thanks needed, just send money – here’s my PayPal Acct. nym
          🙂 « see?.. no spaces.

          —LFP

          P.S.: And I hope franky sues you for fraudulent impersonation !!

            Apr 07, 2015 07:37 PM

            🙂

            Apr 07, 2015 07:38 PM

            OK I think I got it now LFP. Who would have known a space would prevent the symbol from showing. Thanks!

            Apr 07, 2015 07:40 PM

            PS – I recruited Franky’s help from another blog today and asked him to help post videos up above, and he went to town with 4 good videos, so it was a team effort.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:58 AM

        That sounds like a good next issue though Mr. T.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:16 AM

    I think this is just a day trading market – if you have the man bits to do so. One day we can be up several points seemingly for no reason. Next day we can be down several hundred points semeingly for no reason.

    The financial, political or geo-political news seemingly bears no relationship to how the markets will react at any given time.

    The banks love it though. They are making money. But perhaps that it is indeed the intention.

    I am amazed that one of those billionaire hedge fund guys has not yet decided to sue the US Fed – or someone – over all of this. But, hey, who can you sue?

    Apr 07, 2015 07:32 AM

    Matthew, Shad et al
    Apr 07 Rates Hikes: Bullish For Gold Stocks Stewart Thomson 321gold

      Apr 07, 2015 07:34 AM

      Indeed! Rate hikes are bullish. Could not have said it better myself. Thanks Agatha….I will go take a look at your link.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:52 AM

        That’s funny, you also said:
        “Rising rates are not generally a positive for gold for the simple reason that most people want a return on their investment and are loathe to hold assets that do not perform versus inflation. The period of the 1970′s gold bull market was exceptional as it coincided with an energy crisis and very high inflation rates. You do know the relationship between interest rates and inflation, I presume? If rates rise gold is going down in this environment.”
        —————-
        Ok, back to ignoring you.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:12 AM

          To funny………….sorry………….

            Apr 07, 2015 07:16 AM

            but, I all fairness a person does have the right to change their mind………….lol

            Apr 07, 2015 07:18 AM

            Isn’t it though? He was against it before he was for it? lol
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JV9oMZE1Qak

            Apr 07, 2015 07:21 AM

            That’s true, J, but he will fight to the death someone who tries to teach him. Then, he will adopt his opponents views and make them his own much later when he thinks no one will notice.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:33 AM

            You have taken my name man!!!

            Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            Of course, I usually ignore my wife. So get back to the cooking and cleaning if you don’t mind and leave the business to the men in the room…..and make me a cup of coffee since you’re bored. Two lumps of sugar….. Hey, are you putting on a few pounds, baby?

            Apr 07, 2015 07:36 AM

            Let’s all try to stay positive …..for the community……….ya know………..j

            Apr 07, 2015 07:42 AM

            Of course Jerry. Mimicry is the greatest form of compliments. So he can use my name if he needs the attention. It just that I cannot stop laughing about it though. Sorry….it is really, really funny. 🙂

            Apr 07, 2015 07:05 PM

            For Matthew re the madman: A narcissist feeds on anything before he eventually devours himself.!! Or as Euripedes said ‘Those who the gods would destroy they first make mad’. Hang on in my friend. It’s only a matter of time! Very best, A

            Apr 07, 2015 07:12 PM

            Thanks Andrew! Hangin’ on!

          Apr 07, 2015 07:51 AM

          J, he is now deflecting due to embarrassment.

          P.s. – I should have thought of my new handle much sooner as it let’s all newcomers know right off the bat that I don’t consider the B’s opinion to be worthwhile.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:02 AM

            So you are asking me to marry your name to make the nuptials complet? Cute Matthew.

            Anyway, moving on. When I wrote that interest rates were bullish in my post above I did NOT mention gold. So you have made a mistake interpreting todays comment with remarks from the past.

            In fact, rate rises are bullish for the ECONOMY because as they go up they will stimulate borrowing and investment. Notice I am very specific in this post that I refer to the broad economy and not to gold.

            Don’t assume anything Mrs. Bird!!!

            Apr 07, 2015 07:03 AM

            Now get me a coffee!

            Apr 07, 2015 07:40 AM

            This looks like a good place to re-post my response to BB that was rejected by Al.

            “BB, you’re out of your mind if you think Bird’s antics aren’t kids stuff OR if you think that anyone in the entire history of this comment section is more guilty of personal attacks than Bird. No wonder you fall for Bill Still; there’s not a rational bone in your body.”

            Apr 07, 2015 07:51 AM

            I hope the slower end of the spectrum here is waking up to your dishonesty. Stewart was talking gold and I would bet that Agatha was too; now you’re claiming that you were talking about the economy when you agreed? GTFO.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:28 PM

            if the SHTF…….will there be tailfeathers in the mix……..Small Hit Tail Feathers.

      Apr 07, 2015 07:01 AM

      I tend to agree Agatha, that when rates first rise that they can actually help PMs, but if they keep rising, then they end up hurting PMs.

      As Doc mentioned yesterday in one of the editorials, there isn’t always a strong correlation as we’ve scene scenarios play out where gold can sink or sail when rates get hiked, so it can be a mixed bag. We are also in a wacky new world were the new normal appears to be insane : – )

        Apr 07, 2015 07:05 AM

        It was an interesting article on 321 Gold though Agatha. Thanks for pointing it out.

        Apr 07, 2015 07:40 AM

        that should have said “seen scenarios play out….”

        Apr 07, 2015 07:12 AM

        Shad, From a long term chart perspective, Gold topped in 1980 at around 12-13% interest rates in canada. Rates continued higher of course crushing anything and everything in its way up until 1981 at 21% bank of canada.

        If rates go higher, even to 10%, god help us all or he who is not prepared.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:26 AM

          Yes. I have seen that highlighted before about Gold’s prior rise in 1980, and yes, there is always a breaking point where rising interest rates will eventually crush everything, but that is only when they get out of control.

          We are in a much different artificially constructed interest rate environment and global currency war this time. There has never been anything like this on a such a global scale, so it is uncharted territory. I am very concerned about the future and unraveling this central banking debacle.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:37 AM

            Shad, interest rates rose for years and years in the ’70s while gold went up 25x. The reason gold wasn’t hurt by it is that real rates were negative until very close to the end. Gold’s relative value to other assets helped positive interest rates to end the bull market. There were other factors too, of course.

            Currently, there is little, if anything, that threatens gold from a big-picture perspective.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:45 AM

            What? Is this the 1970’s again? Better get my Bell Bottoms out Headband out of the closet! Boogy Baby. It’s Free Bird all over again. Jeez, I really miss those days. Best times ever despite the inflation. I mean we really ROCKED!

            Lynyrd Skynyrd – Free Bird — 1973 …..Hooray!
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0W1v0kOELA

            Apr 07, 2015 07:04 PM

            The other big reason rising rates didn’t do too much damage is that, back then, there were not about $1.5 QUADRILLION “worth” of derivatives of various kinds that would have blown up long before rates ever got to their peak.

            Many comparisons to the 1970’s IMO are apt; and I’m making some myself. But saying the 1970’s is a ratification that interest rates can go up like that and not do major damage to gold (or other assets for that matter) is apples-and-oranges.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:11 PM

            In my view, gold would only be fueled by a problem with derivatives. Whether due to massive bailouts or lost confidence, gold will benefit tremendously.

            Apr 07, 2015 07:05 PM

            great comment on the gold Matthew………..j

            Apr 07, 2015 07:23 PM

            Good points about negative real interest rates in that 1970’s cycle, allowing gold to climb along with the increases Matthew. However I think the level gold would be starting from now and the global economic landscape now are much different animals.

            Chris T. I agree with the fact that, while there are some corollaries with the 1970s, we can’t assume the same thing will happen again if rates are raised, and that was a different macro environment compared to now.

            I am in full agreement that gold can rise with the rate hikes, but every time it has been threatened by the Fed over the last 2-3 years, then Gold & Silver take it on the chin. Something tells me that the rate hikes will eventually hurt gold and other assets down the road once they are implemented. For the near term all I can see is a token 25-50 point rise maybe in September (maybe never……)

            Apr 07, 2015 07:26 PM

            I do also agree Matthew that in the foreseeable future, gold is not under any significant threat from interest rates. It is the dollar that is doing all the pushing around at present, and there are many factors that affect the dollar on a global perspective.

          Apr 07, 2015 07:50 PM

          Glen, I had a mortgage in 1982 that went to 223/4 %, I renewed for a six month period and it wasn’t a big deal then because my detached house in TO was purchased in 1978 for only $38,000. Now it would cripple anyone who had bought within the same four years if rates go up 1.5%. DT

    Apr 07, 2015 07:46 AM

    Birdman, AAA Allana is a good company. I’ve followed and bought/ sold for many years. It is being bought out by its Israel Chemical partner for 50 cents. Nice pop from the 30’s but could have been worth much more long term without the buyout. Good cooperation from the Ethiopian government. Capex was huge for a small company, so a buyout makes some sense.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:09 AM

      I agree Marshall. Cheers!

    Apr 07, 2015 07:03 PM

    Chris – have just listened to Greg Hunter interview Bill Holter – interesting as you say. Do you think there’s any mileage to BH’s hope that courtesy of Edward Snowden’s revelations Americans may be hit by a ‘truth bomb’ starting with 9/11 revelations, and thereby nobbling the US government from being able to start a war? Best, A

    Apr 07, 2015 07:35 PM

    Hard to say…Americans are ever so slowly waking up to the fact that the rigged 2-party system and the power structure behind it are dirty. But thus far, about the only real “result” is that more and more people simply don’t vote. I don’t see any wholesale action being taken, nor any candidate(s) that are going to lead the charge away from the growing police/security state and the War Party.

    I was one of many who thought that not only the election but the re-election of Reagan would change things. After 8 years, federal spending and deficits had both exploded to the point where Jimmy Carter (who got a bum rap from history) was made to look like Scrooge. Reagan’s A.G. Meese gave us the onerous police state and overflowing prisons (though he has since admitted that all went too far.) We heard Reagan’s Sec. of State Jim Baker lecture the Senate that their views don’t count, since the president can take unilateral action under (in one case) the U.N. Charter.

    So all this folks carp about now didn’t start with Obama…and it won’t end with him.

    Maybe Rand Paul gets elected…and really is true blue, and not compromised. Maybe he or someone else is able to REALLY roll back the War Party, police state, welfare state, etc. But I’m not holding my breath.

    As The Joker would say, “THIS COUNTRY NEEDS AN ENEMA!”

      LFP
      Apr 07, 2015 07:35 PM

      On April 7, 2015 at 1:35 pm,
      Temple says:
      ……
      ‘… As The Joker would say, “THIS COUNTRY NEEDS AN ENEMA!”…’
      _______________________________________________________________

      It sure does, T.
      Based on my prognosis, the initial suppositories would be best administered to the most-seriously afflicted entites in Washington and New York, followed shortly thereafter by London and Tel Aviv. 😉

      —LFP

      Apr 07, 2015 07:44 PM

      As a human would say,, someone needs to tell the fkn truth!

      Apr 08, 2015 08:25 AM

      Plus ca change in other words. Oh dear. Maybe prayer is all we’re left with: Please Lord open people’s eyes before it’s all too late, Amen.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:45 PM

    stewart thomson obviously talks gold.Adam Hamilton says much the same re gold & silver as Thomson.If you reread Thomsons peice on 321gold he is talking a dovish fed NOW and that differs from Volker in 1980. He was trying to cool… she wants to heat…the banks need to lend & make money now with higher rates.. albeit symbolic rate hikes.His part about derivatives making money is in opposition to Holter who is featured on JSMineset today..Holter and apparently Sinclaie believe ‘derivatives’ will implode with rate hikes….I do not know which derivatives they refer to…
    The money velocity in regards to miners I dont get.WHICH derivatives are they referring to…??There was quite a lot in Thomsons peice. He has been accurate re The Fed for some time now moreso than anyone. Hamilton & he are imo the 2 best analysts on the pms. Holter Im not too keen on. There is a solid basing in the pms at present not speculative fear…the pm stocks are absurdly priced.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:12 PM

    I agree Agatha. Those who are worried are missing the boat.

    Apr 07, 2015 07:57 PM

    I am stuck between NUGT and JDST! Both bouncing red and green today sometimes trading near the same price!

      Apr 07, 2015 07:45 PM

      Jason, I commented on your JDST and JNUG positions and was responding to you with a few of the positions I was taking as I was making them real time on yesterdays Gary Savage blog from Monday the 6th at the very bottom.

      Biggus and Matthew also had some interesting remarks for you there concerning the 3xETF strategies. Worth a quick read.

    bb
    Apr 07, 2015 07:42 PM

    😉

    Apr 08, 2015 08:53 AM

    Shad/Jason. I buy and hold JNUG or DUST for as little as 1 hour to 4-5 days. I don’t like to stay in them overnight unless the direction is clear. I have not bought either in the past two weeks as there is no clear direction. These 3 x etf’s have severe decay and hence devalue significantly over time.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:14 AM

      I completely agree on just holding for a few days, but honestly the price swings are so extreme that I don’t worry much about the decay factor that many see as a negative. If you buy it at $20 and sell it at $22, then the decay is irrelevant. The only time that would matter is if you held for a really long period of time in a stagnant market.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:16 AM

        It really comes down to what you think will happen with GDXJ, and it can turn on a dime at opening, mid-day, or in the last 15 minutes of the day.