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Gary and Chris talk about dormant–and controlled–trading in gold, as well as oil, the dollar and technicals

Big Al
April 8, 2015

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Discussion
139 Comments
    Apr 08, 2015 08:24 AM

    Good thoughts on the markets, gold, oil, and current macro landscape.

    Thanks Gary & Chris.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:02 AM

      Scorpio is trading at its’ all time lows today. Bought a bit more.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

        The US (OTC) version of Scorpio (SMNPF) is just flatlining at $.14, and that is not the all time low for this equivalent stock. The low was in March at $.132.

        Today, Scorpio Gold had a positive press release, and Scorpio still owns 9% of that company from the spin-off. That will only help the cause.

        Silver is down substantially today, so almost ever Silver miner is down today (Hecla, Fortuna, Alexco, Endeavour, Great Panther, ect……) Although, strangely enough Coeur is up.

        So having Scorpio flat-lined is a blessing ๐Ÿ™‚

          Apr 08, 2015 08:33 AM

          I expect PMs to be up tomorrow and Friday to end the week higher, so that should help the miners. It will likely involve Greece. Who knows with these crazy markets?

            Apr 10, 2015 10:08 AM

            Well, I was sad that PMs didn’t bounce on Thursday, but we started getting the resumption of the uptrend in PMs as expected today on Friday. Scorpio Mining up to $.15 US (up another 2.36%).

          Apr 08, 2015 08:35 AM

          That press release may only be in the US. Did not find it on their home page.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:53 AM

            I saw it on Kitco in the press release section today.

            “Scorpio Gold Intersects 12.54 g/t Gold Over 15.91 Meters at the Solberry Satellite Deposit, Mineral Ridge Project, Nevada”

            It is a long link but I’ll try to post it here.

            http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/394-tsx-venture/sgn/5456-scorpio-gold-intersects-12-54-g-t-gold-over-15-91-meters-at-the-solberry-satellite-deposit-mineral-ridge-project-nevada.html#.VSVqcPldV8E

            Apr 08, 2015 08:04 AM

            Doh! I looked at the Scorpio Silver website. (;-) Thanks.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:34 AM

            Yeah, now that they are 2 separate companies, then the news is isolated to each company, but again, since they are big holder in Scorpio Gold, it is good to see that company paying off all its debt recently, it has a small mine producing revenues, and now they have some good exploration results. They are doing a mini-turnaround, and if their share price pops, then this will help Scorpio Mining’s balance sheet.

            I have deployed my dry powder or I’d be tempted to buy some today.

            Good luck to you Dan!

            Apr 09, 2015 09:40 AM

            As a follow up Dan & Matthew:

            In the US OTC version of Scorpio Mining it is up today at $.144 over yesterday (a 2.86% increase day over day), and this is on a day where Silver is down again another $.33 so far.

            To me that shows that marketplace is bottom fishing, and Scorpio is still getting a bid based on its fundamentals as a company.

            Apr 09, 2015 09:29 AM

            Yup, there’s a lot more green on my screen today than red.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:34 AM

        I bought more too…

    Apr 08, 2015 08:31 AM

    Anyone know why, a few hours before Greece is supposed to repay 500 million to the IMF, the Greek IMF representative just resigned?

      Apr 08, 2015 08:37 AM

      Don’t know Bob…I saw that the resignation is effective July 1.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:56 AM

      Everyone is sick of the Greek story now and worn out with it, but now is when the rubber will meet the road.

        Apr 09, 2015 09:16 AM

        Actually they just kicked the can down the road…..again.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:09 AM
      Apr 08, 2015 08:33 AM

      Peter,

      thanks for the news!

      Apr 08, 2015 08:57 AM

      Just like Australia.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:11 AM

        Exactly and its more likely BOC will stand pat and probably not cut rates next week.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:31 AM

          The currency chess game continues.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:35 AM

      Great news Peter! Mr Harper is terrific and doing all the right things.

    CFS
    Apr 08, 2015 08:10 AM
      Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

      Thanks for that CFS, A

      Apr 08, 2015 08:31 AM

      That may give PMs a nice boost tomorrow.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:30 PM

        Although, at present it doesn’t appear their is much strength in the gold buyers, and plenty of strength in the gold sellers. It would have to be an ugly news day for it to catch people off-guard and squeeze the large number of shorts.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:11 PM

          Here is a link to an interesting article from Mickey Fulp:

          Why Gold Stocks Still Suck

          http://www.kitco.com/ind/fulp/2015-04-07-Why-Gold-Stocks-Still-Suck.html

          The interesting thing to me on in this article was the part mid-way down, where they analyzed 7 top Major Gold companies: Agnico Eagle, Barrick, Eldorado, Goldcorp, Newmont, Randgold, and Yamana;

          What they found was that over the 11 year period from 2003 to 2013 that none of them had a track record of making enough revenue to cover expenses, and all of them had to seek financing from alternative methods to continue their operations with record gold valuations. It is very telling to how much some of the larger producers missed the mark during the dramatic rise in pricing.

          This also demonstrates why the average investor is not interested in the space, because the leaders in the sector did not make hay when the sun was shining.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:34 AM

      The crazy part CFS, is that there is really no reason Greece cannot be saved from an exit. It is just a matter of how the mindset behind the scenes gels up. It is more probable they stay in my view although it might all come down to 11th hour negotiations and a little more flexibility on all sides.

        CFS
        Apr 08, 2015 08:44 AM

        Thr problem with Greece and many countries is that mathmatically they have to borrow more money, even to pay interest on their debt.
        The Austrian economists in Germany have said; “Enough exposure to default”, no more lending, since Greece is not even trying to meet obligations by limiting spending.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:01 PM

          I will be pretty surprised if they don’t come through on the IMF loan.

    bb
    Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

    Thx for all your doing guys.

    Gary, you were saying Monday that gold should be rallying for the next 5-6 weeks,
    now its capped and only a small position should be risked.
    When expectations or thinking can change so fast, how much point is there in the goldshares?
    So far it seems to me Ann Bernhart has been correct.

    Yesterday my trading account was down, TD, just another risk of the market, did anyone else have the same experience?

      Apr 08, 2015 08:57 AM

      BB,
      Like I said we every confirmation that an intermediate bottom is i, but the unknown is whether or not the banks just capped the price.

      Personally I don’t trade much in the metals anymore because I don’t think it responds to suppluy and demand anymore, just where the banks want it to go.

        bb
        Apr 08, 2015 08:14 PM

        thx Gary, don’t blame you.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:08 PM

        I don’t know Gary, we have not even seen a 50% retracement yet so It makes no sense for gold to bottom and rise at this point. Just from a simple chart perspective this bear in gold will not complete until it reaches some more significant landmarks. As I have been pointing out in my recent posts I anticipate a fairly steep decline that is almost upon us. So I would be on guard.

        By the way, this hedging from the gold miners that has recently hit the news is kind of an acknowledgement that deeper lows are expected by the industry. All they are doing is locking in prices near their breakeven so they stay alive during the washout period. I think therefore that the hedging is purely defensive now that we have reached lows most of them never thought we would see. It is NOT bullish for gold as some of the bulls keep asserting.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:15 PM

          Bird, I don’t expect Gold’s trip down to start until later in the year. I see more meandering around and then a collapse. I wouldn’t be surprised by a fast move up that gets sentiment on the side of the “bottom is in” crowd yelling from the streets and hopping on the bandwagon first before the whole thing starts heading towards 900ish.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:57 PM

            Bird,
            I’m just looking for a bear market rally. The final bottom isn’t due till the fall or spring and should test or drop below 1000.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:29 PM

            Wiseguy,

            What your saying has been said by virtually everyone in here. So it’s on record and 95% are thinking and saying the same as you. Its on kitco,zerohedge,analyst,bloggers, heck even muskateers are saying it. Only one problem, everyone is on the same wagon. You know what that means?

            It will do what majority don’t have a clue about and that may include me as well.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:32 PM

            The problem with gold is the herd crowd moves together. Im not even talking about bulls vs bears. Im talking about the herd crowd. Gold moves up 100 points and one person says something on kitco or anywhere and herd follows same tone in here and out there. Always a step behind. If you think it will do this bet again that it will do that. Ask chartster that question. Heck ask me that question. It is the one reason im on the side lately as this has become unpredictable to time.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:25 PM

            No question about it Wiseguy, gold is the great deceiver. There have been so many times that chart patterns appeared giving bullish signals its hardly even funny anymore (for the bulls that is!).

            Good examples are the golden crosses that let everyone down, the false double bottoms and multiple bottoms. Even the wedge patterns tricked many into getting long again. But at the end of the day the probabilities were always with bears like me and if we instead looked for those alternate chart patterns that suggested trouble was coming they have been easy to spot.

            Right now for example I would just discard the gold charts for predictive patterns other than the large bearish H&S I have identified. Our chances of getting the trend right are MUCH better by following silver since it more often leads than follows gold.

            And that pattern is quite bearish indicating a serious breakdown in price is coming.

            In such cases I would not wait for gold to take a dive any longer than a couple weeks at most and so my suggestion is not to feel complacent that there is a lot of time before we get an answer. Just my opinion of course, not trading advice. But this is what I see coming…..

            More pointedly, I think gold will take a face-plant during the next week and break below its current lows although it should keep most people distracted and faked out until then.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:56 AM

    I am pretty sure people do not steal things that are not in huge demand. Would love some stats on pms black market. Or is the entire market black.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:25 AM

    Gary,

    The special event “might” be today with fed news. If yellen speaks and one hears rates are put on hold language, then lookout. I agree we are at a crucial inflection point.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:34 AM

    Gary and temple good segment today!

    Gary I think your going to hit this one out of the ballpark on all fronts. I agree 100% with what you have said today.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

    Thanks guys, great show today. Silver declined pretty much right on target as I had warned yesterday when I said “look out below”. It was off .44 cents today and one point and again is adding credibility to my H&S pattern argument.

    That incidentally is not the bullish reverse H&S that Chris is talking about but rather a larger bearish pattern that began forming at the beginning of November. In fact the technical setup on silver is much clearer for me than that on gold so it is why I use it as my main indicator.

    Have a look for yourselves on the silver daily chart. It has been tripping all the right signals telling me a price collapse could be coming for precious metals.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:14 AM

      Go check yesterday’s blog. ICL is taking over Allana. See the press release from March 27, 2015 that I posted. They are fast-tracking that mine in Ethiopia. The press release you posted was from 2014.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:23 AM

        Saw it, thanks Shad.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:35 AM

          Cool.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:17 AM

    Dont hyperanalyze. Bet negative you win.
    Gold doing what it does best….down down down.

    Seriously, gold bulls are a foolish bunch. Outside of major war, fuggggetabout it.

    Like i said Not a single person has got it right. Doc was one of the better, but he is out of it.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:24 AM

      Hey, I got it right Dave! But then I am a gold bear right now…….

      Apr 08, 2015 08:52 AM

      If Greece gets dicey tomorrow, then I could see that as a short term driver for a pop in PMs for Thur/Friday and into next week. However, I could also see the Euro falling and strengthening the dollar which would put a lid on the safe haven upleg in Gold at around 1239.

      I am curious to see how this week will close, but mid-term I do think PMs will come into pressure towards the very end of the month and into May.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:27 AM

    You got no such thing right. Talk, type all you want. Ive never seen you state you were short.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:32 AM

      lol nice one.hehehe

        Apr 08, 2015 08:35 AM

        Are you nuts? Maybe you guys have not been following this site for the past two years. Whatever. You are not my concern and I happen to be in a good mood today. So I would like to stay that way.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:37 AM

          ditto to the good mood ๐Ÿ™‚

          I will stay out of your way.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:50 AM

        By the way…did you call silvers decline today Glen? Thought so…..

        Well I did. And it is in the process of breaking down right now.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:30 AM

    The Greeks are in Moscow today. Looking for a backdoor deal. I doubt it will be sweet enough but interesting enough. I wonder if China has anything to do with these “talks”?
    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32213161

    Apr 08, 2015 08:32 AM

    Forget everything you have been told.

    Look at me…listen to me and hear me.

    WE ARE IN A NEW PARADIGM !!!!

    The Transatlantic Imperialist Western Banking System will not…I repeat..will
    not ..be undermined without a full scale world war. The dollar system will be
    inforced by nuclear war if need be. Everything will be capped in price to keep
    the dollar fraud ponzi scheme alive.

    Until this is settled all these rumors of war and threats, investments of all kinds
    are high risk. Until its all settled its going to be the boulevard of broken dreams.

    The war cycle ends in 2020. Its only just begun. This year.

    Reference : Larry Edelson one of the most respected accurate analysts in the world.

    Sorry, nothing here to debate. The outcome is guaranteed to be catastrophic.

    Reference again : Larry Edelson

    YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED !!! Backed up by Marty too. For all you Marty fans.

    The business cycle is already peaking and now going to roll over.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:34 AM

      Correct. That is exactly right.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:39 AM

      Heavy with all due respect Larry has been wrong several times on timing. Look at his blog in the comment section. Those are some very upset clients who lost plenty of money i assume.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:54 AM

        Glen, no one is perfect but now we have Marty who
        has lost faith in the system.

        We have the events that are in clear view unfolding
        right under our own noses. No doubt, a very catastrophic
        war is coming. The bankers will not capitulate.

        Glen, point well taken. Next time your in town I need to be
        much more cautious of all my commentary.

        Anyway, I did give everything my stamp of approval. Find
        someone to complain to if I’m wrong and you have a case.

        I warn you, I am anonymous !!!

          Apr 08, 2015 08:40 PM

          Heavy,

          Point well taken. Your absolutely correct no one is perfect on timing. I agree with your war scenario.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:54 PM

            Thanks Glen, I don’t know but everyone must make their own
            decision. We see the sign posts. Probably best to take heed.
            I know I am.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:37 PM

        There are always people with an axe to grind Glen. And those same blamers are usually the ones with all the time in the world to harass analysts unrelentingly for years on end without remorse.

        The hardened gold bugs are oftentimes the most bitter, angry kind of investors I have ever know. Really bizarre actually how badly they took the fall. So I would not take their comments as evidence of anything other than they played and lost at gold and want someone else to take the heat.

        Anyway, those guys missed the most fundamental of market lessons. What goes up also comes down again! Its why I often say they are getting exactly what they deserve since they obviously cut class for most of the semester.

        But we secretly love them. Can’t make an easy buck without those guys!!!!

      Apr 08, 2015 08:06 PM

      Heavy I don’t know whether you heard Bill Holter on USA Watchdog yesterday. One point he made towards the end of his piece was to question whether Edward Snowden with a little vested interest from Russia might release some of the evidence he has to prove once and for all that 9/11 was an inside job. If such a ‘truth bomb’ were dropped on the western world at large, then the U.S. military could be stopped in its tracks: Immobilised by the irrefutable facts that it has accelerated all its twenty first conflicts on the basis of one mega deception.
      For by now I see that we are left with few options other than to implore our Heavenly Father to open people’s eyes.

      Best as always, A

        Apr 08, 2015 08:15 PM

        P.S Although as Chris Temple said in a post yesterday the U.S. needs an enema for any truth to pop out!!

          Apr 08, 2015 08:32 PM

          That’s funny Reverend Andrew. Chris is excellent. I couldn’t agree more either.

          Its lawlessness and corruption that trumps anything we have seen.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:28 PM

        Thanks Reverend Andrew excellent points and commentary. โ˜†

        Really don’t follow Bill Holter and knew he was on Greg Hunters
        interview. Lots of truth in Bills words I believe. To be honest its
        wash, rinse and repeat with these guys. Its difficult to listen to
        anymore for me.

        Furthermore , to be honest I’m so certain of what’s currently transpiring
        in the world we live listening to all these guys I don’t learn much of anything.

        Well Andrew, I believe the writing is on the wall in a few words. You know.
        END. lol..Your last paragraph is probably the wisest advise if people would
        listen.

        Also, I know some have disagreements with Bob Moriarty. I have high respect
        for his recent posts that the whole system is going to blow.

        Reverend Andrew, things look very grim and that silver lining I just can’t see it
        no matter how hard I look.

        Thanks for the nice reply. Much appreciated. Peace and Blessings !!! : )

    Apr 08, 2015 08:47 AM

    Heavy,
    I really pray your armchair “thought gurus” are completely wrong in their insane war cycle predictions!!! If I am wrong and they are right, then nihilism will have taken us over. This means we r all dead! At its core their WW3 position is complete and utter nihilism.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:58 AM

      I do apologize Confused. Don’t have to look to far that the world’s
      differences will not be settled with diplomacy.

      Only through a physical conflict. Its coming. Brace yourself.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:54 AM

    US$1200 knife fight, AGAIN. How many more times can the 1200 level be broken, from both above and below (rhetorical question, BM, please don’t answer)?

      Apr 08, 2015 08:07 PM

      The beatings and whipsaws in gold will continue until moral improves. Carry on, citizen. Sincerely, Uncle Sam.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:10 PM

        *morale. Sincerely, a very drunk Uncle Sam

          Apr 08, 2015 08:08 PM

          Hey chris ~ Actually “moral” may be also correct: As in – the people influencing the PM futures have no morals. (And it WAS NOT a Freudian slip, because you typed it)

      Apr 08, 2015 08:40 PM

      Good analogy Brian, and I believe the knife fight will yield to the bulls once we get into overnight trading. By tomorrow my speculation is that we’ll be at a higher Gold price due to Greek jitters. It will be muted as I’d expect the Euro down and Dollar up as well.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:44 PM

        If gold goes up then dollar down imo shad and CAD up..

          Apr 08, 2015 08:04 PM

          Well, I actually think both Gold and the US Dollare may move in tandem up tomorrow based on the safe haven bid from the Greek Jitters. Euro and CAD would be down in this scenario.

          Who know though. That is just my speculation, and I’ve backed it up with adding to my position in JNUG. I am willing to admit that is a Very risky move, but no pain no gain. ๐Ÿ™‚

            Apr 08, 2015 08:34 PM

            Actually the Canadian dollar is a wildcard and could go up with Gold at the same time the US dollar is getting the safe haven bid. This is if things get hectic with Greece and the IMF tomorrow.

            What will be wild is if everything goes smoothly, and the Euro goes up with Gold. In that environment, then the US dollar would go down, and the Canadian dollar would appreciate in price.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:38 PM

            So what I’m saying is that all eyes are on Greece to see what they announce to the world tomorrow, and this could set 2 alternate paths in motion depending on if they:
            A) default on the payment stalling for the 6 week grace period…..or
            B) if they feel cornered and decide to exit the Euro and start their own currency.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:10 PM

            Several times a month I just say to myself (Yes … out loud): “FUGT just buy NUGT”

            Apr 08, 2015 08:26 PM

            Shad
            You have inadvertently invented a possible name for the US dollar, after the BIG RESET:

            “Dollare”

            Pronounced (sort of): doe-LAR-ray

            Apr 08, 2015 08:59 PM

            Ha! That’s funny Brian on the Dollare (doe-LAR-ray). I was hoping nobody would notice the spelling error, and just got typing too fast and forgot to read it before hitting submit. We’ll turn a lemon into lemonade and name the post reset Dollar the Dollare ๐Ÿ™‚

            As for my NUGT purchase yesterday and today, I am not overly encouraged that gold is still diving down in after hours in Hong Kong and Sydney markets to 1195, but maybe it will bounce from here and open higher tomorrow.

            My guess was that people would buy both Gold and the US Dollar for a safe haven bid against the Euro/Greek nightmare that never seems to end, but apparently nobody is worried…..

            Apr 08, 2015 08:26 PM

            It looks at present like Gold is not going to get legs and squeeze the shorts, and unfortunately I’m on the wrong side of this trade. We’ll see if there are any fireworks or sudden reversals tomorrow, but I think you are correct further down in the thread and there are large sellers that don’t like gold getting up over 1200. In my opinion, that makes for all the better short squeeze, but there doesn’t seem to be any strength in the Gold buying at present and that is worrisome.

            Apr 10, 2015 10:39 AM

            Hooray!! I finally got out of my JNUG position at a profit. What a Nerve-wrenching few days.

            Again, I could care less about the decay in holding the ETF if I buy at a price and sell at a higher price (just like any other equity).

      Apr 08, 2015 08:43 PM

      The 1200 level has no more significance anymore. Its been taken to bed a million times like an old rag doll.

      P.S Bird see how I got around the profanity ๐Ÿ™‚

      By the way I know someone who called the decline to the tee..It remains to be seen if we break down here anyways.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:08 PM

    Good description Brian – will remain a knife fight to the bitter end.

    Apr 08, 2015 08:20 PM

    Here is a good quote for the hard-money crowd:

    “The hard-money people want fractional banking to end and harp about lending creates more money. They want to send society back into the Dark Ages and end everything from mortgages and credit cards and so we would return to walking around in sack cloth. I seriously doubt they even understand what they are preaching”.

    “Those who demonize fractional banking harp on (that) money must be tangible because they cannot figure out the business cycle so they just want their money to always be worth the same, yet then want their wages to increase and their investments to appreciate simultaneously. You cannot have it both ways”.

    Martin Armstrong, April 8 2015
    Fractional v Relationship/Transactional Banking
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/08/fractional-v-relationshiptransactional-banking/

      Apr 08, 2015 08:51 PM

      Lets go back to the horse and buggy. 1800’s.

      Gold mining was popular and gold bugs were
      making all the rules.

      All gold bears were escorted out of the saloons
      and brought to trial.

      There they were exterminated or locked up for
      life so gold bugs could continue in their quest
      to be the wealthiest people on the planet.

      Maintaining our Constitution and Bill Of Rights.

      LONG LIVE GOLD BUGS !!!! High principal values
      and honest money.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:57 PM

      Not everyone who rails against fractional reserve banking wants a gold standard. I’m an example. If you listen to the last 2 segments from the weekend show – my discussion with Paul Glover – I advocate a rather different solution, personally.

      To his credit, even Ron Paul has backed off his years-long advocacy of a gold standard, and has more recently talked about true democracy and market choices where money is concerned.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:15 PM

        Mr. Temple ~ If I remember correctly, Dr. Paul considers currency (in part) a state’s right issue. For example, if Ohio wanted to have a silver based currency (along side the FRN), they should be able to. This also gets to the heart of the LOCAL currencies, which I find fascinating – mostly because they actually work, in my experience. Specifically, a local, currency can be used to : (a) keep “money” in the local community and (b) provide a simple way to barter work. ~ Brian

          Apr 08, 2015 08:25 PM

          Absolutely, Brian

          Apr 08, 2015 08:07 PM

          Too many people don’t understand that there’s been a lot of propaganda about gold for a very long time. Free markets are best, but it is not widely understood that the classical gold standard worked very well.

          As an aside, even if the greenbackers’ theories about Lincoln and JFK were valid, they are making a big mistake when they assume that they were killed because their supposed plans were “good.” None seem to have considered a much more plausible scenario in which the two were taken out because they threatened a powerful monopoly —that’s all.

          Again, market participants should be free to decide, but the people who hate gold have clearly been mislead. Most probably also think that central banks are necessary and even good.

          The following is worthwhile:
          http://mises.org/library/monetary-breakdown-west

            Apr 08, 2015 08:52 PM

            I should have mentioned that the piece I linked to above was written decades ago.

            Important quote:
            “It must be emphasized that gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard. Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money; as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium. Above all, the supply and provision of gold was subject only to market forces, and not to the arbitrary printing press of the government.” —Murray N. Rothbard

            Apr 08, 2015 08:05 PM

            Fantastic points Matthew on Gold vs the Greenbackers…..most people don’t have the right historical perspective on why things developed as they did with monetary policy. Thanks professor!

            Apr 08, 2015 08:35 PM

            Thanks Shad, and a big “woops” for that “a” in misled. What an a that a ๐Ÿ™

          Apr 08, 2015 08:03 PM

          Good thoughts on the state’s rights on their own currencies Brian. Most of the states rights have been eroded in favor of an all-powerful Federal government, and it was never the purpose of the Federal government to be a nanny state. There are actually a number of local and regional currencies springing up and that is a positive sign.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:30 PM

        True Democracy is mob-rule by those frightened and swayed by whoever controls the media, or dulled into a Brave New World indifference and desensitization (or as I see in our future: a mind-numbing entertainment culture). A True Republic has much potential for corruption and to become an oligarchy like we now have. Ahh, but these are much better than the communism and socialism alternatives, right?

        I say that what is needed is integrity in politicians enforced by immediate removal upon deceit (accountability). Trust is what great civilizations are built upon. Once trust is lost, it is VERY hard to gain back again. The US is nearing that loss of trust and confidence, but remains as the leader because no one else is trustworthy either.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:35 PM

          You want integrity remove all lawyers from congress lol. Plain and simple. They know how to corrupt and manipulate the policies. Take a record of how many politicians have law degrees.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:07 PM

          I think all the politicians just need term limits of 4-8 years max and that’s it. No more lifetime gigs, where they get infested with cronies for 20-40 years. If you had 4 years to get something done, then some politicians would go to work and not vote on things based on getting re-elected.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:11 PM

            I agree with the 4 years.. Shad

          Apr 09, 2015 09:57 AM

          In “Dismantling America” Thomas Sowell proposes all senators and congresspeople should only have one term and make it so that they are reasonably compensated. That way there key is serving their constituents and not their next campaign for office. I love that idea.

            Apr 09, 2015 09:14 PM

            Yes. It makes sense to have the public servant actually working instead of positioning on public perception and working to get re-elected.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:32 PM

        I wasn’t advocating communism at all, by the way. Communism is the replacement of the parents, social structures, and deity with corrupt government.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:16 PM

        Who cares what people want because most people don’t
        even know what good Italian food is.

        All the facts are based on price stability and when we were
        on the gold standard prices for food and necessities barely
        budged for over a hundred years.

        We all know we will never enjoy the gold standard unless we
        have a life changing event sending us back into a dark age.

        The bankers propaganda brain washes the masses to believe
        debt is a way to a prosperous life. What a bunch of B.S.

        Gold standard wasn’t perfect either but this big fraud
        and mountain of debt is going to send us back to the
        dark ages.

        At the end of the day the gold standard could avoid
        financial Armageddon. Its too late now.

        I think Marty is Pro..B.S. .The Cabal is watching him
        after his release.

          Apr 08, 2015 08:36 PM

          Heavy this is so true!

          Who cares what people want because most people donโ€™t
          even know what good Italian food is.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:10 PM

            Ha! HeavyHitter and Glenfidish the lack of awareness around great Italian food will definitely be the republic’s downfall!

            Forget Money, where the Manicotti ?

            Apr 08, 2015 08:24 PM

            Shad, they …out there are a bunch of…Tamaguchi’s.

            Hopefully the guys in here are catching on.

            We are in a new paradigm.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:54 PM

            Yes HH. I agree that we are in a new paradigm, and there is a lot of bifurcation in the global system at present.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:04 PM

            Shad, thanks for the comments.

            Highly respect your input/opinion.

            Its great to have you on the board. .btw.

            Glen has been a very good asset here
            for many months.

            All very excellent commentary from you guys. : )

            Apr 08, 2015 08:49 PM

            Manicotti? You have my mouth watering!

            Apr 08, 2015 08:59 PM

            Matt,

            I just though id add that I didn’t catch that March 11th low or else i might be braver :).

          Apr 08, 2015 08:37 PM

          Heavy notice when marty post something positive about gold, the next day it gets smacked. Look at it next time.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:49 PM

            Very interesting Glen. You are much more proactive. I have
            decided all these markets are very high risk with a huge event
            whether a great war or financial accident to activate by year
            end. Matthew is trading and that’s the correct way to approach
            these markets. I would rather not have the trading profits. I find
            it too stressful. You can’t invest for the long term with a overhanging
            event coming. All you can do is trade. IMHO. Get out with profits.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:14 PM

            I agree! Most of my money as I told Matt has come from way oversold indicators such as november low buys and then sell as you hit the fibanocci levels. Leave some in for a rainy day. The strategy of buy and hold forever is done. When you have a good profit take it and be patient.

            Trading is not my forte.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:38 PM

            Glen, excellent commentary. Looks like that’s the case.
            These markets are directionless. Trading is a pain. Only
            way to go unfortunately. Think its best to stand aside for
            long term commitments. I maintain we entered a new
            paradigm about 4 months ago. There is a back stop holding
            everything up and until these world differences are settled
            its a high risk crap shoot. Good decision on your part Glen.
            Be careful. This is the twilight zone world right now.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:22 PM

            Heavy thanks for the caution and advice. I agree. I think for some if you want to play it extra safe, id wait for the equities to start rolling over. A falling or major 20% hit on equities combined with verbal plans for qe, and I believe we have a gold low in place. Matt might differ from me but that’s ok as two minds thinking alike is not always a good think. Matt keeps me on my toes as well as the rest of the group in here. Top notch and that includes Bird when on his good behavior ๐Ÿ™‚

            Apr 08, 2015 08:43 PM

            Guys, I’m doing lots of buying and holding too. For example, I won’t be selling any more of my Claude stake at anywhere near the current price. The same goes for many others, a few of which I’ve mentioned here. I ain’t skeered!

            Apr 08, 2015 08:57 PM

            Matt,

            Considering the prices at which you bought claude I would not be scared either. Same concept as my low in Iamgold..I think for some of us it’s not about being brave or scared, it’s about being honest with yourself and risk management. Getting in her might reward you 1 year from today if you are correct about November low. But what if we have another leg down, can some of us weather that storm? For me seeing so many bright minds for the past three years be dead wrong on price action and low in gold is enough to respect these markets.

            There is no doubt matt you are a great trader by nature but for some of us like myself, my strategy has always worked better from a buy and hold longer term when at extreme lows.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:57 PM

            Thanks for the reply Glen. As long as your trading. I’m waiting
            for the great infliction point to pass no later by year end. That’s
            my forecast. Good comments as usual.

            Don’t encourage Bird to be too good. Its going to make me look
            like the real bad guy. Then his dreams will come true. Ha .Ha
            keep that Bird down and frustrated. J/K

            Apr 08, 2015 08:55 PM

            Profits? Trading the long side and trading bullish into a declining market is just the recipe for fat losses and lots of disappointments. That has long since been proven by the evidence of investor behavior.

            There is contrarian and then there is suicidal tendencies!

            Apr 09, 2015 09:23 AM

            Bird,

            I think you have me mistaken. I used November lows as an example of buying Iamgold at 1.62. I’ve been vocal about it. I sold some and rolled it over into cash account. I bought iamgold at 3.80 and ran with it to about 22.80 in 2009. When it fell and broke 16.50/17.00 level for the third time I sold a good amount. Rolled back into cash account. I have money to unload and have stated “if” we go lower I will only buy if new lows are made. I will put some down on a double bottom for a bounce but will look for 875/1025 region to deploy the battalion.

            Hope this helps with my by low and sell high. Im not talking years. It could mean weeks/months

    Apr 08, 2015 08:48 PM

    At exactly 2:00 EST, an entity tried to drop the gold price below $1200. I believe this was an attempt trip SELL stops in anticipation of a possible Greek announcement. I could be wrong (and I usually am), but this smells bad.

    There is a 25% chance that Gold will gap up to the US$1225 level tomorrow. Otherwise, moving back to the 1180-1200 zone would be fine and normal, I think.

    “2 steps forward, 1 step back”

      Apr 08, 2015 08:14 PM

      It looks like you are correct Brian. Some large buyer or manipulator or just big hedge funds don’t like to see gold rising. There are some very big short positions in place, and that was why I was thinking there would be a short squeeze where Gold makes it past 1223 and pushes into 1239 by next week.

      As mentioned above to you in a different tread, the after-hours market is down and gold hit 1195 when the Sydney/Hong Kong markets got rolling, so it is looking like I am on the wrong side of the trade this time.

      Lately, I’ve been surfing the waves up and down, but I think the tide and undertow just rolled me over onto some sharp coral.

        Apr 08, 2015 08:17 PM

        As Sammy Davis, Jr. was known to often say….”Ouch babe!”

          Apr 08, 2015 08:39 PM

          The night is long..Shad..however if your up from days past, id be booking profits for sure. A smart guy like you knows that already.

            Apr 08, 2015 08:01 PM

            Yeah, that is the problem, I am still underwater on the JNUG position. I averaged down today and had 2 different options to sell at a nice profit, but held on, and then things tapered down at close and in after hours. Hindsight is 20-20 as they say.

            Good luck to you and I’ll do crisis management tomorrow with fresh eyes.

            Apr 10, 2015 10:39 AM

            Hooray!! I finally got out of my JNUG position at a profit. What a Nerve-wrenching few days.

            Again, I could care less about the decay in holding the ETF if I buy at a price and sell at a higher price (just like any other equity).

    Apr 08, 2015 08:58 PM

    Interesting conversation.

    It still looks like the gold wash is in play. It also looks like a major rise in the dollar. Both for a short time. I just hope it ( the markets ) get on with what needs to happen.

    I doubt Greece will default, and the fed should raise rates sooner than later.

    FYI: Iran entered AIIB ( big deal IMO )

      Apr 08, 2015 08:32 PM

      I agree Chartster. Actually that’s my playbook right now as already mention these past weeks. The dollar will rise to meet its recent peak where it will top and roll over. The Euro will similarly double bottom.

      As the dollar rises, precious metals will face-plant breaking to new lows below the 2014 lows. If they do that then a recovery in price for gold is highly improbable in the near future and will be put off to another date as a major technical breakdown will indicate to all that the lows are indeed not yet in.

      The gold wash cometh. Call it the bloodbath phase if you like.

      It is dangerous as hell to be getting long miners right now, in my view. We really don’t know exactly what will happen once price is definitively below production costs but it won’t be pretty.

      The longs are going to get another education in chart dynamics and be taught that while contrarianism is often a good play, that it also has its dark side. And being hasty and premature to the bull party carries a heavy price.

      I have a 99% certainty gold has NOT yet seen its final lows.

        Apr 09, 2015 09:32 AM

        Your scenario does not make sense to me. You speak of a double top in dollar and we are a dollar and change away from that and gold is still hanging in. You expect new lows in gold and gold staying done there technically for a long time while the dollar rolls over and heads down? Nah no way dollar face plants and gold stays down for long the way you describe. I can see dollar continuing higher and gold face planting but not the other way.

          Apr 09, 2015 09:45 AM

          No way? ….then hold onto your hat because so far everything is coming up roses. The dollar does indeed have a date with a double top while both gold and silver are falling.

          We have a large bearish H&S pattern in play on metals, SLV, GLD and others. I am anticipating a serious drop coming as an outcome and that will happen coincident to the dollar topping or before it reaches the top.

          As long as gold breaks down during this phase then it will not matter that the dollar also falls after that fact has become obvious. Gold will have been skewered to the wall technically speaking and we should not expect the dollar / gold inverse relationship to hold up at that point.

      Apr 08, 2015 08:44 PM

      Every country except the USA will end up being part of the AIIB.

    bb
    Apr 08, 2015 08:50 PM

    You been hitting these drops pretty consistent Bird.
    2014 low is about 1140 from kitco charts.
    That’s a bit of a drop but not really a “come to jesus” event, you figure it drops lower?
    Sure be nice to see it make a final low, whatever that is.
    But you been so right for so long, don’t think Im gonna bet against you.
    I may even go short. lol

      Apr 09, 2015 09:51 AM

      Thanks bb. I am doing my best. As they say though you are only as good as your last trade. To my mind it is improbable gold and silver have bottomed at the current prices despite technicals that suggest that might be the case.

      These numbers are just wrong on every level. Deeper lows must yet be seen.

      Be cautious though because there is a lot of conflicting information on our plates at this time. The bulls have a case too so it adds to the confusion. While I doubt I will be wrong I cannot predict what might happen in the interim. That is my best advice if any of it is worthy.

    bb
    Apr 09, 2015 09:26 PM

    Everything you comment on is good Bird,(wish I knew enough to learn more from it) and when it isn’t its generally funny as heck.

    I get lots out of your discussions with people, noteworthy is vortex, but there are others of course. Chris,Doc,Gary naturally, but other posters too, sorry if Im neglecting people.
    But thanks to everyone actually.
    Its a great site.