There is definitely a West to East migration that many have covered happening for a while. The US, Switzerland, and Great Britain have sold much of their gold coins, bars, scrap gold, and ETF gold to the East over the last few years. That gold will not see the light of day again, and when people in the West finally wake up one day and do want to purchase large amounts of Gold, they’ll pay a pretty penny for it.

Here is a link to an interesting article from Mickey Fulp:

Why Gold Stocks Still Suck

http://www.kitco.com/ind/fulp/2015-04-07-Why-Gold-Stocks-Still-Suck.html

The interesting thing to me on in this article was the part mid-way down, where they analyzed 7 top Major Gold companies: Agnico Eagle, Barrick, Eldorado, Goldcorp, Newmont, Randgold, and Yamana;

What they found was that over the 11 year period from 2003 to 2013 that none of them had a track record of making enough revenue to cover expenses, and all of them had to seek financing from alternative methods to continue their operations with record gold valuations. It is very telling to how much some of the larger producers missed the mark during the dramatic rise in pricing.

This also demonstrates why the average investor is not interested in the space, because the leaders in the sector did not make hay when the sun was shining.

I hear ya. Rather hold myself responsible for investment decisions and
you can’t relay on analyst’s.

Wait till the wheels come off. Not seen anything yet. There are a lot of
dreamers here. 1970’s is not anywhere on the radar. Not now. The new
paradigm is going to shock everyone.

HH……..you are correct on the do your own DD., Most analyst do not know their ……from the hole in the ground. just my rant of the day…………..J

J…..Not sure if I’m correct. We just have to suit our
own tolerances etc. Blaming someone else is worse
than me making any errors. I can kick myself but not
able to get my hands on the clown.

From this hole ..to you. : )

ditto on set our own tolerance….

Btw…..I am reviewing Ezek 38..and 35. 1-9

Got some great comments from L. Feldick concerning the above.

Prophecy is exactly as todays news presents itself.

Whats he saying J….

Start looking up. ??? Redemption is close.

Thanks…

check out PSALMS 89 20-37

PSALMS 83

I will thanks J..

Personally I’m looking forward to be away
from all the B.S. here.

The world is a big liar. Wait till it crumbles.

Its all walking in darkness the faith in the world.

These will reference the beginning of where the US, will not be involved at the end, but RUSSIA and Israel. May take a longer time than one thinks , just because it is in the LORDS timing.

J….thats because America is wiped off the map.

One theory of many.

HH…..YOU are completely correct……….walking in dardness.

dardness to darkness

J…What about walking in ..damness.

Most do. Cursing and swearing.

Recently met a so called Christian but
after I got to know him he was using
foul language abusive and using doctrines
of demons.

The biggest threat to our Salvation is so
called Christians.

Have no choice but to turn away. Its a very
narrow road.

You will know they by their Fruits…………

they to them

Exactly…J…

For example, we don’t know that fall in crude oil is over, or if the bond market will go even higher. The ratio he points out is definitely at an extreme level though.

After a move like that, I believe it could take extreme measures (QE) to keep bonds inflated —if that’s still desired.

I would bet that big money is and has been exiting bonds as the Fed let them out at WAY above market prices (and stuck the dumb money with the bill).

You are probably correct that some smart money is starting to exit bonds, to leave retail investors holding the bag. I exited TLT in the last uptrend in late March, but was amazed it had been trucking along as well as it did.

Nothing shocks me anymore though, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see it do one more surge higher this year.

Matthew….I think you are correct on the exit of big money from bonds.

Right on. Well it is definitely food for thought.

Btw, silver’s move-ending spike in 2011 was about a 3.5 sigma event, so it would seem to me that 3.61 in T-bonds is very significant.

While we’re on the subject, the 1980 spike in silver was over a 15 sigma move while it was about 8 for gold. There’s been no secular top in the two metals.

We’re getting “in the neighborhood” with Silver for sure, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it hit one more lower leg down if the dollar spikes up past 100.39 and heads for the 110 blow-off top I am anticipated in May/June.

So you see a new low for silver, below 14.15?

Only if the dollar surges to the 110 level in the next 2 months. If it double-tops like some are postulating, then I think the low is in for Silver. As for Gold, I am still leaning the direction that the 1130 and 1140 levels will get tested in May.

Thanks, I will count myself wrong if silver makes a new low for any reason.

The action in the markets is so schizophrenic that it is hard to see what exactly is playing out at present, and people are reading into the tea leaves (charts/fundamentals/sentiment indicators) all kinds of different scenarios.

As they say, many times your first initial thoughts are the ones to stick with if undecided, so I am sticking with my call for a dollar surge and commodity cycle low in May.

I believe the Euro is a mess and the Yen isn’t much better, so this will bolster the dollar in the mid-term (2 months). In addition, the 4 year end to the Gold bear will likely coincide with this dollar blow off top, and it is possible that Silver could get dragged down in the commodity undertow if that plays out.

Later in the year things like earnings reports in the Oil Patch/multinationals/miners, the effects of the new AIIB, and the Middle East abandoning the Petro-dollar should pressure the dolllar and allow commodities to start climbing back out in a U-shaped recovery (not a V shaped). Gold & Silver miners and Uranium should lead the charge out of the starting gate.

The euro is definitely a mess, but I’d argue that enough of that mess has been priced in for now. Bearish sentiment and bets are at record levels. It’s similar to stocks in March ’09, bearishness and volume spiked; everyone who was going to sell, sold.

If it makes a new low, I think it will be marginal and come with positive technical divergences.

Well, a lot of the bearish expectations in the Euro are baked in at this point, but I don’t think people realize that it can get much worse. Right now most of the marketplace thinks the Euro will work out this Greek, Spain, Portugal, Italy mess. In my opinion it is a failed experiment, and if the Euro gets dismantled and all those countries don’t learn to get along, then the effects could roil the markets harder than what is currently priced in. Since the Euro is 60% weighted in the dollar basket, then this is what I think spikes the dollar.

Definitely a failed experiment, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be held together for far longer than the bears think.
I agree that if the dollar spikes it won’t be due to the dollar really going up but due to the euro going down. This is not just semantics, it’s the difference between fiction and non-fiction. This is why gold has not made a new low despite the fact that the USD soared another 15% since gold hit 1130. In my view, gold only suffered as much as it did because way too many investors put way too much importance USDX movements as if it is consistently a reliable measure of the dollar’s real value.

So, if the euro melts down far more than I think it will, I believe that we will see the dollar and gold rise together (when this happens, it always means that gold is number one).

Well I agree with all the points you just made Matthew. It is possible that in that kind of Euro meltdown, that Gold would go up in tandem with the USD as a safe haven.

I guess, I am not expected the failed experiment of the Euro to collapse tomorrow, but I think the warning signs will bring us to Dollar Euro parity soon enough, and that will cause enough pressure on PMs to end the 4 year bear. That is the only real concern I have, and after that I’ll be bullish on PMs for the next 3-5 years.

We’re in for a super major mega monster bull! For all you junior Mogambo Rangers out there, that’s an SMMMB. 🙂

good one Matthew

Matthew………..I AGREE ON THE SECULAR TOP..in the two metals…….

btw…….HH…….thanks for the post……the sheep are asleep…….j

What is interesting is during the BLACK plague….Dark ages 100 million people were wiped out., so Nuke could do the same thing very easily.

I think this can tie in very easily with Ezekiel 35 and 38…..and still have humanity exist until it is TIME for the main event.

Your right…J…

And be ready. With the armor of God.

ditto…brother

You bet…J…

Ha…fight the good ..fight.

Not easy Bro !!!!