Could gold and oil have put in an early daily cycle low?
Gary joins Cory and chats about a potential daily cycle bottom in the precious metals and oil that occurred early.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
LOL we easily beat the S&P last year. Nice try though.
Hows that short working out for you birdman?
Sadly, I think his short worked out just fine. It was imaginary to begin with.
I don’t own any nor particularly like Wildcat Silver but it seems to have a nice leverage with the price of silver IMHO. I did own it briefly but once again sold too early….. Doh!
Yes, I’ve been watching Wildcat since you mentioned it Dan, and it looks like it is going up to tag its 50 day moving average. Good rebound once the silver price bounced. Definitely something to watch, but I think there are better quality silver companies like Great Panther, Endeavour, Hecla, and Fortuna that make much better silver plays.
BTW Dan – Scorpio Mining in US OTC (SMNPF) was up 2.38% today to $.1474 US . This is 2 days in a row it was up both on a down and up day in spot Silver, and the volumes looked more normal as we discussed earlier in the week.
Cheers!
Gary – BTW thanks for clarifying your thoughts on the daily cycle low potentially ending early, or that this is a false breakout and we still need to validate on Monday if PMs may fall further into the day 18-28 timing band.
My time-frames were slightly different, but were also affected by how seasonality may affect the PMs in May/June, how 1st quarter earnings may be interpreted later this month and next month from the miners, and the potential for the Euro to disappoint moving the dollar higher in the near future. I really only expect another week or two of bullishness from the PMs before an anticipated steep decline in late April into May, for the reasons noted above.
At the beginning of the year I generically broke it down as follows for PM prices:
Jan-Feb (PMs up), March (PMs down), April (flat to up), May (down), June (flat to up), July-Oct (PM uptrend) Nov-Dec (flat to down).
Obviously this is not very specific and there are many technically important moves within that that need to be evaluated independently of the month, but it is just a general trend I was looking at based on long term charts of Gold/Silver, the Dollar, other currencies, and based on when projects were set to started or shelved based on press releases.
As a result, I anticipated a move up when things did dip down into March, and wen the dollar topped on Friday 13th I figured we’d have a 2 week Precious Metals rally, then a 1 week PM correction, and then another 1-2 weeks up into mid April for Gold/Silver.
Well, we had the 2 week PM rally after the dollar topped, and then the 1 week correction, and we started this week with the 2 week rally on the bad jobs report, took a breather, and started heading back up today. I anticipate another week or two up before turning back over for the grind down into Spring.
This is just my personal perspective, but I see the merit of Garys points on the intermediate cycle heading back up in PMs once the daily cycle low is put in here (and that may have happened afterhours yesterday). I also see the wisdom in people like Brian, Matthew, and Glenfidish that think we may keep heading up into Spring/Summer.
These markets are confusing for sure, and seem to lack a real trend at present, so it is crap-shoot. I do think the next month or so will give us some unexpected twists and turns, so I am prepared to be wrong in my forecast and react accordingly.
You clowns missed out on a solid three day decline in silver.
You think maybe a bounce was not in the cards and was not fairly predictable? Pretty funny if you ask me. Meanwhile, that little bounce today hardly compensates for the brutal 4 years of relentless declines.
Eventually you will be right though. Metals will go positive and the trend will move up. That is not now however so don’t get too excited about a small daily profit if you got one.
What’s cute is how you guys are so quick on the comments early in the morning (as if) you were already positioned ahead of time. If that’s true then we would also have heard wails of anguish on the days trades went against you…..but we never hear those comments.
In fact, the majority of days are down days in a falling market.
The short worked out just fine Dave, for me at least.
Just had to take Bob M’s advice, take the profit. lol
I have uncovered the true identity of birdman, his real name is birdboy. I found this video of him browsing other sites he visits. For those that need a little help, he is the boy in this video.
You nailed it. 😮
Can we stop with the snipes at Birdman please – he is entitled to his views on here as much as anyone else.
Disagree with him in conversation. Debate with him but, please, stop the digs. None of us would like to be targeted in such a way.
Empathy, empathy, empathy 🙂
Your right Bob UK, attacks just like the ones thrown at Bird are the exact thing teenagers commit suicide from, not saying bird is affected of course, but in Canada we have a lot of advertisments on tv not to attack people online because of the effects.
Its destructive.
Its just the attitude of the attackers, juvenile at best.
Worst is some people wont post I guess.
Anyone want to pass me a tissue?.
More importantly, Birds opinion on gold today.
You are correct, bb. My tissue post was childish.
Thank You Brian. no problems.
BB, your comments would be fine if you directed them at Birdman, the worst offender this site has ever seen. But since you don’t, they’re worse than a bad joke; they’re downright offensive and idiotic. “Juvenile at best” perfectly describes your Birdman —the crudest and most antagonistic guy this site has ever had. Your support of him is obviously not based on any reasonable/rational or logical assessment of the facts. Big surprise.
Matt,
lets start a campaign to have him kicked out. When he is not here everything is civilized even with the bears bb,bob and others. Still we are able to have dialogue without foul language etc. This guy is a virus in here period he will not change.
Bob we are not children to address your above post. If your going to post something at the very least be realistic and neutral in your approach. We know where you stand as it has been evident for a long time. I have tried to stop this nonsense for some time but bird is reluctant with the jabbing comments and foul language/spite extra. If anyone is childish it is him.
I’m with you, Glen. All of Bird’s supporters are completely irrational when it comes to seeing things as they really are. NO WONDER so many sociopaths are voted into office by the drooling class.
Mathew, Just gotta comment on who is elected.
Votes don’t count, both partys in the states in particular are bought and paid for by the same people.
Which psychopaths run the place has nothing to do with who votes for whom.
Voting actually only proves people still think it matters, meaning, the psychopaths still know the people remain ignorant “sheep”.
You completely missed the point. The masses STILL turn out to endorse the whole charade by voting for one of the establishment-approved candidates. The fact that voting doesn’t matter is beside the point; the people still believe what they want to, just like Bird’s supporters.
Make that man a corpral, He can defend an indefensible position.
*corporal
Sorry Bob, I do need to have a word with the Bird.
We have a score to settle since his analysis was
not as promised.
Turned out to be a bogus deal. I feel I’m due
at the minimum an apology for his fatal errors
and oversights.
I was mislead into believing the sky was blue
on a gold short trade and the sky was not blue
at all and now swimming in red ink.
Very unethical and disingenuous.
On top of that….Im having a bad..bad day all
this damn red ink. Totally unfair.
Heavyhitter, you are a turkey. I don’t even talk to you most days let alone advise you on trades. I merely express my opinion like everyone else. The rest of the time I spend defending against your pathetic childish tirades.
Bird, you are very limited aren’t you. Can’t overcome your
egotistical selfish behavior not even through some humor.
So if I’m a turkey, whats that make you with your derogatory
name calling. You just called everyone a clown too.
Your self esteem is so very low you need anything to make
you feel whole.
Bird, you are of very low caliber. You can’t comment and debate
without degrading others and really Bird you have made yourself
look like a pile of dog dutie around here.
Congratulations. ..BIRD…you made a name for yourself.
Bloated full of B.S. Your a joke and the jokes on you fella !!!!!!
HAAAAAAA ..HAAAAAAAAAA… ALL FRAUD !!!
That was comedy?
How about you stick to discussing the show and get off my ass for a change.
BIRD…Our dear friend and respectful poster..Eric.
Will never return here because of your derogatory
ruthless vicious malfunctioning behavior.
Aren’t you proud. All the damages you caused.
All in the name of your selfish relentless ego.
The Wonderful World Of Bird ..LOL. an atrocity. .
So…MR. BIRD.
HA….what makes you think I would trade off your
un-unethical “can’t stress that word enough”and
flawed full of errors monkey business analysis.
Included having conversations with you.
You really are over bloated full of infected puss.
Unsterile and most of all a ….TOXIC BIRD.
You really are over bloated full of infected puss, Unsterile and most of all a ….TOXIC BIRD. — Heavyhitter
————————————–
Come on Cory!!! Is this the words of a fellow Christian or is it a Troll talking?
Calling me a turkey Bird and everyone here a clown on this blog today.
The pot calling the kettle black again. A DOUBLE STANDARD.
You have more complaints in a week than mine all year.
Let me remind you again …Bird.
You start all these conflicts with
name calling like you did today.
Then Bird cries wolf.
Who do you think you are. ?
Its outrageous !!!
Check the thread HH. You started an argument with me at 9:24 this morning when I was not even here on the board posting. So yes, you are a turkey AND a troll.
No Bird. It was a civil debate with no abusive name calling.
I never called you any name in the post.
My comments were not hostile with any names I called you.
This is a board of civil debate. You started the name calling
with turkey and clowns.
Bird, you calling me a turkey and now a troll. Again.
You are Toxic. You really are.
Bird don’t be a coward. If your going to give it then take it but don’t cry foul to al or cory.
You guys really have to just stop, Glenfiddish.
Seriously…. j.u.s.t stop.
This is why we can’t get along with him!
Bird, you are of very low caliber. You can’t comment and debate
without degrading others and really Bird you have made yourself
look like a pile of dog dutie around here.
Guess its really you who married Matthew. Wink wink.
Absolutely right Bob. Thanks for saying that. These guys target me relentlessly and often when I am not even posting! Its totally nuts. But there is an element of jealousy at work. It really bothers them I have gotten so many trades right.
And since they cannot beat me in market calls they try to discredit me with slanderous nonsense. Basically they are sore losers in a zero sum game. This is probably all predictable when you only have sour grapes to chew on all day.
You’re guilty as charged by majority of the jury here.
All your posts must be monitored and subject to
very careful scrutiny and debate in the future.
This is like watching a football game and you don’t care who wins…..just enjoyin the game…lot of hitting….blocking…haven’t seen too many touchdowns…but then again I think it is in the 2nd quarter..more to come…
Bird, I am now convinced there are some here whose only purpose is to disrupt the site.
There is a possibility it works, I wonder if there is any way to convince Al,Cory,Doc,Chris and Gary of this?
It really could just be a matter of time it degenerates enough for actual contributors to avoid it entirely.
A lot of contributors won’t post anymore, bb. They complained in the past and just quit in exasperation when nothing was done. I see the crew is on your tail now! They live for this daily drama and little else as they disrupt most threads with stupid talk and false accusations (and some of them actually think they are Christians!…what a joke). My satisfaction will be seeing the longs crushed again next week. I am targeting a very nasty decline in metals.
Your targeting lower prices Bird.
Based on what your fruit cake analysis
and monkey business you tout around
here lately.
Get in back of the line…Bird.
HA…what a joke. You failed long ago.
Christian Bird? That IS Christian if you ask me (no offense intended to anyone)
My position has been made clear a few times about it, drop the religion and focus on what Jesus was talking about, a lot to learn there actually.
But it has nothing to do with Christianity, as has been made obvious for centuries now.
But lets not get into religion today, enough BS flying around as it is.
Im going to stay “not long” for awhile I think, this summer drop Gary talks about may happen. Im actually concerned with September too.
Should this big market drop happen, we could yet see goldstocks thrown out with the bathwater.
Just read another Rickards warning yesterday and a video of Turk and partner, they still think September/October could be “interesting”.
Gator,
The game I’ve been watching, they are going 4 and out, stuck on the 50 yard line.
It’s always 4th and a mile.. Yet they still go for it..
Lol
I am looking for a bonds to decline next week, bb. That’s one indicator gold will struggle. All the precious metals should decline early in the week, perhaps substantially before the week is out.
U <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<……………………….chicken tracks with a dribble….
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<50…………………chicken blocked at 50 yard line, and dribble the bunt.
bunt to punt………….dribble………
Of course BM’s the supremo shit stirrer on this site and anyone who can’t see it clearly hasn’t read some of his earlier posts, quite apart from some of his current ones. They are in a league of vileness that should have been held to shame long ago.The trouble is that an extreme narcissist simply doesn’t care how he becomes the centre of attention, just so long as he is. If it entails winding people up to a state of enraged fury then all to the good. It’s part of the fun.
Don’t know what can be done guys. But I know for a fact that BM is well on the way to turning this site into a wrecking ball, and as I’ve said before Al there are some issues you simply can’t remain neutral over.
Bird, when a person doesn’t recognise value, its their issue no?
Not directed at anyone.
When you educate an idiot, you end up with an educated idiot.
They have just proven how to waste another day with irritating off-topic posts and then amazingly turn around and blame me after picking an argument for absolutely no reason. They are trolls bb…..no question about it.
Read my original post Bird.
I was not being serious. You are way to rigid.
Now we are back in conflict. Thanks to you.
War it will be. Thats what you decided.
I’m going easy. You better reconsider.
Here, this is for you Heavy. You need to lighten up, man. Maybe a cup of tea would help.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGJX9tutZEA
OK..Bird..then be..HAPPY.
Next time please try and read my posts
with a more humorous side including
facetiously just being friendly.
Comprendo !!!!
Are you for real? You pretend to play nice and mother teresa and then you post this garbage.
Not directed at anyone.
When you educate an idiot, you end up with an educated idiot.
Glen, the funny thing is, I can’t think of anyone here who that comment pertains more directly to than BB, minus the educated part, of course.
Keep in mind bb that these guys are taking the attacks to new levels by conspiring with each other offline and in emails. Its why they are singling you out now. Pretty shameful stuff. But then they are VERY frustrated gold investors having lost considerable sums trying to catch a bottom during the last few hundreds of dollars declines. One time I will treat you to a collection of Matthews GDXJ purchases going back 24 months. Wow! Did he ever get smoked!
My satisfaction here?….they got exactly what they have coming to them. More is on the way.
Wrong Bird on all counts, Bird. Glen and I talk markets, not Bird and BB. Sorry.
As for my trading of GDXJ, you’ve never asked for a single detail about what I am doing. For example, you went into your usual crazy antics when I bought gdxj near 25 about a month ago. What you don’t know or care to know is that I always start my accumulation with very small orders very EARLY. GDXJ had been well over 30 as recently as late January, so starting my re-entry with a small buy at 25 was hardly a bad thing. Thanks to your treatment, I then shared what I was up to only with Glen and bought once or twice per dollar down in increasing size all the way to below 21. Based on what I was seeing near that low, I bought twice below 21 and came within 2 cents of getting filled a third time. Then, I didn’t take any profits until it went just above 24; then again around 24.90 and one more time around 25.10. And that’s the shares. I had a much better time with the call options. Did I play it perfectly? Not even close. Did I come out much better off? Yes.
For the years that I’ve been here, I’ve repeatedly said, “buy weakness, sell strength.”
That is not the same thing as “call bottoms, call tops.” When I do attempt to call a turn, I don’t do so because it matters to me or will change how I operate.
Btw, my 2013 call for gold to go no lower than 1155 to 1125 is still holding. I was also probably the only one here who talked about the Dow possibly reaching 19,000 way back when it hadn’t even taken out its 2007 high. In February, 2013, I said the following about the Dow when everyone here, including Al and his guests, were bearish: “…we could approach 15,000 this year. I think we’ll see 16,000 or a bit more in 2014. This area is not only the point and figure target, but also the upper resistance of a big megaphone pattern. If we get through it, 19,000 is the target.” and “My expectation, though, is that there will be a significant market decline from much higher levels in 3 or so years.” ——–
I probably won’t get the 3 years right, but the Dow is definitely much higher.
Like anyone else, I’ve also had plenty of expectations that were either wrong or wrong so far.
Matt,
Good post my friend! I know for a fact your being sincere. You have no obligation to even give the jerk an explanation. We are very lucky to have you here. You have stated numerous times you buy weakness and sell strength. If by now people believe you only buy and hold, then there clueless.
Basically they are sore losers in a zero sum game. This is probably all predictable when you only have sour grapes to chew on all day.
Another cheap shot directed at us. It continues as j said and the more you speak the more you attack us all including bob and others with your name calling and degrading comments. Keep it up im sure we all know who needs to go.
Sorry Bob, but are you blind? How do you miss the fact that Bird does absolutely nothing but take digs at everyone. No is guiltier of targeting others “in such a way.”
People are scary…..
For a guy ignoring me you sure focus on me a lot. Must be love. Or maybe just an obsession. You know, I don’t think I sent my Mother 28 emails in the past three years. But you sent Glenfiddish that many in a single day!
Freaky weird man-obsession!
But enough of that Matthew. Lets get serious with the charts. Whats your call for next week? Lets make it easy…..gold go uppy-up or gold go downy-down?
You spent yesterday chasing me around just trying to stir things up like the little bitch that you are. It’s all you ever do around here yet your unthinking pitiful little fans still think you’re the poor little victim. Pathetic.
No call then I guess?
I’ve been making very good calls lately, as Glen can attest, but I have less and less interest in sharing any of them here where clueless guys like you and your buddy misinterpret and misrepresent everything that gets said. No questions asked, just combative, childish assumptions from a couple of complete amateurs.
There is that Glen crutch again. Ha!
So basically, you have no idea what will happen to gold next. As usual, you only make your calls 20/20 like you did moments ago claiming you discussed trades (past tense) with Glen.
You see, what we are really looking forward to hearing from you is what you *think* will happen Monday and next week. And that way we might guess how you bet. In other words, for one time in all the years you have been here we will have real insights into the true extent of your investing prowess.
Don’t let us down now Matthew. Make that call BEFORE it happens. Do it just one time. You know, so we can all see how good you really are……….the audience is waiting. Is it upsy or downsy Matty?
where is the seriously……..j.u.s.t stop………..
Its just no call.
turkey trolling..>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>}}}}}… with lift off……….followed by dribble
Hardly. I let Glenn know that I was buying GDXJ calls within pennies of yesterday’s low as I was doing it. I also bought gdxj below 21 and was a seller just above and below 25. I mentioned these actions to Glen as I did them.
You and you alone are the reason I didn’t mention those actions here. Who needs your deluded, sarcastic, condescending, petty crap? You are here only to highlight how great you believe you are. You are not here to discuss anything politely and in a way that might be beneficial to anyone. You are a classic example of someone who must tear others down in order to seem merely relevant.
good call Matthew………hang in there………..j
Here ya go guys, it’s hard to get tired of these. Boy, that Birdman has always been far worse than bad.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&st=2013-08-10&en=2014-08-11&id=p74077532904&a=362646069
That is not true Matthew. You never make any calls in advance. Its always 20/20 hindsight and telling us how much money you made after the fact. So don’t blame me. I don’;t control what you post and write!
MATTHEW……..great charts and dialog keeping. YOU DA MAN………………….J
You’re lying as usual Bird.
Here’s another gem:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&st=2012-10-10&en=2014-08-11&id=p84707644397&a=362646998&listNum=1
Here’s a good one:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&st=2013-06-09&en=2013-09-06&id=p30821737119&a=372175914&listNum=1
Bird should change his name to Wrongway.
Matt’s charts with dialogue points are just awesome. Not trying to take sides here I just love the presentation method for making his point. Bird has be correct on a number of occasions as well.
Thanks Peter. About Matthews charts….well they have been pretty questionable in the past and most of the observations suggesting metals would rise based on this or that setup have turned out to be bad calls.
I mean, he talks bullish and then gold prices fall. Again and again and again.
If you had followed his “suggested” and less-than-specific premise you would have lost money on more than a few occasions. So its buyer beware and keep in mind the indicators he uses and the implied direction are often pretty subjective with blue pitchforks and bent silver spoons.
Basically he is telling you nothing at all. Not in words anyway.
Need I even mention the golden crosses that have never panned out yet. Not even once? But the technicals are not the actual problem. It is the interpretation where we find the errors. And that is why I call him the worst chart guy ever.
He just cannot read what he is linking in a way that is helpful because his bias is always bullish and does not consider reversals. Not that I really care. Those are his charts and his graphs and they are his problem.
But those are not valid site calls in my books anyway because for the most part he leaves it up to readers to assume something he has not even said. When I see him post a call on this site in black and white (actual words) then I will perhaps change my mind.
Until then, he cannot play by innuendo and then tell us he made good calls after the fact when in fact all he did was link a chart that any third grader with a laptop and a broadband connection could find on his own!
So call it Matthew….in black and white. Use real, measurable words in your post.
Yes i can attest that matt indeed made those calls. It is very sad and if many of you haven’t notice, myself and matt seem to be posting less and less in here. I speak for myself when I say im pretty much done here. It is consuming and drains the crap out of me with the repeated childish attacks on my post.
I have a real job that is investing/trading and in between called researching and preparing notes for the next day. If I come on here and share with ya all something is because I do it from the heart. It’s just not worth it anymore as al and cory allow this guy to literally ruin dialogue amongs bears and bulls. I have had many coversations with chartster,skeeta,biggus and even vortex when they see market somewhat different then me but this guy is relentless with the personal attacks and trying to make one feel like a child. Respect is earned not given. I have absolutely no respect for him and I personally don’t care anymore.
So for now im gone and with me out of the picture i assume the sanity shall return?
Goodbye to all, i will only come in to listen to the muskateers which i have planty of respect for.
Isn’t gold up today simply because a report came out that India bought more gold last month?
What happens once the initial bump as a result of that report is over?
Sticking with commodities, one of my favourite chartists (and one of the few that stayed long right from the beginning of 2014 when the 10-year treasury was at 3% and everyone thought it was going to 4% and instead went to 1.8%) is now shorting bonds (TLT) and long gold. And National Bank Financial notes that while energy commodities are a problem for Canada, outside that, an index of prices for shows cycle high prices for forestry products and agricultural products and even metals aren’t so bad.
This is a paragraph from BNNs morning news. Not sure who the technician is they are referring to but sure I will find out later today from another gold info source. I suspect multiple things are contributing to todays action.
I was just wondering whether people – the big boys – are simpy deciding that commodities look beaten down enough, especially when compared against the likes of biotech, tech, etc, etc., and so are moving into commodities for a pump and dump over the summer months.
Bob
Gary’s interview this morning is excellent; I suggest listening (or re-listening).
In my opinion, on 20March, the pattern of the gold price changed. Gary is predicting a stair stepping incline for gold , with a possible target at US$1300+.
I have mentioned this before in one of my posts, but something changed on (or around) 20 March. We had 7 straight days of price increase; subsequently, gold snapbacks have been pretty strong. I tend to disagree with the opinions concerning Head and Shoulders (H&S) Top and Bottom Reversal patterns
Brian
Haven’t listened to it yet – will do so after my tea.
So, what makes you think India or China or Russia might be slowing down their buying?
Yeah, Bob UK. My thinking is gold will close up high today to prevent Indians from buying too much. Maybe gold up on Monday, but down by Tuesday. Thursday’s initial claims might surge further, so they would want to prepare for it. Interesting how they took care of the gold surge in the aftermath of two bad job reports. I’m thinking this might be how they handle bad job reports for now on.
Buying a few bits of the TSX and its good commodity plays is not a bad idea seeing the TSX usually takes off at the end of a bull U.S market.
There is apparently no indication now that China and India are slowing their imports of ALL commodities.
I agree with your call on oil, Gary. During the drop in the price of oil over the last 6 months, the price seemed to hang at the $85, $75, $65, $55 and $45 levels. Only briefly at the $65 level for what its worth. $35 could be hit in a couple months near the end of the second quarter due to an over supply moment IMHO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?
s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08560056859
The silver stocks look good now, also only IMHO.
Dan (and others)
I am looking for one more silver miner to add to my portfolio. Are there any silver miners in Canada or US that you follow or think would warrant some investigation? I’ll do my own DD, I just seem to have run out of options. I hold Alexco (The mine is closed until $19 silver for profitability) and Scorpio (Prior US Silver mines profitable @ $18 silver). I am not really interested in Mexico at all.
Thanks in advance
Brian
My belief is Mandalay MND.TO is the best (mostly) silver miner.
Rarely mentioned on Kereport, but look it up.
I do not believe silver miners are due to rally significantly in the near term, however.
I am not familiar with Mandalay CFS, so thanks for the recommendation.
Brian, here are my top picks for silver companies:
Hecla, Endeavour, Fortuna, Great Panther, Silver Wheaton, Sierra Metals, Scorpio, and when things stabalize in the price more then I also like McEwen, Santacruz, Silivercrest, and I still own a little Aurcana and hope their problems are behind them.
Many of those have operations or properties in Mexico, because it is one of the best places in the world for Silver mining. Hard to escape some exposure to Mexico if you like silver mining. Even the majors like Coeur, Pan American Silver, and Silver Standard Resources have a balance in different areas, but some exposure to Mexico.
Amazingly…..off the top of my head even SLW is not nearly as profitable as Mandalay.
In general I like all the streaming and royalty companies.
I went and checked out Mandalay is in interesting jurisdictions, and is produced 154,810 “Gold equivalent” ounces for 2014. A big piece of that was in Silver, and they also have an Antimony credit, and another gold/copper exploration project. I didn’t have time to check out their cost of production and financials at this point.
Yes, I love the streaming companies as well and like the new Sprott Gold ETF (SGDM) because of the heavy weighting towards Franco Nevada, Royal Gold, and Silver Wheaton. They are not dependent on just 1 or 2 projects but have their assets spread out over the streaming agreements or royalty NSR with 50-100 projects each = much more stable.
The ones I follow all have a Mexico connection. I own Scorpio.
Richmont Mines
ipt,svm
But both are losing money right now I think.
asr,tmm are making money but they’re gold I believe.
Are there silver miners making money now?
I havnt run across one for awhile.
Have a look at this dismal story posted at Mineweb today bb.
The report they quote from suggests more than 50% of mines are now loss-making as they put it. Or in other words, they are not profitable at current prices. That only tells me another push down in price is coming to send the weak ones over the edge.
Price declines below the lows of late 2014 are a certainty in my view. This is going to get ugly for a lot of the weakest firms and most especially those who have no hedging on their books.
And lets not be surprised if this current relief from high oil prices does not last long enough for most to see any lasting benefits. Clearly, we are getting closer to the washout stage each day now. A break-down in gold prices still lies ahead that will without a doubt lead to bankruptcies and closures. And that day is closer than anyone here believes.
Many Gold Miners in Dire Straits Despite Costs Cuts.
http://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/many-gold-miners-in-dire-straits-despite-costs-cuts/
I read it, I understand you don’t follow Mickey Fulp, but he has been saying for some time closers are going to happen, he believes the industry needs it.
He calls them “zombie” miners.
He feels once it does we can get back to riding the bull.
No, I don’t know anything at all about Micky Fulp except I have heard his name mentioned here a few times. Gold is very precarious right now though and a sharp decline is coming.
I have another story here that suggests even more pressure will come to bear on prices.
The new Indian Government is outlining a plan to launch a program in May that will see the gold in India’s temples transferred to their vaults in exchange for interest payments. The idea is to melt that gold down and sell it inside India to Jewelers thus substantially reducing imports and correcting their trade imbalance.
This idea comes at an interesting time as gold production worldwide is now expected to start declining. Those declines should accelerate even further this year as more production goes off stream due to falling prices and the expected failures in the industry.
Here is the article:
India’s rich temples may open gold vaults for Modi
http://www.mineweb.com/news/gold/indias-rich-temples-may-open-gold-vaults-for-modi/
I guess the point is to just be very careful about what you are buying if you are bottom fishing for miners in the next while. If gold prices cannot recover then there will be carnage in the sector and some share issues will go to zero. And it is not just the Juniors who face risks anymore, but also those mines that are operational at steep losses.
I dint read the article, I read about their idea some months back.
Just means there are challenges to overcome for them.
A lot of people believe the gold is for the temples for financial and religious reasons.
But the idea has not gone away it seems.
Im not going to add anything for awhile, dangerous at this time I think, might be more profitable later too.
There are Gold/Silver mixed miners that are making money:
Klondex, for example:
4Q2104: Net income for the fourth quarter totaled $9.0 million or $0.07 per basic share.
4Q2014: 26,272 gold ounces and 400,706 silver ounces produced
Of course. The article noted more than 50% running at losses. Not 100%.
The junior and intermediate miners have more risk than the junior explorers in my opinion. When things are more stable in the gold and silver prices then the miners start looking more interesting.
Yes, I am watching Klondex and they have been on a tear and are being recommended by the Casey Research team and Frank Holmes. I know many here are not fans of theirs, but they do have some brains and also influence in the sector.
Shad, I’m a fan and a critic of Casey Research. They put out lots of worthwhile stuff but I don’t always agree in the “how to play it” department.
I’ve been a subscriber for many years and get 5 or 6 of their letters.
Yeah, I value a range of perspectives and nobody gets it right all the time anyway. What are your thoughts on Klondex or Pretium Resources that they are recommending?
I’ve always liked Klondex a lot and owned it when it had a market cap of probably one-tenth what it is now. I wish I kept it. I personally wouldn’t be a buyer here, but it does look like it’s going much higher from here straight ahead.
I don’t know PVG well but it’s chart and valuation shows less downside risk than Klondex right now. It’s too big and popular for me to get interested but I think it will do well.
Pretium is the only PM stock I own that is not a producing mine and mill (well, Alexco, but only shuttered for a couple more months, I think). Incredible grades – like Kirkland Lake but maybe 5 times the yearly ounces of gold, once in production.
Like Matthew, I wish I had bought Klondex back in Nov14 – a profitable company with today’s gold and silver prices is a rarity. Obviously not as much upside potential as Claude, Kirkland, Alexco, Scorpio, but I started ‘nibbling” recently. It’s a stable company with a reasonable P/E. Any upside would be the result of increase profits from higher gold prices.
By the way, I have an acquaintance who works in the Yukon with PM companies. He thinks that Alexco and Pretium are potential MONSTERS – some of the highest grades in the world (silver and gold, respectively) combined with massive resource estimates.
Whenever I see an article that talks about “profits” or “losses” I look for a definition close by. If there is no definition given, I usually dump the article.
I do,however, look very closely at company reports and data.
In my experience many company reports, including even audited ones, misrepresent the full truth.
Good thoughts Matthew, Bird, and CFS.
Matthew/Brian I’ve actually followed Pretium for a while now and am interested in taking a position in it if we do get a pull back in pricing in a month or so, and just wandered if you followed it. Brian, that is good to hear, and while I am a fan of Claude, Scorpio, and Alexco ….. I’m honestly not that familiar with Kirkland, so I’ll check that out as well.
Glad to hear you both thought Klondex was a good company (although maybe a little overbought here).
Good stuff!
Brian – Thanks for
Look at MND.TO
It even has 6% div.
Multi-metal, but mostly silver.
Will research, CFS. Thanks !
Must be half time…..the teams have left the field….still scoreless….
GAME CALLED ON THE ACCOUNT OF RAIN…………or was that tear duck crossing the road.
How can u no be looking at Mexico. Best silver mining area in world.
There I are indications that Peru and Argentina are realizing they almost killed their mining, and opinions are changing.
Yes, South America got greedy and stuck it to miners with taxes and permitting fees, right as he pricing dropped. As a result, most majors and mid-tiers shelved or cut back on projects and many jobs were lost. Now at the end of the bear market, where everything has been dead for 3-4 years, they are realizing they killed new investment into their countries.
Agreed Peter, and I made similar comments up above in my recommended silver blurb. Mexico is one of the centers for silver mining on the planet.
I am still stuck between JDST and NUGT! Also resisting the urge to short Russia.
Perhaps best to do neither then for now?
I got out of my JNUG position entered on Mon/Tue at a profit today Jason, but it was a wild ride. Good luck and see our commentary yesterday on this hedging process you are using. This is the risk of this system as opposed to a tiered system in a conversation Bird and I were having.
Big Al,
Thanks for allowing me to visit and post on your site these past several years.
This will be my last post, I promise!
I am sick of reading post made up of insults and name calling. People demanding that others be thrown off the site when they themselves are continually instigating and slinging crap at others. It’s difficult and tedious to ignore the posts as lately, they take up a majority of the site.
“Drooling class, arrogant, NPD (that one is a joke…look who’s labeling people with that Axis II personality disorder). I am a mental health clinician, and was amused at first with how freely people were throwing that label out there. It’s not funny or cute anymore.
Take a look in the mirror! None of us are perfect.
Good luck in future trading and financial stability! There are a great group of people who contribute to the information. I really have appreciated the guests and everyone who has shared their knowledge.
SD Marc, you hang in there! I have enjoyed your positive personality!
Jody D
+1. Best post on this thread. Sorry to see you go, Jody. It’s a shame seeing intelligent individuals taking shots at each other as if they were immature teenagers. Anyhow, I will be taking a little sabbatical as well. Too much negativity for my liking… and like my grandfather used to say-too much negativity puts a man early in the grave.
Jody, being the professional observer that you are, how have you missed the fact that Bird is the instigator? How has anyone missed that? I am far from perfect but each recent period of calm has ended because he can’t resist starting something. Is it really surprising that I or anyone would have a problem with someone who won’t quit with the attacks?
I have an idea. You stay and I’ll go. Just respond with “deal” and I won’t come back. But don’t be surprised when Bird makes sure that nothing changes.
You need a cup of tea too. Can I suggest mint? I hear it is quite relaxing.
Sorry to see you go Jody…..sorry for all the added confusion on my part…….Respectfully Jerry
Eric left because of Bird. Highly respectful poster here
never to return. Eric was very disturbed by Birds very
derogatory abusive foul behavior harrassing anyone
here that was bullish on gold.
To this day Matthew is a victim of this same behavior
for years as many others here had the same abusing
experience all from Bird.
Anyone who is upset should not be surprised this same
behavior still exists today only its possibly worse.
NO SURPRISE…THE WONDERFUL WORLD OF….BIRD.
I resent the fact he called everyone a …Clown today.
Isn’t that…SWELL !!!!!
I would have to agree with many of the above points……..j
Birdman, and The Boy Wonder(bb), Pinocchio and Jimney cricket.
A healthy debate without so much sniping is okay.
I have seen Bird and Matthew go at it,, both with valid points!
Just stick with the context of the conversation ( markets and politics ) and it will be fine.
The he said she said crybaby crap has gotta go..!
Agree to disagree, it’s okay….!
Well said Chartster.
Pretty obvious isn’t it? The problem is, Bird is incapable of executing that simple solution and has proven that over and over again for two years. Contrary to what some think, I have no problem at all with the bears. I don’t think even the good guys agree with me right now and that’s fine. Bird’s approach is not fine and never has been.
ditto
I’m also very bullish on gold. You can’t have thin skin in my opinion. If Birdman or any of you want to call me names please , go ahead. But also give me some reasons why you think this. I’m interested in all thoughts you have on gold and silver. I’m looking to stack some more of both. I think I should have pulled the trigger yesterday but I’m hoping for a drop back to 1190 gold and 1595 silver. If not I believe Gary thinks May.
What I meant to say is, Bird and Matthew and many others on this site I agree with and disagree with, all the time. But without the conversation, I learn nada..
The debate is healthy. It should be in a way that lays out a case. ( not to be mistaken for a four page ramble.. ) And with respect.
Well said again.
As long as points are made , I think its easy to bypass the name calling. Besides both are very intelligent and have impressive vocabularies, the weakest part of their comments are the name calling. Sooner or later they will figure out that trash talking is a young mans game, mainly because many youths lack intelligence and vocabularies.
gregd, what you don’t realize is that bb and birdman are a tag team, they get their kicks from playing fools. You certainly don’t want to be duped or do you? DT
That’s right, DT, who needs it? It doesn’t matter how much I try to mind my own business, Bird will come along with his dumb sarcastic remarks, assumptions and attempts to put words in my mouth. And as long as he doesn’t call me names, many can’t figure out that what he’s doing is still not right. That’s pretty basic thinking. I would be happy if ALL he did was call me names, but what he does is much worse.
People who are ok with his ways are just plain wrong in my book. What they’re really saying is that Bird should just keep doing what he’s doing and I should just get over it.
I think society has been brainwashed to think that anger is never ok. Well that is dead wrong and against nature. To me, it is wrong to NOT get angry when you should.
My apologies to you Matthew. Although the things you talked about don’t bother me in the least I made a wrong assumption that they shouldn’t bother you.
We are all different. Perhaps having four brothers, who always tried to humiliate and embarrass me made me immune to it. Best of luck to you.
No apology necessary but I do appreciate it. I would be much more in line with your views if I had much more time every day and only visited this site for entertainment.
Best of luck to you too.
DT,
The fact is, Bird has very good market analysis, and so do some that oppose him. There is a happy, or common medium somewhere..
All I’m saying is the sniping and disrespect has to go.
Maybe a realization is in order. Heh heh
Hi, I’m Chartster, and I’m a gold bearaholic. I’m not willing to stop until the washout is complete and ” I believe ” the bottom is In!
Chartster, the sniping and disrespect all starts with him. He’s the second person here to use the F word in anger and the second to talk about someone’s wife to piss them off. The first troll to do those things hasn’t been here in years, and just might be Birdman for all we know.
Bottom line: I can leave him alone but he refuses to do the same for any length of time.
Almost every daily cycle decline in any asset loses the 50 DMA for more than 1 day and crashed the lower BB. Why would this cycle in gold be any different? It just looks like a half cycle low with a longer 1st daily cycle coming, being a new intermediate cycle.
Bearaholic on gold? How can you think that there’s going to be a washout in gold and silver? I would think the safer bet would be a washout in the markets. But then again I don’t understand the charts like you people do, although I try. Like today, India starts buying more gold and that makes the gold charts change.
To me it seems that charts work best in calm waters, not to hot and not to cold. Charts depend on human nature but don’t you think human nature changes after what the markets and the fed has done since 08?
Matthew,
I know exactly what you are saying, and agree.
James,
From what I’m researching on the cycle theory ( Gann ) it looks like the intermediate cycle is from early May to mid May.
It’s an ongoing research, but I’m getting closer ( unless I’m getting further away.. )
The real deal for me is , if gold closes above 1224, and the indicators look good, I’ll ride the wave up for a bit. The washout will just be in the fall if that happens. As I’m certain 1130 was not the bottom
The technicals on gold are very interesting at present. I wouldn’t be surprised if we move a little down the first of next week and then start to move higher. A lot of the PM stocks are suggesting just a little retrenchment but nothing big. The weekly for gold looks particularly interesting as relates to momentum. By the way both Klondex and Pretium’s technicals look promising over time at this point. A stock I’ve been mentioning for awhile (Nordic American Tanker) continues to hold its’ own. I’m hoping for some pullback in Claude so I can add again in the future. I won’t be chasing it here___not investment advice.
Doc,
The BBands and 50 MA look really weak to me regarding metals and metal stocks. But I certainly would like your take.
Thanks
Chartster, which are you referring to—-daily, weekly, or monthly?
The weekly and daily. But the monthly BB on GDXJ looks ominous.
Also, on the daily GDXJ chart, the 50DMA looks very weak.
The monthly portends a slow drift down which I wouldn’t be surprised about. The weekly seems to agree with the monthly interpretation. The daily looks like it might move somewhat higher in the near term and then meet resistance at the 50 day MA. Like I’ve noted many times in the past, the odds for a significant move in the metals and stocks are best in 2016. We may get an earlier surprise short term move up (fall season) but I still stick with 2016 for a number of technical reasons.
I am willing to wait for higher pm prices if it means we see a bunch of mines close and production shut down. Many small mines have shut down but I want to see a couple major shut down. Higher pm prices with tightened supply is my ideal situation. I keep coming across companies that I still can’t beleive are still going. T.sas is the latest. Thought they would have shut things down but some how the are still treading along. A lot of small shut downs which is good but we need something like detour to go belly up to get this party started.
The reason I like the early junior explores so much is the ones with really great potential can keep themselves afloat very easily by going on life support while I accumulate for pennies and when thing kick back up the returns will be insane. Going on life support and realizing insane returns is not an option for majors. I will only tell you my favourites when I have stopped accumulating. You know one cause keep mentioning it hear.
I couldn’t agree more. I’m doing the same thing with a couple of them.
Gregd,
It’s more of a cycle deal and a restructuring of the financial system that makes me think gold will drop and stocks go up. According to my research gold should drop hard really soon. And the stocks should start a big rally over the summer.
Socks should start the major downturn in the fall tho. And gold should really pick up steam at that point. But hey, I could be wrong
Thanks for your thoughts. So you don’t buy the sell in May crap? That’s a wife’s tale thing I think.
Don’t believe me? Just ask him for his P&L.
You visit mines that you invest in why are you refusing to do diligence on the people you promote?? Gary is a fraud.