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A bubble soon to burst in the conventional markets?

Big Al
April 13, 2015
The following article is courtesy of Newsmax. For those of you who have missed it, we are posting it again here.
You can add economic analyst Jesse Colombo to the list of those who think the stock market has entered bubble territory.

While many would put the start date of the bubble at 2009, he actually says what the stock market is experiencing is just a wave of the bubble that started in the mid-1990s.

And what’s going to burst the bubble?

It will end “when the very fuel behind it is removed, which is record low interest rates,” he writes in an article for Forbes. The Federal Reserve has kept its federal funds rate target at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

Colombo sees two ways in which rising rates can pop the bubble.

  • “After several more years of the bubble-driven economic recovery, the Fed has a ‘Mission Accomplished’ moment and eventually increases the fed funds rate too high, creating a hard landing that pops the post-2009 bubbles,” he says. Many economists expect the central bank to begin raising rates in September.
  • “The ballooning and unsustainable amount of government and corporate bond market debt eventually causes investors to jettison bonds en masse, which leads to much higher interest rates.”

Federal government debt now totals $18 trillion, about equal to annual GDP.

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Meanwhile, as stocks soar around the world, the U.S. market stagnates. The S&P 500 index climbed just 1.6 percent so far this year, the worst performance of any major market index for the period.

The trend is ironic, given that the U.S. economy is in better shape than are most of those overseas. But U.S. stocks have suffered to some extent because of their own six-year rally that has seen the S&P 500 triple.

That has made investors concerned about valuations. The S&P 500 carried a trailing price-earnings ratio of 20.25 as of April 2, up from 17.69 a year ago, according to Birinyi Associates.

And while the U.S. economy is stronger than those overseas are, it slowed down in the last six months. Growth totaled only 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, and many economists predict it shrank much further in the first quarter.

“I would definitely say investors should take some money off of U.S. large caps and maybe allocate some more into international sectors, particularly Europe and Japan,” Erin Gibbs, equity chief investment officer at S&P Capital IQ, tells CNBC.

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Discussion
11 Comments
    CFS
    Apr 13, 2015 13:55 AM

    Wow!
    If the big boys don’t US stocks, they’ll buy foreign ones.
    And if the stockmarket doesn’t go down, it’ll go up. Maybe.

    (Sarcasm off)

      Apr 13, 2015 13:30 AM

      It is an interesting article that points out that their may be a re-balancing of portfolios out of US stocks and into foreign stocks like Europe and Japan. It will be interesting to see if emerging markets make a comeback, with their exports boosted with the rising dollar.

      As for the Conventional stock market, it is really just been stuck in a range, which has many postulating it is putting in a topping pattern. I just don’t believe we’ve put in the blow off top needed for the 7 year bull to be over, but feel we get it this year (September time frame).

      One thing I am watching is the Russell 2000 and the small cap stocks blaze higher and if this accelerates further, then we are getting close. The indicator will be when the Russell 2000 goes parabolic, and corrects first, then the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq will follow with a 20% correction.

        Apr 13, 2015 13:47 AM

        I agree that we are probably not there yet. Here is an interesting question, if Europe cleans up its act and gets stronger economically will that be the catalyst for capital shifting to over there? It very well could. Stop and think about it. That could be a positive impact on Greece leaving, couldn’t it!

          Apr 13, 2015 13:24 PM

          I thought Michael Belkin had some interesting thoughts along those same lines on the weekend show.

          There are others that see opportunity in Russian stocks, and some touting that now is the time to pick up emerging markets.

          If you add into the concerns about earnings for Multi-nationals (punished by the strong dollar), issues that we haven’t really see the ramifications for in the oil patch (and the financial institutions that financed the US and Canadian oil bubble), and the fact that things are looking more attractive overseas, then this could very well be what starts the correction in the general markets later this year.

    CFS
    Apr 13, 2015 13:07 AM

    Seriously:

    Greece is going to go belly up.
    OK, So it didn’t on April 9, but Germany WILL NOT lend it anymore money.
    Russia is bargaining hardball to get the most access to Greek ports AND military bases. It may come up with money and may not.
    Either way, there is no way that Europe will tolerate Russian bases inside the NATO alliance in my opinion, so the EU will find a way to kick Greece out.
    The consequence of that, is that money will move to US and BRICs.
    That implies continued upward movement in US stocks.

      Apr 13, 2015 13:50 AM

      For the time being, CFS

      Apr 13, 2015 13:49 AM

      Thank you CFS. I will print this article out and read it.

      Best

      Apr 13, 2015 13:03 PM

      Let’s see what the ECB decides on the 15th CFS. That is a key date in the decision on further funding.

    CFS
    Apr 13, 2015 13:13 AM
    CFS
    Apr 13, 2015 13:29 AM

    A further view:
    https://youtu.be/385ymxhVQEM
    From Jim Willie.