Gary and Chris talk about the overnight reversals in some markets
Gold, the U.S. Dollar and the euro all sharply reversed overseas moves.
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Thanks Gary, sounds like a playable bounce on the stock side IMHO
Only took a few hours for gary to be wrong about the dollar.
CFS,
My view on the dollar has been the same for the last couple of months. It needs to deliver a counter tredn correction. You appear to be a day trader trying to pick intraday moves.
Look at the dollar on an hourly chart though CFS. It took a dip at a perfect place.
I’ll be patient and wait a few days but believe there will be a pullback in the USD.
The stocks I talk about are the PM stocks.
It will be if one can have to patience to wait however long it takes for the stock market to deliver an intermediate degree correction. Once it does a trader can make his entire year in the 6 to 8 weeks coming out of an intermediate bottom. Some aggressive traders made 400% coming out of the Oct. bottom.
Gary, do you have a target bottom for an intermediate correction? I mean, how much of a decline do you think is in the cards on a cycles basis?
I keep thinking back to 2010′
Holy Crow Al….a 1000 point drop? Now that would really be a bloodbath. Maybe I don’t understand Gary’s system well enough. Is that the kind of drop he is thinking when he says “intermediate decline”?
I’m thinking maybe to 92ish on the dollar before the next leg up begins.
Sorry about that Gary…I was reading the S&P chart and not thinking about the dollar when I left that post. Should have mentioned that but I am really distracted tonight. We got another dog for the place. Cute little guy about 6 or 8 weeks weeks old and he’s been chewing on my ankles all night while I type! Just lost my concentration is all.
What kind of pooch?
Fat and fluffy. It might be a new breed. Who the heck knows. None of the dogs have papers over here. I had a pair of Shepherds on order but they turned out to be so aggressive I figured I could not afford the risk. Not with the kids anyway. So now I have a fat fluffy dog with a great personality and we adore the little guy.
You guys have kids?
No Al, but its a young community. Median age is something like 16 years so half the population is younger than that. The neighborhood is over run with children. People here still have large families too. Especially in the rural areas. It’s no place for dangerous dogs. That would be pretty irresponsible on my part.
Good thoughts Gary. It will be interesting to wait for that intermediate correction in the general markets and play the blow off move higher when that does happen.
From the Dubai Precious Metals Conference:
Global gold production is set to peak in 2015 at a record level before gradually decreasing from 2016, Firstgold International’s Mahendra Naik told delegates.
The 20-year average development time on mines is expected to come to fruition this year following peak deposit discoveries in the mid 1990s, he said.
In 2014, overall mining production grew two percent to 3,114 tonnes, the World Gold Council said, the highest number on record so far.
But limited discoveries of new deposits in the last decade suggested as reversal of this trend after 2015, Naik predicted. As well, miners are deferring expansions or the start-up of new mines due to the current gold price, which at around $1,200 per ounce is down nearly 40 percent on its 2011 peak of $1,921.
Production is outpacing reserve replacements, Naik said, with only 0.5 ounces discovered for every ounce produced. Miners are instead more focused on cost containment, optimising cash flows and preserving liquidity than production growth.
I wonder if the price will start to move up before the production peaks as a forward indicator of a coming drop in production. It is hard to say “shortage” because any shortage just means a rise in price. The proper amount always comes out of the ground IMHO.
Yes, agreed CFS. The majors have not been doing much exploration, and many projects are on hold or at least curtailed due to the current price of PMs and, in addition, the low Base Metal credits.
At the same time, much of the Gold in the West has transferred out of ETFs, bullion, and scrap supplies and found its way over into the East. When a serious interest in the West does come back into the PM space, then there will be limited supply, and the mines are slow moving animals at permitting, drilling, and proving out new reserves.
This means the best way for the Majors to acquire more reserves will be to take over smaller miners and the best exploration plays with proved up resources in PEAs or preferably in completed Feasibility Studies. If there is a supply crunch down the road, and prices do rise, then some of these takeover plays could be a considerable return on investment.
Good luck to all.
Worth taking a look at the big banks’ exposure:
http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq414.pdf
On another topic, I find this brilliant:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14/banks-across-europe-pay-borrowers-buy-homes
Best to all,
LPG
http://nypost.com/2015/04/13/isis-threatens-another-911-style-attack-on-social-media/
Other actions by the Islamic Scum include:
Iraq has exhumed the remains of 164 people believed to have been massacred by Islamic State jihadists from mass graves in Tikrit, the human rights ministry has said.
“Search teams have discovered the remains of 164 (victims) so far in four mass graves during work over the past week,” ministry spokesman Kamel Amin told AFP.
He said documents and mobile phones that have been found indicate the dead are victims of the infamous Speicher massacre, named for the military base near which up to 1,700 mostly Shiite recruits were abducted by the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group last year.
Nice people, huh!
Its just nuts how any bunch of angry guys with automatic rifles and Toyota 4X4’s can start a land war these days. They are not even a country yet they dominate the news! So is that the future? All you need is a bad attitude, a bunch of rope and bullets and a good running Hilux….and your in the war business?
Crazy is as crazy does.
Not to mention a bit of training and weaponry provided for by the cia
And some good old fashioned religious brainwashing. Nothing ever changes.
The US general stock market is too volatile IMO, but China keeps on going:
e.g. China A-Shares as in symbol ASHR
I think one or other will take all the others down shortly. I am happy to wait for the buying opportunity that Gary talks about.
A very interesting read Professor, The New Ambition.
Meanwhile as The Big Zero continues to decimate the US military, China grows:
http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20150413000123&cid=1101&MainCatID=0
If you want a war with China you should have had it 15 years or so ago and not got us all involved in a pointless, frustrated, draining, weapon destroying, morale knackering conflict with a bunch of hill farmers and other assorted turban headed tribesmen.
Know which wars to fight and which ones to walk away from – Bush’s legacy is disasterous for the West for years, probably decades, to come.
“Hey, we got bogged down in Vietnam so let’s go repeat it in Afghanistan and Iraq!” seemed to be the order of the day in Bush”s Whitehouse.
A lot of folks do agree with you Bob UK
Yep, professor, and that does disturb me!
I’m with you on the dollar, Gary. And I agree with your view on the Euro today posting what sure looks like a double bottom. But you have got to admit it is a very lonely call for those of us who feel that way and with bullish sentiment as high as it is for the buck the deck looks stacked against the contrarians.
Not that my opinion has changed one iota. As you know I have been looking for double tops / bottoms in the dollar and euro for some time. The euro sure looks to be telling us we are there and a reversal is now going to be in play. Cheers man.
Bought some dips today adding apple, intel, msft. Holding XOP long term and waiting for an oil breakout.
Just sold my Intel shares in the aftermarket excitement at 32.50 for a nice 3+% gain. This time I had the balls to hold on for earnings. I normally sell before earnings but today I bought back my shares.
Vantage drilling (VTG) went up 23% yesterday on 5x the normal volume.
With a small but probably the most advanced fleet of jackup and drillships they are a buyout target for the big drillers. Perhaps this surge yesterday is due to something is in the pipeline.
This was a 2 dollar stock just last year (jumped up to 40cents yesterday).
Thanks for the heads up Biggus. I’ll check out Vantage Drilling.
I was surprised to see silver down yesterday and Fresnillo up. Same thing happened this morning with Fresnillo up.
It seems to be the miner of choice of the London City boys when metals are about to go up IMPO.