Chris and Big Al opine on valuations and China
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
All of this debt is quite completely insane and one day there is going to be a terrible reckoning.
Things are going to become very difficult and will be very unpleasant. People are not going to like it. I suggest they watch this
Dang nab it! That should have been
ONLY one in a million get it.
according to zerohedge…..:)
Great conversation……THERE WAS A REASON WHY THE FOUNDING FATHERS WERE SCARRED S……..LESS WITH CENTRAL BANKERS AND CON-ARTIISTS LIKE THEM.
Al and Chris,
That was a superb daily snippet on China. I really enjoy Chris T’s macro, global, geopolitical views on economics and just general thoughts.
China is not just the 800 pound gorilla in the room. That country is literally the 8,000 lbs global gorilla that will have far far reaching ramifications as global events play out.
When China eventually has its over indebted “come to Jesus” moment in the future. If you think the job and commodity landscape is in the tank now today, then you better buckle to hell up because that will be your foxhole moment when even the financial/spiritual atheist’s of the world will pry to a higher power.
Not to be over dramatic, but the cascading commodity supply/demand damage and its follow-on effect could be on a whole other level of the significance meter.
Mother Nature will not be denied from correcting the debt saturated mal-investments globally.
V
Agreed. Good thoughts on China and its economy.
Couldn’t have said that better myself, Vortex
supplement to China commentary:
Housing market , for second home , down payment goes from 60% down payment, to 40%down payment. More debt coming in the system.
There is and has been for decades, a big interest in Chinese demand for real estate on the West Coast of the US and Canada for the attractive real estate and financial requirements versus what China demands. That is a big drop from 60% down to 40% though, so they must be pushing for home ownership to increase in a major way.
yes, they like west coast, because it is away from WASHINGTON DC., and those idiots in DC., except Pelosi and Reed(which he go bye, bye)
Good point, Frank
thank you Mr. OWL, you are wise man.
I can do nothing more that give it my best shot Moscow Frank!
And Frank, the West coast is one heck of a lot more relaxing.
Don’t get me wrong, by the way, I love the East Coast!
Even Florida….my oh my it is so relaxing if you have air conditioning.
Shad.,please note I said “second” home. This might be in line with investment , inlieu of shelter home ownership. Just like there are vacant cities across China.
Yes, I see that now, and misunderstood at first. Yes, lowering the down-payment on second home would be for investment properties and vacation homes.
By the way Frank from moscow….. you wouldn’t happen to be J…..The Long……OOTB would ya?
You seem to know a lot about real estate and called Big Al….Mr. Owl. That seems very Out Of The Box 🙂
Thanks for the observation, Gold to the Quadrillion!
:)…………FOOTB
🙂
Frank…..The Long…..OOTB!
that be FOOT LONG OOTB…….
I am in China now and the country looks normal. It does not seems it is in trouble at all.
I AGREE Lawrence ! China is ok ! Day don’t wond to see A TOTAL WORLD DERIVATIVE MANIPULATION MARKETS ! ( ALL WORLD ) !
So these charts (see link below) in an article from Zerohedge today are all wrong?
They detail Retail sales, Consumer sentiment, GDP growth, Auto sales, Fixed asset investment, Industrial production, Home prices and Rail freight all rolled into an economic indicator called the “China Real Economic Activity Index”.
And that index shows real growth is closer to 1.6% as opposed to the 7% government claims.
I think the problem here is that numbers coming out of China regarding growth are massaged or exaggerated as many have recently asserted. We know for example when we compare trade data with China’s major partners that the numbers posted do not align with what Chinese claims are.
Of course, none of us knows the facts if they are not being transparent. We can only question the data and conclude somebody is not telling the truth about their economic activity.
China’s True Economic Growth Rate: 1.6%
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/chinas-true-economic-growth-rate-16
YES ! Reality is no MORE ! Totaly wrong and manipulated ! Day know what day downing don’t worry ! TV riches and hidden misery ! http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/meet-mario-draghis-attacker-her-own-words
🙂 draghis need more attackers,
That was an interesting video, Frank. I only wish that I could understand what they were saying!
draghi say.,,,I thought I already paid you for jumping out of my birthday cake.
Good post…many China-watchers have pointed out things like this…flagging imports and exports alike…stagnant utility demand…and a lot more.
Thanks Chris. But the next question we need to ask is this…..If it’s true that Chinese growth is below 2% and assuming that is a hard landing…then why are we not yet seeing any repercussions around the world?
Right?
The only reason most of us would care about what happens in China is because there is a widespread assumption a hard landing there will have impacts on stocks we buy and own or that the US economy itself would suffer a slowdown as a result.
Otherwise its not really much of a concern back home.
I think China (wealthy Chinese) are investing their debt in smart multi national places (real estate, mines, utilities, diverse essential business) that they are going to be just fine. I am all for taking on cheap debt as long as it is invest responsibly. China has been investing all over the place and in what I think are the safest and smartest types of investments. I do not see the issue with China. I think the issue lies in the developed nations living unsustainably and investing money in stupid places.
Something from Financialsense over the WE: Ralph Acampora interview.
A must listen IMHO.
It starts at 14mn for about 15mn long – discussing US mkets, rotation, rates cycles, gold, TA vs Fundamental analysis…
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2015-0411-1.mp3
Enjoy – hopefully.
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG