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We discuss the conventional markets and the gold markets with LPG

Big Al
April 15, 2015

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Discussion
79 Comments
    LPG
    Apr 15, 2015 15:27 PM

    To clarify a point:
    When @ 2mn58sec I said “when I look at the precious metals” I MEANT “precious metal STOCKS/COMPANIES”.
    Word omitted… My apologies but hope this clarifies.

    Best to all and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

      Apr 15, 2015 15:30 PM

      Good thoughts today LPG as usual. Thanks for bringing him on to do a daily editorial AL. We appreciate the information and perspectives.

        Apr 15, 2015 15:33 PM

        We had some good thoughts on Klondex on Al/Docs editorial earlier, and I agree.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:42 PM

    LPG,
    You are spot on……invest, hang on and sit tight….the risk reward relationship greatly favors us…like I have said if you are not on margin you dont have a problem…if you can hang on you will be rewarded for your patience…if this was easy for the AVERAGE person…i would question my underlying premise. Doing the right thing takes cash flow, guts and conviction…..in that order!

    Apr 15, 2015 15:10 PM

    I am looking for silver to go sub 16 dollars tomorrow.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:37 PM

      I would bet against that. I am not a technician but would still take that bet.

        Apr 15, 2015 15:03 PM

        My primary basis for betting against you is the strength it should late in the day. I suspect this momentum will continue into tomorrow. I may fizzle out tomorrow but not enough to break 16.

          Apr 15, 2015 15:25 PM

          OK. Not long to wait to find out. I might eat Crow pie tomorrow!

            Apr 15, 2015 15:34 PM

            Never know, Bird

      Apr 15, 2015 15:49 PM

      Let’s see, Bird!

      Apr 16, 2015 16:51 AM

      looks like silver is not sub 16 usd,

        Apr 16, 2015 16:52 AM

        silver is cheep……..

        Apr 16, 2015 16:49 AM

        Mmmmm Crow pie……on the other hand Frank, we did get a 35 cent drop in silver after the opening bell. That was a really big move and it fell all the way to 16.10 so maybe call this a win for being correct that a drop was coming…..but a loss of face because it didn’t go that extra 10 cents.

        Hey, the day is not over yet. It’s not even noon NY time yet.

          Apr 16, 2015 16:56 AM

          I would count anything out when it comes to short term fluctuations in precious metals.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:26 PM

    Man! The Canadian dollar is smoking hot today. Wow! It just will not stop. Up up and away baby!

      Apr 15, 2015 15:47 PM

      Bird, 1.23 is smoking hot?

        Apr 15, 2015 15:49 PM

        That was a big move by any standard.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:27 PM

    The 30 year is turning down tomorrow. Bad news for gold.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:58 PM

      My message to you on another forum today.

      On April 15, 2015 at 9:46 pm,
      HEAVYHITTER says:
      HA….Instead of all this hocus pocus long commentary
      that clearly leaves the reader with not much to feel
      comfortable with and I will beg to differ here. Yes, I want
      to prove a point because gold will make a big move first
      few days next week and will remain in a positive trend with
      volatility until the middle of June.

      The general markets ..The Spoos will get hammered first few
      days of next week.

      These are accurate market calls and have 90 percent probability
      or much higher. Being conservative.

      I can guarantee everytime my market calls will be much more
      accurate and superior to yours Bird. Your market calls are nothing
      to get excited about. Not only that they are not wishy washy like
      most are.

      You think I might be not very proactive with the markets
      and lack expertise to be the best in the business.

      Just because I don’t post my proprietary information and its
      my choice whether I share it here. I won’t either not with the
      way things are going.

      Write it down. By the middle of next week big moves are coming
      per my comments above.

      No, I’m not posting any longer. Why, because most of all the egos
      here and hocus pocus long commentary doesn’t prove you know
      all that much. If anything !!! That’s my point. My accurate market
      calls will prove it next week. Without the hocus pocus and feeling
      uncomfortable. Long commentaries that won’t make money
      or move these markets.

      Keep posting and typing away. I’m living by the cash register.

      CHA CHING $$$$ ..BYE !!!!!!!!!!

        Apr 15, 2015 15:36 PM

        On April 15, 2015 at 10:33 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Going to void The Spoos short for next week.
        Until further notice. Probably not. Will not be
        posting.

        Gold will definitely start moving up from now
        into next week. Postive trend into mid June.
        With volatility. ..

        Cha Ching $$$$$ Cha Ching $$$$

      Apr 16, 2015 16:52 AM

      Annnddddd…the 30 year is down 1/2 percent this am. So yes, I am correct. Thanks Frank.

        Apr 16, 2015 16:59 AM

        You are not correct. We have till Wednesday.

        Keep stuttering, typing, posting because its
        not over. Got to get back to my cash cow.

        Cha..Cha…Cha.Cha..CHING $$$$$$$$$$$$$$

        Apr 16, 2015 16:14 AM

        sory birdman, comment made to HH concerning gold. but , me think bonds stinky

          Apr 16, 2015 16:43 AM

          Bird has already conceded that he needs a new drawing board.

          Didn’t have to wait till Wednesday after all.

          Bird was wrong again. No, holy grail. Take note. All these false
          claims. Delete this one too Big AL. Promoter of deception is not
          appreciated. He is no guru…sorry. hope that doesn’t ruin your day.

          1000 gold..LOL..LOL..LOL… not in the next 3 months..if ever.

          On April 16, 2015 at 10:39 am,
          Birdman says:
          Good stuff Shad. I am always going back to the drawing board. No shame in that at all because the key is flexibility and not allowing ourselves to be pinned down to an idea that may or may not work. This is all a learning experience right to the very end anyways. I mean, nobody has all the answers and its why the markets are almost more art than science. For me, I find that writing about the markets clears my head and helps me channel the ideas that work best. Its when I stop writing that I get plugged and make mistakes so I really value what others are talking about and suggesting. Helps keep me on track when I might be going off the road!

            Apr 16, 2015 16:27 PM

            I have absolutely no idea who you mean by “promoter of deception”

            Maybe you could just say you disagree. Is that hard to do?

            Apr 16, 2015 16:16 PM

            I disagree a Big AL and especially with overwhelming support
            for all his commentaries and disturbances on the boards.

            None of us are perfect but it’s quite obvious a lot of posters have
            been insulted for this display you are reflecting in your comments
            totally in favor of him without good merit. He’s not respectful in high
            regard that’s for sure. He has clearly missed in this area of characteristics.

            So, why the overwhelming support by you in his favor. Maybe you are
            impressed by his long commentaries and his higher intellect vocabulary
            style. Unfortunately, it does not mean he is correct in his views. I will stop
            there because I could really whale on this guy and will make every attempt
            to keep it as polite as I can without missing the point.

            The boards needed a clean up job regardless but not at the expense of
            insulting fellow respectful posters here to entertain Birds agenda.

            An apology is in order or at least a welcome back to all fellow posters
            who should not be victims of anyone else’s behavior including me.
            I realize I’m no angel.

            Your the boss Big AL and let your conscious be your own guide.

            Thank you for listening and please take good care of yourself.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:52 PM

            I certainly will Heavy. You seem like a really bright individual who is letting he emotions get away from him. Don’t do that man, as it is not a win-win situation.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:54 PM

            You could be correct Big AL. Lets just say this, that we are
            all human and have feelings. Compassion for others is not
            considered by most to be disturbing. Then again, the world
            can be so twisted in their philosophies anything is accepted
            today.

            How would you feel if posters had many comments on all the
            boards completely bashing your sponsors (gold mining companies)
            for investment and making a mockery of any type of positive
            thought to investing in these companies. Sure would be a negative
            impact on business here with sponsors discovering this is not
            what they signed up for.

            My point is using the above as an example because it impacts you.
            Bird has no interest in gold. He will very rarely have any positive
            comments on the board and is against gold as an asset or gold
            miners each and every one of them. He has self satisfaction of
            fear mongering anyone and discouraging gold investment. He is
            very crafty the way he has just enough positive comments just
            to get by. This has been the agenda for years here.

            If you don’t go along with his permanent bear views he will
            eventually find ways to disrespect and demoralize the gold
            investors who post here.

            Could you imagine if many or just enough to destroy the site
            where like him. How about bashing all your sponsors. Just
            enough could really affect business.

            My message is put the shoe on the other foot. Gold investors
            who post here are frustrated, disgusted and given up in some
            cases.

            If you would be against and find it unacceptable to have people
            in here bashing your sponsors you should definitely find compassion
            for the gold investors who post.

            If someone who only posts negative opinions on gold most of the time
            you must question what are they doing here.

            To encourage it is like a shot in the foot to all of us. No question, this
            is what’s transpiring. To boot, you almost or very close to handing out
            a gold metal to him. For what, being the most mannered respectful
            poster 3 years in a row now.

            At least find neutrality with all contributing posters. As it stands it’s
            very disturbing and many now are on the defensive.

            At least stand for what’s right and treat everyone equal. Keep the
            respect without losing anyone who contributes their opinions on
            the boards.

            Just suggestions and your the boss Big AL. Gold investors need to
            to be treated fairly though. See what you can do. I’m sure you will
            make the necessary decisions. Again, thanks for listening. Take it
            easy too.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:43 PM

            I think we all understand one another Big AL. This is now
            settled and we will now move forward in a respectful manner.

            The positioning for all of us is not to provoke, harrass, insult,
            make false accusations or anything derogatory that could
            be unsettling to all fellow posters. To avoid engaging in a
            defensive manner but it’s an option depending on the nature
            of the provoking insult etc. Doc advised to ignore these comments
            but much easier said than done. Great advise but will it succeed.
            We can make every effort.

            With that being understood and agreed upon everyone that left
            should return to normal commentary and posting. Thought this
            may help piece everyone back together. Not sure but making
            the attempt.

            I will mention fellow posters by name to return who do the most
            commentary first. Forgive me if I miss anyone please. Everyone
            should return at your own Will. Here are the names of fellow posters :

            MATTHEW
            GLEN
            JERRY
            REVEREND ANDREW
            DICK TRACY
            IRISH TONY
            DAVE

            I know I missed maybe several but I apologize and if you don’t want to
            return whatever the case maybe its understandable. Like I said just making
            the efforts to help make everything whole again. Lots of damage was done
            and I was caught in the crossfire as well.

            Thank you and wish everyone the best.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:20 PM

            Need some cheering up….no frills airline.

            Still funny after all these years.

            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5MqBEeDkd8

      Apr 16, 2015 16:26 PM

      SKI has a double sell signal in gold Bird

    LPG
    Apr 15, 2015 15:18 PM

    On a non-related topic… here’s something on Hillary’s trip to “Everyday Iowan”.
    I found this post nicely done (was initially mentioned on Zerohedge).

    http://www.ijreview.com/2015/04/296973-everyday-iowan-close-got-hillary-clinton-today/

    Best to all,

    LPG

      Apr 15, 2015 15:39 PM

      That is just great. Everyone needs to read it!

    LPG
    Apr 15, 2015 15:00 PM

    Something from Financialsense over the WE: Ralph Acampora interview. (I will likely repost this somewhere else on Kereport)

    It starts at 14mn for about 15mn long – discussing US mkets, rotation, rates cycles, gold, TA vs Fundamental analysis…

    http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2015-0411-1.mp3

    Enjoy – a must listen IMHO.

    GL to all investing/trading.

    LPG

    Apr 15, 2015 15:13 PM

    Birdman how far do you think gold and silver will go? I’m looking to get more of both.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:38 PM

      I am still on for another leg down in metals. This month. That’s me though. Keep in mind some of the miners are indicating otherwise and contradict my viewpoints. But its okay if gold and miners diverge in direction from time to time.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:52 PM

      Also Greg, I am more than prepared to make a 180 on my gold outlook if it really starts to respond to this move in the Canadian dollar that is happening simultaneous to the Euro going back up. We cannot ever allow ourselves to get locked into any position if there are major changes that indicate otherwise. Got to roll with the punches as they say. There will always be someone out there to criticize and say “well you said this or that before” and blah blah blah now you are contradicting yourself. Those types are not flexible thinkers. They cannot understand that markets are dynamic and change can be rapid. We also need to change with the market when it warrants, not get boxed in by rigid positions.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:41 PM

    I value your opinion as I do others and understand your logic. So if you want to explain It would be appreciated.

      Apr 16, 2015 16:04 AM

      The tone of the Canadian dollar could change the game entirely, Greg. So my bearish opinions on gold of the past weeks might not be worth snot right now. We will just have to watch as this unfolds. .

    Apr 15, 2015 15:55 PM

    Thanks for opinions, LPG… Hope I can stay put that long and have enough capital and gut to deploy through the next 5 years.

    LPG
    Apr 16, 2015 16:14 AM

    Hello Genesys,

    Long time – if I am not mistaken – so I hope all’s well with you.

    I hope you will do fine in the next 5 years and wish you all the best in this regard.

    Let’s not forget when deploying capital below estimated value: the lower, the scarier but the better…

    I also kind of omitted to mention in the interview why, personally, I also appreciate investing in the metals – not the stocks, the metals.
    It is that 1) they are not anyone else’s liability, and 2) probably equally importantly, they are stored OUTSIDE of the banking system (at least in my case). And I personally feel “good” about the latter point.

    I do understand the speculative aspect of the metals for some of us, but to me, for this speculative angle, I “prefer” to play the PM stocks/equities.

    GL to you investing/trading and best to all,

    LPG

      Apr 16, 2015 16:01 AM

      That is sound advice LPG. The metals are more of an insurance against central banking policy, and the miners are more of a speculative high risk/ high reward play.

        Apr 16, 2015 16:32 AM

        My thoughts exactly, Shad!

      Apr 16, 2015 16:26 AM

      Thanks LPG… yeah.been following this precious blog still … just not posting anything.. kind of hibernating mode… 🙂

    Apr 16, 2015 16:30 AM

    Thanks Birdman. I heard Rick say he has it going down to about 810. From what I have read in the past 6 weeks, the 1% payed a 30% premium on top of approx. 12k on gold. Rob Kirby was one of them. Very credible in my eyes.

      Apr 16, 2015 16:49 AM

      I heard rick say that. But he also said it was a worst case scenario from a technical perspective and I think he does not expect it to go that low. I had a long standing call to see gold bottom at 968 on a spike low but even that seems remote at this time. Who knows though….we will just have to watch it play out. Right now I am still on for another leg down as this large bearish H&S pattern on gold and silver plays out to its conclusion.

        Apr 16, 2015 16:07 AM

        What do you think about what Doc said earlier today? I personally agree with him.

          Apr 16, 2015 16:31 PM

          Al, I disagreed with a lot of what Doc said today so I decided to just keep it to myself.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:40 PM

            I don’t think that he would want you to do that, Bird. Everyone on this forum has value!

            Apr 16, 2015 16:54 PM

            I said enough today I think. Doc and I are just going in different directions. Where the dollar is concerned I have literally zero doubts it has ended its bull run and will now retrace most of its gains. I cannot hedge on that call. But I don’t want to mix it up with Doc who does an excellent job on technicals every day.

            Besides Al, I am enjoying the peacefulness of your site this week. Postings are down by half but you know what?….half the posts were just garbage arguments anyway between me and a small group of detractors who hate me like poison.

            God loves them….but I am really happy they have mostly gone silent.

            Apr 16, 2015 16:07 PM

            More quality posting, Bird, and that is what really matters as far as we are concerned!

        Apr 16, 2015 16:31 PM

        Heard you may be right ski has a double sell with Jay’s index signals I wouldn’t go against him

    Apr 16, 2015 16:33 PM

    Delete those Al

      Apr 16, 2015 16:37 PM

      Not sure which ones you mean, but I kind of have an idea. Okay, thank you.

      Big Al

        Apr 16, 2015 16:45 PM

        Ya sorry today, guys wanted to input and was trying to mic my typing to my handset while driving all day..went to crap.
        Was just saying that SKI that uses the USERX is sometimes of some assistance. He’s got a double sell on the metals showing and I would go against him when that occurs…its a real gamble with no real trend. Putting in some microwaves tomorrow and not the cooking type. Cha ching.
        PS HEAVY your being a little heavy handed

          Apr 17, 2015 17:21 AM

          Bill, I also have a problem with Heavyhitters posts. I enjoy reading this site but his posts really bother me. I divide them into what they are and what they are not. Kind of like a back of the envelope analysis. Like this:

          They are not about stock markets or investing.
          They are not about gold miners or gold.
          They are not about the subject of the thread.
          They are not about the interviews.
          They are not even related to what anyone else is talking about.

          But here is what they are:

          They are emotional and combative.
          They are divisive, accusatory, inflammatory and argumentative.
          They usually feature the names of people here he is focused on.
          They are manipulative of the hosts and readers.
          They are a dead end and Lord help you if you make the mistake of answering one.

            Apr 17, 2015 17:21 AM

            He who is perfect , cast the first stone.

            Apr 17, 2015 17:39 AM

            Absolutely correct! Great feedback. Hopefully things can get on course here.
            There are a few others here that have been quiet that have been more inflammatory than they think. Although Birman has hurdled some big stones he is one if not the most informative. Just don’t pick a fight with him.

          Apr 17, 2015 17:41 AM

          There are very respectful posters that left Bill
          and may not concern you but it does me.

          Also, this forum is inactive and your discussion
          was more appropriate in a current forum who
          is all over the gold trade.

          Same thing applies to…A Listener Poster who
          doesn’t understand as per above.

          Don’t forget gold is rising and that was my market
          call contrary to a imaginary guru on the board.

          Cha Ching $$$$$ Using my lines too Bill I see.

          Not sharing my extremely accurate analysis here anymore.
          Enjoy your guru. My cash register is ringing big.

            Apr 17, 2015 17:05 PM

            HANG IN THERE HH………I like your info.

            Apr 17, 2015 17:41 PM

            What about some of the other comments Frank. Any comments there?

            Apr 17, 2015 17:27 PM

            Gold was up Big AL. You must go where the winners are.

            Its just the ways of the world Big AL. Wraps up a very good week.

            Take it easy. Its not worth it. Enjoy your weekend.

            Apr 17, 2015 17:40 PM

            HH
            Hey everyone has something to contribute…Anyone throwing stones is guilty..I just saw you poking some fingers. Keep up the info and not the fingers! Cheers

            Apr 17, 2015 17:18 PM

            Then contribute Bill. Sometimes we have a score to
            settle with a good cause. Many respectful posters
            have left. Please, its now over. These posts are history
            and not current. Man….you want to go back a week too.

            Enjoy your weekend. ..its finito !!!! Its a new dawn.

            For real. I have business to attend to and not posting.

            Be good !!!!

    Apr 16, 2015 16:06 PM

    I don’t trust the market at all. I feel they could flash crash any stock to interest rate levels with no penalties or jail times for anyone. They can’t do that for PM’s. At least PM’s with be worth something reasonable in other Countries. Worst case scenario.

      Apr 16, 2015 16:24 PM

      Gregd
      Not many people do trust the market and that’s precisely why it won’t crash. Crashes are very rare and the word is just tossed around these days. Prior 2009 you never ever heard the word and after it did crash the fear was so great that one of the greatest bullmarkets commenced. Phsycollogy is the main driver and the job of the market is to cool the maximum participants.

    Apr 17, 2015 17:43 AM

    Just looked out the window. I’m screwed it’s raining. Chopper is the only way now. If you can find anything on JFT was from Sprott is THE most successful manager I’ve ever come accross. He is still not a gold bull. He’s got a gift for the fundamentals. Chow

      Apr 17, 2015 17:42 PM

      HEAVYHITTER
      Hey everyone has something to contribute…Anyone throwing stones is guilty..I just saw you poking some fingers. Keep up the info and not the fingers!
      When gold is up big that’s $300 for me and we are in a bull market…We are just picking our noses now…Cheers

    Apr 17, 2015 17:24 PM

    Knock it off..Bill. See my post above.

    You are provoking trouble in a inactive
    forum intentionally.

    Please keep the noise down. Big AL doesn’t
    need this. Thanks !!

    Apr 17, 2015 17:31 PM

    jhttp://www.blog.co.uk/media/photo/big_happy_face_icon_insert_animation_icons_or_o_k_tattoodonkey_com/6771504

    Be cool !!!

    Apr 18, 2015 18:50 AM

    Quoting LPG, “fair value for gold is what can they produce gold at”
    Is that not something like $1200, where it is now?
    So gold is at fair value roughly, which might mean that it has not overshot very far to the downside as of now, bottoming at $1130 late last year and at $1920 in 2011 it had overshot a long way to the upside.
    I also worry a bit about the gold:oil ratio which is around 22 right now falling from a possible head and shoulders with a target of about 17, which is closer to historical norms. Perhaps reassuringly though , oil has had a nice little impulsive move up in recent weeks.

      Apr 18, 2015 18:04 AM

      The gold:oil upmove looks anomalous and may be breaking down

      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24GOLD%3A%24WTIC

      The upmove reminded me of the second half of 2008 but where was the credit crunch? It is all a bit odd. Either gold is overvalued or oil is undervalued.

      Apr 18, 2015 18:10 AM

      The Gold:Oil ratio is looking like it might want to go back to 16 or 17. Call it 16.5. What does that imply at various oil prices?
      Oil : Gold
      80*16.5=1320
      70*16.5=1155
      60*16.5=990
      50*16.5=825
      40*16.5=660
      Rick’s potential oil target of $31 oil:
      31*16.5=511.50
      That makes me go hmmmmmm.

      Apr 18, 2015 18:23 AM

      The bottom in oil has some nice inverse heads and shoulders and looks quite a lot like the June 2013 low in gold:
      http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24WTIC
      Perhaps that implies a nice rally now and potentially more downside in the future.
      Head was $42 neckline is about 53. Target is around 64 then for oil perhaps.
      64×16.5 = $1056 for gold on 16.5:1 ratio.
      Gold also has head and shoulders right now targeting around $1010.
      What a coincidence?