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Tuesday with Gary

Big Al
April 15, 2015

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Discussion
52 Comments
    Apr 15, 2015 15:40 AM

    I have been overweight in oil -xop for many weeks patiently waiting for the breakout that happened today.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:17 AM

      Nice payday Paul!

        Apr 15, 2015 15:21 AM

        WTI has made three higher highs on the futures and looks like its in a breakaway so more good news to come I suspect. Keep an eye on the Canadian dollar because its giving a solid signal for higher crude prices on their way.

          Apr 15, 2015 15:24 PM

          I have a nice gain on the exchange but if I convert all my US$ back to CDN, I have to start paying interest on the US dollars stocks for borrowed money since I only have US stocks. Cdn $ should head toward 84 soon.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:08 AM

    Well, kudos to Gary on this one. I thought supply was just too great & was wrong.
    I am sure the mid-east wars have helped with the “fear” premium.

    LPG
    Apr 15, 2015 15:13 AM

    From Zerohedge:
    Bullard Hints The Fed May Hike Rates Only To Cut Them Right After
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-15/bullard-hints-fed-may-hike-rates-only-cut-them-right-after

    GL to all investing/trading

    LPG

      LPG
      Apr 15, 2015 15:26 AM

      As a side note, big move in the loonie today…
      Best to all,
      LPG

        Apr 15, 2015 15:55 AM

        Yaaay! Go Loonies. Its about time it reversed higher LPG.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:18 AM

    Looks to me like some of the shorts are getting squeezed on oil today. Momentum people I doubt have jumped in yet. Yesterday, Chris Vermeulen said the same thing as Gary…….expecting to see mid 60’s in this jump. They have different opinions as to what happens then. Vermeulen thinks oil will basically flatline in the mid 60’s. Gary looks for a retracement back down to a new low. Guess I’d go with Gary on this one since inventories keep climbing and many are running out of places to put current production. That fundamental has to take effect sometime! As always, JMOO.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:28 AM

    Hi Al, I don’t believe citizens should be allowed to own fire arms and I am definitely not an advocate of war, having said that I would appreciate it if you didn’t refer to me as machine gun. I’m not being critical of you, I just don’t like being called that because it provokes an image that I am not. If you want to delete this message or restrict me from posting or both that is your prerogative. All names other then the poster’s moniker should not be tolerated as you and Doc talked about yesterday. Everyone should be treated fairly, I’m sure you know what I mean. DT

      Apr 15, 2015 15:27 PM

      Very Sorry, I got that from “Dick Tracy” Will not happen again.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:36 AM

    All those experts in the media have been calling for 20 to 35 oil and they are now left behind. I went 100% in and then lowered my position a few weeks ago which was a mistake. Oil should reach $70 by the end of they year or within 12 months. The big traders with go long after making money shorting. They may push oil much higher than reasonable levels despite fundamentals. I managed to buy back my Intel position at the opening for less than the aftermarket sale yesterday. Msft is also doing well today while Apple is not yet firing but I added more today.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:44 AM

    Against all the odds, Gold is popping today and GDXJ is on a freakin’ tear up!!

    I was expecting higher PM prices this week, but I don’t really see and drivers why other than technically. It is also to be noted that it was traveling up in tandem with the US dollar most of the morning until the dollar just turned down mid day.

    If Gold comes out of it’s daily cycle low here and rallies for the next week or two, then things may still play out with the pop in PMs into mid-April, and then a correction in late April down into May. It will depend on if Gold can rally above $1222-1223 and head towards 1239 by the end of April.

    We shall see if this rally has any legs this time….

      Apr 15, 2015 15:46 AM

      I am curious to see what happens if GDXJ test the recent to peaks at $24.87 from April 6th, and the $24.86 peak from March 24th.

      Will it break on through to the other side?

        Apr 15, 2015 15:56 AM

        BTW – Great Panther Silver had a very healthy looking press release today. I have traded their stock on an off for 5 years, but just recently took a position in (GPL) again.

        http://www.greatpanther.com/English/News/News-Details/2015/Great-Panther-Silver-Reports-First-Quarter-2015-Production-Results/default.aspx

        Apr 15, 2015 15:13 AM

        GDXJ just made it though the $24.86-$24.87 prior peak resistance zone but just barely. Anyone have any thoughts on whether it will close above or below that level?

          Apr 15, 2015 15:31 AM

          Shad, gdxj just poked through the 233 ema on the 120 minute chart. I sold a bunch of calls and some shares. 24.78 is currently the 55 day ema. I don’t know where it will close today, but the action is good and dips should be bought (just my opinion). I have plenty of gdxj and still some calls so I will be buying other things —like the VXX calls I bought today.

            Apr 15, 2015 15:00 PM

            Good thoughts Matthew. I was excited to see it get above $24.87 today as that is a bullish sign, but I was just wandering if it would keep going or retreat from this higher level. I am planning on buying the next dip. Cheers!

            Apr 15, 2015 15:50 PM

            Wow. GDXJ closed at $25.02. The Jr Miners showed some real strength today.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:44 AM

    Gary,
    Thanks……for a week know I’ve been reaping the benefits of your prescient oil call. Now most of my gold plays have been up since last week too….looks like there should be a healthy spike up in the miners if and when that mini breakout soon…..feels like the quality minering stocks are sensing that.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:29 AM

      The move looks positive for gold and silver today but it barely registered where my multi-month bearish head and shoulders pattern is concerned so, speaking for myself, I would not get too enthusiastic about metals yet based on a single days trading.

        Apr 15, 2015 15:46 PM

        Birdman…it is thought by many chart followers that the head and shoulders formation following a downtrend is not a valid signal..normally a head and shoulders formation following an uptrend will more often than not, signal a reversal should the right shoulder be violated…

          Apr 15, 2015 15:27 PM

          I agree 100% Gator. I have expressed similar doubts already. And yet I am trying to keep an open mind and just let the charts speak for themselves. If you look at a weekly chart of gold you can see where it did in fact experience a crude H&S formation off a major decline in the second half of 2013. At that time there was also considerable doubt and yet gold did carry through and fall to deeper lows. So nothing is out of the question quite yet.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:40 AM

    Gold miners should report good Q1 result as the average gold price in Q1 2015 is higher than Q4 2014 with much lower oil price and lower production cost.
    Gold price bottomed yesterday.
    One way to dig out the local bottom for gold is when gold price is down for the day but gold miners are up such as yesterday’s case.
    The same can be said for gold tops: when gold had an up day but gold miners are down, gold price is topped or about to top.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:23 PM

      Interesting point, Garriel!

      Apr 15, 2015 15:53 PM

      It depends on their all in sustaining price for a ounce of metal and that differs from company to company. Some are still borrowing money and operating at a loss or had huge write downs the last few quarters. There are some companies that were very profitable though, and they should stand out above the rest.

      Also the lower oil prices and currency exchange rates will favor the Australian and Canadian miners over the US miners.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:41 AM

    Good show Gary and congrats on a nice call on crude moving higher. I thought I posted I agreed with your assessment for a move up when you made it….but who knows, I am getting old and could be losing my marbles!

      Apr 15, 2015 15:47 AM

      🙂

        Apr 15, 2015 15:56 AM

        Are you smiling because I might be losing my mind? 🙂

      Apr 15, 2015 15:22 PM

      Only one person on this site getting old and losing marbles and that is me!

        Apr 15, 2015 15:57 PM

        I am pretty impressed with your recovery so far Al. We are rooting for you, man.

          Apr 15, 2015 15:50 PM

          It was a month just a few days ago and I still cannot drive or play golf. Not fair!

            Apr 15, 2015 15:08 PM

            There is always video games Al. I say that in all seriousness too. Some of the new routines are excellent. Whether its a car chase or a round on your favourite greens you can stay in shape from the comfort of a chair and keep your mind focused.

            Apr 15, 2015 15:17 PM

            On a serious note Bird, I got into meditating just before the stroke. Let me tell you it is miraculous! Check out http://www.chopracentermeditation.com

            I am quite serious regarding this, my friend,

            Big Al

    Apr 15, 2015 15:42 AM

    I might be mistaken but isn’t everything going up today?

    Apr 15, 2015 15:00 PM

    I would want to see USD below 96.50 for a better confirmation of the top, Gary. That is not so far off right now and the trend looks undeniably down. Good call buddy. I keep forgetting but you are pretty much the only guy in my camp for a dollar decline to get underway. Did you see my comments on Ricks thread from yesterday by any chance?

      GH
      Apr 15, 2015 15:39 PM

      I’ll join you on that call Birdman. The daily and weekly charts seem clear on this.

        Apr 15, 2015 15:47 PM

        You are telling me. And take a hard look at the Canadian dollar. There is not all that much resistance all the way up to the 87 range (just eyeballing the chart here btw, so not being too precise right now). With the Loonie on the rise and the Euro gaining traction at once it looks very positive for most everything energy related all of a sudden.

          Apr 15, 2015 15:09 PM

          How about precious metals related, Birrd?

            Apr 15, 2015 15:22 PM

            Yes, great question Al. There is a fairly good correlation of gold to the Canadian dollar going all the way back to the summer of 2011 when the Loonie double topped just as gold peaked and began its fall (with a slight lag).

            Assuming that the CAD is now back on an upward trajectory and if that correlation holds then that would alter my case for much more in the way of gold declines other than gold just completing this current bottoming process.

            So yes, I would have to seriously reconsider my current position and would be prepared to take a more bullish stance on metals while discarding some notions of how deeply gold could yet fall.

            There are a lot of conditional ifs in those words above though. This is a watch and see right now because I cannot make a quick decision based on just a single days trading. But the shear forcefulness of the CAD move this morning floored me. It was a huge move for the Loonie and it looks like a breakaway move higher.

            Apr 15, 2015 15:12 PM

            Al
            Ever been stuck @ US_Canadian border crossing; Gas, cheese, and outlet stores ?
            Brian

            Apr 15, 2015 15:46 PM

            HA….Instead of all this hocus pocus long commentary
            that clearly leaves the reader with not much to feel
            comfortable with and I will beg to differ here. Yes, I want
            to prove a point because gold will make a big move first
            few days next week and will remain in a positive trend with
            volatility until the middle of June.

            The general markets ..The Spoos will get hammered first few
            days of next week.

            These are accurate market calls and have 90 percent probability
            or much higher. Being conservative.

            I can guarantee everytime my market calls will be much more
            accurate and superior to yours Bird. Your market calls are nothing
            to get excited about. Not only that they are not wishy washy like
            most are.

            You think I might be not very proactive with the markets
            and lack expertise to be the best in the business.

            Just because I don’t post my proprietary information and its
            my choice whether I share it here. I won’t either not with the
            way things are going.

            Write it down. By the middle of next week big moves are coming
            per my comments above.

            No, I’m not posting any longer. Why, because most of all the egos
            here and hocus pocus long commentary doesn’t prove you know
            all that much. If anything !!! That’s my point. My accurate market
            calls will prove it next week. Without the hocus pocus and feeling
            uncomfortable. Long commentaries that won’t make money
            or move these markets.

            Keep posting and typing away. I’m living by the cash register.

            CHA CHING $$$$ ..BYE !!!!!!!!!!

          Apr 15, 2015 15:33 PM

          Going to void The Spoos short for next week.
          Until further notice. Probably not. Will not be
          posting.

          Gold will definitely start moving up from now
          into next week. Postive trend into mid June.

          With volatility. ..

          Cha Ching $$$$$ Cha Ching $$$$

    Apr 15, 2015 15:29 PM

    The breakout on the loonie looks real. It might pullback the next couple of days but then watch out.

      Apr 15, 2015 15:27 PM

      I agree Richard. And it is auspicious as hell for most commodities including gold. I may have to reconsider my usual bearish position altogether as the market appears to have anticipated the bottom in the CRB commodity index by bidding up the Canadian dollar aggressively. That does not mean that commodities themselves have all bottomed though. Would it not be easy if life worked so seamlessly? Each commod is on its own time schedule and at a different stage. Even gold still appears to want to make that final leg down. So there will be lags between action and reaction depending on what we are buying. In the meantime, i continue to look for a retest of the 2014 lows on gold, despite what the CAD is telling us.

    Apr 15, 2015 15:48 PM

    Intel shot up well today with panic short covering helping turn the market up. Shorts were piled in and I bought on the sharp correction yesterday. They came with some good news from their data center.

    Apr 16, 2015 16:37 AM

    LOURD-HIITTER don’t go!!!

    I’ve been buying the TSX up these last 10 days….and so far so good. Thanks Gary et “le Doc!” Good stocks on the TSX will outperform all other indexes going forward until the business hits the fan in 2016/17.

    Apr 16, 2015 16:37 AM

    sorry I meant SHOULD outperform!;)