We cover the drop in gold and rise in the conventional markets, plus how the markets are reacting to each other
We kick off the day with Gary Savage discussing the drop in the precious metals today and the rise in the conventional markets. After touching on oil the question is posed, how are the markets connected and how do we play a continued rise in oil?
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It wouldn’t surprise me Bird. Gold is looking like a sell anywhere over $1200 (or 800 GBP Sterling; it’s at 801 now), just as it was a sell at 1900,1800,1700,160,,150,,1400 and 1300 USD.
I agree Dave. And once gold finally breaks decisively below that level and remains there the 1200 level will become extremely stiff resistance for quite some time. Looking at a weekly chart you can see only one round number that was cut down with hardly a whimper and that was 1500 which offered no support for bulls at all. I recall clearly the wailing and gnashing of teeth as it gave way like a collapsed house and fell all the way to 1400. This 1200 marker seems to be one of the toughest layers to break thus far though….and of course that is emboldening the gold camp to the idea that average cost of production is the final line that cannot be crossed.
Boy, are they going to be surprised!
Silverbug Dave. Do you have target where you expect to see Gold bottom or a time horizon where you’d stop shorting and start going long? (ie 1050, 1000, 965, 881)? (next 3 months, Fall, end of the year, 2016?). Just curious if you were looking at a certain technical level for the major bottom in PMs and end to the 4 year bear?
Unfortunately you are right Dave. However after we go down (in a more violent manner) I think gold will be able to retake the 1200 level fairly easily. But who knows how long that will be…
Hi Bird. The drop in silver today makes me nervous as well…
Bears have been in control since Sept 2011…lower highs and lower lows…sell the rallies buy the dips, repeat!…..trade it!, as buy and hold based off fundamentals has been a capital killer
The action the PBOC took on the weekend has re-goosed the equity markets…..lets see what gold does if $1283 area comes into play, again
Viva Las Vegas!
For all the High Ballers..9000 S.F. Suites…..Live Everyday Like Its Your Last !!!!!
9 Minute Mark …on the video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNQd0B4F3MY
Go out with a bang !!!!
I watched the video HH. I’ve spent 8 different trips to Vegas, and had winning trips, but overall lost more and made a nice contribution to those hotels in the desert.
There are far better risk reward ratios and hedging in investing in equities, bonds, hard assets, and real estate. You can also be very conservative in your investing approach trading lower risk for lower reward. Although currently, savers are being punished (bank saving accounts, CDS, Money Markets, bonds) and forced into riskier assets with higher yields in equities. This is another result of the 0% Interest Rate policies; they force an artificial stock bubble as savers flee deposit products that aren’t making anything. This artificial central banking charade reminds me of Vegas.
Shad, thanks for the comments. Interesting all the
high level dynasty accommodations. Only in Vegas.
$200K bottle of wine ready when you are. Vegas is
fun for a quick excursion for several days. Entertainment
purposes only.
Gambling for serious players must have their game on.
My strategy is one of many weeks stay and must be sober,
very patient, highly focused, disciplined, well rested, extremely
observant surgical strikes no more than 90 minutes a day
invested. Luck changes from one day to the next. Briefly but
would never gamble any other way. Few days stay for some
gambling I view as a guaranteed way to lose. I will stop there
because its very tempting for me to live on the strip and there
is lots more to comment on. All about high discipline and it is
work and high stress.
The financial markets and investing are the same. Few of few
walk away with the chips in both cases. Quite frankly, I would
like to do both would be much more lucrative. These sideways
markets are not being cooperative. Viva Las Vegas !!!!
Yes, I have learned over time that the short-duration, single-focus, and with a planned short duration of time is the best strategy. Normally I just do several bets with the 48% odds (even/odd or black/red for roulette) or I’ll play the point number of 6 or 8 on craps which is around 42%. The best strategy is to get in and get out with the winnings and then go to the pool or see a show in Vegas on the house.
Shad, roulette is my forte with strategy. Takes me a week to
warm up with one small bet a day. Once I’m fully confident will
dramatically increase my bet. All the time spent in observing the
tables and choosing the dealer. Briefly a surgical strike placing
my bet on black or red seconds before the ball lands in the slot.
VIVA LAS VEGAS $$$$$$ All about discipline and patience.
A good solid bank roll helps. The warming up burns a hole
with lodging costs etc. Not to mention one must be independent.
Good thoughts today Cory & Gary. Much appreciated!
Thanks Shad
NUGT and JDST swapping places all day on my Scott chart. Sheesh!
Many of the PM Miners were up(+) or flat today.
It is not ALL about the price of Au and Ag and conventional stocks.
I honestly take that to be a bad sign Brian because if mine equities are now responding to broad equities rather than gold then we should expect them to get splattered like pumpkins on the pavement once a real market correction kicks in.
The chats tell me that we are about to breakout to the upside at least in the short term. I would keep a careful eye and be nimble here. I think there are a number of mining companies that are going to post a nice Q1 profit bcuz of the cheap input costs (oil etc). I would also look for a push back of rate hike to the fall, Greece problems, and a lower short term USD on weak data; Primarily housing and jobs report. I would look for $1225 before the end of April. But be ready to take profits……
I wouldn’t be surprised if gold were to shoot up $80 bucks in a week or two just as most market participants are fed up and out of it. The TSX is poised for a late bull run soon…..I’d think twice about being completely out of the gold space at this point. We could see a late spring rally here. Time will tell. There a fair amount of good plays on the TSX that are not commodity related….there charts looks ready for a nice move up. Any constructive thoughts out there on this perspective?
Thanks Gary. Good show. Today’s move in silver is signaling that gold is almost ready to break down from the 1200 dollar range its been hugging for months. Like silver it is not far from losing all its gains this year so I am looking for a drop fairly soon to take us back down. Silver specifically looks heavy here. The bears are in control.