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Monday and The Doctor is In

Big Al
April 20, 2015

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22 Comments
      Apr 20, 2015 20:27 AM

      “The tally may come before the IMF’s meetings on the SDR next month or in October, Nomura Holdings Inc. said in an April 8 report”. — Bloomberg
      ———-
      Well, that’s not long to wait to find out, Gabriel. If China does release totals on gold next month we will know soon enough if its really going to have much of an impact on price.

    Apr 20, 2015 20:29 AM

    Bloomberg going big on China Gold story
    Their conf at London PMs Week centres on it: A new Chinese Gold Standard?
    http://connect.bloomberg.com/microsite/201505-CMEPreciousMetals/reg-email/8580374e-27f9-4edd-bdcf-f9973f9bda14.ashx

    Apr 20, 2015 20:55 AM

    Reality would move the market. But that would move it down. QE would move the market. That would move it up. The longer we stay sideways the harder it is for pension plans to make money. Volatility is the only way we can stay at these levels, I think. Like gas stations make money with the gas prices staying in a range.

    Apr 20, 2015 20:02 PM

    Have a look at a chart of median age by population / country.

    This chart came up after listening to Harry Dent over at USA Watchdog today….and of course Harry is the guy who specializes in demographic trends and has a very sour outlook on global growth all the way out to 2020. So I dug up a chart of median ages by country to put it in perspective and give his idea a hearing.

    Notice those dark blue labeled countries. …eg, all of Europe, Russia, Canada and Japan? Sheesh, the whole Northern Hemisphere is an old folks home heading for wheelchairs and oxygen!

    Now look at Sub Saharan Africa. Can you guess where the growth will be even as much of the West is flat or in decline? And is it really any wonder some of these nations are posting average GDP rates of growth in excess of 5, 6 and 7% annually?

    Color Coded Map of Median Age by Country. —- can you Canucks say “slow growth” btw?
    http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Median_age.png&imgrefurl=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_median_age&h=625&w=1425&tbnid=5KLPCi-gJzwiNM:&zoom=1&tbnh=80&tbnw=184&usg=__-sAm33wlPFue9mHCTV4QzP_sH6c=&docid=v8bYP4Fc-84caM

      Apr 21, 2015 21:27 AM

      Tell Harry that world war 3 will supercede demographics.

      Harry should have shut down and retired long ago on his
      30,000 DOW predictions over a decade ago.

      Now he’s pimpin $250 to $700 gold. OMG..what could possibly
      go wrong.

        Apr 21, 2015 21:31 AM

        Harry’s prediction I believe was 2 decades ago calling for
        30,000 DOW in the early 2000 to 2003 year time frames.

    Apr 20, 2015 20:50 PM

    It’s not a surprise that gold doesn’t move up as oil moves up right now because the gold:oil ratio is coming off a historic high.

    Apr 20, 2015 20:23 PM

    You are sounding stronger, Big Al and I bet Doc is taking good care of you.

    But you might want to add ground tumeric to your diet. It is a strong anti-inflamatory. Also, moringa powder (it’s a green powder) and try some flax seed meal to get a lot of omega 3. You can buy the seeds and grind them up.

    Every morning I have oatmeal with ground tumeric, cinnamon, moringa powder, flax seed meal, bananas and a touch of pepper. (The pepper increases the potency of the tumeric) in non-fat milk. I also take 4,000 IU of vitamin D, 1000mcu of Vitamin B12 and 500 mg vitamin C. (Most people are deficient in vitamin D and B12.) Give it a whirl. It can only help.

    Apr 20, 2015 20:26 PM

    Big Al, do you know what happened to Jerry? I am starting to get concerned.

    Shad seems to think he is posting as Frank from Moscow but I don’t know…

      Apr 21, 2015 21:26 AM

      Ebolan – Check out the Thursday April 16th Rick Ackerman thread at the bottom with Andrew, Heavy Hitter, Frank from Moscow, and myself for more clues……

        Apr 21, 2015 21:30 AM

        On April 17, 2015 at 10:41 am,
        Frank from moscow says:

        Well said by all parties……SHAD,HH, ANDY…..hang in there , the FAT LADY HAS NOT SUNG YET.

        On April 17, 2015 at 11:04 am,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Thanks for the encouragement Frank From Moscow.

        Hopefully one day you can have the privilege and honor
        to communicate with J..The Long..ootb. Very wise,
        highly intelligent and most of all a great friend.

        You will learn a lot from J. Very good characteristics
        and is also a excellent example of a good mentor.
        J…he’s also very pleasant and great sense of humor.
        Many good memories here communicating with J.

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:09 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        I am sure he would think the same of you.

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:14 pm,
        Shad says:

        Frank I never found out if you actually are J….The Long….OOTB.

        When you called Big Al Mr. OWL yesterday, and had complex thoughts on Chinese Real Estate, with vastly improved English, all I got back was a smiley face.

        A tall glasss of Bourbon says your OOTB Frank From Moscow! 🙂
        Reply to this comment

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:16 pm,
        Shad says:

        Or if you’re really Russian, maybe you would prefer a Vodka my friend.

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:29 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        Grey Goose will be fine. 🙂

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:30 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        There can be only one J THE LONG

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:37 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        Actually, I think a good moniker at this time would be …BOOT ..
        .Frank from Moscow TO BOOT

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:44 pm,
        Shad says:

        Gotcha. But I do think it is curious that a Russian just requested a French Vodka.
        No Russian Standard, Kauffman Luxury, Stolichnaya, or Smirnoff for you huh?

        That’s a really Out Of The Box request Frank! (F…..OOTB)

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:46 pm,
        Shad says:

        Oh, I sorry didn’t see the new ….Boot. Not to be confused with Das Boot.
        So It’ll be Frank from Moscow…..to Boot.

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:49 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:
        🙂

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:58 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        that was what I was thinking also, great minds think alike.. 🙂

        On April 17, 2015 at 1:57 pm,
        Shad says:

        Hmmm…..My comment about you ruling with an Iron Boot versus an Iron Fist was removed when I just came back.

        That is confusing because it fits in with the Frank from Moscow…..The Boot discussion. It also was that line that you were agreeing with and said great minds think alike.

        I know we are monitoring content now, but there was nothing wrong or controversial on that one Big Owl. Just discussing Russian politics with my friend Frank.

        OK then….

        On April 17, 2015 at 6:48 pm,
        Big Al says:

        Sorry Shad,
        If I took it off it was my mistake.
        Al

        On April 17, 2015 at 2:14 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        NEXT is the IRon curtin, for certain…. 🙂

        On April 17, 2015 at 2:46 pm,
        Shad says:

        Just don’t become the 1980′s wrestler – The Iron Shiek.
        (you’d be jumping out of the frying pan of Russia and into the fires of Iran)

        On April 17, 2015 at 5:27 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:

        no,, me like THe IRON CHEF, this way you never starve to death.

        On April 17, 2015 at 12:34 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        Well Frank From Moscow, the truth is ..J…was my mentor
        learned from him many things including how to be more
        respectful and be kind to those that may have been
        disrespectful. Reverend Andrew has been there for
        me too. Both really great guys who are unique and
        rare.

        Getting back to ..J… a very special and amazing guy.
        Thank you for your comment Frank From Moscow.
        Reverend Andrew is disappointed and so am I. Good friends
        poof…gone !!!!!!

        On April 17, 2015 at 1:18 pm,
        HEAVYHITTER says:

        The fat lady never sung..Frank.

        I knew you couldn’t close up…shop.
        Looks like I will need to be up bright
        and early for Saturday round table.
        Golds going up…happy days are here.
        Then again, Hellary wants adult fun camps.
        Guillotine renovator is waiting for his new victims.
        Be watchful and sober Frank. ..don’t get caught in
        the cross hairs. or HAPPY FEMA !!!!! : )

        On April 17, 2015 at 1:27 pm,
        Frank from moscow says:
        🙂

          Apr 21, 2015 21:40 PM

          LONG LIVE…J….THE LONG…

          Never short gold and always long.

          A loyal and trustworthy gold comrade.

          R.I.P.

            Apr 21, 2015 21:27 PM

            Amen.

            R.I.P. J…..The Long…..OOTB

            but…..

            Frank from moscow for President!

            Apr 21, 2015 21:28 PM

            sorry… I meant Frank from moscow…..da Boot for president.

    Apr 21, 2015 21:58 AM

    I wouldn’t be surprised if gold were to shoot up $80 bucks in a week or two just as most market participants are fed up and out of it. The TSX is poised for a late bull run soon…..I’d think twice about being completely out of the gold space at this point. We could see a late spring rally here. Time will tell. There a fair amount of good plays on the TSX that are not commodity related….there charts looks ready for a nice move up.

      Apr 21, 2015 21:08 AM

      At this point, Confused, a $40 move in Gold up or down doesn’t really surprise me much, but a sudden $80 move is always a possibility. I think it is reasonable that Gold may pop up to test the 1222-1223 level, and if it has more steam head for $1239, but then may turn down again.

      Originally my thoughts were that PMs would come under pressure at the end of April and into May, but that was based on a stronger US dollar. Gary Savage and Chris Temple had a very good piece on Thursday April 16th on why they thought the dollar was not going to take out it’s previous high at $100.39 anytime in the next few months.

      If that is the case and the dollar is under pressure for a few months, then Gold could try for the 1308 level again before this counter-trend rally is over. I do Not see gold taking out the 1347 and 1382 needed to show we are in a new bull market though until later in the year.

    Apr 21, 2015 21:00 AM

    Can anyone back me up or contest my thoughts above? I would like some other perspectives if there are any out there.

    LPG
    Apr 21, 2015 21:49 AM

    Posting this here and will repost under an Apr 21st podcast as well:

    ******

    BLOOMBERG INTERVIEW:
    Stan Druckenmiller Is Betting on Three Market Surprises in 2015

    It’s 43 mn long and a must-listen, IMHO:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-15/druckenmiller-bets-on-market-surprise-with-china-boom-oil-rise

    Giving credit where it’s due, it was in (Casey Research) Ed Steer’s Daily Gold & Silver Dispatch on April 21.

    Best to all and GL investing/trading.

    LPG

    Apr 21, 2015 21:59 PM

    LPG thanks for the dose of reality….I need reminders from time to time as to why I am in gold at all! The system works until it doesn’t as they they. The truth is not one person knows when the gig is up.

    Apr 21, 2015 21:10 PM

    Shad
    thanks for your valued perspective!

      Apr 21, 2015 21:32 PM

      Thanks for the good posts and for keeping the discussion on point.

      May your trading be prosperous.