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Gary is not changing his mind about gold and the conventionals.

Big Al
April 28, 2015

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124 Comments
    Apr 28, 2015 28:17 AM

    More US economic data this am Richmond Fed Manu survey (misses) suggesting any rate hike would be later than earlier sending the US$ down and gold getting bid. Yellen could reverse all this with the FOMC statement Wed along with US GDP data, how many times have we seen this play out with no follow thru, I’ve lost track but will be looking for direction after the FOMC up or down, long or short?

      Apr 28, 2015 28:00 AM

      I read yesterday, that Yellen was not expected to speak after the FOMC meeting., I think maybe it was at zerohedge.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:04 AM

      Other than possibly strengthening the value of the US $, a rate hike at this time makes absolutely no sense. Does it?

        Apr 28, 2015 28:52 AM

        It makes absolutely perfect sense Al.

        The dollar has peaked on this cycle. That’s it….and it is now in a technical decline that will remain unaffected by a rate hike whenever it comes just as gold did not rise when the QE’s were announced (much to the shock of all gold bugs).

        We need to marry up fundamentals with technicals to understand these patterns and appreciate how they work. Anyone calling for the dollar to spike to 1.20 anytime soon or the Euro to crash below parity is smoking bad weed.

        The dollar did a case-perfect Elliot five wave move and that has peaked, popped and terminated.

        End of the story.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:55 PM

          I have to stick to my guns that a rate hike really does not make a lot of sense in my mind.

          Consider what it would do to the cost of Fed Debt!

          Maybe in the case of a “Jubilee” it would make sense. But that ain’t gonna happen.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:47 PM

            Think of this as just a teeter totter Al. If interest rates go up so does inflation and that makes debt repayment easier as debt is withered through devaluation (it is the reason the Fed wants 2% annual inflation of course). On the other side of that teeter totter is a low rate environment where the debt can effectively be frozen in time and provided the deficit is falling we would not experience major repercussions. In that scenario it is hoped genuine growth would kick in and the debt would fall to manageable levels as tax receipts rose. But if low rates are not working then it is “inflate of die”……and that is where we are now going.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:11 AM

      Good summary JJ. The continue kicking the can further down the road.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:39 AM

        Yep. I constantly amazed on rate hikes from the Fed or the debt ceiling debate in Congress, or with Greece, or the ECB QE how long politicians and bankers can continually kick the can down the road. For them, no change is policy is better than taking action, yet everyone postulates on what they are going to do….typically….nothing.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:54 AM

          They did QE!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:04 PM

            Yay I guess they did do something after all:-)

            Just the constant lip service about what they will do, or would react to, or that they’re monitoring this statistic or that……kickin’ that can baby!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:51 PM

            haha good point Bird. That is why I still believe that the Fed will raise rates (just a little) to test the market later this year.

            The whole process of kicking the can (read stalling) I think is to set the market up for this to happen.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:58 PM

            You may be correct Cory, as I think it is more likely the Fed would try hiking rates as the dollar is falling, just to show the marketplace that they can, versus in a rising dollar environment. However, if they hike rates more than the marketplace is expecting, then it could spike the dollar in the fall, flash-crash the general markets (Sept?) and pressure PMs slightly, but only at first. Eventually the dollar would blow off near 110, and then turn over, and PM will end the 4 year Bear and start a new Bull. We’ll see if the Fed has an ace up their sleeve and hear their blather tomorrow.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:00 PM

            I contend that rates are going to rise based on the chart dynamics of the dollar, commodities, gold and bonds. All of these will reverse or have started to do so already.

            There is absolutely no question in my mind that a bottom in commodities ( the deflationary trend up until now) is the trigger to introduce rate hikes as resource prices begin to rise in the coming months on a technical basis (so in fact, inflation IS coming).

            Secondly, the dollar has peaked and is now in a decline back to the mean. Perhaps mean-reverting is the better term. I keep repeating this to the crowd here and nobody seems to get it let alone be bothered to present a counter argument.

            But it sure is obvious to me.

            That means that an entry into a rate hike regime is more than possible (guaranteed) and we need not worry about the dollar being impacted. Look, once a decline has begun off a parabolic top there is literally NOTHING that will arrest its decline.

            Not even rate hikes. So all the things that the analysts are saying is wrong and just about everyone is on the wrong side of the boat now going long bonds, long dollars, short Euro and rates, short inflation hedges etc.

            Time will prove I am correct about the dollar and Fed hikes.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:31 PM

            You may be right Birdman, and I do hear what you are saying, and agree that it is possible the Fed may temporarily hike rates while the dollar is in a weakened state. I also agree with you that long term the dollar is doomed.

            Where we differ is that I am not sure we’ve seen the last blow-off top in the dollar and think we will see it later this year and it should take out the prior March 11th and 13th level of 100.39. I see it getting as high as 110 and was on the record here in Feb & March saying that, but originally I thought it would come in May/June. You and Gary and Chris T. got me to see that the dollar was temporarily double topping in April and would not break above it for at least 3-4 months.

            Bird, You were clear at that time that you felt it would continue going down and would not be getting above the March highs any time soon, and I you’ve been consistent in that belief. Again, you may be right.

            Personally, I’m expecting the Fed to surprise the markets in September with an interest rate hike of something like 50 or 60 points, and feel this would spike the dollar, and that is when we’ll see the blow-off top in the USD. In addition, I don’t think they’ll be able to keep raising rates, because it will torpedo the financial system, so I expect it to be a one-time novelty before things unravel further.

            We’ll see how it goes man……but your insights are helpful, and I also agree that commodity inflation is coming later this year as well and it will coincide with the dollar dance and the interest rate tango.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:02 PM

          BTW – Good interview Cory, Al, and Gary. We’ll see how everything reacts on Wed afternoon and Thursday after the FOMC and GDP #s percolate and circulate.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:56 PM

            Those will truly be interesting numbers, Shad!

    BDC
    Apr 28, 2015 28:29 AM

    If it breaks November lows,
    gold will likely go sub $900.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:05 AM

      So BDC you are in Gary’s camp?

        BDC
        Apr 28, 2015 28:21 AM

        My stuff says lows likely in,
        but if broken $900 or lower.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:12 AM

          Hopefully we do not see sub $1,000 let alone sub $900. If we do though it will be a great time to buy. Everyone will be washed out.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:56 AM

            We could have a washout in weeks if the exchanges would start enforcing their own rules and begin cleaning out the deadwood and delisting or suspending those who no longer qualify to be there. But its all politics and nobody wants to make the hard decisions.

            BDC
            Apr 28, 2015 28:41 PM

            There is a pitched battle going on now at
            ‘the creek’, approximately 114.80 (GLD).

            The long term up-trend line was broken
            in March, but this may have been a head-
            fake, considering the quick turn around.

            Long term up-trend lines are often more
            reliable than any other indicator. A good
            example of this is Newmont. Connecting
            March 1978 to October 2000 lows gave a
            possible ‘hold’ at 17.00. In November its
            low held with room to spare at 17.75,
            and in December this was successfully
            retested to 17.60, by closing at 17.78,
            above November’s low — very strong !!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:53 PM

            Bird, you are right about the rules not being enforced. Politics rules the day and those that run the exchanges are hand in hand with those making the big money.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:03 PM

            Thanks Cory. I have a feeling that it may just change soon though. It has become too obvious that a lot of failures are being nursed along in hopes that gold will recover before action needs to be taken. They are after all paying fees, dues and listing payments and keeping a lot of professionals employed.

            But dead is dead. We need a clean up.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:37 AM

    Just saying:
    I know that everybody is expecting a lower low in gold but is it possible that we
    already got it …
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnyjpzzfpr1anih/GLD-UUP.jpg?dl=0
    (I know Gary …)

      Apr 28, 2015 28:44 AM

      Gabriel,
      I really doubt it. The bottom in Nov. just doesn’t look like an 8 year cycle low not too mention that once the dollar finishes correcting it’s going back up. So for the moment the pressure on gold has been released as the dollar drops. But it’s going to come back once the dollar starts to rally again.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:58 AM

        What dollar rally? ….There won’t be any rally that is more than a dead cat bounce. Bank on it.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:09 PM

          You may be correct Birdman, but nothing is 100% absolute. I for one agree with Gary that we’ll have the pullback in the dollar and then push to 110 before year end.

          Nobody has a crystal ball, so we can’t really bank on anything, but react based on which pattern plays out. I am in and out of the markets all the time, and can react based on new info. I am not sure how people can buy and hold for the next 6 months as it is too turbulent and currencies, bonds, stocks, and commodities are going to have some major peaks and valleys. For me I’m more interested in short term trades over (1 day to 2-3 weeks). Get in….get out with the houses money. Repeat.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:16 PM

            I used to use tea leaves but now I just channel the thoughts. Tomorrow I am looking for a solid up day in the markets with the Dow hitting new highs.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:26 PM

            I think people can get in the “flow” and tune in to information that is in their highest good, if that is what you mean by channeling the thoughts. Maybe you mean channeling another entity like Ramtha, Seth, Abraham, Theo, or the Others…not sure.

            As for tomorrow, do you think it will be because of the FOMC/GDP number coming out that the Fed and bankers will want the general stocks up for the day as Gary mentioned? How do you see Gold & Silver doing on Wed afternoon or Thursday once the marketplace has digested the news?

            Apr 28, 2015 28:48 PM

            Metals should be down tomorrow. Lets see how the rest of the day goes first though.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:17 PM

            Thanks for your thoughts Birdman.

            BTW – I responded to you on Gary’s blog from yesterday (Monday). I’ve been on listening to Al’s site since 2011 and posting since 2012 as Shad, and always have been. Bird, you and I have been talking, and I’d add in a civil and friendly manner since Dec of 2014.

            I thought your comments to me that I was Matthew reincarnated seemed odd, especially considering the amount of time we’ve written back and forth for the last 5 months, in what I thought were healthy discussions. If you pull the back blogs, you’ll see a history of where Matthew and I were friends and talking about stocks since 2012. You and Matthew are more alike than either of you is willing to admit, but I always respected both of your opinions. The butting of heads and attacking each other just got old to everyone, and that his why Matthew, Glenfidish, and Andrew (The Rev) left as they felt wronged, and why Heavy Hitter and J…The Long…OOTB (now Frank in Moscow….the Boot) asked for Al to address the bullying and it was.

            I don’t have any energy nor do I care to go into any more detail, but I am sad that Matthew is not hear anymore, (but I have my suspicions he may be Gabriel). To me, Matthew was one of the most consistent contributors, and helpful to me personally, but maybe a little quick to disagree with an opinion. He was always friendly to me though.

            Birdman, I’ve also learned a lot from you and appreciate your insights and wisdom. You make a great deal of accurate calls like Silver below $16, the dollar double topping recently, and on Oil and Gold. We’ve also had good discussions in the past about Rare Earths, Uranium, PGMs, and Food/Fertilizers. Hopefully we can continue to have these good conversations and share good ideas into the future.

            Cheers.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:50 PM

            Cheers Shad. I had no idea you have been posting on the site for so many years. I was reading for the longest time but just kept to myself mostly because it didn’t seem like much a home to a bearish gold guy. Anyway, all the best to you.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:00 PM

            Great philosophy!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:01 PM

            Thanks Birdman. Well keep posting as many read your thoughts that don’t post, and you have many valid points…… and keep it friendly 🙂

            ELE – Everybody Love Everybody

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nXJe9i70DE

            Apr 28, 2015 28:36 PM

            Well said Shad 🙂

            Apr 28, 2015 28:42 PM

            Thanks The…..Boot!

      Apr 28, 2015 28:06 AM

      Not that I am violently disagreeing with my friend Gary. But I personally think that you could be right Gabriel. Time will certainly tell.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:12 AM

        Thanks Big Al. Very diplomatic response.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:01 PM

        Agree Al. Gabriel could be right. Anything could happen at this stage and some of us would have to throw our theories out the damn window and get on board. I am letting it play out though. Can’t make any decisions based on two days trading. These moves look like they may have violated my H&S theory though.

        Back to the drawing board. Lets see what tomorrow brings first though.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:43 PM

      On April 28, 2015 at 7:53 am,
      Shad says:

      What about Matthew and Glenfidish that were big-time Novemberists? What about Bob Moriaty, Gabriel (potentially Matthew), Frank….The Boot, and the leanings of BDC? There are a fair number of Novemberists out there that are intelligent people.

      On April 27, 2015 at 8:20 am,
      gabriel says:

      I’ve been hearing about these lower lows for a while, haven’t seen them yet. Still in these manipulated markets anything can happen.

      What if the LOW was in November ?

      On April 27, 2015 at 8:45 am,
      gabriel says:

      I have another one for you :):
      99% Of People Don’t Know When They’re In A Bull Market – Eric Coffin

      On April 27, 2015 at 9:03 am,
      Birdman says:

      This is a bull market? … who knew eh?

      On April 27, 2015 at 9:13 am,
      Bob Moriarty says:

      I knew. I said so on November 6, the day of the low.

      On April 27, 2015 at 9:20 am,
      Frank from moscow says:
      good call…….BOB.

      On April 27, 2015 at 9:24 am,
      BDC says:

      The odds are better that you’re right than wrong;
      however, a break below that means much lower

        Apr 28, 2015 28:00 PM

        great observation Shad…………. 🙂

          Apr 28, 2015 28:25 PM

          Cheers my good man!!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:04 PM

            Great comment to Bird, by the way!

            Apr 28, 2015 28:30 PM

            Yes it was a key comment from Bird, “This is a bull market? … who knew eh?” because that would be the overwhelming reaction if the Novemberists turn out to be right. If the scenario plays out that the November lows really were the major bottom, then we actually would be in a bull market right now.

            As was quoted in Gabriel’s comment:

            “99% Of People Don’t Know When They’re In A Bull Market” – Eric Coffin

            Personally I’m not leaning the direction of the Nov lows being the Major Bottom, but I am not ruling it out completely either. At this stage nobody knows and we need more information and time to see which pattern plays out. This is why I continue to add a little to my core positions on the dips and pullbacks.

            I do like the spirit of the Novemberists though, as they are thinking contrarian to almost everyone that is waiting for this same Precious Metals washout. If it never comes, then we actually are in a new bull market and they’ll be vindicated.

            Personally, I’ll admit that this time I share the consensus view (rare for me) but feel we still need the final wash out, and originally went on record as saying I felt it would start going into May and may continue into June. Now, I am leaning more towards the fall, in a similar camp to Gary and Doc, as it was based on a rising dollar (post-poned till fall) and the perceived threat of the September rate hike.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:34 PM

            As for this Wednesday (news madness over-analyzation day) and Thursday (fallout continued reaction day) who knows? It’s a toss-up, normally there’s a head-fake reaction, and then a reversal. I want to see the trend play out and then take action as it will likely set the tone for the next 2-3 weeks.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:49 AM

    What the h&ll is an 8 year cycle. Gary you keep pushing your cycle length out until you get it right. So frustrating.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:04 AM

      There are multiple cycle degrees. The daily cycle runs roughly 20-30 days. The intermediate cycle runs roughly 20-25 weeks. The yearly cycle about 11-13 months and the largest multi-year cycle, roughly every 8 years.

      The low at $680 in 2008 was an 8 year cycle low. Another one of those is coming and is due either this fall or early next year.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:18 AM

        Martin Armstrong has had those dates highlighted since 2013, the fall 2015 or spring 2016

          Apr 28, 2015 28:30 PM

          Actually a bit earlier than that 🙂

        Apr 28, 2015 28:28 AM

        I get your short, med., long term cycle theory but last year you were speaking of a major 7 year commodity cycle that lead you to the projection that mid-2015 was the timing of the gold turn around. That has recently changed to an 8 year cycle and I cant quite understand how/why that suddenly changed.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:03 PM

          Well last year was 7 and since this is a year later now it can be 8…and next year 9… 🙂

          Just fooling around Gary!

        BDC
        Apr 28, 2015 28:53 AM

        Gary: The 2008 low was in October.
        The previous low was in July 1999.
        That’s 9.25 years, or 1.25 too much.

        What is the shortest duration long
        cycle that you’ve seen? (The low in
        November 2014 would make it just
        over 6 years, if that’s the real one.)

          Apr 28, 2015 28:44 PM

          I think cycles (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Yearly) need to be stated as a period range, or they do not seem valid to me.
          Gary has given ranges for Daily, Weekly, and Monthly. Perhaps it is a 7-9 year cycle.

          +/- 12-15% seems like an acceptable error range for years, no?

            BDC
            Apr 30, 2015 30:42 AM

            Thanks, Brian. Note my comment, which will occur Thursday, to Gary.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:07 AM

      Peter,

      Again I appreciate your e-mail response.

      We, by the way, are going to start looking at larger companies starting with the newsletter coming out at the end of this week.

      Best to you,

      Al

        Apr 28, 2015 28:11 AM

        not sure what this is in reference to? email response?

          Apr 28, 2015 28:06 PM

          Someone sent me an e-mail, signed Peter R, with a detailed response as to why he did not want to receive our newsletter.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:35 AM

    Sounds like a power struggle inside Iran Al – if it is true that this ship has been taken over.

    Surely gold, and also silver, are merely respoonding to heightened tension in the Gulf over this?

      Apr 28, 2015 28:06 PM

      HI Bob UK in retrospect, it looks like it was blown way out of proportion.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:41 AM

    What an awful statement by Gary even though true. The FED is going to move the market this way or that way. The people responsible for all the financial chaos in this world completely control this market and everyone is so complacent. Just wait until the headlines read, Janet Yellen crashed the market, bank derivitives come due $140 trillion. Let’s see if the teaparty has their camouflage on and their guns loaded

      Apr 28, 2015 28:15 AM

      Unfortunately I feel as though the Fed still has the power. They won’t forever but and we see the issues building. The question is when… As Rick says “I don’t have a crystal ball”.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:07 PM

      Interesting observation, Mr. Malzone!

    Apr 28, 2015 28:49 AM

    I think if gold breaks 1215 today, it might get interesting.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:16 AM

      It keeps inching closer. Looks like it should just take it out if this continues.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:33 PM

      I am more interested in seeing how Gold tests the 1221-1222 resistance (major sell/stop congestion) and 1239 (next resistance congestion point).

        Apr 28, 2015 28:36 PM

        By Thursday we’ll know which way the breakout is going to be in PMs and that trend should last 2 weeks. If it is up, those levels may get approached and recede, or approach and get stuck in the muck, or hit and turn back down.

        If 1239 got taken out and even 1244 then that would be good for Gold technically.

        However, if the breakout on Wed afternoon/ Thursday is down sharply, then “sell in May and go away” will kick in with a vengeance and it will get ugly quick.

          Apr 28, 2015 28:08 PM

          Gold just might get a WEDGIE and a SWIRLY early Wednesday morning, to keep it in its place, in case GDP is LTE and Yellen announces “no announcement” after FOMC.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:18 PM

            Wow a Wedgie and a Swirly…….

            So you are thinking all the competing data maybe just causes a wash or more of a non-eventful day then? Sometimes there is so much news and conflicting views that it becomes a snore so you may be right Brian. Good thoughts.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:53 PM

            I said earlier………”.no announcement”……….. read it yesterday , thanks for confirmation…… 🙂

            Apr 28, 2015 28:47 PM

            A good ole non-announcement then….

            Apr 28, 2015 28:48 PM

            Just to clarify:
            I admit to stealing the phrase “No announcement” from FrankFromMoscow.
            I will pay royalties; please have your CASELESS lawyers contact me 😉
            Brian

            Apr 28, 2015 28:35 PM

            Frank, this royalty stream you just picked up from Brian should go a long way towards your Presidential campaign. Caseless and Cashless.

            Apr 29, 2015 29:41 AM

            🙂

    LPG
    Apr 28, 2015 28:00 AM

    A Zerohedge article mentions that according to an Al Arabyia Tweet, an Iranian-seized cargo vessel had about 34 AMERICAN sailors on board.

    Quite frankly, having been “involved” a little bit in shipping in my professional career, it would be one of the first times in my life that I see a cargo vessel with such a large crew of American citizens.

    Allow me to dwell a touch:
    Normally, shipping crews are mostly from Sri Lanka, Philippines, Cambodia, Vietnam, Bangladesh… You get it: “poor” countries.
    The reason: ship owners can pay crew low salaries.
    But 34 crew members of US citizenship on a cargo vessel ????… Wow…. ! that would be a “premiere” for me.

    Just my 2 cts.

    LPG

      Apr 28, 2015 28:35 PM

      STUDENTS with college debt, those Harvard grades with law degrees……….. 🙂

      Apr 28, 2015 28:08 PM

      If that is true, you raise some very interesting questions.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:29 AM

    12% PROFIT OF GOLD TODAY! WOOHOO! Proof positive that you CAN make $$$ on gold in a bear market! Sold NUGT today for $12.62. Been holding for at least $12.30 which I missed a few weeks ago. Glad I held. Who says you can’t hold a 3Xer for more than a day and still make money?

      Apr 28, 2015 28:43 AM

      The decay is not really noticeable on 3x-ers, until you have held for a couple weeks (in a sideways market)

        Apr 28, 2015 28:31 PM

        Agreed. I never worry that much about decay, which many trumpet as a warning against 3 x ETFS, because the market is going to trade sideways for 6-12 months or something. The markets are so volatile and the 3 x ETFs move so much in percentage that either you win big or lose big in a short time frame (like options), however you have the benefit of holding as long as you want. The price action always overtakes any affects of decay in the ETF. If you bought NUGT at $10 held if for 2 months and sold it at $13, then my point is always, “Who cares about the decay?”

      Apr 28, 2015 28:17 AM

      Good job Jason!

        Apr 28, 2015 28:05 PM

        Nice!

    Apr 28, 2015 28:52 PM

    Twitter fell hard from $52 on the earnings leak. I bought some at $40 plus Apple on the drop.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:26 PM

      SLAVE STOCKS !

    Apr 28, 2015 28:32 PM

    ” We are creating the conditions for a dictatorship in a single generation if we go cashless” John Rubino

    John Rubino – Global War On Cash Breaks Out — Financial Survival Network
    http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2015/04/john-rubino-global-war-on-cash-breaks-out/

    Apr 28, 2015 28:33 PM

    Investings is a bitch. I’ve seen some of the best people wipeout in the last 15 years

      Apr 28, 2015 28:56 PM

      It is definitely not for the faint of heart. That being said if you had your money in the conventional markets for the past 4 years it doesn’t seem that bad 😉

        Apr 28, 2015 28:02 PM

        True, it comes down to which horse you bet on, knowing when to hold em’ and when to fold em’, risk profile, diversification, time horizons, investment expectations, and marketplace Fed-pectations : – )

          Apr 28, 2015 28:46 PM

          Yes gambling.

            Apr 28, 2015 28:37 PM

            Life’s a gamble my friend…… I’m just happy when I win every morning by waking up alive and kickin’.

            Good luck to you in your investing and gambling sir!

    Apr 28, 2015 28:03 PM

    Facts about the Silver Bear Market according to Tiho Brkan – Short Side of Long

    * The current bear market is four years old, which means it is the longest downtrend without a substantial rally since Silver officially floated on exchanges in the late 1960s
    * While the 1987 to 1993 bear market was longer, I would like to remind the readers that the actual low was posted in early 1991
    * The current bear market is down 68% from its April 2011, which ranks it as the second worst downtrend (worst being the 1980-82 bursting of the bubble)
    * Furthermore, there has only ever been one bear market where Gold sold off more then 50% and Silver sold off more then 70% (the 1980-82 precious metal crash)

      Apr 28, 2015 28:39 PM

      Yep, we’re getting close to a reversal in Silver, base metals, and commodities, but with China’s numbers indicating their slowdown recently, it likely will next quarter.

        Apr 28, 2015 28:34 PM

        Some people still think we are in a bull market in gold and silver and that this 4 year old bear is just a dip that should be bought. Too damned funny for words, man. Not only is this not a continuation of a secular bull market but its now confirmed we are in the worst silver bear ever recorded in modern history!

        Makes you wonder what it would take for them to lose their enthusiasm for losing money.

          Apr 29, 2015 29:10 AM

          I was trying to come up with some snappy analogy to demonstrate how ridiculous the claim is that what we are experiencing in metals is a cyclical decline in a secular bull market. I mean, that assertion is so brain dead.

          How about this: If you look at the DOW in the year 1900 and compare it to taday you might also say that stock markets are in a multi century bull market. The proof is that the index is so much higher today than it was 115 years ago.

          But that is totally meaningless as far as trading goes because it ignores a whole lot of market crashes that happened between here and there. Meanwhile, the gold bear is still alive and well even as it is digesting victims both long and short as it trades sideways to the consternation of all.

          It is damn hard to get excited about metals at such a time. Now uranium on the other hand……..

    Apr 28, 2015 28:11 PM

    The Death of Cash — Bloomberg April 23 2015
    Could negative interest rates create an existential crisis for money itself?
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-23/negative-interest-rates-may-spark-existential-crisis-for-cash
    ——————-

    Just in case any of you were wondering….yes, business and media writers do scour the web and sites just like this one for trending stories that might otherwise not come to the public’s attention. This one is about the end of cash, an idea that has been discussed at length on Kerr Report for the past year.

    So there you go, we were in the lead on this story. And some of our ideas are being rehashed in both alternative websites and the major media. Funny how just having a daily blog discussion can create the seeds for a news story.

      Apr 28, 2015 28:28 PM

      I agree……I WAS QUOTED ON SEEKING ALPHA…… lol 🙂

        Apr 28, 2015 28:43 PM

        So was I Frank. Funny stuff that.

    Apr 28, 2015 28:12 PM

    And yes, John Rubino reads this site too. So lets keep it civilized everyone. People are tuning in.

    The End Is Near, Part 1: The “War On Cash” — John Rubino
    http://dollarcollapse.com/creeping-fascism/signs-that-the-end-is-near-part-1-the-war-on-cash/

      Apr 28, 2015 28:19 PM

      Diss is MORE ! ( EUGENICS ) NO CONTACT UNDER HUMANS !

        Apr 28, 2015 28:22 PM

        MICROCHIPS COMING ! And YOU NOW DON’T WORRY NO PROBLEM THE KINGS AND THE POPE WILL SAVE YOU WESTERN WORLD ! OBYE !!!!!!!!!!!

    Apr 28, 2015 28:27 PM

    In case you cannot be bothered to click on the link and read the article I thought I might post this quote from the above linked Bloomberg article. Curious is it not?

    “The idea of abolishing or even constraining physical bank notes is anathema to a lot of people. If there’s one thing that militias and Tea Partiers hate more than “fiat money” that’s not backed by gold, it’s fiat money that exists only in electronic form, where it can be easily tracked and controlled by the government. “The anonymity of paper money is liberating,” says Stephen Cecchetti, a professor at Brandeis International Business School and former economic adviser to the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. “The bottom line is, you have to decide how you want to run your society.” — Bloomberg

    Like I said the other day, it is Goldbugs, the very people who most hate fiat money, that would in the end be the staunchest supporters of dirty paper notes and physical cash. I am sure there is no irony in that at all!!!!!! 🙂

      Apr 28, 2015 28:32 PM

      I love old dirty money…….. currency collector….. check out a WATERMELLON NOTE 1000 GRAND ….MS 65 PLUS…….. 🙂

        Apr 28, 2015 28:35 PM

        1890 yr………SOLD FOR $3.4 MILLION IN Jan 2014……….

      Apr 28, 2015 28:36 PM

      DEBT IS A KILLER OF HUMANS CASE IS DEBT YOU CAN’T DEBT GOLD AND YOU GOVERNMENT LOVES YOUR THINKING ! UP TO YOU THE DOLLAR KING IS THE ARMY OFF THE POPE’s PLAN ! UP TO YOU WW3 COMING ? MONOPOLY DOLAR FREAK !!!!!!!

        Apr 28, 2015 28:44 PM

        Franky,
        You got a way with words…

    Apr 28, 2015 28:42 PM

    The “War on Cash” in 10 Spine-Chilling Quotes
    From Wolf on Wall Street – April 25 2015
    http://wolfstreet.com/2015/04/25/don-quijones-war-on-cash-quotes-to-cashless-society/

      Apr 28, 2015 28:50 PM

      HA HA ! i YES THE POPE NEVER NEED CASH ! HA YES BIRDMAN !

      Apr 28, 2015 28:22 PM

      Very good article Birdman. Thanks for posting it.

        Apr 29, 2015 29:09 AM

        Sure thing.

        Take a look at the silver daily chart. It has turned down this morning right where we would have expected based on the past years action of its price peaks. I think this decline takes us below silvers primary support line and into deep waters.

        Silver is undeniably leading gold so this is bearish for both metals at this stage. We could be just days from a sharp decline.

    Apr 29, 2015 29:19 AM

    Trader Dan on the Dollar and commodities

    http://traderdan.com/?p=4214

    Apr 29, 2015 29:21 AM

    Bill Gross’s short of a lifetime would led to financial Armageddon.
    Bill Gross…..

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-04-22/bill-gross-s-short-of-a-lifetime-would-mean-armageddon?cmpid=yhoo

    Apr 29, 2015 29:26 AM

    The price of GDX is on the verge of breaking out of a bullish rising wedge. Today’s news from the fed will be important although I read that the recent surge in gold prices is attributed to Venezuela selling their gold to Citibank.

      Apr 29, 2015 29:59 AM

      Biggus, take a longer term look at GDX and you can see a clear pattern of lower lows and lower highs going back a couple years. That chart does not give me any sense of optimism whatsoever. It only needs a modest rally to another peak before it begins declines to new lows.

    Apr 29, 2015 29:12 AM

    Changing subjects for a moment……but has nobody been looking at the long bond chart either? I meant to bring this up the other day when I heard one more person saying that double digit gains could still be made on the 30 year Treasury and longer terms.

    That’s nuts in my books and I will post a chart to challenge that idea. I hope you all take a long look at it before listening to anyone advising getting all hot and horny about further rate declines.

    Here it is from Finviz. Does NOBODY notice the huge double top on the weekly chart? The 30 year has a great, big, fat, obvious decline written all over it and there seems a certainty the market is no longer doubtful that rate rises are coming.

    Just my opinion of course, but the most money will be made on the short side of the 30 year for the next while. Maybe a long while too judging by the size of that topping pattern and the fact it turned down at MAJOR resistance posted as four peaks that appeared in 2012 and 2013.

    Finviz –Futures 30 Year Bond — Weekly Chart
    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZB&p=w1

    Apr 29, 2015 29:28 AM

    The ten year is set to decline as well in my view. actually, the declines have already begun.

    Apr 29, 2015 29:32 AM

    Agreed Birdman. I am patiently waiting to buy into DUST.