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May 2, 2015

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Discussion
262 Comments
    May 02, 2015 02:12 AM

    I don’t just see it guys – if gold and silver are heading lower then surely the mining stocks will eventually follow the metals down.

    I think Rick is right that, at best, the mining stocks might languish. But surely, at worst, we could see the mining stocks fall much further. Perhaps more Allied Nevadas if – when – gold gets down around 1,000 bucks later this summer.

    I think the only chance gold and silver has this summer is if Mr. Putin decides to send his army out for a drive through the Ukrainian countryside.

      May 02, 2015 02:35 AM

      I let the market tell me Bob UK
      It seems there some PM stocks acting quite well. And many doing poorly.
      I think it reveals that some lower cost producers that have manageable debt are doing ok with a lower gold price. Others won’t wake up untill the price is much higher. Usually the idicies will give you an idea of which way the POG is going. It’s not exactly clear but when the waters are muddy I just stay away. KGI is one that’s on the edge of a major breakout.

        May 02, 2015 02:47 PM

        Kirkland Lake Gold does have a saucy looking chart right now Bill. If we get a big pullback in the miners, I’m going in on a position in it.

        May 02, 2015 02:58 PM

        I bought into GCU at 10 cents, I also bought some more on Friday, it really is a boring stock except for the fact that it is making me money. Sometimes boring is a good investment! DT

          May 02, 2015 02:05 PM

          Boring but making money is good sometimes DT.

        May 02, 2015 02:36 PM

        Bill, I don’t let the market tell me. I TELL YOU !!!!

        I’m long gold into next week. Nice big block too.

        No bull crap with weenie paper trades or anything
        else that’s gutless trading.

        Regulating and delegating …boys. I tell you !!!!

        LONG AND STRONG….HFT trade so in and out.

        Adiós. ..machachos !!!!

        BTW…..Armageddon is much closer than you
        realize too. The world problems will not end
        well. The dreamers are persistent though. The
        wannabes keep pushin on. No hope for them.

          May 02, 2015 02:44 PM

          No Armageddon. The meek shall inherit the earth.

            May 02, 2015 02:34 PM

            Then you will be one of the few who escapes what’s
            coming if you are walking with Christ.

            Where your treasure is, is where your heart will be also.

            Blessed be the man who’s sins are forgiven and God’s
            Great Kingdom will be yours and the universe. Amen !

            May 03, 2015 03:27 PM

            6000 RETAIL shops going out of business across USA. ….zerohedge

            May 03, 2015 03:57 PM

            Old news but valid. My observations months ago
            I stated on here vacancies in office, commercial,
            retail and industrial was abundant.

            Business cycle has topped and we roll over and crash.

            Train left the tracks and catastrophe is dead ahead.

            By year end everything will shut down. FARWELL !!!!

            TIME TO CLOSE UP SHOP. Be gone and stay gone !!!

            May 03, 2015 03:23 PM

            Just raised my sell stop and now in big profit.

            Big block too. That wraps things up.

            Cha…Cha…Cha…CHING $$$$$$$$$$

            Digital currency. …only an idiot would
            trust that horse crap.

            All roads will lead to gold. All the gold
            bear propaganda is foolish.

            May 04, 2015 04:35 AM

            Just thought the confirmation from the “news” would validate our observations, …boots on the ground. 🙂

            May 04, 2015 04:09 AM

            Thanks Frank for the news from zerohedge. This is
            good confirmation as you have stated. 🙂

            The avalanche of business failures should not surprise
            us that’s coming. They or them will surprised but not the
            very few of us that realize all the floor boards holding this
            corrupt system up are rotted and its a long ways down.

            How severe the pain is difficult to gauge however much
            worse than anything we have ever experienced. Optimism
            has no merit with the current state of affairs. Interest rates
            are at 500 year lows held down under water by the central
            planner criminals. The trigger point or match is just waiting
            to send interest rates soaring. If that doesn’t happen then
            something else will. Mankind is at great risk with many perils
            just waiting to be unleashed.

            The dreamers are in for one hell of a wake up call. It will be
            conclusive recovery is not an option by year end.

    May 02, 2015 02:22 AM

    Bob, you need to read John Ing and Andrew Maguire on KWN Bob plus McAlvany below.

    http://mcalvanyweeklycommentary.com/

      May 02, 2015 02:26 AM

      Tier ONE gold …….a big game changer. Two or three years ago, gold was not even considered in the system.

      May 02, 2015 02:53 AM

      Isn’t this just wishful thinking on behalf of the diehard gold bugs? The world did not have a gold reset or go back to the gold standard in 1929 or in 2008/09.

      Why do so now?

        May 02, 2015 02:36 AM

        BANKS still circulated gold certificate after 1929. Example check out $1000 $10,000 GOLD CERTIFICATES DATED 1934. So, was this Tier One assets for the Central banks lending between and transferring gold assets on paper at the time after 1929, I think so. (officially we were not off the gold standard until 1971 and you still had silver backed paper in 1957).
        2008…The idea of having gold recognized as value or an asset with loanable value could not be used by banks on their balance sheets,and was poo pooed by Uncle Ben at the time. Banks could not use gold on their balance sheet to lend against or hold gold assets as collateral , and therefore not allowed as TIER ONE ASSETS.
        NOW TODAY, we have banks allowed to hold GOLD as a Tier One ASSET, which means there is establish value which can be lent against or held as collateral.
        Game changer. GOLD is deemed to have value by BANKS.

          May 02, 2015 02:48 AM

          Great point FFM! I agree 100%.
          And it proves we are going to asset based currency. Like I’ve been saying.

          May 02, 2015 02:13 PM

          Thanks for that helpful explanation Ffm

          May 02, 2015 02:24 PM

          Great point on the change in status of Gold to a Tier One Asset Frank…….The Boot.

          We’ll continue to see Central Banks in emerging markets as well as US continue to accumulate Gold (the ole’ relic).

    May 02, 2015 02:23 AM

    Two Bobs for the price of one!

    May 02, 2015 02:43 AM

    Great show.

      May 02, 2015 02:21 AM

      I agree. Dan Oliver had some very interesting thoughts, I always like what Michael Belkin has to say.He’s on it with the stock picks as I was watching all those companies except the 2 Australian ones (Dragon and Norton Gold Fields) as those were new to me. Tahoe Resources, Detour Gold, Klondex, Endeavour Silver, Guyana Goldfields, and Lake Shore Gold were already on my watch-lists and/or want-lists.

      Of course the round table with Al/Cory/Doc/Rick is looked forward to each weekend. Where has Chris Temple been this week?

      Also, Al, what happened to the daily editorial ideas with Roger Weigand? He was on a few times in Jan/Feb and then vanished again.

      When are you going to get Peter Grandich back on? Or David Morgan? Or Rick Rule? Or Peter Schiff? Or Mickey Fulp? Or Axel Merk? Or Alex Letourneau? Or Eric Coffin? or What about Scott Gibson from Kitco Gibson Captial?

      Can I recommend Jordan Roy-Byrne as a potential guest? He is fairly consistent and has been very accurate for the last 5-6 years on the way up and down in the PM space, and is accurate in his charting. Jordan does a weekly update on Palisade Radio that is worth reviewing (along with his past editorials on there).

      Here is his Kitco interview this week, and I agree with him on Bear Creek Mining if there is a silver price increase and on the strength of Kirkland Lake Gold as of late.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9V8XbFrmeE

        May 02, 2015 02:08 AM

        Interesting Shad as I have the complete opposite outlook towards Peter Grandich who was the go to guy during the uranium bull run years ago yet he held onto his jr’s and got killed he had a breakdown poor man, lost a lot of money!

        David Morgan has called every bottom in silver as the bottom, every one that guy is never wrong about anything

        Rick Rule again was long the jr’s to a fault and only recently has suggested this past year the bottom is not in yet with the jr’s another buy side only salesmen, very dangerous!

        Peter Schiff was completely wrong on US QE and its effect on gold and inflation

        Axel Merk was Euro$ bullish US$ negative big time

        I know subscribers to Jordan flip-flop Byrne who keeps trying to nail a correct trend for years now

        Interesting as imo the above have not done the pm’s sector any good as they continue to pump while lower highs and lower lows play out, like a watch eventually they will get the time right and of course will boost they picked the bottom!, again!

          May 02, 2015 02:57 PM

          Original JJ – I agree that ALL the experts were wrong on the severity and timing of this Bear market. However, I don’t think any of the names above are dummies, and they are some of the most well informed voices in the sector for better or worse.

          I never base my personal trading on what one person says anyway, and I’m not the type to go guru chasing. In fact, in all my years of trading, I’ve never subscribed to one paid newsletter, but do get the free email newsletters from dozens of people.

          All I’m saying is I’d like their thoughts on the Macro picture (Equities, Bonds, Currencies, Commodities), their thoughts inside the Commodity sector in metals and energy, and then the drill down to specific companies or news updates.

          I’ve learned a great deal by listening to great minds for many reasons beyond just their short to mid-term calls. You pick up a lot by osmosis, and some of them are quite entertaining to listen to.

          Cheers mate!

            May 02, 2015 02:21 PM

            The alternative is watching CNBC, so I’ll take my chances with people that actually understand the markets we all trade instead of the clueless talking heads on main-stream media.

            May 03, 2015 03:09 PM

            Here is a great interview from Palisade Radio today that is featuring Keith Neumeyer, the CEO of First Majestic Silver

            Keith Neumeyer: Bubbles in Everything but Mining! – 05/03/15

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=435&v=IV2xD87iu4o

        May 02, 2015 02:34 AM

        Great ideas Shad. I really like Rick Rule. Could listen to that guy all day because he has such a good speaking style and makes a lot of sense.

          May 02, 2015 02:50 PM

          Yes, Rick is just interesting to listen to, or how he will respond to a question. Like him or not, he is extremely plugged into the mining pulse at Sprott, is doing deals with companies and has for decades, manages their ETFs, and hosts his own investment conference. I would say his opinion is worth 5 minutes of our time.

          May 02, 2015 02:55 PM

          We have been through a tremendous crash of oil. Have people here loaded a lot of energy equity or still waiting for new lows? I know I have!

            May 02, 2015 02:53 PM

            Hi Lawrence, If I recall you are specialized in Canadian oil companies. Any good ideas about what has the most potential there or maybe what are the names to avoid?

            May 03, 2015 03:00 PM

            I am waiting for the next pullback in oil in about month or so to load up Lawrence. There is the potential it will test the previous recent lows in the low $40’s, but I still expect oil to head higher in the short term to the $64 level.

            May 03, 2015 03:12 PM

            I may swing trade few stocks or the XOP or OIH for a 1-2 trade (will decide later this next week).

            May 03, 2015 03:12 PM

            I work in the sector but it does not make me specialized in it. I may have heard about them more than most people.

            I think the large caps probably have combination of growth and safety. The best one I like is Canadian Natural Resource. It has the best management and proven record of carrying out projects under budget. If my suspicion of above $80 long term price turns out true Suncor and Canadian Oil Sand Trust are good buys now. Husky oil and Imperial are good and stable integrated plays. They will be safe with good dividend. Cenovus has operational problems and Encana has a lot of debt. I only have a little just in case they are bought out. Talisman and Nexen were bought out recently and not variable investment choices.

            There are a lot of mid-tier with great potential such as EnerPlus, Arc Resource, Baytex, Bonavista, etc. They are volatile. I don’t have any of them. I want oil shares for safety.

            I will avoid PennWest for sure. I will also avoid any pure shale play.

            I think US large caps probably better plays if you don’t feel US dollar is at risk. I like Conoco Phillips the most.

            I am waiting to load some service company shares, such as Precision Drilling, Trican and Schlumberger. They will report terrible earnings in the next few quarters but they will be busy playing catch up next year if oil recovers.

            Here is a list of Canadian companies.

            http://www.albertaoilmagazine.com/2014/05/100-largest-oil-gas-producers-canada/

            May 03, 2015 03:11 PM

            I cannot say I am specialized in Canadian oil gas. Just know a little bit. I like CNQ the most. Suncor is good buy if you think oil will go back to 80 and stay higher. Imperial and husky are safe plays because they are integrated. Mid sized companies are speculative. I would like to buy a couple of service companies when they report bad results later this yeSuch as precision drilling, Schlumberger.

            May 03, 2015 03:19 PM

            Those are some great thoughts Lawrence, and you just gave me some homework to do to check out some of the oil and oil service companies you named. Good stuff!

            May 03, 2015 03:38 PM

            I could see XOP hitting $57.12 in the near-term (1-2 weeks).

            May 04, 2015 04:51 AM

            I really appreciate the effort Lawrence. Many thanks for adding your ideas. Like Shad said…now I have my homework cut out for me.

    May 02, 2015 02:55 AM

    Seg 5 …great comments by all Cory , Doc , Rick, and you too Al. And thanks for turning on the SOUND. :)… Hope you are feeling better BIG AL. THE BOOT.

    May 02, 2015 02:07 AM

    If you have been picking and trading the right gold stocks you have been making money since November. It is that simple. Expecting major down drafts in the price of gold has been an easy play up until about December 2013. Now its chances of happening diminish as time goes on and chances of a severe correction in the conventional markets increases. The “sector rotation” Belkin mentions has actually been taking place for 4+months now. This is also another reason why gold stocks are not collapsing every time there is a drop in PM metal prices. These savvy investors know the odds are gaining in their favour. Yes, they might be early but I think there is a lot of validity of Doc’s and Belkins reasoning.

      May 02, 2015 02:20 AM

      ditto…..well said Confused.

      May 02, 2015 02:40 AM

      Outstanding post, confused. Your thoughts, and even your wording, resonate with my own.

        May 02, 2015 02:49 AM

        Thanks Brian.

        May 02, 2015 02:24 AM

        Absolutely!!

      May 02, 2015 02:13 AM

      Confused,
      There are two sides to the coin. If you think the bottom was November and gold won’t fall , then it’s time to buy. If you think we have more downside coming, you wait.

      I think GDXJ has much more downside coming. When gold drops hard ( and it will ) the junior miners are going to hit the skids. It’s inevitable.

        May 02, 2015 02:39 AM

        That is a good point as well Chartster, if you think the washout is coming then you wait, but if November was the low, then we are in the Bull market already.

        Personally that’s why I’m 1/3 in, and 2/3 waiting for the washout. Those are my odds.

          May 02, 2015 02:58 AM

          Shad
          I am actually the opposite: 70% in right now, with another 30% waiting. The 70% is core holdings in select 100% CA/US based miners ,and the 30% is waiting to be traded.

          Basically, I agree with DOC’s post below and his comments in Seg#5. For SOME of the miners (i.e, specific companies that I already own), I would rather have a solid core position, then none at all. A 20-25% downward correction will not bother me for the PM stocks I own, as I would still be in the GREEN.

            May 02, 2015 02:42 PM

            I would expect nothing less from a very intelligent and savvy Novemberist Brian 🙂

            If we pull back a little more in May then I may go to 50% / 50% waiting. I do agree that quality companies are holding up really well, and some are going up because people are finally realizing their value regardless of the current spot price range or general markets. I agree that there are some really good deals out there, but if the prices fall another 15-30% I’d rather scoop up many companies at a little lower levels than current.

        May 02, 2015 02:15 PM

        There are a lot of miners, like Claude, that will not be making new lows no matter what the metals and mining indexes do.

          May 02, 2015 02:28 PM

          Interestingly, this is as much about fundamentals as technicals. Claude had a ridiculous P/E a couple months ago. Now? Not so much.

            May 02, 2015 02:44 PM

            According to Thomson Reuters, Claude’s forward PE (fye Dec 2016) is just 10. This is very low for a gold stock and will be lower quickly if gold goes up even modestly. This would explain the relentless push higher, which, I believe, is due to bigger players with a longer term strategy. Most small players are out and hoping for a pullback. In addition, Claude has huge exploration upside. Small mcap companies can move substantially based on a good drill hole or two.

            Thomson Reuters has a forward PE (fye Dec 2016) of 24 for Newmont (NEM) and 25 for New Gold (NGD).

            May 02, 2015 02:53 PM

            When I looked at Claude months ago it had a PE of 5—-then when I looked at the narrative I said “WOW”. It broke above the 200 week MA the last 2 weeks with its” closes—–I would be surprised if we see it move below it anytime soon.

          May 02, 2015 02:44 PM

          I agree WMK. There are actually dozens of solid companies that are creeping up over time, and not pulling back very hard on the down days, even when pricing has been getting hammered. This show real support and buyers ready to jump in on the dips…..and that’s a promising sign.

          May 02, 2015 02:26 PM

          wmk,

          I agree there are a few miners to grab that won’t be hitting new lows.
          It’s timing the pullback with some of those.

            May 02, 2015 02:04 PM

            Bingo!

      May 02, 2015 02:37 AM

      Great thoughts and very well said Confused. There has been plenty of money to be made trading the quality stocks as the zombies are staying down, and the winners are rising like cream to the surface.

      The odds are increasingly in the favor of the bulls and the bear party in PMs will be coming to a close in the next 6-12 months. Some may postulate that the bottom already happened in November, and that still remains to be seen. I never stopped trading the miners last year or this year, as there are always small moves that can be traded, or medium term trends where they can be held for a 1-3 month period.

      I’m in the camp with all the investors can read a balance sheet and forecast the trends, and read a chart, and realize the general markets have been getting a bit frothy, and the miners are one of the most oversold sectors there is….period. Commodities are going to put in their major bottom over the next 3-6 months and then there will be years of gradual increase in the precious metals, base metals, specialty metals like tantalum, niobium, lithium, rare earth elements, and uranium.

      Where I’m early to the party, I am using dips to average into larger overall positions, so if we get the big washout this year with gold to 1000 (+/- 10%), then I’m deploying my “dry powder” at that time. That will be when you’d want to load your wagon.

      I do wonder though: If everyone is waiting on the sidelines for the PM washout later this year, then that point may bring in a bunch of buying pressure and you may end up paying more for the stocks. That is why I’m starting to wade in once in a while. There have also been a lot of really easy 1-3 day trades in the miners where you make 15-20% in 2-3 days. What’s not to like about that?

        May 02, 2015 02:52 AM

        GR8 points, Shad.

          May 02, 2015 02:05 PM

          Thanks.

        May 02, 2015 02:31 AM

        The quiet summer months might just be one of the better times to start acquiring miners seriously again. But what do you think about a market correction and what that might mean for gold miners, Shad?

          May 02, 2015 02:24 PM

          Gold miners have shown quite a bit of strength in the face of small market declines and in spot price declines. I was saying at the of last year and beginning of this year, that while I was starting to build positions in select companies, I was waiting until May/June to get more serious. I’m concerned about a market drop as well, so that’s why I’m 1/3 into positions (in case Nov was the low) and 2/3 in other asset classes or in cash (waiting for the final wash-out).

          Honestly, I’m just as stumped as everyone else at the lack of direction and the range trading and channeling wedge that is forming. I want to see what happens after the Fridays job report, as see how the general markets and PM markets move in relation to each other. My thoughts are the the mining stocks may move in tandem with the overall equities herd briefly….., but then diverge more and more and become inversely correlated to the general markets over time.

          My reasoning is the same as Michael Belkin’s, that we are due for sector rotation from the big boy funds and more money will fleeing the general markets and going to both conservative dividend stocks and to commodities. The inflow into commodities, will take these really oversold mining stocks and nudge them up by 15-30% in short amounts of time, and I don’t want to miss those moves. However, I don’t want to be too early to the party, and then go through the washout and lose 15-30% when I could just be patient.

          My best guess (and that is all it is after sifting through countless hours of technical and fundamental and sentiment data) is that we may have a 2-4% correction in the general stock indexes and a few down days this week and next, but this is not the “Big Correction”….I still think that is coming in the Fall (Sept target for various fundamental and seasonal reasons).

          The question is will the miners sell off with the general markets. I think maybe at first, a little, but then I think they diverge eventually and become inversely correlated more of the time. There isn’t a great correlation between the miners and the stock market, or oil, or the dollar, etc….. That’s why I like the mining sector, it is kinda correlated and non-correlated to everything during different cycles and news narratives (ie wartime/fear trade as safe have, or currency hedge, or as a commodity supply demand, or macro commodity picture, or area play getting exciting, etc…)

          Good luck to everyone in these turbulent times!

    bb
    May 02, 2015 02:01 AM

    I read Stewart Thomson often so it was interesting listening to him.

      May 03, 2015 03:21 PM

      I agree bb. Al & Cory, thanks for having Stewart Thomson on the weekend show.

    bb
    May 02, 2015 02:33 AM

    Seg 6. Who is Peter?
    Mentioning hyperinflation, I don’t believe there has ever been a hyperinflation with a reserve currency. Anyone know of one?
    We could get high inflation, but that’s different.
    The question really would be more along the lines of how high could inflation be as the world drops the American dollar as a reserve currency.
    I guess we would have to look at the results Portugal,Spain,Netherlands,France and Britain as they were replaced as the reserve currency to find some clues.
    Not sure if going back as far as the Byzantine Empire would be necessary but maybe, math was the same then.
    Of course there has been more paper and digits created this time than ever before too.

      May 02, 2015 02:50 AM

      bb you and Bird are going to want to read this

      The key is if the ECB has instructed European banks to stop their short selling of the Euro$ by restricting trading limits between banks.

      Going to be a very crazy summer and fall

      http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30139

        May 02, 2015 02:17 AM

        One should note the eventual 80 Euro$ level would create golds bottom and other commodities like oil looking forward into 2016 as the US$ hits 120+ just another reason why we all should trade our positions, buy and hold will rob you of excellent profits and add a lot of undue stress!

          bb
          May 02, 2015 02:21 AM

          I think your right on that point JJ.
          Thx for the link.

          May 02, 2015 02:34 AM

          That’s an excellent point on gold and the euro jj. I will have to mull that one over a bit.

          May 02, 2015 02:35 AM

          🙂

          May 03, 2015 03:22 PM

          Original JJ, I completely agree on trading positions instead of just they buy and hold to maximize profits and get out of the way during distressed periods of time.

      May 02, 2015 02:57 AM

      It’s has never happened and won’t. Something gold bugs dreamed up.

        May 02, 2015 02:59 AM

        That’s hyperinflation I’m refering too

          May 03, 2015 03:49 AM

          Weimer Republic Germany……1919-1933?

            May 03, 2015 03:13 PM

            sorry, misread your question and answer………

        May 03, 2015 03:44 PM

        In order to stay a reserve currency…..The IMF says two things are required.
        1.The currency must be issued by a large trading nation.
        2.The currency must hold it’s value vis-à-vis with other commodities over time.
        THE fed has been inflating the dollar massively, reducing it’s purchasing power in relation to other commodities…………Per Mises Institue.

    May 02, 2015 02:00 AM

    Just a thought—-I’m no longer focused entirely on the PM prices; instead, I’m focused now on PM stocks. One would think that if gold hits the 800s as a potential based on certain of Rick’s pivot point prices being met, then it would be a “no brainer” not to purchase PM stocks for awhile. That type of reasoning has already been proven to be fallacious since a very few stocks have shown their strength against stagnant to down PM pricing. PM stocks are now showing signs of diverging from the PM pricing. Based on the above, if one now starts purchasing some producing companies with improving financials and some exploration companies with expanding reserves, washed out prices, and plenty of liquidity to carry them through these times, I believe you’re in a good position to really benefit when the PMs turn around in price. However, as mentioned ad infinitum, we will “languish for awhile—-however, that does not prevent higher breakouts by PM stocks where they develop new trading ranges again for large period of times.

      May 02, 2015 02:13 PM

      Those are fantastic points Doc, and the quality small and mid-tier producers have been chugging along even on the down days in the underlying metals. The miners are diverging from the metals, but they can’t just ignore the spot prices either.

      People have gotten comfortable and complacent at the 1200 Gold range, and so investors are starting to pile into a few quality names. However, if Gold pulled back to $1000 (+/- 10%) then even the quality stocks still may sell down by 20%, and this would be a morale killer and sentiment drag.

      A few of the miners may have gotten a little ahead of themselves coming out of the starting gate so quick since Novemeber, and Gold breaks those lows, it doesn’t mean the miners will break their lows, but they could still pull back severly. This is the only reason I haven’t gone all in, but am accumulating positions when we get bad or oversold pullbacks in the miners. I’d actually love one last bloodbath pullback in mining stocks in the next few months, because I’d finally back up the truck. I’ve been waiting almost 4 years to finish building the foundation for my 3-5 year mining positions, and that would be the moment.

        May 02, 2015 02:48 PM

        Shad, I think the end of summer will see some of these stocks lower and If it pans out like I think, I’ll add bigger positions to what I have and others that have moved lower that I like. I think you’ll get your wish with some of these stocks.

          May 03, 2015 03:17 PM

          Thanks for your thoughts Doc. Much appreciated, and it will be interesting to see if we get that pullback to go on shopping spree at the discount prices. My only concern, is that there are many people waiting for that moment, and it will bring in a bunch of buying pressure, so he pullback in miners may not be as significant as some are hoping for.

      May 02, 2015 02:03 PM

      The gold juniors bore me to tears but if I can say one thing a few have actually really been profitable, I can’t stand watching paint dry but if some gold juniors keep making me money on low volume who cares?

        May 03, 2015 03:18 PM

        Agreed DT. It would seem that in the near future they’ll be a breakout one way or the other with some momentum, so it should get more exciting at the end of this week.

    May 02, 2015 02:08 AM

    Day need a cashless computer money system ! To continue building the total control world prison ! PLEASE START PAY IN CASH !

      May 02, 2015 02:17 AM

      You can try paying cash Frank. But what you may not realize is that some banks already want fees to process straight cash because it is cumbersome and time consuming.

      So retailers are responding by discouraging paper money transactions. That happens to suit them pretty well in a lot of cases too. No cash means fewer robberies and less risk for employees and managers who have to handle money at the end of each business day.

      So if merchants refuse cash the game is over. The consumer might *want* to pay cash but if the seller won’t accept it then what are you going to do? This has already been going on for many years.

      Try settling accounts with wholesalers, manufacturers and distributors with paper money for example. Try buying anything over a few hundred dollars with paper notes. Some of them will just laugh at you.

      Like what planet did you come from that told you it was OK to hand thick wads of money to the driver who was doing a delivery to your business? If you follow what I am telling you here you will appreciate the move to cashless systems has already begun long ago with business to business dealings.

      Its only Grannies who want to root around in their purse and pay with coins and small bills.

        May 02, 2015 02:32 AM

        I in business long time ! i NOW BIRDMAN I will PAYI BANKS So long i can !

          May 02, 2015 02:41 PM

          Bird ! This ALL will bring horrible times

        May 02, 2015 02:38 AM

        BIRD……that is franky……….NOT THE BOOT FRANK………. 🙂

    May 02, 2015 02:57 AM

    “T. Boone Pickens: U.S. oil to jump to $70 a barrel by year-end”

    “Watch Serwer and I talk about where I think the price of oil is going.” http://yhoo.it/1EBn642

      May 02, 2015 02:35 AM

      Funny, but that’s just what I said yesterday. 70 bucks is my target.

        May 02, 2015 02:03 AM

        T. Boone reads KER
        -you heard it here first.

        He sure likes Canada, eh?

        I don’t really buy the supply/demand story for higher prices. It seems to me that oil should be stable around $45 to $55. Any great deviation from that range is due to speculation. Think Bill O’Reilly.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32NnqWqNJ1I

          May 02, 2015 02:20 AM

          Actually Irwin, I was thinking great minds think alike. 🙂

            May 02, 2015 02:06 PM

            THE VATICAN CONTROL THE WORLD ! Leon Panetta and Janet Napolitano day boutte Graduate ate the ( JESUITS SANTA CLARA UNIVERSITY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WAKE UP DAY PLAY US !

            May 02, 2015 02:27 PM

            franky………..is on top of things…………..good man……………

            May 02, 2015 02:32 PM

            Meaning you and Pickens? I klnow…it was a joke…..

            May 02, 2015 02:57 PM

            Ha! Funny Irwin. But that was not a joke.

            Do you bend your knees to everyone with a bigger bank account than yourself? I think that’s known as the cult of hero worship; an affliction suffered by most people who only understand power and money as the true sources of authority in the world.

            I place no earthly person above me though because we are all created equal at the outset. I know how big your boat is for example. So are you telling me that everyone in your area with a bigger boat is better than you?

            Be careful who you worship, friend.

            May 03, 2015 03:34 AM

            Of course, I was talking to Gator in that post, not to Irwin. Cripes, I need more sleep.

          May 02, 2015 02:25 AM

          Ralph Acampora is another great mind.
          https://twitter.com/Ralph_Acampora

    May 02, 2015 02:33 AM

    I think Belkin needs to look at gold and the dollar again. Gold has been dropping whether the dollar is rising or dropping.

      May 02, 2015 02:40 AM

      Precisely Gary. Even more notable was the dollar plunge of a couple days back and gold hardly even budged that day. No correlation. The other thing is that the dollar dropped 5% in just the second half of April…while gold lost almost 40 dollars in the exact same time fame. I would wager Michael does not follow the metals markets quite as closely as most here do.

        May 03, 2015 03:27 AM

        Bird, compare like items…if the dollar dropped 5%, what percentage did gold drop..you compared the dollar in percentage terms and gold in dollar terms…makes one look better or worse because $40.00 sounds greater than 5%. Did you do this on purpose to highlight your point?

          May 03, 2015 03:44 AM

          The point was they dropped together.

      May 02, 2015 02:04 AM

      Yes, there is no simple correlation anymore for gold and oil that you can use for trading based on the dollar index. It is just best to follow the technical & sentiment regardless of what is in the news.

        May 02, 2015 02:21 AM

        News will just mess up your trades. I agree Paul.

        May 02, 2015 02:29 PM

        I agree Paul. The assumptions of correlations of days gone by are no longer showing as valid, and we have entered a new paradigm (new normal). Everything is obviously connected, but it is dangerous to say (if this…then this…if that….then that) because things are breaking down and reorganizing at a higher level = bifurcation.

          May 02, 2015 02:32 PM

          And possibly even trifurcation 😉

            May 02, 2015 02:17 PM

            Good one!

    May 02, 2015 02:40 AM

    And I would suggest that the dollar only has maybe another week to fall before it heads back up.

      May 02, 2015 02:53 AM

      Gary next Fri NFP if weak will continue the $’s decline, another good NFP and the $ bottoms even though we all know US NFP is a complete scam

        May 02, 2015 02:15 AM

        JJ,
        I would suggest that a poor number next Friday may create a final spike low bottom.

        The dollar appears to be in it’s final bloodbath phase and those usually only last about 5-7 days. Sop a final intermediate bottom should form next week.

          May 02, 2015 02:33 PM

          I would agree with that Gary and I’m watch to see what the action is like on the 7th compared to the 8th (pre and post Jobs number). I think a bad report will send the dollar down to as low as 92 by the following week after the jobs report, and then it turns around and starts a climb higher.

          This is also why I feel the general markets may still correct another 2-4% in the next 2 weeks, and PMs may get a boost during this equity and dollar weakness. Hard to say though, because Gold acted very counter-intuitively last week.

            May 03, 2015 03:01 AM

            The dollar already started to bounce up a little but that will result in a dead cat bounce at most. It is NOT going to recover Gary. Not if that is what you are thinking .Lets review it later on down the road. This overarching trend is down for the foreseeable future.

    May 02, 2015 02:55 AM

    The dollar looks like it’s ready to head north Monday.
    And gold headed further south. I think the strong mining sector sucked the bulls in and they got trapped. However, that’s a story for Monday , or not.

      May 03, 2015 03:04 AM

      That’s just an opportunity to sell the dollar Chartster. A lot of guys want to exit their long dollar trades right now. They have been holding back waiting for a bounce to get out intact. Take this as a selling chance, not a place to get long again except as a short term trade.

    May 02, 2015 02:57 AM

    seg#3 its to bad Bilkin didn’t tell the listners that he site is a trading service not just a buy side subscription great to be long pm’s stocks when they pop which has been many times these past 2+ years but how about locking in gains, that’s far far more important than holding as your winner becomes a loser time and time again,wish you would have asked Al, oh well

    May 02, 2015 02:01 AM

    Gold stays cheap until the paper markets lose pricing power. That occurs when the only supply out there is the actual mined supply. When people have run out of scrap, and the weak hands like El Salvador, Venezuela, Ukraine, Greece have all sold out, then the paper markets end.

      May 02, 2015 02:30 AM

      It does appear that gold and silver have been concentrating into the hands of a select group of Central Banks and Trading Houses over the past few years. Weaker countries and the war torn have been coughing up the goods for a long time now. Libya and Cyprus are two other examples. Makes you wonder where it is all leading as even many African nations are busy producing and selling off their gold for the major powers. Now even India wants to get its privately held gold into official reserves. Hmmmm.

        May 02, 2015 02:36 PM

        There is definitely hording going on in the BRICS and the East, and the rest of world is happily giving away all their precious metals. If there is a legitimate interest in getting back the flows that left the ETFS and all the scrap supply that was melted down, then this will be price positive about 1-3 years out. This is why 2015 will be the slow turnaround, and 2016 and 2017 should be quite bullish for the metals and their mining sectors.

          May 03, 2015 03:08 AM

          Actually, I was thinking that if a large enough percentage of metals were in the hands of the worlds dominant Central Banks that they would be in a position to buy and sell amongst themselves indefinitely and thus manage the price at whatever level they chose for as long as they chose.

            May 03, 2015 03:00 PM

            That is the plan.

    May 02, 2015 02:02 AM

    The media had been calling for 3 to 4% gdp months ago. I think 1 to 2% is all we can get for years to come.

      May 02, 2015 02:37 PM

      The new normal.

    May 02, 2015 02:03 AM

    I think the USD will rally on Friday – once the UK election is in.

    There will be mayhem in the UK come Friday morning when the election results are known and the Pound will fall against the USD. But I think it will have a knock-on affect of panic generally causing the USD to begin rising again against all other currencies.

    May 02, 2015 02:05 AM

    Last friday (Asia close) the Bank of International Settlements orchestrated a $590 million sell order to put prices into reverse again …

    May 02, 2015 02:07 AM

    The gold etf’s should rally up to 40% from the end of July to the end of September and that will be the time to get out after buying in July. Maybe GDX from 15 to 21.

    May 02, 2015 02:21 AM

    seg #5 Rick right on, a global repeat of 2008 and everything is sold except the US$ which climbed 17 cents in 5 months while everything tanked as gold fell $300/30% so much for safe haven, lol

    Doc, I gotta tell you the past 2 years since the break of $1525 gold the HUI index on a weekly chart clearly shows the trading zone tops and bottoms, more than 200% has been made in the last 2 years trading in between the trend lines

    A show of hands please who would like to make a 100% gain on any investment, ok, ok everyone has both hands up, not taking a min 50% off any investment after 100% gains is basic trading 101 as there is a saying on wall st the greedy become the needy, take profits!!! crazy stuff Doc as any trader always scales out profits with gains

      May 02, 2015 02:43 PM

      Original, especially if you watch the BB trading zones of the monthly charts—-those really can control your risk if they’re moving laterally and you purchase at the lower BBs.

        May 02, 2015 02:03 PM

        Doc biggest problem with BB’s is they can run for a long time along the top band or bottom band as the price continues to rise or decline, not a leading indicator imo suggesting one to sell or buy.

          May 02, 2015 02:16 PM

          Original; I don’t know if you look at monthly charts but 2 of favorites are exeter (xra) and thompson creek (tc). The BBs on the monthly for exeter are some of the narrowest I’ve ever seen—-it’s truely amazing and the odds are that when this stock breaks out, it should happen to the upside. Then when you look at thompson creek, pricing is following the gently sloping lower BB down. There’s hardly any short term risk in purchasing that stock especially if you’re a trader—all a trader would need is a short term 50% move and that’s possible since the weekly BBs are almost high enough for a quick 50% move—some of these charts are truly fascinating right now.

            May 02, 2015 02:56 PM

            I do Doc, trade off daily/weekly combo and always have the Monthly for the big picture trend
            Your example TC, applying BB’s set your chart period between May 2008 to Dec 2008 as TC fell from $24 to $2 how would the BB’s suggested any investor long TC in the twenties to sell or more importantly not buy till Dec?
            Your basic MACD indicator would have had one making a killing shorting the stocks decline and getting long a few times during its 90% freefall

            May 02, 2015 02:40 PM

            DOC
            I have been glancing at two other indicators on my charts, trying to get a better feel for things; I must say, these are specifically for analyzing the stocks I own (i.e., not in general sense)
            1. I have added Keltner channels (20,2.0,10 )to my BB overlay. They diverge and I find it fascinating.
            2. I have added the ADX line, but I’m pretty much focusing on the +DI and -DI as pivot points

            If you get a chance, let me know if you think these are valuable tools?
            Brian

            May 02, 2015 02:14 PM

            Brian, I use the ADX aaaaalllllllll the time. It’s a huge indicator for me.

            May 03, 2015 03:12 AM

            Thanks for digging into that jj. I appreciate you man! That’s another excellent point.

            May 03, 2015 03:33 PM

            Doc, I agree with you on Exeter about to break out in a big way, and now that their water has de-risked their property further, I am convinced they are a prime takeover candidate. It will be very surprising if Exeter makes it 12 months without merging or doing a Joint Venture.

            Original JJ, I agree with you that the MACD is a better indicator than just watching Bollinger Bands, as stocks can bounce off the top or bottom bands for a while in a increasing or decreasing share price trend, but they are still helpful to keep an eye on.

    May 02, 2015 02:24 AM

    This has been a tough bear market. The charts of some of these juniors are unbelievably ghastly, an orgy of horror. And if gold goes to $800 like Rick says it will only continue.

    May 02, 2015 02:35 AM

    I am also against the pacific trade treaty . NAFTA is 30 years plus old and a failure for us workers . USA lost many more jobs than it gained with NAFTA . China would benifit, but China has lately been more of an enemy to USA than a friend. No real protection for asian workers . Again USA is net loser in this. S

    May 02, 2015 02:27 AM

    You made some really interesting comments in segment 5 Doc. Kind of funny but after listening to you I had the first flicker of interest in buying back into metals that I felt in a couple years now. Guess my bearishness was bound to start wearing off sooner or later. There is a season for everything.

      May 02, 2015 02:41 PM

      Well, Bird; I just have this feeling that I had years ago when I bought into a depressed mining industry. Then I just waited and waited and waited—-but in the end there was an explosion of all commodities. I still believe that 2016 is the earliest we really see the PMs make their move. But in the meantime, I’m slowly moving into the stocks on any pullbacks of the ones I like. I’m waiting others come down further. We’ve got to get through the summer months without too much damage to the metals.

        May 02, 2015 02:33 PM

        Maybe summer will be colder an snowier than usual, and the GDP won’t be as expected?

        😉

          May 03, 2015 03:20 AM

          It was probably inevitable that the better class of gold mining stock would eventually catch a bid and start to move up independent of the sector. Especially as equities have been in such a long bull already. But it seems its still just a relative handful of companies that people here have identified as being worthy that are going positive. Most of the thousands of metals miners are still comatose. But you still make an excellent point. If and when the market moves there will be mining stocks posting two, three. four hundred percent gains or more. Younger guys could retire early on the right selection of stocks that was bought at these bitter lows. Great interview btw, that’s the most optimism I have heard around here in quite awhile. The bug even bit me just a little.

          May 03, 2015 03:34 PM

          Funny Brian. Christmas in July caused the GDP to be smaller that we expected in the 3rd quarter of 2015…. I can hear it now.

    May 02, 2015 02:40 AM

    One way to dig out the local bottom for gold is when gold price is down for the day but gold miners are up.
    The same can be said for gold tops: when gold had an up day but gold miners are down, gold price is topped or about to top.

      May 02, 2015 02:38 PM

      We’re seeing more days like that over the last 2-3 months Gabriel. Great point.

    May 02, 2015 02:43 PM

    Stewart Thomson is dead on. My portfolio of miners was up on gold’s big down days this week and finished the week up about 11%. while gold finished down 2.7%.

      May 02, 2015 02:15 PM

      Yes, there is definitely a divergence showing between the miners and the underlying metals, for sure.

        May 02, 2015 02:04 PM

        Correction: Gold finished the week down just .23% but the point is the same.
        Also a very good sign is that silver finished the week UP 2.61%.

        May 02, 2015 02:31 PM

        I like the key words, that are emerging for 2015, trying to explain what is happening:
        o Divergence
        o Bifurcation (or trifurcation which is 50% better)
        o Rotation

        Any others that people like?

          May 03, 2015 03:38 AM

          o boot
          o hoot
          o toot

          May 03, 2015 03:24 PM

          Reallocation of assets
          Turbulence
          counter-intuitive market forces
          stagflation
          immigration
          trans-migration
          supplementation
          constipation (from the markets)

            May 03, 2015 03:47 PM

            you need the ” ooooooo” to have a valid answer 🙂

            May 03, 2015 03:05 PM

            o Reallocation of assets
            o Turbulence
            o counter-intuitive market forces
            o stagflation
            o immigration
            o trans-migration
            o supplementation
            o constipation (from the markets)
            o liberation (from tyranny)
            o confiscation (through taxes)
            o confusion
            o delusion
            o ignorance
            o hope
            o inspiration
            o creativity
            o ingenuity
            o cat and mouse
            o pin the tail on the jack-arse
            o Federal Reserve member pinatas – filled with monopoly money (fun to beat on)

            May 03, 2015 03:52 PM

            o ditto

            May 03, 2015 03:35 PM

            o high five to Frank from moscow

    May 02, 2015 02:18 PM

    Re. Seg. 6: Gold is still UP 179% vs the Dow since it bottomed in 1999. At 1177 gold, the Dow would have to reach 52,000 in order to exceed its 1999 gold value peak.

    Conclusion: Since the REAL peak in the economy, gold is the winner, hands down, and it is about to do a lot more winning in the years just ahead.

      May 02, 2015 02:03 PM

      Winning!

    May 02, 2015 02:31 PM

    As always, great stats, Mr. knarF.

    May 02, 2015 02:14 PM

    I sold some healthcare stocks on Friday they are due for a turn down but now I like the junior gold companies with proven resources that will start to see some M&A, markets are so fickle that you need to understand that nothing is forever and when you get a downturn in anything the investors may not come back to that commodity for years no matter what you think. Ride with the herd but get out before the herd changes direction.

      May 02, 2015 02:36 PM

      DT….there is a great article at zerohedge concerning the value of CANADIAN REAL ESTATE, …suggesting that it is overvalued by 30-67%. Just thought you might be interested ,since you mentioned the same many times before……..best the long boot.

        May 03, 2015 03:26 AM

        If Canadian real estate corrects back to the mean like US markets did it is going to be one very bloody ride for homeowners there. But don’t worry….its different in Canada!

          May 03, 2015 03:24 AM

          I do not think it will be “if”, but, when.

            May 03, 2015 03:29 AM

            BILL……..might have some great comments to add here, since, he mentioned that he was thinking of moving , because the VALUES were to high in his neighborhood……Boot on the ground. 🙂

          May 03, 2015 03:48 PM

          Wouldn’t hold your breath on that

    May 02, 2015 02:38 PM

    Oil price is moving up Steadily. The panic low appears to be over. We at least should have added a good position using the weakness. How many people have done it? Unlike gold, oil does not deviate from real value for long.

    May 02, 2015 02:32 PM

    I think as profoundly improbable as it may seem to the vast majority of the tunnel visioned bug’s, and the hard currency conspiratorial community that somehow the over-crowded dollar trade cannot remain strong for an extended period of time, I think is going to shock both dollar bulls/bears equally in its staying power for potentially as long as the next 18-24 months.

    The world is facing a stunning confluence of well documented history making events/changes that will lead to a global generational reshuffling of the financial and geopolitical deck chairs not even thought as possible only a few short years ago.

    The incoherent dollar strength which seems to confound and bewilder the average skeptic, rightfully so, is a paradox of the modern monetary alchemy of a universal fiat currency of mispriced paper values coupled with a global “Imploding Death Star” of unpayable debt compounded by incompetent, immoral and just simply deranged political leadership world-wide.

    Even though profoundly clownish and incompetent political figures and criminal banking elite’s try to act and maneuver globally to convince the masses that they have full control of this debt ridden, decaying and dying system, objective intellectually honest observers know better and are trying to side-step gov firewalls that try to prevent people from protecting themselves in alternate financial assets.

    Authentic, open mined and rational everyday people know that when the rubber meets the road and push comes to shove there is really no one in control at this moment in time.

    The system has effectively self-assimilated into a “Financial Borg Construct” to the extent that the trillions of dollars that are circulating the globe in reserve banking and transactional applications aren’t valued and wanted from a fundamental perspective of quality, but more from a closed feed-back loop of diminishing exit points and a formidable lack of competition that naturally helps to facilitate the dollar strength through the shear size and magnitude of its dominance.

    I firmly believe that the rational deep thinkers and those that can remain flexible will achieve the most success and defy the odds by using this human induced financial malaise and changing of the global guard to their eventual advantage and profitability as the endgame plays out over the next three to five years.

    I expect the dollar over the coming year or two to continue to trade higher with significant bouts and gyrations both down and up. But instead of sitting in the corner bitching about what you cannot control, use this valuable time to continue to accumulate high quality physical and high quality paper assets that will not only hold value, but gain in value even with a potentially strengthening dollar paradigm.

    The opportunity to position ones-self is fast coming to a close, so for myself personally, I continue to welcome dollar strength and hope like hell it actually plays out for a while longer so I can continue to add productive and valuable assets to my families portfolio that to our benefit continue to remain on sale, but only temporally due to a once in lifetime global financial and geographical power shift.

    V

      May 02, 2015 02:28 PM

      Great thoughts V.

        May 02, 2015 02:58 PM

        Thank you Skeeta.

        take care.

        May 03, 2015 03:29 AM

        Great post Skeeta. But I disagree!

          May 03, 2015 03:30 AM

          Sorry, I meant to say great post Vortex. Forgive me, have the flu so I am only 50% here.

            May 03, 2015 03:29 AM

            Bird
            Short term you maybe right on the $US
            Longer term I don’t think so.
            Cheers.

            May 03, 2015 03:57 AM

            OK, no problem. But you have to understand that the dollar MUST be knocked down if interest rates are going to rise. We cannot end the age of low rates that are an effective measure to manage gross public indebtedness and then do so without attacking the debt through devaluations and inflation.

            Expect higher inflation then if you agree the Fed and other Central Banks will indeed raise rates. I have mentioned this innumerable times already but it just does not sink in with most. They project both a high dollar and inflation simultaneously or they will even contend rates can NEVER rise.

            Of course rates can rise!. The market is already handing the economy tightening credit conditions. And of course the Fed does not control the entire rate spectrum anyway. Even on a cycles basis you can readily chart that we will soon enter a period of both rising interest rates and real inflation.

            Look at this another way…..would you agree we are near the bottom of the commodity bear cycle? Well what does that tell you if not that inflationary impulses are coming our way once resource prices begin to rise again?

            And if resource prices rise and inflation does indeed begin to assert itself (it will) then its a no-brainer that interest rates will also be trending upwards. Under such a scenario what will have to be broken is dollar strength and I contend that is happening already as we move closer to the final stages of the commodity bear market ending.

            I am looking for a decline in the weighted dollar all the way back to .66 which is a 35% loss of buying power relative to today. Do not kid yourself that the Treasury and Fed can engineer a dollar that drops steadily for several years to come.

            In fact, it is far easier to kill the dollar than it is to either raise rates off the bottom or induce a genuine economic expansion so just keep in mind that when push comes to shove it is monetary tools that will come to the forefront and they will be intent on crushing dollar strength since that is one area our financial authorities still hold power over.

            In short, the dollar will take a dive because it MUST if rates are going to be normalized. This is why I keep telling anyone here who will listen that I have absolutely zero doubts about how this aspect of our future will play out.

            May 03, 2015 03:17 AM

            Bird, sorry to hear about the flu getting you down. Get well soon.

            V

            May 03, 2015 03:39 AM

            I lost my voice Vortex. Like 75% gone. My wife is just loving it. I cannot argue back right now or bitch about the usual. Best I can do is sulk. She just laughs. Man, that gal is the she-devil sometimes!

      BDC
      May 04, 2015 04:27 AM

      You are right until you’re wrong.

      The lead backed dollar is simply
      one destroyed carrier group away
      from decimation.

      It may not happen in our time,
      and the future is not ours to tell.

    May 02, 2015 02:51 PM

    (OT) Alexco

    I tripped across this on the Yahoo message board.
    Is Alexco looking for a new CEO to replace Clynt Nauman?

    ca.indeed.com/cmp/Alexco-Resource-Corp./jobs/President-CEO-f5cd86a2e299c480

      May 02, 2015 02:52 PM

      By the way, I delete the “http” from my links to ensure the link gets added here on KER

      May 02, 2015 02:55 PM

      And this is the Yahoo message board post that I found interesting, regarding the HUGE undervaluation of Alexco, because they have a VERY profitable subsidiary.

      —Cut&Paste: BEGIN —
      AEG projected to do $16-17M revenue this year and income of $5.5-6M.
      They have almost $100M in backlog (6-7 years) and are able to grow faster with some capital.

      Using 2.5 revenue and 6X P/E value of this unit is about $35-40M vs. AXU market cap of $27.6M (41 cents per share).

      AXU has reserves / resources of about 50M ozs high grade 700 g/T silver with exploration potential of
      added 25M ozs. next 2-3 years. This silver is worth $1-2 per ounce in the ground.

      Plus they have functional modern 400 tpd mill on site worth $30-35M (original cost in 2010 of $50M).

      Total market value is $150M conservatively or $2+ per share
      — END —

        May 02, 2015 02:08 PM

        Brian, what’s the share float?

          May 02, 2015 02:11 PM

          From Yahoo: 64.58M

          May 02, 2015 02:17 PM

          Also, the reserves have increase by 10%, recently to 55M

          finance.yahoo.com/news/alexco-announces-indicated-silver-estimate-080000144.html

          So. Pretty much 1 share will buy you .90 ounces of silver (in the ground),
          without considering the profitable Environmental group.

            May 02, 2015 02:27 PM

            And to be transparent (and honest), I have purchased my core AXU shares @ $US 0.33.

            In my opinion (as Al would say “This is NOT invested advice”), Alexco has huge potential IF (and it’s a big if) silver gets above $US18. Alexco has indicated that their TARGET AISC is $US15, but historic is closer to $US21. I just use the average 😉

          May 02, 2015 02:34 PM

          I must add this: Matthew has been the only ONE other person enthusiastic about Alexco

            May 03, 2015 03:42 AM

            Yes, I’ll take AXU over the “safer” plays any day. Believe it or not, my best buy happened at just 26.05 cents.

            May 03, 2015 03:42 PM

            03/11/2015: $0.27

            May 03, 2015 03:27 PM

            I have been positive in the past on Alexco. Once we get back to a silver price of $19 and higher, Alexco is gonna be raking it in. This is a good time to be a contrarian and pick up Alexco shares at a discount.

    May 02, 2015 02:01 PM

    Regardless of any preconceived notions of Anything.

    The fact of the matter is that the junior miners that are posers absolutely must go out of business , and they will!

    What forces that to happen will be falling gold prices.

    It will happen, regardless of your beliefs. Period!
    Goldbug or not! ( and I’m a gold bug )

    May 02, 2015 02:26 PM

    Thanks for another great weekend show fella’s
    Much appreciated.

    May 02, 2015 02:20 PM

    Shad,

    In a prior post you said:

    I’ve been doing Brainwave Entrainment and Self-Hypnosis to get more quality sleep and compounded sleep in less time. Cheers, and don’t forget to power nap.

    Does this work? I have a lot of problems with sleep: getting to sleep, staying asleep, getting enough deep sleep, general insomnia and always feeling tired.
    Would what you do work for these problems?

      May 03, 2015 03:41 PM

      Yes, besides nutrition, watching calorie intake 2 hours before sleeping, then there are a number of things once can do to get more restful sleep and higher quality sleep:

      – meditation, yoga, contemplative prayer, whatever works for you
      – music, sound therapy, music with embedded brainwaves (Delta are best for sleep)
      – Hemisync and Holysynch – brain entrainment (you use headphones and your right brain hemishere is getting a slightly different sound frequency than the left brain hemisphere, and your brain will subtract the difference and vibrate at that brain wave).
      – Self-hypnosis – people think its kooky but both my grandfather and father stopped smoking with it, my dad lost 180 pounds from it, and that got my attention at an early age. After decades more investigation I’ve come to experience that self-hypnosis can be used as powerful auto-suggestion tool to the subconscious mind, which can assist among many things….in better sleep and more restful quality sleep.

        May 03, 2015 03:22 PM

        Do you have any recommended resources (books, articles, etc.) for the above. I tried hypnosis a long time ago but couldn’t get the hang of it. I know people who have been helped by it and others who tried but didn’t get much out of it.

          May 03, 2015 03:43 PM

          I would recommend the following for Brainwave entrainment:

          1) company HemiSync, 2) company Holosync 3) Brainwave CDs from Dr. Jeffrey Thompson

          2) Self-hypnosis – The best way to learn to do it on your own is to use guided hypnosis downloads or CDS and headphones. ALL hypnosis is SELF hypnosis, and it always is a result of you deciding to relax the conscious mind and it’s defense systems, and allow communication with the subconscious mind. Most people waste the first 1-2 hours and last 1 hour of sleep not really in REM sleep and tossing/turning. If you can bypass that and go straight to REM sleep, and more importantly “prepare” the body for deep relaxation consciously and then enhance this using auto-suggestion then the body believes it and gets more rest in short amounts of time. It’s a fascinating body/mind relationship.

          Good luck and sweet dreams 🙂

    May 03, 2015 03:34 AM

    From Martin today, comes a long article about the advent of what he terms “economic totalitarianism” in the age of the cashless society. He makes some good arguments and expresses the fears that are easily implied when cash transactions no longer exist and absolutely every penny of income and expenses are tracked.

    I am a little bit fatalistic on this topic though. We have ALREADY gone cashless for the most part. It seems to me impossible to now avoid what is the conclusion of a 40 year period of rapid technological and electronic growth in the transaction business.

    In other words, arguing against the inevitable is a bit like closing the barn door after the horse has already bolted and run away. That is a waste of time. Instead I would offer an alternative solution. It is now almost time to take steps strategically to turn cash into tradeable liquid assets.

    The end of cash ironically may also bring about a new age of barter which is the only plausible opportunity for an outgrowth of the transaction business that is not wholly recorded from its inception to conclusion.

    There is going to be a new kind of life cycle to the way that business and consumption will function under a system of pure electronic commerce. Few will be able to get ahead in life by doing odd jobs (untaxed) or providing services and production that is outside of the review of authority.

    In all probability, people born into the new system will earn no more than their net pay nor save a penny more than what is remaining after expenses for the duration of their lives. Every surplus can be questioned. Every excess over the stated amounts will be a matter of the public record. Every shortage will draw questions as those expenses might only be attributed to the black markets or illegal activities.

    Even gambling, the last bastion of money laundering will go all electronic eventually. Both the house and the gamer will have to account for losses and wins with no slippage happening between. So the loop will close where double entry accounting suddenly takes on a whole new meaning for people who don’t even know what that terms means.

    It strikes me as oddly ironic that barter would be the obvious outcome to a public that is not really smitten with the idea of a cashless society. Old will meet new again and the methods of commerce that predate our technological age will create two layers of business. One for the records, the other for the last of the entrepreneurs.

    But of course, you cannot play if you don’t have anything to trade!

    The New Age of Economic Totalitarianism & the London Meeting to End Currency
    http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/30145

      May 03, 2015 03:05 AM

      And btw…would some of you people stop saying that Martin does not read this blog! This is one of his favourites. Look at his posts for the evidence. He has in fact responded lmost directly to what many of the people here have been discussing in the past few days. Not saying he likes any of us…..just that the Kerr Report is a good source of fresh ideas that are often trending ahead of the crowd. And it all starts with gold because it functions as a kind of anchor that we can use to better understand other parts of the market and economy. I know it works for me that way. Precious metals are like a beacon and center of focus from which to judge how all else is moving.

        May 03, 2015 03:23 AM

        Bird,
        If Martin read this blog….it would only be for giggles.
        Cheers.

          May 03, 2015 03:32 AM

          Agreed Skeeta,

          MA is busy counting his cash to read or comment on anything posted here.

          V

            May 03, 2015 03:41 AM

            Don’t kid yourselves. He is not the only one either. The lineup of guests and the topics covered are themselves reason enough to listen in and tap into the mood in the worry section of the investment world. That’s because not all ideas that express fears for the future or paranoia are wrong……..they are often just early.

        May 03, 2015 03:46 PM

        This is a hip forum and everyone including most analysts, economists, and newsletter writers get curious as to what the word on the street is over at the Korelin Economic Reports. We surf the future……

          May 03, 2015 03:50 PM

          Shad………..is spot on…………….always been that way to boot.

      May 03, 2015 03:47 AM

      Howdy Bird,

      The key take away from Martin Armstrong’s warning echo’s my warning’s as well. This impending move to a cashless nightmare that you seem to eagerly accept an advocate with extreme excitement is in and of it self not the problem. The problem extends to the aggressive finality of the draconian measures and the total and complete abrogation of freedoms that will be lost for good on every level because no options means total control by the State financial taxing and currency control Oligarchs.

      Yes non-thinking, unenlightened, dumbed-down people all across the globe that are effectively just sleep walking through life that have chosen only to pay with debit cards or credit cards or some other card are probably the same people who can’t find their a$$ with both hands or find the United Stated or any other well known country on a global map. In other word’s they lack a true understanding of what this change will mean in a big picture setting.

      I’m basically done with this subject because I’m as opposed to this tyrannical hair brained last gasp hail mary scheme by bankers and politicians and their BS propaganda as you are of hearing about a strong dollar.

      Yes, it is true that 60/70 % of all retail transaction are done with plastic……..or whatever the number is, I’m not sure. I could care less though, that is not the point and never has been.

      The point is, that cash works absolutely fine and is a secondary option to holding currency and should remain so on a global basis if a individual chooses to use that transaction format. That’s the entire point, there is an option that is available.

      Once the cashless paradigm is imposed and enforced………and it will be enforced like all government edict’s are, through the barrel of a gun that will render you as expendable if you refuse to obey or attempt work outside of their system.

      So we’ll just agree to disagree on the cashless world that awaits dead ahead.

      You can continue to speak from the bully pulpit on the resounding beauty of the new coming cashless paradigm with a fancy bank generated card or your swell little I Phone App that transfers those 1’s and 0’s and I’ll continue to be an outdated heretic hated by the PTB and continue to advocate for what little fleeting snippets of choice, freedom and options we have left.

      Oh and let me close by saying that right after the PTB give’s the world that neat little cashless planet, you can bet your bottom cashless dollar that shortly after that you will get your goldless and silverless paradigm too.

      Because after all, the gov is looking out for you and they don’t want you to have to handle those dirty gold and silver coins either.

      Be very careful what you wish for my friend.

        May 03, 2015 03:15 AM

        That’s terrific Vortex. Great post. But don’t try running away from the topic so quickly because I suspect its going to intrude on our lives more and more in the coming years.

        As far as advocacy goes I don’t know that I am the poster boy for a cashless society. I am just taking note of the obvious and adding up the odds of where the trajectory is taking us.

        I do however favour the idea of money being created by the market; another term for corporate cash. And with the advent of Bitcoin type money being supported and developed by Goldman for wider use with the backing of major corporate interests (credit card companies et al) I think that is now in the cards.

        The thing is, I don’t believe this can be avoided. The rapid advances in computing, software, storage and speed have merged with money, banking and transaction processing such that a cashless world is virtually inevitable.

        So when I discuss it my thoughts are with an eye to understanding what life will be like in the future and how we might live inside that new system. It is why I wrote above that I think barter will reassert itself and perhaps why, as LPG suggested the other day, that gold and silver will have a very special role to play in the future.

        What is taking place is actually revolutionary. It is going to fundamentally change our relationship to wealth and how it is accumulated and preserved. Some who understand the implications will no doubt also appreciate that they need to port liquid wealth over to the other side so that it’s legitimized BEFORE all transactions go electronic.

        I guess all I can say is this: “Why worry?”.

        We were heading in this direction anyway and the public has for the most part already accepted the basic principles of electronic cash. Nobody has been forced or coerced in the process. What we are seeing is really an organic outgrowth of our own imaginations where advances in technology are married to our desires to earn, spend, save and invest with ease and to do it seamlessly across borders and in spite of differences in currency regimes around the world.

        Cashless is how we are all getting connected.

          May 03, 2015 03:46 AM

          Well Bird that was a very nice rebuttal as well. Always well thought out.

          Even though we disagree to some extent, I acknowledge that you make very valid points that are based on logic and truth and most of realistic probabilities.

          As I’ve said many time’s before, I’m simply a relic of the past. The words you and I exchange will have no bearing on the direction the global power players wish to take humanity.

          Logic and reality dictate that I not run away from these important technological changes or the discussions that may come about as a result of that change. But logic and commonsense do require that I understand my limited ability to effect change even if I disagree with the profound scale of those changes.

          As an aside on the dollar strength issue. Not wanting to be ambiguous on the issue from a longer-term perspective. It may surprise you to know that at my core I’m a huge dollar bear and expect the dollar to eventually go lower than your estimated .66.

          So, in short, I’m a temporary dollar bull due to extreme geopolitical events and potential unforeseen black swans globally. So we’re not that far apart on the big picture.

          All we’re talking about at this point is the time parameters involved.

          V

            May 03, 2015 03:55 AM

            As Armstrong stated a very long time ago when he first posted about the coming cashless societies

            THE main reason is to prevent global bank runs, you can’t ask for your cash if its digital!
            THIS is why the G20 will be cashless economies as they prepare for the global implosion of debt held at all levels from municipalities to federal to corporations to main street.

            May 03, 2015 03:10 AM

            Actually jj, it was me who wrote that. Martin picked up on it afterwards. Check it for yourself. It’s on this site.

            May 03, 2015 03:54 AM

            Actually bird it was my neighbours 7 year old that first mentioned it when he over heard his father and I talking about the coming digital currencies vs paper money, my point is anyone with some common sense should realize the why behind the reason the major governments will be eliminating cash, bank runs and avoidance of taxes

            I’m very certain Armstrong could careless what anyone here thinks about anything!

            May 03, 2015 03:36 AM

            If only common sense was so common….then you might have made a better case 🙂

            bb
            May 03, 2015 03:53 AM

            You guys are talking about a “universal consciousness”.
            There really is no way of telling who thought of somthing first.
            That’s why when we come up with an idea you need to rush to the patent office because someone else is on the way.

    May 03, 2015 03:25 AM

    I ROBOT is not only coming it’s here and the jobs are disappearing leaving humans very vulnerable, believe it! http://www.businessinsider.com/experts-predict-that-one-third-of-jobs-will-be-replaced-by-robots-2015-5

      May 03, 2015 03:08 AM

      Time to go into maintaining the robots business. The Chinese middle class should watch out, for their incomes will be effected more by the robots……jmho

        May 03, 2015 03:45 PM

        Robot repair…..the next big trend.

    LPG
    May 03, 2015 03:58 AM

    Hope everyone is having a good week-end.
    A few additional thoughts.

    I think that by now, we now realize that when the paper cash windows really starts to shrink (being closed), then governments can easily tax ANYTHING.
    In simple terms, they will be able to tax wealth on a recurring basis – something France has implemented years ago with the so-called ISF (Impot Sur la Fortune – litterally translated as: Tax on Wealth – which targets only individuals with wealth ABOVE a certain level).
    Over the now past 2 yrs, I have mentioned to several acquaintances around me that soon this tax on wealth will spread to many OECD countries. They are still in disbelief and still …think this cannot be implemented but my sense it is just a matter of time before they realize that they HAVE to unfortunately believe it for it will be soon, at some point, a reality.

    Martin Armstrong just put out an article on his blog:
    “Australia First to Introduce a Compulsory Tax on Money Itself”
    LINK: —> http://armstrongeconomics.com/archives/date/2015/05
    IMHO, here’s an interesting bit in that post: (QUOTE)
    “Abbott also said there would be some hard decisions in the new budget because this was inevitable.
    For the banks, the government’s plans are anything but good news. […]
    This decision of a tax on savings would seriously harm the government and if there are any smart Australians, it should now be a race to get the hell out of the banks. The banks should see a massive withdraw.
    Take you money and buy tangible assets even gold, but you just cannot store it in a bank.
    Movable assets will be the key and buying equities in the USA may be the only real game in town to protect money.”

    As I mentioned in my last podcast a few days ago, I personally believe that when paper cash slowly dies in large/developed countries, then the MOST attractive alternatives will be publicly listed equities and PMs(+ gems) and my personal preference go to the PMs for the LOWER risk involved in holding them – vs. public equities, which are in the financial system – and also due to the fact that PMs currently offer better value than most conventional markets.

    Closing the paper cash window is necessary for gvts to be able to tax households anytime, anywhere they want. The thing is that WHEN this is performed, or when, for ex. savings start to be taxed such as what is planned in Australia (I understand it’s a different matter, but it’s connected, it’s not isolated), then the RISK PERCEPTION in the public/among people will start to shift at some point. And what appeared for years and years like pretty riskless/riskfree previously will soon start to be perceived as carrying tremendous amount of embedded risk. This is what will provide a shift back to the PMs at some point, IMHO.

    There was a part of my last interview a few days ago that was not in the podcast as the length of interviews have a “technological” limitation.
    But I mentioned to Al/Cory, off mic, to consider the following thing.
    Everyone of us breathe. We breathe everyday, without thinking about it. We think it’s safe to breathe.
    NOW, if, at some point in time, we suddenly think that it MIGHT NOT be safe anymore to breathe… that breathing as we have always done before might actually be potentially harmful… at that point, we WILL start to look for safe ways to breathe – changing location for those who can affort, or for those who can’t afford, trying to find a “device”/tool that helps us breathe without risk.
    And I have to add (and that’s something that I didn’t mention to Al/Cory) that EVEN IF we have to pay a dear price for this “device”/tool, most of us will pay the price as opposed to be left at the risk of a sudden death because we didn’t take precautions.
    So EVEN IF PMs become increasingly tracked/monitored and taxed (which I expect), I still believe that the fact they can be held in one’s hand, and that they have no counterparty risk will make them an investment avenue of choice for not only risk diversification purpose, but RISK REDUCTION purpose within someone’s portfolio. Again, it’s an even better investment proposal given the fact that they represent, IMHO, a good value currently, assuming one takes a multiyear timeframe.

    All enjoy the end of the WE and GL investing/trading next week.

    LPG

      May 03, 2015 03:14 AM

      Great comments, of which some I agree with.

      May 03, 2015 03:00 AM

      Good one LPG. Here in BC the gov taxes everything already. I don’t see anyone using cash at costco or anywhere else.
      Thier taxing the air we breath. It’s called carbon tax. Lol

    May 03, 2015 03:13 AM

    I believe that they will issue credit debit cards to all citizens, they have tried everything else and given time this too will fail. The debt problem can’t be solved even if you control everyone’s finances, the system has to be allowed to cleanse itself and the people who are responsible for this mess need to be held accountable. At some point in the future sound money will be reinstated and that means a gold backed currency.

      May 03, 2015 03:16 AM

      DT. I use to think that then woke up. Gold will not back currency’s. There to many limitations. Bill Stills has some good thoughts on this.

        May 03, 2015 03:59 AM

        I think you’re wrong on that Bill, western societies will be trumped on this next move which will come from Asia. We seem to still think that gold only has a place in showcase windows, I respect your opinion I just don’t agree. DT

    May 03, 2015 03:34 AM

    In the next Months and Years the USA and EUROPE will be OVERWHELMED BY FOREIGNERS ! ALL PLAND TO MAKE US POORER ! And losse all morals and bankrupt ! Total control !

      May 03, 2015 03:02 AM

      That’s happening now Franky. Their buying everything in this town. Our gangster major is a full supporter.

    May 03, 2015 03:40 AM

    I look forward to 25% emergency tax on personal reserves for immigration or disaster relief or California you name it.

    May 03, 2015 03:57 AM

    Birdman you were looking for some oil plays? Joes pretty good. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/three-top-picks-from-oil-and-gas-analyst-josef-schachter/article23813209/?service=mobile

    Frank from Moscow. Germany did not have a senior currency never mind global reserve as the US does. There will be no melt down of the dollar. Once it’s settles around the moving averages and stableizes it could move up against again. No crash and some nut bars have suggested back in Dec.

      May 03, 2015 03:19 AM

      PS Birdman
      Good comments on the dollar but I posted my favorite manager 5 months ago stating that despite the threat of higher interest rates they will stay down and the US will surprise to the upside. His 150million fund is up 40% in 2.5 years. Who does that eh???! To bad is a closed end and trading at a premium to the NAV. You can Barkley buy any. He’s mostly invested In the USA

      May 03, 2015 03:00 AM

      Bill; this analyst pretty much sums up the thoughts I’ve had for oil. We may be recovering in price lately but I believe we fall lower. I continue to talk about a company that’s had a nice run and that is the oil tanker company, nordic american tanker. Since mentioned, it’s had a move up of about 30%. They’re currently paying out a dividend of $.38 which computes to a yield just over 13%. The ex-dividend date is May 5. After that I believe the stock will fall back and could go as low as 11. The oil supply excess is about 1 million barrels + per day and this will continue for awhile. It may seem counterintuitive to purchase an oil tanker business when oil supply is huge versus demand but there are solid reasons for why pricing is moving up. This isn’t investment advice.

      May 03, 2015 03:16 PM

      Bill , and what makes the dollar a reserve currency?
      When did it become a reserve currency?
      Why would it stay a reserve currency?

    May 03, 2015 03:59 AM

    3.2% of Indonesians hold a credit card.
    1.7% of Indians hold a credit card.
    Can’t find the Chinese figures.
    Good luck with that cashless society scheme the muppets trumpet.

      May 03, 2015 03:33 AM

      You don’t get it Matt. Poorer countries are already porting over to mobile money. They don’t need credit cards. They don’t need debit cards either nor collateral or, bank accounts for that matter.

      All that’s required is a mobile phone and the ability to put money onto an account there. After that they shop, transfer funds, pay rent and buy groceries. The roll out is bringing in millions of new subscribers who would not otherwise have a means to interact with modern systems of trade and money transfer on their own.

      And they save money in the process.

      This kind of transaction processing operates entirely off mobile telephones and their services which already have deep penetration in most developing nations markets. Africa is another great example of how mobile phone technology is almost literally in the hands of everyone now.

      So what about Indonesia? Can they get connected?

      Well here is a excerpt from an article that came out in March 2014. E-services and Txn processing are taking the place by storm. This is entirely unstoppable Matt. I give it ten years tops before most of the world is cashless or near to it and if you are curious, I think the poorer nations are actually in the lead right now.

      ——————————-
      “Mobile payments are an increasingly feasible way for e-commerce to grow in Indonesia. MNOs are seeing the importance of e-commerce to complement and grow their existing portfolios. E-commerce in Indonesia was worth up to $1.2 billion in 2012 and industry estimates suggest it was expected to triple or even quadruple in 2013 and projected to hit $10 billion by 2016. In 2010, Forrester Research said Indonesia’s e-commerce market had the potential globally to reach $172.9 billion.

      One popular e-commerce solution that is going mobile is the e-wallet. MNOs see the “bottom of the pyramid” as a large and untapped consumer market and e-wallets as the platform for e-commerce.

      Indonesia’s vast archipelago is seen as ideal for the development of the mobile money market, with much of its rural population having limited physical access to banks and other financial institutions.

      Telkomsel launched a mobile money service called TCash in 2007, which reached over 8 million users in 2013. Indosat followed suit with Dompektu in 2008 and XL launched XL Tunai in 2012. Today all the MNOs have at least one e-wallet initiative and consumers expect the service.

      Some estimates project the number of mobile money users will reach 52 million by 2017 (Indonesia’s current population is 240 million). These users are projected to conduct transaction volumes of $42 billion and generate service revenues of almost $2 billion”.

      ——————–

      And THAT’S how its being done Matt. You do not need to hold credit or debit cards to be a part of the electronic money platforms. And the beauty of these systems is they are operable even when the power goes off; a frequent occurrence in Africa.

      The reason is that the cell network is all backed up with generators. So the appeal of mobile telephony is that it allows commerce to continue day and night…with or without power…and anywhere across most countries which are well served by cellular towers these days.

      Indonesia’s Booming Mobile Money Market — and E-Commerce
      http://www.amcham.or.id/nf/features/4510-indonesia-s-booming-mobile-money-market

        May 03, 2015 03:44 AM

        Good point Bird nearly everyone has a mobile!

          May 03, 2015 03:13 AM

          You got it Bill. It’s maybe the single biggest growth area here in Africa now. I can go out to little tiny villages in the most remote areas where people are still grinding grains with stones and they all have cell phones. The biggest problem is getting a charge in the country but small inexpensive solar panels with mobile phone jacks have become pretty popular lately. They are a mini-solar panel 3 or 4 inches across and 6 inches long and they do the job very nicely.

    May 03, 2015 03:15 AM

    North America is there. Most developing countries are not. When you have plenty of poverty in the countries you mentioned yes right how are they going to hold credit cards!? China’s is more advanced that India or say the Philippines and I’ve been there. The level of poverty will dictate that.

      May 03, 2015 03:00 AM

      Don’t underestimate the growth of these kinds of services Bill. They are truly explosive right now and the poorer nations are in some cases advanced over the West in implementation and usage.

      Let me give you the best example we have right now.

      Seven years ago a form of electronic transaction processing via mobile phones was rolled out in Kenya. It is called M-Pesa and its primary use is money transfers between parties and daily shopping.

      In that short time frame Safaricom, the company that brought out the service, has signed up more than 12 million new accounts and as of late 2014 fully 43% of Kenya’s GDP was being processed on that platform. Government, city buses and taxis are already refusing cash so that has encouraged a wide expansion of the customer base.

      In the last few months a similar system called M-Birr has been rolled out in neighboring Ethiopia where the vast majority of citizens, like Kenyans, do not have bank accounts or any means to access the formal electronic network. It is expected to be a similar success.

      My point here is that poverty is not a barrier to the success of cashless economies. It may actually be one of the factors that speeds along the wider acceptance and implementation of these new networks.

    May 03, 2015 03:11 AM

    Good points Bird. I am a technologist working on these networks but normally don’t think about what’s going on over there. The fact is cell communications is the key to tuning an economy that’s bad into a much more efficient and profitable one. It gives a huge advantages for business owners that want to sell goods and services. Highly efficient. I guess cash is dead there too.

      May 03, 2015 03:19 AM

      Well Bill, the funny thing is that cash is still widely used even though more than half of Kenyans are now on the M-Pesa system. There are moves afoot at the government level to end all cash transactions for water payments, electric, municipal services and other assorted government payments. And that means it won’t be long before Safaricom has achieved 100% penetration of the adult market. They have already outlawed payments in cash on city buses and taxi’s in Nairobi due to the problems with armed robberies and driver corruption. This is one story worth watching because it has become the model for the implementation planned in Eastern Europe, Pakistan and India.

      The world is changing fast man!

    May 03, 2015 03:13 AM

    Any of those companies public??
    Do you know which equipment is being deployed?
    Huawei is king here. Yup all Chinese. Nortel died. I’ve worked in it all.

      May 03, 2015 03:21 AM

      Of course….Vodaphone is the software developer and owner of the most popular system that is spreading in Africa. Competitors are coming in though. Over in the US and Europe its Apple and Samsung who are in the lead with their own mobile wallets and E-Commerce systems.

        May 03, 2015 03:35 AM

        I was talking about the cell equipment site. GSM Ericsson maybe?
        Once major penetration is reached, cash would fade..

        May 03, 2015 03:28 PM

        I just came back from China. The quality of high tech services are higher than North America. The e-commerce is very popular. Cellphone covers any corner including elevators. You can pay anything on line. However, people still like cash since they try whatever way they can to avoid tax. When I buy something on the street, I don’t think the merchants give me any receipts. I will get receipts if I by in the malls. As long as people do not want to be controlled by government, cash will be used. There seems to be no desire on government side to control cash either. Either they believe it is not possible to implement or they need cash too.

      May 03, 2015 03:22 AM

      Too bad about Nortel. I loved that company.

        May 03, 2015 03:29 AM

        Ya me too. I installed the first CDMA site on earth in Burnaby. They got lazy and failed to innovate.

    May 03, 2015 03:26 AM

    Yup Safaricom is on fire. With LTE you have got access to the world.

    bb
    May 03, 2015 03:56 AM

    Great discussion guys.
    I see no reason why Armstrong or Grant etc would not read this blog.
    Other than time restrictions of course.

    May 03, 2015 03:00 PM

    Interesting correlation between gold and the miners:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/beoxjeooko27tsh/CORRELATION%20GLD-GDX.jpg?dl=0

    One way to dig out the local bottom for gold is when gold price is down for the day but gold miners are up.
    The same can be said for gold tops: when gold had an up day but gold miners are down, gold price is topped or about to top.

    May 03, 2015 03:01 PM

    GOLD HOLDINGS BY CHINA….will not be answers in May……………zerohedge.

    May 03, 2015 03:50 PM

    It is unlikely that the Chinese think that a handful of White People are exceptional in anything except their diminutive numbers. The populations of Asia, Africa, and South America dwarf those that comprise Washington’s Empire.

    Neither do the Russians believe that the US is exceptional. Putin’s response to Obama’s claim of American superiority was: “God created us equal.” Putin added: “It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation.”
    PC Roberts

    Oh,I get it. In Indonesia the vast majority of people make $3-$10 a day.
    Most folks shop and sell in traditional markets.Cash majority.
    Vast cash majority reality. Accept the fact the European scum don’t rule all of mankind for a moment.
    American and European trash may own the world’s central banks but not the people,and most especially their souls. The vast majority of the world is poor and .they could care less about what is dreamed up by big dicks that want to keep scumming their power the world over.

      May 03, 2015 03:57 PM

      Matt, I hope I’m not around for the day when the robots pat the humans on the top of their head and say, “ATTA BOY”! DT

    May 03, 2015 03:31 PM

    I can’t believe that many of the posters on this site still think that if a country needs currency all they have to do is print or keystroke it, mankind is not that smart if they can be fooled that easily.

      May 03, 2015 03:48 PM

      DT, there is plenty of evidence to support the claim that “average” intelligence is not good enough. Just look at the the people who can’t wait to kneel before the author of this Orwellian remark:
      “We must be EXTREMELY careful here for to advocate the end of central banking is to advocate communism.” —Martin Armstrong

      Ya got that? If you’re against the fifth plank of the communist manifesto, you’re FOR communism. Lol, there’s a lot of fools out there.

    May 03, 2015 03:32 PM

    Question for proponents of cashless society.

    What happens to commerce when (not if) we experience a CME?

    I heard one extreme doomer say we could expect power outages for up to 20 years. Forget 20 years; most of us would have trouble being without power for 20 days. If temps are between 50 and 80F – okay not too serious. But below freezing and not prepared or set up for it – big trouble. A major CME could affect half the earth’s population at the same time.

    “Coronal mass ejections, along with solar flares of other origin, can disrupt radio transmissions and cause damage to satellites and electrical transmission line facilities, resulting in potentially massive and long-lasting power outages.”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection#Impact_on_Earth

      May 03, 2015 03:05 PM

      Exactly Irwin, what happens if an Electro magnetic pulse bomb or EMP is detonated above the continental United States, there goes your cashless society and all it stands for.

        May 03, 2015 03:48 PM

        I recommend the TV Series from a few years ago “JERICO”. It only had 2 seasons but that is exactly what it was about.

      May 04, 2015 04:27 AM

      Chickens Irwin! On that bad day you will be trading chickens for grain. Cigarettes for booze, shoe repair for haircuts…..nobody will be trading gold except those running the new empire. Ordinary people will just revert to ordinary barter.

        May 04, 2015 04:19 AM

        1849 California………”a pinch of gold, for a shot of whiskey”

        BDC
        May 04, 2015 04:34 AM

        The physical content of pennies and nickels
        make them a useful medium in barter trade.

        May 04, 2015 04:18 AM

        Canada $2 coin (toonie)

        Composition
        1996–2011
        outer ring
        99% Ni
        inner core
        aluminum bronze
        (92% Cu, 6% Al, 2% Ni)

        2012–
        outer ring
        steel,
        nickel plating
        inner core
        aluminum bronze,
        brass plating
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toonie

        There’s been talk of a $5 coin for a few years now.
        Not the $5 silver coin currently selling for C$150, but a mass-usage coin made of steel, aluminum bronze, etc.
        A trunk load of those coins would come in handy.