Where is Rick optimistic for investing right now?
Rick joins us to chat about his thoughts on the markets, oil and gold. We also talk about if or when there will be a major correction in the markets due to weak economic data. Finally where is Rick optimistic on investing? The answer might not be so black and white…
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Although long JNUG and NUGT since end of March GDXJ continues to make lower lows taking out Dec 2013 lows and THE bottom all the goldbugs called Nov 2014 again in March of this year, how anyone see’s a bullish trend from this prices is beyond me
There is a big difference, in my opinion, between the last four years and what is going on now. Sure gold could continue to plummet, but I really believe that people are smarter than that in these times.
Maybe my common sense, original, is way off base. Who know, I just don’t think so. Give me a few short months.
Already took my profits on NUGT. Trying to tripple down on JDST if my order ever fills.
IN addition to 6 miners, I own JNUG (no and off) as a trading tool.
Recently GDX/JNUG have SIGNIFICANTLY decoupled from the individual stocks I won.
ecently
… hit the “Submit ” button on mistake.
my point: Currently, there does not seem to be a tight correlation between gold, GDXJ (JNUG), and the small group of profitable miners,
No kidding a $27 move off $1168 these past 3 days for gold yet the Hui index is up 2 pips from the $1168 lows same with GDX if miners lead their general index are not feeling bullish as many recent poppers are rolling over today with gold up
I would agree. Claude Resources is a good example.
I would absolutely agree Brian. That is why I keep on bring up the question, what does this mean going forward. Are the stocks telling us something or are the metals a predictor of the future?
Great point Brian. Spot Gold versus GDXJ (and related 3 x ETFS) and then the quality small and mid tier producers are all dancing to the beat of their own drums, without much correlation.
I think we’re seeing the biggest bang in the small/mid-tier producers because of the lower energy costs, the lower expenses due to the devalued Canadian, Australian, and Mexican currencies, and there is some money flows coming back into select mining shares = Stock pickers market versus the “all boats rise with the tide” syndrome that we saw in years past.
For clarification: I think there are a number of high quality stocks in GDX and GDXJ, but those indexes are missing many of the companies poised for the biggest growth, or have such a small percentage representation in these companies that there is a true divergence in the index average versus the exceptional miner. The strength of the EFT Model is spreading risk over dozens of equities, so there is more safety and security in a basket of stocks. I trade GDXJ through (JNUG) and (JDST) to follow the macro trends, but am acquiring positions in the cream of the crop for the long term.
Here is the list of holdings in GDXJ :
GDXJ โ STOCK HOLDINGS
Stock Weight Amount
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd 7.10% $116,513,084
Hecla Mining Co. 4.49% $73,760,944
Northern Star Resources Ltd 4.27% $73,599,970
Iamgold 4.13% $67,865,505
Semafo 4.10% $67,361,175
Centamin Egypt Ltd 3.83% $66,027,303
Novagold Resources 3.56% $58,493,607
Torex Gold Resources 3.53% $58,039,290
Aurico Gold 3.51% $57,664,506
Harmony Gold Mining Co Ltd 3.28% $53,893,057
Oceanagold 3.17% $51,991,682
Centerra Gold 3.02% $49,558,756
Alamos Gold 2.98% $48,899,706
First Majestic Silver 2.77% $45,445,632
Lake Shore Gold 2.72% $44,713,274
Coeur D’alene Mines 2.61% $42,923,103
Romarco Minerals 2.61% $42,914,884
Pretium Resources 2.44% $40,070,462
Alacer Gold 2.39% $39,183,102
Primero Mining 2.27% $37,221,777
Silver Standard Resources 2.24% $36,792,813
China Gold Inttl Resources Corp Ltd 2.23% $36,625,776
Koza Altin Isletmeleri As 1.93% $33,323,011
Premier Gold Mines Ltd 1.76% $28,822,848
Fortuna Silver Mines 1.75% $28,798,510
Sandstorm Gold Ltd 1.74% $28,614,681
Regis Resources Ltd 1.67% $28,699,806
Mag Silver 1.64% $26,971,862
Evolution Mining Ltd 1.59% $27,384,770
Kirkland Lake Gold 1.58% $25,975,758
Rubicon Minerals 1.58% $26,002,324
Asanko Gold 1.49% $24,545,494
Guyana Goldfields 1.30% $21,410,453
Dundee Precious Metals 1.27% $20,876,843
Endeavour Mining 1.23% $20,151,208
China Precious Metal Resources Holdings 1.20% $20,699,418
Argonaut Gold Ltd 1.19% $19,606,981
Saracen Mineral Holdings Ltd 1.11% $19,120,724
Silvercorp Metals 1.09% $17,819,491
Endeavour Silver 1.05% $17,267,923
Teranga Gold 1.05% $17,308,385
China Silver Group Ltd 1.02% $17,586,025
Seabridge Gold 1.01% $16,604,073
Continental Gold Ltd 0.99% $16,328,892
Mcewen Mining 0.97% $15,882,339
Perseus Mining Ltd 0.93% $15,190,096
Gold Resource 0.67% $11,027,427
Medusa Mining Ltd 0.67% $11,604,935
Beadell Resources Ltd 0.61% $10,432,737
Kingsgate Consolidated Ltd 0.56% $9,695,227
Timmins Gold 0.53% $8,727,014
Resolute Mining Ltd 0.50% $8,561,684
Great Panther Silver Ltd 0.38% $6,244,485
Silver Lake Resources Ltd 0.35% $5,974,227
OTHER/CASH 0.35% $6,087,466
Highland Gold Mining Ltd 0.33% $5,672,318
Troy Resources Ltd 0.32% $5,472,728
Gabriel Resources Ltd 0.31% $5,084,281
Drdgold Ltd 0.31% $5,085,671
Midway Gold 0.25% $4,071,491
Bear Creek Mining 0.24% $3,977,551
Real Gold Mining Ltd 0.22% $3,730,802
Patagonia Gold Plc 0.11% $1,854,372
Sulliden Mining Capital 0.05% $884,814
So, there are some good names on that list that I own, and have on my wishlist for sure. However many of the companies we’ve been discussing as small producers (Claude, Klondex, Scorpio) or explorers that are prime takeover targets featured on the Korelin Economics report like (Exeter, Rye Patch, Santa Cruz Silver, Idaho North, or Alexandria minerals); are not even featured in their index.
I can see the value in owning the quality stocks you believe will outperform the index, but for many having a holding in GDX or GDXJ gives them the exposure they want to gold miners without having to think……and I get that.
Thanks for the summary Shad.
WOW. I had just looked at this list again, so thanks for taking the effort to post it.
Even if you have cherry-picked some miners, it is NOT a bad idea to have a mall portion in GDXJ (or JNUG). Nothing is more depressing than to watch GDXJ in an upward trend, as your own “genius” picks stay flat or down little (Admittedly, the opposite has been happening, though)
Great point Brian. When I reviewed this list today, I decided to post it for 3 reasons:
1) most people never take the time to look at the holdings with the ETFs they trade, and we discuss GDXJ all the time on this blog so I thought it may be of interest
2) There are some great companies on this list people may want to do some homework on and take positions in their stocks individually
3) a reminder to myself and others that this (GDXJ) ETF is rather stocked on exposure to the Jr and even some mid-tier miners and is a great basket. In addition to your individual stock picks, this is an easy way to get exposure to the sector for the macro trend.
Good luck in your investing!
GDXJ is a senior index compared to much of what I own. SGDJ is probably better but it lacks volume -which probably isn’t a problem for many. At just over a month old, it is outperforming gdxj so far.
http://www.sprottetfs.com/holdings/sgdj
Speaking of gdxj, it has found some Schiff fork resistance lately:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p57995922467&a=406951885
Now I get to say WOW!! Thanks so much for posting that link WMK.
I was completely unaware of the Sprott ETF (SGDJ) but after looking at their list of companies it is like a fusion of both GDX and GDXJ but with far better weightings on some of the companies I really like in the mining space, and less overall stocks to muddy the waters.
As for your second post with the Schiff fork, what are your thoughts Matthew? It does look like GDXJ is hitting resistance on the top trend-line, so do you think it (A) reverses back down after hitting it’s head, or is it possible that (B) PMs may get a pop out of the bad jobs number that it could break above the trend line in a counter-trend move?
I really thought May would be a rough patch for the PMs but so far things have been going OK with weaker dollar, weaker US data, and global nuttiness. What is your outlook for the end of the week as all eyes seem to be on the jobs report?
The picture still remains more positive than negative, short term, but I still sold a lot of calls this morning (luckily, because they then plunged more than 50% by the end of the day).
SGDJ is very different than GDXJ in other important ways; read all about it:
http://www.sprottetfs.com/documents/pdfs/sprottjunioretfs-fs-20150331-1.pdf
Btw, I don’t think the miners will correct meaningfully until sometime in June.
Good thoughts WMK. Thanks for the reply back.
I’m very interested in SGDJ now, and have been very impressed with SGDM as well.
Take a look then at Santacruz Silver, Shad.
I absolutely have Big Al and I think there is a lot of potential with Santa Cruz Silver.
Keep on finding the unique companies and opportunities and we appreciate you sir!
BTW – Here is a link to the Santa Cruz Silver Corporate Presentation. Worth a review!
I think what the action is foretelling is that gold shares get thrown out with the bathwater should a significant correction in the markets occur.
I am worried as well that the precious metals shares will take a hit if/when the markets sell off. If a major sell-off comes I think very little is safe. That being said the precious metals stocks do have a good chance of bouncing back faster than most other assets.
Most likely shorting gold Thurs. for a big plunge.
Unfortunately gold is looking pathetic for a few
months. Will know more in a few weeks.
Take heed !!!
Not always right. …but never wrong.
That last line is great, Heavy! Kind of the way I guess I should feel some of the time.
Well, try and stay fit/healthy Big AL. It’s always been one of my better
choices in life.
I am definitely trying right now Heavy.
Just seem to need to rest a bit right now!
I agree about the rest. Highly important. It’s a gradual
process after the health issues. Patience required and
moderation. Can do more damage than good biting off
too much.
GDX. Pfft. Give me a leveraged gold ETF any day thank me very much.
Hi Jason, are you talking about something like NUGT? The play might be buying when gold hits it’s range bottom and selling about a week later…
Cory
I have been trading the uptrends with JNUG and dropped NUGT (not trying to trade downtrends right now). Trading the 1180-2000 range works … until it doesn’t. Take, for example today: Gold UP + 0.4% and JNUG DOWN – 5.4%.
Good point. The stocks are not showing any strength with the move up in gold this week.
Yes Brian and Cory, I found that interesting, and shows the continued lack of correlation between the spot price and the miners – 2 different stories are unfolding.
Have you ever been in my situation, Heavy?
Rest is something that is hard for me to do. But, I am now getting some real pressure from the “little blond lady”!
Health wise Big AL, maybe a big surprise. .yes. I do not want to elaborate
on it or the specifics however all related to cardiovascular. Now I’m stronger
than ever but it was several years before I fully recovered.
So fully understand your health issues but like some of our other fellow patients
they too are much better off than before.
I still need to act with good discretion though. Even so, you need to regardless.
As far as your good wife goes those are questions I could never find answers for.
Ya gotta roll …with dem punches… man !!!!! Some things never change Big AL ๐
.
May 05 Wealth Building 101: Gold Stock Ratios Stewart Thomson 321gold
For big Al
Last sentence:
“… all serious gold stock investors should have more confidence in their holdings now, than at any point in the history of gold stocks!”
I would have to agree Brian. And I feel very strongly about that right now.
I’ll have the most confidence in the stocks once we know the lows are in for the commodity sector and PMs. Until we get a gold price above 1347 and in particular 1382, then nobody can claim 100% that the lows are in. Nobody can claim November was the actual “major bottom” until this happens, and in my opinion, there is still a high likelihood that the 1130 level may still be tested later this year.
While I am in complete agreement that mining stocks have diverged from the spot prices at around the 1180-1200 level Gold, that does NOT mean that they will continue to ignore spot price if it drops down to $1000 (+/- 10%). $900 Gold, for example, would crush many miners revenues to the point where stocks would take it in the shorts.
So until we know the spot lows are in for the end of the 4 year Bear market, then I think it is a little much to proclaim “investors should have more confidence in their holdings now, than at any point in the history of gold stocks!โ
I happen to agree with Stewart, but if avoiding any chance of downside is more important than missing a lot of upside, then waiting for a setup that suits you makes sense.
The miners priced in sound money have spoken and they should be bought on weakness, in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPTGD%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=3&dy=0&id=p19507758886&a=374058646
Gold has been weakening vs the miners since October.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p57714898477&a=361374318
You know I respect your opinion big time WMK, and I agree with you the miners have been showing real strength and bullish indicators all year, but really in March and April decoupled more from the spot prices and quality companies moved up.
However, I think it would be difficult for the investor marketplace to shrug off a move to $1044.70 or $993.20 Gold, if that happens later this year.
I just think it’s a bit early to proclaim:
โโฆ all serious gold stock investors should have more confidence in their holdings now, than at any point in the history of gold stocks!โ – Stewart Thomson
The history of gold stocks is a long time range, and there is enough of a debate about whether gold may test the November lows, that saying now is the time to be most confident is a bit surprising.
Let me be clear though, that I really like Stewart, think he is incredibly tuned-in and intelligent. I like the the general energy and confidence about the strength of mining shares, but just thought that statement was a bit too strong based on the facts we have currently. I loved his interview on the weekend show BTW Al & Cory, and would love to hear him on the show more often. He’s worth listening to or reading for a healthy perspective.
Also, for clarity, as mentioned last week and today on the other blog, I am about 1/3 in on my Gold miners, Silver miners, PGM miners, streaming companies, and ETF exposure; and then 2/3 in other asset classes and sectors in my Trading account.
My retirement account is boring and heavily weighted towards boring mutual funds in different allocations, with a 10% weighting in PMs as recommended.
GOOD REPORT……….I LIKE IT………..
Thanks Frankjer.
Good one Big Al! “Frankjer”
FRANKJERSTINE……. ๐
Even better! FrankJerstein…..OOTB….The BOOT…..from moscow
or could just be Prankjer…………. the boot
Lately there has been a lot of information about how bad sitting for too long and too often is bad for your health, walk as much as you can, Americans spend too much time sitting in their cars.
DT – this may be the most helpful advice of the day, as I would wager that 100% of the people reading this probably sit too much.
I got up and exercised for a few minutes right after ready because….guilty as charged ๐
UUP does not look good to me:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p69331464665&a=361825427
Three minutes of entertainment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SILKoyX_Sok
Here’s the same guy from the last video. He seems like the type that would enjoy playing the junior miners ๐
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFLwxGB1qFI
That was bat crap crazy!
DITTO…………. CRAZY………..
Interesting Rick, I would have thought your opinion would have been the gold market pops these past few years has been short covering during golds clear bear market trend these past few years and the opposite looking at the us equities, no short covering as who would be short a clear bull market running now for many years?