Doc is seeing some real weakness in the markets
Doc is on the same page as Al with his call on the continued weakness in the conventional markets.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
LPG; the dow is starting to show the same picture—-I’ve been watching that closely and if at the end of the month the 12 month MACD MA shows the same relationship to the 26 month MA that we see today or even a further widening, the odds are we are finally moving into the next bear market.
Noted Richard.
But you know have me wonder if you are then gonna change your moniker to “Dr. Richard “Doom” Postma” ?
🙂 🙂 🙂
Best as always,
LPG
Ha Ha! Good one LPG. But I have to say Doc has been pretty good with some of his calls and personally I love a guy who can call a market in both directions, both up or down. Seems to be a skill that’s in short supply almost everywhere you look so I figure it takes a specially talented guy to do that.
Funny LPG.
Interesting comment from Richard re: giving money to people.
A few years ago, J. Yellen apparently mentioned in a private conversation to Erik Townsend that she was in favor of these types of measures if push come to shove.
Best to all,
LPG
Interesting thoughts on giving money directly to US citizens.
Another option would be to lower SSI tax and just print money for the SSI fund
The SSI tax, for combined person and company, is 12.4%. Cut that in half and the average person would see a ~6% increase in their paycheck.
I believe tht it is a bit higher than 12.4%. (At least it used to be.)
Cutting ssi payments would truly be the beginning of the end! Do you agree?
Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is a Federal income supplement program funded by general tax revenues (not Social Security taxes), so would that be a Federal Tax cut then for the average household Brian?
Along those same lines, Social Security is a broken system, and needs an overhaul (and has for the last 20 years), but no politician wants to touch it because that is so unpopular.
The government has given out “Stimulus Checks” in the past to muted effect, but at this point, if they are going to keep printing like lunatics and running up incomprehensible debt limits that are totally unpayable, then I say “Send us the checks”.
Ron Paul made that point when he was tearing into the TARP and QE 1 programs and said for that money every citizen could have had a check for $50,000 or something like that, and this would have done much more to stimulate the economy, over giving it all to the bankers.
Now giving everyone a check for $50,000 sounds crazy, and what government would consider that, right? However, when that same government announced Hundreds of Billions and eventually Trillions of dollars to be created to put out financial fires, people go ……”Gosh, that sounds like a lot…..but OK”.
You might have a point there Al, Rick for example seems to be changing his outlook, $800 was his target and he has now changed to $1120 HAS to get broken, (well duh) but I guess 1120 might have support.
There is definitely things going on in the gold markets, Venesuala “pawning” gold held in London that was sent to Venesuala months ago.
Indian temples have been talked into selling their vaulted gold by their government,
there was another south American country giving up their gold for U.S. dollars Uraguay?
My point of course is that it looks like demand will be satisfied with available product for some time yet.
But, ya never know what the banks have in store for us, JP Morgan has amassed a hoard they might intend to make some cash on, which would indicate a rise in prices.
I really think that I do bb
the gold market is a different animal than in 2008 9.Did you have Chindian demand then?
Different world now..
Agreed Agatha!
Demand from India has been there from the dawn of time, China has increased demand starting with their increase in wealth and decision to bring the yuan into a more prevalent role.
Demand from India – Demand as strong as it is today?
Of course as strong as today Al, they have always bought from a portion in profits.
Its relative, maybe they only bought 100 tons a year at one point, but their % of purchase will be directly correlated to their % purchase of the amount mined today.
I didn’t say that well but you get my point Im sure.
Heck, just look at the amounts in those temples, its entirely possible they bought greater % amounts a thousand years ago.
I just don’t believe Indian demand is anything new I guess.
Its a good thing I think bb. The CB of India is on the right track trying to turn that gold into something useful for India. Until now that country has basically been a Black Hole for precious metals and especially gold. What goes in simply never comes out again so its wealth latency effect is nullified where it no longer trades. Basically, the Modi Government wants to get the metals velocity rising and stem the inflows into the country. They will all end up wealthier if the idea is a success.
Al, is spot on……..concerning the mining sector at this time. Cory is correct, the weak sisters will be going bye,bye. Cory is optimistic because he has never seen a bear market in stocks like 87. Doc is spot on. jmho………….THE BOOT
We will see “the boot”
Don’t forget what happened to the whole crew of “Das Boot.” In the long run, when gold goes to 5 or 10K, it won’t matter whether you buy gold now at 1192 or wait for 1000, and 1000 may never come.
-2.5% of the highs and everyone hates the market. Just goes to show this market is built on nothing.
Re govt giving money to people, or tax credits, that is not a decision for the Fed so how is that going to pass congress? A congress that has delivered nothing on the fiscal side.
Simon, just with this small move down in the bond market, mortgage applications have dropped—and the Fed is talking increasing rates. If the conventional markets go, the Fed/government will have to respond. We’ve seen that purchasing bonds and MBSs have done nothing for growth and the middle class is struggling. The only option the Fed/government would have is to put more money directly into the struggling consumer’s pocket. It would take an act of government to accomplish it and the most likely method would be to drop taxes on FICA up to a certain income level. In order to accomplish that and the corresponding deficit, the Fed would have to buy government bonds thus increasing their balance sheet even more.
Doc spot on! EVERYONE should be watching the bond action that’s the bubble looking for a pin and its ramifications to global markets is massive!
Gotta say I find it funny how every time these past several years when the Dow rolls over how everyone starts suggesting the end of the bull run in US equites, this is it, the big plunge, how many times now? These past years its never buy the dips in US equities yet its always buy the dips in the pm’s markets which have clearly been making lower highs and lower lows while the US equities make higher highs and higher lows, ok yes this time the bond markets are at an extreme but they have been before while the Dow surges higher.
Talk of QE4, mailing out cqs, really, why are you guys always its the end of the world? Doc put up a monthly of the S&P 500 with a trend line off the Oct 2011 low across the low in Nov 2012 at 1343 as it lines up perfectly with the Oct 2014 lows at 1820, heck the S&P hasn’t even closed below that trend line support in place for almost 4 years!
Original, in my view, that’s an awful important trend line. It’s one step at a time for these markets. Often, in new bear markets, they don’t just all out of bed. That’s why they’re tough to call and why so many people lose so much money. They’ll slowly over time take out one technical after another and it’s a slow drip process. After the first correction, the market often moves up again and the investor that buys the “dip” thinks he is in great shape as the market moves up. But then the next high is often lower and you move to the next low with this process being repeate until you get the last dump. It’s like slowly turning the heat up on the frog (investor) until some day the investor looks at his/her portfolio and realizes they’re about 40% down. They then rationalize that the market always comes back and then stay longer for the last % of fall—-kind of what happened to the PM stocks.
That’s right Doc and why one should never ever ever argue with the chart, too many pm’s investors use hope instead of reality, a wealth destroyer! I paid dearly many years ago not to be a deer in the headlights over and over again, so trade it or lose it
I’ve been buying the US equity Etf’s for two years now and have never sold only added when the chart turned up again as its in a bull market (remember those days well when gold was in its bull run) Take out that monthly trend line with a close on the chart we are talking about and I’ll take my profits without exception!!!!
We always learn the hard way—-I took some profits today in Klondex since the charts were shouting at me. I’ll get back in at a lower price in the future. As I’ve said: I’ve got my long holders and some short holders. I went long the VIX end of last week and short the Chinese market. They’re both moving the right way but I’ve learned to take profits since it lowers the cost basis of my long term holders.
Good plan on taking profits to lower the larger cost basis Doc. I do the same thing, and occasionally leave some money on the table, but would rather be conservative and know my position is solid for the longer term. Then I’ll buy some back on the next dip.
For example, I did that today on Stillwater Mining (SWC) when it surged higher. My 3 year position is averaged in at $12.88, and I couldn’t help but sell a little back today at $14.30 (missed $.07 at end of the day though ….darn-it), but this lowered my cost basis down below $12 now on the remaining portion and further de-risked my long term position. On the next pullback I may buy a little more again though.
I am always mindful of what Rick Ackerman said about having to follow the charts even though fundamentally it made no sense.
For clues as to what is really going on here I think you have to look past the FED to the Bank For International Settlements.
I think the Basel Committee is more nervous than a 16 year old on a first date.
The 800 pound elephant is the OTC derivitives and the inability of the BIS to get their arms around who will take the losses in the event of a major decline or crash.
Monetary policy has overtaken fiscal policy. The problem is that no one completely understands how much risk is contained in each financial institution. Furthermore, how to collateralize the risk in a matter that is enforceable in a highly complex international financial system.
I don’t completely agree with Rick about following the charts even though fundamentally it makes no sense.,
Fair enough Big Al.I took your advice in 2007 and never looked back.
That being said I think you are 100% spot on with what is going on here.
1 Sept 2016 Gold will be margin collateral for non centrally cleared derivatives.
At some point Gold could take a hit.I would welcome it as an opportunity to accumulate some more.
DITTO BIG AL………… THE BOOT……..
should say manner instead of matter.
(OT) The recent Theralase trading is disappointing; $US 0.18 is possible.
I am enthusiastic for the long-term.
Just for you Big Al … (Everybody can liste :)):
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-06/mizuhos-ricchiuto-wipes-floor-deutsches-lavorgna-why-do-i-even-bother
Thanks Gabriel,
Reminded me why I don’t watch Fox News any more at all. Just turning into a circus.
Neither one of these guys were allowed to articulate a cogent train of thought. Just like watching a movie.
In these very confusing times, I do not appreciate this kind of “entertainment”.
Thanks for the link, by the way, Gabriel!
Usually I listen CNBC with no sound …
Boy I sure agree with you guys. What the heck is with all the shouting on the business shows anyway? Like a big fat ego trip. They all behave like a bunch of jungle banshees and nobody lets anybody else get a word in edgewise. Guests get shouted down and cut off….. Meanwhile the background screens flash junk at you so fast with all the attendant sound effects it just comes across like a loony tunes zoo. I tune out all of it with the “off” button. News on the net suits me just fine.
After watching CNBC for just a few minutes (and I do very rarely), I remember instantly why I turned it off starting in 2008. Like so many people, this was a major awakening period where it was blatantly clear the emperor was wearing no clothes.
Now just 5 minutes of main stream financial media pundits makes me want to hurl and I feel frustrated simply watching a brief interview. What a world we live in….
but thanks for posting it Gabriel…….it was a good reminder of how much more I like this site versus CNBC. Thanks Al & Cory for all you do.
I talked, at length, about Theralase earlier today. As Cory said, “it will either be a huge win” or it will slip away.
We are not sellers at this point, Brian. That is not investment advice at all that is just what we are doing.
Agree 100% ~ Brian
More innovations…I wonder what truck,taxi,bus..etc drivers are gonna do in 10 years?
http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/Business/ID/2666546503/
Interesting video. I had not seen that before, thanks.
Doc, whenever you say “sideways to a little down” I take note, generally that has ment gold tanks.
For the profitable companies I follow (profitable at above $7-$800 gold), that can mean up to about a 30% drop.
I still like Garys thinking, better opportunities to buy may come this summer, then the concern will be Sept/Oct.
If there is a stockmarket correction/crash I feel goldshares get thrown out for liquidity.
So, for me, I intend to wait for summer lows and leave cash to buy more should a crash/correction happen later in the year.
BB; I can’t argue with that. I’m pretty much on the sidelines now waiting for better prices on some of these as the summer wears on. I just responded to a personal email sent to me by a gentlemen in Germany. I’ll rehash what I responded to him. The odds are very favorable for the PMs and stocks to sell off with what I believe is a short term conventional market sell off. Based on technicals, the scenario I’m watching is for PMs and some PM stocks to sell off for the next 21/2 weeks. I believe gold will get pretty close to challenging its’ lows. Then we’ll see what happens. I’m not even thinking about purchasing anything until the end of May.
Thx for the reply Doc.
Sure do appreciate all contributions around here.
Another minor adjustment I have made, I have moved to buying physical about every 2 months instead of every month, attempting to save on premiums.
If I waited too long tho some pretty girl would get the cash.
BB; I bought some for the first time in about 5 years at the end of November. I’ll wait and probably buy a little when we challenge the lows again in about 2 weeks. Then I’ll wait until the end of summer since we should put in cycle lows again whether we’re still at previous lows or a little lower.
Vanity Capital Inc. Appoints Alexander Korelin as a Director, Effective May 26, 2014
May 26 14
Big AL what’s this about?
Vanity Capital Inc. announced the appointment of Mr. Alexander Korelin as a director of Vanity effective May 26, 2014. Mr. Korelin is a prominent public figure in the junior resource sector in Canada and the U.S.
lol
He talked about what they were doing with Vaninty Capital in financing the mining sector on the show today, and mapped out why he was a part of their team.
made sense to me.
Doc is a professional nibbler
Yup, my % of ownership is slowly rising—–I’ve said for months that we’re going to be bottoming for months so I’m being very selective. My % of ownership in the PM stocks as to what I expect to own in the future is now about 17%. I keep looking for companies in production whose financials are strong and also looking for companies that are through the development phase and are ramping up production. Potentially toward the end of May and the summer months we should get further opportunities to add a little bit more.
Holy.. cow… best conversation ever!
Birdman India & China are more middle class than ever before..gold is money. They have more money to put into gold.. the jewelers are beginning to buy mines..
The Indian CBanker I understand is very bright. But your other gold stuff is malarkey imo.
Indians wil never turn in their gold for paper..
Based on what Agatha? They are already turning gold over in exchange for interest payments offered by the government. That’s quite a big enticement in a country where poverty is still widespread and sources of income not easy to come by. In effect, the principle value of the gold is protected but now they get a revenue stream. Keep in mind a lot of that gold has been in the possession of temples for generations already. It is not as though the original gifters will be coming back to complain so justification is made easier. Anyway, the Modi’s government plan is merely to capture 10% of the gold hoard and that amount is entirely doable just based on simple probabilities. I suspect they will actually get far more than that should the global economy slow down.
And bb made a great point above. This new program will take a lot of pressure off the demand side globally if jewelry supply can be sourced from within India’s borders. I don’t have any idea how far imports might fall as a result but since India is the first or second largest buyer of gold depending on the months, it stands to reason prices could be affected everywhere as buyers no longer import in current quantities.
There is a large jewelry outfit that intends to buy a mine.(if they havnt already)
This isn’t the first time this has been reported.
Another billionare bought a mine awhile back to build his personal stash.
I don’t see why that hasn’t always happened and just not put out on news blogs.
Not sure what could be read into it, other than that jewellery manufacturer would buy cheaper materials.
Just gives him an edge over competition.
Even if you are correct, which I don’t think you are, it will be an insignificant inventory pulse and wont even make up for the continuing drop in gold recycling that is occurring.
Guess we would have to crunch the numbers Peter. Indian gold demand in 2014 was 842 tonnes. That’s a hell of a pile of gold by any measure and it exceeded even China’s voracious demand. In fact, that number accounts for 30% of global 2014 production. If all that could be sourced internally in India there is little doubt in my mind price would have trouble recovering.
Cathleen Austin Fitts………..at usawatchdog. CHANGE NEEDS TO HAPPEN!….GIVE THE NWO THE BOOT.
The best way to give the NWO the Boot is to interact with everyone on an individual basis, whether that be in person or over the internet and mail. We can decide what is fair value better than central planners, bankers, and too big to fail mega-incorporation. Love your neighbor as a brother, and individually we affect our local environment, that in turn affects the larger regional, national, global marketplace.
The power is always with the people, but only if they take personal responsibility and take an action in alignment with the greater good in mind. Not always practical or realistic, but working towards that kind of connectivity at an individual level is a good place to start.
I had in store a Zerohedge article from last summer re: central banks handing cash to consumers – an idea thrown up in the air by CFR. Here it is:
GL to all investing/trading
LPG
I am skeptical of anything that comes from the lips of someone in the Council on Foreign Relations because they see people as nothing more than pawns on their chess board, and they are the kings and queens. However, for once, I do agree with them that if the government gave the money directly to people, like prior stimulus checks in the past, that it would spur more economic activity than the charade they’ve been pulling with Tarp and the QE programs. Only banks and people with large stock allocations have really benefited.
At least a stimulus check gives something to the people, but that is still just stealing from the future and creating more debt that people will need to repay or default on at one point. Sure it may temporarily get some economic activity going, but at what cost to tax payers. Also, should non-taxpayers get these checks? I think it is redistribution if everyone gets money, but then only the working half pays for it out of taxation. Make it a flat consumption tax and employment tax for everyone and get rid of the Federal Income tax if that is the case.
Silver:Gold Correlation Coefficient CORR(20)
On a weekly chart, the correlation coefficient is siting around +.50, but seems to have a steep, descending slope. Everything is de-coupling, it seems
Just some objective data, for a possible trend over the next couple weeks:
1. Silver remains flat while gold descends
2. Silver starts to rise slowly as gold remains flat
3. Silver leads gold out f the 1180-1200 range
I agree that everything has started to decouple and it is a madhouse in the markets. I like those 3 possible trends and will be watching on Friday and Monday to see which one plays out and play it from there once we have some kind of real trend develop.
Good luck to you Brian and good thoughts!
I am weighted a little more towards the silver miners and pgm miners over the gold miners but have exposure to all of it producers, streamers, explorers, ETFs. It wouldn’t hurt my feeling to have Silver rise a little bit for a few weeks 🙂
With Palladium and Copper up, it seems like some commodities are starting to get a bid, but oddly enough, it’s the base metals. I don’t know anyone that was forecasting higher Copper and Palladium, but hopefully that will trickle over to Silver next.
Shad, call me skeptical. I mentioned months ago that we should see a bottoming of the commodities in the 2nd quarter of this year. Well, we’re here and the CRB is bottoming right where it bottomed in 2009. However, I have this nagging feeling that we may take out that bottom and go lower especially when I look at the copper chart and other commodity charts. Palladium looks okay yet and still appears to be in a long term bull market. That’s probably the case since there seems to be a supply issue with palladium and should be with us for awhile. Also, the palladium stock I follow isn’t exactly marching north.
Good thoughts Doc. Yes, I’ve been in the same camp waiting for commodities to bottom in May-July, but my original thesis included a continued stronger dollar (which I believe we will still see in a few months).
What we have seen so fare in March & April with Copper and Nickel is just curious considering all the talk about China slowing, but you are correct that this still may be a counter-trend move in commodities and we likely have one more leg down to put in the major bottom in the sector, and it will correlate with the US dollar when it turns around and head up.
Most of the Palladium is mined as a byproduct of the Platinum industry in South Africa (which has been a disaster the last few years with riots, unions, shutdowns…etc). Palladium and Platinum have diverged lately which is interesting and due to the auto markets on gasoline versus diesel. The second biggest supply of Palladium comes from Russia as a by-product to their Nickel mining.
The marketplace is very small, and while the Auto Catalytic Converter dominates the supply, Palladium is finding new uses in dental and metal applications. Also, it is still much cheaper than Platinum and is being used as a substitution now in new designs. This trend is only growing as China & Asia add more gasoline cars, and Europe continues to covert more and more from diesel to gas automotives.
The only miners really focuses on palladium in the western hemisphere are Stillwater and North American Palladium. Stillwater also is a huge scrap recycler of Palladium. North Amercian Palladium is in bad shape and doing the death spiral, which is sad because their resource could have been mined a different way with a much lower operating cost, but they just didn’t approach it in the most efficient way.
There are explorations and development projects like Wellgreen Platinum, Platinum Group Metals, Polymet, and Duluth (who was recently bought out and merged with Antofagasta) that have very large Palladium reserves in addition to Platinum, Rhodium, Gold, Silver and some base metals. I think once the marketplace re-rates the resource at Wellgreen that they will be a prime takeover candidate but that is still about 1-2 years out. Platinum Group Metals has a nice Palladium credit and much of the build-out of their new mine on target, and will likely spike suddenly once the marketplace catches up to their success. Lastly, Polymet is my pick of the litter (after Stillwater) and will likely get taken out by a mid-tier or major. I had a position in Duluth Minerals in Minnesota as well and did good when they got taken over. Polymet has a great deposit defined and just needs a JV partner or to be taken out and it will happen in under 12 months.
That’s my 2 cents on Palladium.
Funny but that’s a thought that’s been bothering me too Doc. We really had no way of knowing for sure until we actually got here though. The question now will be…well, how far into deeper territory are we going and for how long?
The outlook for metals will dim in any case. So will the prospects of a rotational shift between asset classes. In short this calls for a rethinking of our most basic set of ideas and their timelines.
So if we use the CRB Index as a guide it looks like we could retrace all the way back to the 180 region before hitting a bottom. That’s if you subscribe to the view that a final bottom will be found at absolute long term support numbers.
Fibbo’s offer up a range of different options though but lets not yet conclude that we might see a full retrace off the commodity bubble highs that actually takes us BELOW old support on an overshoot of the declines.
Right now the CRB sits at 230 after having bounced off the 210 level back in middle March. It seems likely to me that another drop is in store and this is naturally not all the bullish for gold this summer.
So what we are seeing now is probably a dead cat bounce….it is not the final bottom for the CRB Index that will still need most of this year to finish playing out to its natural conclusion.
Reuters / Jefferies $CRB Index 1980 through 2015 – Commodity Index
http://i2.wp.com/shortsideoflong.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/CRB-Index-Performance.png
Now, I have another chart and a different view Doc. Take a look at this one from ScotiaBank in Canada and you may get a confirming view of the current CRB Chart and simultaneously a second opinion.
First though, a note on what this index currently comprises. It is a U.S. dollar-based Index of key Canadian commodity prices so it’s not as comprehensive as the more general indexes. The chart begins in the year 1972……It was recently reweighted as follows:
Crude Oil and Natural Gas 39.9%
Metals and Minerals 30.1%
Forest Products and Wood 14.7%
Agricultural Index 15.3%
————————-
Total = 100
OK..so here is the chart. It is the last one in the PDF so just drop down to the bottom to find the “Scotiabank All Commodity Price Index” and let those numbers sink in for a minute. Does that chart tell you we have arrived at the bottom where commodities are concerned?
I think the median price range in the channel that formed prior to 2004 gives us an idea of where we need to go before we have fully retraced although obviously this is open to debate. Any thoughts?
Scotiabank All Commodity Price Index — 1972 to 2015
http://www.gbm.scotiabank.com/English/bns_econ/bnscomod.pdf
Good thoughts Birdman. While it was possible the 210 was the low on the CRB index, I am not really convinced of that, and think we may have a little further to drop. Yes, there is strong support at the 183-184 level where it double bottomed in 1999 and 2001, but also think it is unlikely it will be that perfect and bottom there again. My best guess is that we’ll split the difference between that level and the most recent low at 202.47, so that would put in the 193 area. I definitely think we’ll break 200 on the major bottom.
Probably one thing we all agree on is that we have to get through the summer months before we get closer to an answer on how the charts will play out. There are a lot of problems with most of the commodity indexes btw….
You probably noticed yourself but the weightings and methods of calculating changed so often that you cannot find good long term charts from the inception dates. Each time methodologies changed the charts no longer carried through in time seamlessly.
With others, they stopped producing the data so there are voids in the information. All of that makes it harder to make judgments on exactly where we are in the cycles so its no wonder there is debate about exactly what might happen next.
My favorite mid-tier Silver miner is Hecla, but I like Endeavour, Fortuna, and First Majestic as well. For the smaller producers I like Scorpio, Great Panther, Alexco, and Santa Cruz silver. I used to like Aurcana until they drove it into the ground with bad decisions, but they still have 2 mines (although the TX mine is on care and maintenance)
Here is a very encouraging press release on the 1st quarter results from Great Panther Silver and it is worth a quick review, as they are way undervalued at present.
I keep leaving off the silver/gold producers that lean more towards silver like Sierra Metals, McEwen Mining, and Silvercrest mines.
Not sure if GPR is undervalued, they currently are negative .24 per share, they could go broke yet.
The loses will increase with a decline in metal prices as well.
GPR has plenty of cash and no debt, so I wouldn’t worry about bankruptcy anytime soon.
There are better deals out there, in my opinion, but I consider GPR to be low risk compared to most juniors and average risk compared to its peers.
I do not own it.
Agreed WMK. I have been following Great Panther for 6 years, and remember when this stock was $ a share, and it has acquired more mines, resources, and reduced its all-in sustaining costs greatly since then.
Here is a blurb from their most recent 1st Quarter press release on May 6th:
“We are pleased to report first quarter 2015 financial results reflecting significant improvements in our operating cash-flow and margins”, stated Robert Archer, President and CEO. “Despite metal prices that are down significantly from the first quarter of last year, the strengthening of the US dollar, improved grades, and addition of production from San Ignacio since it commenced commercial production last June, all contributed to a significantly improved quarter.
These same factors decreased our cash cost and AISC per payable silver ounce to US$8.71 and US$14.47, respectively. It should be noted that the first quarter of last year was marked by operational disruptions that also contributed to the improved comparative results. Nonetheless, there have been a number of significant achievements on the part of our team that will continue to have a positive, lasting impact on our operations.”
Highlights compared to first quarter 2014 (“Q1 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Record metal production of 987,887 Ag eq oz, representing a 48% increase and driven primarily by the addition of production from San Ignacio;
San Ignacio production increased by 164,982 Ag eq oz, to 217,429 Ag eq oz;
Silver production increased 61% to a new quarterly record of 597,111 silver ounces;
Gold production increased 28% to 4,703 gold ounces;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 35% to US$8.71;
All-in sustaining cost per silver payable ounce (“AISC”) decreased 39% to US$14.47
Revenues increased 57% to $20.3 million;
Net income totalled $3.6 million, compared to a net loss of $0.6 million;
Adjusted EBITDA was $3.7 million compared to negative $0.5 million; and,
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in non-cash net working capital (“NCWC”), amounted to $4.8 million compared to $0.6 million.
Highlights compared to fourth quarter 2014 (“Q4 2014”), unless otherwise noted
Metal production on a Ag eq oz basis increased 8%;
Cash cost per silver payable ounce decreased 29% and AISC decreased 32%;
Revenues increased 42%;
Adjusted EBITDA increased to $3.7 million compared to negative $1.2 million;
Cash flow from operating activities, before changes in NCWC, improved by $6.1 million;
Cash and cash equivalents were $18.7 million at March 31, 2015 compared to $18.0 million at December 31, 2014; and,
Net working capital increased to $36.9 million at March 31, 2015 from $32.9 million at December 31, 2014.
Interesting MSM article (Wall Street Journal) on silver for 2015.
Some quotes:
“… this year will see silver output decline amid a dearth of new mines and as aging operations see their production fall…”
” … As a result of falling mine supply and firmer demand, the global silver market should see the supply shortfall increase in 2015, from the slight shortfall recorded in 2014 …”
” …As a result, silver prices should tick higher throughout 2015…”
“ … There’s still potential for another selloff in the next few months to send us lower, after that our base case is for a modest rally going into next year … ”
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/05/06/silver-mine-supply-is-running-out-of-steam/
I just charted the monthly SPY (over the a few years timeframe) just to have a look where MACD indicators are…
Helloooo….!
GL to all investing/trading
LPG