Friday Commentary from Gary
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That is one of the points that I was trying to make!, Spaseeba Mr. Moscow
GARY BUSINESS ARE DROPPING LIKE FLYS…………..6000 RETAIL SHOP CLOSED.
Frank…Longwood Fl. bedroom community,high income north of Orlando…large malls 1/2 vacant…strip centers with no anchors..Bennigans closed.. Steak and Ale closed..only rental property in demand is apartment or duplex…only going to get worse…
DITTO GATOR
Front Page News, Jerry, but almost no content. That trend is just a normal part of any healthy economy so we won’t make too much of the stories that people like Michael at the Economic Collapse Blog pump out to keep us all living in fear.
It’s a good thing those business are breaking down. New ones will arise. God bless them and big kiss goodbye but they won’t be missed because their time has come and gone (A message to Sears and Radio Shack just for starters).
BS
Oh I see, Jerry…..you want to end the business cycle. So now you are a FED apologist! Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!!!!! 🙂
bird You are to funny…….I never said that…..
You still have a lot of BS.
Real estate mall developers and owner ….always like losing their Anchor tenants….and out of the 6000 closed business, there are some major players losing anchor tenants……………BOOT ON THE GROUND.
That is just typical of the landlord class Mr BOOT.
They will always sacrifice a good tenant in favour of a higher monthly but lose their building to the bank in the process. The damned fools will let a good space sit idle 12 months rather than reduce a rent 7% annually to keep a viable tenant.
Do the math. Most Landlords and Brokers are complete morons when it comes to income and stability. Most are the source of business failures and shoot themselves in the feet in the process.
Its the same all over the world. I see the identical dynamics at play even where I live. I was honestly amazed how consistently the same routine plays out her just as back home.
A guy I know went on the ropes with his restaurant business. The rent was killing him. The landlord only saw an escalation coming though and ignorantly hiked the monthly which resulted in the business failing and going into bankruptcy.
So the place sits empty now. One year later there is no new tenant.
All the owner had to do to keep his tenant was do nothing or perhaps drop the rent by 5% maximum. But instead the moron added that amount by contract and lost a whole years income in the process when buddies restaurant went tits up.
What is worse? A 5% discount or 12 months lost rent? You do the math.
That’s right Bird, I was associated with malls here in Calgary. That is exactly how they think.
Needless to say, I didn’t buy shares in those property management.
They would hate me saying I owned none too. lol
Anyway Jerry, you gold bugs are the ones who always assert a “cleansing” of the economy is a good thing and yet when it happens (6000 stores closing) you guys are all freaking out that it is the Feds fault!!!!
Make up your damn mind.
Do you want a cleansing of the excess so the economy can recover and move forward or do you want to preserve the status quo? that’s why i say you are a FED apologist.
You guys don’t know which side of your watches to read. Face up or face down its all the same. Just the same recycled crap and nobody wins with the gold bugs logic because your theme is so full of holes it isn’t even funny anymore.
Lets begin again….do you really want a recovery?
OK then, that means that old dying business models need to be purged.
Don’t cry for them Jerry….their time is done….just wave bye-bye and let it go at that.
🙂 …… you are too funny….Anchor tenants are not mom and pop stores.
They are all rats, bb. Calgary and Edmonton are amongst the worst offenders. Their business models are so childishly stupid it is amazing any of them even survive. But I say let them fall.
Bankrupt the landlords. They can swim in their own bloody losses as far as I am concerned.
BIRDY……..there you go mixing words and mixing subject matter.
GOLD AND REAL ESTATE ….are two different subject, which do you want to talk about
I know what an anchor tenant is Moscow. What you don’t get is that its your philosophy that dying business should be allowed to die. Why did you bother posting that 6000 stores were closing?
Do you really think anyone here cares that a bunch of losers close their doors?
OK…lets try for a third time…..what was your point? Should we all cry (or should we rejoice)?
Birdy be nice………..
I was not talking to you to begin with……..Start at the beginning , that means listen to Gary’s comments first, then see my comment, then you will have an idea…… 🙂
Its possible your pressing for an answer from people that are not really sure Bird.
And what I have discovered, (I believe) is there is no one right answer.
Seems every economic argument has an equal and opposite to it.
Like, what is money? for example.
If we were to start from the beginning.
Round and round it goes.
Capatilism says they need to go broke, cleanse if you will.
But capitalism like gold mining kills where we live. To what end?
Socialism on the other hand eventually runs out of other peoples money.
Not to say mining doesn’t happen.
I like to think an answer is somewhere.
bb and bird………….
You guys need a tag team………
I get your point Frank from Moscow. Gary had mentioned it the jobs report was much worse that we’d see tons of small businesses closing and dropping like flies, so your response below was appropriate and tied into the discussion well.
On May 8, 2015 at 8:23 am,
Frank from moscow says:
GARY BUSINESS ARE DROPPING LIKE FLYS…………..6000 RETAIL SHOP CLOSED.
My father escaped corporate America to start a small business that ended up employing about 30 people for 2 decades. Since he was in advertising and radio stations, in 2008/2009, when we bailed out all of the “too big to fail” banks and gave them tons of free money for the last 6 years (so they can make a killing on Wallstreet), they weren’t loaning this money out to small businesses. He couldn’t secure the loan they had always got each 2-4 years in the new banking environment, shut his doors and all 30 people lost their jobs.
So if 6000 small businesses closed somebody is losing a job, and many are likely collecting unemployment, but some may have quit looking and aren’t being counted. That is the only point that everyone realizes, but it doesn’t ever get officially addressed by the federal government.
The banks aren’t loaning out the money from all this funny money that was printed up and will need to be paid for off the sweat of working people. Instead, the banks cleaned up their balance sheets with this money, or invested it for huge gains, and horded the rest. Look at all the miners that can’t get financing right now due to these commodity lows caused by the currency wars, artificially pumped general markets, and wacko government policies.
There will be more carnage in the oil and financial sectors in the next 2 quarters, which will mean even more job losses, but the next jobs report will be that many new jobs were created (aka a college student got a job seasoning fried potatoes with salt.)
🙂
I do not see how anyone in Africa can tell someone in America what real estate is like without some BOOTS ON THE GROUND……………….Ha,ha……… 🙂
Do you still hold some investment properties in real estate FFM? Ever do any tax liens?
Frank, he is also an expert on Canadian real estate, he should call himself Mr. Wonderful!
Shad……..yes, no. But, have bought at tax sales.
oh, Mr. Wonderful the boot…………. 🙂
Hi Shad……& its the same here in the UK…The Govt. bailed out the banks , on the understanding they would lend to small business, Did “THEY” F££K.
Yes, miffed IrishTony…. that is the part of the story about QE and what the financial institutions did with the money that never gets told in mainstream medial. Instead of loaning the money to small businesses (as promised when getting approval for the bailouts), the banks borrowed at 0% interest and juiced up the general stock markets.
Small businesses are the backbone of the productive economy, and the engine of job creation. 80% of companies are small businesses and those 5-100 employee companies are where most people work (dentists, plumbing & HVAC companies, exterminators, marketing companies, small specialty manufacturing, mechanic shops, law firms, accountants, beauty salons, realtors, etc….).
When small business can get loans and open new businesses, try a new idea, and become an entrepreneur, then they are actually creating something new, innovating, improving, and breaking the mold to be viable in a real marketplace. This is where the great ideas come from….not a larger and larger government providing jobs that shouldn’t even exist in the first place.
When people have jobs and do a good job, then that company wants to retain them, and will usually raise their pay to stay competitive in their local marketplace, without the government imposing a required minimum wage on all businesses. Those people that are paid, buy stuff (homes, cars, gadgets, insurance, braces, sprinklers, drywall, drapes, computers, toys, clothes, jewelry, etc…..) Everyone wins, when small businesses thrive, and jobs are created. Hard to start one without a loan though……
Retail is in trouble, and I think the dynamics of how people shop is changing, and the internet has the biggest effect of keeping butts in chairs at home ordering, versus going out to the physical stores.
I also think our unemployment is higher that what is reported, but I don’t know if it is as bad as shadow stats reports. I think people are getting by, but the economy is definitely not robust, and the biggest difference between now and the 1930’s is how many people are living off government programs and assistance (about half).
We entered the age of poor GDP growth, a consumer nation that no longer consumes as much, a nation where savers are punished with record low interest rates, and where the nanny state provides the sustenance for half the people through government programs and assistance. Think of how different of a time we are in where half the people access some kind of welfare payment, food stamps, tax exemptions, long periods of pay for unemployment (where you get paid more than going back to work), programs to let people that rack up $100K student loans get out of them unscathed, and home affordable refinance programs (where people get to refinance to save their rears, when really they had no business being loaned the money in the first place, just like most student loans).
In a real economy, the country produces something. America used to be the engine of the world and a nation that made quality items, had new innovation, and inspired the rest of the world. Now the perception of the USA is that is has become the world police with a nation of fat whining people, where everything must be overly PC or someone is offended, only half the people actually work and contribute to taxes while the other half sucks on the government teat. The only thing that has helped us along over the last decade is the internet, smart phones & their apps, and social media companies; so I wouldn’t call that a foundation to win on globally.
The BRICS continue to due their best to distance themselves from the West, the Middle East is done with the West and our Petrodollar, and more and more exchanges are being done without the dollar invited to the party as noted on the article Cory posted this week.
Sure, people have smart TVs, Tablets, smart phones, and more fuel efficient cars, and I don’t think hunger is anywhere close to where it was during the dust bowl, but the macro picture tells a different tale. We’ve mortgaged and leveraged the future earnings of everyone that does still find a job to pay for TARP, the Home Credit, Cash For Clunkers, Energy efficient tax credits, QE 2 & 3, and whatever comes next. We had cheap thrills that future generations will pay for dearly on the global stage, but the politicians that passed them and many sheeple that accepted them will be dead before the real ramification show up over the next 10-30 years….so who cares right? Wrong.
So the next step is larger and larger taxation, which causes businesses to flee overseas, steals away more jobs, and so then they go after more taxes on investors or will try to raid pension funds. Look at what a mess California is or Illinois with their high taxes and this is why businesses have been fleeing those states for the last decade. That same pattern is about to play out Nationally as the government is broke, and has to continually raise the debt ceiling (their credit card) to meet the absurd debt obligations and all these government programs and the war machine.
While the average person has a little bit better lifestyle than the 30’s due to advances in technology & food production, that doesn’t mean the dollar got stronger (because it got much weaker since the 30s), that wages are better on a percentage basis (because they aren’t) or that more people are working now. The fallacy with saying “hey we don’t have 25% unemployment now like then” totally misses the point…..The fat American cow is at home living off government assistance and isn’t working….they’re ordering a biggie size meal and having it delivered to their house so they don’t have to get off the couch an do too much work. The few us, like us, that have jobs and do contribute to society and taxes, pay the burden of all the other lazy people, illegal immigrants, and fund the charades of the government takeover of every aspect of our lives, of large “too big to fail corporations”, and a manipulated marketplace.
1) We should scrap Federal Income taxes and go to a flat consumption tax so that everyone that buys something (through their own hard work or through government hand outs) all get taxed the same. I don’t like working to pay for other peoples hand outs and think we should all be in it together.
2) Illegal immigrants get shipped out for cutting in line or sneaking into the show. Anything less is a slap in the face to people that actually go through the proper channels to gain citizenship, get a SS#, and actually contribute to the tax burden, as it is currently set up.
3) Quit punishing businesses to death with taxes or mandates to force a minimum wage. If they made it attractive to do business in the US then jobs would come back from overseas, and if they reduced down all the friggin’ rules and compliance that is choking the life of companies, then we may see some growth. Make it attractive to compete for business in the US and companies will be able to pay their workers what the marketplace decides is fair, instead of government mandates for $15 minimum wages and other such nonsense.
4) Only the bottom 5-10%, that are in real need, should get access to all these government “entitlement” programs. The rest…..get off the sofa and get back to work.
4) Unemployment should be capped at 3 months, then you need to get your butt working (not 18 months where you go golfing/fishing and live it up on the taxpayer dime for a year and a half, and then finally put a resume out there). If it is not your dream job, get over it, stop whining, and go get one of those wonderful jobs quoted in statistics at McDonalds, Walmart, or Office Depot. Sink or sail, but no more hand-holding for the masses.
5) Keep a close eye on the robots replacing people trend, and ask yourself how the job numbers will look when just 20-30% of jobs are done by machine instead of man. How many more will want unemployment benefits for 18 months or food stamps then?
That was a really interesting read, Shad. But it was too long for even me and I am not even sure where to begin answering what you wrote even though there are a hundred great points to address.
Give me something shorter I can get my teeth into, buddy!
+1
when I want to read a book I go to the library.
When I want to read the lyrics to a song, I buy the album, and at least my conversation related to the blog, unlike the song you posted Irwin.
If you don’t want to read it then just skim on down….how hard is that?
By the way …..the point was about how lazy most people are to do any real work. Point just verified.
HANG IN THERE SHAD………….
It was an awesome post Shad. I just didn’t know where to start answering. Keep em coming, man (don’t forget I am still in sick bay so concentrating is harder than usual).
OK gotcha. It was too long.
Honestly the editorial got my gears going and it turned into a rant, I didn’t realize how long it really was until I hit submit. If there are any points people agree or disagree with or just conversation points was the intent of the post. Maybe I’m just pissed because I am at work when many are able to make the same money farting around off tax money that I am doing something productive to generate, and their eating bon-bons and ordering little figurines off the home-shopping network.
My main problem is with the current taxation policy, crushing anti-business policies from the federal government, the ridiculous things the central banks are doing, and then getting kooky reports of sunshine and unicorn farts on the jobs report numbers.
It just irks me…..
Irwin…That was not a book…but then it depends on what books you read..”( 3th grade)”
Bird…You are the master of long reads….Whats good for the goose is good for the gander but then perhaps you are a bird of a different feather…..
Shad ….Some people can not handle the truth , I totally agree with everything you just wrote , keep it coming.
Thanks Irish Tony. Much appreciated 🙂
We’re screwed because of too much government intervention in business, the markets, other nations problems. We have become a nation of fat, whining, overly-sensitive ignoramuses, where half the people are reliant on hand-outs from the nanny state. Businesses left because of all the rules and taxes and took the jobs with them, and this is OK because you get paid more for 18 months to goof off as “unemployeed” than to get a job because you need to.
The future has been mortgaged to kick the can, and the next 2 generations will pay the price for today’s arrogance, government growth, and the end of the superpower status.
I’m sick of working to pay for everyone else’s “entitlements” and think we stop 80% of them, secure the boarders and welcome people to our country through the appropriate legal channels where they contribute to the tax burden.
Let’s boot the Fed Income tax for a flat consumption tax, let’s get businesses back to the US, and let’s get people off the government teat and working for a change.
Then people would wake up and realize the unemployment problem would be the #1 problem if we quit paying for people to stay home.
If people rack up bad mortgage debt and bad student loans……they don’t get off the hook, and got to work their butts off to pay it back. I don’t get forgiveness for my debts, so why should they. No more getting 100K student loan waived while you are complaining about the payments but spending all day playing video games. Work a second job, start a business, do a successful trade, open a lemonade stand…..but quit wasting my tax dollars.
So were do you really stand on the issue Shad?
Funny BB! It was a bit long and rant, but Big Al asked what we thought didn’t he?
Sure, and I agree, sorta, I really am not certain what “system” we should be using.
All seem to have their benefits and challenges.
I think we need a new one, wish I understood what it was.
Thanks for the response and valid point bb. Have a great weekend.
Birdman….I find your response hilarious considering your post to Al on the Rick A blog that you just posted today:
On May 8, 2015 at 8:46 am,
Birdman says:
Sell this rally….that’s my gut talking. I could explain why in a thousand words but what’s the point? Nobody listens or reads these posts anyway. Another one off to the dead letter box.
On May 8, 2015 at 8:55 am,
Big Al says:
You are so wrong about no body reading this. GIVE YOURSELF SOME CREDIT, BIRD. YOU DESERVE IT!
On May 8, 2015 at 9:45 am,
Birdman says:
OK….but mostly nobody ever answers.
If I can double my dose of medication it will all make more sense, Shad. Where the hell is that self-medicating button anyway? Stupid nurse. She is not helping me at all tonight.
Funny Birdman, I’m just yanking your chain because of the post you had put up “I could explain why in a thousand words but what’s the point? Nobody listens or reads these anyway. Another one off to the dead letter box….and the mostly nobody answers”
However, you did actually reply and read part of it, so for that thank you.
I guess it just struck me as funny that the article was about how lazy we are all becoming in our culture (me included), and then because it may take 2-3 minutes to read, it was too much work and everyone was too lazy to read it….the irony 🙂
No, I read all of it. But I am pretty tired lately and could not give any good response. Sorry about that. Tomorrow is another day I guess.
I’m pretty tired as well Birdman, as noted to you on yesterday’s Gary blog:
On May 8, 2015 at 2:44 am,
Birdman says:
Where the heck are you Shad? I am laughing because I figure you are in the States but this is the middle of the night most everywhere. It’s OK for me to be up at these hours with the Bats and the Vampires because its lunchtime in Nairobi…… but shouldn’t you be in bed, buddy?
On May 8, 2015 at 3:31 am,
Shad says:
Yes, I am a night owl and often post on here between 1am-4am….this is actually 5:30am (going to hit the hay for 2 1/2 hrs and then get ready for Friday).
I only average around 4 hrs a sleep a day, but it does take its toll…..
6,000 store closing sounds like a lot but it is not as large a number as it seems. Those 6,000 stores that are closing represents only about 3% of the total stores in the U.S. Of which 1,784 of these stores are Radio Shack which has been struggling for many years. So it is not surprising. Also there are over 700 closings due to the mergers of Office Depot/OfficeMax and Dollar Tree/Family Dollar. Not unusual when you have mergers. Also I am sure at least a few stores are being added and some are being expanded or remodeled. And part of the reason for some of these store closings is because of increased Internet sales which will continue to grow.
just the tip of the iceberg…….that does not even count the mom and pop units….do not fool yourself into thinking it is only 6000, that was only one report this year.
I am not fooling myself. People are making a bigger deal of it when many of the closings are not unexpected. And when are the doom-and-gloomers going to report new stores opening up or ones being expanded or money spent to have ones remodeled? Why do they not tell people why half of these 6000 stores are closing? Poorly run Radio Shack, mergers and increased Internet sales and probably competition with stores that more profitable and are gaining market share. Also changes in population.
Mega Malls to replace strip centers………there I have reported good news.
THERE are 1030 MALLS IN THE US. according to GreenStreet Advisors………15% are expected to fail within 10 years. Good news they will be converted to other uses.
I can see you refuse to accept the facts that not all stores are closing because of the economy so instead you just want to be a smart ass.
Oh no , I was agreeing with your observation, my friend.
Sorry Frank, my apologies then.
Great points JMiller. I guess it just tells us there are two ways of looking at the same story. My objection was mostly about the people who make a living as Gloomer’s and publish these kind of stories with the usual “panic” slant.
Then the hunt is on for who to pin the blame on. Pick from the usual suspects. The evil bankers, the Fed, the government and their cronies, a cabal of conspirators. It gets to be pretty funny after awhile.
Anyway, I don’t know about you but the last time I was shopping in either a Sears or a Radio Shack can be counted in years by the fingers of both hands. Nobody I know shops there anymore. That’s the reason behind their failures.
It’s just that better options came along and those guys could not keep up to the changes so their business formula led them to ruin. But this story is more than a decade old already. I have been hearing about Sears demise since the Seventies!
If that company could not sort itself out in forty or fifty years they deserve to fail.
BLACK YOUTH JOBLESS report over 25%
Thanks for those two comments, my point exactly!
Just what the doctor ordered. Jobs report was nicely massaged. Not too hot and not to cold. Just right. I started buying my XOP back too early and should have waited for the cycle for a few weeks. Sold XOP above 56. I bought more today at 51.2 and 50.56 to average down. Lower bollinger band is 51.15. Oil stocks have fallen hard while oil has done quite well.
Good to hear from you Paul L!
It is nice to hear you sounding better and healthier. I hope you recover fully.
Getting better every single day Paul L. Thanks much for the kind words. It was an interesting time!
Every time I had a close call with death it was interesting. Really interesting.
I would not want to repeat even one of those events though.
frank : I understand the concern about less workers participating in economy. BUT many like myself are now starting to take our social security and retire. I an now 68. All the countrys that were in WW 2 now have large tranch of retired people. Its a annomily that cant be helped, and will self correct in 30 years . The world will survive. All the tea party style repubs, will regret scaring seniors with talk about ss old age pensions failing . Gradual changes will be made to correct the situaion . S
The bulge corrects in seven years r. scott hamilton. Just look at the demographic pyramid of the US for hints. The bulge problem is nowhere near as big as the media makes out and it will resolve itself because of the next generation behind us.
Just requires patience is all.
Things are better than in the 30’s only because, instead of standing in soup lines, people are collecting food stamps and government bennies. The strain show up as increased collective (government) debt.
My point exactly, cmc!
The debt will never be paid, cmc….so don’t worry about it until the money runs out.
PS: ….the money will never run out as long as it can be conjured into existence.
Gary says things are not so bad, but instead of long soup lines like in the great depression, we have soup being delivered to one’s home via food stamp debit cards. I think the bad times are disguised via new government means of distributing help.
That’s their goal Ron.
What is wrong with redistribution whether by soup cards or bread? Nothing has changed.
You really can’t compare food stamps today with the soup lines of the 1930’s depression. About half of the adults on food stamps are employed. And more of them can get a job if they wanted to but why bother when you get all those “freebies”. Those men standing in soup lines in the 1930’s, however, had no job. And many had several children and a wife to feed. The people today on food stamps are much better off than those men in the 1930’s, many who were proud and hardworking. Probably all of them would do any kind of work if it meant that they would not have to stand in a soup line. The same can’t be said of some of those getting food stamps.
Al: Several things are much different and help moderate the affects of todays life in the USofA. There were no foodstamps, no unemployment & workman’s comp. insurance, no 0% auto loans, no 4% mortgges, no thrift stores where people can cloth themselves inexpensively if need be. I find it interesting that pictures of the protestors in Baltimore, for instance, aren’t shoeless like the kids of the depression. Their hats and shirts are all expensively logoed.
The comparison I believe you can make is that the purchasing power of a weekly check doesn’t buy what it did in the 70’s and it takes both Mom and Dad working to stay even.
By pointing out these items, don’t think I don’t agree with your thoughts on the future. Somehow, the wealth of this country has to have more recipients than the few thousand that now enjoy it. If it isn’t eventually shared, it will be taken!
Thanks Silverdollar!
So, looks like we are going to get another run up to 5132 or thereabouts on the NASDAQ again.
How about this instead Al….lets ask this question: “Are things really worse than they were in the Thirties”?………….As opposed to “are things better”?
—————–
Hey Gary! Good comment on the 25% unemployment myth. You are correct that the info some websites are feeding us is wrong. Anyone of us could walk out our front doors and look around and answer that question about employment levels without a copy of any survey in our hands.
Business is doing well. Restaurants are full. There are not a thousand strength soup lines in progress.
We don’t even need to consult that basement dwelling loser John Williams of Shadow-Stats to know things are not exactly as bad as the Gloomers and Doomers would lead us to believe.
But I have a question for you….Why does America need a cleansing process?
That’s a serious question by the way. Do you really think that all the mal-investment in the world in only in the USA? We need to look outside the borders of America and then maybe that idea starts to make more sense.
Wasted capital and investment is hardly confined to the one country that ALREADY suffered an epic real estate and asst correction. The idea you talk about is almost an old fashioned notion at this stage of the game.
Let the cleansing begin elsewhere.
okay Bird, where?
Jesus Al, don’t you know already?
Sorry Al….just a knee jerk reaction post. I did mean China (but shhhhh…. don’t tell anyone!)
Questions for you Bird…
Why the nasty remark about John Williams? You don’t believe his stats?
Second. .What do you mean by cleansing? financial, political, ?
Williams has an agenda and he is a manipulator of statistics. He has not adjusted with the times nor accounted for the technological, monetary and fiscal changes we are all confronted with.
The problem with John is he wants to keep us all locked in to an insular USA-centric 1950’s version of inflation that is not applicable to how economies are measured anymore so he has become an anachronism and a dinosaur.
He reminds me of the Gold-bugs who pine endlessly for the return of barter money while having no conception that idea has left the stage and been replaced by far more efficient methods of transacting that the public has already embraced
So I am very sorry. But John is an old fashioned dork in a bad suit and I wouldn’t give his interviews more than a passing view at this stage. His stats are pretty much worhtless….buggy whip data….gold bug material….total waste of time.
So Bird….are you saying you believe the administrations stats? can’t believe you are that gullible…
Never said that. But I won’t rely on John either. Two extremes do not add up to a correct conclusion Mr Gator. John Williams runs an anti-government propaganda agenda that appeals to the gold bug community and that is his fan base. So he does a good job appealing to the lowest common denominator of fools who cling to hard money. I have no problem with that. Neither will I listen to the tripe he spews because I am not part of his constituency.
HANG IN GATOR……….
There is nothing “extreme” about what Williams does. However…
“In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” —George Orwell, English essayist, novelist, & satirist (1903 – 1950)
“Ye shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.” —Aldous Huxley
I’ve seen this truth a lot in recent years:
“Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized. In the first, it is ridiculed, in the second it is opposed, in the third it is regarded as self-evident.” ~Arthur Schopenhauer
Wait a sec..doesn’t the truth set you free?
PS: John runs an agenda. There is surely no question about that!
Maybe truth is only what one believes. But that is not the truth for everyone.
John’s agenda is to provide the truth since the government won’t. There is one truth, but…
“Truth, like gold, is to be obtained not by its growth, but by washing away from it all that is not gold.” ~Leo Tolstoy
So you are saying the government lies but John tells the whole truth? Funny stuff.
The real knee-slapper is that anyone would believe the official numbers.
good one wmk
I think there is some truths to your assessment of John William”s “stats.” According to him, we should have been in a hyper inflation a year ago. His +20 unemployment b.s is a mirage. See him on Sinclair’s and Greg ? “U.S Watchdog” scare mongering sites. There has got to be more credible “statisticians” out there. Some one legit like a David Cay Johnston but for stats and not American corporate Tax shams. Can anyone on this site recommend some better less fear based sources?
His stats are fine even IF his conclusions are not.
Eating right out of his hands. Good for you.
BIRDy,
I think there is some truth in your assessment of John William”s “stats.” According to him, we should have been in a hyper inflation a year ago. His +20 unemployment b.s is a mirage. See him on Sinclair’s and Greg ? “U.S Watchdog” scare mongering sites. There has got to be more credible “statisticians” out there. Some one legit like a David Cay Johnston but for stats and not American corporate Tax shams. Can anyone on this site recommend some better less fear based sources?
Agree. Yes I have heard him not too long ago. It was the usual menu of stuff about hyperinflation, end of times scenarios for the economy, why the banks are to blame, money is a Ponzi scheme blah blah blah….!
The guy is such a BORE!
JOHN WILLIAMS will be on usawatchdog…….SUNDAY… for all the boys who want to know the real truth…………… 🙂
It is a *version* of the truth Jerry. And not a very good one at that.
The info which he contributes is not yours to determine for everyone , if it is ..”not a very good one at that”………..seem to me you are stuck on the Hyperinflation statement, but, can not refute anything else. Or can you?……my friend……f the boot.
Bird,
Not just America but the world needs to allow the normal cleansing process. Instead the world has just taken on more and more debt that will just keep the cycle going like it has for 30 years in Japan.
Yup. I agree with that Gary. The problem is world-wide but some countries are far more vulnerable than others. I just don’t see the US as the place where a big cleansing is overdue because the way the system is designed that cleansing is pretty much ongoing all the time.
Where we will see a market clearing event of past excesses is in Asia and most specifically China. Feel the pain, man. It is them this time and not us who need to remove surplus clutter, unused factory space, excess capacity and even wasted labour from the market.
But they do not have the tools or experience to deal with what is coming.
China has one of the most disorganized and inefficient market places on the planet. I really fear for their ultimate correction because of all the dependencies implied. The whole idea that a top-down system of management can control the economic descent is beyond belief and should not be relied upon.
Basically, they do not have any relief valves built into their system to let the pressure off. Rather, there is an abnormal reliance upon central authorities to solve each problem as it arises.
All fine and good in normal times….. Right up until a genuine crisis breaks out.
Just watch. There is no method to manage the crash that is coming.
NONE
Great point. Two days ago I was just talking to a colleague regarding the surge in the Asian markets. I brought up the point about the surge in 2010 with the Chinese shell companies. Any company with “China” in the name rallied. Then they all collapsed.
Short story, but I agree there must be a cleansing process.
Bird,
What’s your take on selling this rally? I saw in prior comment that you thought it should be sold??? What do you think about timing?
I am hard bitten Richard because every time I felt sure a correction was coming we all got beat and instead saw new highs or a market that powered up and kicked the pants off the shorts.
Still, my gut tells me (and of course my gut is quite technical) that we do finally have a 10 to 15% correction in the offing. I peg it starting next week (Monday) and base part of my reasoning on the fact the Shanghai has just seem nearly 10% in declines.
More to the story than that but its just wasted breathe right now. I will be buying China after their correction is done. I see a very large push higher and a lot of momentum behind the trade.
But it is the last wave higher into September / October….and then get the hell out.
Birdman, this is one time I have to strongly disagree with you. The way they calculate employment has changed, big time. Just like inflation. Even their revisions only go one way because they initially want the numbers to look better.
In my opinion the only sign you need to see to get a reading of the economy is printed money. Not just how much but for how long.
And keep in mind that the only reason they print is because it would be impossible to tax that amount. And they would have to do it year after year.
You would think with all the money creation, this country would at least have the best streets, bridges, sewers , water and pipes systems , electric grid, schools healthcare etc. but we have nothing. Nothing close.
But no. If I just use the city I live in, it’s a dump compared to what it once was 20 to 50 years ago. More section 8 houses every day. I never seen a house with roof patches in this city before but they are everywhere. Nothing significant is getting better even though we are still printing.
But there is one simple thing you can ask yourself to test what kind of shape this country is in.
If tomorrow we stopped print money, what would happen?
The truth is we are being run by psychopaths. The voting machines have been changed and are now compromised, so why bother voting anymore.
So my conclusion is we do need a cleansing process. And what needs to be cleansed from this country is the people running this country. From top to bottom including the bankers. Empty the jails of the non violent and fill them with the true criminals.
gregd….I agree with many of your points……………… the boot.
So you are saying you disagree with me? OK. I am cool with that.
But that does not make John Williams right. The guy is a glutton for media attention and pushing his story that nobody else seems to get. How do I know that? ….well because he is the self appointed expert on inflation stats that nobody else can be bothered to verify or review.
Isn’t it weird that ONLY John has all the answers to what is real inflation versus what we are being told? Quite a franchise that. And he will interview anywhere he gets asked.
Talk about a compromise since the normal media would not give him ten seconds of their time. Wonder about that for a second. Don’t you think that if he had valid points that someone other than the fringe media might give him an interview?
…………normal media?………..
HA,HA……….good one………….. 🙂
Hello Birdman, I hope you’re feeling better.
I believe what John Williams is doing is, he’s ignoring how they do the statistics now and he’s doing them the way they did back when we had at least a more honest government. He’s the only one doing it. That doesn’t mean he’s right but in my opinion his way is closer to the truth. That’s it. Straight and simple.
No problem at all Greg. But I have to add that if John’s methods had any real validity then why has the dreaded hyperinflation not yet broken out? Meanwhile the methodology for accounting for inflation has been changed because the older systems were not generating data that was consistent with what the country was actually experiencing.
Lets just say that inflation accounting has evolved and it has been done with our national interests in mind. What Williams never seems to consider is what the Fed response would have to be should we use his old methods.
Do you really want to see a crisis? Then lets just put John in charge for a year. We would all be ruined. Thank you very much but as far as I am concerned he can keep living in his Mom’s basement and publishing his fantasy numbers for the gold bugs and social outsiders that populate the blogs.
Birdman, it’s not validity he or we are after, its illumination. As for his call of hyperinflation he has stated he was wrong on the timing.
What I think many people don’t quite understand is that we don’t want or need the fed or their response. If we have illumination then we can make what adjustments are needed for ourselves. I guess you can say a free society to succeed or fail on our own.
I think we will have a crisis and its necessary and it will be severe but that’s because of the feds and the government’s policies. Recessions are natural and necessary. Its the protection of the 1% by bailouts that hurts the other 99% and the rule of law.
Greg, i disagree with almost every word you write lately. I am very sorry but what you say makes no sense to me. It is not even about a defense of Williams who I happen to believe is running one of the more affective propaganda campaigns. You just say ridiculous stuff period.
Hang in there gregd…..
lol Bird, your sounding a bit like a “new world order” proponent, one government for everyone.
Maybe its actually a good idea. I don’t think so but ya never know.
It’s OK bb…I just don’t like John Williams. The guy is a turkey. Who says I need to like him without being included in the NWO order agenda anyway? It is not “us versus them” ……….It’s just me versus John Williams and his bad accounting and data manipulation.
Nothing wrong with disagreeing with Williams, you could be right.
As far as employment goes, pretty much everyone I know is working that physically/mentally can.
Everyone I know too. Good to hear you say that.
10 year old bond yield is never wrong. At 2% your economy sucks!
(OT)
Al, Cory
Will you be discussing quarterly results from Claude on Saturday show; it would seem like a segment on solid fundamental analysis regarding profits (etc) would be interesting to do.
Sell in May — Just not today! 🙂
The labor report is all smoke and mirrors gents:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-08/americans-not-labor-force-rise-record-93194000
It does not matter if it is smoke and mirrors – DOW up almost 270 points at time of writing.
Nothing matters anymore it seems.
IT MATTERS DON’T WORRY ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFeWw2YFXlM
JOHN WILLIAMS of shadow stats….. TO BE ON ….usawatchdog…………SUNDAY….
Bird….I would put much more credence in what John Williams says , than in what the US or any Govt says.
Lets see what he says and then we can talk about it later.
Thanks Frank…..The Boot. I’ll check it out, because I do enjoy hearing his perspective.
Here’s the link to that show with John Williams on USA watchdog for reference:
http://usawatchdog.com/new-recession-closer-to-depression-john-williams/
Most people don’t realize how far technology is destroying our way of life by replacing jobs previously done by humans and the worse part of this is many think that it creates work for us by repairing robots. Robots don’t need humans to repair defective plug in parts but the technology is moving so fast that the robot is replaced by a cheaper more efficient model and the most advanced machines are continually in charge of redesigning themselves. Humans are only part of evolution and we are engineering our own demise. Cheap labor doesn’t matter any more, high technology has already taken over. This is a big part of the death of the middle class and now we are seeing transport trucks that are driverless, wake up!
Twenty years after World War I , WWII was upon us, the technology from 1918 to 1939 was truly awesome, now we have had 70 years of technology after the end of WWII in 1945. The world no longer resembles the past.
Its a brave new world DT…..
Birdman, if you don’t like him that fine with me. There’s people I don’t like and I’m not sure why. And, fact is you may be right. I just agree with him because he makes sense to me. I just felt they changed the way they calculate unemployment and gdp for a reason. Then when he explained it, it fit my thinking. So again, you may be right. It’s just a disagreement. I really do value you’re opinion.
lOOK inside the numbers for jobs.
– 93 million people not working or participating in workforce.
– 266,000 OLD WORKERs… over 55 years old still working, where is the youth employment
– 477,000 Part Time workers.