Morning Commentary from Gary Savage
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No doubt the Greek people are in a tough position. The Country can not pay back its debt and the party they elected can not do anything close to what was promised.
Interesting to hear that there is considerable unrest CFS. Thanks for sharing.
There were some great points brought up on the Frank Holmes article, that Cory posted yesterday, that seem to be in agreement with the points Gary made at the beginning of this editorial.
Reposted from yesterday’s article w/ Frank Holmes:
On May 12, 2015 at 6:51 am,
Shad says:
Great points from Frank Holmes that QE didn’t really end in October. I never hear the mainstream media talk about this:
“Did you think quantitative easing (QE) had ended? In spite of having “ended” QE in October of last year, the Fed has continued to purchase about $30 billion of securities per month in order to offset maturities and reinvestments and keep its balance sheet constant. Cornerstone Macro notes the Fed will face a sort of “balance sheet cliff” next year, whereby a lot of Treasury securities in its portfolio will start maturing (see top chart below). The Fed is very unlikely to go off such a cliff and it will most likely “reverse taper” the cessation of reinvestments.”
Thanks for the insight, Shad
Your welcome, and it is really I that appreciate your forum of ideas, Cory for posting it, and Frank for writing it, and Gary for touching on the subject today. 🙂
I love the action and sentiment. GDXJ is up 25% in two months and few have bullish in any meaningful way. This has been a great time and I’ve been very heavily invested in it.
I expect this “wall of worry” action to continue.
GDXJ is on its third attempt to deal with this Schiff fork:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p09727891017&a=406951885
GDXJ is also trying to break out of the same Fib arc for the third week in a row.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=4&mn=11&dy=0&id=p63582901648&a=404285872
3 times a charm!!
A good interview with Frank Holmes from yesterday where he was noting the strength in the PM miners and the support base for gold, but he is typically bullish.
Maybe, maybe not, last year same set-up, appeared that the miners found a floor, what a big mistake that was for me. I’m following Gary’s advice here, and I’m going to stay out. Got out of my diamonds, waste of time. Only holding a natural gas ETF.
Yes, Jane I agree that we have no way of knowing for sure if the short term floor will be a longer term floor, but my point was only the relative strength of miners in comparison to the spot metals, and as WMK points out, the fact that GDXJ is testing the Schiff fork and Fib arc for the 3rd time shows there is some buying pressure that could push the miners a little higher in the short term, if they can break above those levels on round 3.
However, I am also guarded and very cautious here because I personally expect lower metal prices to eventual overwhelm some of the strength in the miners in the next few months. When companies I like have been pulling back, I’ve been gradually accumulating but am still only in about 40%, and prepared to exit quickly should the need arise.
You are probably the smart one though for sitting on the sidelines 🙂
At the moment gold is managing to trade sideways, but only while the dollar is dropping into an intermediate cycle low. What happens when the dollar starts to rally again and heads to 110 or 120.
It’s too early to get uber bullish on gold until we see what happens once the dollar bottoms.
I completely agree Gary, and think when the dollar does start its climb up higher that it will start to pressure the precious metals at that time.
My expectation is still for the washout in PMs over the next few few months along with the commodities, but think we need a little more bullishness before that will start. I am just looking at the short term to see if Gold and in particular the miners have a little more steam left. Also, if/when we get that sentiment washout later this year, I’ll be getting the most bullish when I see people throwing in the towel, and when sentiment gets its most bearish towards PMs.
I am keeping a position in PMs that I started building positions in basket of miners & explorers last year and overall the the basket of stocks and ETFS is profitable or at an break-even presently. Also, I’ve had a great time playing GDXJ to upside and the downside using (JNUG) and (JDST) irregardless of the spot price.
I haven’t lost site of the fact that we haven’t disproved that November was the lows in gold and the miners yet, so we still could be in a stealth bull market and not even realize it. I’m not really married to a bullish position, and if it looks like the washout is coming on hard, then I’ll obviously trim positions or sell most positions and get out of the way of the falling knives.
If we do see further dollar weakness down to 92 that may give a little life to a further rise in commodities for a short bit. If the dollar gets down there, then I’ll start taking profits in a number of commodity-related plays.
…..and we got our breakout today. Dollar down to $93.52 (closing in on the $92 level).
Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) -NYSEArca
26.65 Up 0.77(2.98%) 12:18PM EDT – Just took out key resistance at $26.57
PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) -NYSEArca
8.03 Up 0.28(3.59%) 11:47AM EDT – JR Silver Miners outperforming Jr Gold miners
Right on schedule.
I am not implying this is the major bottom, just the PM price pop that was expected, and that the silver miners would out-perform the gold miners on legs up and on dips down.
Correction: “few have BEEN bullish…”
Your comment on GDXJ is spot on. The stocks have been able to move without gold or silver doing much of anything! Hopefully this is foreshadowing something coming down the line.
Thanks for sharing Frank!
Here’s a chart to go with Bob Moriarty’s article today:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PSLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p90524876404&a=369256731
(And I completely agree with his conclusion.)
wmf, Bob is known for how well he reads “Tops and Bottoms”.
Traders are schizo today. It seems they don’t know which way to turn. Anyone else get that impression?
good morning CMC. I replied to you on the Chris Temple blog from yesterday about long term bond yields, and strategy on using (TLT) versus (TBT) in the short, mid, and long term. I also posted a bunch of great thoughts from other contributors on the 30 year bonds at the very bottom. It’s worth a read.
So far going in at $18.54 this morning in the pre-markets on (TLT) is working out…..it’s at $120.44 at present. I was expecting a counter-trend bounce at 119 and have been writing about it for 2 weeks in the blog. However, I do think bond yields will continue to rise, but in the next few months, it would not surprise me if the bond yields and went down and tested the all time lows one more time. Then I feel 30 year bond party is definitely over for years. That will be the time to stock up on (TBT).
Thanks Shad. Looks like a lot of good info there. I will check it out.
May your investing and trading be very profitable CMC. Cheers!
Shad, I read your comments at yesterdays blog. We have Gary looking for another run up in the dollar to reach the last peak with maybe a pull down to the 92 level first. So, TLT looks promising until the dollar peaks one more time, and then TBT looks interesting. Thoughts?
Again, thanks for all the commentary you put together.
Yes, I agree with that CMC. My basic thesis for a while has been waiting for the dollar to roll over to 92 (fib retracement) and then make it’s climb back up which would put pressure on commodities. The only difference is I’ve had to move the timeline back a little is all to allow for the dollar to fall. When it hits 92 I’ll re-evaluate, but may take profits. Below are my remarks to Birdman about a month ago and they haven’t changed much:
On April 15, 2015 at 6:56 am,
Shad says:
“If the USD double-tops and the Euro double-bottoms, as you expect to play out, I’ll be watching for that and act accordingly, but if the dollar keeps going higher past the 100.39 level (which I expect it do over the next 2-3 months) then 110 is where I’d cap the rally, and I do not expect it to take out 120.
I do believe a rise in the dollar would pressure the commodity space in May and maybe into June. However, if the dollar does roll over near 100-101, then I could see the calls for PMs and commodities to rise in May & June, as the reverse scenario would play out.
We’ll have to see where the market pushes the greenback, and when it will decide to roll over and head down to 92.”
So the dollar did double top near 100 and did turn down so “the opposite” scenario I laid out has happened where the dollar got weaker and is heading down, and this has boosted some commodities like Oil. Gold, Silver, Palladium, Copper, etc…
I believe this trend will reverse when the dollar starts its climb back up, and could be the trigger for the washout in commodities and sentiment everyone’s be waiting for. We’ll just have to see how it all plays out….
Have a good one!
CMC – just for clarity….. Yes I’m thinking TLT will be good as the dollar moves into strength, and then TBT will look good when the dollar rolls over at it’s highs in a few months and starts a multi-year downward trajectory at that time.
In the short term, it was good confirmation that TLT tagged the $118-$119 zone and then turned sharply back up today. That was right on cue with what was anticipated. However, I stress this bounce is likely to be very short-lived as I expect the dollar to still head lower in the near term which will influence the 30 year bond yields and vice-versa.
So far so good on TLT again today. I’m probably going to take profits soon.
I was very happy to get into my TLT position at $118.54 and it was just $120.60 so I am chickening out here a modest 1.74% profit. The bond markets are just too scary right now (which is a funny statement to me). I am not impressed with this bounce and don’t know what kind of legs it is going to have, and would rather get side-lined.
**If you look at most charts (which rarely take into account after hour and pre-market trading), then TLT cascaded down from $130 and nailed the $119 level exactly as projected and then bounced right on cue. I’d say that was good call, but from here I’m not really sure, so I’m out to watch and see what happens.
Shad–sitting on the sidelines because I lost a lot of money last year. Money that I couldn’t afford to lose, and haven’t confessed to family yet. I got problems. Thanks anyway for suggesting I’m smart.
Well please know that I was actually being serious and meant it. Sometimes the very smartest strategy of them all is sitting on the sidelines when you don’t have a good trend established in a sector or stock. When there are people that have opinions you respect, like Gary Savage, (whom I also respect a great deal), that have technical reasons to be cautious with the metals, then all the more reason to be cautious.
I wish you all the best.
Thanks
If GDX can break out of this bullish wedge, I think it will cement its bear markets lows soon after.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=3&dy=0&id=p25672504880&a=389600417
I’m going to say from looking at that chart, there is a good possibility another low will be made in GDX. IF (and that is a BIG IF) that happens, THEN I think GDX will have made it’s bottom.
That type of volume is what one sees when nearing a bottom. I would like to see a “throw under” of the wedge pattern, accompanied by a spike in volume selling volume that would signal an exhaustion. Who knows? Maybe the bottom is in for GDX but I think it has just one more low to make, or at least, come very close to the old lows.
Also, I haven’t changed my lower target for gold in two years now and i’m sticking with it :-). But if it doesn’t get there, no big deal.
Thanks, nalA kraM! 😉
LOL!! nalA kraM…
I like it.
Why would anyone buy the Russell?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$RUT&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39982249673&a=372158902&listNum=1
Good question WMK. I think there are some unique companies (individually) in the Russell 2000 that have some room to grow, and as an index the Russell 2000 has been on a tear for years (like all the general stock market indexes have). I am waiting for some further nose-bleed territory to start shorting with (TZA).
Avi Gilburt is convinced the Russell is going to spike up, so I’m watching for that.
The Russell 2000 keeps knocking its head against the bottom of that trend-line so it is most likely that the 1300 number will be the resistance area more or less. I’ll probably short it with TZA around that area, then sell out after a dip, and wait for it to retest. Then whenever it’s done blowing off to new highs the second time through 1300 then I’ll short it for the longer term.
Tried to play some relatively short dated IWM calls last week… and got slapped… 🙁
It happens… 🙂
Best to you WMK,
LPG
Playing short dated calls is not exactly what I was referring to when I asked why anyone would buy here (in the short term there can always be a good setup in either direction). 🙂
Yes, market slappings are a little too common if you ask me! 🙁
Al, gold as an investment of LAST resort? That’s funny coming from a gold/silver site.
Big change from a couple years ago of gold/silver shortages etc etc.
Just struck me as funny.
I think he means it is the ultimate backstop and safety net against the policies of governments and central banks that many people still believe will ultimately fail. Kind of like if all your assets could go up in smoke at least you still have some gold.
🙂
Of course if everything goes up in smoke then gold will be worthless. Food and ammunition will be priceless.
and Whiskey, Toilet Paper, and batteries.
And chickens 🙂 Mmmmmm ….chicken!
Gold will not be worthless; never has been, never will be.
Those who believe in the potential for a “Mad Max” scenario are making a big mistake. Whether consciously or not, they are endorsing the ridiculous propaganda that civilized society requires government. Nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, government has always operated in a way that is outside of what is universally considered civilized behavior. Government itself is the true barbarous relic, not gold.
Agreed. Thousands of years as a store of value and the fact that the East (China, India, Russian, Vietnam, Thailand) are gobbling up gold tells me it isn’t going to zero.
It may even be going to hero……..
Also +1 about the government being the barbarous relic !
Scary thought but you are probably right Gary.
We are probably going out with a whimper, Cory so we won’t have to worry about building defensive moats and arming the four corners of our land. A bit like the West Coast Natives of the 1800’s who caught European virus’s before 98% of them simply vanished during their major epidemic period. You know, its the same old routine….it’s the strong that survive. And that’s not always the guys with the guns and the gold.
Silver is about to accelerate its gains against gold. I think slv:gld can break out of its 6 month uptrend channel by early June. Either way, silver’s where it’s at.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p00591494948&a=407706196
Bring it! That is why I’ve been taking positions in Silver miners as discussed in detail on the weekend show. Really Silver miners out-performed the Gold miners from the end of last year in the rally through Feb, but then sold off earlier and harder in March and April. Silvers move is always more extreme than gold on the way up and down, but it isn’t for the mild-mannered 🙂
It can be quite the ride with silver but as I continue to believe the mid-cap and small miners could be some big winners when the market turns.
absolutely!
Yep. CEO of v.fmg is on site right now with potential jvs. Neighbours cge and Mai are moving to production. Small scale area play. V.fmg has the best potential.
For MAI are you referring to Minera Alamos bringing their new copper/moly mine into production?
Toronto, April 22, 2015 – Minera Alamos Inc. (the “Company” or “Minera Alamos”) (TSX-V: MAI) is pleased to announce that it is re-initiating the development of its Los Verdes copper-molybdenum project in Sonora, Mexico.
and for FMG are you referring to First Mexican Gold Corp? (sorry I struggle with the Canadian ticker symbols sometimes as I can’t get them to pull up in my trading account every time). I am guess that is correct because they are also in Sonora, Mexico.
http://www.fmgoldcorp.com/_resources/presentations/FMG-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
As for Corex Gold Corp, I’m not very familiar with them either, but it doesn’t look like they are far enough along to get their project into production yet as they are still getting permitted and haven’t defined their resource all the way yet, but it does look like they are making some good progress.
Yes all neighbours. Chester Millar (h morgan and company) are backing corex. They also backed and were behind Alamos gold and argonaut during their start up days. Exciting area but few are paying attention. Yes minera Alamos. I like Fmg as they have bonanza grades at surface and multiple zones.
Interesting Peter. I’ll be keeping an eye on this area play in Sonora, Mexico. Thanks for the heads up as I was unfamiliar with these companies. Great information sir.
Gary, why would the Fed support the stock markets on the one hand while saying publicly they are over valued on the other? That makes no sense to me.
So they can buy at a better price of course 🙂
It is like the JP Morgan or Goldman Sucks technique. Talk down the markets to unload your short positions, then go long and ride the wall of worry back up. The repeat.
I’d say it has to do with getting the public to help them (unwittingly, of course). By keeping retail money nervous and mostly in cash, the Fed can keep extending the move with less effort -get people to sell/sell short and then squeeze them. But once everyone who can buy has bought, their job will become almost impossible.
Once the herd of price-chasers is in, who will be left to play the role of greater-fool/bag-holder?
+1 Shad.
Best,
LPG
Makes sense to me guys. Maybe they are playing the fiddle from both ends.
🙂
Bird,
That one is easy.
They support the market because it keeps the economy from rolling over into recession.
They have to at the same time try not to allow a bubble to form One sure way of doing that would be to let the world know you are going to backstop the market. So we get nonsense like what came out of Yellens mouth the other day. Hell the Fed is the reason the market is overvalued.
They are the master spin-doctors….they create the bubble, then try to talk it down.
I didn’t know they were still around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NjtY_6J061Q
Considering what they’re doing, I guess I thought they were just talking heads.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNnAvTTaJjM
They are definitely Burning Down the House!!
We only get a situation like this Once in a Lifetime….
Good question Bird. I think that it is the banks and traders keeping the market high. The Fed just does not want the market to suddenly drop.
and the banks are getting their virtually 0% interest rate free money from the fed to invest in the markets. Also the Fed is still spending $30 billion a month in securities.
So to warn about higher prices and then spend $30 billion again this month, as you hook up your banking cronies is just Fed-double-speak.
Gary, you mentioned you hold Nat Gas… could you elaborate a bit why?
Check a long term NG chart genesys. Gary is not alone here.
Thank you Birdman…. I prefer cash…and prefer to meet the crisis with lots of cash… but maybe small NG position maybe worth it.
Good question Genesys and thanks for the answer Bird!
Google, Forbes/Bottom For US Natural Gas In sight, and Five Stocks That Could Triple if Boone Pickens Is Right About $6.00 Natural Gas. Also, Obama gave is approval to start exporting gas. Then today Patriot Coal filed Chapter 11. The true reason why natural gas soared, not weather. Natural Gas is rising, but inventories are still high. If on Thursday EIA announces another big injection, then prices could correct again for awhile. I hope this was helpful.
This article…
Five Stocks That Could Triple If Boone Pickens Is Right About $6 Natural Gas — Forbes
http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2015/04/28/five-stocks-that-could-triple-if-boone-pickens-is-right-about-6-natural-gas/2/
Free shipping on orders over $499.00
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SprottMoney.com
Interesting change. I guess they are trying to get more people buying…
They need cash to buy the silver MINERS!
Gary,
You are double talking again, in your weekend blog you said you are expected the stock markets to go up the next few weeks, now in your interview you today you said cycle n sentiment favor the market to go down
cat,
Different time frames.
Short term it looks like we might see a retest of 5132.
Longer term I have my doubts whether the market can sustain a breakout above that level without first moving down into an intermediate degree correction.
But then again if the Fed can prevent the US markets from correcting then they may take off once Europe bottoms.
This is why one can’t sell short. If it plays out that way I’ll have to chase. At the moment I just have a small 10% position in TQQQ on the chance that we get another move back up to 5132.
Gary. I have never been able to follow your medium to long term. They are all over the place
anyone check out Morris Hubbartts charts last Friday on 321gold..?? I think the 3rd time down as in chopping -then up—- also a good piece on 321 today by Thomson..
Thanks for the tip Agatha, I’ll go check it out. Much appreciated.
Here’s a link to the article from Stewart Thomson:
Gold Stocks: Three Keys For The Bulls
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_051215.html
Agatha
I always listen to Morris Hubbard’s weekly video analysis. Although DOC has been my main teacher, being able to simultaneously look at a chart and have it explained is very helpful. I actually have developed my own set of TA overlays and indicators (that seem to work for my own stocks). Morris is a pattern-guy, too (he loves the H&S pattern and sees it everywhere)
Hey I wonder if DOC would do some video chart analysis?
That would be cool for the video chart analysis with any of our speakers. It is helpful to watch the charts with them, or at least have them post screen shots of the technical indicators they are using and highlight, circle, or notate the areas they are talking about. Gary Savage does do this sometimes as does Avi Gilburt.
This chart does not show today’s action, but the Andrew’s pitchfork is capping gold so far.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99112526366&a=406396269&listNum=1
Ok, now this chart shows today’s action. Gold is still capped by the 55 day ema and that fork.
If the November low is the bottom for gold, then
Gary’s cycle technique requires further refinement.
Agreed, and that is why I personally haven’t completely gone to the sideline. I am prepared to get out of the way quickly if the washout comes, but if November was the low, then other investors have missed positioning themselves for the uptrend.
I’m 40% in and 60% out for my precious metals allocations, but may trim a few positions if we get a little breakout back to 30/70 or 25/75.
I hope you turn out to be right and we have put in the final bottom. This sideways movement is fine with me… better than a big drop lower 😉
None of us know the future;
except you, Cory. Congrats!
Shad,
Be very careful with that train of thought. If, when a washout happens there will be less than zero liquidity on the sell side in most of the names. We’ve already seen act I of this man-made catastrophe.
Unless its a Barrick or a Newmont type behemoth getting fill’s that represent good value will be very dicey in that type of a sell first, ask questions later market.
Yes, I did consider that very thing Vortex and do appreciate your sound advice, because when everyone wants to sell, it can get ugly quick.
I definitely am exposed to some risk, but expect a pop before the drop, and will be lightening the load if that is what should play out. Basically I have 3 general groups of miners in the PM space:
1) Mid-tier Silver & Gold producers that have some liquidity, and I have a nice paper profit in presently. If things start turning south in a bad way, I still should be able to get out with a minimal profit to a break-even if the liquidity is too poor.
2) I have ETFs which have reasonable liquidity, and are high enough in value I can use sell-stops if I think we are getting in the neighborhood of the plunge.
3) There are some positions I have in explorers that were so sold down when I picked them up at 80-90% from their highs, that I’ll just hold onto those and weather the storm, because they are rather sparse on liquidity.
Very valid concerns though, and I may leave the party a little early if we get a nice pop and get to that exit staircase ahead of the mob 😉
2)
You r just figuring that out now
My comment was directed at bdc
No.
Gary,
You did not answer the question.
Why do you think it the fed buying the market, when in your weekend blog you said it about the sentiment and cycles, why dont you think it traders who bought this market at the low expecting the market to test it all time high
I never try to second guess the government on anything, they got us in this mess. If you’ve ever worked there you would know they don’t live in the real world so how can you expect them to make decisions on a realistic and rational basis. If you need money raise user fees, increase the VAT tax, or print more, all the while increasing the debt because your decisions only get past along to the electorate.
great points DT. How we’ve actually made it this far is surprising when you think about what an inefficient and uninformed conglomerate the government is.
You will just LOVE Africa then DT.
Come on over. Here we enjoy almost no paved roads at all. There are also no libraries, public swimming pools, city parks or properly run bus systems once you leave the capitals. But the taxes are low!
Enjoy the scenic vistas as you are whisked along a rutted road enroute to a hospital after a traffic accident. Your driver is probably the same guy who crashed into you if his car is still running. That’s because there is no 911 system in most places, no ambulances, police or firetrucks that respond to emergencies.
If you get hit by a car you get a very bumpy ride in the back of a pickup truck to the hospital. Be prepared to pay the guy generously who takes you because the trip is on his coin. Once you arrive you will get in line like everyone else regardless of the injury.
That’s the beauty of low taxes man! No pensions plans, no social services, no public universities, no welfare, no safety net and no hassles. Be sure to save money though because the day you need help you have got to cover the nut yourself. And when your money runs out so do the services and the help.
Really, I cannot believe more of you tax complainers have not come already. You won’t even pay Canadian taxes once here DT because that’s based on residency regardless of income. As an ex-pat living abroad you will never file with the CRA again as long as you don’t come back.
Just keep a good medical plan. The day they need to fly you out to Italy, Greece, Turkey or Israel for anything major that cannot be treated here (most everything serious cannot be treated properly here) you better be prepared. You know you will just need plenty of cash if you have a stroke, heart attack, need surgery or a blood transfusion,
But the taxes man! The taxes are sooooooo lowwwwwww!
Birdman – Why exactly are you there again….work?
Yes ….let’s have the full story…………..
I bet he is an African Warlord…………….. 🙂
Family reasons Shad.
My brother in law has worked in Africa as a mining engineer for almost thirty years but he also keeps a residence here just in case, he has told me stories that would make the hair on your back stand erect but he must like it because he keeps returning. DT
Actually it’s a pretty good life here DT. You really should come over one day. Beers on me.
If you wanna listen to an inspirational beacon of light who eloquently describes the U.S surveillance/prison/war state….look no further than to Pulitzer Prize winning, Presbyterian minister Chris Hedges. He knows that America is crumbling neo feudal snitch- state. His new book Wages of Rebellion: The Moral Imperative of Revolt should be a fun read:).
Dayzed and cornfuzed: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5i_H5CPRJ8
Western Lithium that I’ve been mentioning on this site for months just surged recently and was named one of the top 50 stock on the OTCQX. FWIW.
Western Lithium Named Number One on 2015 OTCQX Best 50
The November bottom, if broken, will be
760; with many pit-stops before oblivion.
Significant dollar break,
now, means 86 or lower!
Off topic: Greece:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-12/greece-effectively-defaults-imf-using-sdr-reserves-repay-fund-1-month-countdown-begi
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-12/greece-effectively-defaults-imf-using-sdr-reserves-repay-fund-1-month-countdown-begi
I was in Pireas harbor replenishing supplies a few days ago. It appears to me there is considerable unrest, with the population highly polarized (Like the US is on racial division) but Greece is polarized between the left and the right politically.
The communists have promissed more than they can deliver and the right wing cannot deliver anything but austerity and a long climb out after default.
There will be violence and destruction, alas.