Wednesday and Doctor Postma is in.
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Hi Alan—-that’s a tough one. You just saw what’s happening in the bond market although I believe that will settle down again and not take on the worse scenario. The conventional markets as we all know are long in the tooth and I’m not going to give anyone investment advice. However, having said that, I personally would stick my cash that I’m not purchasing PM stocks with in money market. Personally, I’m very strong right now in cash (80%) and 20% in stocks. Over the next few months based on technicals and fundamentals, I’ll continue to increase my stock portfolio by purchasing resource stocks. If we break out of this trading range in the conventional market to the upside, then one could add to the conventional markets since that in all likelihood would mean we have further to run in the conventional markets. A lot of the big money boys have recently moved a large amount of their cash to the sidelines so I guess I’m in good company. All I know is we’re in dangerous territory right now and there are an awful lot of moving parts—it’s often wise then to appreciate your cash until the dust settles a little.
401K = SCAM
Doc, which resource companies are you favoring right now.
Ron, Doc likes the junior-intermediate producers with low cost of production. Think Claude, Klondex. I am betting he also like Barrick as it is in a position Newmont was in a while back when Doc like Newmont. Argonaut may fit it is profile.
HOOO HOOO AL ! TOTALLY RONG THE MARKET IS TOTALLY A FAKE ! Richard your the MAN diss time !
Egon von Greyerz ! LEVERAGE of BONS ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y695HfzPv2g
Governments and Banks ! DAY HATE GOLD AND SILVER ! UP IS THE ONLY WAY BUY BUY !
Who cares if government or banks hate gold and silver! Inferiority always hates superiority. It is also true that the virtuous also looks down on vice and incompetence.
We do not buy gold and silver to make politicians and banksters happy. We do so in the service of our own goals and aspirations.
Egon Von……….usawatchdog……….today
Franky my friend, I never said that the market was not totally a fake!
OK ! AL I STILL LOVE YOU ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjATl0rm1OI
A GOOD BELGIUM BEER AL ! ORVAL ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tttWxrYcFZE
Well done Franky! It’s not all doom and gloom!
I like it when the guy says, “Let’s go and see what’s int he fridge today” and he opens it up and it’s full of beers!
I bet that what is in the fridge today will not be in the fridge by tomorrow!
Funny Silverbug Dave. I think I’ve had almost every beer shown in the fridge 🙂
The trappist Beligian ales are an interesting flavor….but can get a bit too much on the yeast. I prefer IPAs personally.
Doc, let me get this clear..?? the dollar is in a bear mkt.
Not a straight line but you don’t see a return to the highs..??
Thank you
Agatha, the dollar has more room to run to the downside—-The upside momentum indicators along with strength indicators are plunging. We will in all probability move down to the 92-93 area on the dollar index. That’s the point at which it’ll have to make a decision whether to just continue it’s move lower or whether to have a higher correction. If it corrects higher then one has to look at the technicals to ascertain whether this was just a correction in a long term bull run or whether we’re going to double top giving us a signal that the bull run in over. An inflection point will occur in the next 2 weeks. I’ll be able to give you a better idea then based on the technicals. My gut tells me we correct back up since that goes pretty much with my PM scenario which is a possible move higher now for the PMs and then a move down in June and July. I hope this helps a little. Doc.
Agreed. Good thoughts today Doc – I agree with your assessment and am thinking along the same lines.
Cory – Good points on the sector rotation from the larger investment firms to keep an eye on. Will it go emerging markets, will it go defensive dividend paying stocks, will it go into energy, will it go into commodities?
We’ll see…..maybe all of those sectors will benefit when the conventional bubble pops.
It’s hard to say exactly which sectors will get the cash flowing in but I think you could be right that the money will be spread around. Emerging markets I do not think will benefit though.
I have probably spent too long the last few weeks with some main-stream media, but there are analysts and economists betting on the emerging market funds, or specific plays like Vietnam, S. Korea, Thailand, Russia, Brazil, Mexico, etc…
If people start fleeing the conventional markets then retail investors will seek the safety plays like dividend stocks, utilities, and commodities with their tails between their legs, whimpering and shaking. So called “Smart” institutional and hedge fund players may seek commodities, energy (traditional/non-traditional) and emerging markets, because they are so under-valued at present.
Interesting points you make.
Thanks Al! You make great points every day 🙂
Tell my wife that!
Ha! Funny.
Great comments Doc! Thanks so much for your insights.
Clark, you’re welcome. I feel better about the PMs then I have in a long time and if they perform the way the technicals are suggesting for June and July, we’re okay yet. The technicals at present are showing no significant move down in the near future. I believe a lot of the PM stocks have bottomed with some still looking to bottom. We are forming a massive bottom for a lot of these stocks but it will take time for them to break out of their trading channels. When they do that, we’ll know their pointing to resumption of the PM bull market.
What if the dollar and gold move higher together and after only gold goes up ???
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gnyjpzzfpr1anih/GLD-UUP.jpg?dl=0
Great stuff Gabriel. That a “what if” that looks probable to me!
Appreciate your chart WMKF. Thanks.
Interesting chart. Hard for me to say that gold and the dollar will move in the same direction but it could happen for a little while.
Thanks Cory. Well if gold is a currency, why not ? It did in 2009 …
After all the Maestro said it is a currency.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-07/greenspans-stunning-admission-gold-currency-no-fiat-currency-including-dollar-can-ma
Good post with Alan Greenspan discussing Gold as the most important currency on the planet.
Of course He is speaking to the Council on Foreign Relations (aka the snake-pit).
Thanks Shad. If you have time you can read what Greenspan wrote in 1966 …
http://www.321gold.com/fed/greenspan/1966.html
Thank you Gabriel. Yes I have seen snippets of this article referenced before, and did read Ayn Rand’s Capitalism and didn’t realize it was Greenspan article at the time.
Much appreciated, as I cut & pasted it into a Word doc to hand out to a few PM haters that seem to be infatuated with Greenspan. Good frame of reference.
I am embarrassed to say that I am just getting down and reading Atlas Shrugged. What a great book!
I have a friend that co-authored one of the Chicken Soup for the soul books based around Entrepreneurialism. He interviewed about 200 of the most successful minds, owners of companies, and leaders in many fields in the late 90’s and discovered that Ayn Rand’s Atlas Shrugged was the #1 most cited book on everyone’s list as the one that had the most influence on them.
It’s the archetypes and economics interwoven that are so transformative.
I thought that was a very interesting commentary from Mr. Greenspan.
“So you think that money is the root of all evil? … Have you ever asked what is the root of money? Money is a tool of exchange, which can’t exist unless there are goods produced and men able to produce them. Money is the material shape of the principle that men who wish to deal with one another must deal by trade and give value for value. Money is not the tool of the moochers, who claim your product by tears, or the looters who take it from you by force. Money is made possible only by the men who produce. Is this what you consider evil? … Not an ocean of tears nor all the guns in the world can transform those pieces of paper in your wallet into bread you need to survive tomorrow. … Whenever destroyers appear among men, they start by destroying money, for money is men’s protection and the base of a moral existence. Destroyers seize gold and leave its owners a counterfeit pile of paper. This kills all objective standards and delivers men into the arbitrary power of an arbitrary setter of values … Paper is a mortgage on wealth that does not exist, backed by a gun aimed at those who are expected to produce it. Paper is a check drawn by legal looters upon an account which is not theirs: upon the virtue of the victims. Watch for the day when it bounces”
I think that biblical line is more often misquoted than quoted correctly:
It is the LOVE of money that is the root of all evil. So it is the greed and need for power, not the pieces of paper with dead presidents in your pocket.
also remember that LOVE spelled backwards is EVOL. 🙂
good one……….
I agree w/all of Doc’s comments, except that I’m not going long anything in the PM sector yet.
I think that $1000 gold might still be on the table.
And we don’t really have a breakout yet, not on weekly/monthly charts.
Short term, I think that the US dollar will pop soon – like tomorrow or Friday – but I’m keeping an eye on GDX because it just might start to impulse out of here. The current pattern is akin to a wet noodle blowing in the wind, so I’m staying out until I see a firm trend.
Hi Doc!
What do you think about Asm, Avino silver & gold mines?
http://www.avino.com/s/news.asp?ReportID=707424
Blue – Glad you posted that link. I totally left Avino Silver and Gold off my silver miners list. It looks like things are moving right along for them and that was a good 1st quarter report.
Bill, that’s not a bad position to be in—-GDX continues to trade in a range on the weekly and I personally feel that isn’t going to change anytime soon and in fact, as stated many times, I feel GDX will eventually trend lower as we move into summer. Also, it’s been mentioned since October of last year that there is no hurry to get into a lot of these stocks except for the ones actually producing and exploring with good cash flows.
Financial Sense update: Biggest Inflection Point for 2015 Happening Right Now
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/biggest-inflection-point-2015-update
Best to all and GL investing/trading
LPG
Aren’t gold companies in the conventional market?
Yes, why do you ask, Tom?
You said that you wouldn’t be in the conventional market at the 6:00 mark….but you say you are purchasing securities on the dips?
I guess I have to be more specific—-what I mean is that I would generally not be in most of the conventional market sectors excepting selective resource stocks. The securities purchased on the dip are mostly precious metal stocks.
Dosn’t a low tide sink all ships?
Wow, maybe we got a ..good Pope?
( I know Franky, I know.. )
Pieces of paper with dead politicians on them are not money because they have no intrinsic value. Instead they are un backed currency. Money has all the attributes of currency plus it is a store of value and has intrinsic value by virtue of being composed of the monetary metals like gold and silver. It is atoms of gold or silver that give value to a means of exchange and make it a store of value. Any other way and you have a variation on Parker Brother’s Monopoly currency. Pretty but worthless.
Rising bond yields traders may be on wrong side of a bond trade. Somehow Jim Wyckoff now says this is bullish for gold because hints at inflation!
How long have people been telling us that rising interest rates are going to be bad for gold?
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Technically-Speaking/981/2015-05-13/Golds-Surge-Above-$1200-More-Than-Bad-Data—Wyckoff
I’ve been saying for years here at KER that rising interest rates will be good for gold. Jim Wyckoff is absolutely correct.
Yes, I remember your charts posted in the past that shows that when rates to start to rise that gold tends to do well based on the concerns around inflation.
There is of course the points where when rates raise too high that gold gets put in the penalty box for not generating yields. That doesn’t seem likely to happen anytime soon though : – )
Gold is up again Thursday (Ascension Day) but it has made it to 1223/1224 yet again. This is the high of year 2009. So gold has a zero return in 5 and a half years and bullish sentiment is appearing again today on Kitco.
Yet the Dow would have to reach 52,000 just to catch up to gold since 2001.
SBDave,
I doubt gold will close above 1223. And that puts it right back in bear mode.
Which is what I’m hoping happens. Bring on the wash…!
It closed at 1225.20 in regular hours then 1220.90 in after hours.
Doc,
What is your thought on Xon as I remember you compared it with Apple of biotech? Why it is going down after earning?
Hi Doc,
Thanks always for the advice. Where does somone park money in a 401K. 1% money market or international. Sounds like the US market is a house of cards.
Thanks