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Wednesday with Rick Ackerman

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108 Comments
    May 13, 2015 13:17 PM

    Retail sales soft………..Wonder if that will have any bearing on retail rents , maybe those retail closing we spoke about a week ago might continue, as we discussed on Gary’s report. 🙂

    May 13, 2015 13:21 PM

    Remember $810

      May 13, 2015 13:47 PM

      yes, I do

    May 13, 2015 13:23 PM

    If you trade gold, you might want to check out my site, http://www.rickackerman.com. A free two-week trial is offered there. Below is a day-trade in gold from today that produced a gain of as much as $2300 per contract using an initial stop-loss that implied $280 of initial risk.

    From Wednesday’s list of actionable touts (published late last night but updated this morning):

    Monday’s rally was not gold’s finest hour, having failed to get past some obvious but not especially daunting external peaks to the left of it. That said, the pullback was shallow enough to look like a promising consolidation for a push to as high as 1203.90. As always, it will take an easy move through the midpoint pivot at 1195.60 to make the target an even-odds bet. If you’re looking for an easy, albeit relatively risky, mechanical entry, bid for a single contract at 1195.60, stop 1192.80, once p has been exceeded by $3 or so. The alternative would be a ‘camouflage’ entry on the 5-mnute chart or less once p has been decisively exceeded. ______ UPDATE (10:09 a.m. EDT): The mechanical trade suggested above worked beautifully and simply. At around 7:25 a.m., a rally to 1197.80 fulfilled the first criterion; then, a pullback t0 1194.20 fulfilled the second. The low never even got close to the 1192.80 stop-loss I’d suggested. The futures have since shot up to a so-far high of 1214.60, generating a gain of as much as $1,900 per contract in under two hours. Take profits at will if you got aboard.

    May 13, 2015 13:23 PM

    Remember 9/11

      May 13, 2015 13:48 PM

      I watched a fascinating tv show that morning. Some people say that it was a fake. What do you think?

        May 13, 2015 13:23 PM

        Was 9/11 a fake?…. I think , from what I read and what I saw on that day, ….I remember , at the exact moment , I was watching the Stock report CNBC,with Mark Haynes, when the events were unfolding….The WTC was in clear view behind the set of Mark Haynes, and he was discussing the action at that time…..What I remember was thinking…When the buildings started to collapse, My immediate thoughts were “NO WAY” …that was a controlled implosion . I say that because one of my friends was in the BUILDING DEMOLITION BUSINESS, and he use to discuss how they took down buildings , showing me actual pictures and processes. And that looked exactly like pictures of what he showed me and the description was exactly the same. The plane did not cause the building to go down. I think
        the sprinkler system in the building would have controlled some of the fire.but that is another side distraction.
        There is way to much evidence of it being planned, From who owned the building, the insurance claims….on, and on I could go. Conspiracy theory….As Jessie Ventura says………A conspiracy only takes TWO people ….

          May 13, 2015 13:32 PM

          On a truly serious note, that was a very, very interesting situation. Will we ever know?

            May 14, 2015 14:47 AM

            I believe once the 28 pages of the NIST report classified by President Bush are declassified people will think a lot differently about 911.

            May 14, 2015 14:43 AM

            should be rule out.
            My laptop jumps around probably should get a new one.

          May 13, 2015 13:22 PM

          As a newspaper reporter covering the demolition of the Traymore Hotel in Atlantic City in the early 1970s, I developed a good rapport with the late John Loizeaux, the man who pioneered controlled demolition and who knew more about the subject than anyone else in the world. At the time, his was the only company doing implosion demolitions that wasn’t blowing out windows in a 5-block radius and cracking the foundations of surrounding buildings. His insurance rates depended on his ability to do what he did better than would-be competitors. John’s company, CDI, was the first phone call I made when I saw the Towers come down on 9/11. Based on what my contacts at CDI told me — John had died a year earlier –, I am firmly convinced that anyone who believes the Towers were taken down by controlled charges is flat-out wrong. They might as well be arguing that the recent earthquakes in Tibet were caused by Chinese saboteurs.

            May 14, 2015 14:46 AM

            HA HA, good one …DEAD MEN TELL NO LIES.

            May 14, 2015 14:31 AM

            Rick :
            Good points on the towers,Bldg 5, Bldg 7, …..
            The question is not weather buildings collapsed rather who financed the 15 Saudi hijackers while they were in the U S.
            Retired Senator Bob Graham will tell you.
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V4eNKp-5bQA

            May 14, 2015 14:05 AM

            John was not my source. There were others in the company who had as much as 30 years’ experience by 9/11.

            May 14, 2015 14:28 AM

            Rick:
            I have experience trucking flamables. I also have also seen the aftermath of 50,000 lbs of crude oil ignited.
            The specific gravity of crude oil is not that much different than jet fuel.So based on that I compared the my past experiences with the aftermath of those poor bastards that crashed. The steel of the frame, the engine and the hubs of the wheels did not melt or even distort. Your assumption that explosives were not used is correct in my honest opinion, but I would not rule something else was used.

            May 14, 2015 14:09 AM

            Maybe the Chinese and Russian are experimenting on the Tibet Mountains ,before they try the Nuke underground in California…….Maybe, Jebb B. could use that excuse of WMD to take us to war with the Russians……. OOTB……….

            May 14, 2015 14:10 AM

            tHE RICK TOR SCALE , would go off the Chart…………. 🙂

            May 14, 2015 14:07 AM

            I wouldn’t rule it out Frank. China would like to give Tibet the Boot.

            May 14, 2015 14:14 AM

            is that like TI BOOT

            May 14, 2015 14:33 AM

            Some great views of implosions at VEGAS . COM…..

            May 14, 2015 14:35 AM

            Since you mentioned implosion experience of 30 years , is that before 1971? If so I thought they were using wrecking BALLS before 71……just asking……….THE BOOT

            May 14, 2015 14:50 AM

            records show implosions have been around for awhile……30,40,50,s and dates back even earlier…..so, ball em, and implode em……..Dynamite Frank.

        May 13, 2015 13:20 PM

        What do you think about the moon landing in 1968, was the technology really there, I bet you don’t want to touch that one?

    May 13, 2015 13:47 PM

    Al- Savage

    Last week you were telling Gary that the U.S. was in a “Depression” and today you are talking about general U S equity exposure as being a good place to be?

      May 13, 2015 13:52 PM

      We are in a very precarious situation economically, no question about it.

      That is the simple reason that I think the “new style conventional market” is an okay place to be for at least awhile.

        May 13, 2015 13:54 PM

        To elaborate, the can must continued to be kicked down the road. The only choice is absolute disaster.

    May 13, 2015 13:35 PM

    GOOD CLOSE OUT FOR THE DAY…………..GOLD UP 23…..DOW DOWN 17

      May 13, 2015 13:47 PM

      correction dow down 7

      May 13, 2015 13:29 PM

      Common Frank, you continue to focus on the negative. Don’t you care about the U S of A?

    May 13, 2015 13:44 PM

    OFF TOPIC………NEW SICK WORLD…………..WE ARE DOWN TO ………..ONE MALE WHITE RHINO remaining in the world.
    aol news. the rhino is under 24 hour guard.

      May 13, 2015 13:20 PM

      Your sarcasm makes me sick, Frank. Rhinos are very important. And I would bet that there is more than one white “Republican in Name Only” left in the world. STOP SPREADING UNTRUE RUMORS!

      May 14, 2015 14:54 AM

      AOL? …..seriously…are they still in business?

        May 14, 2015 14:54 AM

        Just kidding around of course.

        May 14, 2015 14:52 AM

        I still have a hotmail.com email address, that I got when I ditched AOL back in the late 90’s.

          May 14, 2015 14:16 AM

          I still have a free AOL account……..good things never change……….. 🙂

    May 13, 2015 13:23 PM

    Al, if QE were still in force, I’d agree the S&P would rise. But it’s over – so the major source of fuel that caused all the buying the last 4 yrs is over – done – kaput. So I think we’re on after-fumes here, going sideways, until one of the HF’s decides to sell.

    “Sell in May, go away” – seems like time is ripe to sell right here/now. Hasn’t happened yet, but w/out fresh buyers w/new money, prices can’t go up.

      May 13, 2015 13:37 PM

      We will know in a very few (notice I said very few) years!

        May 13, 2015 13:52 PM

        I don’t understand why you are bullish on the stock market, because I thought you were in the camp that it was all propped up and fake?

        What I”m saying is that the propping up was 100% money printed by the Fed/Treasury, and loaned to the banks, who then put it in the market – and this money is now all GONE. QE is over. “The Fed Has Your Back” doesn’t apply anymore, not w/out QE.

        One last thought – I”m no history expert, but I recall someone saying that in 1929 when the market crashed, it later then started to inflate, and it was that 2nd crash that was devastating. To me, we’re in that 2nd rise right here/now.

        But you’re right, we’ll see.

    May 13, 2015 13:52 PM

    Bearish last week now backing the market this week.

    LPG
    May 13, 2015 13:48 PM

    Re-posting the below as I believe it is worth reading:

    *********

    Financial Sense update: Biggest Inflection Point for 2015 Happening Right Now

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/biggest-inflection-point-2015-update

    Best to all and GL investing/trading

    LPG

      May 13, 2015 13:01 PM

      US has failed to induce a capital flight from China. Otherwise it could get a lot higher.

        May 13, 2015 13:25 PM

        The opposite is true. China has been selling Treasurys to sterilize its own stimulus efforts.

          May 14, 2015 14:24 AM

          Surprised you don’t know this. You don’t read articles from China. This is the second time US trying to do this. It failed in 1997 and stopped in Hong Kong. Why did Chinese stock market suddenly rise

            May 14, 2015 14:49 AM

            US had great success during 1980s and it resulted in collapse of South America and severely hurted Europe and Japan.

          May 14, 2015 14:52 AM

          If you can or you know someone who read Chinese, you can read the talks by Chinese strategist general qiao Liang 乔良. He calls this fleece the sheep. US first floods the world with US dollar loan. Then it generates capital flight using financial and military wars plus tighter monetary policy. The result is the collapse of the economies of others and consolidation of US dollar as world reserve currency. General qiao has adviced Chinese top circle to adopt several policies many years ago to prevent capital flight from happening.

            May 14, 2015 14:01 AM

            Yeah, there’s no effort at propaganda over there either, Lawrence. You really think the Chinese leadership is going to take the blame for blowing the worlds biggest credit bubble?

            Not on your life, man!

            They are already spinning a narrative in advance of trouble about how those Yankee manipulators are trying to rule the world through dollar dominance. That will no doubt sell well inside China and deflect attention elsewhere once the landing comes. And it will probably work…. for awhile anyway.

            But don’t forget Lawrence there is a lot more to this story than the spin put on it by others. Had there really been concerns within the Chinese leadership they would have instituted policies long ago to reduce the very risk they now complain is being imposed on them.

            Too funny…you are really saying indirectly that the Party is claiming the Fed and US Government manipulate the world through policy tools and everyone over there is just too dumb to catch on until its too late!

            I doubt that. Every major country on earth is working from the exact same policy book these days. That’s why there are G20 meetings and gatherings of the worlds finance ministers as just two examples. Those are designed to coordinate global macro agendas so there ARE NO surprises.

            It’s just the man on the street who does not know. He gets fed the propaganda.

            May 14, 2015 14:15 AM

            There are something Chinese government face that could not be delayed without some stupid policies. They are as self-serving as US government. However, they seems to be able to defend themselves from US financial wars several times. All the preventive measures have taken effect, one being building massive reserve. How many times people called it stupid. Other countries are defenceless in comparison. Only exception was Germany in 1980s by refusing to devalue German mark. It was documented that US put tremendous pressure on Germany to make the dollar strong and Europe currencies weak.

            May 14, 2015 14:59 AM

            Symbiotic relationships rarely devolve into destructive conflicts Lawrence because each depends upon the other reciprocally for their nourishment or some other benefit that assures survival or success.

            That is a primer for you on why you and everyone else who keeps reading doom and hazard into the US / China relationship is going to be wrong because at the core there is far more cooperation that conflict.

            As long as balance prevails both should prosper at the best of times and neither should suffer unduly during difficult periods. It is poppycock to presume the US is attacking China with financial tools when to do so would be destructive for both.

            May 14, 2015 14:07 AM

            HMM… Just look at what happening in Russia. US will cooperate only it does not threaten US world dominance

      May 13, 2015 13:07 PM

      Thanks GPL 😉 that was worthwhile.

        LPG
        May 14, 2015 14:16 AM

        Most welcome WMK.
        Hermon Kordun rulz ! 🙂
        Best to you & hope all’s well,
        LPG

      May 14, 2015 14:51 AM

      Oops, didn’t see that you had posted that already LPG…and then I posted it again.

        LPG
        May 14, 2015 14:17 AM

        It’s all good Birdman.
        Best to you,
        LPG

      May 14, 2015 14:26 AM

      Good article LPG. Thanks for posting it.

        LPG
        May 14, 2015 14:17 AM

        Most welcome Shad.
        Best to you,
        LPG

    CFS
    May 14, 2015 14:47 AM

    I am hearing rumors of China intending to further stimulate its economy by building substantial infrastructure to improve trade with Pakistan…….About $40-50 billion.

    This appears to be part of its “silk” road re-creation, but aimed first at its trading partner Pakistan.

    This will require significant purchase of Copper and steel (for electricity transmission and concrete re-inforcement and also concrete and energy.

    This would also explain China’s recent investments in Copper companies (e.g. as reported bny Rick Rule) .

      May 14, 2015 14:14 AM

      zerohedge was saying the same……. ffm

      May 14, 2015 14:37 AM

      It is not rumour. It is the policy to move west to middle east, Africa and Russia. It is so called silk road project and euro Asia africa trading zone idea. China calls it one road and one zone policy. It was formed with the idea of several strategist including general qiao

    May 14, 2015 14:50 AM

    Here is an article from one of the few guys who gets what is taking place right now. It is from Chris Puplava and its worth a read for the doubters in the crowd who don’t see the significance of the abrupt reversal in the US dollar. Chris sees it falling for several months partly based on the number of longs that might still unwind positions. Certainly once it falls below the 200 day there will be a different outlook from most traders that exists at this moment when the majority still believe the dollar is going to stage a rebound…..too bad for them. There is no rebound coming, just losses for hanging on to the wrong thesis.

    Biggest Inflection Point for 2015 Happening Right Now – The reflation trade — Chris Puplava
    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/chris-puplava/biggest-inflection-point-2015-update

      May 14, 2015 14:05 AM

      Chris is still wet behind the ears………but, I agree that the dollar is going to have trouble getting above 107……or maybe 99…….. the boot.

        May 14, 2015 14:25 AM

        I agree that there will be a long-short knife fight at 99-100, but the USD should break on through to the other side….. How high? who knows but I threw out a 110 target back in March before it was cool. Well just have to see.

        May 14, 2015 14:04 AM

        I doubt that Frank.

    May 14, 2015 14:09 AM

    The miners just broke the downtrend line that began in August.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GDM&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p79258978445&a=406400204&listNum=1

      May 14, 2015 14:21 AM

      You know what that means……

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zzxHx-mOqRI

        May 14, 2015 14:50 AM

        or Do not let the DOORS hit you in the arce on the way out…….. 🙂

          May 14, 2015 14:56 AM

          I’m just hopin’ the Doors don’t get slammed in my face with the positions I have on. Until then I’ll just keep Riding the Storm!

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS-af9Q-zvQ

            May 14, 2015 14:00 AM

            I kind of like……..”These boots are made for walking”…Nancy Sinatra 1967

            May 14, 2015 14:08 AM

            Of Course……good one Frank……The Boot.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbyAZQ45uww

            May 14, 2015 14:07 AM

            Check your daily chart Shad. Gold is pretty close to topping out so this is no bounce to write home about. It will however draw in a whole lot of new longs to help power up the next declines though. 🙂

            I just love the smell of gold longs in a smoking heap in the morning!

            May 14, 2015 14:45 AM

            Birdman – I completely agree, and stated yesterday I was very cautious on this breakout a few times, and thought it would be short-lived, draw in the bulls, and then start the decline down into summer duldrums.

            May 14, 2015 14:01 AM

            Might have missed that post of yours Shad. I have not been present much due to health problems right now. Got to go for tests or something.

            May 14, 2015 14:35 AM

            Sorry to hear that you’re still in sick bay Birdman. I noticed you haven’t been around as much. Well here are few posts from this week where I am excited about the pop up, but expect to be short lived and reverse soon, similar to the outlook Doc shared today on that editorial.

            On May 12, 2015 at 12:01 pm,
            Shad says:

            I completely agree Gary, and think when the dollar does start its climb up higher that it will start to pressure the precious metals at that time.

            My expectation is still for the washout in PMs over the next few few months along with the commodities, but think we need a little more bullishness before that will start. I am just looking at the short term to see if Gold and in particular the miners have a little more steam left. Also, if/when we get that sentiment washout later this year, I’ll be getting the most bullish when I see people throwing in the towel, and when sentiment gets its most bearish towards PMs.

            I am keeping a position in PMs that I started building positions in basket of miners & explorers last year and overall the the basket of stocks and ETFS is profitable or at an break-even presently. Also, I’ve had a great time playing GDXJ to upside and the downside using (JNUG) and (JDST) irregardless of the spot price.

            I haven’t lost site of the fact that we haven’t disproved that November was the lows in gold and the miners yet, so we still could be in a stealth bull market and not even realize it. I’m not really married to a bullish position, and if it looks like the washout is coming on hard, then I’ll obviously trim positions or sell most positions and get out of the way of the falling knives.

            On May 12, 2015 at 12:08 pm,
            Shad says:

            If we do see further dollar weakness down to 92 that may give a little life to a further rise in commodities for a short bit. If the dollar gets down there, then I’ll start taking profits in a number of commodity-related plays.

            On May 12, 2015 at 10:41 am,
            Shad says:

            Well please know that I was actually being serious and meant it. Sometimes the very smartest strategy of them all is sitting on the sidelines when you don’t have a good trend established in a sector or stock. When there are people that have opinions you respect, like Gary Savage, (whom I also respect a great deal), that have technical reasons to be cautious with the metals, then all the more reason to be cautious.

            On May 12, 2015 at 12:38 pm,
            Shad says:

            Agreed, and that is why I personally haven’t completely gone to the sideline. I am prepared to get out of the way quickly if the washout comes, but if November was the low, then other investors have missed positioning themselves for the uptrend.
            I’m 40% in and 60% out for my precious metals allocations, but may trim a few positions if we get a little breakout back to 30/70 or 25/75.

            On May 12, 2015 at 2:32 pm,
            Shad says:

            I tend to agree WMK that we may get the upside before June. The breakout in PM miners should be in the relatively near future.
            My concern is that if the PMs and miners get a little rally, and this get people bullish for the next 2 weeks, that this may be the point from where we start getting a temporary top. If there is a corresponding downturn afterwards then, I’m more worried for that kind of dip going into June/July.

            On May 13, 2015 at 9:40 am,
            Shad says:

            …..and we got our breakout today. Dollar down to $93.52 (closing in on the $92 level).

            Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) -NYSEArca
            26.65 Up 0.77(2.98%) 12:18PM EDT – Just took out key resistance at $26.57
            PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF (SILJ) -NYSEArca
            8.03 Up 0.28(3.59%) 11:47AM EDT – JR Silver Miners outperforming Jr Gold miners

            Right on schedule.

            On May 13, 2015 at 9:34 am,
            Shad says:

            I am not implying this is the major bottom, just the PM price pop that was expected, and that the silver miners would out-perform the gold miners on legs up and on dips down.”

            I’ll be watching for the dollar to get down around $92 and the Bond market long term yields will level off and start reversing. That’s when I’ll sell into the strength on the PM pop. (next week?)

            On May 13, 2015 at 10:48 am,
            Shad says:

            I’ll be selling in May if we get a little more upside in the miners over the next week or so, but want to see if this has any legs first.

            Personally, I still am waiting for the summer washout to hit but this won’t start until oil gets up a little higher ($64-$66) and then turns down, and the US dollar gets down near 92, and bond market sorts it’s identity out but starts to have lower yields again touching all time lows.

          May 14, 2015 14:25 AM

          Frank

          A different version:

          “Don’t let the door hit you, where the good lord split you”

            May 14, 2015 14:30 AM

            good one……..I like that one………… 🙂

            May 14, 2015 14:35 AM

            😉

      May 14, 2015 14:56 PM

      Click on that chart again. The bears were able to stuff the price down for a close below the downtrend line resistance.

    May 14, 2015 14:07 AM

    Did the Dow just get a bump on the weekly jobs number, ?

      May 14, 2015 14:10 AM

      The general markets are looking for any excuse to rise today. Everything is strong in the US economy again…..crisis averted.

      May 14, 2015 14:25 AM

      Shad:
      Not long ago we were discussing rare earths and I told Doc to keep an eye on Geomega.
      Of course I didn’t . Another easy double missed.
      To many stocks,not enough time.

        May 14, 2015 14:47 AM

        Agreed John K. There are too many stocks to follow. I created want/watch lists for each sector (Gold producers, Gold explorers, Silver Producers, Silver explorers, PGM producters & explorers, Uranium miners, Lithium Miners & explorers, Rare Earth Miners and explorers…..) I didn’t even have Geomega on my Rare Earth list, so I must be out of the loop 🙂

      CFS
      May 14, 2015 14:02 AM

      SMT just increased resource 43-101

    May 14, 2015 14:22 AM

    Another small silver producer I forgot to mention yesterday, Excellon just posted their 1st quarter results as well. It looks like they had a little more of a struggle this quarter and year over year, but they’re hanging in there.

    http://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/506-tsx/exn/7093-excellon-reports-first-quarter-2015-financial-results.htmlhttp://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/506-tsx/exn/7093-excellon-reports-first-quarter-2015-financial-results.html#.VVS89fldV8E

      CFS
      May 14, 2015 14:59 AM

      I have Mandalay as one of my top miners:

      P/E about 15 and dividend more than 5%…….not many beat that!

        May 14, 2015 14:23 AM

        Yes, thanks CFS. I started following Mandalay Resources based on your recommendation and was impressed. I also noticed that it is the #1 most undervalued on Bill Matlack’s list of major and mid-tier silver producers:

        http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2015-05-13/Metals-Mining-Analysts-Ratings-Estimates-Seniors.html

        good stuff!

          May 14, 2015 14:27 AM

          I admit to reading that list every week !

            May 14, 2015 14:37 AM

            Its a pretty good list. He leaves companies off that should be on and covers ones that seem odd, but overall it is a nice snapshot (both the senior and jr list).

    May 14, 2015 14:35 AM

    1228 good sign…………….

    May 14, 2015 14:44 AM