Is the US dollar bottoming earlier than expected today?
Gary wants to chat about the action in the dollar today. As the dollar was down early it was reversing when we recorded. Will it close in positive territory or continue its move down as most people expected earlier this week?
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We are pretty much thinking this Fall.
Jason
Always a pleasure to read your comments,
as I sometimes get INTERESTING (yet disturbing) visual images:
“Holding a bag on a bear”
“Getting my nuggets crushed”
Keep up the good work !
Common Brian,
There are kids who visit this site!
“Holding a bag on a bear”?
“Getting my nuggets crushed”?
I am going to have to go to Confession for having this stuff on a site that I am a part of!
Quite innocent, really … I visualized a Macy’s bag and Chicken McNuggets. 😉
funny Brian. I was stating the same thing to Jason on the Rick A. blog today. He cracks me up with his brief and panicked or overly celebratory posts.
Doc – I have another near term producing Gold stock for you to check out that I’ve mentioned in the past that has a similar set up as Golden Queen (I didn’t hear back from you on that one on Monday or Tuesday, but Matthew said he is on the case)
The one for today is Torex Gold. One of John Doody’s top 10 picks featured prominently at the GSA investor day in February, and is a near term producer with about 50% of the mine completed. Here is a link to their Q1 wrap up:
Here’s a re-post of the questions from Monday & Tuesday to you on Golden Queen, and further discussion with WMK and I:
On May 12, 2015 at 2:42 pm,
Shad says:
Here is a press release for Golden Queen – a small gold company getting ready to go into production this year. I have high hopes for them as a potential takeover target in 2016. For 2015, once they get up and producing by Q3 and Q4 and can prove up their numbers they should start receiving more attention:
WMK – Are you familiar with Golden Queen? Any Thoughts?
DOC – based on your comments yesterday about checking out smaller companies getting ready to go into production, I’d enjoy hearing your thoughts on Gold Queen (GQMNF) is the US OTC.
On May 12, 2015 at 3:54 pm,
wocsom morf knarF says:
I do not know Golden Queen well, but I like what I saw at a glance. Can you provide any nuggets that aren’t in their presentation?
On May 12, 2015 at 4:31 pm,
Shad says:
Golden Queen has a full Feasibility Study, they are fully financed already, and going into production in a safe jurisdiction this year.
John Doody has Golden Queen as one of his Top 10 picks for the year, and featured them prominently at the Feb 22nd GSA (Gold Stock Analyst) day this year.
Garrett Goggin Associate Editor, Gold Stock Analyst- also was the first to bring to my attention that Golden Queen was only spending enough capex to prove up the reserves they are going to mine for the next 6-12 months at time to conserve cost, which seemed like a unique approach. This also means they have much bigger reserves than what they’ve put out in their Feasibility Study as they didn’t spend 5 years and burn through all their money proving up reserves that they won’t touch for 5 years. Instead they streamlined the process, got the money raised, are mostly done with construction, and they’ll be producing in the next few months.
I’ve heard a little buzz about them lately on a few sites, and see them as one of the few Jr Miners about to get some new growth going again (like Romarco and Torex Gold, and Bear Creek Silver).
I just respect your analysis and views on Jr Miners that are becoming small producers.
On May 12, 2015 at 4:34 pm,
wocsom morf knarF says:
Thanks a lot Shad, I’m definitely going to take a closer look.
On May 12, 2015 at 4:35 pm,
Shad says:
Golden Queen (GQMNF): First Quarter 2015 Highlights
Golden Queen’s consolidated and non-consolidated cash positions were $64.5 million and $4.6 million, respectively, as at March 31, 2015;
The workshop-warehouse was fully equipped with the necessary lubrication equipment, compressor, workbenches and a waste oil storage tank in February.
Work on four (4) offices constructed on the floor above the warehouse was completed in March;
The Hilfiker wall, a key component of the crushing-screening plant, was completed in February;
The construction of the assay laboratory was completed in March and the laboratory equipment was purchased and is being installed;
Preparation of the Phase 1, Stage 1 heap leach pad was initiated in early 2015 and site grading was completed in March;
Basic construction of the pump box was completed in March;
Construction of the site-wide power distribution system and water supply infrastructure is well under-way;
Pre-production mining commenced in late March 2015; and,
The Company announced a change in its mineral resource and mineral reserve estimates, and filed an updated feasibility study and NI 43-101 Technical Report with the regulatory authorities on February 27, 2015.
DOC – Lastly, I threw a little more fuel on the fire for Primero (PPP) at the bottom of this blog and your blog with Chris from Thursday.
Gary, I still don’t get why the rising Europe market would cause the US market to also rise?
Also, now that it’s close to end of day, what are your thoughts now on the dollar? Is the reversal holding into the close in your opinion?
Thanks.
I get that the Europe QE is fuel to cause Europe’s markets to rise, but the US QE is over, so I just don’t know where the new cash would come from. Who is buying? The US HF’s are already all in, I’d think. Someone has to buy for price to rise, my wee little brain thinks. Thanks!
Not positive so hard to say. If it forms a swing tomorrow then maybe we have a bottom.
Can someone tell me what “being on chill” means.
Apparently, Gold Canyon is on chill.
I can only tell you what “being on chilli” is like. sorry…. 🙂
Thanks Shad, I needed that!
Thats…. Too Funny!!!
🙂
Wait minute …
…. are you sending a secret signal to buy or sell signal natural gas?
Yes it was about the sector rotation out of beans and into gas…..
Shad ~ I played that clip and it woke up my dog. ~ Brian
Ha! Blazing Saddles….it’s a classic.
I have absolutely no idea what it means.”Being on Chill”
I have not heard that term before.
Good interview Cory & Gary. I tend to agree with Gary on the majority of his thoughts, but don’t know if the dollar bottomed today. It still may fall a little further IMO.
thanks
The dollar is going to recover…..then fall, ….then rise……then fall…..then rise….then fall…..then rise…………..THEN CRASH.
yep. you nailed it Frankjerstein 😉
🙂
It is really great to have a contributors who has made up his/her mind for sure!
+1 🙂
Gary,
You was calling for the euro to test 120 as well a couple months ago
120 is the maximum the euro could rally, but no guarantee it will get there. The cycle is running out of time so it’s looking pretty unlikely the euro is going to make it all the way to 120.
Two or three years to break over 1.20 Gary? That’s a pretty bold statement.
very bold statement.
Gary:
At about 2:58 on the tape, you talk about tomorrow and then mention Friday also. I guess I thought today was Thursday or is this being recorded on Wednesday.
Please clarify.
My mistake. If we get a swing tomorrow and follow through on Monday then i would be inclined to call the bottom in the dollar/top in the euro.
What if we headed down one more day in the dollar tomorrow going into the weekend?
For example – The US Dollar is now $93.30 and falling, so it appears it is stretching for the low today or maybe the beginning of next week. I guess if the greenback can get into the 92-93 range before it turns, then that’s pretty darn close on the call for 92 I made back in April.
What would that mean for natural gas and oil?
Oil would get pressured more than Natural Gas by a rebounding dollar.
LPG posted a great article about how Oil can actually move the dollar market too.
Worth a quick read and interesting charts:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/how-saudi-arabia-sets-global-currency-markets
Nat gas is still early in a new intermediate cycle. That one should at least make it to 3.40 before amore significant correction. Oil is too late in its cycle. If you didn’t get in months ago then you already missed the boat on that one. Focus in nat gas right now and wait on oil.
Wouldn’t natural gas – like any energy commodity – head down along with oil with any USD rally?
Not necessarily. Nat gas dances to its own drummer.
thanks
HI Gary,
$1223 is big resistance in gold. However, when Gary implies that gold has rallied as the dollar has weakened, it hasn’t. Gold was doing better on the strong dollar than on this recent pullback in the dollar. During the dollar pullback gold has been weak in all currencies. It is very near the lows in UK Pounds for example and has been pulling back in Euros too.
The whole US dollar:gold inverse relationship is hardly in force right now.
+1
+2
Agreed, Silverbug!
I like Gary’s comments om the stock markets. Seems like the Euro stock markets are acting a bit like the US markets did with QE1 and QE2, going up when the currency is weak. The US market has moved on to a different phase.
Some thoughts from master Ray:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/ray-dalio-if-you-dont-own-gold-you-either-dont-know-history-or-economics
Best to all,
LPG
The truth is that with this artificial bull market, we have really seen a drop in production which is signaled by a lower oil price, this is really a major change in the national economy. Gary’s cycles don’t always work in an environment such as this. DT
As Gary emphatically told me last week, “In this environment, economic strength or weakness has nothing to do with market performance.”
Important comment.
So you think that The Federal Reserve will be able to prevent a money panic if the banks start toppling. DT
Not sure how you understood this Al… but I was surprised you weren’t aware of this.
We’ll have a talk about this at some point.
Best as always,
LPG
Hey, guys; tell me what you think of Primero (PPP). As mentioned on Rick’s thread, the fundamentals and technicals seem to be aligning.
Let me look at it Richard…
🙂 🙂 🙂
LPG
Here’s what I just wrote below Rick’s interview:
Primero Mining is a great company with superb management. Those who were critical of the Brigus Gold acquisition will be proven wrong.
It’s P&F price objective of 9.75 is just for starters, in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=P.TO,PWTADANRBO%5BPA%5D%5BD%5D%5BF1!3!!!2!20]
Agreed WMK. I was a fan of the Brigus Gold acquisition, and that was a wise pickup for the Primero asset base moving forward.
WE NEED A WMK DAY………along with I had a dream…MLK DAY….
Good one!
Hey Doc – Here’s what I responded to that question in Rick’s editorial about Primero.
I like Primero Doc. They’ve been getting more attention as of late, and several of the gold stock ETFs adjusted the weighting up in Primero over the last 2 years.
In GDXJ:
Primero Mining Corp PPP US 9,814,000 41,120,660 2.37%
In GDX:
Primero Mining Corp PPP US 11,207,276 46,958,486 0.72%
In the Sprott Fund SGDM:
PRIMERO MINING CORP PPP 2.42%
In the Sprott Fund SGDJ:
PRIMERO MINING CORP PPP 4.09%
Here’s a recent article of note from Zack’s on Primero:
Will Primero Mining (PPP) Continue to Surge Higher?
by Zacks Equity Research Published on May 08, 2015
As of late, it has definitely been a great time to be an investor Primero Mining Corp (PPP – Snapshot Report). The stock has moved higher by 14.1% in the past month, while it is also above its 20 Day SMA too. This combination of strong price performance and favorable technical, could suggest that the stock may be on the right path.
We certainly think that this might be the case, particularly if you consider PPP’s recent earnings estimate revision activity. From this look, the company’s future is quite favorable; as PPP has earned itself a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), meaning that its recent run may continue for a bit longer, and that this isn’t the top for the in-focus company.
BTW – Below is an interested article discussing the positive effective of currency exchange rates on the profitability of Canadian miners that is interesting:
If Canadian Producers Can’t Turn Profit Now, They Can’t Period – St Andrews Goldfields – CEO
Great points in the article about separating the survivors that can thrive with the better exchange rates, and the companies that just are dead in the water right now.
*** Re-posting the below ***
Here’s a must-read article, IMHO.
How Saudi Arabia Sets The Global (Currency) Markets
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-14/how-saudi-arabia-sets-global-currency-markets
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
LPG – I thought this was a very interesting article that you re-posted in the Chris & Doc editorial. I actually re-posted your re-post up above in the discussion about the US Dollar, Oil, and Nat Gas at the top, not realizing you also posted it down here.
Maybe someone will read it now that it is in a few different places 🙂
Gary,
I think you called it!
Excellent take on the markets!
( maybe just cause I agree? )
If anyone is interested xau opened at 2.50 yesterday and closed today at 3.70.
Its still gold, what the heck.
XAU?
I think I know what you mean…..
Frank this is from 321 gold and it is a write by Bob today on XAU, I think Al should interview him on this subject. http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty051515.html
Thanks DT……
BitGold. I heard about that being covered at PDAC since they were camped out at the Sandstorm Gold booth and getting some attention.
Interesting concept.
A good article from Bob M. was posted under the “Industry News” section of the forum today.
bitgold, xau.
sry,shoulda said.
thanks bb
I hope gold corrects soon because I am bag holding on a bear position.